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Forex Analytics and Daily FX & Economic News • 26 November 2022

Forex signals free: Forex market Analytics - graphical, wave, technical analysis online and Daily FX & Economic News
Forex signals free: Forex market Analytics - graphical, wave, technical analysis online and Daily FX & Economic News

Our daily Forex news of the Currency Market is written by industry veterans with years in trading on market Forex. Read the daily analytics, forecasts, technical and fundamental analysis from experts of the Currency, Cryptocurrency and CFD Market online.

Euro: Business as usual, time for fun

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Thanksgiving day, the closing of the U.S. stock markets and the outflow of liquidity caused the EUR/USD pair to get bored at the end of the last full week of fall. Not surprising, given the tumultuous moves before that. The dollar started the week in good condition and ended it in grief, completely giving up the initiative to the euro. Thanks to the strong data and hawkish speeches of the European Central Bank officials, the euro reclaimed its spot by hitting its 5-month highs and looks forward to important data on eurozone inflation and the US labor market.

Strong German GDP statistics for the third quarter also boosted the morale of the euro fans. Positive consumer sentiment, business activity and the business climate were followed by encouraging news from the German economy. It expanded not by 0.3%, but by 0.4%, i.e. it was more resilient to numerous troubles, including the energy crisis, than previously thought. The main driver of growth was the consumers, whose activity increased by 1%.

German GDP dynamics

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The latest data suggest that the recession in the eurozone will be shallow and short-lived, which supports the single currency. The market is optimistic, however the Institute of International Finance decided to add a minor hitch.

According to the trade association, which was one of the first to predict the parity in EURUSD, the armed conflict in Ukraine will develop into an eternal war. It will not end in 2023, and the countries that are close to it will suffer first. In particular, the eurozone, whose GDP will shrink 2% next year due to a sharp decline in consumer and business confidence. The U.S. economy will expand by a modest 1% as the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy will have a noticeable effect. The main driver of global GDP will be China, which will defeat COVID-19 and finally open its economy. However, China's efforts will not be enough. The world gross domestic product in 2023 will increase by 1.2%, which will be its worst performance since 2009.

It looks like the glass is half empty for the Institute of International Finance, which provides hope to the EUR/USD bears. If the world economy feels as bad next year as it has this year, or maybe even worse, then getting rid of the U.S. dollar is not a good idea. The greenback is the currency of the pessimists.

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In the short-term, the dynamics of the main currency pair will be determined by releases of data on European inflation and U.S. labor market. Slowing consumer prices in the eurozone and U.S. employment are the keys to reduce the speed of monetary easing by the ECB and the Fed, so EURUSD risks showing mixed dynamics.

Technically, the pair has an opportunity to continue the rally towards the 161.8% target on the Crab pattern and to win back the 1-2-3 Reversal pattern. In this regard, let's sell the euro on a breakout of support at 1.038 and 1.033 and buy it in case it grows above 1.044.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/NZD. Marathon: Kiwi starts and wins

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This week, the New Zealand dollar received substantial support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: the central bank fully justified the hawkish hopes of most experts by raising the interest rate by 75 basis points. And although the central bank implemented the base scenario, the kiwi still showed increased volatility. For instance, the NZD/USD pair updated its multi-week high to 0.6282. But in this case we cannot be sure about the success of the uptrend - the "dark horse" here is the greenback, which can significantly strengthen its positions ahead of the December FOMC meeting. That's why it is best to "monetize" the results of the RBNZ's November meeting with the help of cross-pairs that have the kiwi in it. And, in my opinion, the best option here is the AUD/NZD cross.

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Take a look at the weekly chart of this pair. The price has been falling steadily and consistently (though with corrective pullbacks) for the second month in a row, since early October. This means that we are dealing with a noticeable downtrend, which has a rather strong fundamental basis. It is expressed primarily (and mostly) in how the rates of the RBNZ and Reserve Bank of Australia are uncorrelated.

The RBA slowed the pace of tightening back in September, complaining about the side effects of aggressive policy. And recently the RBA has been giving signals about a possible pause in the first half of next year. And although these signals are only heard in the list of hypothetical options, the market is still cautious. In my opinion, it is quite reasonable.

Let's look back on the minutes of the last RBA meeting. The text of this document indicates that the central bank has no predetermined trajectory for the rate hike. Members of the central bank do not exclude two options: 1) a return to a 50 bps hike (the central bank is currently raising the rate in 25 bps); and 2) a suspension of monetary policy tightening.

In my opinion, the Australian central bank will continue to raise the rate by 25 bps at the next meetings, but will end the current cycle of monetary tightening at a lower level relative to the RBNZ.

The OCR rate is currently at a 14-year high (4.25%, RBA at 2.85%), with the New Zealand central bank still stating that "there is still a lot to do" as inflation remains at unacceptably high levels.

At the previous (October) RBNZ meeting, the central bank raised the rate by 50 bps, as it did at the previous four meetings. However, at the final press conference, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr admitted that 75 bps was among the options under consideration. At that time, the central bank was hesitant to accelerate monetary tightening, but the inflation data released a little later gave the RBNZ members determination in November. As a reminder, inflation in New Zealand soared again in the third quarter, well above forecast levels. The consumer price index rose 2.2% in quarterly terms (against a forecast of 1.5%) and jumped to 7.2% year over year, against a forecast of a slowdown to 6.5%.

Given the inflation trends, as well as Orr's hawkish rhetoric, we can assume that the monetary policy tightening will continue to slow down next year. For example, currency strategists at the UOB have revised their earlier forecasts and moved the current cycle ceiling to 5.5%. In their view, the RBNZ will reach this target in the third quarter of 2023, after which the process of monetary policy tightening will be paused, followed by a rate cut in 2024.

The RBA, for its part, is relaying softer language, while not ruling out dovish decisions. For example, at the end of its last meeting, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that members of the central bank "considered it appropriate to raise rates at a slower pace." At the same time, he noted that the members discussed the implications and costs of not raising rates, since the central bank "takes into account the pressures of higher rates and inflation on household budgets." Thus, Lowe allowed a pause in the process of tightening monetary policy.

Thus, the current fundamental background contributes to the further decline of the AUD/NZD cross-pair. The bearish scenario is also evidenced by the technical picture: the pair is between the middle and bottom lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart, as well as under all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which shows a bearish Parade of Lines signal. It is better to use any corrective surges to open short positions to the first support level of 1.0750 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The main bearish target is 1.0700 (lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the one-week timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Stubborn 4th figure: Bulls have reached the limit of their capabilities

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Bulls on the EUR/USD pair are desperately trying to rise above the 1.0400 level: they repeatedly tried to attack the 4th figure in November, but failed each time. Traders fail to consolidate the success and, accordingly, are not able to develop it in order to claim the next, fifth price level.

Their indecisiveness plays against them: as soon as the upward momentum fades, the bears come in, and they pull the price down. This "push-and-pull" takes place amid a contradictory news flow, which prohibits both bulls and the bears to dominate. In addition, the US celebrated Thanksgiving, which lasted through Wednesday, Thursday and most of Friday. The US trading floors were either closed or did work, but in a shortened period. Traders were "fishing in troubled waters", i.e. they took advantage of low liquidity and high volatility. It is obvious that next week, the market will operate the way it does normally, which means that the overall alignment of forces may change significantly, and probably not in favor of the bulls.

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The pair is now trying to stay within the framework of the 4th figure only by inertia. The market's interpretation of the minutes of the FOMC's November meeting, published on Wednesday, did not work in the dollar's favor: due to this fundamental factor, the bulls reversed the price, rising from 1.0225 to the 1.0450 target (high of the current week). But traders couldn't hold their positions and the pair went adrift. Bulls cannot move to the area of the 4th figure, bears cannot pull the price down to the area of the 2nd price level. Both parties need more information to push the pair. At the same time, all the previous information and events were played out, and some of them even twice.

Thus, the aforementioned minutes confirmed traders' assumptions that the central bank is getting ready to slow down the rate of tightening the monetary policy. Actually, it was the only message that was dovish in nature. But it was enough for the pair to surge upwards. Traders were not confused by the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke about the slowdown of monetary policy at the beginning of November. In addition, some of the other Fed members repeatedly spoke about such intentions. And after the latest US inflation data reported growth, the probability of a rate hike by 50 points at the December meeting increased up to 80%. The Fed minutes that was released on Wednesday reminded the market of such intentions - nothing more. But amid low liquidity, traders decided to win back this fundamental factor by the second round.

Given this disposition, the question arises: can the EUR/USD bulls develop their upward attack on such shaky grounds? Definitely not. Friday's price fluctuations show that the bulls are not confident in their own capabilities. Neither are the bears.

And in my opinion, the bulls are definitely losing their grip. Figuratively speaking, you won't get far with just "one minutes", at the same time there are currently no additional arguments for a large-scale growth from the pair. But the U.S. currency may receive substantial support ahead of the December FOMC meeting. According to a number of currency strategists, estimates of the terminal rate are likely to be revised upwards in December's "dot-plot" compared to the previous forecast, which was published in September. Powell admitted such a possibility following the results of the November meeting. And if similar assumptions are made by other members of the Fed (before the 10-day "hush-hush" period), we could be witnessing another dollar rally. Again, this scenario is very likely, given Powell's previous rhetoric.

In addition, the U.S. currency could receive support from the Nonfarm Payrolls report. If the unemployment rate returns to 3.5% and the growth rate of non-farm payrolls exceeds at least the 250,000 target, the dollar bulls will feel much more confident, even against the euro.

The single currency (euro) will then have to react to the European Central Bank's discussion on the pace of monetary policy tightening. There are calls for the central bank to "moderate its enthusiasm" at the December meeting, that is, to raise the rate by just 50 points, and not 75. In particular, the chief economist of the ECB spoke in favor of this scenario. By the way, the preliminary data on inflation growth in the eurozone for November will be published next week. If the report shows at least minimal signs of a slowdown in CPI growth, then the euro will be under significant pressure, as in this case the issue of slowing down the pace of rate hikes can be considered a done deal.

Thus, despite the bulls' attempts to settle within the framework of the 4th figure, they still have no good reasons to develop the uptrend at the moment. Long positions look risky - at least until the price stays above the resistance level of 1.0450 (the upper line of the indicator Bollinger Bands on the daily chart). In the medium term, it is better to consider short positions. The first bearish target is 1.0350 (Tenkan-sen line on the one-day timeframe). The main target is 1.0210 (at this price point, the bottom of the Bollinger Bands indicator coincides with the lower limit of the Kumo cloud on the H4 timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Weekly review of GBP/USD for November 21-25, 2022

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All elements being clearly bullish, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions on the GBP/USD pair as long as the price remains well above the golden ratio of 1.1761. The buyers' bullish objective is set at 1.2026. The price is likely to form a double top in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1874. So, buy above the level of 1.1874 with the first target at 1.2026 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The level of 1.2026 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. A bullish break in this resistance would boost the bullish momentum. Together with the relatively large distance to the fast-rising 100-day moving average (1.2000), there are some arguments for a relief rally in coming months on the table. The buyers could then target the resistance located at 1.2026. If there is any crossing, the next objective would be the resistance located at 1.2026. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.2026, then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.2100 today. The GBP/USD pair is at highest against the dollar around the spot of 1.1926 since two weeks - the GBP/USD pair is inside in upward channel. Since three weeks the GBP/USD pair decreased within an up channel, for that the GBP/USD pair its new highest 1.2026. Be careful, given the powerful bullish rally underway, excesses could lead to a possible correction in the short term. If this is the case, remember that trading against the trend may be riskier. It would seem more appropriate to wait for a signal indicating reversal of the trend. Be ware, the short term currently seems to be losing ground compared to the basic trend. Longer time units should be analysed to identify possible overbought items that could be a sign of a possible short-term correction. Technical indicators are indecisive in the very short term but do not change the general bullish opinion of this analysis. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1874, a further decline to 1.1761 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market. At the same time, the breakup of 1.1930 will allow the pair to go further up to the levels of 1.2026 in order to retest the double top again. It might be noted that the level of 1.2100 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top in coming hours. The general bullish opinion of this analysis is in opposition with technical indicators. As long as the invalidation level of this analysis is not breached, the bullish direction is still favored, however the current short term correction should be carefully watched. The bulls must break through 1.1930 so as to resume the uptrend.

Other outlook for the GBP/USD pair : Pound Sterling is currently trading at 1.1850. However, if the trend reverses from this point, then a possible future share price target could be 1.2026. If the price of Pound Sterling is trading above 1.2026 then possibility of upside targets getting achieved is higher around the level of 1.2100. The basic bullish trend is very strong on the GBP/USD pair, but the short term shows some signs of running out of steam. Nevertheless, a purchase could be considered as long as the price remains above 1.1761. Crossing the first resistance at 1.2026 would be a sign of a potential new surge in the price. Buyers would then use the next resistance located at 1.2100 as an objective.

Crossing it would then enable buyers to target 1.2100. Caution, a return to below 1.1761 would be a sign of a consolidation phase in the short-term basic trend. If this is the case, remember that trading against the trend may be riskier. It would seem more appropriate to wait for a signal indicating reversal of the trend. In the very short term, the general bullish sentiment is not called into question, despite technical indicators being indecisive. All elements being clearly bullish market, it would be possible for traders to trade only long positions on the GBP/USD pair as long as the price remains well above the price of 1.1761. The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.1761 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 1.1761 which represents the last bearish wave. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.1761. So, buy above the level of 1.1761 with the first target at 1.1875 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The buyers' bullish objective is set at the level of 1.2026 (last bullish wave).

A bullish break in this resistance would boost the bullish momentum. The buyers could then target the resistance located at 1.2026. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. If the trend is able to break the level of 1.2026 (double top), then the market will call for a strong bullish market towards the objective of 1.2026 this week. If there is any crossing, the next objective would be the resistance located at 1.2100. The level of 1.2100 is a good place to take profits. Moreover, the RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it remains strong above the moving average (100). Since the trend is above the 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.1761), it means the market is still in a uptrend. From this point, the GBP/USD pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 1.1761.

This is shown to us as the current price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect that the GBP/USD pair will move between 1.1761 and 1.2100 in coming hours. However, beware of bullish excesses that could lead to a possible short-term correction; but this possible correction would not be tradeable. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.1761, a further decline to 1.1596 can occur. It would indicate a bearish market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Oil ended the week in the red, and the EU countries are in disagreement

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Even though this week ended in the red, oil prices rose steadily during Friday trading. The market is still being affected by traders' concerns about China's potential oil demand.

On Friday, the January Brent crude futures price on the London ICE Futures exchange was $86.67 per barrel, or 1.56% more than the session's closing price.

By this point, the price of January WTI crude oil futures traded electronically on the New York Mercantile Exchange had increased by 2.32%, or to $79.75 per barrel.

The coronavirus no longer commands the attention of society and the media to the same extent that it did a year ago. It is gradually being forgotten worldwide as attention is drawn to more important events. The coronavirus, however, continues to dominate the front pages of major print publications and the main summaries of television news in China. As a result of its increasing prevalence, the government is forced to enact new quarantine regulations. Major Chinese cities, from the port city of Tianjin in the north to Guangzhou in the south, have strict restrictions on public life that residents are once again required to adhere to. The need for fuel has significantly decreased in these areas due to the noticeable reduction in movement.

As we all know, China is the world's largest consumer of black gold, but this time it managed to lower the key indicator of this region's demand for raw materials to a 7-month low. For the first time since April of this year, the premium of Omani oil futures relative to similar-term swaps for Dubai oil collapsed below $1 per barrel. This premium reached $15 in March when many consumers turned away from Russian oil and more toward Middle Eastern varieties.

The negotiations in the European Union over the cap on prices for Russian oil are a significant factor influencing the commodity market. According to the most recent news reports, Western European officials have the authority to set a very high price cap.

However, the Wall Street Journal reports made it clear that the EU nations are still debating the precise level at which they will set a cap on the price of Russian black gold. However, they needed help to reach a consensus, effectively ending this endeavor.

Poland, Estonia, and Latvia disagreed with the $65-70 per barrel price range that the G7 suggested. These nations' leaders are ranting that this price is excessively high and leaves Russia with an excessive income, which it must never receive. Cyprus, Greece, and Malta concurred, stating that this level is incredibly low and should not be generally underestimated. Hungary requests exceptions for itself and is categorically opposed to the measure in principle.

Some European diplomats have already stated that calling another meeting of this magnitude would be pointless if the price ceiling issue still needed to be resolved.

Additionally, Reuters reported on November 24 that the introduction of marginal oil prices from Russia by Western European nations would have almost no immediate impact on the nation's revenues.

Before that, the German TV network N-TV reported that despite the Russian Federation's energy supplies declining due to strict sanctions, the country's sales revenue increased. It would be good to approach the issue of how sanctions might impact Russia's economic situation realistically. Any supply restrictions only result in higher prices for the raw materials derived from these supplies, such as gas, coal, and oil.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis for the trading week of November 21-25. COT report. The decision of the British Supreme Court supported

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Long-term outlook.

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During the most recent week, the GBP/USD currency pair rose by 200 points. The pound had good reasons for this recently and this week, so the upward movement continues. The British pound was the first currency to demonstrate a sharp and significant break from its absolute lows, which can be viewed as the end of a long-term downward trend. Even though we believe that this departure was somewhat accidental, it still happened. Second, the cancellation of Liz Truss' initiatives to lower taxes has caused the British pound to increase. With the election of Rishi Sunak, a serious financial and economics expert, the economy will unquestionably feel better than it did under Truss. Third, Scotland was denied permission this week by the Supreme Court of Great Britain to hold an independence referendum without London's consent. Given that the court is British, the outcome was anticipated. However, there won't be a valid referendum anytime soon, and the Kingdom won't lose a third of its territory.

All of this news and events support the British pound. It should also affect the pound, given that the Bank of England has already increased its rate eight times in a row. Additionally, after nearly two years of the pair falling, it is possible to observe a very likely decrease in the Fed rate's growth rate or the same banal technical rollback. In general, the pound has many more reasons to increase in value than the euro does, even though there are also enough reasons for it not to.

Technically, on the 24-hour TF, the price is above all of the Ichimoku indicator's lines, and on the 4-hour TF, all indicators point upwards. What might cause the pound to fall again is currently unknown. The pair has grown too quickly and sharply in recent weeks, so we were expecting a downward correction this week. However, it has yet to start in any way.

COT evaluation.

The "bearish" sentiment continued to weaken, according to the most recent COT report on the British pound. The Non-commercial group closed 1,900 buy contracts and 8,800 sell contracts for the week. As a result, non-commercial traders' net position increased by 7,000. The net position indicator has been gradually increasing over the past few months. However, the major players' outlook is still "bearish," and despite the pound sterling's recent rise, it is not yet clear that it is getting ready for a protracted upward trend. And if we think back to the situation with the euro, there are serious questions about whether we can generally anticipate a strong increase in the pair's value based on COT reports.

Demand for US dollars is still very high, and the market is only waiting for new geopolitical shocks to rekindle interest in buying dollars. The non-commercial group has opened a total of 67 thousand sales contracts and 34 thousand purchase contracts. As we can see, the difference is still very significant. Remember that despite the "bullish" outlook of the major players, the euro cannot demonstrate strong growth. The bulls currently have a 17 thousand advantage in terms of the total number of open buy and sell orders. However, as we can see, this indicator also does little to support the pound. Although there are still technical reasons to doubt the British pound's long-term growth, we still have doubts.

Analysis of fundamental events.

In the UK this week, business activity indices were released, but nobody cared about them. There was nothing to react to because two of the three indices did not change from the previous month. The past week was generally mediocre in the USA. Only on Wednesday did traders have access to several relatively significant reports. All three business activity indices fell in November after declining in October. However, orders for durable goods and sales of new homes turned out to be stronger simultaneously. Unfortunately, the market was more interested in the news from the Supreme Court of Great Britain than these secondary reports. Thursday and Friday had absolutely nothing of interest. A rather dull week where the pound was the only growth driver.

Trading plan for the week of November 28 – December 2:

1) The pound/dollar pair is located above all of the Ichimoku indicator's key lines, giving it the technical support it needs to start a new long-term upward trend for the week of November 28 to December 2. The closest targets are 1.2080 and 1.2824, with 1.2080 already being reached. We continue to think that a downward correction is required, and that correction will show up on the 4-hour TF. However, for this to happen, the pair must at least drop below the moving average on the 4-hour chart.

2) The pound sterling is still forming what appears to be a new upward trend. It now has solid grounds for growth, but it has gained nearly 1800 points in just two months. Will traders still be motivated enough to buy after this? The pair's decline may resume with targets in the range of 1.0632 to 1.0357 if the price fixes back below the Kijun-sen line. Sales, though, are no longer important.

Explanations of the illustrations:\

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance /support), Fibonacci levels – targets when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.

Ichimoku indicators (standard settings), Bollinger Bands (standard settings), MACD (5, 34, 5).

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Analysis for the trading week of November 21-25. COT report. The euro currency is once again supported by the market.

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Long-term outlook.

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This week, the EUR/USD currency pair has again been trading higher. This week, the macroeconomic and fundamental background was nonexistent, but traders still bought euros. Similar trends have been observed since the start of this year, but the dollar's value was rising steadily back then. Additionally, there were valid justifications and grounds for this in the case of the US dollar. It isn't easy to pinpoint the causes of the euro currency's increase. The issue is that specific explanations can be discovered. Technical is the least interesting. Given that the downward trend lasted for two years, we can now see a straightforward technical correction without the help of significant fundamentals. Short positions are profited from by traders, which causes the pair to rise.

The assumption that the Fed's growth rate will slow down and the ECB will continue to tighten monetary policy at the fastest possible rate is another reason the euro's value is increasing. Since the Fed rate started to rise before the ECB rate, the European regulator is now catching up, which is not surprising. There are some explanations for the euro's growth, but these explanations may not always be evident locally.

The price is currently above the Ichimoku indicator's lines on the 24-hour TF. Everything also points to the upward trend continuing on the 4-hour TF. Therefore, even though we have been anticipating a downward correction for a week, the euro may continue to increase. Will we hold off? The pair's growth may continue in the medium term, but over the past three weeks, it has grown too quickly and sharply, which is why we are anticipating a pullback. Only the speech by ECB Vice-Chairman Luis de Guindos, who assured the market of further tightening monetary policy, can be singled out as one of the fundamental events this week.

COT evaluation.

The predictions made by COT for the euro in 2022 are paradoxical. They displayed the openly "bullish" attitude of professional traders for the first half of the year, but the value of the euro was steadily declining at the same time. Then they displayed a "bearish" attitude for a while, and the value of the euro also steadily declined. The euro has barely budged from its 20-year lows, and the net position of non-profit traders has turned bullish again and is strengthening. As we've already mentioned, this is taking place due to the continued high demand for the US dollar against a challenging geopolitical backdrop. Therefore, although demand for the euro currency is rising, the strong demand for the dollar prevents the euro currency from experiencing significant growth. The number of buy-contracts from the "Non-commercial" group increased by 7,000 during the reporting week, while the number of shorts decreased by 2,000. The net position consequently increased by roughly 5,000 contracts. Recent weeks have seen a gradual increase in the value of the euro, which already accords with the COT report's indications. However, the geopolitics are likely to remain the same, and there may not be enough reasons for the euro to continue to grow. The upward trend may end as the first indicator's green and red lines are very far apart from one another. For non-commercial traders, there is 113 thousand more buy than sell contracts. As a result, although the net position of the "Non-commercial" group may continue to increase, the euro may not experience a similar increase. Sales are 39 thousand more if you look at all trading categories' overall indicators of open longs and shorts.

Analysis of fundamental events.

In the European Union this week, only business activity indices were released. Although both the composite and manufacturing sectors index rose from the previous month, they still fall below the "waterline" of 50.0. Therefore, it is unnecessary to discuss any positive dynamics at this time. Luis de Guindos has spoken several times, as was already mentioned, but there is a better time for the ECB representatives' rhetoric to change or tighten. De Guindos could not provide traders with any significant and interesting information because it is obvious to everyone that the ECB will keep raising the interest rate.

Trading strategy for the week of November 28 - December 2:

1) In the 24-hour timeframe, the pair crossed all of the Ichimoku indicator's lines, giving it a genuine chance of long-term growth for the first time in a very long time. Of course, if geopolitics begins to deteriorate once more, these chances could disappear quickly, but for now, we can confidently anticipate an upward movement with a target of 1.0636 (100.0% Fibonacci) and buy (cautiously) the pair.

2) The euro/dollar pair sales are no longer significant. It would be best to wait for the price to return below the important Ichimoku indicator lines before considering shorting. There are no circumstances in which the US dollar can reverse the current trend. However, in the modern world, anything can happen at any time.

Explanations of the illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance /support), Fibonacci levels – targets when opening purchases or sales. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.

Ichimoku indicators (standard settings), Bollinger Bands (standard settings), MACD (5, 34, 5).

Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the net position size of each category of traders.

Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the net position size for the "Non-commercial" group

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Ethereum confirms its breakout

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ETH/USD retreated a little in the short term after its strong rally. The retreat was natural and now it has developed a bullish pattern. It was trading at 1,185 at the time of writing. It has increased by 2.33% from today's low of 1,170 to 1,198 today's high.

In the last 24 hours, ETH/USD is down by 1.23% and by 1.27% in the last 7 days. Bitcoin accumulates more bullish energy. An upside movement could help Ethereum to extend its growth.

ETH/USD New Flag Formation!

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From the technical point of view, ETH/USD retested the major broken downtrend line and now it has turned to the upside. In the short term, it has developed a flag pattern.

1,170 stands as a downside obstacle. The flag's resistance and the 1,215 represent upside obstacles.

ETH/USD Prediction!

ETH/USD could resume its growth if it makes a valid breakout through the flag's resistance. Still, a larger upside movement could be activated only by a new higher high, after it makes a valid breakout through the 1,215.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CHF in range pattern, 0.9393 as downside obstacle

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USD/CHF Sideways Movement!

The currency pair is moving sideways in the short term. It was trading at 0.9457 at the time of writing. It's trapped between 0.9383 (downside obstacle) and 0.9599 (upside obstacle) levels.

After jumping above the downtrend line, the price was somehow expected to grow. As long as it stays above 0.9383, it could come back higher at least towards 0.9599.

USD/CHF Trading Conclusion!

Dropping and stabilizing below 0.9383 activates a deeper drop. On the other hand, passing above 0.9599 confirm a larger growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in a new trading range.

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Green lines- Fibonacci retracement levels

After the FTX scandal and the sell off towards $15,500, Bitcoin has found some balance and is mostly moving sideways. The bulls are absent and there is not enough strength or a catalyst until now to bring bulls back in the game. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to another break down. Bitcoin is unable to bounce even higher than the 23.6% retracement level. Price is trading sideways for two weeks now creating a trading range between $15,500 and $16,900. Traders need to remain patient.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Weekly analysis on the Dollar index.

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Green lines -Fibonacci retracement levels

This week have seen intraweek lower lows and the Dollar index is closing at new weekly lows. The entire rise from 89-90 is complete and we are now clearly in a corrective phase. Price so far has almost retraced 38% of the entire rise. The 38% Fibonacci retracement level is important short-term support and we expect a bounce off this level. The 38% retracement is at 104.90. The downside potential for the near term is limited as there are increased chances of a bounce from current levels around the 38% retracement. Our longer-term view for the Dollar index is bearish because after a strong bounce we expect the index to form a lower high and then turn lower towards the 100 price level. It is too soon to talk about this scenario, it is important now to focus on the 38% retracement and to see if the index is preparing a bounce hihger.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Ichimoku cloud indicator analysis on EURUSD for November 25th, 2022.

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EURUSD is trading around 1.0397. Price remains above the Kumo (cloud). As we mentioned in our previous analysis, EURUSD is expected to pull back towards cloud support after the break above the cloud. Price is trading below the tenkan-sen (red line indicator) which makes short-term trend vulnerable to a pull back. Support by the kijun-sen (yellow line indicator) is at 1.0335 and this is where we also find the upper cloud boundary. This is very important short-term support. Failure to stay above this level will push price lower towards 1.02. The Chikou span (black line indicator) remains in a bullish mode as it is located above the candlestick pattern. So far nothing to worry for bulls in the 4 hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD analysis for November 25, 2022

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The wave markup for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears quite complex, but it still needs to call for clarification. We have a completed downward trend section consisting of five waves a-b-c-d-e. We also have a five-wave upward trend section, which has taken the form a-b-c-d-e and can already be completed. As a result, the instrument's quotes may continue to rise for a while. Still, the European currency has already begun (presumably) constructing a new downward section, and the British should do the same. Since both central banks recently increased interest rates, the news backdrop has been open to interpretation. The previous Friday, we witnessed the dollar decline against the news backdrop, which may have contributed to its potential future growth. Then came the inflation report, which decreased demand for the dollar even though the opposite outcome might have occurred. The internal wave structure of wave e was complicated by the rise in quotes during this week, but so far, only this wave has changed, not the entire trend section. This wave might have a longer form.

There is no news, and the British pound is moving more slowly now.

On November 25, the pound/dollar instrument's exchange rate fell by 25 basis points. The market's access to today's news background meant that the amplitude could have been much higher. There was not a single report or piece of news during the day. Consequently, a good week for the pound also turns out dull. Not depressing, as the pound managed to increase by 200 basis points this week despite being dull. I won't go over why there is more demand for the British again. Economic statistics have no bearing on the matter.

Next week will be completely calm in the UK. Only the USA, where Nonfarm Payrolls and the ADP report will be released, can save the day. These two reports demonstrate how the American labor market's dynamics are evolving. By the way, this dynamic hasn't been bad lately, and the US dollar can expect things to improve for itself next week. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is the only significant one and will be made public on Friday. It would help if you also traded, and one ADP report won't be able to affect the market mood four days before Friday significantly.

I'm anticipating the end of wave e, which the British claim has taken on an extended form and the upward portion of the trend. Everyone who could have spoken at the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings has already done so, and they are not happening anytime soon. A period of solitude and boredom follows. You can only navigate in space using waves.

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Conclusions in general

The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. I can no longer recommend purchasing the instrument because the wave marking already permits the development of a downward trend section. With targets around the 1.1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. The wave e, however, can evolve into an even longer shape.

The euro/dollar instrument and the picture look very similar at the larger wave scale, which is good because both instruments should move similarly. The upward correction portion of the trend is currently almost finished. If this is the case, a new downward trend will soon develop.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Short-term technical analysis on Gold for November 25th, 2022.

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Blue line- support trend line broken

Red lines- expect decline

green lines- Fibonacci retracements

Blue horizontal lines- Fibonacci extension targets

Gold price is trading around $1,750 after reaching as high as $1,760 resistance earlier today. Price has formed a lower high after bouncing off $1,727. There are increased chances that Gold's price starts a new downward move equal to the first one. Gold remains vulnerable to a move towards $1,700 where we find the 100% extension of the first leg down and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from $1,616. Major support and turn around level is the 61.8% retracement at $1,680. As long as price is above this level, bulls have hopes for a new upward move that will eventually push price above $1,790. In the near term Gold remains vulnerable to more downside.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

November 25, 2022 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trading opportunities.

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Price levels around 1.1700 has been holding prices for a short period of time before another price decline took place towards 1.1200.

Shortly after, the price zone around 1.1500 has applied significant SELLING pressure when a valid SELL Entry was offered upon the previous ascending movement towards it.

Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been moving downwards reaching the price levels of 1.0850, 1.0400, 1.0000 and recently 0.9600.

The market remained under Selling pressure until the recent bullish break above 1.0000 was achieved.

Now the market remains under buying pressure until significant downside rejection occurs around one of the key- levels probably around 1.0600.

In the mean time, any downside movement towards 1.0000 should be watched for BUYING pressure where a new upside movement can be established.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

November 25, 2022 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.

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In the intermediate-term, the pair is just above the newly visited price levels around 0.9600 that haven't been visited since 2002.

That's why, some bullish recovery was recently demonstrated especially around such an important psychological support.

The nearest supply level was located around 1.0200 where bearish rejection and a short-term SELL Entry were anticipated.

Hence, another bearish pullback to test the price levels of 0.9500 was recently executed.

Intensive bullish price action was demonstrated around the lower limit of the current movement channel. Initial bullish target around 1.0150 was already reached.

Price action around this key-level should be watched cautiously for further continuation or bearish reversal.

On the other hand, any quick bearish pullback towards the price levels of 1.0000 should be considered as a valid BUY opportunity.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

November 25, 2022 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.

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Previously, the GBP/USD pair remained under bearish pressure to challenge the lower limit of the channel around 1.3000 which failed to hold prices above.

Shortly after, a new daily low was established around 1.2150 which was bypassed few days after.

However, considerable support zone existed around 1.1850-1.1900 which has prevented further bearish decline for sometime.

However, as bullish momentum started to fade away, more bearish visits were expected to challenge these historical low levels.

Shortly after, Quick bearish decline was executed towards 1.1075 & 1.0860 where significant Fibonacci Expansion levels were located.

Based on the upcoming price action and the next weekly candlestick closure, the next target level for the GBP/USD pair can be determined.

Further bullish continuation above 1.1765 was expected in previous articles specially after the newly-established ascending bottoms around 1.1150 and 1.1750 remain defended by the bulls.

The next key-level to be visited is located around 1.2340. That's why, further bullish advancement should be expected if sufficient bullish momentum is maintained.

on the other hand, another bearish pullback towards the price levels of 1.1200 and 1.1000 should be expected for another long-term BUY Entry with initial target around 1.1500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD analysis for November 25. The wave structure of the euro still retains its integrity.

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The wave marking on the euro/dollar instrument's 4-hour chart is convincing. The upward portion of the trend has corrected itself. Initially, I believed three waves would develop, but it is now abundantly clear that there are five waves. As a result, the waves a, b, c, d, and e have a complex correction structure. If this supposition is accurate, the building of this structure may have already been finished since the peak of wave e is higher than the peak of wave C. In this instance, it is anticipated that we will construct at least three waves downward, but if the most recent phase of the trend is corrective, the subsequent phase will probably be impulsive. Therefore, I am preparing for a new significant decline in the instrument. The market will be ready to sell when a new attempt to breach the 1.0359 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci, is successful. The peak of the anticipated wave e was still present, so removing quotes from the lows this week did not violate the wave marking. As a new downward trend segment, the most recent increase in quotes can be seen as an internal correction wave. The upward portion of the trend would take on a more extended form if an attempt to break through wave e's current peak were to be successful.

A positive week for the euro comes to a dull end.

On Friday, the euro/dollar instrument decreased by 20 basis points. The range of movements during the day was low. There was no prior news context. The European currency brought a dull conclusion to the week to its asset. Recall that there weren't many significant economic developments this week. Still, despite that, the market found reasons to boost demand for the euro, which resulted in an upward wave. Since the news background is currently not entirely clear and the market does not always clearly win it back, it is still more appropriate to start from the wave markup. Only this week, on Wednesday, something interesting happened. Indices of economic activity and FOMC protocol. The Fed protocol could be "turned" in any direction, even though the indices barely changed from their October values. Therefore, I cannot conclude that the week's rise in demand for the euro was brought on by the news cycle.

Next week, everything will remain the same. One significant report on inflation in the European Union will be released. It would already be a small victory if European inflation started to decline for the first time in a very long time. But for the entire week, this is just one report. Therefore, waves serve as the foundation in this case. The current situation is as follows: in any case, we should see a decrease within wave 3 or C if the wave marking for the current period is accurate. Even though wave c will be the last one, everything will still end here. However, the decline should occur.

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Conclusions in general

Based on the analysis, the construction of the upward trend section is finished and has grown more complicated to five waves. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. There is a chance that the upward section of the trend will become more complicated and take on an extended form, but this chance is currently at most 10%.

The wave marking of the descending trend segment becomes more intricate and lengthens at the larger wave scale. The a-b-c-d-e structure is most likely represented by the five upward waves we observed. After the construction of this section is finished, work on a downward trend section may resume.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for Gold (XAU/USD) on November 25-28, 2022: sell below $1,759 (200 EMA - overbought)

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Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around 1,750, below the 200 EMA (1,759) located on the daily chart, and around the 8/8 Murray.

In the Asian session, the price of the yellow metal reached 1,760, the highest level in six days, but then made a fall reaching 1,750.

The technical rebound in Treasury yields eroded the strength of gold because it is inversely correlated. The 10-year Treasury bond yield is located at 3.70%. In case it continues to rise, it could affect the strength of the gold and it could fall to the psychological level of 1,700.

Gold failed to break sharply through the downtrend channel and the 200 EMA located at 1,759. Since then, it has been showing signs of exhaustion and it is likely to develop a technical correction towards the 21 SMA located at 1,717 in the coming days.

On the daily chart, we can see a bullish pennant pattern which, if a sharp break above 1,762 is confirmed, could be a clear signal to buy. Hence, the price could reach 1,781 (+1/8 Murray) and even +2/8 of Murray at 1,812.

We can see that gold is facing strong resistance around the psychological level of 1,800 and in the area of 1,812. This area will be the key if gold continues to rise. Once these resistances are broken, the metal could reach the highs of June around 1,843 and up to 1,900, which represents the target of the bullish pennant pattern.

On the downside, and for a reversal, gold should close below 1,717 and then, it could hit 6/8 Murray at 1,687 and could even drop to September lows around 1,620.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell below the 200 EMA located at 1,759 with targets at 1,735 and 1,717. The eagle indicator is giving signs of extremely overbought levels. Therefore, a technical correction is imminent in the coming days which supports our bearish strategy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin: Crypto community continues to look for signs of bottom

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The cryptocurrency market has historically been cyclical. Cycles were formed around Bitcoin halving.

Halving occurs every time 210,000 blocks are mined. It happens about every four years. The most recent halvings occurred in 2012, 2016 and 2020.

In between halvings, the bull market is replaced by a bear market. Given the transparent nature of most blockchain networks, it is possible to look at the on-chain data to identify patterns and similarities between the current period and previous cycles.

Bearish Cycle Bottoming Indicators

On-chain analysts, based on data from Glassnode, are looking at several potential bear market bottom signals.

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One metric is the supply profit and loss range, which shows the total supply of BTC in both profit and loss.

The values represent unrealized profit and loss since the data tracks the value of the price at the time the coins were acquired through trading or mining.

The lines showing the dynamics of these two indicators recently converged for the fifth time in the history of BTC. Previous events of this nature have occurred during bear markets near the cycle's lowest point.

The previous such convergence occurred in May 2020 during the global market crash due to COVID-19. In addition to the black swan that the coronavirus pandemic has become, convergence occurred in 2012, 2014 and 2019.

Although the coincidences lasted from six months to a year, every time the price of Bitcoin recovered, it hit an all-time high for three years.

Supply P&L bands are not a guaranteed bear market bottom indicator, but while history doesn't always repeat itself, it often plays out in a similar fashion.

Long-term and short-term MVRV

MVRV is a metric related to the ratio between realized and market capitalization of bitcoins. MVRV takes into account only positions with a maturity of at least 155 days and serves as an indicator for evaluating the behavior of long-term investors.

Like supply and loss bands, long-term holders' MVRV fell lower than short-term holders on only five occasions.

The periods are almost identical to the supply schedules that have appeared during each of the past bear markets and market crashes due to COVID-19.

Positions of short-term holders

The total number of bitcoins held by short-term holders has surpassed three million coins since cycle lows.

Short-term holders are often the most sensitive to price volatility, and the number of coins they hold is historically low at the beginning of the cycle.

There have been cases in history when the supply of short-term holders has reached similar levels. However, unlike other indicators, this has happened six times since 2011. Four of the cases are consistent with the other data described above, and in addition to these, short-term holder positions bottomed out in 2016 and 2021.

In recent weeks, one off-chain bear market bottom signal has also emerged. When Bitcoin fell from its all-time highs in the past, the point at which the mainstream publications declared "the crypto market is dead" was notoriously the bottom of the market.

Major publications declared Bitcoin dead 90 times in 2018 and 125 times in 2017. Currently, the cryptocurrency has only received 22 obituaries in 2022, so we are far from a market reversal signal if this observation is to be believed.

Three more reasons to recover

But not only the analysis of off-chain metrics allows cryptocurrency supporters to count on a reversal. Whether it's due to macroeconomic changes or just plain old bitcoin price cycles, three new reasons are being cited for why the major cryptocurrency could turn bullish from current values near two-year lows.

First in line is a theory involving a macromarket catalyst, courtesy of macro economist Henrik Zeberg.

In one of his latest tweets, he claims that Bitcoin still behaves like other risky assets, but specifically "not like gold."

The FTX scandal has weakened the correlation between BTC and stocks. However, there is no reason to dismiss the idea that this relationship will return.

Zeberg reminds that the tide lifts all boats, and if a rally in the risk asset area starts, it could send BTCUSD over $100,000.

According to another popular crypto trader, Alan Tardigrade, now is the time to pay attention to the weekly BTCUSD chart, which showed a 20-week bullish divergence.

This indicates a weakening of the momentum of the downward trend, which means that BTC may start an upward rally. This upward movement corresponds to Bitcoin's behavior after the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020.

Back to crypto-centric triggers and on-balance volume (OBV) is one of the indicators that gives an idea of possible bullish times.

OBV acts as a cumulative measure of buy and sell pressure by maintaining a running tally of volume across a given time period. It is similar to the cumulative volume delta, but includes more than just buying and selling trades.

The OBV is now showing a bullish divergence as well, causing a wave of interest in bitcoin analyst circles.

Bitcoin trader and technical analyst Mags draws attention to another important phenomenon. He notes that the RSI for BTCUSD is now showing a bullish divergence on the weekly timeframes that has never happened before, even at previous bear market lows.

"Every Bull Market Peak $BTC formed a bearish divergence on RSI followed by a bear market correction! This the first time ever BTC is printing a bullish divergence on weekly," he stressed.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading under pressure: Nike shares are rising

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Analysts anticipate that the World Cup, held this year in Qatar, will result in increased revenue for Nike and Adidas.

Trading under pressure: Nike shares are rising

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On November 9, representatives of Adidas stated that they anticipated World Cup-related sales of about 400 million euros ($415 million), or about 2% of additional annual revenue.

This scenario is likely because FIFA draws at least 5 billion viewers yearly. The biggest football event in the world is a significant opportunity for sportswear companies to sell their t-shirts, boots, and other merchandise alongside teams and individual players. Even though Adidas and Nike only sell a small portion of their football-related products, the excitement surrounding the World Cup and team t-shirts can have a ripple effect that boosts sales of unrelated products.

Of course, expectations from manufacturers sometimes pan out.

For instance, in 2018, during the month-long FIFA World Cup, shares of Adidas fell by 6%. The fact that France, the Nike team, won the FIFA tournament and the German Adidas team, which has a significant advantage, was eliminated early is likely due to this. These people were not forgotten: Nike increased 4% over the same period, outpacing the S&P 500's growth by 1%.

Brazil, France, and the United States are just a few of the 13 teams wearing Nike jerseys this year as they compete for the Cup. Only seven teams are sporting Adidas T-shirts, so the company has overtaken its rival in that category. Six more nations wear Puma T-shirts, while items from New Balance and other brands represent other nations.

Top managers don't look away from the scoreboard with the results, while football fans watch the ball fly on the field.

In the first four days of the World Cup, teams wearing Nike gear scored 15 points, while teams wearing Adidas gear scored 11 points.

The quotes were not slowed down enough to be affected. Nike shares increased by more than 1% during the competition, while Adidas and Puma shares decreased by more than 3%. Nike teams from Brazil and France, most likely to win the 2022 Cup, are currently favored in bookmakers' wagers.

Adidas will be included, though. Regardless of the brand, interest in sports games typically results in higher industry sales. And while Puma and Adidas are currently grazing the rear of the pack, their sales at the end of the month will still show a healthy surplus compared to November of last year, which bodes well for the upcoming quarterly report and stock growth.

As a result, using situational information guides can help you complete several stock market transactions successfully.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 25, 2022

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Overview

The trend of EUR/USD pair movement was controversial as it took place in the downtrend channel. Due to the previous events, the price is still set between the levels of 1.0480 and 1.0209, so it is recommended to be careful while making deals in these levels because the prices of 1.0480 and 1.0209 are representing the resistance and support respectively.

The pair is moving between the levels of 1.0480 and 1.0209. As the trend is still below the 100 EMA, a bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Consequently, the level of 1.0480 remains a key resistance zone.

Consequently, the first resistance is set at the level of 1.0480. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, and the trend is still showing strength below the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity below the area of 1.0480. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bearish trend around 1.0480 - 1.0400.

Therefore, it is necessary to wait till the downtrend channel is passed through. Then the market will probably show the signs of a bearish market. In other words, sell deals are recommended below the price of 1.0480 with the first target at the level of 1.0350. From this point, the pair is likely to begin a descending movement to the price of 1.0300 with a view to test the daily support at 1.0209.

Forecast

If the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.0480, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.0480. In this regard, sell deals are recommended lower than the 1.0480 level with the first target at 1.0350. It is possible that the pair will turn downwards continuing the development of the bearish trend to the level 1.0300, then next target 1.0209. However, stop loss has always been in consideration thus it will be useful to set it above the last double top at the level of 1.0480 (notice that the major resistance today has set at 1.0480).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Tips for November 25, 2022

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During today's Asian trading session, EUR/USD tried to continue rising in the area above the key resistance level 1.0385 (200 EMA on the daily chart). The breakdown of which and the higher long-term resistance level 1.0500 (50 EMA on the weekly chart) significantly increases the risks of breaking the long-term bearish trend of the EUR/USD.

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But so far, EUR/USD does not have such a powerful potential. Given the fact that Fed officials will continue to tighten the US central bank's monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace, most economists are inclined to believe that the 105.00 level on the dollar index (DXY) chart will hold, and the dollar will soon resume its growth. In addition to the tough policy of the Fed, this will be facilitated by the relatively better state of the American economy than in other major economies of the world, particularly the European one.

We consider the breakdown of the support at 1.0385 and resumption of EUR/USD decline to be the most probable scenario rather than an upward rally.

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In this case, a break of the 1.0385 support level will be the first signal to resume short positions on EUR/USD, and a break of the support levels 1.0325 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart), 1.0245 (144 EMA on the daily chart and the upper limit of the descending channel on the weekly chart) will be a confirmation.

As mentioned in yesterday's review, the EUR/USD is still in a global downward trend, and fundamentally, we should expect at least a renewed decline and, at most, a further fall in the pair towards the 20-year lows, when it was trading near 0.8700, 0.8600.

Support levels: 1.0385 1.0325 1.0300 1.0245 1.0116 1.0085 1.0000 0.9745 0.9700 0.9600 0.9535 0.9500 0.9400 0.9300 0.9200 0.9200

Resistance levels: 1.0400, 1.0500

Trading Tips

Sell Stop 1.0370. Stop-Loss 1.0450. Take-Profit 1.0325, 1.0300, 1.0245, 1.0116, 1.0085, 1.0000, 0.9745, 0.9700, 0.9600, 0.9535, 0.9500, 0.9400, 0.9300, 0.9200, 0.9000

Buy Stop 1.0450. Stop-Loss 1.0370. Take-Profit 1.0500

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: between key levels 1.0500 and 1.0385

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Before the start of today's US trading session, which will be shortened due to continued Thanksgiving celebrations in the US, dollar buyers decided to take advantage of its strong drop after Wednesday's publication of weak macro data and minutes from November Fed meeting.

As follows from the published minutes, most of the leadership of the US central bank support the idea of slowing down the pace of rate hikes in the near future. Market participants now expect a 50 basis point Fed rate hike in December. According to the CME Group, that probability is currently 76%.

However, the intrigue remains here: even if the pace of interest rate hikes in the United States slows down, it will still remain one of the highest among the interest rates of other major global central banks and will probably reach the level of 4.75%, and maybe even higher, in the first months of next year.

Many economists are inclined to believe that further tightening of monetary policy in the US will lead to an increase in government bond yields and the dollar, even despite the uncertainty caused by the recent publication of the Fed's pronouncements.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the ECB's recent monetary policy meeting were released on Thursday, and was ignored by market participants. It showed that several members of the bank's Governing Council would have preferred a 50 basis point rate hike rather than a 75 bps, given the prospect of a "prolonged and deep recession."

As noted above, today, buyers of the dollar are trying to take advantage of its strong fall the day before, which contributed to the growth of its quotes since the beginning of today's trading day. But, most likely, the main currency pairs will spend the day in ranges without a clear direction. Both buyers of the dollar and its sellers need new drivers, and there will be none today, both amid the absence of important macro statistics publications in today's economic calendar, and due to the short trading day in the US.

Such drivers will appear only next week. On Wednesday—the ADP private sector jobs report for November and the first quarterly update of the US annualized GDP; on Thursday—the PMI manufacturing indices; and on Friday—the Labor Department's monthly report with data for November, which will be the main focus of the financial markets.

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As for the euro, it retains the potential for growth against the dollar. As early as Wednesday, EUR/USD made an attempt to break through the key resistance level of 1.0385, and on Thursday—further growth, trying to gain a foothold in the zone above this level, which separates the bullish trend from the bearish one.

A breakout above the long-term resistance level of 1.0500 will significantly increase the risks of breaking the long-term bearish trend of EUR/USD. But for it to finally be broken, the price needs to rise above 1.1180 and 1.1200. For now, EUR/USD does not have such a powerful push upward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold. Technical analysis for November 25, 2022

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#GOLD

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By 11/25/2022, the hourly chart for gold appears in the screenshot of the graph.

Due to quotes, the price of the precious metal is currently moving to the support range of $1733.0–1734.0 for one troy ounce.

The following developments are potential in the future:

- As depicted on the chart, the support level stops the current downward trend toward $1763.0-1770.0;

- The support level is broken, and price dynamics are developing downward to $1690.0-1695.0 per 1 ounce.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

26 November 2022

Daily Forex and Economic News • Read RSS News Online

Daily Forex Trade News, Forex stock market analysis and Economic News • Read RSS News Online

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* Risk Warning:

Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk. As a result of various financial fluctuations (change liquidity, price or high volatility), you may not only significantly increase your capital, but also lose it completely. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved.

Forex Daily News
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