Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

Market rises under Christmas spirit

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The S&P 500 has done what it needed to do, setting its 39th record in 2025 during thin pre-Christmas trading. With trading volumes declining and a slight bullish bias in the air, the broad market index had little choice but to climb. This time, the euphoria among buyers was linked to optimism regarding the US economy and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

After an impressive report showing US GDP growth of 4.3% in the third quarter, investors were further encouraged by a decrease in initial unemployment claims to 214,000 for the week ending December 20. Coupled with news that Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased $2.9 million worth of Nike shares, this was enough to sustain the S&P 500 rally, especially as volatility in the US stock market had reached its lowest levels since the beginning of the year.

Dynamics of US Stock Market Volatility Index (VIX)

The impact of Nike's stock increase on the broad market index represents another chapter in the influence of major companies on the S&P 500. For several years, the Magnificent Seven stocks have been the primary driver of the US stock market rally, although returns on investments in them are gradually declining.

The S&P 500 is poised to grow by 18% in 2025, heading toward its third consecutive year of double-digit gains. CFRA claims that replicating this performance in 2026 will be nearly impossible. Since 1945, the broad market index has recorded only one four-year stretch with annual gains exceeding 10% (from 1949 to 1952) and one five-year stretch (from 1995 to 1999). While nothing is impossible in the market, the odds are slim.

Returns on Investments in Magnificent Seven

The Christmas rally will eventually pass, and investors will undoubtedly remember the underlying issues, particularly concerns about the fundamental overvaluation of technology stocks and their inability to generate adequate profits relative to investments. The only way to recognize a bubble is to wait for it to burst. While this may not occur in 2026, traders need to remain alert. A full-scale S&P 500 crash would not only impact financial markets but also the global economy.

However, Donald Trump remains confident that this will not happen. The president aims to appoint a Federal Reserve chair who will lower interest rates to support stock indices, rather than hinder them. The paradox is that markets are wary of his favored candidate, Kevin Hassett, as he is perceived to be too close to the White House. The risks of the Fed potentially losing its independence have not been forgotten.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the S&P 500 indicates a resumed upward trend. Quotes are moving away from the moving averages, suggesting the strength of bulls. The previously set targets of 6,990 and 7,100 are coming closer. In this context, it makes sense to hold and gradually increase previously established long positions in the broad market index.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Smart Money. The Market Closes Today

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The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance zone 9, which gave us another buy signal. Let me remind you that it all started with imbalances 3 and 8, which were also bullish. The pair formed two buy signals, and traders had an excellent opportunity to enter in continuation of the bullish trend at the most favorable price. This long position is currently showing a profit of about 260 points. Traders can decide for themselves what to do next: wait for greater profits or close the trade now. Personally, I am expecting further growth from the euro. Over the past few months, I have repeatedly pointed out to traders an obvious fact: the bullish trend remains intact. Thus, all this time I have been waiting for a new bullish offensive. Now I am waiting for a test of the 2025 highs and the "bearish" imbalance on the weekly chart.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend persists: a reaction to bullish imbalance 3 has occurred, a reaction to bullish imbalance 8 has occurred, and a reaction to bullish imbalance 9 has occurred. Despite a fairly prolonged decline in the euro, the dollar has still failed to break the bullish trend. It had five months to do so and achieved no result. If bearish patterns appear or signs of a breakdown of the bullish trend emerge, the strategy can be adjusted. But at the moment, nothing points to this.

The news background on Wednesday was virtually absent, and trader activity on the day before Christmas was minimal. Despite fairly active trading on Monday and Tuesday, traders also want to enjoy the holiday. Today, the market is closed until Friday.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a new advance for the past three months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the dovish (in any case) outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests against Trump (which have swept across America three times this year), weakness in the labor market, the bleak outlook for the U.S. economy (recession), and the shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Thus, in my view, further growth of the pair is entirely justified.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced infrequently, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. But personally, I believe this is just another "temporary lull." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why a new wave of criticism from Trump has not appeared. However, this does not mean that these factors no longer create problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I do not even try to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered complete. The bears would need to push the price down about 400 points to reach it, and I consider this task unattainable under the current news background and circumstances. The nearest upside target for the euro remains the bearish imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On December 25, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be absent, and the market itself will be closed.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my opinion, the pair may be in the final stage of its bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have been attacking more often in recent months. Nevertheless, I do not currently see realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some degree of growth. Traders also had opportunities to open new trend-following long positions when a reaction to bullish imbalance 3 was received, after the reaction to imbalance 8, and this week—after the rebound from imbalance 9. The upside target for the euro remains the 1.1976 level. Long positions can be kept open, with Stop Loss orders moved to break-even.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Smart Money. The Holidays Have Begun

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The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance 11 and resumed its upward move, just as I had anticipated. This is already the second reaction to bullish imbalance 11; the first buy signal was generated last week. At the moment, long positions are already showing a profit of around 400 points by conservative estimates, and traders can decide for themselves what to do next. In my view, the upward move in the pound will continue. However, the market is closed tomorrow, and on Friday we are unlikely to see any interesting movements. Then comes the weekend, three working days, and the New Year. If we do see any market moves during this period, they will not be driven by the news background. I would also note that a new bullish imbalance 12 has formed, which may once again serve as a reason to open new long positions in the future for those traders who did not do so earlier.

The current chart picture is as follows. The bullish trend in the pound can be considered completed, but the bullish trend in the euro has not. Thus, the European currency may pull the pound higher, although the pound itself has been rising quite well in recent weeks. The bulls bounced from bullish imbalance 1, bullish imbalance 10, and twice from bullish imbalance 11. A large number of buy signals were formed. There are no bearish patterns above for the pound—there is nothing to stop the rise. Meanwhile, a new support zone has formed below: imbalance 12. Therefore, I expect growth toward the yearly highs—around the 1.3765 level.

On Wednesday, there was no news background, and this time the bullish traders did not launch an attack. After all, it's also time to celebrate and relax, and tomorrow is Christmas. However, new graphical buy signals may still appear before the end of the year, and the growth itself may continue.

In the U.S., the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite difficult. The shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only until the end of January. There has been no U.S. labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be considered positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the most recent labor market data allow for a fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy in January. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and push back toward the yearly highs.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive news background for the U.S. dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. That is why I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong decline that lasted two months. Too many risk factors remain hanging like dead weight over the dollar. The current bullish trend can be considered complete, as prices fell below two lows (from May 12 and August 1), but what will drive the bears to push the pound further down? Precisely because I cannot answer this question, I do not believe that the dollar's decline process will continue. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound sterling can be reconsidered.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 25, the economic calendar contains no notable events, and the market will be closed. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The picture for the pound is starting to look more pleasing to the eye. Three bullish patterns have played out, signals have been formed, and traders can maintain long positions. I see no fundamental reasons for a bearish trend in the near future.

A resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected as early as imbalance zone 1. At this point, the pound has already reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, and imbalance 11. As a potential upside target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, although the pound could rise much higher—albeit already next year. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be reconsidered, but for now I see no reason to do so.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 24-28, 2025: sell below 1.1800 (double top - 6/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading at 1.1790, showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum. Hence, a technical correction is expected in the coming days, which could reach the 200 EMA around 1.1670.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro has formed a double top pattern, which could mean a strong technical correction in the coming days.

If the euro price consolidates above 1.1800, we could look for opportunities to buy, and the euro could reach 1.1840.

The euro could encounter strong resistance around 1.1840 or 1.1800. A move below both levels could be seen as a signal to open short positions, and the euro is expected to reach the psychological level of 1.1500 in the medium term.

Our outlook will be bearish, and as long as the euro trades below the double top pattern, we will target 1.1779, 1.1756, where the 21SMA is located, 1.1718, and finally 1.1670.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for ETHEREUM for December 24-28, 2025: buy above $2,900 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

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Ethereum is trading around $2,928, below the 21 SMA and awaiting a technical rebound as positive signals are observed for the coming days.

In the coming hours, we could look for opportunities to buy Ether if the price consolidates above $2,900, then it could reach $2,979 or even reach the 200 EMA around $3,081.

According to the H4 chart, a symmetrical triangle pattern is forming, so a break above this pattern could confirm the upward movement, and a break below $2,875 could confirm the downward movement.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions for the coming days.

A consolidation above the psychological level of $3,000 could favor a recovery, and Ethereum could reach the 3/8 Murray at $3,437.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 24-28, 2025: sell below $4,495 (21 SMA - +1/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,491, showing signs of exhaustion in its upward momentum after reaching an all-time high of $4,526. XAU/USD may struggle to continue rising as it has reached the top of the upward trend channel formed since December 8, so a technical correction towards the 21 SMA at $4,434 is expected in the coming hours.

If gold reaches +1/8 Murray located at $4,531 or the top of the uptrend channel around $4,540, it could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

On the H4 chart, we can see that gold left a gap at the beginning of the week around $4,339, which could lead to a sharp decline in the coming days.

If gold resumes its bearish cycle at current price levels around $4,491, we could expect it to reach $4,451 and $4,434. Moreover, it could even return and find good support around the bottom of the uptrend channel located at $4,415.

A technical rebound above $4,434 or $4,415 could be seen as an opportunity to enter long positions with a target at $4,531.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. So, the odds are that gold will resume its bullish cyclein the coming days, after any pullback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 24-28, 2025: buy above $86,000 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $87,237 below the 2/8 Murray support and testing the support of the downtrend channel formed since early December, which was broken.

After a sharp breakout from this trend channel, Bitcoin managed to rebound to $90,000, but lost momentum and found it difficult to break above the 200 EMA. Therefore, below this level, we are seeing a technical correction.

If Bitcoin falls below $86,000 and consolidates below this zone, it could be seen as a clear signal to sell with a short-term target at the 1/8 Murray around $81,250.

On the contrary, if the price consolidates above the 21 SMA located at $88,383, we could expect it to continue rising until BTC reaches the 200 EMA located at $90,997. The price could even exceed this level and reach the 4/8 Murray around the psychological level of $100,000.

The outlook for Bitcoin is positive as the Eagle indicator is showing a bullish signal, so BTC/USD could recover above $87,500 – 86,500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The U.S. Dollar Continues to Experience Problems

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The U.S. dollar continues to experience difficulties, and recent statements from central bank officials have only added to the pressure.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve official Stephen Miran said that the U.S. central bank risks triggering a recession if it does not continue cutting interest rates next year. "If we don't cut interest rates, I think we're taking a risk," Miran said in an interview. He added that he does not foresee an economic downturn in the near future, although rising unemployment should push Fed officials toward further rate cuts.

Miran's comments came at a time when a fairly solid report on U.S. economic growth was released. However, inflation, while showing signs of slowing, remains above the Fed's target level. At the same time, the labor market is facing challenges, with rising unemployment serving as direct evidence. In Miran's view, this could be a harbinger of more serious problems.

Miran's position is not unanimous within the Fed's leadership. Some members of the Federal Open Market Committee, on the contrary, favor keeping rates at their current level, arguing that inflation still needs to be brought under control. In their opinion, cutting rates could lead to a new round of inflationary pressure and destabilize financial markets.

"The unemployment rate may have risen even further. New data should push Fed officials toward easing monetary policy," the policymaker said. "After policymakers cut interest rates three times since September this year by a total of 75 basis points, the need to cut the rate by half a percentage point at the next Fed meeting at the end of next month has diminished," Miran added. "At some point, we will reach a territory where we can start doing micro-management instead of large-scale cuts. I don't know whether we've reached that level yet or whether it will take a few more cuts, but we're definitely moving in the right direction."

Let me remind you that this month the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, but officials' views on further action remain deeply divided: most are forecasting only one more cut next year. Recent public remarks indicate that the majority intend to keep rates unchanged in January, waiting for greater clarity on the economic outlook.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking through the 1.1805 level. Only this would allow them to target a test of 1.1830. From there, the pair could move up to 1.1860, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1901. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1775 level. If there is no support there, it would be advisable to wait for a retest of the 1.1754 low or to open long positions from 1.1729.

Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only this will allow them to target 1.3590, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.3622 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of the 1.3505 level. If they succeed, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3475 low, with the prospect of a move toward 1.3445.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.87 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair did not rise significantly, as trading remained within the channel.

In the second half of the day, weekly data on the number of new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States are expected to be released. These figures are extremely important, as they represent one of the most up-to-date indicators of labor market health. However, this report should not be given too much weight—especially ahead of the Christmas holidays. Only strong and unexpected deviations from the consensus forecast are capable of triggering volatility in financial markets and affecting the value of the U.S. currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point is reached around 155.99 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 156.43 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.43, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). Further growth of the pair can be expected as part of the trend continuation. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.76 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 155.99 and 156.43 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below (or update of) the 155.76 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.35 level, where I plan to exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today in the event of weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.99 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.76 and 155.35 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US dollar: GDP and expectations for Fed easing

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The US dollar is suffering from increasing pressure due to the growing divergence in expectations surrounding interest rates in the US and the eurozone. The European Central Bank is preparing for a rate increase in 2026, while the Federal Reserve plans to continue its rate cuts, creating a stark contrast for the American currency.

The swap markets expect an ECB rate increase of 0.06 percentage points by the end of 2026—a dramatic turnaround in just one week. This reflects confidence in the resilience of inflation and decent economic growth in the eurozone. At the same time, the Federal Reserve aims to ensure a "soft landing," with two more rate cuts anticipated.

Global dynamics are intensifying pressure on the dollar. Australia and Canada are considering rate hikes, and the Bank of England is expected to halt rate cuts by the summer of 2026. Analysts describe 2026 as a potential "turning point" for central banks outside the US. If the gap between interest rates narrows, demand for the low-yielding dollar could drop even further. In 2025, the currency had already fallen by more than 8% against major currencies.

Dollar faces growing pressure ahead of Christmas

The US dollar remains under pressure ahead of Christmas. Before the opening of today's American trading session, futures on the dollar index (USDX) are trading at the closing price of the previous trading day and near the 97.85 mark.

Today, trading volumes are low as market participants prepare for the holiday season. US exchange floors are operating shorter trading hours: they will close earlier than usual and remain closed tomorrow. The holidays when Forex is closed include Christmas (December 25) and New Year (January 1). On all other business days (Monday to Friday), Forex is open, but trader activity and trading volumes will be low.

Today's economic calendar does not feature any important macroeconomic data. Reports will be released only next week and, even then, in very limited quantities. Only starting next Monday (January 5) high-priority macro data will be published.

However, traders will still pay attention to the US labor market's weekly figures being released today (at 13:30 GMT) regarding the number of jobless claims. Labor market data typically has a notable impact on dollar dynamics. A decrease in unemployment claims usually has a positive effect on the dollar, and vice versa when the figures rise.

Nonetheless, due to the pre-holiday atmosphere, the reaction to this publication will likely be short-lived, although sharp movements can still occur in a thin market.

Meanwhile, market participants are analyzing the macroeconomic statistics released yesterday. For instance, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Tuesday that the country's GDP grew by 4.3% (year-over-year) in the third quarter, significantly above market forecasts of 3.3% and an acceleration from the 3.8% growth seen in the second quarter. The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% compared to the previous quarter, aligning with expectations.

The markets reacted mixed: the dollar initially surged from daily lows but then pulled back and remained steady below the 98.00 mark after a weekly decline of around 1%. Other macro data revealed that durable goods orders fell by 2.2% month-over-month in October, while industrial production increased by 0.2% in November.

Political and monetary comments added uncertainty. President Donald Trump stated on social media that critics would not be able to lead the Federal Reserve and expressed a desire for the new chair to lower interest rates given favorable conditions. White House advisor Kevin Hassett noted that the Fed is not lowering rates fast enough in light of stronger-than-expected economic growth. Meanwhile, Fed officials, including Board member Stephen Mirando, indicate a gradual reduction in disagreements regarding future rate cuts.

The CME FedWatch tool assesses the likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 at around 70%, with market participants pricing in two rate cuts, despite positive economic data. However, preliminary estimates suggest that any rate cuts will occur gradually rather than abruptly.

Conclusions and outlook

Thus, the US economy demonstrates decent economic growth rates, although the recovery is uneven. Positive dynamics are largely linked to increased business investments in new technologies and equipment, particularly in the field of artificial intelligence. At the same time, consumer spending, especially among low- and middle-income households, remains weak due to rising inflationary risks and a lack of new job creation.

The US economy is firmly on path to recovery, but its future trajectory depends on many factors, including global trade relationships, domestic monetary policy, and the state of labor and capital markets. Further dollar weakening is forecasted, while economists anticipate weaker GDP figures in the fourth quarter, as the government shutdown may have negatively impacted the economy.

The dollar's decline could either accelerate or slow down, depending on the results of upcoming macroeconomic data releases.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Outflows from spot ETFs intensified by year-end

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According to data, in the run-up to the Christmas holidays, there is a net outflow of funds from American spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Data from SoSoValue shows that on Tuesday, a net outflow of $188.6 million was recorded from spot Bitcoin ETFs, extending the negative streak to four consecutive days. The largest outflow among the funds was seen in BlackRock's IBIT, which faced outflows of $157.3 million. Outflows were also reported for Fidelity's FBTC, Grayscale's GBTC, and Bitwise's BITB.

In total, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $497.1 million last week, offsetting an inflow of $286.6 million for the week ending December 12.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, a net outflow of $95.5 million was recorded from spot Ethereum ETFs, compared to an inflow of $84.6 million the day before. The leader in outflows was Grayscale's ETHE, which had $50.9 million exits.

Although these outflows are not critical in scale, they are certainly not beneficial for traders hoping for a year-end Santa Claus rally. Many experts point to the cyclical nature of the crypto market, where periods of rapid growth are inevitably followed by corrections, emphasizing that outflows from ETFs do not necessarily indicate a negative trend for the entire market; rather, they may signify a shift in liquidity to other instruments, such as decentralized platforms or direct investments in cryptocurrency.

It is important to note that the current situation differs from previous pre-holiday periods. In particular, the influence of institutional investors on the crypto market has significantly increased, and their behavior undoubtedly impacts the overall dynamics. Therefore, a more accurate assessment of the situation requires considering a broad range of factors, including macroeconomic trends, geopolitical conditions, and regulatory changes.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $87,400 level, which opens a direct path to $89,600, and from there it's just a step away to $92,300. The furthest target will be the peak around $95,000, with a breakout at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $85,500 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $83,220, with the furthest target being the $81,200 area.

As for the technical picture of Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the $2,997 level opens a direct road to $3,105. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,233, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $2,887 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $2,763, with the furthest target being the $2,684 region.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3507 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential—especially within the context of an uptrend. The second test of 1.3507 took place when the MACD was in the oversold zone, which led to the implementation of Buy Scenario No. 2 for the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.

Against the backdrop of a lack of any UK statistics, the British pound managed to hold its ground, showing only a slight rise against the U.S. dollar. This can be explained by the general sluggishness of trading ahead of the Christmas holidays, when market liquidity declines and investors prefer to lock in profits rather than open new positions. The absence of economic news from the UK left the pound sterling without clear guidance, allowing it to consolidate within a narrow range.

In the second half of the day, we are expecting data on weekly initial jobless claims in the United States. These figures are particularly important, as they serve as one of the most timely indicators of labor market conditions. Economists and investors closely monitor these data to assess the current situation and forecast future trends. However, today's figures are unlikely to carry much weight. A high number of initial claims may indicate slowing economic growth and a potential rise in unemployment, which in turn could put pressure on the U.S. dollar. On the other hand, a low number of claims points to a stable or improving labor market, supporting economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point is reached around 1.3527 (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.3567 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3567, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). A rise in the pound today can only be expected if U.S. data are very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3504 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3527 and 1.3567 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below (or update of) the 1.3504 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3471 level, where I plan to exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound today may return only as part of a corrective move.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3527 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3504 and 1.3471 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Trading Advice for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1785 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

The pre-holiday calm in the eurozone associated with the approaching Christmas has affected the volatility of the EUR/USD pair. When there is a lack of fundamental information, technical analysis becomes especially important. However, under conditions of limited liquidity supply, it is unlikely that one should expect any dramatic changes in the market.

In the second half of the day, weekly data on initial jobless claims in the United States are expected to be released. The likelihood that these data will have a significant impact on market dynamics is low. Most market participants will probably prefer to refrain from active trading operations, waiting for more meaningful news and assessments of the global economic outlook. Thus, today's U.S. unemployment data release appears to be more of a formal event than a real factor capable of changing the current market situation.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1809 level (green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1855. At the 1.1855 level, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected within the trend after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1793 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1809 and 1.1855 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1793 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1750 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1809 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1793 and 1.1750 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the GBP/JPY pair is attracting sellers, trading above the round 210.00 level. The Japanese yen received a short-term boost after the publication of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's October meeting, which emphasized consensus on the need to continue raising rates if economic forecasts are met. At its December meeting, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75%, a 30-year high, while leaving the door open for further monetary tightening. At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty strengthens the yen's status as a safe-haven asset, thereby weighing on the GBP/JPY pair.

On the British pound side, the Bank of England cut interest rates last Thursday. The narrow 5–4 vote in favor of a 25-basis-point cut in the benchmark rate to 3.75% points to divisions within the committee, especially following last week's surprise inflation data. This reduced expectations of more aggressive policy easing next year and had a positive impact on the pound sterling. In addition, a favorable risk appetite may limit gains in the Japanese yen and support GBP/JPY.

Therefore, before confirming that spot prices have reached a near-term peak and opening bearish positions, it would be prudent to wait for further selling, especially given sluggish year-end trading.

Market participants are now focused on a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday, which may provide clues about the future direction of monetary policy. In addition, the release of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index on Friday and other key macroeconomic data from Japan will play a crucial role in the short-term dynamics of the yen and could significantly affect the GBP/JPY cross rate.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive but are in overbought territory, confirming a bullish outlook with a corrective pullback. Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for the GBP/JPY pair remains to the upside.

The table below shows the percentage changes of the Japanese yen (JPY) against major currencies for the current day. Among the strongest performances, the yen stands out against the U.S. dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 24, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802, rebounded from it, and then posted a slight decline. The drop in euro quotes coincided with the release of U.S. reports, which we will discuss below. By Wednesday morning, the pair had returned to the 1.1795–1.1802 level. Today, a second rebound from this zone would once again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1718. A consolidation above the zone would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1919.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave broke above the peak of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls have regained confidence and are attacking with enthusiasm. The Fed's easing of monetary policy is putting pressure on the dollar, while the ECB is unlikely to create any problems for the euro in the near future.

On Tuesday, there was a news background. Traders could have expected the dollar to strengthen after the release of strong U.S. GDP data for the third quarter. The second estimate is not final, so in a month the market could see a completely different figure from the current +4.3% quarter-on-quarter. Nevertheless, U.S. economic growth turned out to be much stronger than expected, which triggered cautious bearish attacks. Why be cautious? Because in addition to the GDP report, two equally important reports were released—on durable goods orders and industrial production. The former declined by 2.2% in October versus forecasts of -1.5%, while the latter fell by 0.1% month-on-month against expectations of +0.1%. As a result, these two reports neutralized all the positive impact from the 4.3% growth in the U.S. economy. The dollar's rise was short-lived and very restrained. Further bullish attacks showed that bulls are ready for a new offensive toward the end of the year within the current bullish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and resumed its growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to some decline toward the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. A consolidation above 1.1829 would increase the likelihood of further euro growth. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268,000, while short positions total 129,000—giving bulls more than a twofold advantage.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they are causing numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States—for example, the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and amid Jerome Powell's expected resignation in May next year.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 24, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is possible if prices rebound from the 1.1795–1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1718. Buy positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level with a target at 1.1795–1.1802. The target has been reached. If the price closes above the 1.1795–1.1802 level, positions can be kept open with targets at 1.1829 and 1.1919.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 24, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday first managed to consolidate above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3470, and then also rebounded from above it. Thus, the growth process continued toward the 1.3539 level. A rebound of quotes from the 1.3533–1.3539 level would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the 1.3470 level. A consolidation above the 1.3533–1.3539 zone would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3595.

The wave situation has once again turned "bullish" after the completion of a sideways movement. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave managed to break the previous high. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the information background in the United States also leaves much to be desired. For a week, bulls and bears were locked in a tug-of-war and remained in relative balance, but a week before the New Year, the bulls launched a new offensive.

The news background on Tuesday did not encourage new attacks by the bulls—or at least it was not unambiguous. To begin with, the growth process started back on Monday, when the only event of the day was the UK GDP report, which showed a rather mediocre figure. On Tuesday, before the release of U.S. reports, the British pound continued to rise while the dollar declined. The reports themselves on durable goods orders, industrial production, and GDP had virtually no impact on the current chart picture. We saw a corrective pullback on the statistics, but then the bulls continued to push their agenda. In my view, the U.S. dollar will continue to decline in 2026, but even in 2025 its fall may not yet be complete. Although America is not experiencing problems with economic growth, it is facing serious issues with the labor market, industrial production, and political stability.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair managed to consolidate above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. A bearish divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, which could trigger a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions rose by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions is currently effectively as follows: 60 thousand versus 135 thousand. As we can see, bears have dominated since the beginning of December, but the British pound appears to have already exhausted its downside potential. At the same time, the situation with positions on the euro currency is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency occasionally enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy in order to stop the rise in unemployment and stimulate the creation of new jobs. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be certain that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 24, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be extremely weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair today is possible on a rebound from the 1.3533–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3470. I previously recommended buying on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level with targets at 1.3425, 1.3470, and 1.3539. All targets except the last one have been reached. Today, long positions can be kept open with a target at 1.3595 if the price manages to close above the 1.3539 level.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Is Back to His Old Ways

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Yesterday, the dollar quickly resumed its decline against risk assets, barely having time to properly enjoy the strong U.S. GDP data.

This happened immediately after Donald Trump said that he expects the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This is yet another signal that the president wants a Federal Reserve chief whose policy would be aimed at lowering borrowing costs. Let me remind you that the deadline for Trump to announce his choice to replace Jerome Powell is approaching. "I want my new Fed Chairman to cut interest rates when the market is booming, not destroy the market for no reason," Trump wrote on social media. "Anyone who disagrees with me will never become Fed Chairman!"

Trump has repeatedly stated that he is interested in overcoming recent trends in which encouraging economic data are sometimes accompanied by market sell-offs due to fears of inflation and corresponding interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. "In the old days, when good news came out, the market went up," Trump wrote. "Now, when good news comes out, the market goes down because everyone thinks interest rates will be raised immediately to deal with potential inflation."

For this reason, yesterday's decline in the dollar showed a clear correlation with President Trump's remarks. His persistent calls for interest rate cuts are not merely economic analysis, but rather a political maneuver aimed at stimulating economic growth. Investors perceived this as pressure on the independence of the central bank, which certainly had a negative impact on the attractiveness of the dollar. However, it would be wrong to reduce everything to political factors alone. Despite strong GDP data, concerns remain about the sustainability of U.S. economic growth toward the end of this year due to the shutdown. Inflationary pressure, trade wars, and geopolitical uncertainty—all of these factors will continue to restrain investor enthusiasm.

As noted above, according to the data, U.S. gross domestic product adjusted for inflation grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding all estimates.

Last week, the president said that he has narrowed his list of candidates for the position of Fed Chairman to three or four contenders and expects to make a decision fairly quickly, announcing it within the next few weeks. Trump said that Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, and Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, are among the leading candidates for the post. He also interviewed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and spoke highly of his work.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about breaking through the 1.1805 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1830. From there, it would be possible to climb to 1.1860, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1901. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1775 level. If no one is there, it would be a good idea to wait for a retest of the low at 1.1754 or to open long positions from 1.1729.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only this will allow them to target 1.3590, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The most distant target will be the 1.3622 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3505. If they succeed, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the low at 1.3475, with the prospect of moving on to 1.3445.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market gets boost from Trump's remarks

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Strong economic data and backing from the president—what more is needed to continue the S&P 500 rally? The broad market index marked a new record close amid an acceleration of US GDP to 4.3% in the third quarter. This result represents the best performance in two years and significantly exceeds Bloomberg analysts' expectations of 3.2%. The US economy is coping with a cooling labor market, which is beneficial for stocks.

According to Donald Trump, the stock indices' reaction to the impressive GDP figures could have been stronger. However, markets have recently responded to good news with skepticism, arguing that economic strength will lead to rising inflation and prompt the Fed to maintain interest rates. In reality, the new Federal Reserve chair will likely lower rates to reward investors for their success and support the stock market.

S&P 500 and Cyclical Stocks Index Dynamics

Presidential support is invaluable. However, without a strong economy, it is challenging to expect the S&P 500 to maintain its bullish trend for a fourth consecutive year. According to a survey of over sixty Bloomberg experts, US GDP is projected to expand by 2% or more in 2026, supported by cheap oil, which will also help slow inflation. This combination allows investors to rotate securities within their portfolios, replacing technology companies with cyclical stocks, which are currently outperforming the S&P 500. Investment advisors are particularly favoring JP Morgan, equipment manufacturer Caterpillar, as well as retailers Gap and Dollar Tree.

The current year has been significant for the MSCI All Country World ex-USA Index, which surged by 29%, outpacing the S&P 500 by 11.5 percentage points. If these numbers hold through the end of December, the gap will be the largest since 2009.

S&P 500 and Global Equity Markets Dynamics

In 2026, this divergence may widen even further. Germany, Japan, and China are not holding back on fiscal stimulus, and the conclusion of the armed conflict in Ukraine would reduce geopolitical risks and positively impact the European economy. The gradual increase in the Bank of Japan's overnight rate does not intimidate investors, as its monetary policy remains ultra-accommodative.

Next year, the S&P 500 will face stronger competition and will need to exert more effort to maintain its upward trend. However, does it really matter what will happen tomorrow? Today, the broad market index is enjoying the Christmas rally.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has hit a new local high at 6,900. The October peak of 6,925 is within reach. A successful break above this level would pave the way for a continued upward trajectory toward the previously mentioned targets of 6,990 and 7,100. Traders are advised to maintain a focus on buying.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ maintain upside momentum

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.46%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.16%.

The MSCI All Country Index reached a record high, as data indicating the fastest growth in the US economy in two years bolstered corporate profit prospects. On Wednesday, the MSCI All Country World Index rose for the fifth consecutive day, increasing by 21% since the beginning of the year. The Asia-Pacific stocks index increased by 0.2%, largely driven by technology companies. However, trading volumes are expected to be relatively low today, especially with the Christmas holidays approaching.

The rise in commodity prices was even more pronounced: gold climbed above $4,500 per ounce for the first time before partially retracing its gains. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has recently increased due to the US blockade on oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Platinum and silver also reached record levels, while copper surpassed $12,000 per metric ton for the first time.

Risk appetite remained intact as the year comes to a close, even though stronger-than-expected US economic growth data reduced expectations for a near-term cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Following earlier concerns about inflated valuations of technology stocks in light of the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will demonstrate robust profit growth in 2026.

If consumer demand holds up throughout the holiday season and the fourth quarter, it should positively impact US GDP and corporate earnings. However, despite the US economy maintaining growth momentum through mid-year, fueled by strong consumer demand, the government shutdown in October-November is expected to negatively affect growth in the fourth quarter.

In other market segments, Treasury bonds saw slight price increases ahead of a seven-year bond auction, while the dollar index fell for the third consecutive day. The dollar is heading toward its worst annual performance in eight years, with fewer and fewer reasons for buying it. Yesterday, Trump stated that he expects the Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates. This is the latest indication that the president is seeking a candidate committed to reducing borrowing costs, as the announcement regarding his replacement for Jerome Powell approaches next year. Currently, the market assigns less than a 13% probability to a rate cut by the Fed in January.

From a technical standpoint, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,914. Achieving this will signal further growth and open the door to a swing up to a new level of $6,930. Additionally, a priority for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,946 mark to strengthen their positions. In the event of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,896. A break below this level could quickly drive the trading instrument back down to $6,883 and pave the way to $6,871.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.18 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a slight upward movement of the pair.

Yesterday's news that the U.S. economy posted the most significant growth led to a strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the yen. However, the correction did not last long, and pressure on the pair returned.

Today, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which helped the yen stabilize against the U.S. dollar, increasing pressure on the USD/JPY pair. I would like to remind you that at the BOJ's last meeting this year, interest rates were raised. Higher interest rates in Japan make Japanese currency assets more attractive to investors, potentially leading to capital outflows from other countries.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 155.87 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.29 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.29, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and serious USD/JPY pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.64, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 155.87 and 156.29.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 155.64 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.21, where I intend to exit the shorts and also open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell from as high a point as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.87 twice, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.64 and 155.21.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3495 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, confirming the entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 pips.

The pound weakened and the dollar strengthened after news that the U.S. economy posted its fastest growth in several years in the third quarter of this year. GDP increased by 4.3% year-over-year, while economists had expected an increase of only 3.2%. This surge, following growth in the previous two quarters, bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy's resilience despite global challenges such as inflation and geopolitical instability. Strong consumer demand, especially in the services sector, as well as increased investment in business equipment and software, were key drivers of this growth.

The upward potential for the GBP/USD pair may continue today. However, the absence of economic data from the UK does not guarantee a one-sided movement for the GBP/USD pair. Global factors, such as market sentiment, political events, and U.S. news, will continue to significantly influence currency rates. Investors will also closely monitor technical indicators and support/resistance levels to identify potential entry and exit points. Furthermore, the lack of fundamental data from the UK may increase the volatility of the GBP/USD pair as traders will focus more on speculative factors and market movements.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3527 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3567 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3567, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting strong growth for the pound today can continue in the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3507 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3527 and 1.3567.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.3507 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3471 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers may emerge during the correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3527 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3507 and 1.3471.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading European Currency

The price test at 1.1782 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Yesterday's news that the U.S. economy posted the most significant growth in the last two years triggered a rise in the dollar's exchange rate. This rise was supported by stable consumer spending. The published data showed that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.3% year over year. The main part of economic activity in the U.S., namely consumer spending, rose significantly due to declining inflation, indicating sustained confidence among American consumers. The GDP increase was also supported by rising government spending and export operations.

Today's lull in European reports does not preclude the continuation of the upward trend for EUR/USD. The absence of macroeconomic releases does not halt market activity. Likely, market participants will focus on the overall market environment, geopolitics, and news.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching a price around 1.1809 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.1855. At the point of 1.1855, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be achieved after good news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price 1.1785 is tested twice, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1809 and 1.1855.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1785 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1750, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some downward pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price 1.1809 is tested twice consecutively, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1785 and 1.1750.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations for December 24

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Bitcoin buyers continue to face challenges. After the asset failed to return to the $90,000 mark once again, the pressure has only intensified. Trading around $87,000 opens up good prospects for further declines toward $85,000 and even $83,000 by the end of the year. It seems that the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally before the New Year will not happen.

Meanwhile, according to data from CryptoQuant, whales have stopped selling Bitcoin. This indicates that selling pressure has nearly disappeared. Large players actively locked in profits during BTC's decline from $124,000 to $84,000, but the market has now entered a phase of stabilization. However, this stabilization does not mean an immediate resumption of the rally. Instead, it is a consolidation period in which the market is seeking new drivers for further growth. It may require the emergence of new institutional investors or groundbreaking technological solutions in the blockchain sector to restore confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential.

It is also important to consider the macroeconomic context and not forget about regulatory factors. All critical issues have been pushed to next year, with mid-January as the timeframe for resolution, so it is unlikely that anything positive will emerge from the market before then.

Regarding the intra-day strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to focus on any significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continued development of the long-term bullish market, which hasn't gone anywhere.

The strategy and conditions for short-term trading are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $87,300, targeting growth to the level of $88,400. At $88,400, I plan to exit my purchases and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $86,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $87,300 and $88,400.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $86,700, targeting a decline to $85,900. At $85,900, I plan to exit my sales and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $87,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $86,700 and $85,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $2,940, targeting growth to the level of $2,969. At $2,969, I plan to exit my purchases and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,919 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $2,940 and $2,969.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $2,919, targeting a decline to $2,890. At $2,890, I plan to exit my sales and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,940 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $2,919 and $2,890.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 24. The Pound Continues to Reach New Highs

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3490 level and planned to make decisions based on it. The rise and breakout at 1.3490 occurred without a retest, so I was unable to get an entry point for long positions. In the second half of the day, a false breakout around 1.3481 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, resulting in a gain of more than 30 pips.

For Opening Long Positions on GBP/USD:

Yesterday's reaction to the US GDP data, which strengthened the US dollar, was short-lived, and buyers of the pound quickly capitalized on it, turning the market in their favor. As a result, we are now observing a new monthly high. The further upward potential of the GBP/USD pair may continue during the European session since there are again no significant fundamental data from the UK, which will favor buyers. In the case of a slight downward correction, I expect the first signs of buyers to appear around the support level of 1.3508. A false breakout there would be a good opportunity to open long positions, targeting further growth towards the resistance at 1.3554. A breakout and retest of this range from above will increase the chances of strengthening GBP/USD, which would lead to the triggering of stop orders by sellers and provide an appropriate entry point for long positions with the potential to reach 1.3590. The furthest target will be the 1.3622 area, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no activity from buyers at 1.3508, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to movement towards the next support level of 1.3478. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from the low of 1.3447, targeting a correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

For Opening Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers have shown some activity, but they have been unable to maintain control over the market, even in the face of such strong reports, suggesting further development of the bullish trend. For this reason, caution is advised when considering selling. If the pair continues to rise, bears can be expected at the 1.3554 resistance level. A false breakout there will provide a reason to sell GBP/USD, targeting a drop towards the support level of 1.3508, where the moving averages, which favor the bulls, are located. A breakout and retest from below this range after weak data will deal a more significant blow to buyer positions, leading to the triggering of stop orders and opening the pathway to 1.3478. The furthest target will be the 1.3447 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD continues to rise and bears do not act at 1.3554, buyers will continue to build the trend, potentially leading to a surge towards 1.3590. I plan to open short positions there only after a false breakout. If there is no downward movement even at that level, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3622, but only in anticipation of a correction of 30-35 pips down within the day.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is from December 9.

In the latest COT report, there was an increase in both long and short positions. The report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 8,067 to 60,319, while short non-commercial positions increased by 3,402 to 135,834. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions increased by 23,795.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is occurring above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating growth for the pound.
• Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3478 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average (Period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (Period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, including individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-Commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 24. The Euro Withstood Pressure

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1776 level and planned to make decisions based on it. The breakout at 1.1776 occurred, but there was no retest, which meant I missed the opportunity to buy the euro. In the second half of the day, bears appeared around 1.1802, providing a good entry point to sell the euro, which led to a move of more than 30 pips.

For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The US dollar reacted yesterday with a temporary strengthening to news that the US economy posted the fastest growth in two years in the third quarter, supported by steady consumer and business spending. According to the data, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew by 4.3% year-on-year, exceeding all forecasts. However, dollar buyers failed to defend their positions, resulting in another increase in the EUR/USD pair by the close of the US session. Today, there is little data from the Eurozone, so the pair may continue its upward trend. If there is a slight decline in EUR/USD during the correction, I expect to see the first signs of buyers around the support level at 1.1775, as formed by yesterday's trading. Only after a false breakout there can we get an entry point for long positions, targeting recovery towards the resistance at 1.1807, where trading is currently taking place. A breakout and retest of this range, as discussed above, will confirm the appropriate actions for buying euros with expectations of a larger rally to 1.1840. The furthest target will be the 1.1882 area, where I plan to take profits. If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying at 1.1775, pressure on the pair will increase, potentially driving it towards the next support level at 1.1754. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for buying euros. I plan to buy EUR/USD immediately on a bounce from the low of 1.1729, targeting an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.

For Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers of the pound showed some activity yesterday but could not maintain control of the market, even amid robust reports indicating the continued development of the bullish trend. For this reason, caution should be exercised when considering short positions. If the pair continues to rise, bears may be expected around the 1.1807 resistance level. A false breakout there will provide an opportunity to sell EUR/USD, targeting a decline towards the support level of 1.1775, where moving averages support the bulls. A breakout and retest from below this range after weak data will deliver a more significant blow to buyers' positions, resulting in the triggering of stop orders and opening the pathway to 1.1754. The furthest target will be the 1.1729 area, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD continues to rise and bears do not act at 1.1807, buyers will have a good opportunity to extend the bullish market. In that case, short positions should be delayed until the larger level of 1.1840. Selling there will only occur after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1882, targeting a 30-35-pip downward correction.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders (COT) is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is only from December 9.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. However, for strategy development, this data is not applicable and therefore does not require special attention. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 18,446 to 268,118, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 11,889 to 129,330. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 12,889.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is occurring above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating growth for the euro.
• Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1775 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average (Period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (Period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, including individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-Commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.