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Uniswap has the potential to be under pressure towards its nearest support level. Friday, January 09, 2026

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[Uniswap]

With RSI(144) condition in the Neutral-Bearish area and EMA(950) & EMA(200) which forming a Death Cross, It can be confirmed that today Uniswap is under pressure from sellers to at least reach its nearest support level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 5.986

2. Resistance. 1 : 5.740

3. Pivot : 5.558

4. Support. 1 : 5.312

5. Support. 2 : 5.130

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 5.312, there is potential for weakness to 5.312.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 5.312 is also broken to the downside, Uniswap may continue weakening toward 4.884.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if Uniswap unexpectedly strengthens and breaks and closes above 5.986.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 5.546

EMA(200): 5.764

RSI(14) : 55.31

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, when the U.S. session opens, the following economic data will be released:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Building Permits - 20:30 WIB

US - Housing Starts - 20:30 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 22:00 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 22:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Litecoin cryptocurrency has the potential to weaken toward its nearest support level

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[Litecoin]

Although RSI(14) is in Neutral-Bullish, but with both EMAs which still form a Death Cross, indicating that sellers remain quite dominant in Litecoin.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 83.42

2. Resistance. 1 : 82.33

3. Pivot : 81.11

4. Support. 1 : 80.02

5. Support. 2 : 78.80

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 80.02, there is potential pressure toward 78.80.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 78.80 is broken, Litecoin could test 77.71.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if Litecoin strengthens until it breaks and closes above 83.42.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 81.28

EMA(200): 81.80

RSI(14) : 51.01

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, when the U.S. session opens, the following economic data will be released:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Building Permits - 20:30 WIB

US - Housing Starts - 20:30 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 22:00 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 22:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on January 9th? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports

There are quite a few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Friday, and among them some will be important. We should start with the European reports on industrial production in Germany and retail sales in the EU. These reports are not extremely important but could theoretically affect the value of the euro.

However, we want to remind beginner traders that currently we are observing a technical decline of the EUR/USD pair from the upper boundary of the sideways channel toward the lower boundary, and the market reacts very reluctantly to macroeconomic data.

In the United States, data will be released that cannot simply be ignored. At the same time, we do not rule out that a strong reaction may not follow, as the market continues to trade very passively. Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate are reports that have a direct impact on the Fed's monetary policy. The dollar does not need extremely positive values to continue rising, but even neutral readings from these indicators are difficult to expect at this time.

Analysis of Fundamental Events

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Friday: speeches by Philip Lane, Neel Kashkari, and Thomas Barkin. This year, several members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee have already made comments, but these comments are practically meaningless in the context of Powell's December position and the Fed as a whole, especially given the absence of new data on unemployment, inflation, and the labor market.

Labor market and unemployment data will be released today, but it is unlikely that Fed representatives will have enough time to analyze them and immediately comment. In any case, the Fed is not expected to cut the key rate in January, and the ECB is not expected to change the key rate during the first half of 2026.

Overall Conclusions

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline. The euro is within a downward trend, and the pound is moving along with it. However, today the American macroeconomic statistics will have a significant impact on market sentiment. Therefore, movements during the U.S. session can be unpredictable.

Basic Trading System Rules

1. Signal strength is determined by the time required to form the signal (a rebound or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may produce many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades must then be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is sufficient volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
7. After a move of 15–20 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is Shown on the Charts

• Support and resistance price levels – levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red lines – trend lines or channels that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – the histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator and can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution or positions should be closed to avoid sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade GBP/USD on January 9th? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Thursday Trade Analysis

GBP/USD 1H Chart

The GBP/USD pair also traded with minimal volatility and within a downward channel throughout Thursday. However, it cannot be said that the British pound is currently in a downtrend, even on the hourly timeframe. There is no downward trend line, and the pound has been falling for only three days. Moreover, it is very difficult to say that this decline is justified.

This week, there were no significant events in the United Kingdom, while in the United States the JOLTs and ADP labor market reports and the ISM business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors were released. All of these reports can be considered important or relatively important—that is, reports that should have triggered at least a moderate market reaction. In fact, out of the four reports, three turned out to be negative for the dollar, coming in below forecasts. However, the dollar has been rising for three consecutive days, ignoring the macroeconomic background.

Today, another set of U.S. labor market reports will be released, but with such low volatility we are not confident that there will be any interesting price movements today.

GBP/USD 5M Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed on Thursday. However, this was not due to high volatility or trending movements, but because the price encountered the 1.3437–1.3446 level and traded sideways for most of the day. All three trading signals were sell signals, so beginner traders could open short positions yesterday. Since the sell signals have not been canceled, short positions can be held on Friday.

How to Trade on Friday

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has consolidated below the trend line; however, we see that there is currently no downtrend. There are no global reasons for medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we also expect a resumption of the global 2025 uptrend, which could take the pair to the 1.4000 level within the next couple of months.

On Friday, beginner traders may remain in short positions with a target in the 1.3319–1.3331 level, as three sell signals were formed yesterday and a few more similar signals may be formed today. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3446 level will make long positions relevant, with a target of 1.3529.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels can currently be traded: 1.3043, 1.3096–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3212, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3437–1.3446, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763.

On Friday, no noteworthy events are scheduled in the United Kingdom, while in the United States the most important reports—Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate—will be released. They are very important, but they do not guarantee a strong price reaction.

Basic Trading System Rules

1. Signal strength is determined by the time required to form the signal (a rebound from or a breakout of a level). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened during the time period from the start of the European session until the middle of the U.S. session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 20 points), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
7. After the price moves 20 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Support and resistance price levels – levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red lines – trend lines or channels that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – the histogram and signal line serve as auxiliary indicators and can also be used as signal sources.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can have a strong impact on a currency pair's movement. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are the keys to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade EUR/USD on January 9th? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Thursday Trade Analysis

EUR/USD 1H Chart

The EUR/USD currency pair continues a very weak decline within a new downward trend. From the perspective of fundamental and macroeconomic analysis, we cannot say that the growth of the U.S. currency is justified. This week, several important reports were published in the United States, and most of them turned out to be disappointing. Geopolitical events around Venezuela are also difficult to count as positive factors for the dollar. However, even if we are mistaken, the market movement is too weak to be considered a reaction to specific events.

We believe the explanation is much simpler. A flat market persists on the daily timeframe. For six consecutive months, the price has been trading between 1.1400 and 1.1830. Several weeks ago, the euro once again failed to consolidate above the sideways channel, a reversal occurred near its upper boundary, and therefore we are now observing a purely technical move toward the lower boundary. That is the entire explanation. On Thursday, there was no important macroeconomic background, but today the most important U.S. labor market and unemployment reports will be released.

EUR/USD 5M Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, one sell signal was formed on Thursday, but total daily volatility amounted to only 41 points. Overall, further analysis is hardly necessary, as market movements were once again absent. A consolidation below the 1.1655–1.1666 level allowed—and still allows—beginner traders to open short positions, but at this pace the pair would take a week to reach the target level of 1.1584–1.1591.

How to Trade on Friday

On the hourly timeframe, a downward trend continues to form, as indicated by the trend line. The pair failed to break the 1.1800–1.1830 level, which is the upper boundary of the flat range on the daily timeframe, so technically the decline is justified and may continue all the way to 1.1400. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the U.S. dollar; therefore, we expect the pair to resume growth in the medium term. However, the flat market on the daily timeframe plays a dominant role.

On Friday, beginner traders can trade from the 1.1655–1.1666 level. A rebound from this area will allow opening short positions with a target of 1.1584–1.1591. A consolidation above this area will make long positions relevant with a target of 1.1745.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527–1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584–1.1591, 1.1655–1.1666, 1.1745–1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970–1.1988.

Today, a retail sales report will be released in the European Union, but what is the probability of a strong market reaction to this report? In the United States, data on Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment, wages, and consumer sentiment will be published. And we are not sure that even this data will force the market to move even slightly more actively.

Basic Trading System Rules

1. Signal strength is measured by the time required to form the signal (a rebound from or a break of a level). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened during the time period from the start of the European session until the middle of the U.S. session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 20 points), they should be considered as a support or resistance zone.
7. After the price moves 15 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is Shown on the Charts

• Support and resistance price levels – levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red lines – trend lines or channels that show the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – the histogram and signal line serve as auxiliary indicators and can also be used as signal sources.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can have a very strong impact on the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution or positions should be closed to avoid sharp price reversals against the prior move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are the keys to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview on January 9, 2026

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade with a downward bias and weak volatility on Thursday. There was no macroeconomic background that day, and Donald Trump had not yet carried out another military operation. The dollar has been rising steadily, but what is this: the beginning of a new trend with no solid basis, or just another correction?

Many traders believe that Friday will provide clear answers. We do not think so. The Non-Farm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate are, of course, very important, but they are more likely to have a long-term impact on the U.S. dollar. Today, we may see a sharp emotional reaction at the start of the U.S. trading session, but what should we expect from the reports themselves?

We believe that few people expect the unemployment rate to decline or the number of Non-Farm Payrolls to increase to 150–200 thousand in December. Only such figures could be considered clearly positive. At the same time, mediocre results may still be sufficient for growth in the U.S. currency. For example, if the unemployment rate remains unchanged and Non-Farm Payrolls amount to around 80 thousand versus forecasts near 60 thousand. Can such statistics be considered positive? No, because 80 thousand is still a very low figure. Non-Farm Payrolls is not an indicator where any value above zero or above the forecast is automatically positive. However, the market may react to perceived positivity. If the forecast is exceeded, it may be interpreted as positive momentum. Therefore, the dollar may rise even on weak readings in both reports. The key factor is that actual figures come in better than forecasts.

But how will today's reports affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plans? We believe that the weaker the December data, the higher the probability of more than one key interest rate cut in 2026. If the labor market is not recovering and is not creating enough jobs, the Fed will have to cut rates. Thus, in the short term, the U.S. currency may strengthen, but in the medium term it is likely to continue declining—especially against the European currency, whose central bank is extremely unlikely to cut rates even once in 2026.

The situation is different against the British pound, as the Bank of England is also continuing to ease policy. However, in our view, even this factor will not protect the dollar from the "Trump factor." If we are wrong about the destructive impact of the Trump factor on the dollar, new signs of a downward trend should appear on the daily timeframe. Meanwhile, the pound recently consolidated above the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines, which opens prospects for an upward trend—more precisely, for a resumption of the 2025 uptrend. We remain highly skeptical about any growth in the dollar, but we are ready to respond to any changes in the fundamental background and market conditions.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 79 points, which is considered "average" for the pound/dollar pair. Thus, on Friday, January 9, we expect price movement within a range bounded by 1.3348 and 1.3506. The higher linear regression channel has turned upward, indicating a recovery of the trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone six times in recent months and has formed multiple bullish divergences, repeatedly warning traders of the continuation of the upward trend.

Nearest support levels:

• S1 – 1.3428
• S2 – 1.3306
• S3 – 1.3184

Nearest resistance levels:

• R1 – 1.3550
• R2 – 1.3672
• R3 – 1.3794

Trading Recommendations

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume the 2025 upward trend, and its long-term outlook remains unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect growth in the U.S. currency. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3550 and 1.3672 remain relevant in the near term while the price stays above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions may be considered on technical grounds with a target of 1.3348.

From time to time, the U.S. currency shows corrections on a global scale, but for trend-based strengthening it needs signs of an end to the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations to the Illustrations

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.
• Moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.Murray levels are target levels for price movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will trade over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility readings.
• CCI indicator – entering the oversold zone (below ?250) or the overbought zone (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview on January 9, 2026

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The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its downward trend throughout Thursday but once again traded very weakly. At the beginning of the current week—and of the new year as a whole—we saw some increase in activity in the foreign exchange market, but Wednesday showed that it was too early to celebrate. Despite a strong and abundant macroeconomic backdrop, the EUR/USD pair showed volatility of just 29 points—laughably low. Thus, we once again return to two important factors that currently determine movements of the euro against the dollar: volatility and a flat market.

Volatility has been steadily declining over recent months, which is explained by the price remaining within the 1.1400–1.1830 sideways channel for six months. However, these factors are still better considered separately. At present, the 30-day average volatility is 49 points, which is extremely low. It should be understood that this is not a temporary calm but a long-term trend. Therefore, on any given trading day, traders currently cannot expect strong price movements.

A flat market is a separate issue altogether. Of course, a flat market on any instrument and timeframe is a completely normal phenomenon. However, in this case, it has lasted too long. We cannot influence this, so we continue to state the obvious. The clearest example of the market's reluctance to trade this week was Wednesday, when relatively important inflation data were released in the European Union, and relatively important ADP, JOLTS, and ISM Services reports were published in the United States. Some reports favored the euro, others favored the dollar, but by the end of the day the EUR/USD pair showed no desire to move either up or down. Therefore, we once again remind traders that regardless of the technical picture and trading signals, if there is no market movement, there is nothing to trade.

Today may become a "resolution," or it may turn into a disappointment. It is quite possible that the market does not want to open positions actively ahead of Friday, which will show the current state of the labor market and unemployment. At the same time, how many such Fridays and other important days have there been over the past six months? Throughout all this time, the price has remained in a sideways channel, and volatility has been steadily declining. Thus, it is entirely possible that for a short period of time (several hours) the market will become more active and we will see a move upward or downward (depending on the nature of U.S. statistics). However, if price movements are again weak or absent, or if volatility quickly returns to its usual levels, this should not come as a surprise.

From a technical perspective, the pair may continue to decline on both the 4-hour and daily timeframes. On the daily timeframe, the price reversed near the upper boundary of the flat range, so a decline toward the lower boundary would be justified. On the 4-hour timeframe, the pair is trading below the moving average.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of January 9 is 49 points and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1605 and 1.1703 on Friday. The higher linear regression channel is directed upward, but in practice a flat market on the daily timeframe continues. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone at the beginning of December, and a small pullback has already occurred. A bullish divergence was formed last week, indicating a resumption of the upward trend, but it remains unfulfilled.

Nearest support levels:

• S1 – 1.1658
• S2 – 1.1597
• S3 – 1.1536

Nearest resistance levels:

• R1 – 1.1719
• R2 – 1.1780
• R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations

The EUR/USD pair remains below the moving average, but an upward trend persists on all higher timeframes, while a flat market has continued for the sixth consecutive month on the daily timeframe. The global fundamental background remains highly important for the market and continues to be negative for the dollar. Over the past six months, the dollar has occasionally shown weak growth, but exclusively within the sideways channel. It lacks a fundamental basis for long-term strengthening.

With the price located below the moving average, small short positions may be considered on purely technical grounds with targets at 1.1605 and 1.1536. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.1830 (the upper boundary of the flat range on the daily timeframe), which has effectively already been tested but not broken.

Explanations to the Illustrations

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is considered strong.
• Moving average line (settings: 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for price movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will trade over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility readings.
• CCI indicator – entering the oversold zone (below ?250) or the overbought zone (above +250) signals that a trend reversal in the opposite direction may be approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for GBP/USD on January 9th

.GBP/USD 5M Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair, unlike EUR/USD, continues to maintain an upward trend. Over the past few days, the British currency has also declined, but this does not give the impression of a downtrend. The pound has returned, on shaky ground, to support in the form of the 1.3421–1.3437 level, which previously prevented the pair from continuing its decline twice. Thus, a third attempt to move south may also end in failure.

Let us recall that we do not consider the fundamental and macroeconomic background this week to be favorable for the dollar—neither events related to Trump nor U.S. macroeconomic data. Therefore, what we are observing may be a purely technical correction. For now, the price is also unable to move below the Senkou Span B line.

This week, only the Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate remain to be released; however, "to get through" them is a bit of an overstatement. Throughout the week, the market has shown a complete unwillingness to trade, and volatility continues to fall even in the traditionally active pound. Today, at the beginning of the U.S. trading session, market movements may be absolutely unpredictable, as traders will react to important reports—assuming they react at all rather than ignore them.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the last trading signal was formed on Wednesday, when the price broke through the critical line. Traders who opened short positions based on this signal could have made a profit of about 40 points on Thursday. A clear rebound from the 1.3421–1.3437 level has not yet occurred, so at the moment it is unclear in which direction the pound will trade on Friday.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years the sentiment of commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines, which represent the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and in most cases remain close to the zero level. At present, the lines are diverging, but non-commercial traders are currently dominating—with selling positions. Speculators are increasingly selling the pound, but as we have already said, it does not matter how low demand for the British currency is; demand for the U.S. dollar is often even lower.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policy, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (see illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and the Federal Reserve will in any case cut rates over the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will decrease one way or another. According to the latest COT report (dated December 23) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 1.6 thousand buy positions and closed 5.7 thousand sell positions. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 7.3 thousand over the week.

In 2025, the pound has risen quite strongly, but it should be understood that there is only one reason—Donald Trump's policy. As soon as this factor is neutralized, the dollar may begin to rise, but no one knows when that will happen.

GBP/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend despite breaking the trend line. We believe that the growth of the pound sterling in the medium term will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental background. The Senkou Span B line is preventing the price from falling below it, which signals the preservation of a local upward trend.

For January 9, we highlight the following key levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3201–1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763. The Senkou Span B (1.3421) and Kijun-sen (1.3488) lines may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to move the Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 20 points in the correct direction. Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when identifying trading signals.

On Friday, no important publications or events are scheduled in the United Kingdom, while in the United States reports will be released that the market may have been waiting for since the beginning of the week. These reports can be called the most important events of January, as the future monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will depend on them. However, whether there will be a noticeable reaction to the Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate is a very big question.

Trading Recommendations

Today, traders may consider selling if the price consolidates below the 1.3421–1.3437 level, with a target of 1.3369–1.3377. Long positions will become relevant if the price rebounds from the 1.3421–1.3437 level, with targets at the critical line and 1.3533–1.3548.

Explanations to the Illustrations

• Support and resistance levels – thick red lines near which price movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong levels.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on January 9th

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EUR/USD 5M Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair continues to slide sluggishly downward. At the moment, traders may have the impression that the market is responding positively to Trump's actions related to Venezuela, his statements regarding Greenland, and his threats to conduct military operations in Latin American countries. Traders may also have paid attention this week to the macroeconomic background from the United States, which for the most part turned out to be weak. And what do we have as a result? Trump's protectionist policy has shifted toward more authoritarian measures, while U.S. economic data continue to be weak despite record GDP growth in the third quarter. What does all this say? That macroeconomics and fundamentals have absolutely nothing to do with the rise of the dollar.

Let us recall that several weeks ago the price reached the 1.1800–1.1830 level, which is the upper boundary of a sideways channel on the daily timeframe that has lasted for six months. Failing to break through the upper boundary of the channel, the price reversed and began moving toward the lower one. This is the most logical explanation for what is happening.

There is another piece of evidence supporting our hypothesis—volatility. If the market were reacting to U.S. economic data and events related to Trump, volatility would probably be higher than it is now.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the last trading signal was formed back on Wednesday, when the price rebounded from the critical line. Over two full trading days, the pair barely managed to cover a distance of 30 points and worked off the 1.1657–1.1666 level. Therefore, those who opened short positions on Wednesday could make a profit on them on Thursday.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated December 23. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had been "bullish" for a long time. Bears managed to move into a position of dominance with difficulty at the end of 2024, but lost it very quickly. Since Trump took office as U.S. president for the second time, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% probability that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, but current global developments hint precisely at this scenario. The red and blue lines are moving away from each other, which indicates a very strong dominance of the bulls.

We still do not see any fundamental factors for strengthening the European currency, but there remains a sufficient number of factors for the decline of the American one. The global downward trend still persists, but what does it matter now where the price has moved over the past 17 years? Over the past three years, the European currency has shown consistent growth, which can be considered a trend.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to point to the persistence and strengthening of the bullish trend. During the latest reporting week, the number of long positions held by the "Non-commercial" group increased by 16.2 thousand, while the number of short positions increased by 1.2 thousand. Accordingly, the net position increased by another 15.0 thousand over the week.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a downward trend. In fact, the upper boundary of the 1.1400–1.1830 sideways channel was tested twice, and the euro failed to exit this channel. This week, the market is processing a large amount of important information, but so far it has largely ignored most reports. Of course, we support a new rise in the European currency, and COT reports continue to signal an increase in long euro positions by market makers. However, the euro now needs to break through the trend line.

For January 9, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1734) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1704). Ichimoku indicator lines may move during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to move the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the correct direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Friday, the European Union is scheduled to publish a retail sales report, while the U.S. will release Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, average earnings, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. If one is to expect at least relatively strong movements, it would be at the beginning of the American trading session.

Trading Recommendations

On Friday, traders can trade from the 1.1657–1.1666 level. A consolidation below the 1.1657–1.1666 level will allow opening new short positions with a target of 1.1604–1.1615. A rebound from the 1.1657–1.1666 level will make long positions relevant, with targets at the Kijun-sen line and the Senkou Span B line.

Explanations to the Illustrations

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines near which price movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. These are strong levels.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position of each category of traders.

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EUR/USD Analysis on January 8, 2026

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The 4-hour chart wave structure of EUR/USD has been quite clear, though rather complex in recent months (see lower chart). There is no question of canceling the upward trend that began in January of last year, but the wave structure starting from July 1, 2025, has become complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the construction of corrective wave 4, which took a very unusual form. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about its corrective nature.

In my opinion, the upward trend is not yet complete, and its targets extend up to the 25th level. In the coming weeks, we can expect a continuation of the upward wave sequence, which could take a five-wave form. However, there is no certainty that an impulsive segment of the trend is currently forming, so the entire upward wave sequence could instead form a three-wave structure. In that case, a new downward segment may already be starting, which would also be corrective.

EUR/USD continued a weak decline throughout Thursday, and meanwhile, a paradoxical situation has emerged in the market. The US dollar's strengthening over the past two weeks has not been strong enough to be considered a welcoming reaction to Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions. Yet at the same time, the US currency is rising, even though Trump is again doing everything possible to make the world abandon the dollar. What does this movement mean?

Primarily, it reflects uncertainty—market uncertainty in its own decisions and expectations. On one hand, Trump's actions are difficult to interpret positively. On the other, investors favor strong leaders because they represent strong countries, and strong countries generally have strong, stable economies. As a result, the market is conflicted between two forces, leaving the dollar in a difficult and uncertain situation. Forex market participants understand that Trump's military aggression will clearly not stop at Venezuela. If the escalation of Trump's military plans spreads to Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe, it would resemble an Orwellian division of the world. Investors simply do not know how to react to such a "redistribution of property" and spheres of influence. This helps explain the US dollar's weak growth.

It should also be remembered that tomorrow, the US will release the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports, and the market is hesitant to make trading decisions because it is uncertain what to expect. On one hand, the first labor market reports (ADP and JOLTS) showed weak readings. On the other hand, this does not mean that the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will also be weak.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues the construction of the upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US dollar. Targets for the current trend segment may extend up to the 25th level. The current upward wave sequence may be complete, which means a decline could be expected soon. However, the trend segment that began on November 5 could still take a five-wave form. US economic data released this week may support this.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. I would like to remind that it is better to identify clear structures on charts rather than strictly adhere to every wave. Currently, the upward structure is beyond doubt.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the direction of movement—never. Always remember protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Holders of the Japanese yen likely breathed a sigh of relief at the end of another year. In 2025, the yen managed to slightly gain against the weakened US dollar. After a poor second half of the year (roughly -7.5% against the G10 average), the question remained: would it become the second-worst performing currency in the G10 group?

The yen continues to face pressure from fiscal challenges and escalating tensions with China. In December, a familiar pattern emerged: the Japanese Finance Minister announced that authorities were ready to take decisive steps against currency fluctuations that deviate from fundamental factors. Such warnings tend to intensify whenever the yen weakens sharply. However, actual interventions usually require several weeks of escalating rhetoric, and at the moment, no further sharp decline in the yen seems likely.

The question arises: what part of the yen's movement is inconsistent with fundamentals? By year-end, two factors weighed on it: an unexpectedly large government stimulus package raised concerns about the country's financial stability, and tensions with China intensified. Japanese officials were irritated by the Japanese Prime Minister's statements regarding Taiwan. While his words were not new, merely reiterating previous positions, China appears to have escalated the situation. This week, China imposed export restrictions on dual-use goods for Japan. For an already weak real economy, this is an additional blow.

Currently, it is difficult to predict when the conflict with China will ease or when the yen will recover. It is also hard to imagine that Japan will easily resolve the conflict. Disappointing wage data released this morning make further interest rate hikes even less likely. Those hoping for a significant strengthening of the yen must, for now, wait for the tensions with China to subside. They can only hope that the conflict does not escalate further. Ultimately, the Chinese government could intensify the conflict even more by imposing a full ban on rare earth exports, which would deal a significant blow to the yen.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is attempting to break the round level of 157.00 amid overall US dollar strength. If it holds above this level, prices could easily reach the early-year high around 157.30, after which the pair could challenge the round level of 158.00.

On the other hand, support is found at the 14-day EMA around 156.50. Failure to hold this level could push the pair down to the 20-day SMA on the way to the round level of 156.00, below which bulls would gradually start losing control.

For now, however, daily chart oscillators remain positive, suggesting that bulls can still contend with the situation.

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EUR/USD. "Smart Money." The Bulls Have Run Out of Fuel

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The EUR/USD pair has been declining for the tenth consecutive day. At present, quotes remain within the "bullish" imbalance 9, which still allows for an eventual reaction from this pattern. Despite the persistence of the decline, it is very weak. It is clear that the bulls have run out of fuel, while the bears have not yet refueled either, leaving price action sluggish in either direction. One might assume that Friday's US labor market and unemployment data could shift trader sentiment, but I would not count on it too much. Even this week, there have been plenty of important events and reports, yet movements in the Forex market remain largely symbolic.

Therefore, I continue to wait for a bullish reaction from imbalance 9 until the invalidation of this pattern forces a conclusion that the bullish impulse has been canceled. This would not turn the trend bearish, but it could allow the bears to seize the initiative for a while. Thus, only the bulls themselves can save the situation—and they need to do so as quickly as possible, ideally this week. If the bulls manage to restore the euro's positions, the reaction to imbalance 9 could then be considered double.

Two weeks ago, there was a liquidity sweep of the swing from December 16, after which the euro's decline began. The pair's fall may end this week, as bullish imbalance 9 is still a support zone for price. The news background for the dollar this week has been very challenging, with most economic data not in its favor. Nevertheless, the bulls continue to idle.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact, but at the moment traders need new signals. Such a signal can only be formed within imbalance 9. If bearish patterns appear or bullish ones are invalidated, the trading strategy will have to be adjusted. For now, however, there are no grounds for this.

The news background on Thursday was virtually absent. The unemployment rate in the EU unexpectedly declined, but this did little to support the euro. Producer prices rose by 0.5%, yet even in this case the bulls failed to go on the offensive. US initial jobless claims for the first week of January came in line with traders' expectations.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a renewed advance for the past three months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the (in any case) dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the US–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, the bleak prospects for the US economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not priced in by traders). Thus, further growth of the pair, in my view, would be entirely natural.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced less frequently, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. However, I personally believe this is just another "temporary calm." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why there has been no new wave of criticism from Trump. But this does not mean these factors no longer pose problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I do not attempt to do so. The blue line marks the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered complete. Bears would need to push the price down about 300 points to reach it, and I consider this task unrealistic under the current news background and circumstances. The nearest upward target for the European currency remains the "bearish" imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News calendar for the US and the European Union:

• Eurozone – Retail Sales Change (10:00 UTC)
• US – Building Permits (13:30 UTC)
• US – Housing Starts (13:30 UTC)
• US – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (13:30 UTC)
• US – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC)
• US – Average Hourly Earnings Change (13:30 UTC)
• US – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On January 9, the economic calendar contains seven events, two of which can be considered extremely important. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Friday may be strong in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:

In my view, the pair may be in the final stage of a bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have attacked more often in recent months. Still, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth. Opportunities to open new trend-following long positions also appeared after a reaction to bullish imbalance 3, then after a reaction to imbalance 8, and later after the bounce from imbalance 9. This week, a second reaction to bullish imbalance 9 may occur. The target for euro growth remains the 1.1976 level. New long positions are acceptable if a new bullish signal is formed. If not, the long strategy will have to be reconsidered.

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EUR/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

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On Thursday, the euro was virtually unchanged against the Swiss franc as markets digested fresh economic data from Switzerland and the eurozone. At the time of writing, EUR/CHF is hovering around 0.9310, halting a two-day rally.

According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Consumer Price Index remained flat in December, posting zero month-on-month growth after a 0.2% decline in November and beating analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. On a yearly basis, inflation stood at 0.1%, as expected, up from zero the previous month. These figures reinforced confidence that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, maintaining a cautious stance and reducing the risk of a return to negative rates. At its December 11 monetary policy meeting, the SNB kept the key interest rate at 0%. The minutes released the same day noted no urgent need for adjustments. The bank's statement said the Governing Board sees no grounds for changing monetary policy at present, with neither tightening nor additional easing justified at this stage.

In the eurozone, the European Commission's business climate indicator improved to -0.56 in December from -0.66, pointing to moderate stabilization in corporate conditions. Consumer confidence rose to -13.1 from -14.6, although the overall economic sentiment indicator edged slightly lower to 96.7 from 97.1. Producer price inflation accelerated to 0.5% in November from 0.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, the PPI fell by 1.7%, extending its downward trend for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, eurozone unemployment declined to 6.3% in November from 6.4%. Earlier on Thursday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said current interest rates are appropriate, noting that inflation has reached its target, although uncertainty remains high.

On Friday, Switzerland will release its final unemployment data. In the eurozone, markets are awaiting releases on retail sales, as well as Germany's industrial production and trade balance.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index has moved into positive territory, raising hopes that bulls will overcome the 20- and 100-day SMAs, after which it would be easier for them to control the market. However, bulls would gain full control only after breaking above the 200-day SMA, which lies nearby.

It is also worth noting that both the 200- and 100-day SMAs are sloping downward, indicating that the broader trend has not yet changed direction.

On the other hand, prices have found support at the 14-day EMA. Failure to hold this level would likely see the pair retreat toward the psychological level of 0.9300.

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XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is declining; however, the lack of clear fundamental reasons for the drop is likely due to profit-taking ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. These key figures will significantly influence expectations for Fed rate cuts and boost US dollar volatility, giving the yellow metal a new directional impulse.

At the same time, growing acceptance of two Fed rate cuts this year prevents the US dollar from holding on to its weekly gains. Risk appetite is beginning to weaken due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which could lend support to gold as a safe-haven asset and slow its decline. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for a strong continuation of selling before opening bearish positions in XAU/USD.

Market reaction to the reported US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend has faded, triggering a second day of profit-taking in gold on Thursday. However, a combination of factors may restrain bearish pressure on XAU/USD and limit further downside. US President Donald Trump warned Colombia and Mexico of possible military measures as part of efforts to combat criminal groups and regional instability. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed commitment to plans to seize Greenland, leaving a military option on the table for Trump.

The lack of progress in Russia–Ukraine talks, unrest in Iran, and the situation in Gaza continue to fuel geopolitical risks, which are favorable for gold as a safe-haven asset. Together with expectations of a Fed rate cut in March and another by year-end, this should help cap the metal's losses.

The Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected pickup in US services activity in December, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November. However, the positive data were offset by weak labor market figures. The ADP report showed private-sector employment increasing by just 41K in December after a decline of 29K (revised from -32K) in November, versus a forecast of +47K. JOLTS data indicated job openings fell to 7.146 million in November.

For opening new positions, it is advisable to wait for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. These data will adjust expectations regarding Fed monetary policy, increase dollar volatility, and give gold fresh momentum.

Thursday will also bring US weekly initial jobless claims, which could create short-term opportunities in XAU/USD during the North American session. However, the current fundamental backdrop calls for caution until sustained selling is confirmed.

From a technical perspective, gold is holding above the 9-day EMA, while oscillators remain positive, confirming the strength of the bulls in the current environment. The key resistance for XAU/USD stands at $4500; a break above this level would open the way toward a record high.

The nearest support for gold is at $4440, where the 14-day EMA is located. Below it lies the 20-day SMA, after which prices could accelerate their decline toward the psychological level of $4300.

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GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The pound is falling against the US dollar for the third consecutive day. The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure as the dollar strengthens following unexpectedly strong US Services PMI data for December.

A slight deterioration in risk sentiment is partially offsetting the mixed US economic data released on Wednesday, supporting the dollar as a safe-haven asset and allowing it to retain its weekly gains.

In particular, the Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected increase in business activity in the non-manufacturing sector, with its Services PMI rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November. At the same time, the ADP private-sector employment report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in December.

The November JOLTS data also revealed a larger-than-forecast decline in job openings, pointing to a continued easing in labor demand. These indicators are reinforcing market expectations for further Federal Reserve policy easing, which could limit additional dollar strength.

In turn, a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England, signaling that interest rates are approaching a neutral level, could support the pound and thus curb further declines in GBP/USD.

No major economic releases are expected from the UK on Thursday, so spot prices will be driven by US dollar dynamics. During the North American session, traders should watch US initial jobless claims data. However, the main focus should be on Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will adjust Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, potentially boost the dollar, and determine the next directional impulse for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, prices are attempting to hold above support at 1.3440, where the 20-day SMA is located. If this level fails to hold, the pair could accelerate its decline toward the round 1.3400 level, followed by the key support that defines bullish strength—the 200-day SMA. For now, however, daily oscillators remain positive, allowing bulls to stay in the game.

Resistance is seen at the 9-day EMA around 1.3470, ahead of the psychological 1.3500 level.

The table below shows the percentage change of the US dollar against major currencies today. The US dollar posted its strongest gains against the New Zealand dollar.

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British Pound Weakens on Housing Market Data

.The British pound fell in response to housing market data and to discussions that the policies of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could create problems for the Labor Party's broader financial plan.

According to the Halifax report, UK house prices fell in December at the fastest pace in almost two and a half years, indicating that Labor's tax-raising budget has discouraged potential buyers.

Data from the mortgage lender showed that the average house price declined by 0.6% to £297,755, marking the second consecutive monthly drop after November's figure was revised from zero to minus 0.1%. As a result, annual price growth slowed to 0.3%.

The last time house prices fell more sharply was in August 2023, when they dropped by 1.6% month on month. The report adds to evidence that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves's budget, presented on November 26, has worsened housing market conditions in 2025 after higher stamp duty distorted demand. In November, the chancellor raised taxes, including a new levy on homes worth more than £2 million.

Although the chancellor is counting on a revival in consumer demand to help finance the public spending announced in the November 26 budget, if consumer spending turns out to be weaker than expected, it could leave a £40 billion hole in the public finances.

It is worth noting that the Halifax data align with recent figures from competitor Nationwide, which also reported falling prices at the end of the year. House prices in the capital fell by 1.3% during 2025 to £539,086, while in the north-east of England annual growth amounted to 3.5%.

The report also notes that the recent decline in house prices could make housing more affordable for first-time buyers, reducing the house-price-to-income ratio to its lowest level in more than a decade. Halifax analysts expect house prices to rise slightly in 2026 as mortgage costs fall and uncertainty over potential tax increases fades. However, any growth is likely to be limited amid growing concerns about job losses.

As noted above, the British pound reacted to all of this with a decline.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3460. Only then will a move toward 1.3488 become possible, a level above which a breakout will be quite challenging. The most distant target is the 1.3514 level. If the pair declines, bears will try to take control of the 1.3435 level. If successful, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3414 low, with the prospect of a further move toward 1.3387.

Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking above the 1.1700 level. Only this will allow a move toward a test of 1.1720. From there, the pair could rise to 1.1740, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1765 high. In the event of a decline, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1665 level. If no support emerges there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1640 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1616.

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USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading tips for the Japanese yen

A test of the 156.56 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test of 156.56, with the MACD in oversold territory, led to the implementation of Buy Scenario No. 2 for the dollar, resulting in a 20-point rise in the pair.

In the second half of the day, economic data will be released, including weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit figures.

The number of new jobless claims is a key indicator of labor market health. An increase in this figure may signal a slowdown in economic growth and a possible decline in consumer activity. Conversely, a decrease in claims may point to strengthening labor market conditions and increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The trade balance shows the relationship between exports and imports. However, given that it is consistently negative in the United States, changes in this indicator are unlikely to have a strong impact on the dollar.

Consumer credit data will show how actively U.S. consumers are using borrowed funds to purchase goods and services. An increase in lending may indicate consumer optimism, which could support the dollar and weaken the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry area around 156.86 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 157.30 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.30, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Further growth in the pair can be expected in line with the prevailing trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.64 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 156.86 and 157.30 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 156.64 level (red line on the chart), which should result in a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.15, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Selling pressure on the pair may return today in the event of weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.86 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.64 and 156.15 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading tips for the British pound

A test of the 1.3448 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

A sharp drop in the UK house price index led to a decline in the British pound. Investors reacted immediately to the alarming signals coming from the real estate market, which has traditionally been considered one of the pillars of the UK economy. Overall, a combination of factors triggered this situation. First and foremost, these include high interest rates set by the Bank of England. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that the housing market had been overheated for a long time. The continuous price growth observed in recent years did not correspond to real household incomes. The decline therefore became an inevitable correction, which, unfortunately, has a negative impact on the economy as a whole.

Later in the day, data on weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit will be released. Traders always study these figures closely to assess the current state of the U.S. economy and forecast further actions by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Initial jobless claims are an important indicator of labor market conditions. An increase in this figure may signal a slowdown in economic growth and a potential decline in consumer spending. The trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A negative balance may weigh on economic growth, as it indicates that the country imports more than it exports. However, for the United States, such a situation is quite normal. Taken together, these data will help form a more complete picture of the current U.S. economic situation and assess the prospects for its further development. Market reaction to the release of these indicators may be highly volatile, so traders are advised to exercise caution.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3455 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3489 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3489, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the level. A rise in the pound today can be expected only if U.S. data are very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3435 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3455 and 1.3489 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.3435 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3405, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Selling pressure on the pound may return today in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3455 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3435 and 1.3405 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading tips for the euro

A test of the 1.1677 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 7 points.

Producer prices in the eurozone rose, while the unemployment rate fell. At first glance, this would seem like a good reason to buy the European currency. However, traders sometimes display remarkable selectivity, and the euro's behavior in this case is a clear example. Despite positive signals from the eurozone economy, the single currency remained largely indifferent, showing neither growth nor any noticeable weakening.

I hope that after midday we will see a period of higher activity. The main event will be the release of the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report. This indicator is traditionally considered a key gauge of the health of the U.S. labor market and can significantly affect the value of the dollar. Along with the labor market situation, close attention will also be paid to the U.S. trade balance. A negative trade balance is a persistent issue for the U.S. economy, and any narrowing of the deficit is viewed as a positive sign. To conclude the day, data on U.S. consumer credit will be released. An increase in this indicator suggests that Americans are confident in their financial situation and continue to spend actively, which is an important driver of economic growth. On the other hand, excessive growth in household debt may pose risks in the longer term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1687 area (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1715. At 1.1715, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1673 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1687 and 1.1715 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1673 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1647, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1687 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1673 and 1.1647 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 08/01/2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for January 8-12, 2026: buy above $90,000 (rebound - 200 EMA)

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Bitcoin is trading around $90,252, rebounding after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel formed since December 24. According to the H4 chart, we are seeing a strong technical correction after reaching a high of $95,000.

This level, where the price of Bitcoin is now, provides good support as it is located at the 200 EMA and could serve as a good point to open long positions if the price recovers above this area.

A decisive break of the uptrend channel and consolidation below $89,500 could see Bitcoin continue its decline and reach the 2/8 Murray at $87,500, and finally accelerate its fall towards $81,250.

As long as BTC trades within the uptrend channel and consolidates above the psychological level of $90,000, the bullish outlook remains intact. We expect the cryptocurrency to recover and reach the 21 SMA around $92,488, the 3/8 Murray at $93,750, and could eventually reach the top of the uptrend channel around $96,000.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we must be careful if a break below $89,500 occurs, as Bitcoin's decline could continue.Eventually, it could reach $87,000 and $81,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for January 8-12, 2026: buy above 1.1657 (rebound - 3/8 Murray)

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The euro is trading around 1.1679 below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA under bearish pressure but showing signs of exhaustion as consolidation is observed around 1.1670.

The euro is moving within a downtrend channel formed since December 19 and has been falling during recent sessions. Consolidation above the 3/8 Murray around 1.1657 is likely in the coming days.

In the coming hours, the euro will find good support around the 3/8 Murray. If EUR/USD reaches the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1631. Both levels could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with a target at the 4/8 Murray around 1.1718.

The Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, so EUR/USD will likely remain above 1.1650 and below 1.1718 in the coming days.

A recovery of the euro is expected in the short term, so we will look for opportunities to open positions if EUR/USD reaches the aforementioned support levels.

A decisive break above 1.1750 will enable a bullish outlook for the euro. A decisive break below 1.1630 could signal a decline in the euro. Therefore, EUR/USD could fall to the psychological level of 1.1500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for January 8-12, 2026: sell below $4,451 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

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Gold is falling after encountering strong resistance around the psychological level of $4,500. The price of gold is now around $4,431, below the 21 SMA, under bearish pressure.

The price of gold is now expected to continue falling in the coming hours until it reaches the 4/8 Murray at $4,375.

In case of a pullback towards $4,451. If the price fails to consolidate above this zone, it will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with a target at $4,375. In case this support is breached, gold could cover the gap it left around $4,327.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, but we must be careful as it is approaching oversold levels. Thus, after a strong technical correction, there could be a good technical rebound, and we must be very careful, as there could be a strong recovery in gold around the 4/8 Murray or around the 200 EMA.

If the price consolidates above $4,450, we could expect gold to continue its uptrend and could reach the 5/8 Murray at $4,531 and could even exceed this level and reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,625.

Our outlook for gold remains bearish for the coming days. Below $4,450, we will continue to sell with targets at $4,375, $4,327, and finally at $4,310.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for CRUDE OIL (CL) for January 8-12, 2026: buy above $56.25 (rebound - 0/8 Murray)

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The price of WTI crude oil is around $56.58 per barrel and is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the 21 SMA located around $57.00, and could even reach the top of the downtrend channel around $57.81.

Crude oil has been consolidating above $55 during the last few sessions. If we compare this with the chart above, it is an area where 0/8 Murray is located, which represents strong support and, in turn, the bottom of the downtrend channel, which has enabled a recovery in WTI.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, we can open long positions as long as the price consolidates above $55.60 or in case of a rebound towards $56.25, with a target at $57.80.

A sharp break below $55.60 could change the outlook for crude oil, and we could expect a sharp decline towards the -1/8 Murray located at $54.68.

Our outlook could remain bullish for crude oil for the next few days as long as the price consolidates above $55.60. Any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on January 8, 2026

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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Wednesday, a process that has been going on for two weeks now, but trader activity remained minimal. Below, we will take a closer look at this situation. A consolidation below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1686 allows for expectations of a continued decline toward the support level at 1.1645–1.1648. A close above 1.1686 today would allow traders to anticipate a modest rebound toward the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1731.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recently completed upward wave failed to exceed the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend has shifted to bearish. In my view, the decline is unlikely to be prolonged, but a break of the bearish trend is now required before expecting a renewed rise in the euro. Based on the current chart structure, such a break would occur above the resistance zone at 1.1795–1.1802 or after two consecutive bullish waves.

On Wednesday, traders had plenty of information triggers for active market participation. However, surprisingly, almost all economic data was ignored. It began with the eurozone inflation report, which raised some concerns. These concerns were related to the ECB's future monetary policy actions. German inflation showed a sharp slowdown in December, and many traders expected a significant deceleration in eurozone inflation as well. Had that happened, the likelihood of ECB monetary tightening in 2026 would have dropped to nearly zero. Moreover, a fall in inflation below the central bank's target would have meant that the probability of another rate cut was higher than that of a rate hike. Despite the fact that the consumer price index did not fall below 2%, the risk of further inflation deceleration remains. Price growth in Europe has slowed for the third consecutive month, although in the medium term it has remained close to 2% for about 10 months.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the support level at 1.1649–1.1680 and reversed in favor of the euro. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the 1.1649–1.1680 support level would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 38.2% – 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional market participants opened 16,177 long positions and 1,189 short positions. Sentiment among the "non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 293,000, while short positions amount to 133,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players reduced short positions and increased longs. Then came the "shutdown," and now we are seeing the same picture again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they generate numerous issues that are likely to have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy—for example, the deterioration of the labor market. Traders also fear a loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 due to pressure from Trump and amid Jerome Powell's expected resignation in May.

News calendar for the U.S. and the eurozone:

• Eurozone – Unemployment rate (10:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC)

On January 8, the economic calendar contains only two entries, neither of which is particularly important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be extremely weak or entirely absent.

EUR/USD outlook and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.1731 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1686. This target has been reached. Today, short positions can be maintained with targets at 1.1645–1.1648 and 1.1607–1.1612. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from one or both of these target zones on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1731.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1492–1.1805 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.