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USD/JPY: Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

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Recent repeated failures to overcome resistance around 154.50, along with a break below the support level at 153.30–153.25 (previously resistance), confirm the likelihood of further downside movement in the USD/JPY pair.

However, positive oscillators on the daily chart indicate that any further decline is likely to find strong support near the round level of 153.00 or around 152.50. A drop toward 152.00, followed by a slight move below this level, could be viewed as a new trigger for the bears. Such a development would open the way for a continuation of the recent pullback from the October and November highs near 154.50, a level that was also observed in February 2025.

On the other hand, a recovery above the 153.25–153.30 resistance level is likely to encounter another obstacle near 153.65. A sustained move above this barrier would allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 154.00 round level, extending its rise toward a retest of the 154.45–154.50 supply level. This area will be key, as a decisive breakout above it would enable spot prices to reach the psychological 155.00 level, and potentially advance toward 155.60–155.65, with an eventual target at the 156.00 round level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on November 7, 2025

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For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (see lower chart), although in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and ambiguous form (see upper chart). The pound has declined too sharply, making the trend segment that began on August 1 appear uncertain. It is likely that wave c of 4 has taken the shape of a five-wave corrective pattern. If that is indeed the case, then the rise in quotations should resume within a new upward wave sequence, forming part of the anticipated wave 5.

The downward wave sequence that began on September 17 could theoretically become even more extended and complex. However, in any case, it still has a corrective nature, meaning that the current decline in the instrument is a correction—one that has dragged on for quite a while.

At the moment, much on the currency market depends on Donald Trump's policies. The news background remains extremely unfavorable for the U.S. dollar. The fact that the market is currently ignoring a large number of significant factors is somewhat discouraging, as instead of a logical upward trend, we've been observing a series of complex corrective structures for several months in a row. For both major pairs, the a-b-c-d-e wave formations appear to be complete.

The GBP/USD rate remained virtually unchanged on Friday, after rising by 80 points the day before. Recall that yesterday the Bank of England (BoE) held its monetary policy meeting, the outcome of which could have been interpreted either way. On the one hand, the BoE decided not to cut interest rates. On the other hand, the number of policymakers voting for easing was higher than expected.

However, I do not believe that the BoE's decision or its updated inflation and GDP forecasts were the cause of the pound's strengthening. The base-case scenario was for a pause in easing, and that is exactly what happened. The BoE expects inflation to slow in 2025–2026, but whether that will happen in practice remains to be seen. Growth forecasts were lowered, and economic growth in the UK was already weak. Overall, the meeting offered very few positive factors for the pound.

At the same time, the U.S. news background creates far more problems for the dollar. Over the past month, the market has ignored Trump's new tariffs, the government shutdown, the weak U.S. labor market, and many other factors. Now the market may begin to catch up with reality.

The wave structure also suggests the formation of a new upward trend segment, with targets near the 1.38 level and higher. If upward movement does not begin soon, the wave count will become even more complicated, which is not desirable. Today's news background was very weak and did not influence market sentiment.

General Conclusions

The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment, but its internal structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 has taken a three-wave form, and its structure is several times longer than wave 2. The latest downward corrective structure is nearing completion — or may already be complete. I continue to expect the main upward wave formation to resume soon, with initial targets near 1.38 and 1.40, and I believe this may happen in early November.

The larger-scale wave structure looks almost perfect, even though wave 4 slightly exceeded the top of wave 1. However, I'll remind you that perfect wave structures exist only in textbooks. In practice, things are far more complicated. At the moment, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to the bullish trend continuation.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If you are uncertain about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on November 7, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has changed — unfortunately, not for the better. It's still too early to conclude that the upward segment of the trend has ended, but the latest decline in the euro forced a revision of the wave count. Now we can observe a series of corrective structures, which likely form part of the global wave 4 within the broader upward trend. In this case, wave 4 has taken on an unusually extended form, but the overall wave pattern remains coherent.

The construction of the upward trend segment continues, and the news background still largely fails to support the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The conflict between the President and the Federal Reserve continues. Market expectations for a dovish Fed remain strong — particularly for 2026. The U.S. government shutdown persists. The labor market is cooling. In my view, the recent strengthening of the dollar is somewhat paradoxical — but paradoxes are not uncommon in the markets.

In my opinion, the upward wave formation is not yet complete, with potential targets extending up to the 1.25 level. The most recent movement formed a five-wave corrective structure, so I now expect the instrument to rise again as part of the next bullish wave sequence.

The EUR/USD rate rose by 75 basis points over Thursday and Friday. It's not much, but market volatility remains relatively subdued. The euro should be pleased with even such modest growth — over the past month, demand for it had been steadily declining.

I wouldn't say that the news flow on Thursday or Friday supported buyers — quite the opposite. For instance, yesterday's two European reports on retail sales and industrial production came in weaker than market expectations, and today there were no significant news releases at all. Therefore, I consider wave analysis to be the key tool for determining the pair's future dynamics right now.

If the decline resumes, the downward wave sequence that began on September 17 will become even more complex and extended. It currently looks somewhat convincing, but if it stretches further, it will lose coherence entirely. In that case, the entire wave structure since July 1 might require revision. Hence, the euro is still playing with fire at this point.

Let me remind you that the fundamental backdrop still supports the euro, as noted by many analysts. If we abstract away from the wave structure, there's nothing unusual in recent weeks — just a typical correction within a clear long-term uptrend. Accordingly, my bias remains bullish.

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build its upward trend segment. The market is currently in a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's stance remain significant factors that could contribute to further dollar weakness in the future.

The targets for the current upward segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, the market is forming a complex and extended corrective wave 4. Its internal structure (a-b-c-d-e) may be approaching completion or already finished. Therefore, I currently view buying opportunities as preferable, since all the latest downward structures appear corrective in nature.

On a smaller scale, the entire bullish trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not perfectly standard, as the corrective waves vary in size — for example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such irregularities do occur. I'll remind you that it's better to identify clear, readable patterns on the chart rather than obsessing over every minor wave. At the moment, the upward structure looks mostly clear and convincing.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/JPY: Analysis and Forecast

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The AUD/JPY pair is attempting to recover from the round level of 99.00. However, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted in favor of the bears, suggesting a higher likelihood of continued downside after the recent pullback from 101.20, the yearly high recorded in October.

Data released today from Japan point to signs of weakening private consumption. Combined with the newly announced stimulus program of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, this may prompt the Bank of Japan to refrain from tightening monetary policy. Such a scenario does not raise traders' expectations for yen appreciation, which helps support the AUD/JPY pair.

However, the minutes of the Bank of Japan's September meeting, published on Wednesday, kept hopes alive for a possible rate hike in the near future.

Additional support for the yen comes from weaker sentiment in equity markets, as the currency acts as a safe haven, while the risk-sensitive Australian dollar remains under pressure. Meanwhile, China's disappointing trade balance data indicate weak domestic demand in the world's second-largest economy amid trade uncertainties. The absence of any hawkish surprises from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) further underscores pressure on the Australian dollar, which often trades as a proxy for Chinese economic activity.

All these factors confirm a short-term bearish bias and indicate that the downtrend in AUD/JPY remains intact. A break below 98.80 (the recent low) cannot be ruled out, which would confirm the bearish outlook and pave the way for a move toward the 98.00 level or lower.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on November 7th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and advice on trading the Japanese yen

No tests of the key levels I outlined occurred during the first half of the day, and the pair's volatility left much to be desired.

In the second half of the session, demand for the U.S. dollar against the yen is expected to return only if the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data turn out strong. There will also be a speech by FOMC member Philip N. Jefferson.

The market closely monitors consumer sentiment data because it reflects the current state of the economy and households' willingness to spend. Strong figures may indicate an improvement in economic conditions and, as a result, strengthen the dollar. Conversely, weak numbers may reduce demand for the U.S. currency, as they could signal a slowdown in economic growth.

Inflation expectations tracked by the University of Michigan are another important factor. If consumers expect prices to rise, this may push the Federal Reserve toward a more cautious stance — typically supportive for the dollar. Conversely, if inflation expectations remain low, the Fed might adopt a more dovish tone, which could weaken the dollar.

The speech by Philip N. Jefferson, a member of the FOMC, could also influence market sentiment. Investors will pay close attention to his remarks on the economy, inflation, and monetary policy outlook. Any hints of the Fed's readiness to cut rates further could put pressure on the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at around 153.60 (green line on the chart), targeting 154.06 (thicker green line). Around 154.06, I will close my buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pair can only be expected after strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.37 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise toward 153.60 and 154.06 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 153.37 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.94, where I will close short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure on the pair will return if dovish comments come from Fed officials.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.60 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and cause a reversal downward. A decline toward 153.37 and 152.94 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually fix profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually fix profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding when to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden volatility.

If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly — especially if you don't apply money management principles and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on November 7th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and advice on trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3104 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pound's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound and stayed out of the market.

The euphoria that followed yesterday's Bank of England decision to keep interest rates unchanged—while hinting at possible policy easing later this year—proved short-lived. Despite the Bank's efforts to maintain stability, the key factor driving the pound right now remains political uncertainty.

The incomplete budget process poses significant risks for the economy, as the lack of a clear fiscal strategy undermines investor confidence. The upcoming battle over budget approval promises to be intense. Disagreements between political forces over spending priorities and deficit-reduction measures could delay the process and deepen uncertainty. In these conditions, traders tend to avoid risky assets like the British pound, which explains its current weakness.

During the U.S. session, pressure on the pound may increase, as we await solid data from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and its accompanying inflation expectations report. There will also be a speech by FOMC member Philip N. Jefferson.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at around 1.3111 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3151 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3151, I plan to close my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A rise in the pound today is only likely if U.S. data turns out very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3083 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise toward 1.3111 and 1.3151 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.3083 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3045, where I plan to close short positions and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). The pound could weaken further after strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if the 1.3111 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3083 and 1.3045 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding when to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings.

If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on November 7th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and advice on trading the European currency

The test of the 1.1541 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and stayed out of the market.

In the second half of today's session, investors' attention will mainly focus on the release of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations data. The speech by FOMC member Philip N. Jefferson is unlikely to bring any changes.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is an important barometer of the health of the U.S. economy. It shows how confident consumers are in the current and future economic outlook, directly influencing their spending levels. An increase in the index usually indicates optimism and potential growth in consumer spending, which supports the U.S. dollar and leads to a decline in the EUR/USD pair. The inflation expectations included in the Michigan report also play a role in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If the public expects higher inflation, people may demand wage increases, which, in turn, can drive prices even higher.

As I mentioned earlier, Jefferson's speech will likely be routine and not cause any major changes in current market trends. Although his comments are always of interest to analysts, they are expected to align with the Fed's current "wait-and-see" strategy.

Regarding intraday trading, I'll rely mainly on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1551 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1579. At 1.1579, I plan to exit the market and open a short position, expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction. A euro rise today is only likely if the Fed officials maintain a dovish stance.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the 1.1527 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward 1.1551 and 1.1579 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1527 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1497, where I plan to exit and open a long position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Selling pressure on the pair will return only if U.S. statistics are strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the 1.1551 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1527 and 1.1497 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – the suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit; further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – the suggested Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit; further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is crucial to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding when to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD November 7-11: buy above $4,000 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading around $3,996, around the psychological level of $4,000, with bullish potential.

Gold is expected to reach 6/8 Murray around $4,062 in the next few hours and could even reach the 21 SMA around $4,084.

The outlook remains positive for gold as it is technically showing oversold levels. The price is likely to reach the key level of 4,110 in the coming days in order to cover the GAP left by October 20.

If the price falls below the 5/8 Murray located at $3,908, the instrument could accelerate its bearish move and could drop to the 4/8 Murray around $3,750.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 7-11, 2025: buy above 1.1509 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1557, making a strong bullish move after having found good support around the 6/8 Murray and around the bottom of the downtrend channel formed since the beginning of September.

The euro could continue its rise in the coming days until it reaches the 200 EMA around 1.1615. EUR/USD could even reach 8/8 Murray around 1.1718 and could even cover the gap it left around 1.1740.

In case the euro pulls back, we could look to open buy positions as long as the price consolidates above 1.1474 or around the 21SMA located at 1.1509.

The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. So, our trading plan is to continue buying for the next few days. A good strategy will be to wait for dips in EUR/USD to enter long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for November 7-11, 2025: buy above $100,000 (200 EMA - 4/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around the psychological level of $100,000 with a negative bias. It is likely to continue its fall in the coming days until the price reaches 3/8 Murray around $75,000.

The eagle indicator is producing a bearish signal. In case BTC consolidates below the 21 SMA located around $115,000, crypto will remain under bearish pressure. It is likely that any technical bounce could be seen with a signal to continue selling in the coming days.

We must be very careful: below the psychological level of $100,000, the outlook for Bitcoin could change, and crypto could even reach the 200 EMA around $65,856 in the medium term.

If BTC falls below 100K in the next few months, it could lose 50% from its all-time high around $126,000. Bitcoin could slump towards $65,000 (200 EMA).

On the contrary, if the price consolidates above $100,000, we could see it as a signal to buy with targets at $115,000 and at 5/8 Murray around $125,000. Once this level is surpassed, Bitcoin is expected to reach the key 6/8 Murray level around $150,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin recovers to $100,000

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Yesterday, pressure on Bitcoin increased once again, leading to a decline towards the $100,000 mark; however, the level was not tested. It is becoming evident that the number of buyers, who have been trying to support the market during this downturn, is insufficient to reverse the active selling that has persisted throughout the week.

Yesterday, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the cryptocurrency market remains sluggish, and many long-term investors are reallocating their assets and diversifying their portfolios after an extended bullish rally. He believes that while this is beneficial for the market in the long term, it may exert pressure on market quotes in the short term. He added that the market has not reached its cyclical peak yet, and a potentially more dovish Federal Reserve policy could catalyze a new rally by the end of the year.

Novogratz's statement reflects the complex dynamics currently observed in the cryptocurrency market. Fatigue accumulated after a prolonged period of growth is prompting investors to reassess their strategies and seek more reliable havens for their capital. This process of asset redistribution, while necessary for market stabilization, carries the risk of short-term pressure on cryptocurrency prices.

Moreover, the diversification of portfolios undertaken by many long-term investors indicates a desire to reduce risks and provide stability in uncertain conditions. Investors accustomed to rapid cryptocurrency growth are now exhibiting greater caution, seeking assets with lower volatility.

Despite the current situation, Novogratz remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the market. He believes that the peak of the cycle has not yet been reached, and potential monetary easing by the Federal Reserve could ignite a new rally. Lower interest rates and increased market liquidity could rekindle interest in riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.

However, it is important to note that the impact of Fed policy on the cryptocurrency market is a complex and multifaceted issue. Beyond directly influencing liquidity, Fed decisions also affect investor sentiment and their willingness to take on risk. Therefore, it's crucial to closely monitor the actions of the central bank and assess their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Trading recommendations

From a technical viewpoint for Bitcoin, buyers are currently aiming for a return to the $102,400 level, which opens a direct path to $105,300, and from there, it's just a short distance to the $108,800 level. The most distant target will be the high around $111,300; surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return the market to bullish territory. In case of a decline, I expect buyers at the $99,400 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $95,800, with the further target being the $91,300 region.

For Ethereum's technical outlook, a solid consolidation above the $3,471 level opens a direct route to $3,664. The most distant target will be the high around $3,818; exceeding this level would indicate a strengthening bullish market and increased buyer interest. Should Ethereum decline, I anticipate buyers at the $3,291 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could swiftly drop ETH to around $3,139, with the further target being the $2,950 region.

Chart indicators

• Red indicators represent support and resistance levels, where a slowdown or active price increase is expected.
• Green represents the 50-day moving average.
• Blue indicates the 100-day moving average.
• Light green signifies the 200-day moving average.

Crossovers or tests of the moving averages usually halt or set the market's momentum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on November 7, 2025

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the European currency, began to rise, and consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1517. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% – 1.1594. A close below 1.1517 would favor the U.S. dollar and signal a renewed decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1392.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Therefore, the trend currently remains bearish. Bullish traders are not taking advantage of the opportunities to advance, while bears are attacking mostly on sheer enthusiasm, without any strong informational support. To consider the current bearish trend complete, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656.

On Thursday, all trader attention was focused on the Bank of England meeting, and European data went largely unnoticed. This was evident even from the pair's movement during the day — steady growth, despite both European reports coming in worse than expected. However, the Bank of England was not the cause of the euro or pound's rise. Bulls simply started their attack yesterday, and I hope their advance doesn't end today.

Let's recall that the U.S. government shutdown has been ongoing for over a month. It has already surpassed the previous record for duration, which was also set under Donald Trump. Many experts had previously said the shutdown would end quickly, since it benefits neither Democrats nor Republicans. However, I'd note that no shutdown benefits anyone — not Congress, not the economy, not the country. That's not an argument. In the current situation, Democrats are feeling increasingly confident, as various polls show that American citizens blame Republicans for the shutdown. Therefore, it's the Republicans who must find a way out of the current situation. The shutdown could easily continue for several more weeks.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after a bullish divergence appeared on the CCI indicator, and it rose toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and signal a new decline toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1448. A close above 1.1538 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. There have been no new COT reports for more than a month. The sentiment of the Non-commercial category remains bullish, strengthened largely by Donald Trump's policies, and continues to grow over time.

The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, while short positions number 138,000 — a nearly two-to-one gap. Also, note the large number of green cells in the summary table — they indicate strong accumulation of positions in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar is declining.

For 33 consecutive weeks, major market participants have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policy remains the key factor for traders, as it may create long-term structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to show decline.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

The November 7 economic calendar includes just one item, which is unlikely to attract much market attention. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

At present, I do not recommend new sell positions, as I believe the bears have already exceeded their targets by a wide margin. Buy positions could be considered after consolidation above 1.1517, with a target of 1.1594. These long positions can remain open today.

The Fibonacci grids are built between 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 7, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday continued to rise after rebounding from the 200.0% retracement level at 1.3024. By the end of the day, the pair had reached the resistance level of 1.3110–1.3139. Securing the pair above this level will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3186. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and signal a new decline toward the 1.3024 level.

The wave structure still remains bearish. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave (which developed over three weeks) had already broken the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar, but bullish traders have not taken advantage of the opportunities for an advance. To end the bearish trend, the pair needs to rise above the 1.3470 level or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Thursday, many traders were expecting a new decline in the pound, as there was a chance the Bank of England might ease its monetary policy settings. However, by a one-vote margin, the MPC committee decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. Still, traders had hoped for a more hawkish outcome, given the persistently high inflation in the U.K.

Andrew Bailey stated that inflation had already peaked and would continue to slow throughout 2025–2026, eventually reaching 2%. These optimistic forecasts give the regulator the flexibility to gradually lower interest rates. However, in my view, the Bank of England will first wait for a clear slowdown in inflation before initiating a new round of monetary easing. Bears continued to retreat yesterday, even though they still had reasons to attack. But in recent weeks, they seem to have exhausted all available selling factors. I believe that a bullish trend should begin soon — though it must first be confirmed by chart analysis, and later by wave structure.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline within a downward trend channel. If a new bullish trend is beginning, we will gradually see confirmation of it. I will start counting on a strong rise in the pound only after the quotes close above the channel. Today, a close above the 1.3140 level would allow expectations for further growth in the pair.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the Non-commercial category became more bullish in the latest reporting week — although that report is already a month old. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 85,000 vs. 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the balance in their favor.

In my opinion, the pound still retains downward potential, but with each passing month, the U.S. dollar looks increasingly weak. Whereas earlier traders worried about the protectionist policies of Donald Trump, uncertain about their long-term effects, now they may fear the consequences — a possible recession, the continuous introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's confrontation with the Fed, which could make the regulator politically compromised. Thus, the pound currently looks far less risky than the U.S. currency.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

The November 7 economic calendar contains just one notable release. The impact of the news background on market sentiment Friday may be very weak, and I would not expect a logical market reaction to this single report.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Sales of the pair were possible after a close below the 1.3354–1.3357 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3313, 1.3247, and 1.3186 — all of which have been successfully achieved. At this point, I am not considering new short positions, as I believe the pound has fallen sufficiently in recent weeks.

Buy positions could have been opened after a rebound from the 1.3024 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3110 and 1.3186. The first target has already been reached — long positions can remain open.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3247–1.3470 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Lost Another Portion of Its Positions

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Yesterday, the U.S. dollar once again faced a minor sell-off. A series of speeches by Federal Reserve representatives also failed to provide support for the dollar, as markets appear to have grown accustomed to the tone of their statements.

Yesterday's interviews with senior Fed officials Beth Hammack and Austan Goolsbee confirmed that inflation is still viewed as a serious threat. The lack of new inflation data due to the government shutdown has only heightened concerns, as it makes it difficult to accurately assess the current economic situation and make well-informed decisions.

Despite progress in reducing inflation over recent months, both Hammack and Goolsbee emphasized that the Fed needs to see a sustained trend toward the 2% target before considering any easing of monetary policy.

"I remain concerned about high inflation and believe policy should stay focused on overcoming it," said Hammack.

The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland also noted that, in her assessment, inflation will not reach the Fed's 2% target until a year or two after 2026, aligning with the average forecast of 19 Fed members. This means the Fed is unlikely to hit its target for much of the decade and risks entrenching higher inflation in the economy.

Meanwhile, the approach outlined yesterday by Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need to balance inflation control efforts with maintaining labor market stability. This is particularly important since overly aggressive anti-inflation measures could negatively affect employment and economic growth.

It is worth recalling that, although investors currently see a high probability of a rate cut in December, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned against drawing premature conclusions. His recent remarks indicate that the Fed will continue to make decisions based on incoming economic data, carefully weighing the risks and benefits of each move. Thus, the future of U.S. monetary policy remains dependent on economic developments and the mood within the Fed.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

At present, buyers need to focus on breaking above the 1.1550 level. Only then will it be possible to target a test of 1.1580. From there, the pair could climb toward 1.1610, though doing so without the support of large players will be quite difficult. The ultimate target would be the 1.1636 high.

If the pair declines, I expect strong buying interest only near 1.1520. If no major buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1490 low or consider opening long positions around 1.1470.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3140. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3180, though breaking above it will likely be quite challenging. The ultimate target lies in the 1.3215 level.

In the event of a decline, the bears will try to regain control below 1.3100. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down toward the 1.3056 low, with the potential to extend losses to 1.3010.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 7, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may continue moving upward from the 1.3133 level (yesterday's daily close) with a target of 1.3232 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, a pullback downward is possible toward 1.3178 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volume analysis – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – upward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Weekly chart – upward.

Overall conclusion: Upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the 1.3133 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3178 – the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, a pullback downward is possible toward 1.3148 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Tech stock sell-off drags down S&P 500

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The fish rots from the head down. The Magnificent Seven stocks led the S&P 500 rally and were the first to dive during the sell-off. NVIDIA experienced its worst day since the January stock market rout due to the emergence of Chinese competitor DeepSeek. The company's market capitalization shrank by a staggering $440 billion. Only 18 of the 500 issuers have a market value greater than this figure. Is it any surprise that the tech giants caught in the sell-off dragged the entire broad stock index down with them?

Magnificent Seven Stocks Dynamics

Everything comes to an end, both good and bad. The earnings season for July to September served the S&P 500 faithfully until early November. Eighty-three percent of the 424 companies that reported exceeded Wall Street expectations for profits, with revenues surpassing forecasts by 10.4%. In both cases, these are the best results since the second quarter of 2021.

Once again, the Magnificent Seven were the market leaders. However, their performance is merely the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface lies a different picture. With the exception of Amazon and Tesla, the consumer discretionary sector is undergoing a profit recession. Sales among small-cap companies within the Russell 2000 increased by a modest 1.1% year-over-year. The materials sector is staying afloat solely due to rising precious metal prices.

High tariffs and the associated increase in costs amid declining consumer activity, crucial for revenue and profit, are forcing companies to tighten their belts. In October, they announced layoffs totaling more than 153,000, three times higher than September's figure. According to Revelio Labs, employment decreased by 9,100 after an increase of 33,000 in the first month of autumn.

Market Capitalization to US Economy Ratio Dynamics

Thus, it is not as rosy for market leaders as it appears. Overvaluations of tech giants and doubts about the profitability of investments in artificial intelligence have triggered sell-offs in the S&P 500. According to Warren Buffett's indicator, the broad stock index is clearly overvalued. This metric compares the current capitalization of $72 trillion with the size of the US economy. The market value is twice the GDP, even accounting for its impressive growth in the second and likely the third quarters.

Not all S&P 500 buyers are ready to wave the white flag. JP Morgan notes that seasonal increases in cash flows from retail investors at the end of the year traditionally support the broad stock index. Will this be the case this time?

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows a pullback after the upward trend. A breakout of two out of three moving averages indicates the seriousness of the bears' intentions. As long as quotes remain below the fair value of 6,740, it makes sense to hold and increase short positions opened at 6,770.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 07/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500 and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 7, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may continue moving upward from the 1.1546 level (yesterday's daily close) with a target of 1.1574 – the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Upon testing this level, a pullback downward is possible toward 1.1556 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volume analysis – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – downward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – downward;
• Weekly chart – upward.

Overall conclusion: Upward trend.

Alternative scenario:Today, from the 1.1546 level (yesterday's daily close), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.1593 – the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, a pullback downward is possible toward 1.1574 – the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 7: S&P 500 and NASDAQ resume losses

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Yesterday, US stock indices closed with losses. The S&P 500 fell by 1.12%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.90%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.84%.

Asian indices also fell at the end of a week marked by conflicting opinions, as investors balanced optimism regarding technological advancements with concerns over inflated valuations in artificial intelligence. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined by 0.9%, putting it on track for its worst week since early August. Shares in AI-related companies, such as Nvidia Corp., also fell again yesterday, while the volatility index (VIX) rose sharply. The MSCI All Country World Index is poised for its first weekly decline in four weeks.

Investors who fueled the rally with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and AI-driven economic growth are now questioning the profitability of massive capital expenditures. Wall Street executives have also taken a more cautious stance recently, as further market growth following the April slump increasingly depends on an ever-narrowing group of companies. This narrow growth base raises concerns about the sustainability of the rally. If a small number of large tech companies continue to dominate the market, it increases the risk of a sharp correction if these companies begin to face difficulties. The broad market needs to demonstrate more even participation to confirm the long-term sustainability of the upward trend.

Moreover, the re-evaluation of the prospects for Fed rate cuts puts additional pressure on the market. Investors, who initially baked in several rate cuts throughout the year, are now forced to revise their forecasts amid persistent inflation and economic resilience. This leads to rising bond yields, making stocks less attractive compared to fixed-income investments.

The trend of sell-offs followed by buying the dips emerged after the earnings season came to an end, and investors began to rely more on private data amid the absence of official economic reports due to the ongoing US government shutdown. Investors also faced conflicting opinions regarding the possibility of further rate cuts.

Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated that inflation poses a greater risk than a decline in employment. Her Chicago counterpart, Austan Goolsbee, noted that the lack of inflation data during the government shutdown raises concerns about rate cuts. Governor Michael Barr mentioned that officials still need to work on lowering inflation while ensuring labor market stability.

Let me remind you that last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that a rate cut in December is not a predetermined decision. Investors still assess the likelihood of a rate cut at around 70%.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,743. This will help the index gain ground and also pave the way for a potential breakout to the new level of $6,756. An equally important objective for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,769 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward move driven by reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around the $6,727 area. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,711 and open the path toward $6,697.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations for November 7

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Currently, Bitcoin has quickly returned to the psychological level of $100,000. According to economists at JPMorgan, in the next 6-12 months, the price of Bitcoin may rise to approximately $170,000. This growth is expected only after a full "shakeout" of traders leveraging large amounts in the market.

The report states that the cryptocurrency market has corrected nearly 20% from its recent highs, with the steepest decline occurring on October 10 amid record liquidations of perpetual futures—the largest in cryptocurrency history—followed by less significant liquidations on November 3.

The decline on November 3 was driven by a loss of investor confidence due to a Balancer exploit resulting in over $120 million in the decentralized finance sector, raising new concerns about protocol security.

However, despite the ongoing sell-offs, the company noted that the phase of reducing leverage in the perpetual futures market seems to have generally concluded. They observed that the ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to market capitalization has decreased from above-average levels to historical lows over several weeks, and that similar trends are evident in Ethereum markets. However, the reduction in leverage there has been less pronounced.

JPMorgan believes the current price of Bitcoin is approximately $68,000 below its fair value relative to gold, adjusted for volatility. All this indicates that, despite corrections, we should not lose optimism.

For the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the medium term, which remains intact.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today if it reaches an entry point around $102,600, targeting a rise to $104,000. At approximately $104,000, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be considered from the lower boundary of $101,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down towards levels of $102,500 and $104,000.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching an entry point around $101,400, targeting a drop to $99,900. At approximately $99,900, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be considered from the upper boundary of $102,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down towards levels of $101,400 and $99,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches an entry point around $3,377, targeting a rise to $3,468. At approximately $3,468, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the pullback. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be considered from the lower boundary of $3,336 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down towards levels of $3,377 and $3,468.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching an entry point around $3,336, targeting a drop to $3,251. At approximately $3,251, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the pullback. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be considered from the upper boundary of $3,377 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down towards levels of $3,336 and $3,251.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 7. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 153.58 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero line, which, in my view, limited the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

The Japanese yen faced active selling again today after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that the government's goal of achieving a primary budget surplus, which is part of fiscal consolidation, will no longer be reviewed on an annual basis. The strategy will be revised with the aim of achieving balance over the coming years. Takaichi also indicated that the economic policy would now be more accommodative and aimed at stimulating economic growth.

The market perceived this shift in policy as a departure from strict austerity measures, potentially leading to increased government spending and further increases in Japan's national debt. Concerns about debt sustainability and a potential downgrade of the country's credit rating also contributed to yen selling. The impact on the Bank of Japan remains uncertain. On one hand, the BoJ may feel less pressure to tighten monetary policy. On the other hand, a weakening yen could force the BoJ to take action to prevent excessive depreciation and associated inflation risks.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches an entry point around 153.60 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 154.25 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 154.25 level, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30-35-pip move). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.27 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 153.60 and 154.25.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaches 153.27 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 152.75 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and simultaneously open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 153.60 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 153.27 and 152.75.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 7. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3073 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair did not experience a significant drop. Closer to midday, there was a test of the price at 1.3099, which occurred as the MACD began its upward movement from the zero mark, allowing the pound to be bought at acceptable prices. As a result, the pair rose by more than 40 pips.

Yesterday, the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. However, the possibility of a rate cut in December led to a surge in volatility, with buyers of the pound emerging as winners. A reduction in rates is likely to support the British economy, which may face new challenges due to the upcoming budget for next year, making a more accommodative policy from the bank more appropriate than its current stance.

Today, market participants will focus on the publication of the Halifax House Price Index in the UK and a speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Hugh Pill. The Halifax report on property prices is a key barometer of the health of the UK housing sector, and changes in it often reflect consumer confidence and the broader economic situation. Weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on the pound, fueling concerns about slowing economic growth. Huw Pill's comments will also attract attention. Investors will carefully examine his remarks for signals on future interest-rate policy decisions. A dovish tone suggesting a potential rate cut may weaken the pound, whereas hawkish statements could support it.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3124 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3151 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3151 level, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30-35-pip move). Expectations for the pound to rise today can be based on Pill's dovish stance. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3104 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3124 and 1.3151.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level to 1.3104 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3076 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and simultaneously open longs in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers of the pound may return to the market at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3124 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3104 and 1.3076.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 7. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1525 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The influence of the Federal Reserve's statements regarding the need to maintain caution on interest rate cuts has weakened, allowing buyers of the euro to continue the corrective rise in the EUR/USD pair. The market seems to have absorbed the central bank's position and no longer views it as an unconditional factor in strengthening the U.S. currency. The lack of key fundamental data due to the shutdown also became a significant factor yesterday, weighing on the dollar.

Today's data will include the trade balance for both Germany and France, as well as a speech from the head of the German Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. These factors will undoubtedly influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory. Information on Germany's trade balance will reflect the overall health of the European economy and the competitiveness level of German exports. Positive figures are likely to strengthen the euro, while negative figures may lead to its weakening. Similarly, data on France's trade balance will help assess the economic condition of the Eurozone's second-largest economy. Investor attention will focus on the dynamics of export-import operations to understand how successfully French companies compete on the global stage.

However, the key event will be President Joachim Nagel's speech. His comments on the current economic situation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as the prospects for the European Central Bank's monetary policy, may significantly affect the euro's exchange rate.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I will consider buying the euro if the price reaches around 1.1541 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1573. At 1.1573, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, aiming for a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. An expectation of the euro rising can be based on good data. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1527 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1541 and 1.1573.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1527 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1499, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (aiming for a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment today. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1541 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1527 and 1.1499.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 7

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The American dollar, despite statements from Federal Reserve representatives, ceded some positions against the euro and the British pound but maintained a bullish momentum against the Japanese yen.

Statements from Fed officials about the need for caution in interest rate cuts no longer have a significant effect on the dollar. Traders have adapted to the central bank's rhetoric and have stopped interpreting it as a definitive signal for strengthening the American currency. Instead, the focus has shifted to macroeconomic data, which has been lacking recently regarding the U.S.

Today, we await data on the trade balance for Germany and France, as well as a speech from the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. These events will undoubtedly contribute to shaping the outlook for the EUR/USD pair. The trade balance data from Germany will serve as an indicator of the overall state of the European economy and the country's export competitiveness. An improvement in the figures may support the euro, while a deterioration will exert pressure on it. However, the most significant event of the day will be President Nagel's speech. His comments regarding the current economic situation in Germany and the eurozone, as well as the prospects for the European Central Bank's monetary policy, could have a substantial impact on the euro's exchange rate.

Regarding the pound, this morning we expect the Halifax House Price Index and a speech from Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill. These events could introduce additional volatility into the currency market. The Halifax house price report is an important indicator of the state of the British real estate market, and its dynamics often influence consumer sentiment and the country's overall economic health. If the data comes in below expectations, it may exert pressure on the pound, heightening concerns about slowing economic growth.

Pill's speech is also worthy of close attention. Traders will carefully analyze his rhetoric—especially after the central bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged yesterday.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to apply the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the best approach would be the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on breakout above 1.1551, targeting a rise to 1.1578 and 1.1606.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1521, targeting a drop to 1.1494 and 1.1472.

For GBP/USD

• Buy on breakout above 1.3139, targeting a rise to 1.3179 and 1.3216.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3098, targeting a drop to 1.3056 and 1.3020.

For USD/JPY

• Buy on breakout above 153.65, targeting a rise to 154.00 and 154.30.
• Sell on a breakout below 153.25, targeting a drop to 152.85 and 152.47.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For EUR/USD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1553, upon a return below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.1528 upon returning to this level.

For GBP/USD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3135, upon a return below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3102 upon returning to this level.

For AUD/USD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6490, upon a return below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6467 upon returning to this level.

For USD/CAD

• Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4133, upon a return below this level.
• Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4110 upon returning to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With its supportive technical indicators, gives an opportunity for strengthening of the Filecoin today. Friday, November

.

[Filecoin] – [Friday, November 07, 2025]

With both EMAs in a Golden Cross position and the RSI in the Extreme Bull area, although there is potential for a limited correction confirmed by the emergence of a Bearish Divergence, the strengthening bias seems to still dominate this cryptocurrency.

Key Levels:

1. Resistance. 2 : 2.332

2. Resistance. 1 : 2.063

3. Pivot : 1.692

4. Support. 1 : 1.423

5. Support. 2 : 1.052

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks and closes above 1.423, Filecoin has the potential to test 2.332.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 2.332 is successfully breached, then Filecoin will move toward 2.703.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Filecoin declines and closes below 1.052.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 1.695.

EMA(200): 1.520.

RSI(14) : 70.61 + Bearish Divergent.

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the United States, the following economic data will be released:

US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 22:00 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 22:00 WIB

US - Consumer Credit m/m - 03:00 WIB (Saturday morning).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.