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NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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For the second consecutive day, the NZD/USD pair has shown strong buying interest, setting a new monthly high.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the new Federal Reserve Chair may abandon the "dot plot" strategy—an approach that signals gradual interest rate cuts. He also highlighted the possibility of changes to inflation policy and the Fed's communication framework. This comes amid expectations that the incoming Fed leadership will adopt a very dovish monetary policy stance and cut interest rates regardless of current economic data. Such expectations are limiting the U.S. dollar's upside, despite its recent rebound from the lowest levels since early October.In addition, a positive tone in global equity markets is putting pressure on the dollar, reducing its appeal as a safe-haven asset and pushing it down to weekly lows, which creates favorable conditions for gains in the New Zealand dollar. Particularly important is the hawkish posture of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): Governor Anna Breman stated that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) is likely to remain unchanged for an extended period if economic developments unfold as expected.

These factors confirm a positive short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair and strengthen the case for further growth.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching overbought territory, which could trigger a corrective pullback. Nevertheless, the MACD histogram is below the signal line but continues to rise, indicating further strengthening of the pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on December 23, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD looks fairly clear, albeit quite complex. There is no talk of canceling the bullish trend that began in January 2025, but the wave structure starting from July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which developed in a very non-standard way. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the construction of the bullish trend is not finished, and its targets may extend as far as the 25th level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e looks complete; therefore, over the coming weeks I expect the formation of a new bullish wave sequence. We have already seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 3 or c. I expected this wave to lift the instrument to the 1.1717 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, this wave is turning out to be more extended, which is a very positive sign, as it increases the chances that it will be impulsive—and, along with it, the entire bullish wave sequence.

The EUR/USD pair gained about 15 basis points on Tuesday, after rising by 50 the day before. At first glance, it may seem that the market is wide awake and certainly not about to start celebrating Christmas and the New Year ahead of time. However, in my view, nothing extraordinary has happened over the first two days of the week. The pair rose by a total of about 90 points. That is not insignificant, but the most recent high was not broken, and today's U.S. news flow managed to restrain buyers eager to push higher.

Typically, markets pay little attention to GDP reports, despite their importance—this has historically been the case. Today, however, market participants could not ignore the data, as the U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in the third quarter, which is even stronger than the "artificial" 3.8% recorded in the second quarter. As a result, Donald Trump once again "silenced" his skeptics. He promised strong economic growth, and the economy is indeed growing at a rapid pace.

Unfortunately, other U.S. reports failed to show equally positive results, so the strengthening of the U.S. dollar may be limited. Once again, we are seeing a situation in which GDP appears detached from the rest of the economic indicators. The labor market is weakening, inflation is declining (which is unfavorable for economic growth), unemployment is rising, business activity is low, industrial production is weak, and retail sales are far from impressive—yet the economy is growing at near-record rates. I believe the dollar will not extract much benefit from this GDP report.

General Conclusions

Based on this EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors weighing on the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend phase may extend as far as the 25th level. The current upward wave sequence is beginning to gain momentum, and there is reason to believe that we are now witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave structure as part of a larger global wave 5. In this case, further growth should be expected, with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to the 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci extensions.

On a smaller timeframe, the entire bullish trend phase is clearly visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as the corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. This can happen. I would like to remind readers that it is best to focus on clear and understandable structures on charts, rather than trying to label every single wave. At present, the bullish structure raises no doubts.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal change.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about price direction. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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On Tuesday during the North American session, gold partially gave up some of its intraday gains as the U.S. dollar showed a moderate pullback following mixed U.S. economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading near $4,457, slightly below the new all-time high of $4,497.

Nevertheless, the decline in the precious metal remains limited, as ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to support strong demand for safe-haven assets. In addition, expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026 are providing additional support to gold prices.

The latest stage of growth also reflects year-end portfolio rebalancing as markets enter a prolonged holiday period. While profit-taking at current levels may lead to short-term consolidation, the overall trend remains positive, with gold heading toward its strongest annual gain since 1979, having risen nearly 70% since the beginning of the year.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, is holding near the round level of 98.00, recovering at a moderate pace after falling to an intraday low around 97.85–97.82. Against the backdrop of persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela, the situation remains strained: President Donald Trump has imposed a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Earlier this month, U.S. authorities seized two oil vessels linked to Venezuela, including one over the weekend.In addition to geopolitical risks, markets are expecting two interest rate cuts in 2026, although policymakers' views remain divided following the announcement of a cumulative 75-basis-point rate reduction. On Monday, Fed Chair Steven Miran noted that current economic data could push toward a more accommodative monetary policy, warning of potential recession risks if policy is not eased. At the same time, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Sunday that she sees no need to cut rates in the coming months, as inflation risks persist, and rates are expected to remain in the 3.50%–3.75% range until spring.

A leadership transition at the Federal Reserve also plays an important role, as Chair Jerome Powell's term will end in May 2026. U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated his preference for a Fed chair who would favor lower interest rates. According to CNBC, anonymous sources suggest that a decision on the nominee could be announced as early as the first week of January. So far, Trump has already interviewed Fed Governor Christopher Waller, while other potential candidates include National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

Thus, based on the above, the fundamental backdrop suggests continued upward potential for gold.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 81, deep in overbought territory, which could limit short-term gains and lead to price consolidation. Prices have found support near the $4,430 level, which corresponds to the 14-period EMA on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. "Smart Money." Bulls Build on Their Success After the Signal

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The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance zone 9, which produced another buy signal. Let me remind you that it all started earlier with imbalances 3 and 8, which were also bullish. The pair formed two buy signals, and traders had an excellent opportunity to enter in continuation of the bullish trend at the most favorable price. This long position is currently showing a profit of about 260 points. Traders can decide for themselves what to do next: wait for more profit or close the trade with a solid gain. Personally, I am expecting further growth from the European currency. Over recent months, I have repeatedly drawn traders' attention to an obvious fact: the bullish trend remains intact. Thus, throughout this time I was waiting for a renewed bullish offensive. Now I am waiting for the yearly highs to be tested and for the weekly-chart bearish imbalance to be worked off (visible in the chart).

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains in place; reactions to bullish imbalance 3 have been obtained, reactions to bullish imbalance 8 have been obtained, and reactions to bullish imbalance 9 have been obtained as well. Despite a fairly prolonged decline in the European currency, the dollar has failed to break the bullish trend. It had five months to do so and achieved no result. If bearish patterns or signs of a breakdown of the bullish trend appear, the strategy can be adjusted. But at the moment, nothing points to that.

There was a news background on Tuesday, but we can see that the pair rose throughout Monday and for most of Tuesday even without any relevant data. If the bulls' offensive has begun, they do not need support from the news flow.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a renewed offensive for three months already, and all of them remain relevant. These include the (in any case) dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the confrontation between the U.S. and China (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests against Trump (which have swept across America three times this year), weakness in the labor market, the bleak outlook for the U.S. economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Thus, in my view, further growth of the pair will be entirely natural.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced less frequently, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. However, I personally believe this is just another "temporary lull." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why there has been no new wave of criticism from Trump. But this does not mean these factors no longer create problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I do not even try to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered over. To reach it, the bears would need to push prices down by about 400 points, and I consider this task unachievable under the current news background and circumstances. The nearest upside target for the European currency remains the weekly-chart bearish imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092, which was formed back in June 2021.

News calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

• U.S. – Change in initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 24, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

In my view, the pair may be in the final stage of the bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have attacked more often in recent months. Still, I do not currently see any realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth. Traders also had opportunities to open new trend-following long positions after reactions to bullish imbalance 3, after the reaction to imbalance 8, and this week after the rebound from imbalance 9. The growth target for the euro remains the 1.1976 level. Long positions can be kept open, with Stop Loss orders moved to breakeven.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. "Smart Money." Bulls See No Reason to Take a Break

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The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance 11 and resumed its upward movement, exactly as I expected. This is already the second reaction to bullish imbalance 11; the first buy signal appeared back last week. In fact, I do not take such signals into account on their own. If an imbalance has already been worked off (no matter to what extent), then in the future I am interested only in signals combined with liquidity grabs. This time, there was no sweep of "bearish" liquidity—but what difference does that make if a few days earlier another bullish signal was formed within the same bullish imbalance 11? Thus, traders can continue to hold long positions open, as I see no clear signs that the bulls' offensive is coming to an end. At the moment, these positions are already showing profits of about 400 points by conservative estimates.

The current chart picture is as follows. The "bullish" trend in the pound may be considered complete, but the "bullish" trend in the euro is not. As a result, the European currency may continue to pull the pound higher, although the pound itself has been rising quite well over recent weeks. Bulls have pushed off bullish imbalance 1, bullish imbalance 10, and twice from bullish imbalance 11. A large number of buy signals have been formed. There are no bearish patterns above the current price for the pound—there is nothing to stop the rise. Therefore, I expect growth toward the yearly highs, around the 1.3765 level.

On Tuesday, reports on U.S. GDP, industrial production, and durable goods orders were released, but I see little point in focusing on them, as the pound has been rising this week even without a supportive news background. On Monday, the UK released its third-quarter GDP report, which was not strong enough for bulls to launch a new attack ahead of Christmas. Today, the pound was rising even before the U.S. reports were published.

In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite challenging. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January. There was no U.S. labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be considered positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with "dovish" decisions, and the latest labor market data allow for a fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy in January. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and return to the yearly highs.

A bearish trend would require a strong and consistently positive news background for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong decline that lasted two months. Too many risk factors continue to hang like dead weight over the dollar. The current bullish trend can be considered completed, as prices fell below two lows (from May 12 and August 1), but on what basis are the bears supposed to push the pound further down? Precisely because I cannot answer this question, I do not believe that the dollar's decline will continue. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound can be reconsidered.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Change in initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 24, the economic calendar contains one secondary event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be extremely weak or absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

For the pound, the picture is beginning to look more pleasing to the eye. Three bullish patterns have been worked out, signals have been formed, and traders can continue to hold long positions. I see no informational grounds for a bearish trend in the near future.

A resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected already from imbalance zone 1. At this point, the pound has reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, and imbalance 11. As a target for potential growth, I am considering the 1.3725 level, although the pound could rise much higher—albeit next year. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be reconsidered, but for now I see no reason to do so.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on December 23, 2025

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For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the formation of an upward segment of the trend (bottom chart), but over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that began on September 17 took the form of a five-wave pattern a–b–c–d–e and has been completed. The instrument is now in the stage of forming a new upward wave sequence.

Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and extended at any time. Even the presumed wave 4, which has been forming for six months, could take on a five-wave structure, in which case we would observe a correction for several more months. However, at the present time there is a strong chance that an upward wave sequence is forming. If this is indeed the case, then the first two waves of this segment have already been completed, and we are now observing the formation of wave 3 or c, which is taking on an impulsive character and gives hope that the current wave sequence is impulsive in nature.

The GBP/USD pair gained about 30 basis points during Tuesday and about 80 points the day before. The construction of the presumed wave 3 or c of the new upward trend segment continues, so the strengthening of the British pound does not concern me. What does concern me is the market's reaction to today's U.S. statistics and the statistics themselves.

As I already mentioned in the EUR/USD review, U.S. economic growth raises many questions. Can anyone explain how an economy can grow at record rates amid rising unemployment, an extremely "cooled" labor market, falling inflation, weak business activity, continuously declining industrial production, and weak retail sales? It appears that third-quarter growth was once again "artificial," driven by customs duties on imports into the U.S. There are no other plausible explanations.

Market participants cannot fail to understand that weak economic data and strong GDP figures do not align with each other. Therefore, an increase in demand for the dollar based on strong GDP data looks questionable and short-lived. Based on this, I believe that the rise of the U.S. currency will not last long—unless the market decides to continue forming corrective wave 4 and complicate it into a five-wave structure. This scenario cannot be ruled out, but I still believe we are unlikely to see it materialize.

General Conclusions

The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a–b–c–d–e within C in wave 4 appears complete, as does wave 4 as a whole. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I expected the formation of wave 3 or c with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c continues to develop, and at present a fourth attempt is being made to break through the 1.3450 level, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The movement targets are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

The higher-timeframe wave count looks almost ideal, even though wave 4 moved beyond the high of wave 1. However, I would like to remind you that ideal wave counts exist only in textbooks. In practice, everything is far more complex. At this time, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to an upward trend segment.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out of it.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market direction. Never forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23rd (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading advice for the Japanese yen

The test of the 155.95 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Today, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said in an interview that the country has room to take decisive measures against the weakening of the Japanese yen and excessive exchange-rate fluctuations. All of this led to a decline in the USD/JPY pair, which continued during the European session. Ms. Katayama's statement, which came like a bolt from the blue, instantly overturned investors' perceptions of the Bank of Japan's future policy. Such rhetoric, if backed by real actions to raise interest rates, could shift the balance of power in the currency market and put an end to the dollar's dominance over the yen—at least in the short term.

However, in addition to statements by Japanese officials, traders' attention in the second half of the day will be drawn to data on U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter, the key consumer spending index, and the consumer confidence index. These figures will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the markets. Traders will closely watch for confirmation or refutation of the increasingly widespread talk about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth. Unexpected readings that differ from forecasts may trigger volatility and a reassessment of risks.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 156.18 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 156.59 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.59, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Continued growth of the pair can be expected in line with the prevailing trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.89 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.18 and 156.59 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below (renewal of) the 155.89 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.43 level, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pair may return today in the event of weak U.S. economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.18 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.89 and 155.43 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23rd (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading advice for the British pound

The test of the 1.3494 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair almost reached the target level around 1.3520.

Amid the absence of any UK economic data, the British pound continued to follow the upward trend. The lack of fundamental drivers left the initiative in the hands of technical traders, who apparently decided to take advantage of dollar weakness and low liquidity ahead of important U.S. data.

In the second half of the day, reports will be released on changes in U.S. GDP for the third quarter of this year, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, changes in durable goods orders, changes in industrial production, and the consumer confidence indicator. This data will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the markets. Any unexpected results that deviate from forecasts may trigger volatility and a reassessment of risks. In particular, close attention will be paid to the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. This indicator, monitored by the Federal Reserve, is its preferred measure of inflation. If PCE data show persistent inflationary pressure, the Fed may consider adopting a more restrictive stance on interest rates early in the year. The consumer confidence indicator will provide insight into consumer sentiment, which drives a large share of economic growth. Optimistic consumers tend to spend more, stimulating economic activity and supporting the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3516 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.3567 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3567, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Pound appreciation today can be expected within the framework of the morning trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3495 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3516 and 1.3567 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a break below (renewal of) the 1.3495 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3458 level, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pressure on the pound may return today in the event of strong U.S. economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3516 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3495 and 1.3458 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23rd (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading advice for the European currency

The test of the 1.1781 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

The absence of data from the eurozone allowed the euro to continue its advance, while the insignificant German import price index was, as expected, ignored by market participants. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD currency pair broke through another important resistance level, providing opportunities for further upside.

Nevertheless, it should be taken into account that after midday, data will be released on U.S. GDP growth for the third quarter, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, changes in durable goods orders, as well as industrial production figures. Toward the end of the day, the consumer confidence index will also be published. GDP, as the main indicator of the economy's health, will influence future interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve. Data on durable goods orders and industrial production will help assess the condition of the manufacturing sector, while the consumer confidence index will reflect consumer sentiment, which is the driving force behind consumer spending—a significant component of GDP. A decline in confidence may signal a reduction in consumer activity and a slowdown in economic growth.

Taken together, all these indicators will provide a comprehensive assessment of the state of the U.S. economy and set the direction for market movement in the near term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching the price area around 1.1812 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1855. At the 1.1855 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected within the trend following weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1782 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1812 and 1.1855 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1782 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1750, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Strong pressure on the pair will return in the case of strong U.S. economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1812 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1782 and 1.1750 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 23, 2025

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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair recorded its third rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1718 and began an upward move toward the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802. A rebound from this zone would favor the U.S. currency and lead to a moderate decline toward the 1.1718 level. A consolidation above this zone would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next retracement level at 0.0% – 1.1919.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave broke above the previous wave's peak, while the new downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks bulls have regained confidence and launched fresh attacks. The easing of the Fed's monetary policy supports further euro appreciation, and the ECB will not create any problems for the single currency in the near future.

There was no notable news background on Monday, yet bulls became active for unclear reasons. However, in my view, everything is unfolding in a logical manner. The "bullish" trend persists across all trading systems and indicators, and last week's news background will not support the U.S. dollar. Last week, an abundance of information from both the European Union and the United States made the market nervous and caused sharp swings. There was simply too much information, so not everyone was able to draw the correct conclusions immediately. However, the U.S. labor market showed no recovery, despite the Nonfarm Payrolls figure being higher than traders had expected. This indicator has a certain threshold below which almost any value can be considered negative. The labor market is slowing even when 50–100 thousand new jobs are created. Thus, the November figure of 60 thousand is not positive, even though it exceeded forecasts. At the same time, the unemployment rate jumped sharply to 4.6%. Taken together, the situation for the dollar did not improve.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair previously reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator. However, yesterday on the hourly chart a reversal occurred in favor of the European currency, meaning that on the 4-hour chart the growth process may also continue toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268,000, while short positions amount to 129,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they generate numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States—for example, the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's expected resignation in May next year.

News calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

• U.S. – Change in durable goods orders (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in GDP, second estimate for Q3 (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in industrial production (13:30 UTC).

On December 23, the economic calendar contains three noteworthy entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be felt in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair is possible if prices rebound from the 1.1795–1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1718. Long positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level with targets at 1.1795–1.1802. Today, these trades can be kept open. If prices close above the 1.1795–1.1802 level, positions can be left open with targets at 1.1829 and 1.1919.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392 to 1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066 to 1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 23, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday continued its upward movement after rebounding from the 1.3352–1.3362 support level. During the day, prices consolidated above the 1.3437 and 1.3470 levels. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the next level at 1.3539. A consolidation of quotes below the 1.3437 level would once again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and return the pair to the sideways range of 1.3352–1.3437.

The wave situation has once again turned "bullish" after the completion of the sideways phase. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave managed to break the previous peak. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the information backdrop in the United States also leaves much to be desired. Bulls and bears had been in a tug-of-war for a week and remained in relative balance, but a week before the New Year the bulls launched a new offensive.

The news background on Monday was weak. UK GDP came in neutral relative to traders' expectations, but the bulls found reasons for a new attack. I would like to remind you that if we look at the global economic situation and take into account the status of the dollar as the "world's reserve currency," its decline should continue. Key labor market and unemployment reports last week showed no improvement. Along with these data, it became known that U.S. inflation is slowing, which to some extent gives the Fed more room to ease monetary policy. Thus, the market expects interest rate cuts to continue in 2026. And despite similar expectations regarding the Bank of England, the dollar remains under pressure, as it is a more significant currency for the global economy than the British pound. It should also be remembered that regardless of the news background, the "bullish" trend remains intact. This is clearly visible on the hourly, 4-hour, and daily charts.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% – 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions rose by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions is now effectively as follows: 60,000 versus 135,000. As we can see, bears have dominated since early December, but the pound appears to have already exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is exactly the opposite. I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency occasionally enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy in order to halt the rise in unemployment and stimulate the creation of new jobs. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at present no one can be sure that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more "dovish" one during the year.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Change in durable goods orders (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in GDP (second estimate) for Q3 (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Change in industrial production (13:30 UTC).

On December 23, the economic calendar contains three entries that are of some interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be present, but in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Short positions can be opened if prices close below the 1.3437 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3352–1.3362. I previously recommended opening long positions on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470. These targets have been reached. Today, these trades can be kept open with a target at 1.3539.

The Fibonacci grids are plotted from 1.3470 to 1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Member of the ECB Executive Board Isabel Schnabel Changed Her Mind

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Meanwhile, as the European currency continues its confident rise against the U.S. dollar, European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said yesterday that she does not expect interest rates to be raised in the near future. Let me remind you that at the beginning of last week she held a radically different view, stating that she did not rule out an increase in borrowing costs.

Speaking after her recent comments—which prompted investors to increase bets on higher borrowing costs next year—Schnabel said that she had not spoken about the need to raise interest rates. "At the moment, no interest rate hikes are expected in the foreseeable future," she said in a podcast released on Monday. "Rates are likely to remain stable for quite a long time, unless some unforeseen events occur."

Such statements from senior ECB officials introduce a certain degree of confusion into currency markets. Investors and traders are trying to decipher what actually lies behind these contradictory signals. On the one hand, the strengthening of the euro suggests that the market sees potential for tighter monetary policy in the euro area. On the other hand, Schnabel's words indicate that the ECB may not be rushing to raise rates, fearing negative consequences for economic growth.

The disagreements within the ECB are likely related to differing views on the current economic situation. Some council members believe that inflation in the euro area is around the target level and that there is no urgent need to change rates. Others, concerned that the economy may slow, advocate a cautious approach by the ECB. In any case, such fluctuations in ECB rhetoric create additional volatility in the currency market. Traders have to constantly revise their forecasts and adapt to changing conditions. In this situation, the ability to analyze economic data and understand the motives guiding ECB representatives becomes particularly important.

Recently, many officials have made it clear that they are comfortable with the current level of interest rates, which they consider optimal, as inflation has returned to the 2% target and the economies of the 20 eurozone countries continue to grow, albeit slowly.

"I did not say that interest rates should be raised," Schnabel emphasized. "Rather, they should not be lowered again. This is a very important distinction."

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to take out the 1.1780 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1800. From there, it is possible to climb to 1.1830, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1865. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, only around the 1.1750 level do I expect any serious action from large buyers. If no one appears there, it would be better to wait for an update of the low at 1.1730 or to open long positions from 1.1705.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take out the nearest resistance at 1.3490. Only this will allow them to target 1.3525, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The most distant target would be the 1.3560 level. If the pair declines, bears will try to seize control of 1.3455. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3415, with the prospect of moving on to 1.3375.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 23/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USDX, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market embarks on early Santa Claus rally

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Those who hesitated have missed out. Although the Christmas rally typically encompasses the last five trading days of the old year and the first two of the new year, the S&P 500 has already started to gain value. Investors do not want to miss this momentum and are buying stocks. In both 2023-2024 and 2024-2025, the broad market index experienced declines, and it has never closed in the red for three consecutive times during this period of the year.

S&P 500 Christmas Rally

Pessimists point to the high fundamental valuations of tech companies, questioning their ability to generate profits commensurate with substantial investments, while expressing concerns about a prolonged pause in the Federal Reserve's monetary expansion cycle.

Optimists, on the other hand, pay tribute to the technology giants, which have been instrumental in driving the S&P 500 up by 17% since the beginning of the year. They focus less on the timeline for rate cuts and more on their scale. If Donald Trump can fill the FOMC with dovish members, his dream of reducing borrowing costs to 1% could become a reality.

It seems that those with a half-full glass are prevailing. The S&P 500 is confidently moving towards a recovery of its upward trend. Investors have recalled the principle, "the trend is your friend, so trade with the trend," and they are buying American stocks. Furthermore, Wall Street analysts are more united than ever. The divergence between the highest forecast for the broad market index in 2026 at Oppenheimer, which stands at 8,000, and the lowest forecast at Stifel Nicolaus, which is 7,000, is only 16%. When the majority sways in one direction, the crowd is often right, even though the risks of sharp movements in the opposite direction are increasing.

Dynamics of S&P 500 Forecast Deviations

It's important to note that analysts typically exhibit caution. At the end of 2024, the consensus forecast among Wall Street experts predicted a 9% rally for the S&P 500 in 2025. However, it may turn out that the broad market index exceeds that forecast by double. Likewise, few anticipated a twofold gain in the US equity market for 2023-2024, which ultimately happened.

Low evaluations begin with the observation that the price-to-forward-earnings ratio for S&P 500 companies is at its highest level since the dot-com crisis. Meanwhile, doubts about the effectiveness of artificial intelligence technologies could trigger a significant decline in the broad market index. This would dampen the wealth effect and risk reverting the US economy into a recession, similar to what occurred in 2001.

High valuations are associated with expectations of GDP acceleration fueled by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, increased corporate profits, and capital inflows from foreign investors.

From a technical viewpoint, the daily chart of the S&P 500 indicates a continued upward movement, with bulls currently in control. A breakout above the local high near the 6,900 level will allow for an increase in previously established long positions. Target levels for buyers are set at 6,990 and 7,100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 23: S&P 500 and NASDAQ ease off growth momentum

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Last Friday, the stock indices closed with gains, with the S&P 500 up by 0.64%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.52%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.47%.

Global stock markets continued to rise, strengthening for the fourth consecutive trading day amid expectations of a year-end rally. The MSCI All Country Index rose on Tuesday after setting a new closing high in the previous session. The Asia-Pacific stocks index climbed by 0.5%, while American stock futures displayed a less vigorous rally, remaining stable. In the commodities market, gold reached yet another historical high, marking the 50th day this year when it has set records. Silver also hit a new peak.

The Japanese yen has remained a focal point for currency traders, strengthening for the second day in a row and surpassing the 156 yen per dollar mark. This occurred after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stated in an interview that the country has "freedom of action" to take decisive measures against currency fluctuations. These comments served as a stern warning for speculators following the yen's weakening to 157.78 yen, even after the central bank raised interest rates last Friday.

Positive sentiment among equity investors has helped the S&P 500 index recoup December losses on Monday and paved the way for an eighth consecutive month of growth, marking the longest streak since 2018. Leaders in growth among major companies included Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp.

Following another successful year for the stock market, the key question is whether investors will maintain this positive sentiment in 2026. Positions in the stock market are increasing, while fund managers maintain record-low cash levels. Their expectations for further growth outweigh concerns about inflated valuations of technology companies.

Federal Reserve Chairman Stephen Miran stated that the central bank risks triggering a recession if it does not continue to lower interest rates next year, which has only fueled appetite for riskier assets.

Chinese stocks performed the worst in Asia after analysts at Citigroup Inc. downgraded their ratings, citing less favorable profit forecasts and disappointing macroeconomic outlooks.

Meanwhile, oil prices stabilized after four days of increases, amid reports that the US continues its blockade on oil supplies from Venezuela. Brent crude prices approached $62 per barrel after rising about 5% over the previous four sessions, while West Texas Intermediate crude was priced around $58. It is worth noting that the US has taken control of two Venezuelan tankers and is seeking to capture a third, all part of Washington's measures to pressure Nicolas Maduro's government.

From a technical perspective, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,874. Doing so would indicate growth and open the opportunity for a surge to a new level of $6,896. An equally critical task for bulls will be to establish control above the $6,905 mark to strengthen their positions. In the event of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,854. A break below this level could quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,837 and pave the way down to $6,819.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold Reaches Another Record High of $4,500

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According to recent data, gold reached a record high today. This comes amid renewed geopolitical tensions and the prospect of further US interest rate cuts. Silver has also reached a historical high.

Investors, seeking safety amid global uncertainty, are flocking to precious metals, which are traditionally considered a "safe haven." Additionally, expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve are putting further pressure on the dollar, making gold and silver more attractive to holders of other currencies. The price increase in precious metals is fueled not only by short-term factors but also by long-term trends, including the rising national debt of many countries, ongoing inflation risks, and diversification of assets by central banks.

The spot price of gold rose by 1.2% and dipped just below $4,500 per ounce, continuing its ascent following the largest single-day jump in over a month. Traders anticipate that after three consecutive interest rate cuts, the Fed will again lower borrowing costs next year, doing so at least twice.

Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has also strengthened amid rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, where the US is blocking oil tankers, increasing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government.

It's worth noting that gold prices have increased by 70% this year and are set to deliver their best annual performance since 1979. This rapid growth has been supported by increased purchases from central banks and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to the World Gold Council, the total assets in such funds have increased every month this year, except for May.

Aggressive measures by US President Donald Trump to reshape global trade, along with his threats to the Federal Reserve's independence, have fueled the bullish market.

As mentioned earlier, silver has also risen by 1.4%, approaching the $70 per ounce mark. The price of this white metal has increased by approximately 140% this year.

As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,481. This will allow targeting $4,531, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the area of $4,591. If gold falls, bears will attempt to take control of $4,432. If successful, a breakout of this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,372 with the potential to reach $4,304.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 157.32 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 30 pips.

After expectations of future monetary easing from the Federal Reserve increased, the dollar lost ground. This decline was particularly evident against the Japanese yen. Investors began shifting assets into other currencies as lower US interest rates are believed to diminish the dollar's attractiveness. However, caution is advised when selling the USD/JPY pair, as despite the Bank of Japan's tight policy, the future trajectory of interest rate increases remains uncertain.

Regarding the intra-day strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if it reaches the entry point around 156.20 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.59 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.59, I plan to exit my long positions and open a short position immediately on a bounce, targeting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.95 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposite levels of 156.20 and 156.59.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 155.95 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.65, where I plan to exit my short positions and open long positions immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.20 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.95 and 155.65.

Chart Annotations:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make very cautious decisions regarding market entry. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3439 occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 1.3469.

The dollar lost considerable ground after the increased likelihood of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve of the United States, along with positive data on UK GDP growth and investment. The market is now waiting for further signals from Fed officials to better assess the future trajectory of monetary policy. Any hints at a more aggressive rate cut could further weaken the US currency.

Today, due to the lack of fresh economic data from the UK, those betting on a decline in the pound's value will have no significant catalysts for activity. The British currency, having a good domestic guide following yesterday's data, may continue to rise against the dollar. However, without strong internal impulses for a significant upward movement, it is unlikely to materialize. In the prevailing circumstances, it is critically important for the pound to hold above the main support levels. Breaking these levels could initiate a new phase of sell-offs and lead to a decline in the exchange rate.

Regarding the intra-day strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if it reaches the entry point around 1.3494 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to the level of 1.3520 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3520, I intend to exit my long positions and open a short position immediately on a bounce (targeting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from this level). Expectations for a strong rise in the pound today are limited. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3480 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth may be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3494 and 1.3520.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3480 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3458, where I plan to exit my short positions and open long positions immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Sellers of the pound may manifest themselves within the framework of a correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3494 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. Expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3480 and 1.3458.

Chart Annotations:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make very cautious decisions regarding market entry. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of 1.1745 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The euro continued to strengthen against the dollar, particularly amid the absence of U.S. reports. Investors refocused on the prospects of U.S. monetary policy, and the lack of current information only heightened concerns about the slowing pace of the U.S. economy, fueling expectations for a softer policy from the Federal Reserve.

Today, in the first half of the day, the likelihood that the German import price index will affect the euro's exchange rate is low. Although this indicator is somewhat important for assessing inflation, its impact on the currency market is usually short-lived. Currently, investors are paying more attention to signs of economic recovery in the region and the European Central Bank's plans. Any positive news in this area will support the euro.

Regarding the intra-day strategy, I will rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I will buy the euro today if prices reach around 1.1781 (the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1805. At 1.1805, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on a bounce, targeting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Growth of the euro can only be expected after favorable news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1769 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. I can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1781 and 1.1805.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1769 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1750, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1781 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. I can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1769 and 1.1750.

Chart Annotations:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price where you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price where you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where you can set Take Profit or fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: It is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make very cautious decisions regarding market entry. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations for December 23

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Bitcoin has failed to hold the $90,000 level and has fallen back to around $87,000, while trading within a sideways channel. Ethereum has also dropped below $3,000, reducing its near-term upside prospects.

Meanwhile, the struggling company Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, which has attracted significant attention, did not purchase BTC for the first time in a long while last week. However, it increased its reserves by $748 million, bringing them to $2.19 billion and 671,268 BTC. This suggests that the company is preparing for another major market downturn and is setting aside a buffer for such an event.

The increase in reserves signifies a strategic approach to risk management amid the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. While other companies may adopt a more aggressive buying strategy, Strategy has chosen to remain flexible and maintain sufficient funds for maneuvering in unfavorable market scenarios. It is interesting to note that the company may not only be anticipating a short-term price decline but also a longer period of instability known as "crypto winter". The increase in reserves can be interpreted as preparation for an extended period of reduced market activity, during which prices fluctuate within a wide range.

Strategy's actions also serve as a signal to other market participants. They demonstrate that even the most fervent supporters of cryptocurrencies acknowledge the need for risk management and are preparing for potential negative scenarios. This could affect market sentiment and lead to a more cautious approach to cryptocurrency investments.

As for the intra-day strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the expectation of sustained long-term bullish market conditions, which have not disappeared.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $87,900, with a target of growth to $89,300. I will exit my positions around $89,300 and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $86,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels of $87,900 and $89,300.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $86,800, with a target to decline to $85,700. I will exit my sales around $85,700 and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $87,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels of $86,800 and $85,700.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,977, with a target for growth to $3,018. I will exit my positions around $3,018 and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,942 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels of $2,977 and $3,018.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,942, with a target for a decline to $2,902. I will exit my sales around $2,902 and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,977 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels of $2,942 and $2,902.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 23. The Pound is Unstoppable

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3402 and planned to make decisions based on it. The rise and breakout at 1.3402 occurred without a retest, so I was unable to get an entry point for long positions. In the afternoon, a false breakout at 1.3443 provided an excellent entry point to buy the pound, resulting in the pair rising by more than 30 pips.

For opening long positions on GBP/USD:

The pound reacted positively to the UK GDP data. The bullish market received support in the afternoon amid rising expectations for further US rate cuts. Today, there is no report from the UK, so sellers of the pound will have much less reason to be active. This is better for buyers. I expect to see their first signs already during a correction around the support level of 1.3452. A false breakout would be a good opportunity to open long positions with the aim of further growth towards the resistance level of 1.3490, where trading is currently taking place. A breakout and retest of this range from above will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, triggering stop orders for sellers and providing an appropriate entry point for long positions, with the potential to reach 1.3525. The furthest target will be around 1.3567, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no buying at 1.3452, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to a move towards the next support level at 1.3411. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a bounce from the 1.3374 low, targeting an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.

For opening short positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers have adopted a wait-and-see stance and are clearly in no hurry to reenter the market. If the pair continues to rise, bears can expect to act around the nearest resistance at 1.3490. A false breakout there will provide grounds for selling GBP/USD, targeting the support level of 1.3452, where slightly lower moving averages are located, favoring the bulls. A breakout and retest from below this range after weak data would deal a more significant blow to buyer positions, leading to stop orders being triggered and opening a path to 1.3411. The furthest target will be the 1.3374 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD continues to rise and bears remain inactive at 1.3490, buyers will continue to develop the trend, which could lead to a surge towards 1.3525. I also plan to open only short positions there on a false breakout. If there is no downward movement even there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3567, but only in anticipation of a downward correction of the pair by 30-35 pips during the day.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders (COT) is not being published. As soon as an updated report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest relevant data is only as of December 9.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in both long and short positions. The last COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 8,067 to 60,319, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 3,402 to 135,834. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 23,795.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is taking place above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth for the pound.
• Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3425.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA - period 12; Slow EMA - period 26; SMA - period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period - 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 23. The Euro Strongly Appreciates Against the Dollar

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Yesterday, several market entry points were established. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1729 and planned to base my decisions on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1729 provided an entry point to sell the euro, but it did not lead to a significant decline in the pair. In the afternoon, the breakout and retest of 1.1729 prompted euro purchases, driving the pair up by more than 30 pips.

For opening long positions on EUR/USD:

The absence of reports from the US helped the euro continue to rise against the dollar, as the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve significantly increased. In the first half of the day, there are no data points that could harm the euro's bullish trend. The only report of interest is the German import price index, but it is unlikely to change anything significantly. If EUR/USD experiences a slight decline, I expect to see the first signs of buyers around the support level at 1.1754, as seen in yesterday's activity. Only after a false breakout there can a long position be considered, targeting a recovery to around 1.1776, where trading is currently taking place. A breakout and retest of this range, similar to what I analyzed earlier, will confirm the decision to buy euros in anticipation of a larger jump towards 1.1801. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1840, where I will take profits. Testing this level will reinforce the bullish market for the euro. If EUR/USD declines and there is a lack of activity near 1.1754, pressure on the pair will increase, which could lead to a larger downward movement for the euro. In that case, bears will attempt to reach the next interesting level of 1.1729. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition to buy euros. Long positions can be opened immediately on a bounce from 1.1706, targeting an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

For opening short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers are not showing activity for now, and there are no significant reasons for them to do so. In the current conditions, it is better to act at the highest level possible. If EUR/USD continues to rise in the first half of the day amid the absence of important data, bears can only rely on the nearest resistance at 1.1776. A false breakout there will provide an entry point for short positions targeting the support level of 1.1754. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a retest from below, will present an additional opportunity to open short positions with a movement towards the area of 1.1729. The furthest target will be the 1.1706 area, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD moves higher along the trend and bears are not active around 1.1776, buyers will have a good opportunity to continue developing the bullish market. In that case, it is better to postpone short positions until the larger level of 1.1801 is reached. Selling there will only occur after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1840, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 pips.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders (COT) is not being published. As soon as a current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest relevant data is only from December 9.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. However, this data is not suitable for building a strategy, so it doesn't require special attention. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 18,446 to 268,118, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 11,889 to 129,330. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 12,889.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates further growth for the euro.
• Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the overall definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1735 will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA - period 12; Slow EMA - period 26; SMA - period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period - 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 23? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, particularly in the United States. Reports on GDP (second estimate for the third quarter), industrial production, and durable goods orders will be released. Among this list, the GDP report is the least interesting, as the second estimate is objectively less significant than the first or third. However, the reports on industrial production and durable goods orders may provoke a market reaction. The event calendars for the UK and the Eurozone are empty today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are planned for Tuesday. Overall, the market's current questions may be directed only at the Federal Reserve. The last meeting took place recently, but afterwards, data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation were released in the US, which significantly impacts the Fed's monetary policy. Thus, we do not have an updated perspective from Jerome Powell or other members of the FOMC. However, as already mentioned, there are no scheduled remarks from Fed officials on Tuesday. With the holidays approaching, many politicians, officials, and staff are taking time off.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their upward movements, but today's US macroeconomic backdrop could influence the dollar's movement. The EUR/USD pair may continue to rise following the formation of two buy signals in the 1.1745-1.1754 range. The GBP/USD pair may continue its upward move after breaking out of the sideways channel and generating a buy signal in the 1.3437-1.3446 area.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 23? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Monday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair rose by 110 pips on Monday, easily leaving the weekly sideways channel of 1.3331-1.3437. We mentioned that the British pound would continue to rise, while the dollar would decline. The market is currently "thin," which makes it easier for large players to move the price in the desired direction during the holidays than at other times. Recall that last week, there was an abundance of macroeconomic reports and fundamental events, and the price remained in a sideways channel throughout that week. However, on the first day of the holiday period, the pound showed an increase of 100 pips, despite a lack of significant impact from the only report of the day – the GDP in the UK. This indicates that traders had nothing to react to yesterday. Nevertheless, the rise of the British currency continued into the night, further proving that the five-month downward correction has ended and the global uptrend for 2025 is resuming.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trade signal was generated on Monday. In the US trading session, the pair broke above the 1.3437-1.3446 range, allowing novice traders to open long positions. These trades remain relevant today, so profit may increase throughout the day.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its flat movement and is once again moving upward. We fully support this scenario, as we have stated multiple times. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth; therefore, we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we anticipate a resumption of the global uptrend in 2025, which may push the pair to the 1.4000 mark in the next couple of months.

On Tuesday, novice traders can consider new long positions if the price bounces off the 1.3437-1.3446 area, targeting 1.3529. However, a corresponding buy signal was generated yesterday.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels include 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. There are no significant events scheduled in the UK for Tuesday, while in the US, reports on industrial production, durable goods orders, and the third-quarter GDP in its second estimate will be published. This data is quite important, and no other events are scheduled this week. Therefore, during today's US trading session, the price may either accelerate its rise or sharply reverse downward.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 23? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Monday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair unexpectedly began to rise on Monday. This was surprising on both fundamental and macroeconomic grounds, especially given that it is the start of the Christmas week. On Monday, there were no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone or the US; nevertheless, the European currency appreciated by 70 pips. For us, any increase in the EUR/USD pair is logically expected. Moreover, we warned that in the context of a "thin" market, volatile trend movements are even more likely than in recent weeks and months, making it easier to move the price. From a technical standpoint, the pair settled above two descending trend lines in the morning while maintaining the relevance of a long-term ascending trend line. Therefore, novice traders could have opened long positions at the very start of the movement. The pair is once again approaching the upper line of the sideways channel 1.1400-1.1830 on the daily timeframe and has every chance of breaking through this time. We consider it possible that the end of the six-month flat phase may coincide with Christmas and the New Year.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were generated on Monday. First, the pair broke above the area of 1.1745-1.1754 and then bounced off it from above. Thus, novice traders could open another long position if they missed the first opportunity, based on the signal from the hourly timeframe.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon test the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which marks the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. This time, we may witness a breakout. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the US dollar; therefore, we expect the pair to rise in the medium term.

On Tuesday, novice traders can trade in the area of 1.1745-1.1754. Two buy signals have already been formed on Monday. In a "thin" market, the growth may continue on Tuesday. However, today there will also be macroeconomic events, so a market reaction should be expected—any kind of reaction.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone, while the US will release reports on GDP, industrial production, and durable goods orders. These are quite important reports, so a market reaction to them should be anticipated.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.