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EUR/USD Analysis on December 26, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD looks fairly clear, albeit somewhat complex. There is no talk of canceling the upward segment of the trend that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very non-standard shape. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the construction of the upward segment of the trend is not finished, and its targets may extend all the way up to the 1.25 level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e appears complete; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect a new upward wave sequence to form. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 3, or c. I had expected that within this wave the instrument would rise to the level of 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, this wave is taking on a more extended form, which is very positive, as in this case it may turn out to be impulsive—and along with it, the entire upward wave sequence.

The EUR/USD rate barely changed on Friday, with the total price range amounting to just 15 basis points by the opening of the U.S. session. Overall, I do not expect to see or hear anything interesting this week. Let me remind you that the only events this week were three U.S. reports, which left a contradictory aftertaste—much like the entire news backdrop in December.

While GDP volumes grew by as much as 4.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter (second estimate), industrial production once again lost momentum, and orders for durable goods declined. Let me also remind you that earlier, pivotal reports on inflation, unemployment, and the labor market were released, which are also difficult to count as positives for the dollar. Although payrolls in November came in slightly above market expectations, the October payroll figure set an anti-record for the past several years. The unemployment rate rose, while inflation declined. The latter could have been considered a positive factor for the U.S. currency if not for one "small" caveat—declining inflation sharply increases market dovish expectations for 2026. In other words, the faster inflation falls amid a weak labor market, the more rounds of rate cuts the Fed will carry out next year. There is no need to look at current analyst forecasts or the CME FedWatch tool—everything will depend solely on incoming economic data.

Overall Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis conducted, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors weighing on the U.S. dollar in the long term. The targets of the current trend segment may extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The current upward wave sequence is beginning to gain momentum, and one would like to believe that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave sequence as part of the global wave 5. In this case, growth should be expected with targets near 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to the 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci levels.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is clearly visible. The wave labeling is not the most standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear and understandable structures on charts, rather than rigidly tying analysis to every single wave. At present, the bullish structure raises no doubts.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.There is no and can never be 100% certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
3. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for Etehreum for December 26-29, 2025: sell below $2,980 (21 SMA - rebound)

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Ethereum is trading around $2,981, exhibiting signs of exhaustion and approaching resistance levels, as evident on the H4 chart.

ETH/USD is testing the top of the downtrend channel formed on December 10. If the cryptocurrency manages to break above this level, we could expect an upward acceleration, and it could reach $3,125 or even the 3/8 Murray at $3,437.

The H4 chart shows that the Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, and a technical correction is more likely to occur in the coming hours towards the key support level of $2,880.

If Ether finds good support around $2,880, it could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions on the technical rebound.

In case of a sharp break below the key support level of $2,880, a bearish acceleration could occur, and ETH could reach the 1/8 Murray around 2,812.

Our outlook remains bearish for the coming hours as long as the price trades below the downtrend channel formed since December 10.

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Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 26-29, 2025: sell below 1.1803 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1792, reaching the strong resistance zone around 1.1803 with an upward bias after covering the gap left during the holidays.

The euro has strong resistance around 1.1800. This area could serve as a key point for resuming the bearish sequence, and we could expect EUR/USD to reach 4/8 Murray at 1.1718 in the short term.

If the euro manages to remain below the resistance level of 1.1803 in the coming hours, it will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with targets at 1.1764, 1.1718, and finally at the 200 EMA around 1.1672.

Our outlook remains bearish as we observe a triple top pattern forming, which could confirm the decline of the EUR/USD pair in the coming days. The Eagle indicators are showing a negative signal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 26-29, 2025: sell below $89, 500 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is rising above the 2/8 Murray after a brief pause around $87,500. BTC has gained bullish momentum above this area.

If the bullish force prevails, it could be seen as a signal to open long positions. We believe that it could reach the 200 EMA around $90,453 in the coming days and even reach $93,750.

There is a negative divergence, which should make us very cautious, as the Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels. So, it is likely that after a strong upward movement or around $89,000-$90,500, we could expect a new technical correction.

Bitcoin is likely to undergo a technical correction from current price levels, as we observe that it is reaching the top of the downtrend channel, which could act as a strong barrier.

On the other hand, if BTC breaks through this resistance zone, it could face the next resistance around $90,453 (200 EMA). The Eagle indicator is showing exhaustion of bullish strength, and it is likely that there could be a technical correction in the coming hours.

The outlook could be bearish for the next few hours as long as the price trades below $89,500. If Bitcoin finds good support around the 2/8 Murray, it will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions on the technical rebound.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. An Important Signal for the Yen: What Does the Tokyo CPI Growth Report Tell Us?

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The current week is a series of holidays or semi-holidays: Christmas Eve, Christmas Day, Boxing Day, and St. Stephen's Day. The FX market continues to trade amid low liquidity, especially in the second half of the week, when an information vacuum has formed. In this respect, Japan is virtually the only source of news, playing a kind of role as a news provider and exerting a corresponding influence on the yen.

During Friday's Asian trading session, Japan published data on inflation growth in Tokyo for December of this year. It became known that the consumer price index in the Japanese capital slowed sharply this month—to 2.0%, after declining to 2.7% in November. The indicator has been falling for the second month in a row and hit a yearly low in December. The index was below the 2% level in October 2024. Core Tokyo CPI, excluding fresh food prices, also came out in the red, declining to 2.3% versus a forecast of a slowdown to 2.5% (from the previous 2.8%). This is a multi-month low—the lowest reading since February of this year. Tokyo CPI excluding fresh food and fuel prices also showed a slowdown in December—to 2.6% (2.8% in November).

As is well known, Tokyo inflation is considered a "harbinger" of nationwide inflation in Japan. First, the Tokyo CPI is released about 3–4 weeks earlier than the nationwide CPI. Second, the indicator is highly representative, as Tokyo is the country's largest metropolitan area with a high share of consumption in services, rent, transport, and food (categories that often reflect changes in price pressures first). Third, there is historical correlation: in most cases, the direction of Tokyo CPI (acceleration or deceleration) later matches what happens at the national level. Therefore, the Bank of Japan and analysts use this indicator when forming expectations for interest rates and inflation.

Of course, TCPI is not a "perfect predictor with pinpoint accuracy." Regional differences must be taken into account—municipal subsidies, housing rents, and utility tariffs can differ from those in Tokyo (sometimes quite significantly). For example, temporary electricity/gas subsidies sometimes have a stronger impact on the capital than on other prefectures.

Nevertheless, Tokyo CPI predicts the direction of the "senior" indicator fairly accurately: if inflation in Japan's capital slows or accelerates, there is a high probability that nationwide inflation will follow suit. That is why USD/JPY traders quite reasonably interpreted today's report as unfavorable for the yen.

What does the release indicate? First of all, that inflation in Tokyo cooled more than economists expected, reflecting an overall easing of price pressures in the economy. The structure of the report suggests that the decline in TCPI was driven mainly by falling energy prices and more moderate growth in food and utility prices.

On the one hand, despite the downward dynamics of key TCPI indicators, core inflation remains above the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Theoretically, this leaves room for continued monetary tightening. On the other hand, the pace of the decline in Tokyo inflation turned out to be much stronger than expected, and this fact cannot be ignored.

It is worth recalling that following its December meeting, the Bank of Japan raised the policy rate to 0.75% (the highest level in the past 30 years) and signaled readiness for further steps in this direction "if wage growth and economic conditions support it."

At the same time, today's TCPI report strengthens the case for a wait-and-see stance by the Bank of Japan, at least in the context of the January and March meetings. At the same time, the release does not completely close the door to monetary tightening. Now the focus of both the central bank and the market will naturally shift to wages. In fact, wages are currently the main "missing element" in the BoJ's argumentation.

By and large, TCPI has eased the pressure on the Bank of Japan, freeing it from the need to act or react "right here and now." At the same time, the report has increased the importance of wage data as the next decisive factor.

It should be noted that winter wage statistics will be viewed by the Bank of Japan as auxiliary and subject to seasonal distortions. The key factor for assessing the sustainability of inflation (and the central bank's next steps) will be the spring wage negotiations (Shunto). Until then, the central bank is likely to maintain a wait-and-see stance.

Thus, Tokyo inflation turned out to be unfavorable for the yen, allowing USD/JPY buyers to stage a corrective rebound after a three-day prolonged decline (caused by the general weakening of the U.S. dollar). However, considering long positions in the pair makes sense only if it breaks above the resistance level at 156.70 (the Kijun-sen line on the four-hour chart). In that case, the pair will not only be above all Bollinger Bands lines on the H4 timeframe, but also above all Ichimoku lines, which would form a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The upward targets are 157.10 and 157.40 (the upper Bollinger Bands on the H4 and D1 timeframes, respectively).

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EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the pair interrupted a two-day decline and is moving higher, heading toward the December high. At the same time, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited the overbought zone, supporting a positive bias for EUR/JPY.

Prices are holding above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 9-day EMA positioned above the 14-day EMA, confirming a positive outlook for the pair. Both moving averages are rising, reinforcing the bullish structure.

The EUR/JPY pair may rebound toward the all-time high of 184.95, recorded on December 22, coming close to the round 185.00 level.

Immediate support is located at the 9-day EMA around 183.35, followed by the round 183.00 level. A break below this level would find support at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with the next stop near 182.20. Failure to hold this level could accelerate the decline toward 181.50, on the way to the next round level at 181.00, below which lies the 50-day SMA.

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EUR/USD. Smart Money. The Market Has Opened, but Traders Are Still Celebrating

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The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the bullish imbalance 9 zone, which gave us another buy signal. Let me remind you that it all started earlier with bullish imbalances 3 and 8. The pair formed two buy signals, and traders had an excellent opportunity to enter in continuation of the bullish trend at the most favorable price. This long position is now showing a profit of about 260 points. Traders can decide for themselves what to do next: wait for a larger profit or close the position now. Personally, I am expecting further growth from the euro. Over recent months, I have repeatedly drawn traders' attention to an obvious fact: the bullish trend remains intact. Thus, all this time I have been waiting for a new bullish offensive. Now I am waiting for the 2025 highs to be tested and for the weekly bearish imbalance (visible on the chart) to be worked off. Over the past three days, market movement has been virtually nonexistent, which is easily explained by the Christmas and New Year holidays. Most likely, meaningful movement should be expected only in the new year.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains in place: a reaction to bullish imbalance 3 has been received, a reaction to bullish imbalance 8 has been received, and a reaction to bullish imbalance 9 has been received. Despite the fairly prolonged decline of the European currency, the dollar has failed to break the bullish trend. It had five months to do so and achieved no result. If bearish patterns or signs of a breakdown of the bullish trend appear, the strategy can be adjusted. However, at the moment, nothing indicates this.

There was no news background on Friday, and trader activity ahead of the New Year and immediately after Christmas was minimal. Despite fairly active trading on Monday and Tuesday, volatility nevertheless fell almost to zero. Today, the market is closed until Monday.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a new offensive for three months now, and all of them remain relevant. These include the (in any case) dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests against Trump (which have swept across the U.S. three times already this year), weakness in the labor market, bleak prospects for the U.S. economy (recession), and the shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Thus, in my view, further growth of the pair will be entirely logical.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced rarely, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. But personally, I believe this is just another "temporary lull." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why no new wave of criticism from Trump has emerged. However, this does not mean that these factors no longer create problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I do not even try to do so. The blue line shows the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered completed. Bears would need to push the price down by about 400 points to reach it, and I consider this task impossible under the current news background and present circumstances. The nearest growth target for the euro remains the bearish imbalance zone of 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On December 29, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:

In my view, the pair may be in the final stage of the bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the side of the bulls, bears have attacked more often in recent months. Still, I currently see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some degree of growth. Opportunities to open new trend-following long positions appeared when a reaction to bullish imbalance 3 was received, then after a reaction to imbalance 8, and this week—after the rebound from imbalance 9. The growth target for the euro remains 1.1976. Buy positions can be kept open, with stop-loss orders moved to breakeven.

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GBP/USD. Smart Money. Waiting for a New "Bullish" Signal

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The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance 11 and resumed its growth, just as I had expected. The reaction to bullish imbalance 11 was twofold: the first buy signal was generated back last week. At this point, long positions are already showing a profit of about 400 pips by the most conservative estimates, and traders can decide for themselves how to manage them going forward. The market was closed on Thursday and reopened on Friday, but activity is virtually nonexistent. There is no news background, and the desire to trade on a day "detached" from the others is unlikely to arise for traders on the last day of the week. Nevertheless, I expect the growth of the pound to continue further. I would note that this week a new bullish imbalance 12 was formed, which may in the future serve as a reason to open new buy positions for those traders who did not do so earlier. And if the pound reacts to this pattern, it will already be the fourth bullish signal in a row.

The current chart picture is as follows. The bullish trend in the pound can be considered completed, but the bullish trend in the euro has not. Thus, the European currency may pull the pound upward, although the pound itself has been growing quite well in recent weeks. Bulls bounced from bullish imbalance 1, from bullish imbalance 10, and twice from bullish imbalance 11. A large number of buy signals have been formed. There are no bearish patterns above the current price for the pound—there is nothing to stop the rise. At the same time, a new support zone has formed below—imbalance 12. Therefore, I assume growth toward the yearly highs, around the 1.3765 level.

There was no news background on Friday. However, new graphical buy signals may emerge before the end of the year, and the rally itself may continue next week. For many Europeans and Americans, New Year's as a holiday is of lower priority than Christmas.

In the U.S., the overall news background remains such that nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected in the long term. The situation in the United States remains quite difficult. The shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans have only agreed on funding through the end of January. There has been no U.S. labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be considered positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with "dovish" decisions, and the most recent labor market data allow for a fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy in January. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and return to the yearly highs.

For a bearish trend, a strong and stable positive news background for the U.S. dollar is needed, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as in that case the trade balance would remain in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the rather strong decline that lasted two months. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. The current bullish trend can be considered completed, as prices fell below two lows (from May 12 and August 1), but what will drive the bears to push the pound further down? Precisely because I cannot answer this question, I do not believe that the process of dollar decline will continue. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound can be reconsidered.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 29, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:

For the pound, the picture is beginning to look more pleasant. Three bullish patterns have been worked out, signals have been formed, and traders can maintain buy positions. I see no informational grounds for a bearish trend in the near future.

A resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected already from the imbalance 1 zone. At this point, the pound has reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, and imbalance 11. As a potential growth target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, although the pound may rise much higher—albeit next year. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be reconsidered, but for now I see no reason to do so.

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Bitcoin stuck in deadlock

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Bitcoin is ending 2025 in a deadlock. The cryptocurrency shows few signs of life, remaining in consolidation within the range of 84,000 to 94,000. An asset that has grown over the years due to hype, volatility, and quick fluctuations now lies in the shadow of American stock indices returning to record levels, while gold is ready to showcase its best performance since 1979. Apart from the price, this year has been quite notable for the digital asset.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and other assets in 2025

In 2025, the volume of cryptocurrency transactions quadrupled—from $2.17 billion to $8.6 billion. Major transactions included Coinbase's acquisition of the derivatives trading platform Deribit for $2.9 billion, Kraken's purchase of the American futures retail platform NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, and Ripple's acquisition of the cryptocurrency prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25 billion.

The total number of transactions increased to 267, an 18% rise. While this may not seem as impressive as the volume itself, it's still a solid figure. When considering the widespread desire among companies engaged in digital assets to go public, a more friendly regulatory environment, the rollback of lawsuits against crypto companies, and the lifting of bans, 2025 can confidently be called a successful year for Bitcoin—aside from the price.

Dynamics of BTC/USD and the moving average

The arrival of institutional investors in the market led to reduced volatility. BTC/USD stopped being purchased simply because the asset was rising. Some refer to this period as one of maturity, as fears about the cryptocurrency disappearing from financial markets seemed to wane. However, the more significant factor was the surplus.

Crypto whales and long-term holders actively divested their Bitcoin. This represents the fastest token sell-off in at least five years. Supply surged while demand failed to absorb it. Previously popular specialized exchange-traded funds faced capital outflows.

Crypto treasury managers were hesitant to buy digital assets in a bear market. Even industry pioneer Michael Saylor's Strategy began forming reserves after two weeks of acquiring Bitcoin. To do this, the company raised $748 million through the issuance of common stock.

As a result of the cryptocurrency market transitioning to a surplus, the paths of BTC/USD and US stock indices diverged. Bitcoin, once associated with digital gold, hopelessly lagged behind traditional gold. It no longer qualifies as either a risky asset or a safe haven. In other words, it has become irrelevant. It is no surprise that Bitcoin concludes 2025 in a deadlock.

Technical analysis

Technically, the daily chart of BTC/USD continues to show consolidation within the range of 84,000 to 94,000. What is this? Accumulation of longs or distribution of shorts? The answer to this question may only come with Bitcoin's exit from this trading corridor. It may make sense to set sell orders at 84,000 and buy orders at 94,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Dollar closes year with dismal dynamic

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Seldom has any US president intervened in the Forex market as much as Donald Trump. Since his election victory in November 2024, Trump trading thrived as the US dollar strengthened. At that time, it was believed that the divergence in economic growth between the United States and other regions would widen due to tariffs. Then came TACO, or "Trump Always Comes Out." Investors realized that the tariffs imposed on Independence Day were a ceiling and would eventually need to be reduced. As a result, the USD index plunged into a wave of sell-offs.

Dynamics of the US dollar since the presidential elections

By initiating a restructuring of the international trade system, Donald Trump turned the fundamental principles of Forex rate formation upside down. As a result, after the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate in September and October, the US dollar unexpectedly surged. The yen, on the other hand, weakened after the Bank of Japan raised its overnight rate to its highest level since 1995 in December. The markets were faced with numerous paradoxes and mistakes. But, as is known, mistakes are learning opportunities.

Forex traders recalled fiscal dominance—when a president or government pressures the central bank to lower rates or keep them low to reduce debt servicing costs. In the US, this was done by Donald Trump, while in Japan, it was new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The result was the underdog position of the US dollar and yen among G10 currencies in 2025. Markets penalize for undermining trust. However, while Washington may welcome devaluation, Tokyo is not thrilled by it.

The euro faced plenty of challenges this past year, particularly with French politics. However, while the decline of the US dollar was driven by disappointment, the success of the regional currency was a result of underestimation. Let's remember that in 2025, it entered as an underdog. US tariffs were expected to lead to a slowdown in international trade, which would be disastrous for the export-oriented eurozone and its currency.

Expert Predictions for ECB Deposit Rates

In reality, the currency bloc proved much more resilient to US import tariffs, and the ECB managed to tame inflation. Most Bloomberg experts believe that the ECB has ended its cycle of monetary easing, while the Federal Reserve has not. If that's the case, EUR/USD should continue to rise.

By the end of 2025, everything turned upside down. The euro enters 2026 as a favorite, while the US dollar is now the underdog. Most analysts agree on this outlook. When the market is so heavily saturated with "bulls" in EUR/USD, any positive news from the US or negative news from the eurozone can lead to a sell-off of the main currency pair.

Technically, a Double Top pattern was formed on the daily chart of EUR/USD. A return of the euro to its highs of $1.181 will trigger buy signals. Conversely, a successful breach of support at $1.176 will provide grounds for sales.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is trading near an all-time high. This year, gold's price performance has been truly impressive: since the beginning of the year, the metal has gained more than 70%, making this year the strongest since 1979. Such growth is driven by heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, as well as strong investment inflows from institutional players.

Another significant factor fueling record prices has been the weakening of the U.S. dollar, caused by protectionist rhetoric from U.S. leadership and the easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. In 2025, the Fed cut its key interest rate by 75 basis points. In addition, markets are pricing in two more rate cuts next year. This scenario continues to support strong demand for gold, as low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as precious metals.In the short term, gold may enter a consolidation phase, as the lack of new drivers and year-end profit-taking could put some pressure on the market. However, the primary trend remains upward, suggesting a high probability of continued growth in 2026.

Regarding monetary policy, the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting. Central bank Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the Fed is prepared to wait and assess further developments. The CME FedWatch tool shows only a 13% probability of a rate cut in January. At the same time, by the end of the year the Federal Reserve is expected to resume easing measures due to signs of slowing inflation and weakness in the labor market.

The geopolitical situation remains tense: the ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict, instability in the Middle East, and rising tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela create additional challenges for the market and support expectations of further gains in the price of the yellow metal.

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart gold is trading in uncharted territory, although the risks of a modest correction are increasing. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in overbought territory, showing early signs of fatigue.

The broader bullish structure remains intact, as prices are trading well above key moving averages. On the downside, the $4,430 level could act as the first line of defense, followed by the 9-day EMA and the psychological $4,400 level. On the other hand, gold is poised to set new records.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What awaits the dollar in the new year? (There is a possibility of continued decline in USD and Bitcoin)

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On the last day of the week, it is worth summing up the outgoing year and making a forecast for the year ahead. Today, we will focus on the prospects of the U.S. dollar.

So, at the end of last year (2024) and at the beginning of this year, after a local rise amid the election of D. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, the U.S. dollar sharply reversed downward, dragged lower by a whole series of trade wars unleashed by him. In effect, the president's aggressive trade policy turned into a geopolitical war, which had a significant negative impact on an already weak national economy. This became the reason for a sharp drop in demand for the dollar and its steepest decline over the past two years.

An additional negative factor was the resumption of the Fed's interest rate–cutting cycle in the summer, while the political struggle between Republicans and Democrats in Congress led to a government shutdown that lasted almost a month and a half, causing serious damage to the economy and demoralizing investors in the markets. Against this backdrop, and up to the present time, the dollar index (ICE) has been moving within a rather narrow sideways range, gradually shifting toward its lower boundary at 96.50 points.

The latest inflation and U.S. labor market data indicate that the problems in the country's economy are very serious and that it is in dire need of stimulus—that is, more substantial monetary easing. Such prospects allow for a forecast of a greater number of interest rate cuts by the regulator in the new year. Whereas previously the Fed itself projected only one cut of 0.25%, the market now believes there will be two. However, in my view, if the labor market picture remains negative for a significant period of time and inflation stays below the 3% level, there could be as many as three cuts, which would cumulatively reduce the overall level of interest rates by 1.5% from the current level of 3.75% to 3.25%.

But that is not all. It is expected that J. Powell will be replaced by D. Trump's appointee, K. Hassett, who is a proponent of a significantly more accommodative interest rate policy.

All these factors could lead to a more substantial reduction in borrowing costs, and the key interest rate in 2026 could fall below the 3% level.

Of course, under such a scenario, the U.S. dollar would remain under pressure and, by the end of next year, could fall to the area of 90 points on its index.

What can be expected from the dollar by the end of the year?

I believe that already at the beginning of the year, the dollar will fall to the 96.50 level.

Daily forecast:

#USD

The indicator is trading at the 98.00 level. Based on the forecast outlined in the article, I believe it may fall to 96.50 at the beginning of the new year. The level for selling can be considered 97.78.

Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency remains under pressure, and its inability to rise above the 90,150.00 level may lead to a resumption of the decline, first to 85,930.00 and then to 81,968.00. The level for selling can be considered 78,066.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/US Forecast on December 26, 2025

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802, and did so once again on Friday morning. Thursday was a holiday. Thus, traders have already seen three rebounds from the same resistance zone. The decline may continue toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718. A consolidation above the 1.1795–1.1802 level would work in favor of the European currency and increase the probability of further growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% — 1.1919.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple. The most recent completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the latest downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls have regained confidence and are attacking with enthusiasm. The Fed's monetary easing is putting pressure on the dollar, and the ECB is not expected to create any problems for the euro in the near future.

On Wednesday, there was no news in either the U.S. or the European Union, and the entire current week is more holiday than work. I would like to remind you that the current year began with Donald Trump's election victory, which many immediately began to associate with a future weakening of the U.S. currency. Thus, 2025 got off to a poor start for the dollar. Even during his first presidential term, Trump repeatedly sought a weaker U.S. dollar, as he viewed its strength as a problem for exports. In his second term, Trump did not spend long talking about it and immediately got down to business. Of course, the U.S. president did not initiate a trade war in order to weaken the dollar, but in the end that is exactly what he achieved. The U.S. now receives additional budget revenues from import tariffs, and in addition, the dollar has fallen by 10–15% over the year, depending on the counter-currency. One could say that in the first year of his presidency, Trump achieved some of his goals. Next year, he may continue to pursue them, so I expect the dollar to fall even further.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and resumed growth toward the corrective level of 0.0% — 1.1829. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and a moderate decline toward the support zone of 1.1649–1.1680. A consolidation above 1.1829 would increase the likelihood of further euro growth. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and is only strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268 thousand, while short positions total 129 thousand. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. For example, the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation next May.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On December 26, the economic calendar contains no events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be absent.

EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:

Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.1795–1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1718. Buy positions can be opened on a close above the 1.1795–1.1802 level, with a target of 1.1919.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 26, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3533–1.3539, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3470. A rebound from this level would allow expectations of a reversal in favor of the British pound and a return to the 1.3533–1.3539 level. A consolidation below the support zone of 1.3437–1.3470 would increase the probability of a continued decline toward the 1.3352–1.3362 level.

The wave situation has once again turned "bullish" after the completion of the sideways movement. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave managed to break the previous peak. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. For a week, bulls and bears were locked in a tug-of-war and remained in relative balance, but a week before the New Year the bulls launched a new offensive.

There was no news background on Wednesday, but December news from the U.S. allowed bullish traders to begin a new advance. Due to the holidays, their momentum and activity have slightly faded, but after the New Year the offensive may resume. Much has already been said about reports on the labor market, inflation, and unemployment, so I will draw traders' attention to the GDP report and the FOMC's monetary policy. As everyone knows, the U.S. economy grew by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which was significantly higher than market expectations. However, this report provided virtually no support to the dollar. The Fed's monetary policy in January may remain at its current level, but this factor also does not support the bears. In my view, the problem is not that the market fails to see positive factors for the dollar, but that these factors are not actually positive. Economic growth is good when it is accompanied by growth in other economic indicators. In the U.S., however, unemployment is rising, the labor market is weakening, and business activity indices are declining. The fact that the FOMC may leave rates unchanged in January merely indicates that rates will remain unchanged. This is not policy tightening, but simply a pause. Thus, I believe the dollar will continue its downward trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435, which allows expectations of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% — 1.3795. A "bearish" divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, which may trigger a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions increased by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions now stands at roughly 60 thousand versus 135 thousand. As we can see, bears dominated in early December, but the pound appears to have exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is exactly the opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency periodically enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to pursue monetary easing to curb rising unemployment and stimulate the creation of new jobs. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more "dovish" one during the year.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 26, the economic calendar contains no events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.3533–1.3539 zone on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3470. If this level is broken, short positions can be held with targets at 1.3437 and 1.3362. I can recommend buying on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level with a target of 1.3533–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

S&P 500 rally: optimism amid uncertainty

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Christmas is a time for predictions. No one has a crystal ball, and Wall Street analysts are attempting the impossible: forecasting the future of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical conflicts, Donald Trump's ambitions to reshape the world, and his influence on the Federal Reserve, all while the broad stock index remains dependent on a small group of large companies. However, as the saying goes, the attempt is not a punishment. According to Piper Sandler, forecasts typically lag actual values by about two months. While specific figures may vary, direction matters.

Dynamics of Forecast Lags Relative to Actual S&P 500 Performance

The consensus estimate among Wall Street experts suggests an 11% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026. At the end of 2024, the broad market index was expected to rise by 9% in 2025, but it actually doubled that, exceeding even the most bullish forecast by 3 percentage points. The bullish projection for the next year stands at 8,000, set by Oppenheimer and Deutsche Bank, based on the assumption of a strong US economy that will drive corporate profits and, along with continued monetary expansion by the Fed, foster a sustained rally in the US stock market.

However, these drivers have largely already been priced into the S&P 500, along with the narrative surrounding artificial intelligence technology. These talking points are being pushed by most Wall Street analysts. When everyone is in the same boat, you don't need a recession to capsize it. Any disappointments regarding corporate earnings or macroeconomic data could trigger a spike in volatility and initiate a correction in the broad market index. Indeed, the gap between the most bullish and most bearish forecasts is just 16 percentage points, marking the smallest difference since 2017.

Dynamics of Bullish and Bearish Forecast Spreads for the S&P 500

Stifel and Bank of America expect the S&P 500 to rise to between 7,000 and 7,100. In more pessimistic scenarios, it could plunge to as low as 5,280. The US economy relies on the wealth effect and capital expenditures in AI technology. A reality check on artificial intelligence could lead to significant sell-offs in the broad market index, overturning the wealth effect and potentially culminating in a recession.

On Christmas, no one wants to be pessimistic. The consensus forecast from Bloomberg experts suggests a 2% expansion of the US economy in 2026. This does not indicate a downturn, so the level of anxiety regarding the US stock market could be reduced. Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant. In this world, anything is possible.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows a rise in prices for four consecutive trading sessions, with a recovery in the trend and a breakthrough to record peaks. The market is confidently moving toward the pivot levels of 7,000 and 7,100. As long as the broad market index trades above the key support level of fair value at 6,830, a focus on buying should be maintained.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 26: S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new one-year highs

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.32%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.60%.

Asian stock indices continued their pre-year-end growth amid low trading activity, while gold and silver reached record levels.

The regional MSCI index rose for the sixth consecutive day after the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday ahead of the Christmas holidays. The global equity index also hit an all-time high. The US dollar slipped slightly, fluctuating around levels seen in October.

Gold and silver prices surged amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, contributing to the ongoing historic rise in precious metal prices. Silver rose for the fifth consecutive session, increasing by 4.5% and surpassing the $75 per ounce mark for the first time. Gold, demonstrating its best annual growth since 1979, climbed by 1.2% to settle above $4,500 per ounce.

Investors who believe in the stock market's growth are pinning their hopes on the so-called "Christmas rally," which they expect will push stocks to new records despite concerns about excessive optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Traditionally, such a rally occurs during the last five trading sessions of the year and the first two in the new year.

Citigroup Inc. stated that as stock markets enter the fourth year of a bull market, their outlook remains positive. They emphasized that current fundamental factors clearly create opportunities for the continued development of major companies, supported by the influence of artificial intelligence.

Risk appetite has evidently increased as the year comes to a close, even though stronger-than-expected economic growth data in the United States has reduced expectations for a quick interest rate cut. Following earlier concerns about inflated valuations of technology stocks amid the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will demonstrate strong profit growth in 2026.

In commodity markets, oil experienced the largest weekly gain since late October, as traders monitored a partial US blockade on oil supplies from Venezuela and reported military strikes by Washington against a terrorist group in Nigeria.

The yen fell by 0.3% and traded around 156.22 against the dollar after inflation in Tokyo decreased more than anticipated. This has led to a weakening of the currency amid assumptions that the Bank of Japan may delay the next interest rate hike.

From a technical perspective, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,930. Achieving this will signal growth and open the door for a rally to a new level of $6,946. An equally critical task for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,961 mark to strengthen their positions. In case of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,914. A break below this level could quickly drive the trading instrument back down to $6,896 and pave the way to $6,883.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.99 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly up from the zero mark, which limited the upside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Today's news of a decline in Tokyo's consumer price index and a sharp drop in Japan's industrial production weakened the yen's position against the dollar. Data indicating slight deflationary trends and slowing economic growth increased pressure on the Bank of Japan, which recently raised interest rates. Investors now expect that the central bank will likely be more cautious in its next steps, which negatively impacts the yen's attractiveness. The decline in industrial production, especially in key sectors such as automotive and electronics, raised concerns about Japan's export competitiveness. Deterioration of these indicators may lead to a decrease in the trade surplus and, consequently, further weakening of the yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.34 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.74 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.74, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 156.12 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 156.34 and 156.74.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.12 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.65 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell from as high a point as possible. Important! Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 156.34 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.12 and 155.65.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3504 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved down significantly from the zero mark. A second test at 1.3504 occurred when the MACD was recovering from oversold territory, allowing the realization of Scenario No. 2: buying the pound. However, the pair did not rise as expected.

Today, there are no economic reports for the UK, so trading will remain within the sideways channel. The absence of macroeconomic drivers suggests that the British pound will consolidate against other major currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar and the euro. Market participants will focus on technical levels and minor fluctuations in sentiment rather than fundamental factors. In such conditions, short-term traders may attempt to profit from small fluctuations within the established range, using scalping strategies or trading from the channel boundaries. However, it is important to remember the increased risk of false breakouts due to low liquidity and speculative activity.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3502 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3530 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3530, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3480 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3502 and 1.3530.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3480 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3464 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and also buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may manifest themselves during the correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3502 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3480 and 1.3464.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1793 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair declined by 20 pips.

On Wednesday, the lack of data ahead of the Christmas holidays affected volatility in the currency market. Trading took place within a narrow range but exhibited sharp fluctuations due to low liquidity.

Today is likely to proceed as yesterday did. Buyer activity in the EUR/USD pair during the post-Christmas period and ahead of the upcoming weekend is unlikely to be high. Against this backdrop, low liquidity increases the market's sensitivity to sudden fluctuations. In the absence of significant macroeconomic factors, the focus will primarily be on technical indicators. However, one must understand that the prevailing tendency ahead of the New Year is a wait-and-see approach, so I wouldn't expect strong directional movements.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros at a price around 1.1797 (green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.1825. At the 1.1825 level, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be done within the framework of the trend. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1779 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1797 and 1.1825.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1779 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1757, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1797 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1779 and 1.1757.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 26

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Bitcoin has returned to the $89,000 region today, clearly trying to catch up with the U.S. stock market, which set a new annual high mid-week. Ethereum has also climbed back to the $3,000 mark. However, whether this bullish momentum can be sustained by the end of the week is a complex question.

With the New Year holidays approaching, it's unlikely that traders will engage in anything extraordinary, so I wouldn't anticipate continued bullish trends for Bitcoin above $90,000 or for Ethereum above $3,000. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, whales have sharply reduced BTC transfers to exchanges. For example, the volume of deposits from large players to one of the largest global cryptocurrency exchanges decreased from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion in December. This suggests that fewer and fewer people are willing to sell, which is good for the market's bullish prospects.

This significant drop in BTC deposits from large holders on cryptocurrency exchanges is an important indicator of changing market sentiments. A decrease in major investors' willingness to sell their assets indicates increasing confidence in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market's future. Whales may be revising their investment strategies, considering the long-term potential of BTC and anticipating further growth in its value. However, the reduction in sales could also be linked to growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies and the emergence of new opportunities for holding and managing digital assets without the need for direct sales on exchanges.

Regarding intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the long term, which has not disappeared.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin:

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $89,300, targeting a rise to $90,300. Near $90,300, I will exit my long positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.
• Scenario 2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $88,700 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $89,300 and $90,300.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $88,700, targeting a drop to $87,900. Near $87,900, I will exit my short positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.
• Scenario 2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $89,300 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $88,700 and $87,900.

Ethereum:

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,979, targeting a rise to $3,015. Near $3,015, I will exit my longs and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.
• Scenario 2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $2,958 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $2,979 and $3,015.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,958, targeting a drop to $2,934. Near $2,934, I will exit my shorts and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.
• Scenario 2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $2,979 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $2,958 and $2,934.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 26

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The euro and British pound have maintained their strength; however, trading for these instruments continues within a range. The USD/JPY pair has also stabilized, and by the end of the week, significant changes are unlikely.

On Wednesday, the pre-holiday lull in economic data led to slight instability in currency trading. Trading across many pairs was conducted within a limited corridor, although it displayed sharp shifts, attributed to a liquidity shortage. It is expected that after the New Year holidays, trading in the currency market will gradually intensify. With the return of market participants and the release of new statistical data, sharp, uncontrollable movements may subside, and price dynamics will become more predictable.

Today promises to be relatively calm, as buyers of EUR/USD are unlikely to make their presence felt after Christmas. Liquidity will remain low, making the market vulnerable to sudden spikes and drops, so traders should exercise particular caution. In the absence of significant drivers, attention will be focused on technical levels and local news.

I'd like to remind you that, currently, in the lead-up to the New Year, a wait-and-see position prevails. Many market participants have already closed their annual positions and prefer not to take risks, fearing unpredictable fluctuations. Trading volumes have significantly decreased, creating additional difficulties for those trying to trade actively.

There are no news releases from the UK today, so a similar situation awaits the British pound.

If the data corresponds with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on breakout above 1.1807, targeting 1.1840 and 1.1882.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1781, targeting 1.1760 and 1.1730.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on breakout above 1.3502, targeting 1.3531 and 1.3561.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3471, targeting 1.3442 and 1.3411.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on breakout above 155.30, targeting 156.68 and 157.05.
• Sell on a breakout below 155.99, targeting 155.67 and 155.32.

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1798, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1775 upon returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3529, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3485 upon returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6727, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6697 upon returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3687, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3663 upon returning to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 26? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Review of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The holidays continue. In the first two trading days of the week, the market showed strong volatility on pre-holiday days; however, we should not expect every day for the remainder of the year to be equally volatile.

Review of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. Governments and central banks are going on holiday for Christmas and New Year, so news will not start coming in until next year. The first interesting events are planned for January 5.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the holiday week, both currency pairs may trade sluggishly. Short-term trends for both currency pairs remain upward, and the market is in full holiday mode. The "thin" market factor may lead to trend movement today, but this can't be predicted. We would expect a flat market today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 26? Simple Tips and Trade Breakdown for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1-Hour Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair moved similarly to the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. The attempt to continue the upward movement ended without result, and a downward correction began, which is ongoing today. Volatility was ultra-low, but the upward trend is still intact. It can be said that the dollar received minimal support from the U.S. jobless claims report, which came in below forecasts; however, this report is absolutely secondary. In any case, there was virtually no movement throughout Wednesday. Thus, trading shifts to Friday and is likely to continue into next week. From our perspective, the British pound is expected to continue rising at the beginning of 2026, as suggested by nearly all timeframes. The macroeconomic and fundamental background has been absent for the past two days in both the UK and the U.S.

5-Minute Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Wednesday, which novice traders could have capitalized on if they wished. The price bounced twice from the level of 1.3529, which is part of the area 1.3529-1.3543. In both instances, the price moved down by about 20 pips. Today, the decline may continue, but it is unlikely to be strong.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its flat and has once again started moving upwards. We fully support this development, as previously mentioned. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we anticipate movement only to the upside. Overall, we expect the global upward trend to resume in 2025, which could push the pair to the 1.4000 mark in the next couple of months.

On Friday, novice traders can consider new long positions if the price breaks the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3574-1.3590. Short positions will become relevant upon a new bounce from the area of 1.3529-1.3543, targeting 1.3437-1.3446.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently occur at the levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. There are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the U.S. on Friday, and market volatility has decreased following the relatively active Monday and Tuesday. The market is currently "thin," making it easier for market makers to move the price than usual, but this does not automatically mean they want to do so.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 26? Simple Tips and Trade Breakdown for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1-Hour Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed minimal movement on Wednesday, declining by about 20-30 pips. Volatility was practically absent as the market geared up for Christmas, with no macroeconomic or fundamental backdrop. The market was closed on Thursday, and trading resumed only tonight. It can be said that the holidays have started, meaning there will be more days off than usual, and volatility may be ultra-low during these days. If the market finds any grounds for trading, predicting possible movements will only be possible based on technical factors. The hourly timeframe continues to show an upward trend, so buy signals are more relevant for execution. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent on Wednesday and Thursday, and will remain absent on Friday.

5-Minute Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was generated on Wednesday—a bounce from the level of 1.1808. This occurred during the Asian trading session and was profitable, with the price moving down by about 20 pips, which novice traders could have captured. On Friday night, we did not see any interesting movements or trading signals.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon retest the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which marks the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. It is quite possible that this time we will see a breakout from the six-month sideways channel. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the U.S. dollar; thus, we expect the pair to grow in the medium term.

On Friday, novice traders can trade from the 1.1808 level, where the price bounced on Wednesday. A bounce from this level can be viewed as a sell signal, but we are still dealing with an upward trend even in the short term. A breakout of this level will allow for long positions with a target of 1.1851.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider the following levels: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. There are no significant events or reports scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S. today. Thus, we may expect very weak movements.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for Bitcoin on December 26 According to the ICT System

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Bitcoin has also been relatively inactive in recent days. Volatility in the cryptocurrency market has diminished during the holiday season, but the upward correction may be coming to an end. This means that a new decline could start at any moment. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is once again in sideways movement. Within the range, trading opportunities should be sought only near the channel's boundaries. We see that signals have been received only around the upper boundary, two deviations. A deviation formed near the lower boundary could indicate growth potential, but we remind you that we are primarily interested in sell signals, not buy signals. If Bitcoin manages to establish itself below the range soon, we can again consider any "bearish" patterns for short trades.

The market, aside from various "crypto experts" who always predict growth, continues to cool down. It is evident that after three years of growth, it is time for profit-taking, seeking alternative investment tools, and taking a bit of a pause. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a lull right now. It is worth noting that for most of the time, almost any market and instrument is either in correction or flat. Thus, we should expect a trend resumption while waiting for trades at the boundaries of the flat.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the Daily Timeframe

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend, and the correction might be complete. The trend structure is identified as downward; the June "bullish" order block was addressed, the April bullish FVG has been surpassed, and the $84,000 level (38.2% on the Fibonacci retracement), which we highlighted as a target, has been reached. Further, Bitcoin could decline to as low as $60,000, where it began its last ascent. During the last phase of decline, a small bearish FVG was formed, which serves as the only Point of Interest (POI) for new sales. However, Bitcoin has not yet addressed this pattern.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 4-Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe, the technical picture also clearly indicates a downward trend, and the price still resides in the updated sideways channel. The CHOCH line (change of character) at the $87,600 level has been broken; therefore, the short-term upward trend has been broken. However, within the flat, local trends do not matter. In the near future, traders can only engage in trading from the boundaries of the channel. Moreover, sell signals are much more attractive than buy signals. Formally, two sell signals have already been generated. Thus, we can still expect a decline toward the lower line of the flat. The latest liquidity grab also indicates a continuation of the downward movement.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin has broken the upward structure on the daily timeframe and is forming a full-fledged downward trend for the first time in three years. The two nearest targets (the bullish OB in the range of $98,000–$102,700 and the bullish FVG) have been addressed, and we should now expect a drop to $70,800 (the 50.0% level on the Fibonacci retracement from the three-year upward trend). The nearest POI for selling includes the closest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the range of $96,800 – $98,000, which Bitcoin has not yet managed to reach. On the 4-hour timeframe, short positions could have been opened near the upper line of the sideways channel after deviations, but there are currently no new signals.

Explanations to Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Break of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop loss of traders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Eventually, price tends to return and react to these areas.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react but breaks through impulsively and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to grab liquidity for forming their own position in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.