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EUR/USD. Smart Money. Trump Solved the Bulls' Indecision Problem

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The EUR/USD pair had been falling for eleven consecutive days. Within this decline, the bullish imbalance 9 was worked out with room to spare. This pattern has not been invalidated so far, and reactions from areas of interest can take different forms. Therefore, I continue to believe that the bullish trend remains intact. In my view, the bulls could have launched a new offensive as early as last week, when most U.S. economic data once again brought nothing but disappointment. However, the bears continued to push their position with notable persistence. The situation was resolved by Donald Trump overnight on Monday. A criminal investigation was launched against Jerome Powell, and traders clearly understand whom they should thank for this. Powell himself stated that having an independent opinion in America is becoming dangerous, and that his persecution has only one reason — his unwillingness to cut interest rates to the levels demanded by the U.S. president.

The dollar immediately began to decline, and I continue to wait for a bullish reaction from imbalance 9 until the invalidation of this pattern forces a conclusion that the bullish impulse has been canceled. Invalidation would occur below the 1.1616 level. This would not turn the trend bearish, but for some time the bears could seize the initiative.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains in place, but traders currently need new signals. Such a signal can be formed only within imbalance 9, but so far it has not appeared. If bearish patterns emerge or bullish ones are invalidated, the trading strategy will need to be adjusted. At the moment, however, there are no grounds for doing so.

The news background on Monday was essentially absent, but traders needed nothing more than the criminal prosecution of Powell and the explanations he provided shortly afterward to make decisions. In my view, this was a very predictable continuation of the story, and only one conclusion can be drawn from it — Trump seeks to control everything and everyone in whom or in which he is interested. As a result, the Federal Reserve has every chance of losing its independence, and the dollar has an excellent opportunity to fall well beyond the 1.20 level against the euro.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a new offensive for the past 4–5 months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the dovish (in any case) outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, bleak prospects for the U.S. economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Now this list also includes U.S. military aggression toward certain countries and the criminal prosecution of Powell. Thus, further growth of the pair, in my view, will be entirely logical.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, and therefore I do not attempt to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered finished. Bears would need to push the price down about 300 points to reach it, and I consider this task impossible under the current news background and circumstances. The nearest upward target for the European currency remains the bearish imbalance zone of 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• United States – Consumer Price Index (13:30 UTC)
• United States – New Home Sales (13:30 UTC)

On January 13, the economic events calendar contains two noteworthy entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be felt in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

In my view, the pair may be in the final stage of its bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the side of the bulls, bears have attacked more frequently in recent months. Still, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth. Traders also had opportunities to open new trend-following long positions after a reaction from bullish imbalance 3, after a reaction from imbalance 8, and then after a rebound from imbalance 9. This week, a second reaction from bullish imbalance 9 may still occur. The upside target for the euro remains the 1.1976 level. New long trades are acceptable if a new bullish signal is formed. If not, the long strategy will need to be reconsidered.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Smart Money. The Pound Gains the Needed Momentum

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The GBP/USD pair is showing growth on Monday that few could have expected on Saturday or Sunday. However, it became known overnight on Monday that a criminal case has been opened against Jerome Powell over excessive and unjustified spending on the renovation of Federal Reserve buildings, as well as knowingly false statements made to the U.S. Congress. After this, bears began to retreat sharply from the market, and the dollar returned to its favorite activity in the "Trump era" — falling. I would remind you that Trump attempted to dismiss the Fed Chair as early as last summer, but this is not so easy to do when you lack both the authority and legal grounds for dismissal. It took a long six months for the Department of Justice to review all documents and cost estimates and to deliver a verdict on the possible misuse of budget funds. The Department of Justice, by the way, has not yet reached such a conclusion, but the process has been launched. Now Powell will at least have to defend himself, and the markets responded with massive selling of the currency whose control (via the Fed) Trump is seeking to establish.

The "bullish" imbalance 12 currently remains the only viable pattern. If it is invalidated, this will not lead to an immediate cancellation of the bullish trend. It would only delay the pound's next ascent. However, at the moment, a new bullish signal may be formed within this pattern, as I warned last week. Bullish traders had to wait for help from Trump to move into a new offensive, but all's well that ends well. There are no other signals/liquidity grabs/patterns at this time.

The chart picture is now as follows. The bullish trend in the pound can be considered complete, but the bullish trend in the euro cannot. Both the euro and the pound may already form new bullish signals along the current trend today. Both European currencies were on the verge of a pause in the trend, but Donald Trump came to the rescue and tripped up the U.S. dollar once again. Thus, I continue to expect growth in the British pound.

There were no economic reports on Monday, but the market had plenty to react to. The criminal prosecution of Powell, which could turn into a prison sentence and a disgraceful dismissal from the Fed, is an event of global significance. To one degree or another, everyone understands that this is Trump's personal desire and revenge against the FOMC Chair in response to his refusal to pursue aggressive monetary easing. As a result, trust in the Fed will steadily decline, and with it, the U.S. dollar exchange rate.

In the United States, the overall news backdrop remains such that nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected in the long term. The situation in the U.S. remains quite difficult. The shutdown lasted a month and a half; Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January, which expires in three weeks. U.S. labor market data continues to disappoint. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the latest data suggests that the pause in monetary easing will be short-lived. Trump's military aggression, threats toward Denmark, Mexico, Cuba, and Colombia, as well as the initiation of criminal proceedings against Jerome Powell, perfectly complement the current picture unfolding in the United States. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and achieve a return to last year's peaks.

A bearish trend requires a strong and stable positive news background for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly sharp decline in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to hang like dead weight over the dollar. What exactly are the bears going to use to push the pound further down if a bearish trend is supposedly forming now? If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound sterling can be reconsidered, but at the moment there are none.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• United States – Consumer Price Index (13:30 UTC)
• United States – New Home Sales (13:30 UTC)

On January 13, the economic events calendar contains two entries, one of which is considered important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be present in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

For the pound, the picture remains favorable for traders. Four bullish patterns have been worked out, signals have been formed, and traders can maintain long positions. I see no informational grounds for a sharp fall in the pound in the near future.

The resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected as early as from imbalance zone 1. At the moment, the pound has reacted from imbalance 1, imbalance 10, imbalance 11, and imbalance 12. Today, another bullish signal may be formed in imbalance 12. As a potential upward target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, but the pound may rise much higher in 2026. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be revised, but at the moment there are no grounds for doing so.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 12th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.96 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential.

The Japanese yen received some temporary relief against the U.S. dollar following news that the U.S. Department of Justice had initiated criminal proceedings against the head of the Federal Reserve. Investors, alarmed by developments surrounding the head of the U.S. regulator, rushed to pull assets out of the dollar, as a result of which the yen strengthened temporarily. However, this short-term appreciation of the yen may turn out to be only a temporary phenomenon that does not reflect long-term trends. Fundamental factors, as well as the economic outlook of both countries, will continue to have a significant impact on the currency pair. Moreover, the criminal prosecution of the Fed Chair creates additional uncertainty in the market.

During the U.S. trading session, attention will shift to a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin. He is expected to comment on the recent decline in unemployment in the United States. His remarks may provide insight into the Federal Reserve's future actions regarding interest rates. Market participants and analysts will closely examine his every word, seeking to understand how sustainable the decline in unemployment is and how it may affect inflationary processes. If Barkin emphasizes that falling unemployment is not the sole determining factor for Fed policy and that the regulator will continue to monitor other economic indicators such as inflation and GDP dynamics, the dollar may face some pressure and continue to lose ground against the yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 158.00 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 158.39 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.39, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Continued growth of the pair can be expected in line with the trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.76 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 158.00 and 158.39 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after an update of the 157.76 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.37 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of a dovish stance by the Fed.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 158.00 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.76 and 157.38 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 12th (US Session)

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Trade review and tips for trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3422 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of this price level occurred when the MACD was in overbought territory, which led to the implementation of Sell Scenario No. 2. However, the pair ultimately failed to move lower.

During the US session, attention will shift to a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin. Barkin's remarks may shed light on the Federal Reserve's future plans regarding interest rates, although I believe it is already clear to many that the regulator will leave rates unchanged at the meeting at the end of this month. Traders and analysts will closely monitor Barkin's statements, trying to assess how sustainable the recent decline in unemployment is and how it may affect inflation. If Barkin expresses concern about the labor market, this could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance on rates, which in turn could further weaken the US dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3483 (thin green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.3520 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3520, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pound growth today can be expected to continue the morning trend.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3455 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3483 and 1.3520 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after an update of the 1.3455 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3417 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return today if Barkin takes a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3483 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3455 and 1.3417 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 12th (US Session)

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Trade review and tips for trading the European currency

The test of the 1.1677 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's further upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Amid reports of the US Department of Justice launching criminal proceedings against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, market participants intensified selling of the US dollar. The sharp increase in US dollar selling provided substantial support to the euro. Economists are expressing serious concerns about the possible consequences of the unfolding crisis. Not only the reputation of the Federal Reserve is under threat, but also confidence in the US financial system as a whole. There is an opinion that criminal prosecution of the central bank head could call into question the principles of democratic economic governance and trigger a wave of instability in global markets. At the same time, there is no need to draw hasty conclusions: a similar situation involving Powell occurred last year and ended without consequences.

Since no macroeconomic data releases are expected in the second half of the day, traders' attention will remain focused on the news already published. The situation may change slightly after a speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin, but no significant shifts are expected.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1696 level (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1729. At the 1.1729 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected after dovish comments from Fed representatives.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1674 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1696 and 1.1729 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1674 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1641 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1696 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1674 and 1.1641 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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At the time of publication on Monday, the EUR/JPY pair is trading near 184.45, showing a daily gain of 0.45%, driven by a combination of positive signals for the euro and weakness in the Japanese yen.

The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the eurozone improved in January to -1.8 from -6.2 in December, indicating a recovery in optimism regarding the region's economic outlook. This jump highlights a revival of positive sentiment, although its direct impact on the euro exchange rate remains moderate.

The Japanese yen is facing additional pressure amid news that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may dissolve the House of Representatives as early as the end of January, followed by snap elections in February. According to Kyodo News and Yomiuri, this prospect came as a surprise to markets and heightens concerns about a new wave of political instability in Japan, which traditionally weighs on the yen due to its heightened sensitivity to such risks.

Uncertainty surrounding monetary policy also persists. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed readiness to further raise interest rates if inflation-related economic indicators align with forecasts. However, the lack of clarity regarding the timing of such a move limits any strengthening of the yen.

As a result, the current balance of fundamental forces continues to favor further growth in the EUR/JPY pair, as yen weakness significantly outweighs the absence of strong growth catalysts for the euro. Today, the euro is showing the greatest strength specifically against the Japanese yen among the major currency assets.

From a technical perspective, support for the pair is located at the convergence of three moving averages around the 183.50 level, with the round 183.00 level below. The pair has encountered resistance at 184.45; above this level, it could move toward the December high at 184.95. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, suggesting that the path of least resistance for EUR/JPY remains to the upside.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Dollar: key drivers and outlook

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The dollar is declining at the start of the new week. US Treasury yields are also falling on Monday, adding further pressure on the dollar.

Last week was characterized by dollar strength amid rising inflation and ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential Federal Reserve decisions.

The recent nonfarm payrolls showed job growth of only 50,000 versus expectations of 66,000, while unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.4%. Average hourly earnings rose faster than forecast, reaching 3.8% year-over-year. Despite signs of cooling in the labor market, analysts believe the situation is far from as dramatic as initially thought.

In addition, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January, also released on Friday, rose to 54.0 from 52.9 in December, exceeding the forecast of 53.5.

Overall, last week's data support a more optimistic economic outlook and reduce the need for emergency interest rate cuts.

As is known, in December the Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25%. However, the minutes of that meeting revealed serious disagreements among committee members regarding monetary policy.

Following the release of macroeconomic data, expectations regarding the next steps by US monetary authorities were revised.

Economists now expect the Fed to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points in June and September, rather than in March and June as previously anticipated.

Meanwhile, the CME Group FedWatch tool currently indicates a 95% probability of a pause in January.

At the same time, particular attention is being paid to the criminal case against Fed Chair Jerome Powell related to the $2.5 billion renovation of the central bank's building. Powell himself has called the charges political manipulation aimed at undermining the regulator's independence and altering monetary policy. A possible change in Fed leadership could trigger a sharp decline in the dollar.

After testing the strong resistance level at 99.13 (EMA144 on the daily chart) on Friday, USDX futures declined today and at the start of the US trading session toward the support level at 98.72 (EMA50 on the daily chart). However, given that USDX futures are still maintaining upward momentum in the short term, a rebound from the 98.72–98.60 support zone (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) and a resumption of the upward corrective move can be expected.

If this scenario plays out, a more successful retest and breakout of resistance at 99.13 could create the conditions for a move toward the key resistance level at 99.60 (EMA200 on the daily chart), which separates the medium-term bearish dollar market from a bullish one. A breakout of this level, followed by a breakout above 99.90 (EMA50 on the daily chart), would confirm the revival of a medium-term bullish USDX trend, with upside potential toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel on the weekly USDX chart, which also coincides with the key long-term resistance level at 101.45 (EMA144 on the weekly chart).

In a negative scenario for the dollar, a break below the 98.60 support level would fully return the price into bearish territory, opening the way for a decline toward the strategic support level at 96.80, which separates the global bullish USDX market from a bearish one.

Conclusion

• Dollar dynamics are driven by a combination of economic data, political events, and market expectations.
• The criminal proceedings involving Powell add further uncertainty and exert negative pressure on the dollar.
• Technical levels and fundamental data will serve as key reference points for investors in the coming days.

Further developments in the dollar outlook in the near term will depend on inflation dynamics (CPI data are scheduled for release on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT, and producer inflation PPI on Wednesday) as well as statements by Federal Reserve officials, including today's speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (17:30 GMT) and New York Fed President John Williams (23:00 GMT).

The market is awaiting clear signals from US monetary authorities to determine the next steps. Current market conditions remain uncertain, but the risks of a significant strengthening of the dollar persist, especially if inflation continues to rise.

We will continue to monitor developments closely and make well-balanced investment decisions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Black swan got in dollar's way

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Every cloud has a silver lining. The lawsuit against the Fed chairman, accusing him of incompetence in overseeing the renovation of the central bank's building, became a black swan for the US dollar. Both the lawsuit itself and Jerome Powell's subsequent statement about political pressure and intimidation made a stronger impression on investors than the long-anticipated US employment report. EUR/USD managed to find a bottom and rebound from it—and how! The euro had not seen such a rapid one-day rally in more than a month.

Dynamics of bets on the US dollar against G10 currencies

The unexpected event turned everything upside down in the FX market. Prior to this, traders had been revising their views on the US dollar. A prolonged pause in the Fed's monetary easing cycle had turned it from an ugly duckling into a beautiful swan. Job growth of 50,000 and a decline in unemployment to 4.4% in December pushed expectations for a federal funds rate cut from March–April to June. Even if other central banks move toward keeping borrowing costs unchanged, a long pause in the cycle makes the greenback a favorite.

Donald Trump's impatience changes everything. The US president wants to fill the FOMC with his own people as quickly as possible in order to cut the federal funds rate to 1% or lower. At first glance, this looks unrealistic in an economy as strong as that of the United States. However, let us recall how aggressively a White House appointee on the Committee, Steve Miran, intends to slash borrowing costs. In his view, rates should fall by 150 basis points to 2.25% as early as 2026.

Dynamics and forecasts of central bank interest rates

If people like him make up half of the Committee, aggressive monetary easing will become a reality.

In my view, the story of the lawsuit against Jerome Powell is not worth a dime. First, the Fed chairman has stated that he does not intend to give in to pressure from the White House. Second, a highly influential Republican senator, Thom Tillis, has threatened not to vote for any candidate for the new Fed chair until the legal proceedings against the current one are concluded. As a result, neither Kevin Hassett nor Kevin Warsh—Donald Trump's main favorites—will be confirmed by Congress.

Finally, the Federal Reserve is not a one-man show. Decisions are made collectively. Even if the chair insists on rate cuts, the rest of the FOMC members will keep their heads. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD's rally looks overly emotional.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of the main currency pair shows an attempt by the bulls to bring prices back into the fair value range of 1.169–1.180. Success in this effort would allow EUR/USD to extend its rally. Conversely, failure would provide grounds for opening or adding to previously established short positions in the euro against the US dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD risks entering large-scale slump amid high odds of earlier-than-expected Fed rate cut

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The year 2026 began without any warm-up. As soon as the champagne had been poured into New Year's glasses, geopolitical shocks rattled markets due to the abduction of Venezuela's president by US special services and an open demand to "cede Greenland." Besides, news emerged that Fed Chair Jerome Powell was under investigation by the US prosecutor's office.

Although the investigation concerns a fairly mundane issue related to the renovation of the Federal Reserve's Washington headquarters, there is little doubt that the real reason for the pressure on Powell lies in the Trump administration's intention to push the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates. Jerome Powell is known for his cautious stance on interest rates, and this clearly does not suit Trump.

Such news is bearish for the US dollar and bullish for gold, which once again comfortably renewed its all-time high. It is unclear whether the US dollar will be able to strengthen, as the labor market report released on Friday showed that employment problems in the US may be far deeper than currently assumed.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000, slightly below forecasts, while figures for the previous two months were revised downward by 76,000. As a result, a total of 67,000 jobs were lost in the fourth quarter. Since April, employment outside agriculture and healthcare has fallen by approximately 354,000. Given such data, it is hard to seriously argue that the US economy is growing confidently.

What is clear, however, is that Trump may be more right than wrong: the current labor market situation appears even more important than still-elevated inflation and represents a powerful incentive to cut rates faster—possibly as early as January. Markets currently price in two rate cuts this year, in June and September, while January expectations imply a 95% probability that rates will remain unchanged. This confidence has helped the dollar hold its ground—but what if the market ultimately takes the employment situation into account?

For now, markets are operating under forecasts that US GDP will grow at around 2% this year, rates will be cut twice, and 10-year Treasury yields will remain near current levels. Such a scenario implies stability. However, as we can see, pressure on the Federal Reserve is intensifying, while the labor market is calling GDP growth prospects into question. The CFTC report showed that investors remain bearish on the dollar: over the week, the aggregate short position in dollars against major global currencies increased by $1.3 billion to -$11.9 billion. This imbalance is driven almost entirely by one currency—the euro—where the long position reached $23.8 billion. Against other currencies, except the yen and the Mexican peso, the dollar looks slightly stronger, but this advantage is minimal.

In other words, the key factors that could influence the dollar's exchange rate currently appear more negative than positive. Inflation has so far remained outside the focus, as price growth has not materialized in recent months despite fears that new tariffs would push prices higher. These concerns were based on calculations suggesting that higher tariffs would inevitably be passed on to consumers, as large companies could only partially offset tariffs through reduced profits and some optimization, leaving the main burden to fall on consumers.

On Tuesday, the December consumer inflation report will be released, followed by producer prices and retail sales for November on Wednesday. If inflation shows signs of slowing, pressure on the Fed is likely to intensify, making markets revise forecasts for interest rates, thus increasing pressure on the US dollar. If inflation comes in above expectations, market reaction could be even more unpredictable but would most likely result in a stronger dollar against commodity currencies, its weakness against the yen, and another record high in gold.

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Bitcoin fleeing battlefield

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Hope sustains young people and offers comfort to the old. Bitcoin fans believe that a breakout above the $95,000 resistance level would allow the cryptocurrency to soar to $200,000. Opponents of digital currencies, on the contrary, warn that a drop below $85,000 would force crypto treasuries to sell their tokens. The entire system, including BTC/USD, would collapse like a house of cards.

Under such conditions, Bitcoin's consolidation comes as no surprise. Rumors that MSCI would exclude crypto companies from its indices pushed prices lower. However, as soon as the information was not confirmed, BTC/USD rocketed higher. To the disappointment of the bulls, the rally looked more like a relief than a revival. Although Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest daily inflows in several months, investors preferred to remain cautious—and they were right.

Dynamics of capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs

One reason for traders' optimism toward cryptocurrencies was the passage of US stablecoin legislation by Congress. In reality, however, the greatest benefits were reaped entirely by stablecoins. Transaction volumes using them surged by 72% in 2025, reaching $33 trillion. USDC took the lead with a turnover of $18.3 trillion, followed by USDT with $13.3 trillion.

Bitcoin is also under pressure from a report by industry pioneer Strategy, a crypto-treasury company. Michael Saylor's firm reported unrealized losses of $17.44 billion in the fourth quarter. Its shares have fallen 70% from their record highs. At the same time, investors fear that a further decline in BTC/USD could trigger token sales by Strategy and similar companies. As a result, the cryptocurrency could collapse like a house of cards.

Dynamics of the ratio between Strategy's assets and its reserves

Bitcoin is not helped by new record highs in the S&P 500 and gold. For a long time, the digital asset was seen as something between a risky and a safe-haven instrument. It often rose during rallies in the US stock market. BTC/USD also received support from various shocks that simultaneously drove precious metals higher.

At the turn of 2025–2026, everything changed. The gold rally is now hindering rather than helping BTC/USD. Bitcoin is under pressure, among other things, due to capital flows into precious metals and US stocks. It has stopped rising, and investors have begun to redirect their money.

The same rotation is taking place in the US stock market. Shares of technology giants are being replaced by small-cap companies. Bitcoin has had a high correlation with the Nasdaq 100, so consolidation in this index contributes to the formation of a trading range in the cryptocurrency.

From a technical perspective, the daily BTC/USD chart shows consolidation in the $84,000–$94,000 range after an unsuccessful test of its upper border. The formation of a pin bar with a long upper shadow signals weakness among the bulls. A break below the fair value level at $87,750 becomes a trigger for selling.

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AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The AUD/JPY pair has maintained a confident upward momentum for the second consecutive day and, at the start of the European session on Monday, is rising toward the round 106.00 level, reaching a new high since July 2024. The current news and fundamental backdrop generally supports the bullish scenario and indicates that the path of least resistance for the pair is to the upside.

The Japanese yen remains under pressure amid uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan and rising tensions in relations between Tokyo and Beijing. Last week, China deepened its dispute with Japan by imposing restrictions on the export of dual-use goods, including a number of rare earth elements. This increases risks to supply chains for Japanese manufacturers and puts additional pressure on the yen, thereby supporting further gains in AUD/JPY.

Another source of uncertainty is Japan's domestic political backdrop. According to Yomiuri, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is considering the possibility of holding early parliamentary elections in the first half of February. This increases political risks and strengthens expectations of further yen depreciation in the near term.

In contrast, the Australian dollar is receiving support from expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the foreseeable future. The RBA rate outlook provides an additional positive impulse for AUD/JPY and generally confirms a favorable short-term outlook for the pair. However, given cautious sentiment in global markets, investors may want to approach the opening of new long positions carefully.

At the same time, the prevailing geopolitical backdrop—including the US invasion of Venezuela, threats by US President Donald Trump to use military force in response to unrest in Iran, the White House's persistent push to acquire Greenland, as well as the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict—continues to support investor nervousness. Such a risk configuration could strengthen the Japanese yen's status as a safe-haven asset and simultaneously act as a restraining factor for the risk-sensitive Australian dollar, which in theory may limit the potential for further upside in AUD/JPY at the current stage.

From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above all major indicators and has reached the round 106.00 level, which has become an obstacle to further growth. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, but the Relative Strength Index is close to overbought territory, suggesting the possibility of some consolidation or a corrective pullback.

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USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CAD pair remains under selling pressure, reflecting the weakening of the US dollar following the latest news signals. At the same time, rising political and geopolitical risks are creating a mixed backdrop for both the US dollar and the Canadian dollar.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank sets interest rates based on its best assessment of what serves the public interest, rather than on the president's political preferences. This emphasis on the Federal Reserve's independence has intensified market concerns about political pressure on the Fed, which triggered a decline in the US Dollar Index from levels last seen on December 5 and again recorded on Friday, adding further pressure on the USD/CAD pair.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he is considering a wide range of retaliatory measures in response to unrest in Iran, including the possibility of using military force. These statements came amid the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict and supported an elevated level of geopolitical tension, which, together with reduced expectations for more aggressive Fed policy easing, could become a supportive factor for the US dollar.

An additional negative factor for the Canadian currency is the intraday decline in oil prices, as the Canadian dollar is a commodity-dependent currency. Thus, the Canadian dollar provides some support to the USD/CAD pair.

Pressure on the Canadian dollar is also being intensified by signs of cooling in the domestic labor market, which reduces the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.

In the United States, the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in December, easing concerns about the state of the labor market. These data strengthened the case for keeping Fed interest rates at elevated levels for a longer period, which could limit the extent of further US dollar weakness and calls for caution among USD/CAD bears.

For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of the latest US inflation data—the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. For now, traders may adopt a wait-and-see stance ahead of these releases.

From a technical perspective, the pair has found support at the 50-day EMA, below which the main support lies at the 200-day SMA near the 1.3850 level. If USD/CAD fails to hold these levels, deeper losses may follow.

On the other hand, resistance is now seen at the round 1.3900 level, near which the 100-day SMA is located. Oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, suggesting that the pair has not yet chosen a clear direction ahead of the US data releases scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

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EUR/USD Forecast on January 12, 2026

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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Friday, but late Monday night it made a sharp reversal in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 1.1645–1.1655 level. Thus, the growth process may continue today toward the corrective levels of 38.2% at 1.1686 and 23.6% at 1.1731. A rebound from either of these levels or a consolidation below the 1.1645–1.1648 level would work in favor of the US dollar and a resumption of the decline.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish." In my view, the decline of the pair will not be prolonged or strong, but a break of the already bearish trend is now required to expect a bullish advance. According to the current chart picture, such a break would occur above the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802 or after two consecutive bullish waves.

On Friday, bullish traders once again had an excellent opportunity to launch an attack, which they failed to use yet again. US labor market and unemployment data turned out to be contradictory, but still weak. Nevertheless, bears continued to attack throughout the day rather than bulls, and the dollar continued its slow rise. In my view, there can be only one explanation for this paradox—geopolitics. Donald Trump has already carried out one military operation in 2026, which resulted in the overthrow of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Now Trump promises to overthrow the authorities in Cuba, Mexico, and Iran. Of course, there are "buts" everywhere, as the US president does not refuse negotiations and deals. The problem is that in other countries, deals imposed by the White House are not welcomed. As geopolitical tensions in the world rise again, some traders prefer to wrap their assets in the safe dollar. But, as we can see, far from everyone does so, since over the past year the dollar has no longer been the currency that everyone buys at the first sign of danger. Plus, economic data from the US rarely bring joy. Last week, we saw only one good report—the ISM index in the services sector.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. Another rebound from this zone would work in favor of the EU currency and some growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the support level of 1.1649–1.1680 would increase the chances of a continuation of the decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional players opened 3,515 long positions and closed 1,832 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies and is only strengthening over time. The total number of long positions concentrated in the hands of speculators now stands at 298 thousand, while short positions total 135 thousand. This is more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were getting rid of short positions and building up long ones. Then the "shutdown" began, and now we see the same picture: professional traders continue to increase long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for America. For example, the deterioration of the labor market. Traders fear a loss of the Fed's independence in 2026 under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation.

US and Eurozone Economic Calendar:

On January 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair will be possible on Monday on rebounds from the levels of 1.1686 and 1.1731, or on a consolidation below the 1.1645–1.1648 zone on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1612 and 1.1566. Buying became possible after a consolidation above the 1.1645–1.1648 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1731.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1492–1.1805 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

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Market at risk of renewed 'sell America' trade

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Why wouldn't the S&P 500 keep rising if the economy is fine? Bloomberg consensus forecasts expansion of about 2% in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects even better — a 2.5% increase. For investors, the glass is half full, especially as the Fed plans further rate cuts while Treasury yields remain elevated. If yields were falling, recession fears would seep into the market. So all seems well — or is it?

Dynamics of US Stock Indices

The S&P 500 is approaching the psychologically important 7,000 level, while the Dow Jones is heading for 50,000 and has recorded its best start to the year since 2003. The Russell 2000 has showed the largest weekly divergence from the broad index since 2024. Investors are snapping up small?cap stocks like hotcakes. These names are sensitive to the health of the US economy. And the economy appears healthy.

Evidence comes from recent strong US data. Employment rose by 50,000 in December, as Bloomberg economists expected, and unemployment fell to 4.4%. Investors view the cooling labor market with understanding. Mass deportations, a smaller federal workforce, and lower net migration have reduced labor supply. Under these conditions, the economy does not need to add more than 50,000 jobs to look healthy.

Dynamics of US Nonfarm Payrolls

Another reason for the frenzied demand for small?cap stocks is fading hopes for the former leaders. For the first time in several years, the Magnificent Seven underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025. The forward price?to?earnings ratio of the stocks in that group stands at 29, a very high level that does not justify their large share in portfolios. A rotation is underway, and it is hitting the tech sector hard.

You need look no further for an example. Apple shares have fallen for eight consecutive trading sessions. One more such move would tie the anti?record set in 1991. An eight?day losing streak has occurred only four times in history — in 1998, 2016, 2022 and 2025.

However, it cannot be said that skies over the S&P 500 are cloudless. Reviving the issue of the Fed's loss of independence due to the lawsuit against Jerome Powell could trigger a new wave of the "sell America" trade. If the Fed starts dancing to the White House's tune, it would not sit well with the dollar or with US equity indices.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 shows a recovery of the uptrend. However, if bears manage to push quotes below fair value at 6,910, the Anti?Turtles reversal pattern would be activated, providing grounds for selling. As long as the broad index trades above that support level, it makes sense to stick with the current buy strategy.

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Forex forecast 12/01/2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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GBP/USD Forecast on January 12, 2026

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday after consolidating below the 1.3437–1.3470 level. Today, a rebound of quotes from this zone from below will once again work in favor of the US dollar and a further decline of the pair toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3470 level would allow traders to expect a resumption of the trend toward the 1.3526–1.3539 level and the 1.3595 level.

The wave structure remains "bullish." The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the news background in the United States also leaves much to be desired. Bears have been on the offensive over the past few days, but a breakdown of the bullish trend will occur only below the 1.3403 level.

Friday's news background caused a very strange market reaction. First of all, it is worth noting the generally very weak price movements, which are uncharacteristic for days with such important economic statistics. I would also note that the US labor market data can hardly be interpreted as positive. The number of new jobs in the Nonfarm Payrolls report came in at a low level (only 50 thousand) and was even below forecasts. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, but I believe this is little consolation for the dollar and the US economy. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% a month earlier. Then the November figure was revised to 4.5%, and based on December results, the indicator declined by only 0.1%. There is no visible trend toward a reduction in unemployment. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose slightly to 54.0 points, but it was unlikely to offset the negative Nonfarm Payrolls report. Thus, I believe a decline in the dollar on Friday would have been more logical. However, what did not happen on Friday may happen this week, since the entire US news background (geopolitics, economy) cannot help but disappoint in 2026.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the support level at 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would again work in favor of the British pound and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a decline toward the support level at 1.3118–1.3140. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 6,994, while the number of short positions increased by 4,325. The gap between the number of long and short positions currently stands at approximately 76 thousand versus 107 thousand and is narrowing rapidly. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the British pound appears to have already exhausted its downside potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the British pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency may occasionally enjoy demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to pursue monetary easing to stop the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. US military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.

US and UK Economic Calendar:

On January 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. Buying can be considered today if the pair consolidates above the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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South Korea lifts limits on corporate crypto investments

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Bitcoin rose toward $92,500 today after positive news that South Korea will lift a ban, in force since 2017, that has barred companies from investing in cryptocurrencies.

Under the new rules, corporations will be allowed to invest up to 5% of their capital in BTC, ETH, and other major assets. Regulators expect that the arrival of corporate money will make the market more mature and oriented toward long?term investment.

The move by the South Korean regulator is a significant signal for the global crypto industry. It demonstrates a willingness among major economic players to adapt to new financial realities and to recognize the potential of digital assets. It is expected that similar decisions may follow in other countries seeking to attract investment and to secure leading positions in blockchain technology development, notably China.

However, it should be remembered that the influx of corporate capital also brings new risks. Greater institutional influence may increase market volatility because large players can move prices materially. In addition, corporate investors are generally more sensitive to regulation and macroeconomic factors, which could lead to sharper swings in crypto prices.

Nevertheless, over the long term, the arrival of corporate money will likely have a positive effect on the development of the crypto market. Higher liquidity, improved transparency, and the adoption of new technologies will all help strengthen the position of cryptocurrencies within the global financial system.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to $93,250, which would open a direct path to $95,000 and then to $97,300. The farther objective is the peak near $99,400. A breakout of that level would signal attempts to restore a bullish market. In the event of a decline, buyers are expected around $91,300. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $89,600, with a further target near $87,400.

Regarding the technical picture for Ethereum, clear consolidation above $3,154 would open a direct path to $3,229. The farther objective is the peak near $3,297. Surpassing that level would strengthen bullish sentiment and renew buyer interest. If ETH falls, buyers are anticipated at $3,072. A return below that area could quickly send ETH down to approximately $2,997, with a farther target near $2,887.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

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Financial firms split over the Fed's policy path

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While the euro, the pound, and other risk assets rose sharply on reports that the US Department of Justice had opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, financial institutions' views on the Fed's future policy diverged sharply after the recent release of labor?market data, reflecting uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy.

Statements by Federal Reserve official Steven Miran calling for a substantial rate reduction in 2026 contrast with more restrained forecasts from Goldman Sachs, which see no reason for urgent action.

Citigroup occupies an intermediate position, arguing that the Fed will begin an easing cycle earlier than expected because the economy is slowing faster than forecast. Morgan Stanley, by contrast, highlighted the Fed's data dependence and warned that a rapid easing of monetary policy is unlikely without serious economic deterioration.

The gap in forecasts reflects differing interpretations of current economic data and outlooks. Miran appears to focus on the restrictive effect of the Fed's current stance on the economy and thus signals a need to support growth. Citigroup likewise sees signs of economic weakness that warrant quicker policy responses.

As noted above, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley adopt a more conservative stance, arguing that the current situation does not require immediate Fed action. Goldman Sachs emphasizes the transitory nature of recent improvements in the jobs market, as shown by Friday's US labor data that put the unemployment rate at 4.4%. Morgan Stanley stresses the need for further analysis of macro data before policy decisions are made.

Overall, financial institutions display a wide range of views on the Fed's path, underscoring the difficulty of forecasting economic developments and the many factors that influence policymakers' decisions. Traders should take these divergent perspectives into account when shaping their strategies.

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now consider reclaiming the 1.1680 level. Only that would allow them to target a test of 1.1705. From there, a climb to 1.1725 is possible, although achieving that without support from major players would be rather difficult. The farthest target will be the high at 1.1740. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1640. If there is no one there, it would be advisable to wait for an update of the low at 1.1619 or to open long positions from 1.1591.

As for GBP/USD, its buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.3435. That would allow a move toward 1.3460, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is the area around 1.3488. Should the pair fall, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3403. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3373, with scope to extend to 1.3341.

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Chances of imminent Fed rate cut remain slim

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Traders have almost abandoned forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at the end of this month after the US unemployment rate fell by more than expected in December.

As a result, there was a sell?off in short?term Treasury securities: the two?year yield rose by nearly five basis points, reaching its highest level this year. Bond traders have maintained expectations for two rate cuts in 2026, with the first now seen only toward midyear.

The federal funds futures market now shows the probability of a rate cut at the end of January at under 5%. A week ago, before the release of the employment data, that probability was estimated at roughly 30%. This sharp shift in sentiment reflects investor confidence that the Fed will not rush to lower rates until it sees more convincing evidence of slowing economic growth.

Expectations about the Fed's future actions have also changed. Traders now forecast that the first cut will not occur before March and that the total number of rate reductions over the year will be smaller than previously expected.

This could prompt a re-pricing of assets and impact investment decisions across various sectors of the economy.

At the same time, it is important to acknowledge that financial markets remain dynamic and that new data could quickly alter sentiment.

Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Citigroup have pushed back their forecasts for Fed rate cuts to a later period—roughly the start of summer this year. Those firms still predict a total of 50 basis points of rate cuts for the year, despite weaker?than?expected payroll gains.

It is worth noting that Friday's labor?market data were the first to allow an objective assessment of overall employment dynamics after a six?week partial shutdown of the U.S. government from October 1 to November 12, 2025, which delayed publication of labor reports for September, October, and November.

Arguments in favor of further Fed rate cuts, it is thought, will depend on how the labor?market situation develops in the coming months.

Although the central bank cut its target range at its last three meetings in response to weakening labor?market conditions, some officials remain concerned that inflation may persist above the target. That concern is believed to limit the pace of further monetary easing.

Meanwhile, traders remain unclear about the legality of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, following the Supreme Court's Friday delay of a ruling.

Notably, on November 5, the court, according to the arguments presented, expressed doubt that Mr. Trump had the authority to impose tariffs under the 1977 statute that grants the president special emergency powers. The case is now before the Supreme Court, the court of last resort. A decision to overturn the tariffs would revive budgetary concerns, creating the risk of higher long?term yields and steeper yield curves.

Nevertheless, experts note that any market impact is likely to be fairly limited given the administration's ability to pursue alternative routes to restore many of the levies.

Regarding the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers should now consider reclaiming the 1.1680 level. Only that would allow them to target a test of 1.1705. From there, a climb to 1.1725 is possible, although achieving that without support from major players would be rather difficult. The farthest target will be the high at 1.1740. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1640. If there is no one there, it would be advisable to wait for an update of the low at 1.1619 or to open long positions from 1.1591.

As for GBP/USD, its buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.3435. That would allow a move toward 1.3460, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is the area around 1.3488. Should the pair fall, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3403. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3373, with scope to extend to 1.3341.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold Has Reached Another Record High for Several Reasons

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Prices of gold and silver hit record levels after the U.S. Department of Justice threatened the Federal Reserve with criminal prosecution, once again raising concerns about its independence. Protests in Iran supported the demand for safe-haven assets.

According to reports, the price of gold jumped to $4,600 per ounce, and silver approached $85 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the potential charge should be viewed in the broader context of threats and ongoing pressure from the administration aimed at influencing the bank's interest-rate decisions. Repeated attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration last year were one of the main factors that weakened the dollar.

The dollar's weakness seen during today's Asian session led to a sharp rise in interest in precious metals as a safe-haven asset. Traders worried about political instability and potential risks to the financial system began moving assets into gold and silver, triggering an unprecedented spike in prices.

Meanwhile, deadly protests in Iran increased the attractiveness of precious metals as a capital refuge amid the possibility of the Islamic Republic's overthrow. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he is considering possible options regarding Iran, while repeating threats to seize Greenland and questioning the value of the NATO alliance. All this took place just a week after the seizure of power in Venezuela under Nicolas Maduro.

Clearly, precious metals are now at the center of a powerful upward trend driven by a combination of favorable factors that significantly increased demand. These include lower U.S. interest rates, increased geopolitical tensions, declining confidence in the U.S. dollar, and the challenge posed to the Fed — all of which are contributing to higher gold and silver prices. More than a dozen asset managers reported that they decided not to withdraw too much from gold holdings, confident in their long-term attractiveness.

Future price dynamics for precious metals will depend on several factors, including the geopolitical situation, any actions by the Department of Justice regarding the Fed chair, and investor sentiment. In conditions of high uncertainty, it is extremely difficult to forecast the future, but it is clear that gold and silver will continue to play an important role in the global financial system as tools for risk protection and capital preservation.

Technical picture for gold

From a technical standpoint, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,591. That would allow targeting $4,647, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The farthest target is the $4,708 area. In the event of a decline, bears will aim to take control of $4,531. If they succeed, breaking that range would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push Gold toward the $4,531 low with a prospect of moving down to $4,481.

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GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on January 12. The Pound Attempts to Return to Gains

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Last Friday, several market entry points were formed. Let us look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.3432 level and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and the formation of a false breakout around 1.3432 triggered a sell entry for the pound, which sent the pair falling toward the target at 1.3403. In the second half of the day, active bull activity around 1.3403 produced a buy entry for the pound, but after a 20-pip move, buyer demand sharply weakened.

Conditions required to open long positions on GBP/USD

The pound fell on news that US unemployment had fallen to 4.4%, which pushed GBP/USD to a new weekly low. There are no fundamental UK releases today, so the morning bullish tone for the pound may persist during European trading. If downside pressure returns, bulls can count on the nearest support at 1.3403. Only if there is a false breakout will there be a good opportunity to open long positions, with a target to rise to the resistance at 1.3432, where trading is currently occurring. A breakout and reverse test of that range from above — which failed last Friday — would restore chances for GBP/USD strength, lead to stop-loss hunting among shorts, and provide a suitable entry to go long toward 1.3460, where I expect a stronger bear response. The far target is the 1.3488 area, where I will take profit. In the event of a GBP/USD decline and the absence of buyer activity at 1.3403, pressure on the pair will increase and could push it toward the next support at 1.3373. Only if there is a false breakout will there be an appropriate condition to open long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.3341 low, targeting a 30–35 pip intraday correction.

Conditions required to open short positions on GBP/USD

Pound sellers achieved a weekly low, but as the chart shows, they could not keep the market under control today. In the case of a further intraday correction, only a false breakout around 1.3432 will be a signal to sell GBP/USD, targeting a fall to support at 1.3403. A breakout and reverse test from below that range would deliver a larger blow to buyer positions, triggering stop-losses and opening the way to 1.3373. The far target is the 1.3341 area, where I will take profit; testing that level would establish a new bearish trend. If GBP/USD moves up and bears are inactive at 1.3432 — where moving averages run favoring bears — buyers will have a chance for a correction to 1.3460. I will open short positions there only on a failed breakout. If no downward move occurs there either, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3488, but only expecting a 30–35 pip intraday correction downward.

Recommended for review:

Due to the U.S. shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data are not published. As soon as an updated report is prepared, we will publish it. The latest available data are only as of December 30.

The COT report showed growth in long positions and a reduction in short positions. The latest COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions increased by 5,952 to 69,492, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 2,040 to 102,699. As a result, the spread between longs and shorts fell by 13.

Indicator signals

Moving averages

Trading is occurring around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates a possible correction in the pair.

Note: the moving average periods and price basis are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the indicator's lower band around 1.3385 will act as support.

Indicator descriptions

• Moving average — smooths volatility and noise to determine the current trend. Period — 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.

• Moving average — smooths volatility and noise to determine the current trend. Period — 30. Marked in green on the chart.

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) — fast EMA period 12, slow EMA period 26, signal SMA period 9.

• Bollinger Bands — period 20.

• Non-commercial traders — speculators such as retail traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain criteria.

• Non-commercial long positions — the total long open position of non-commercial traders.

• Non-commercial short positions — the total short open position of non-commercial traders.

• Net non-commercial position — the difference between non-commercial long and short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on January 12. The Dollar Did Not Benefit from the Data

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Last Friday, several market entry points were formed. Let us look at the 5-minute chart and examine what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1641 level and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.1641 provided a buy entry for the euro, resulting in a 15-pip rise in the pair. In the second half of the day, active seller activity around 1.1662 prompted a sell entry on the euro, resulting in a drop of more than 40 pips. Long positions from the 1.1619 level also allowed extracting roughly 20 pips of profit.

Conditions required to open long positions on EUR/USD

US nonfarm payrolls came in below economists' forecasts, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, which temporarily strengthened the dollar against several risk assets, including the euro. Today, the only eurozone report expected is the Sentix investor confidence indicator, which is unlikely to have a significant impact on EUR/USD. This preserves buyers' chances to continue the upward correction observed since the start of today's Asian trading. On disappointing data and a fall in the pair, buyers' hopes will shift to the nearest support at 1.1648, formed last Friday. Only the formation of a false breakout there will provide an entry point for long positions against the trend, with a target of a small recovery to 1.1681. A breakout and a reversal test of that range would confirm the correct action to buy the euro with a view to a larger move to 1.1702. The farthest target will be the 1.1722 high, where I will take profit. In the case of a decline in EUR/USD and absence of activity around 1.1648, pressure on the pair will return and may lead to a larger downward move — in that case, bears will try to reach the next interesting level at 1.1619. Only if there is a false breakout will it be an appropriate condition to buy the euro. Opening longs immediately on a bounce will be from 1.1591 with a target for an intraday upward correction of 30–35 pips.

Conditions required to open short positions on EUR/USD

Sellers did everything possible on Friday to continue the bear market, but demand skewed strongly during today's Asian trading, which may change the pair's intraday direction. In case of euro recovery, the first manifestation of bears is expected only near resistance at 1.1681. A false breakout there will provide an entry point for shorts targeting support at 1.1648, where moving averages run and play on the bulls' side. A breakout and close below that range, followed by a reverse test from below, would be an additional trigger to open shorts toward 1.1619, which would restore the bear market. The farthest target will be the 1.1591 area, where I will take profit. If EUR/USD moves up and bears are inactive at 1.1681, buyers will get a good chance for a larger recovery. In that case, short positions are best postponed until the larger level at 1.1702. Shorts from there should be taken only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open shorts immediately on a bounce from 1.1722, targeting a 30–35-pip downward correction.

Recommended for review:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data have not been published. As soon as an updated report is prepared, we will publish it. The latest available data are only as of December 30.

The COT report showed increases in both long and short positions. However, these data are not suitable for building the current strategy, so they do not require special attention. The COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions rose by 1,559 to 294,738, while non-commercial short positions jumped by 3,985 to 137,273. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 585.

Indicator signals

Moving averages

Trading is above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a possible correction in the pair.

Note: the period and price basis of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the indicator's lower band at around 1.1619.

Indicator descriptions

• Moving average — smooths volatility and noise to determine the current trend. Period — 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving average — smooths volatility and noise to determine the current trend. Period — 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) — fast EMA period 12, slow EMA period 26, signal SMA period 9.
• Bollinger Bands — period 20.
• Non-commercial traders — speculators such as retail traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain criteria.
• Non-commercial long positions — the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Non-commercial short positions — the total short open position of non-commercial traders.

• Net non-commercial position — the difference between non-commercial long and short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for January 12. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade review and trading tips for the Japanese yen

The test of the 157.82 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move above the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips.

Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by only 50,000, below economists' forecasts, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, which allowed the dollar to rise temporarily against the yen. This dissonance in economic indicators sparked a wave of analytical commentary. The market, on the one hand, saw a positive signal in the unemployment decline, indicating US economic resilience; on the other hand, the weakness in employment data raised concerns about the overall strength of economic growth. The absence of fundamental reports from Japan and a pause in commentary from Bank of Japan officials will allow the dollar to continue rising against the yen until policymakers again sound the alarm over the currency's weakness.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point around 158.16 (the green line on the chart), with a target at 158.59 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.59, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important: before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 157.96 while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect moves toward the opposite levels 158.16 and 158.59.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a break below 157.96 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 157.63, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25-pip countermove from that level). It is better to sell at the highest possible price. Important: before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 158.16 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect declines to the opposite levels, 157.96 and 157.63.

What is on the chart

Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument

Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely

Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument

Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely

MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones

Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for January 12. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade review and trading tips for the British pound

The test of 1.3420 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved well above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential.

Despite weak US employment data, the dollar held its ground. Clearly, the labor market is sending contradictory signals, which adds uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Investors now wonder how the Fed will react to this ambiguous picture: will it continue to follow a gradual rate-cutting path, or will it adopt a wait-and-see stance while assessing additional data?

Today's absence of important economic releases from the UK suggests that the morning rise in the pound could continue. Close attention should be paid to Bank of England officials' remarks, since any signal of a policy shift, especially toward easing, could quickly cool pound-buying enthusiasm.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3439 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3475 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3475, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip move from that level). Expect pound strength only within the morning trend. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3420 while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect rises to the opposite levels 1.3439 and 1.3475.

Sell scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break of 1.3420 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid drop in the pair. Sellers' key target will be 1.3388, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip move from that level). Pound sellers may assert themselves within a new bearish market. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3439 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect declines to the opposite levels 1.3420 and 1.3384.

What is on the chart

Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument

Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely

Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument

Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely

MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones

Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders for January 12. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade review and trading tips for the euro

The test of the 1.1635 price occurred when the MACD indicator had moved far below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro.

Friday's US nonfarm payrolls disappointed economists' expectations, but the simultaneous decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% triggered a short-term strengthening of the dollar. However, the initial dollar rise driven by the favorable unemployment reading soon gave way to relative stability, then to moderate weakening. Investors took into account that slowing employment growth may constrain US GDP growth and, consequently, the Federal Reserve's plans to cut the key rate. In the near term, the market's focus will be on new US economic data and Fed officials' comments on the future path of monetary policy.

As for European reports, only the Sentix investor confidence indicator for the eurozone is expected today. This indicator typically has little market impact, but it is worth monitoring as one element of the mosaic that reflects overall investor sentiment. Geopolitical risks remain in view. The situation around Venezuela, Greenland, and Cuba remains tense, and any signs of escalation could cause volatility in financial markets.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy scenarios

Scenario 1: Buy the euro if the price reaches around 1.1677 with a target of 1.1705. At 1.1705, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expect euro strength after strong data. Important: before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario 2: Buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1653 while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Expect rises to the opposite levels 1.1677 and 1.1705.

Sell scenarios

Scenario 1: Sell the euro after reaching 1.1653. The target will be 1.1624, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return after weak reports. Important: before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario 2: Sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1677 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expect declines to the opposite levels 1.1653 and 1.1624.

What is on the chart

Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument

Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely

Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument

Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely

MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones

Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.