Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

Daily Forex Trade News, Forex market analysis and Economic News online. In this section you will find a fundamental and technical analysis of the Forex market for trading online and Economic News.

Follow the publications of our experts, and you will be able to objectively assess the situation not only on the international currency market Forex, but on all other world trading platforms. With the help of professional analysis of the foreign exchange market, you can invest your money.

Forex market analysis
Forex signals free: Forex market Analysis-graphical, wave and technical analysis online

April 16, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations

.

analytics6079b78d19695.jpg

By the end of February, Near the price level of 1.2250, Significant SELLING Pressure was found, leading to the current downside movement.

The price zone around (1.1990) corresponds provided some temporary buying pressure.

However, this recent short-term upside movement was terminated due to lack of sufficient buying momentum.

Another downside movement was expressed towards 1.1840. Breakdown below it triggered another downside movement towards 1.1780-1.1750 which failed to hold for a while.

Further bearish decline extended towards 1.1710 which provided BUYING Pressure while being tested.

Hence, an upside pullback was expected to pursue towards 1.1840 which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure.

The current Upside breakout above 1.1840 could enhance further movement towards 1.1990 (being tested now) where selling pressure maybe anticipated.

Until then, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped between the significant key levels between 1.1840 and 1.1990.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Netflix stock price trapped in a trading range for nearly a year

.

Netflix stock price is trading around $546. The stock price of Netflix has been trading inside the trading range of $575-$466 since May of 2020. Despite being in a bull market where indices make new all time highs, the stock price has been consolidating inside this range. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Why? Because we have confirmed boundaries that if broken will provide a new trend.

analytics6079b8e9bb2df.jpg

Green rectangle- upper range boundary

Red rectangle- lower range boundary

Price is in a neutral trend as is mainly moves sideways. Trading near the green rectangle resistance area is an opportunity for bearish positions as a rejection could bring price back towards the red support area more than $100 lower. If price breaks above the green resistance area, stops are activated and the exit out of such trading range will provide an important bullish signal and will turn us bullish with a target around $675-$700 at least. Short-term trend is at $538 and if broken could lead to a pull back towards $500 at least if not lower.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

April 16, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

.

analytics6079b79c812ac.jpg

In late February, a recent bullish spike has pursued towards 1.2150 - 1.2175 (backside of the broken channel limit) where bearish rejection was previously anticipated.

Further bearish decline was expected to pursue towards 1.1960 and 1.1850. Both levels got broken to the downside, soon enough to enable further bearish decline afterwards.

However, a Short-term sideway movement was initially demonstrated above 1.1850 enabling a bullish movement to take place towards 1.1970-1.2000 which constituted a prominent Supply Zone.

Shortly after, the EURUSD pair has launched the current bearish decline below 1.1820. Further bearish continuation is expected to pursue at least towards 1.1690 or at least few pips above.

Around 1.1690, a high probability bullish trade could be taken around it, a bullish pullback was expected to occur towards 1.1850.

This recent bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1880 was suggested for bearish rejection.

However, failing to apply sufficient bearish pressure has enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.2000 where price action should be watched for possible bearish rejection and a valid SELL Entry.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

April 16, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

.

analytics6079b79386c3a.jpg

Sideway movement with slight bullish tendency was demonstrated while approaching the price levels around 1.3700-1.3750.

Thats's why, Bearish pullback was initiated. However, the GBP/USD pair has failed to maintain sufficient bearish momentum.

Strong bullish movement was expressed, Upside movement was expected towards the new limit of the current movement channel around 1.4150-1.4200.

Obvious Bearish rejection and a SELL Entry was suggested around this price zone. Since then, the GBPUSD pair has been moving sideways with some bearish tendency.

Short-term outlook has turned into bearish after the GBP/USD pair could maintain movement below the price zone of 1.3820-1.3900 which corresponded to (61.8%-50%) Fibonacci zone. However, the pair has recently failed to drop below the price level of 1.3670.

Another Recent bullish trial for retesting of 1.3900 should have given a valid SELL Entry as suggested in previous article.

Bearish Persistence below 1.3820 can favour bearish decline at least towards 1.3600 where the lower limit of the depicted movement channel can be tested.

Bearish breakout below 1.3600 will enhance further bearish decline towards 1.3500 and probably 1.3400.

On the other hand, until now the GBPUSD pair remains trapped between the ascending trend and the key-level around 1.3850.

Another bullish breakout above 1.3900 will probably liberate further bullish movement towards 1.4200.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold price continues higher approaching our first target area

.

Gold price gave us two bullish signals yesterday. The first one was when price broke above the short-term trend line resistance at $1,746 and the second one and most important one was when price broke above $1,758 major horizontal resistance.

analytics6079b76044a1a.jpg

Green lines - medium-term bearish channel

Red line- Fibonacci expansion targets

Gold price is trading above $1,770 and is approaching our first target area of $1,788-$1,800. Since Gold price double bottomed at $1,677 and recaptured $1,730, we have been talking about the possibility that price will make a bigger bounce towards the upper channel boundary. Gold price seems to be following this scenario. This scenario could unfold into a bigger move higher specially if price breaks above $1,800-$1,820 and does not fall below $1,730 again. New all time highs are a possibility that should not be ignored.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Short-term view on XRP/USD for April 16, 2021

.

XRP/USD earlier today broke down below our first trend line support and reached our first horizontal support area and first pull back target area of $1.50-$1.30. With a low at $1.41 and having reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement level of the breakout move, there are increased chances that we will not see a deeper pull back.

analytics6079b5dca25df.jpg

Red rectangles - horizontal support areas

Red lines - Fibonacci retracements

Green lines - triangle pattern (broken)

Blue line- second trend line support

XRP/USD is testing the second blue trend line support and the first horizontal support area. Price has reached already the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The minimum pull back it could do after such a sharp rise from the triangle break out at $0.55 has been achieved. Resistance is at $1.80-$1.84. As long as price is below this level we could see another move lower toward $1.10. Today's low at $1.41 is important short-term support. There are signs that price is bouncing and the correction might be over. However confirmation will come only with the break above the green resistance area. Short-term traders could try new long positions with $1.40 as stop, because a break below $1.40 will most probably lead to $1.10. Longer-term view remains bullish XRP/USD and any pull back is considered a buying opportunity as long as price is above $0.55.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Litecoin reached our target and remains in bullish trend.

.

LTC/USD reached our $286 target and has pulled back towards $270. Trend remains bullish as price is inside the bullish channel after the triangle break out. The triangle break out was an important bullish signal and our next target as we said in previous posts, is now at $332.

analytics6079b4bd5cd93.jpg

Blue lines - triangle pattern

Green lines - bullish channel

Litecoin continues making higher highs and higher lows. Support is at $257 and as long as price is above this level we remain optimistic for the next few sessions at least. Our next target is at $332 and if we reach that level we believe new all time highs will also come. If price breaks out of the green bullish channel to the downside, then we expect price to find support around $210-$180.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Is EURUSD forming a right hand shoulder?

.

EURUSD is trading just below 1.20 after a strong bounce from 1.17 low. Our bounce target area was around 1.20-1.2050 where we now find important resistance. If price makes a top at current levels and turns towards 1.17, then we will have a complete formation of a head and shoulders pattern.

analytics6079acb53e736.jpg

Blue lines - potential head and shoulders pattern

Red line -resistance

Green line - potential neckline support

The red line resistance at 1.21-1.2140 is of key importance. As long as price is below this level I expect prices to turn lower. EURUSD has many chances of reversal from current level. Major support remains at 1.17 area where we also find the green support trend line. Breaking below 1.17 will activated the head and shoulders pattern with a target of 1.13-1.10.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USDCAD rejected at 1.2550-1.26, vulnerable to a move towards 1.23

.

USDCAD continues trading inside the downward sloping wedge pattern since August of 2020. Trend remains bearish as price continues making lower lows and lower highs. We warned in previous posts that in order for trend to change, price needed to move above 1.26-1.2650 level and out of the wedge pattern.

analytics6079ab8be5a9f.jpg

Red line - upper wedge boundary

Blue line - lower wedge boundary

USDCAD made several attempts to push above 1.26 over the last two weeks but price got rejected. Price is now moving lower making new short-term lows confirming we are still in a bearish trend. Next downside target is at 1.23 as long as price is below the red upper boundary of the wedge pattern. As long as price is below 1.26-1.2570 we remain bearish. A break above 1.26 will be a bullish signal and one that provides a good risk reward ratio for bulls. Upside target is at 1.2718 at least if price breaks above 1.26.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for Bitcoin BTC/USD, for April 16, 2021: Sell below 62,250

.

analytics6079a675d4ab8.jpg

The Bitcoin in the morning of the American Session in 4-hour charts we see a bearish movement of the leading cryptocurrency, it is located below the SMA of 21, and could find support at the EMA of 200.

Apparently some countries are against cryptocurrencies such as Turkey, which will prohibit cryptocurrency holders from using their digital assets for payments.

According to a Friday announcement from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, the ban will go into effect on April 30, making any crypto payment solutions and partnerships illegal.

The bank stated that any direct or indirect use of crypto assets in payment services and electronic money issuance will be prohibited.

This could play against BTC, although we believe that it will not affect the global Cryptocurrency market, but it could be the beginning of other countries adopting this same regulation.

On the technical level, we note that the BTC / USD, is making a correction after having made a new maximum in the 64,000 zone, the immediate support is located in the area of 57,587.

Our recommendation is to sell below 62,200, given that the SMA of 21 is located there, and while the BTC trades below that level, the correction is expected to continue until it finds support at the EMA of 200 (57,587).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for Dow Jones #INDU for April 16, 2021: Buy above 33,900

.

analytics60799f1fe50d5.jpg

The Dow Jones futures, #INDU, rose 0.2% before the opening of the American session. In the 1-hour chart, we note that it maintains a strong upward trend.

The 1-hour chart shows that the Dow Jones, #INDU, is located above the SMA of 21 located at 33,920, and faces a daily resistance at 34,000, as the bullish momentum is clearly prevailing. It could surpass this mark and reach 34,200 levels in the short term.

On the other hand, a technical bounce at the 21 SMA would be a good opportunity to buy with a target at 34,000 and 34,200.

On the contrary, a break of the daily support around 33,880, could be a sign of a change in trend and will open the possibility to sell with objective at the EMA of 200 located at 33,560.

Our recommendation for now and until next week is to buy for up to 33,900, with targets up to the new highs made by the Dow Jones. Do not always forget a good risk management.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for GBP/USD for April 16, 2021: Sell Below 1.3815

.

analytics60799850a1d47.jpg

The GBP / USD pair, in the morning of the American session is trading, within an uptrend channel. In the European session, it reached the low of 1.3714, from there it is bouncing, approaching the 200 EMA located at 1.3810.

The 4-hour chart shows that GBP / USD is located above the 21 SMA, which lacks directional strength anyway. Still, the pair needs to consolidate above 1.3815 for further bullish momentum to the 1.3916 resistance zone.

On the other hand, as the GBP / USD now faces resistance near the top of the bullish channel and the zone of the 200 EMA, it is likely that there will be a correction to the 21 SMA located at 1.3760.

The British pound has been consolidating all this week below the 1.38 level, this is a sign that there could be a new downward movement to the 1.36 and 1.35 area in the medium term.

A consolidation above 1.3850, an advance of the bullish momentum is expected to the psychological level of 1.40 and 1.41 in the short term.

We recommend selling below the 200 EMA 1.3810 with targets at 1.3760.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for EUR/USD for April 16, 2021: Sell Below 1.1988

.

analytics607993fc57a00.jpg

We note in the daily chart that EUR / USD has reached a key resistance level, around 1.1988. In the month of March, the pair has formed a double top, and the price is now touching the same level for the third time.

If EUR / USD, in daily charts, consolidates above the psychological level of 1.20, there could be a bullish move to the 1.2086 area.

As the eagle indicator in 4-hour charts is showing an overbought signal, we expect there to be a correction to the monthly support at 1.1910.

Given that EUR / USD is now below this resistance level, our recommendation is to sell with targets at 1.1910.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC analysis for April 16,.2021 - Second downside target at the price of $60.100 has been reached. Potential for the rally

.

Further Development

analytics60797b070b1d3.jpg

Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that the BTC reached my second target from yesterday at the price of $60.100.

Watch for intraday long opportunities due to oversold condition....

Additionally, Stochastic oscillator is showing oversold condition...

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis of Gold for April 16,.2021 - Brekaout mode on Gold and potential for test of $1.805

.

Eurozone February trade balance €18.4 billion vs €22.0 billion expected

Latest data released by Eurostat - 16 April 2021Prior €24.2 billion; revised to €28.7 billionThe trade surplus narrowed considerably with exports seen down 2.5% on the month while imports grew by 3.4% on the month in February. The setback to exports sees it drop to levels seen in October but at least imports are slowly moving back towards pre-virus levels, though still some way off for the time being.

Further Development

analytics607979c21322b.jpg

Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold , I found that there is the breakout of the multi day balance and lots of the buying power.

My advice is to wtach for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the upside swing target at $1.804 and $1.8015.

Additionally, there is the breakout of the upper BOllinger line....

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD analysis for April 16 2021 - Buyers in control and potential for the upside breakout and test of 1.2100

.

Eurozone March final CPI +1.3% vs +1.3% y/y prelim

Core CPI +0.9% vs +0.9% y/y prelimThe preliminary report can be found here. No change to initial estimates as the headline reaffirms a jump, largely due to base effect adjustments. The core reading is seen weaker than February so that does little to convince of sustained upwards price pressures for nowFurther Development

analytics6079782f78fa2.jpg

Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR , I found that the are in control and we got high odds for breakout of the important pivot at 1.1990.

My advice is to wtach for buying opportunities on the pullbacks with the upside targets at 1.2035 and 1.2100.

Additionally, EUR is on the extended run to the upside... Key Levels:Resistance: 1.1990Support levels: 1.2035 and 1.2100

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for AUD/USD. Australian dollar may show jump

.

analytics60794336c94ac.jpg

The Australian dollar, that was in the shadows for a long time, showed impressive performance. Recently, the currency has been trying to rise amid favorable market conditions.

Experts have noticed that commodity currencies are gaining in value against all other currencies. The surge is caused by such factors as a rise in stock indices, higher prices on hydrocarbons, and a long-lived weakening of the US dollar. The Australian dollar could become the leader in the race of commodity currencies. At the moment, the Aussie is gaining in value in an attempt to recoup losses.

As a rule, the Australian dollar's attempts to reach new highs are successful. On Friday, April 16, the AUD/USD pair was trading at the level of 0.7738. A day earlier, it hit a new four-week high jumping above 0.7759. At the moment, it is trading in green. Analysts suppose that bulls of the Australian dollar can make use of the favorable market conditions. If the pair consolidates at the current level, they will enter the market. Some experts say that it is enough to consolidate within the range of 0.7650-0.7675 to jump to a new target of 0.8000 or even higher.

analytics6079438f526e4.jpg

The Australian dollar was strongly supported by Australia's labor market data. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in March, the number of jobs advanced by 70,700 exceeding forecasts. At the same time, the unemployment rate slid to 5.6% from 5.8%. Positive labor market reports pushed the Australian dollar above other commodity currencies. However, the situation was spoiled by the remark that the current increase was mainly caused by a jump in part-time jobs. Moreover, 20,000 full-time jobs were previously eliminated.

However, analysts remain positive supposing that the Australian economic recovery will somehow offset the negative information. Thus, in recent months, employment has been rising. Economic activity reached the highest levels in the last 70 years. According to the data from Westpac and the University of Melbourne, in April 2021, the consumer confidence index advanced by 6.2% to 118.8 points. It is the largest reading in the last 11 years.

Economists at TD Securities also provide positive forecasts for the Australian dollar. They predict that if the pair climbs above the resistance level of 0.7677, it will have all chances to rise further. The next target is located at 0.7750 that is on the way towards the psychological level of 0.8000.

China's macroeconomic reports have a significant influence on the AUD/USD pair. The fact is that it may affect both the Australian and global financial markets. Earlier, when the price of iron ore rose in China, the Australian dollar surged. Notably, China is the main trade and economic partner of Australia. Moreover, it is the main consumer of raw materials. Under the current conditions, the Australian dollar highly depends on the Chinese economic health.

Positive macroeconomic data from China allows the Australian dollar to spread wings. The same situation took place at the end of this week. On Friday, April 16, China reported on a starlight rise in its economy. In the first quarter, China's GDP showed a record jump of 18.3% on a yearly basis. During the given period, retail sales in China soared by 34.2% (the forecast was +28%, y/y) year over year, although the industrial production growth slowed down to 14.1% on a yearly basis. Analysts believe that this will provide commodity currencies, especially the Australian dollar, with an upward impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Dow Jones crosses 34,000 for first time

.

On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed the 34,000 mark for the first time in history amid the release of corporate reports and macroeconomic statistics.

analytics60795fd144774.jpg

The S&P 500 indicator followed suit, reaching its 22nd record high of this year. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 each have gained 11%. Many market participants are confident that the rapid pace of vaccination against the coronavirus and substantial government assistance will provide US stock indices with strong gains in the long term.

Thus, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index reported an increase of 0.9% to 34,035.99 on Thursday, positing the 20th highest closing price of this year. The S&P 500 rose by 1.1% to 4170.42, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3%, soaring to 14,038.76, off 0.4% from its February record.

analytics60795ffde9462.jpg

At the same time, the shares of Bank of America and Citigroup Inc decreased by 2.9% and 0.5% respectively.

The shares of Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Facebook Inc added an average of 1.5-1.9%.

Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc stock sank by 1.7% following the initial public offering (IPO), pursued the day before. For a short period of time, the company's market capitalization has exceeded $100 billion.

Meanwhile, the shares of AppLovin Corp, the U.S. mobile app and gaming company, closed down by 18.5% on its first day of trading. The IPO valued the company at $28.6 billion.

Despite the fairly high stock prices, in the near future, the tech giants will continue to receive the necessary cash reserves to justify the current level of quotes, experts are sure. In addition, as the economy expands, stock indices will most likely advance further.

According to internal statistics, US retail sales jumped by 9.8% in March. As part of the government assistance program, many American families received $1,400 stimulus checks that considerably supported households.

Meanwhile, over the past week, initial jobless claims in the United States plummeted to 576,000 from 769,000 in the prior week. Earlier, the US Federal Reserve called the unemployment rate one of the most important factors affecting the decision on interest rates.

Despite upbeat statistics, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note dipped to 1.531% from 1.637% on Wednesday, thus highlighting rising demand for government debt. By the way, the indicator slipped below 1.6% for the first time since late March. Analysts are confident that this decline can be attributed to the news that the Fed does not intend to tighten monetary policy.

As for the main indicators in other regions, the European Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 0.5%, while most major Asia-Pacific indices dipped. Thus, the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.4%, and South Korea's Kospi increased by 0.4%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Hot Forecast for 16 April, 2021

.
  • EUR/USD fades Thursday's pullback and reclaims 1.1980.
  • The dollar looks offered amidst steady yields on Friday.

analytics60795df61412f.jpg

The single currency reverses the previous day's pullback and regains the composure, lifting EUR/USD back to the 1.1980 region.EUR/USD's rally remains well and sound and leaves behind Thursday's downtick on the back of the offered bias surrounding the buck, which is in turn sponsored by declining yields in the US bond markets.

From a technical perspective, at the moment, the index is gaining 0.16% at 1.1983 and faces the next hurdle at 1.1993 (monthly high Apr.15) followed by 1.2000 (psychological level). On the other hand, a breach of 1.1900 round figure mark will lead en route to 1.1700 (2021 low Mar.31).

A sustainable breakout of recent swing high should open the door to further gains with the next target at the 50% fibonacci retracement . A surpass of this area allows for a move to the key 1.2000 hurdle which coincides with the bearish parallel channel resistance. If EUR/USD break closes below recent low at 1.1860, we will see bearish traders pushing the market towards 1.171 support and further below awaits the lower boundry of the channel

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for April 16, 2021

.

analytics607959dc5d383.jpg

Overview :
  • The EUR/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.1937 yesterday.
  • The level of 1.1937 coincides with 78% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as major support today. Since the trend is above the 78% Fibonacci level, it means the market is still in a uptrend.
  • From this point, the EUR/USD pair is continuing in a bullish trend from the new support of 1.1937.
  • This is shown to us as the current price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect that the EUR/USD pair will move between 1.1937 and 1.2059.
  • On the H1 chart, resistances are seen at the levels of 1.2059 and 1.2109. Also, it should ne noticed that, the level of 1.1937 is representing the daily pivot point.
  • Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.1937 providing a clear signal for buy deals with the targets seen at 1.1993.
  • If the trend breaks the resistance at 1.1993 (first resistance). Thereupon, it is possible that the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.2059 in order to test the daily resistance 2 - next target 1.2109.
  • However, stop-loss is to be placed below the price of 1.1865.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD H4 price analysis , 16 April 2021

.

analytics60795c3a3b936.jpg

GBP/USD has declined to 1.3700 as the US dollar has regained ground amid a downbeat market mood. Covid vaccine concerns and unresolved Brexit border issues continue to undermine the pound sterling. US Consumer Sentiment data is on tap today.

The 4H chart is showing that cable is off its highs, but remains in range. However, momentum has turned to the downside and the GBP/USD pair is back below the 1.3800 round mark. Bears are taking the upper hand.

Beneath the March low at 1.3670/63 would see the broader risk turn lower again with support then seen next at the September at 1.3641, then 1.3567. Whilst we would expect a hold here at first, below in due course can see a move back to the long-term base, potentially 1.3458/52

On the upside, any increase to 1.3919 which is needed to see a 'double bottom' base complete to reinforce our view the decline from the 1.4237 late February peak remains a corrective phase only within the core longer-term uptrend

Support awaits at the daily low of 1.3718, followed by the critical triple-bottom of 1.3670. Losing that line would open the door to a rapid fall toward 1.36. The esistance level is at 1.3750, a support line from earlier in the week, then followed by 1.3780 and 1.3810.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: USD balancing between stocks and bonds while EUR has not crossed its key threshold yet

.

analytics60787a288eeca.jpg

No sooner had investors believed that the Fed would not tighten its monetary policy, than the regulator gave them new hints to think about.

During his speech at a virtual conference organized by the Economic Club of Washington, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that markets should not focus on the regulator's short-term predictions.

According to Jerome Powell, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates until the end of 2022. However, everything will depend on the incoming data.

J. Powell also noted that the QE will be phased out much earlier than the rate hike starts.

While the comments from the Fed Chairman did not come as a big surprise to investors, they can be considered a warning.

As a result, the greenback paused its decline after reaching four-week lows around 91.57.

Fed Deputy Chairman Richard Clarida mentioned yesterday that the US central bank may give a hint about curtailing the volume of asset purchases during its next meeting, along with the publication of updated forecasts.

This brings traders back to the idea that the first changes in the regulator's policy may occur before the end of this year.

Previously, market participants relied on the strengthening US dollar and significantly reduced investments in US government bonds, fearing that a sharp and prolonged rise in inflation will force the Fed to tighten monetary policy earlier than expected.

However, repeated statements from the Fed that the price pressure would be temporary reassured investors and forced the greenback and US Treasury yields to retreat from the multi-month peaks reached at the end of last month.

analytics60787ce1787a0.jpg

According to analysts at Bloomberg, the idea that the US dollar started to depend on the bond yields looks rather weak.

"This month, the euro has appreciated more than 2% against the greenback and continued to rise following better-than-expected US inflation data. This is another hint that the US dollar is more related to stocks than to anything else at the moment," they said.

COVID-19 is no longer a major risk for the US stock market, according to a recent survey by Bank of America. The effect of raising corporate taxes from 21% to 28% will become evident over time and will have a medium-term nature.

Investors are now optimistic about potential financial results of the largest US companies and their prospects until the end of the year.

However, analysts warn that after strong corporate results for January-March, it will be quite difficult to show growth in the next quarter. So, in the future, reality may not come in line with expectations. Thus, the current period may be the end of the growth cycle that began in March last year. It is likely that during the summer season, the US stock market may enter a phase of correction.

Saxo Bank strategists point out another important factor for the US dollar, bonds, and the broader market - the US Treasury's reduction of its deposit in the Federal Reserve account. Now the deposit amounts to about $925 billion, but by the end of June they it should be reduced to $500 billion. This is a hefty portion of liquidity, so traders will need to pay attention to the specified period.

These events will take place later. Meanwhile, the key US stock indexes keep hitting new record highs, and the greenback continues to remain under pressure.

The US dollar index is currently hovering at around a 50-day moving average at the level of 91.60. A breakout of this mark will take the dollar bears to 91.30. This is the level where the lows of mid-March are located.

Experts at Westpac believe that a breakout below the 91.30 mark will signal an earlier return of the medium-term bearish trend on USD.

"Apparently, the greenback is at a crossroads. In the coming days, the US dollar index should withstand the support near the 91 mark to ensure that there is still a chance for the US dollar to grow amid strong US economic data. In the coming months, the dollar may face more pressure from the key economic indicators," experts said.

"The American currency is still trying to advance amid expectations of outstripping economic growth in the United States compared to other developed countries," they added.

"While profit-taking seems almost inevitable after the recent sharp rise in quotes, the fundamental picture for USD looks much better than at the beginning of the year," Rabobank said.

Analysts predict that the EUR/USD pair will trade in the range of 1.1700-1.2000 in the coming months.

analytics60787c2412b23.jpg

The leaders of the ECB and the Fed, Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell dismissed fears of market participant about inflation, maintaining hope for a faster economic recovery.

Nevertheless, the markets need more weighty evidence, so they turn to the economic calendar.

While the US statistics released on Thursday exceeded expectations, the EU figures did not impress the EUR/USD bulls.

Germany's inflation report for March showed that the annual inflation rate rose in line with forecasts by 1.7%.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the volume of retail sales in the country accelerated at a record pace since May 2020 by 9.8% in March compared to February, while analysts expected to see a rise of 5.9%.

The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended on April 10 fell by 193,000 to 576,000. The figures fell to the lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, difficulties with the vaccination process against COVID-19 in Europe continue to weigh on the euro.

Recently, the EU has announced that it will receive 50 million additional doses of Pfizer's vaccine in the second quarter of 2021. However, the uncertainty around vaccination remains high as the case of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is still not resolved.

In addition, Denmark has completely stopped the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine, so other European countries may follow suit.

This means that it will take more time for the population to form immunity to the disease. This also means that the EU economic recovery will take longer as well.

EUR/USD has gained more than 2% since the end of March and has already climbed above the 200-day moving average. However, strong resistance at 1.1990 blocks its way to the upside.

On Thursday, the pair tried to break through this level twice, but these attempts were unsuccessful.

The euro/dollar pair has reached the 1.1990-1.2014 pivot area. According to strategists at Commerzbank, the pair needs to break above this area to ease the downward pressure.

"EUR/USD tested the 1.1990-1.2014 area which is a reversal level. In order to head for 1.2243, bulls need to break through this level. At the moment, the rally still looks like a correction. If the pair is stuck in the area of 1.1975-1.2014, markets will then focus on the downward trend," experts noted.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for April 16, 2021

.

analytics60795064e5869.jpg

Overview :
  • After breaking the support at 1.3794. The GBP/USD pair has set strong resistances at the levels of 1.3794 because the support has become a resistance on the 15th of April 2021.
  • So, the price has already formed the strong resistance at the level of 1.3794 and the pair probably will try to approach from it in order to test it again.
  • However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.3794, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 1.3794 (the level of 1.3794 coincides with the ratio of 50% Fibonacci).
  • Moreover, the RSI is becoming to signal a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strong above the moving average (100) and (50).
  • Thus, the maket is indicating a bearish opportunity below the 1.3794 level so it will be a good sign to sell at 1.3794 with the first target of 1.3729.
  • It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 1.3670. The daily strong support is seen at 1.3670.
  • On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the price of 1.3918.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Daily Video Analysis: GBPCAD facing bearish pressure, potential for further rise!

.

Today we take a look at GBPCAD. Combining advanced technical analysis methods such as Fibonacci confluence, correlation, market structure, oscillators and demand/supply zones, we identify high probability trading setups. Price is facing bearish pressure as it holds under the descending trendline resistance. We could see a reversal at our Buy entry level, in line with horizontal pullback resistance, and further downside towards take profit levels, in line with 61.8% and -27.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Stochastics has also just reversed from the upper resistance level where it has reacted from before, in line with our analysis.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBPCAD reacting below descending trendline resistance! Drop incoming!

.

analytics607953759ffdd.jpg

GBPCAD reacting below descending trendline resistance. A short term drop below our 1st resistance at 1.72977 towards 1st support at 1.72371 could be possible.Stochastic is testing resistance where price reacted in the past as well.

Trading Recommendation

Entry: 1.72977

Reason for Entry:

78.6% Fibonacci retracement, Descending trendline resistance

Take Profit: 1.72371

Reason for Take Profit:

61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Stop Loss: 1.73555

Reason for Stop Loss:

Graphical swing high

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

17 April 2021





Forex Daily News
$1500 No Deposit StartUp Bonus
Work From Home (Remote Job)
No deposit bonus
Forex News & Daily Market Analysis
No Deposit Bonus

Work From Home (Remote Job)
$1500 No Deposit StartUp Bonus