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EUR/USD: Why did Trump fail in his attempt at uprising?

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Donald Trump is due to step leave office in mere 4 days (if nothing extraordinary happens). He will make influence neither on politics nor the economy nor international relation of the US. Therefore, he will not be present in the news and will play no role as a market catalyst, at least for the currency market. Before he steps down, I decided to pay tribute to the policymaker who ruled the largest global economy for 4 years, broke down international treaties, built the wall on the border between the US and Mexico, slammed journalists, cursed in the public, lied nearly 15 times a day according to official estimates, etc. Eventually, Donald Trump ventured into an uprising. This is how he ended up, denying the outcome of the presidential election on November 3. Certainly, this social riot cannot be defined as a full-fledged coup, for example like it happened in the USSR in 1991.

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In fact, over the recent 4 years Donald Trump used to "forget" that companies and news agencies did not have to obey his orders. They belong to private entrepreneurs like himself. Actually, he had this last-minute thought that prevented him from orchestrating a real coup on January 6. From my viewpoint, the main cause of all his troubles is mass media. As it was said above, lots of companies in the US are a private property. It means that they perform according to the will of their owners. As soon as Donald Trump took office back in 2016, he behaved as though all mass media in America (including social networks) are state-owned so that he could say whatever he wants. Apparently, he expected journalists to echo his words without trying to contradict him. In fact, Donald Trump was at the helm of the US, not North Korea or China or the USSR where all news agencies have always been under strict supervision of the state. Therefore, 95% of newspapers, periodicals, and TV companies ganged up on him immediately and launched a game. They rushed to find out a lie in the president's words and debunk it. So, for the most part of his term Trump did not use mass media to inform people or make an announcement.

He used to swear at mass media and attacked it. In turn, they published materials to his disadvantage. Trump preferred to deliver his ideas through social platforms. None of the previous presidents exploited social media so actively. Soon after he became the President, people were mulling over whether he was ruling the country or sending messages on Twitter or Facebook. Later, it became clear that a team of PR assistants were acting on behalf of the President. In this case, all those messages lost their value as 10-15 messages were posted every day. In fact, the Internet was flooded with Trump's tweets. Moreover, Trump did not always use social networks to communicate with the population. He used them to accuse, make loud statements, argue with the Democrats, and attack the WHO and China. Trump believed that by these moves he would shape and manipulate public mood. In practice, it turned out that for a very long time no one has taken the president's accounts seriously. Moreover, at the end of the presidential term, Twitter and Facebook simply blocked his profile. Do you see the point? Social networks have blocked the president's account forever!!! Can you imagine this in Russia or China? Thus, those sluggish attempts to keep power in hands using the same methods that led Trump to the heavy defeat were doomed to failure.

Second, Trump didn't have enough support. In fact, from the very beginning. Looking back to the 2016 elections, few believed in Trump's victory as Hillary Clinton was taking the lead. Since then, the level of support for Trump in political and government circles has been waning every year. Only few prominent policymakers and top officials openly clashed with Trump. However, it was clear that Trump failed to achieve complete obedience from his party fellows. Hence, the government had to deal with frequent reshuffle of resignations among top officials. Again, this is not North Korea. Later, the Pentagon was not going to blindly follow Trump and his whims. The Defense Department simply refused to introduce a regular army to suppress rallies and protests across America as Trump demanded. The country's chief immunologist, Anthony Fauci, is not going to indulge Trump and assent to him on serious issues of national health. Jerome Powell was not going to cut rates simply because Trump ordered him to do so and in some other countries they are lower than in the United States. Well, the Democrats were ready to confront any absurd decision and proposal from Trump. Thus, he had to forge ahead with some initiatives through the lower house of Congress.

Thus, the last months of Trump's rule and his pathetic attempts to stay in power only caused laughter. All the courts, which Trump's team filed to recognize the election as a fraud, denied such lawsuits. The US Supreme Court, to which the state of Texas and 17 other states appealed with a claim (!!!) on fake election results in other (!!!) states, also dismissed the claim. Interestingly, Trump relied on the Supreme Court when he appointed a new Chief Justice to replace the untimely deceased Ruth Ginzburg. Trump has not provided a single evidence of his charges against the Democrats. Moreover, he did not try to do something that would really add weight to his words. If the election was indeed rigged, why did Trump act like a beaten puppy for the past 2 months? Why didn't he really provide any proof of falsification to the public? Why didn't he declare martial law? Why didn't he block the Internet, didn't arrest anyone (at least for election violations), didn't impose a curfew? Precisely because Trump himself knows that he lost the elections and no one will follow his orders. Moreover, Trump understands that Americans no longer want him to remain president. The Capitol assault looked just like the last attempt to change something, and it was also the final nail in the coffin of Trump's political career.

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Trading tips on EUR/USD

The technical picture of EUR/USD reveals that the pair has bearish prospects. Last week, the US dollar rebounded off the lowest level in 2.5 years and asserted strength across the board. Late Friday, the pair passed through 1.2097. Some analysts assume that the US currency has some prospects for recovery, though the fundamental background in the recent days suggests weakness of the US dollar. Curiously enough, the market has got used to unpredictable trajectories. In the last months of 2020, the US dollar was extending weakness without any weighty reasons. To sum up, the greenback has been following the overall downtrend. Hence, you are recommended to trade EUR/USD downwards with the bearish target of 1.2002.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD continues lower closer towards our target of 1.2050

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We have warned bulls after the break of the bullish channel that was combined with a bearish RSI divergence. Since then we were talking about a pull back towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement level.

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Green lines - bullish channel broken

Red lines - bearish divergence

EURUSD is approaching our first target at 1.2050 and the 38% Fibonacci level. Trend is bearish in the short-term as price has started making lower lows and lower highs. A first bounce could come from this Fibonacci support at 1.2050 but bulls need to be very cautious.

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Red line - bearish divergence

Green line - support trend line

Taking a look at the bigger picture in EURUSD bulls should be very cautious as we could be at the early stages of a bigger pull back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the longer-term upward move from 1.06. Support by the long-term upward sloping green trend line is at 1.1940. The 38% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.1685. Of course it is too early to talk about such a big pull back, but the chances of this happening are increasing as price falls.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold price breaks below the Kumo (cloud) support

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Gold price is trading below $1,840. Gold price is breaking out and below the Daily Kumo and this is a bearish sign. The end of the week finds Gold price near its lowest levels and this is not a good sign for next week.

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Gold price remains vulnerable to a move towards $1,800-$1,750. Gold price has resistance the upper cloud boundary at $1,865. We expect today's price action to be followed by more downside over the next couple of weeks with Gold pushing below $1,750. Only if bulls recapture the cloud resistance we can discard the bearish view. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bullish wedge pattern about to break in USDCAD

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USDCAD remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. However we need to warn bears that all this could soon end and we might see a strong upward reversal. We observe two important signs that must not be ignored.

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Red lines - bullish wedge

Blue line -bullish divergence

USDCAD has formed a downward sloping wedge pattern. Resistance is at the upper wedge boundary at 1.2735. A break above this level would be the first bullish signal after a long time. This could be the start of a reversal and a strong bounce towards 1.30-1.33. The RSI is also providing a warning to bears. The RSI is not making lower lows. Bulls can expect a bullish start of the year for USDCAD. Bears need to be very cautious as trend my soon change.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Dollar may slowly regain losses as Biden promises to flood economy with money

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Investors seem to have put the USD bearish trend on pause.

The greenback is showing its biggest weekly gain since November last year, and its recent recovery from three-year lows calls into question the prospects of its weakening in 2021.

"While the baseline scenario continues to be a significant acceleration in the global economy, which has historically been positive for most currencies against the US dollar, there is now reason to discuss whether the dollar will be as weak as many expect," said strategists at Westpac.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the regulator remains committed to an ultra-soft monetary policy. Powell's promise to print money and keep interest rates low for as long as necessary has sent the dollar tumbling for a while.

However, the greenback recovered quite quickly after the recently elected US President Joe Biden presented a draft of measures to support the national economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The measures announced include $415 billion to fight the coronavirus and vaccinate the population, about $1 trillion in direct assistance to households, and $440 billion for small businesses and communities most affected by the pandemic.

"We must act and act now," said President-elect Joe Biden.

Investors were happy about the possible adoption of a stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion, but US stocks retreated amid the announcement of details of how the new US administration intends to stimulate the national economy.

The main problem, experts say, is that it will be difficult for Democrats to take all measures given the fragile majority in both houses of Congress.

"The reality is that while Democrats have now increased their power by winning Georgia's runoff last week, that power has its limits, and details of the fiscal stimulus package unveiled on Thursday suggest the overall size will be cut before it will receive the support needed to get through the Senate," said MUFG.

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Market sentiment took a turn for the worse when Joe Biden hinted at a tax hike, saying that everyone should pay their fair share. The falling stocks boosted demand for the safe dollar.

"Let's see how quickly the market will return to positive dynamics and what will happen after the inauguration of Joe Biden, because protest demonstrations are scheduled in the United States this weekend. There is a risk of serious riots - both on these days and on the day of the inauguration itself on January 20. Although the downward trend in USD is still strong, we are not ready to return to it tactically," Saxo Bank said.

The greenback will continue to rise on Friday. It is currently trading more than 0.5% higher at 90.7 points.

Risk appetite has been worsened by reports that the outgoing Trump administration has increased tensions with China by including nine Chinese companies, including smartphone maker Xiaomi and the airline company Comac, on the banned list of American investors.

The single European currency is poised to close its worst week since late October as the outlook for the region leaves a lot to be desired.

France has imposed a curfew until 6 pm almost throughout the country. Germany, like individual regions of Spain, is considering the possibility of tightening quarantine restrictions. In Italy, former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi sparked a coalition crisis.

On Friday, the main currency pair reached its lowest levels since the beginning of the year.

"EUR / USD remains under pressure as the news is dominated by the slow roll-out of the EU vaccination program and political issues in Italy. The pair broke through key support around 1.2130, which quickly drew attention to a potential test of key support around 1.2060," strategists at TD Securities noted.

"Apparently, at this stage, market participants focused on negative developments related to the euro. The minutes of the ECB meeting published yesterday reflected the discussion of the rate of the single currency, which only intensifies the pessimism caused by political problems in Italy and the COVID-19 pandemic. The EUR/USD pair needs a clean breakout of 1.2100 or 1.2220 in order to determine the direction," OCBC Bank specialists said.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

January 15, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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The EURUSD pair was trapped below the previous key-level (1.2000) until bullish breakout occured to the upside recently in December.

Further quick bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2150 just as expected after failing to find sufficient bearish pressure at retesting of the backside of the broken channel around 1.1970-1.2000 which corresponds roughly to Fibonacci Level of 0%.

Recently, the pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level).

That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article.

Currently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 then 1.2000 is needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum to pursue bearish movement at least towards 1.1860 and 1.1770.

This would confirm the ongoing bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern by breaking below the pattern neckline around 1.2160.

On the other hand, Conservative traders should look for price action around the price zone around 1.2000-1.1975. This price zone stands as a Demand Zone which can offer bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

January 15, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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In December, the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) have prevented further bullish movement for a few weeks.Bearish target was projected towards 1.3300. However, the pair has failed to pursue towards lower targets.

Instead, a bullish spike was expressed towards 1.3480-1.3500 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel has previously provided temporary bearish pressure on the pair.

Shortly after, another bullish spike has recently been demonstrated towards 1.3600 where the upper limit applied considerable bearish rejection again.Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating above the key-level of 1.3400.

As expected, bearish reversal was recently initiated around 1.3600. A quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.3200.

However, the pair has failed to maintain bearish decline below 1.3200 in the previous attempt. Instead, bullish persistence above 1.3400 invalidated the bearish scenario for the short-term.

Another temporary bullish movement is being expressed to test the previous WEEKLY High around 1.3700 and probably towards 1.3770 where bearish rejection and a possible SELL Entry are suggested.

Intermediate-term outlook can turn into bearish if only the EUR/USD pair could break below and maintain movement below 1.3400. If so, a quick bearish decline initially towards 1.3200-1.3150.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

January 15, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.

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By the end of November, Signs of BUYING Pressure have been initiated around the depicted price zone of 1.1800-1.1840.

Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick upside movement.The pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1990 initially which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1920 which constituted a temporary KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair.

That's why, another episode of upside movement was expressed towards 1.2160 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a considerable bearish reversal signal.

Three weeks ago, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around 1.2265. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur.

However, the EUR/USD pair has failed to pursue towards lower price levels. Instead, the pair has spiked above the depicted Weekly HIGH around 1.2270 before the current bearish rejection was initiated around 1.2350.

Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2250 - 1.2200 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.2170 then 1.2150 which correspond to a previous congestion zone as well as a prominent key-zone.

Persistence below the price level of 1.2170 should turn the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhance further downside decline towards 1.2080 and probably 1.2040.

Trade Recommendations :-

SELL Positions that were suggested around the price levels of 1.2300 are already running in profits.

Stop Loss should be lowered to 1.2230 to secure more profits while Next Target levels should be projected towards 1.2080 and 1.2040.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Dollar rebound may not be stopped

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Traders who took many short dollar positions late last year are now biting their elbows. As capital inflows to the United States increase, the demand for the U.S. dollar may grow. The dollar will be bought on recovery, as it was bought last year in panic due to the pandemic.

For investors, the dollar has long been the main component of a safe strategy. Now it can be useful in the context of economic recovery. Many analysts predict that the U.S. economy will end the current year with more significant results than the past one.

As soon as there are real signs of a recovery in the U.S. labor market and increased spending, market players are likely to rush to take advantage of this progress. With strong growth in the US economy, investors will begin to abandon foreign stocks in favor of American ones. To do this, they will need dollars. It is these capital flows that are expected to contribute to the growth of the greenback

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The economic recovery is having an impact on real returns. After the turmoil in Washington last week, nominal yields jumped. Meanwhile, core inflation should remain stable, as opposed to growth embedded in profitability.

This could help to increase the real profitability and attractiveness of the U.S. in comparison with markets that have negative returns. In addition, it encourages players to buy U.S. Treasury and corporate bonds, rather than buying local securities. For the dollar, this is a direct path to the status of the main currency in the framework of the carry trade.

"Japanese investors who sold foreign bonds two weeks in a row for the first time since May, could earn by hedging the yield of 10-year bonds in yen at the level of 64 bp, providing an increase of 60 bp compared to domestic 10-year Japanese government securities," wrote strategists at Societe Generale on Thursday.

However, there is no question of a quick way up for the dollar. Given the rapid influx of stimulus, which Joe Biden officially announced on Thursday, the U.S. currency may first weaken its position. The economic recovery will force investors to abandon the dollar in favor of risky assets, such as EM sector currencies. It's unlikely to last long. Another jump in yields and the potential leadership of US securities will bring investors back to the U.S. In the near future, the ratio to the dollar should be revised. According to analysts, the rebound of the dollar will continue this year.

Recall that, after the dollar went into a prolonged fall last year, traders began to actively open short positions. The USD index is currently trading at its lowest levels since April 2018.

A recent survey of Bank of America clients showed that the short sale of currency became the most popular transaction after long positions in technology stocks. At the same time, the CFTC report reflected the strongest "bearish" positioning for the dollar in 10 years.

At present the dollar looks oversold, moreover, the technical picture indicates that the dollar is about to turn up after a multi-month decline.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC analysis for January 15,.2021 - Downside movemetn on the way with the objectives at $33.000 and $28.500

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Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is rejection of the key pivot resistance at $39,300 and that we might see downside movement towards $33,000 and $28,515.

Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the targets at $33,000 and $28,515.

Key resistance is sett at $39,600.

Additionally, there is the bear cross on Stochastic oscillator, which is sign for the further downside movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin to trade at $ 40,000?

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At the time of writing, the rate of BTC / USD has dropped slightly to $ 37,583.

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But a couple of days ago, Bitcoin was trying to resume its bullish momentum, however, the movement was very weak as compared to its previous rallies. Despite that, analysts believe that it will still grow, albeit very cautiously. Some even suggest that by the end of this day, BTC will rise to $ 42,000, which is a very bold forecast.

In 2017, Bitcoin already reached such a high level, but following it was a large-scale correction. Now, the climb towards this value is clearly speeding up, which is toning up investors.

According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, the cost of bitcoin has risen to $ 39,966, but has fallen very quickly. The lowest rate yesterday was $ 37,653 not $ 31,000, which means that market participants are very actively supporting the cryptocurrency, even despite the massive liquidation this week.

Most likely, Bitcoin will not drop sharply even amid expectations of massive economic stimulus. Just yesterday, President-elect Joe Biden announced his plans of introducing a $ 2 trillion-worth of incentives to the United States. The package provides $ 2,000 direct payments to Americans, which will help accelerate inflation. Accordingly, such will increase demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.

To add to that, the European Central Bank called on other countries to regulate bitcoins, since they are speculative assets.

Therefore, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, is confident that by August 2021, bitcoin will cost at least $ 115,000. He believes that the launch of the digital yuan and other events in the digital world will have a favorable effect on the cryptocurrency market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis of Gold for January 15,.2021 - Symmetrical triangle in the creation. Watch for the breakout to confirm further direction

.US Dec advance retail sales -1.4% vs 0.0% expected

Prior was -1.1% (revised to -1.4%)

  • retail sales ex auto -1.4% vs. -0.2% estimate
  • retail sales ex auto and gas -2.1% vs. -0.3% estimate
  • retail sales control group -1.9% vs. +0.1% estimate

This is a poor report and the November numbers were revised significantly lower as well.

  • November retail sales ex auto revised to -1.3% from -1.1%
  • November retail sales ex auto and gas revised to -1.3% from -0.8%
  • November retail sales control group revised to -1.1% from -0.5%

So much for that strong Target same-store sales report.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that there is symmetrical triangle in creation and I would watch for the brreakout to confirm further direction....

The breakout of the support at the price of $1,836 will confirm test of $1,819

The breakout of resistance at the price of $1,862 will confirm the test of $1,899.

1-Day relative strength performance Finviz

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Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Natural Gas and Coffee today and on the bottom Platinum and Sugar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for GBP/USD for January 15, 2021: Triple Top

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The GBP / USD pair, in this American trading session, is trading below the SMA of 21, after having tested the 1.37 resistance zone for the third time, it is now falling, and we expect it to consolidate in the support zone. 1.3549.

On the 4-hour chart if you observe, the GBP / USD pair has formed a triple top, this technical pattern is a sign that the pair in the medium term, could have a deeper decline to the levels of the 200 EMA. around 1.3427.

The key level of 1.3660, there is strong resistance, this level guarantees that in the medium term the pair can continue its decline, if in the next few hours we see a pullback towards this level, it would be a good selling opportunity.

The GBP / USD pair is now trading below the SMA of 21, while it remains below this level, the downward pressure will continue to exist.

Our recommendation is to sell below the 21 SMA, and below the strong resistance at 1.3360, with targets at 1.3585 and 1.3545.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD analysis for January 15 2021 - Bullish divergece on the horuly time-frame and potential for teh rally towards 1.2140

.US January Empire Fed +3.5 vs +6.0 expected

Prior was +4.9

  • New orders +6.6 vs +3.4 prior
  • Prices paid +45.5 vs +37.1 prior
  • Six month conditions +31.9 vs +36.3 prior
  • Employment +11.2 vs +14.2 prior

If you're a pessimist, you can start to see the makings of a crest in this report and a continued build-up in inflationary pressures.

Further Development

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Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that the sellers got exhausted at the level of 1,2116 and that there is potential for the rally towards 1,2140.

My advice is to watch for buying opportunities with the potential targets at 1,2140 and 1,2165.

Additionally, there is bullish divergence on the 1H time-frame, which is another sign for the fuhrer upside movement.

1-Day relative strength performance Finviz

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Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got Natural Gas and Coffee today and on the bottom Platinum and Sugar.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 1,2140 and 1,2160

Support levels: 1,2116

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD: The US dollar is currently oversold.

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The US dollar has long been considered a safe currency for global investors. Therefore, any situation where the economy is injected with a massive financial aid leads to the dollar doubling in rate.

However, the negative side of this is that as capital inflows to the United States increase, the dollar risks of becoming oversold.

At the moment, the US has already pumped trillions of dollars into the economy, all of which is aimed at supporting the country amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Aside from that, vaccination is underway, so as a result, the economy has started to climb up again. Financial markets favor these steps because with it, investors choose to trade economically sensitive assets.

For instance, according to the Bank of America, the volume of short positions on the dollar reached the highest level in December. And, according to the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), the rate on bearish positions (USD) is at a 10-year level.

Of course, there is still a chance that traders will run to the dollar. But so far, what is more possible is a rebound in short positions. To add to that, forecasts about a trend change should not be made yet, especially since speculative activity, at the moment, is extremely high.

What happened on the trading charts?

EUR / USD has moved from 1.2130 to 1.2175. Traders attempted to break 1.2130, but due to negative data on the US labor market, the movement slowed and the euro turned back to 1.2175.

Market dynamics was around 67 points, which is 13% below the average. However, this decrease in volatility did not have a strong effect on speculative activity, as evidenced by the candles in the trading chart.

At the same time, the weekly chart shows that the euro is trading at the peak of the medium-term upward trend, where only the current week shows a local rebound. In simple words, full-sized correction is still a long way off.

As for the GBP / USD pair, the quote is fluctuating near the local high for several days now. However, around 1.3690 / 1.3705, traders rather encountered strong resistance, so as a result, the volume of long positions decreased in the market.

The dynamics at that time has an average of 90 points, which is 32% below the average for overall volatility.

In any case, the pound is trading at a clear upward direction (without any pullbacks) in the weekly chart. However, since there are no sharp price changes, we can assume that there is stagnation, which could lead to a correction soon.

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Market expectations and prospects

A report on US retail sales will be published today. Economists forecast that it would come out at 0%, which can be regarded as positive news since last November, the data was -1.1%.

Aside from that, consequential events are happening in the US right now. In particular, these are the passing of Donald Trump's impeachment resolution and Joe Biden's announcement of a new economic stimulus. Speculators will use these situations to add trading positions in the market.

But in the meantime, the rate of EUR / USD is fluctuating around 1.2130 / 1.2175. There is a chance that it will decisively move downwards, as evidenced by the repeated movement towards 1.2130.

For this to happen, euro bears need to hold the quote below 1.2130, preferably with a breakout below 1.2111. After that, EUR / USD could drop further down towards 1.2070 - 1.2000.

But if the bears fail to bring the quote down, the euro could stay trading at the peak of the medium-term upward trend.

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Indicator analysis shows that all time frames produce a sell signal, mainly due to the correction and movement at 1.2130.

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As for GBP / USD, there is a slight pullback from 1.3690 / 1.3705, so now, the quote is trading around 1.3611 / 1.3705.

Many assume that movement is going to slow because of the decrease in long positions, so it is better to avoid making hasty actions. In short, do not trade until the quote breaks out of 1.3611 / 1.3705.

If the pound finally drops below 1.3600 (in the H4 chart), open short positions. Such could lead to a full-sized correction, the direction of which is 1.3500-1.3300, depending on the stability of trading interest.

But if the quote moves above 1.3710 (in the H4 chart), open long positions towards 1.3900-1.4000.

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Indicator analysis shows that the hourly and daily time frames produce a buy signal due to the price trading at the peak of the medium-term trend. Meanwhile, the minute time frame is showing a sell signal because of the pullback from 1.3690 / 1.3705.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signal for EUR/USD for January 15, 2021: Key level 1.2150

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The EUR / USD pair this morning of the American session is trading in 4-hour charts below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, with strong downward pressure, since it is now located below these levels, we expect the decline to continue to the 1.2055 support.

The key zone of 1.2150, is now acting as a strong resistance for the EUR / USD pair, because in the short term, we expect there to be a downward movement below this zone, on the other hand, a break and consolidation above the 200 EMA in 4-hour charts, it may be a good start to buy the EUR / USD again with targets up to 1.23.

A bounce towards the 200 EMA area, in 4 hour charts, and if it fails to break above this level, it will be a good point to sell the EUR / USD, with targets at 1.2085 and 1.2055.

The 1.2115 level is supporting the fall of the EUR / USD pair, if this level is broken, there will be a continuation of the downward pressure to the 1.2085 support, if it bounces above this level we can buy with targets up to 1.2155, (SMA of 21).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: plan for the US session on January 15 (analysis of morning trades)

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To open long positions on GBPUSD, you need to:

Today's reports on the fall in UK GDP in November this year and the reduction in industrial production are only the beginning of the picture that will show the real state of the economy at the end of 2020. In my forecast for the first half of the day, I paid attention to the level of 1.3661 and recommended to act based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about the signals that led to the entry into the market. The formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.3661 led to the formation of an entry point into the market, as the trend at the end of the last day was upward. However, nothing came of this signal, and after a small increase of 15 points, the bears achieved a breakdown of the support of 1.3661. Then the situation began to develop more interestingly, a small consolidation below 1.3661 with a return and a test of this area from the bottom up led to the formation of a sell signal for the pound and a further fall of the pair in the area of the first target of 1.3624. The downward movement was about 40 points.

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At the moment, trading is conducted around the level of 1.3624 and buyers need to try very hard to protect this area. Good fundamental statistics on the US economy will only increase the pressure on the pound and lead to a breakdown of the level of 1.3624. In this scenario, it is best to consider new long positions after updating the support of 1.3585, from which you can buy GBPUSD immediately on the rebound to correct 30-35 points within the day. If the fall of the pound is fast enough, it is best to postpone purchases until the test of the minimum of 1.3544. An equally important task for buyers will be to return the pair to the resistance area of 1.3661 by the end of the day. Only this will allow to count on a resumption of growth GBP/USD at the beginning of next week and to break the yearly highs. Consolidation above 1.3661 forms a good entry point into long positions, but this is provided that the US data will come out much worse than economists ' forecasts.

To open short positions on GBPUSD, you need to:

Selling the pound at weekly lows is a bad enough idea. Therefore, as I noted above, all the emphasis will be on fundamental statistics for the United States. If the reports come out better than economists' forecasts, and the bears achieve a breakthrough and consolidation below 1.3624, by analogy with the morning sale, then you can safely open short positions and wait for the update of a new minimum in the area of 1.3585, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of an upward correction in the second half of the day, you can expect to sell the pound only after the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3661, where the moving averages play on the side of the bears. If there is no activity at this level, you can safely sell GBP/USD after testing the annual maximum in the area of 1.3701 with the aim of a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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Let me remind you that COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for January 5 recorded a slight decrease in interest in the British pound, but this does not affect the overall picture. Long non-commercial positions decreased from 37 550 to 35 526. At the same time, short non-commercial remained practically unchanged and increased only from 31 518 to 31 861. As a result, the non-commercial net position, although it decreased, remained positive and amounted to 3,665 against 6,032 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound even in the face of a new strain of COVID-19, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will be canceled sooner or later after the situation with infections has stabilized. Additional stimulus by the Bank of England, which will soon be discussed by economists, may also somewhat smooth the upward trend in the pound.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below the 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates a further fall in the pound.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth of GBP/USD, the average border of the indicator around 1.3661 will act as an intermediate resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: plan for the US session on January 15 (analysis of morning trades)

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To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2144 and recommended to act from it. Sellers of the euro will focus on a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.2144. A breakdown and test of this level from the bottom up will form a new signal to open short positions and open a direct road to yesterday's low of 1.2113. On the 5-minute chart, I highlighted the area where the breakdown of the level of 1.2144 occurred, after which the pair returned several times and tested this range from the bottom up, which led to the formation of a signal to sell the euro. The target was the support of 1.2113, in the area of which the downward movement of the market stopped. In the afternoon, the focus will be on this level.

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During the US session, we are waiting for several important fundamental statistics, so in the case of good indicators, the pressure on the euro will only increase. The task of the bulls will be to form a false breakout in the support area of 1.2113. In this scenario, I recommend counting on long positions with the main goal of returning and consolidating above the resistance of 1.2144, which will limit the downward potential of the pair at the beginning of next week. A break of 1.2144 will open a straight road to a maximum of 1.2179. However, I recommend opening long positions above the level of 1.2144 only after testing it from top to bottom on the volume. In the event of a further decline in the euro and a lack of activity on the part of buyers in the area of 1.2113, it is best to abandon long positions before updating new local lows in the area of 1.2080 and 1.2042, from where you can open long positions immediately on the rebound with the aim of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Sellers of the euro coped with the task for the first half of the day and managed to break below the support of 1.2144. Now a lot will depend on their behavior at the level of 1.2113. Good fundamental statistics on the US economy will only increase pressure on the euro and open a direct path to new monthly lows. A break and consolidation below 1.2113 with a test of this level from the bottom up, similar to the morning sale, will lead to a decrease in EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2080 and 1.2042, where I recommend taking the profits. If the bulls manage to "pull the blanket" on their side, the formation of a false breakout near the resistance of 1.2144, where moving averages and playing on the bears' side, forms a signal for opening short positions. I recommend selling the euro immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.2179, based on a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

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Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for January 5 recorded the growth of short positions and the growth of long positions. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend even despite the decline of the European currency at the beginning of this year, which will allow new major players to enter the market. News that vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus continues in Europe will also support euro buyers. Pressure on the euro will be exerted by isolation measures and the current quarantine in many European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 222,443 to 224,832, while short non-commercial positions jumped to 81,841 from 78,541. Due to the larger increase in short positions, the total non-commercial net position decreased from 143. 902 to 142,991 weeks earlier. The insignificant change in the delta at the beginning of the year hardly indicates a change in the tactics of buyers of the European currency, who expect the euro to resume growth after the lifting of quarantine measures in the EU countries.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1. 2113 will lead to a new wave of decline in the euro. If the euro rises, the upper limit of the indicator will act as a resistance in the area of 1.2170.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

European indices decline due to new fears of lockdowns

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The pan-European STOXX 600 index was down 0.3% by 11:33 GMT +2. Britain's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 dropped 0.6%. The German DAX Index fell 0.2%. This was prompted by the announcement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel that she wants to see very quick action in response to the record number of deaths from the coronavirus in the country. It is worth noting that the French government also intends to increase attention to the movement of citizens, namely, to tighten border controls from Monday. In addition, the curfew in the country on Saturday will begin at 18:00 local time, rather than 20:00, as it is now. The price of shares of the developer of corporate software SAP rose by 1.5%. Good preliminary annual reporting served this. At the same time, the company predicts a decrease in operating profit in 2021. Siemens Energy AG shares lost 3.3% after General Electric Co accused a subsidiary of the German company of using stolen trade secret information to obtain lucrative contracts.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading plan for EURUSD for January 15, 2021

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Technical outlook:

EURUSD dropped to fresh lows at 1.2111 yesterday, before finding support again and managed to pullback sharply towards 1.2175 levels in the next few hours. The single currency pair is seen to be trading around 1.2133 levels at this point in writing and is expected to push higher towards 1.2260/70 levels, going forward.

Immediate support is seen around 1.2080, while resistance is fixed at 1.2349 levels respectively. On the short term wave structure, EURUSD might have completed its initial drop between 1.2349 and 1.21111 levels respectively. Bulls might be preparing for a corrective rally towards 1.2270 levels before reversing lower again. Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 1.2349 and 1.2111 is seen towards 1.2265/67.

Hence probability remains high for a bearish reaction, if prices manage to reach there. Even the 1.2300 zone is a strong resistance for bears to resume lower again. Looking at the larger wave structure, EURUSD might be setting up to retrace the entire rally between 1.0636 and 1.2349 levels and drag lower towards 1.2100/50 levels respectively.

Trading plan:

Remain short, add more towards 1.2260/70, stop @ 1.2450, target is 1.1200/50

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US stock indices closed lower amid statistics and incentives expectations

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US stock indices reported a decline at the close of Thursday's trading session. Market participants were eagerly waiting for detailed information on how the administration of President-elect Joe Biden plans to stimulate the US economy hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Many investors were hoping for additional stimulus measures to help it cope with the damage caused by the coronavirus.

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The signs of a weakening labor market are another factor that affected the pessimistic mood of market participants. According to the US Department of Labor report, the number of applications for unemployment benefits rose to 965,000 from January 3-9, while analysts' preliminary forecasts only showed 795,000.

It became clear that the US economy still needed help. But since Democrats now control the White House and Congress, there are more opportunities to implement large-scale stimulus programs. In turn, they will be able to support the stock market in the short term.

As a result of Thursday's trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.2%, that was, 30991.52 points. It was followed by S&P 500, which also declined by 0.4% (3795.54 points), and the Nasdaq Composite by 0.1%, namely 13112, 64 points.

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During the trading session, all three leading indicators showed steady growth, but they unexpectedly began to lose their gained positions just before its closing.

The clear favorites of trading on Thursday were shares of small-cap companies. It is difficult to call this current condition unexpected, since such enterprises are most sensitive to changes in the economy and have high hopes for the new incentive program.

For example, the Russell 2000 Index, which includes small-cap companies, rose impressively by 2.1%. The Pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 Index is also up 0.7%.

The energy sector was the leader of growth among the S&P 500 industry sub-indices, which grew on the back of rising oil prices.

The corporate reporting season beginning in the United States has slowly come forth for investors.

Delta Air Lines shares also rose by 2.5%. Delta's CEO, Ed Bastian, believes that the company will recover this 2021 from its first annual loss in 11 years.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd grew by 6.1% on record quarterly earnings.

Today, Wall Street banks JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to publish their fourth-quarter financials.

Assessing the trading results in the Asia-Pacific markets, the main indicator of the Shanghai Composite declined by 0.9%. Experts attribute this to a reduction in China's export growth in December compared to November. Most of the other leading Asian indices increased – Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei gained 0.9% each.

On another note, Joe Biden already announced the details of the stimulus after the close of the US trading session. The plan provides for the provision of $1.9 trillion of budget funds (including about $1 trillion for direct payments to citizens), although it was previously planned that the program volume would be around $1.5 trillion.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold prices slightly rise. Analysts predict a breakout of the $2,000 mark

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Prices of precious metals were mixed this morning but still exhibited a restrained growth. Market participants appreciated the new plan to stimulate the country's economic recovery, which was presented to the general public yesterday by US President-elect Joe Biden, who is actively preparing for his inauguration. The fact that the size of the stimulus package will be significantly increased has significantly improved investor sentiment.

Gold futures for February delivery on the trading floor in New York rose 0.09% or $1.7, to $1,853.5 per troy ounce. The level of support amounted to $1,817.1 per troy ounce, and resistance was $1,864 per troy ounce.

On the other hand, the price of silver futures contracts for delivery in March is still in the negative zone decreasing 0.5% to $25.672 per troy ounce.

The price of copper futures contracts for delivery in March also sank by 0.57%, to $3.6505 per pound.

Yesterday, President-elect Joe Biden made a speech, in which he spoke in detail about what measures he is going to introduce in order to return the country's economy to growth. The central topic of discussion was the $1.9 trillion stimulus program, which was already approved by Congress as the entire Democratic party gave a positive response to its implementation. Of course, the very amount of the stimulus package could not fail to attract the attention of investors, who received even more confirmation that the prospects for growth in the precious metals market are quite justified.

The very fact that monetary policy in the U.S. is becoming even softer is a negative call for the country's national currency, the rate of which will immediately begin to move down. The fall will happen in the sector of government securities yields. And all of this, taken together, can have a positive effect on the value of gold, which acts as the most convenient and already traditional instrument for insuring against inevitable inflationary risks.

The fact that Joe Biden's speech had already negatively affected the stock markets became evident almost immediately. Yesterday's trading on both the US and Asian stock markets was negative, with an overall decline in major stock indexes by the end of the trading session. Moreover, the US dollar observed another fluctuation.

Now, more than ever, it is clear that business in the precious metals market will improve, which means that it is worth expecting a rather significant increase in value. According to most experts, all those factors that are now driving forces act as support for metals, and not vice versa. In any case, some analysts point to a very rapid rise in the value of gold, which may even surpass the $2,000 mark per troy ounce. But these are rather medium-term prospects, and in the near future, we will inevitably have to face exchange rate fluctuations.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading idea for GBP/USD

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Very weak economic data came out from the UK this morning.

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As a result, GBP / USD traded near a price level of 1.37.

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Taking this into account, it is best to open short positions today, following this strategy:

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In the daily chart, set up sell positions to 1.36 after a pullback. But if the quote undergoes a true breakout (at 1.36), hold positions up to 1.34.

Aside from that, risks are needed to be monitored to avoid losing money. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct.

The strategy above uses Price Action and Stop Hunting methods.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 15, 2021

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Overview :

The EUR/USD pair faced strong resistance at 1.2200 and pulled back closer to the support at 1.2111 while the U.S. dollar gained some ground against a broad basket of currencies. Current price sets at the point of 1.2142.

The EUR/USD pair could not manage to settle above the resistance at 1.2200 and pulled back towards the nearest support level at 1.2111.

Alos, it should be noted that : The market opened below the weekly pivot point (1.2166). It continued to move downwards from the level of 1.2166 to the bottom around 1.2111.

Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2200 followed by 1.2255, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2111.

If the GBP/USD pair settles below 1.2200, it will continue its downside move and head towards the next support level at the 20 EMA at 1.2111 again.

The GBP/USD pair broke support which turned to strong resistance at 1.2200. Right now, the pair is trading below this level. It is likely to trade in a lower range as long as it remains below the resistance (1.2200) which is expected to act as major support today.

In case the GBP/USD pair declines below the support at 1.2111, it will move towards the next support level at 1.2080. This support level has been tested several times in recent trading sessions and proved its strength.

This would suggest a bearish market because the moving average (100) is still in a negative area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment.

Amid the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2200 and 1.2053, so we expect a range of 147 pips in coming days.

Therefore, the major resistance can be found at 1.2200 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.2111. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.2111, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 1.2080 in order to test the daily support 2. Next objective 1.2053 (support three).

Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay below the zone of 1.2200.

However, on the upside, the GBP/USD pair needs to get above the resistance at 1.2200 to continue its upside move. The next resistance level for the GBP/USD pair is located at 1.2200. If GBP/USD manages to get above this level, it will head towards the resistance at 1.2255.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/JPY Decline Confirmed!

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EUR/JPY is trading at 125.84 and it could drop deeper after escaping from the up channels bodies. Failing to approach and retest the major channel's upside line indicated that the buyers are exhausted and that the pair could turn to the downside.

The breakdown from the up channels signals a downside movement, a corrective phase. As you can see on the H4 chart, EUR/USD has retested the broken support lines confirming the bearish movement.

Trading Conclusion!

Dropping below 125.80 level could represent a selling signal. The 125.00 psychological level represents an immediate downside target.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

18 January 2021





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