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USD/JPY: Tips for Beginning Traders for November 21st (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.96 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

In the second half of the day, a number of important U.S. economic indicators are expected to be released: the Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as the Composite PMI. In addition, the results of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey and data on inflation expectations will be published. Traders closely monitor these reports because they provide important information about the current state of the U.S. economy. The manufacturing activity index reflects activity in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI indicates the health of the services sector, which plays a significant role in the U.S. economy. The composite PMI combines data from these two sectors to give an overall picture of economic activity. Readings above 50 indicate growth, while readings below 50 point to contraction. The Michigan consumer sentiment index is an important indicator of consumer spending, as consumer spending makes up a large portion of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations included in the report are also important because they can influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates.

Overall, the release of these data may cause fluctuations in the USD/JPY currency pair, but only if the actual figures differ significantly from economists' forecasts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry point around 156.98 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the 157.39 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.39, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Growth in the pair can be expected as the bullish market continues. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.72 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 156.98 and 157.39.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 156.72 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. Sellers' key target will be the 156.31 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.98 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.72 and 156.31 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginning Forex traders must be very careful when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginning Traders for November 21st (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3084 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair fell by more than 35 points.

The pound collapsed after a weak UK Services PMI, which dropped to 50.5 points. The decline in the Services PMI is certainly an alarming signal. A reading above 50 indicates expansion of the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. The 50.5 reading suggests that growth has nearly stalled, and the outlook for the near future appears highly uncertain. Experts cite high inflation—which continues to pressure households and businesses—elevated interest rates, and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the country's future budget as key factors behind the slowdown in service-sector growth.

Next, traders will shift their attention to similar U.S. data. The Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI, and the Michigan sentiment report will play a key role in determining the direction of the GBP/USD pair. If the indicators show increased manufacturing and service activity, this may signal strengthening in the U.S. economy. In that case, the U.S. dollar will likely strengthen relative to the British pound, leading to a decline in GBP/USD. Conversely, if the PMIs come in below expectations, this may raise concerns about slowing economic growth in the U.S. Investors may then begin selling the dollar, which would strengthen the pound and push GBP/USD higher.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry point around 1.3068 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3094 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3094, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). You can rely on pound growth today only if the data are weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3052 twice in a row at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3068 and 1.3094 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3052 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. Sellers' key target will be the 1.3025 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pound will return if the indicators are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3068 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3052 and 1.3025 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit can be set or profit can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginning Forex traders must be very careful when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stops, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large positions.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginning Traders for November 21st (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.1547 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The negative dynamics of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI triggered a wave of concerns about a slowdown in economic growth in the region. Investors fear that the European Central Bank may face the need to revise its monetary policy, which had previously been aimed at keeping interest rates unchanged. Now, against the backdrop of worsening economic indicators, pressure on the ECB will shift toward a more accommodative policy aimed at supporting economic growth. The composite PMI index, which reflects the overall state of the Eurozone economy, also declined, though it remained above the critical 50-point threshold. This signals that the economy is still showing moderate growth overall, but the pace has slowed significantly compared to previous months.

Similar U.S. figures are expected in the second half of the day. Traders always pay close attention to these data, as they provide insight into the current state of the U.S. economy and can influence Federal Reserve decisions regarding future monetary policy. The manufacturing PMI reflects activity in the manufacturing sector, while the services PMI shows the state of the services sector, which makes up a large portion of the U.S. economy. The composite PMI combines data from both sectors, providing an overall picture of economic activity. All indicators are expected to remain above 50 points, indicating expanding activity, which will support the dollar.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index report is an important indicator of consumer spending, since consumer spending accounts for a significant share of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations included in the report are also important, as they may influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro if the price reaches the level of 1.1527 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the 1.1555 level. At 1.1555, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. You can count on euro growth today only after weak U.S. labor market data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1506 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1527 and 1.1555.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1506 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1479, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the statistics are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1527 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1506 and 1.1479 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – expected price at which you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – expected price at which you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large positions.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 21-25, 2025: buy above $4,026 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,059, rebounding after reaching the 200 EMA around $4,026 and also reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel located at $4,019.

Gold could continue its rise in the coming hours and reach the daily resistance zone around $4,081. If it breaks this level, it could continue its rise to $4,145.

If gold consolidates above the 21 SMA and 6/8 Murray in the coming hours, we could open long positions, with short-term targets around $4,218. The instrument could even reach $4,311.

An obvious change in the trend for gold could be confirmed if the price decisively breaks the uptrend channel and consolidates below the 200 EMA located at $4,026. It could even fall to the 5/8 Murray located around $3,906.

The Eagle indicator is giving a negative signal, so if the price reaches resistance levels such as $4,081 or $4,120, it could be seen as an opportunity to plan short positions with a target at the psychological level of $4,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for November 21-25, 2025: buy above $80,000 (rebound - 1/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin reached a low around the psychological level of $80,000. From this level, we observed a technical rebound, so it is likely that BTC will continue to rise in the coming hours and could return to levels of $85,000 or even 2/8 Murray located at $87,500.

Given that the support at the bottom of the downtrend channel and the 1/8 Murray line coincided at $81,250, this level will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions if the price returns or rebounds above this zone.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, so we could consider long positions as long as the price consolidates above 1/8 Murray.

If the price falls below 1/8 Murray, we could expect BTC to reach the key support of 0/8 Murray around $75,000.

In the short term, the outlook for Bitcoin remains negative. An area where we could plan opening short positions could be around $87,500 or around $89,200, a level that coincides with the top of the downtrend channel.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 21-25, 2025: buy above 1.1474 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1520, rebounding after reaching the key level of 1.1500 in the European session. The instrument appears to be finding good support in this area and is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the top of the downtrend channel located at 1.1627.

If the downward pressure persists in the coming hours, the euro is expected to find good support around the 6/8 Murray located at 1.1474. This area could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions, provided that the price consolidates above this zone.

If the euro breaks decisively through the 21 SMA located at 1.1549, it could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying with a target at the 200 EMA located at 1.1595.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so the euro could continue its fall in the coming hours until it reaches the bottom of the downtrend channel located at 1.1420.

The outlook could be positive for EUR/USD only if it consolidates above 1.1550 in the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin and stock market plunge, Google leaps, and Strategy threatened

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In this article, we will take a detailed look at how the drop in Bitcoin has unsettled the crypto market and put significant holders of digital assets at risk. What sentiments prevail in the US and Asia against the backdrop of a decline in high-tech stocks and uncertain interest rate prospects? Why might Strategy lose $8.8 billion, and how will this impact the market? Finally, how is the release of Gemini 3 by Google changing the dynamics in the AI space? All the key events of the week are covered in our report.

Bitcoin sinks below $85,000

The crypto market is experiencing one of its most alarming declines in recent months. The price of Bitcoin has fallen below $85,000, trading at $84,357 at the time of writing. This marks a low since April, representing nearly a 30% drop from the all-time high of $126,000 (set in early October).

This mass correction, of course, sparked a panic among investors and led to subsequent liquidations of positions amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. Analysts are starting to discuss the possibility of a market bottom approaching.

The decline in Bitcoin has triggered a chain reaction: according to data from the analytical platform CoinGlass, over the course of just one hour, positions worth more than $250 million were liquidated. The total liquidation amount for the day exceeded $910 million, forcing over 220,000 traders to close their positions amid margin calls, which were rampant on both centralized exchanges and in the DeFi segment.

The crypto market sentiment index, the Fear & Greed Index, has sharply dropped to 11, indicating an "extreme fear" status among market participants. Within a single day, the index lost four points, signaling an immediate deterioration in market sentiment.

The plunge in the flagship cryptocurrency also coincided with a significant event: one of the earliest major investors in Bitcoin, Owen Gundersen, has completely exited his position, selling all 11,000 BTC worth approximately $1.3 billion. He transferred the last 2,499 BTC to the Kraken exchange on the morning of November 20, as revealed by analysis from Arkham Intelligence.

"Veterans don't move large sums for fun; they do it to sell," one trader commented on social media regarding Gundersen's actions.

Underlying risks have intensified at the macro level as well. World investor and founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, expressed doubts about Bitcoin's long-term viability. During an interview with CNBC, he stated, "Bitcoin will not become a reserve currency for major states because it is traceable, subject to control, and may be vulnerable to hacking through quantum technologies in the future." Dalio also acknowledged that only about 1% of his portfolio is allocated to cryptocurrency.

Against the overall negative backdrop, an unexpected positive signal emerged in the form of inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs. On November 19, American Bitcoin ETFs reported a net inflow of $75 million, breaking a five-week streak of outflows during which investors pulled over $2 billion from the market.

The bulk of this inflow came from two major instruments – the iShares Bitcoin Trust and the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust. The turnaround occurred just one day after a record outflow of $523 million from BlackRock's IBIT.

Blockchain data analysis indicated the capitulation of short-term investors—those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. According to on-chain metrics, from November 14 to 19, they moved approximately 148,241 BTC to exchanges—all at a loss. The profitability metric for spent exits in this group of investors (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) has decreased to 0.97, indicating mass selling below the acquisition price.

Conclusions and opportunities for traders

The massive sell-offs from whales and the capitulation of short-term investors, along with statements from influential figures and instability in the stock market, have created high volatility that can be exploited in trading. Price declines present opportunities for short-term speculation on rebounds and long-term investments for those who believe in a market recovery.

Amid renewed inflows into ETFs and mass liquidation of losing positions, the market may form a bottom, providing good entry points for new trades. All the trading instruments mentioned in this article, including Bitcoin and ETFs based on it, are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To seize the market movement opportunities, open a trading account with InstaForex today. For added convenience, track positions and analyze the market anytime by simply downloading the InstaForex mobile app.

US and Asia shaken by sell-offs: fears surrounding AI and uncertainty from the Fed have crushed markets

Financial markets are once again shaken by instability: on Thursday, American stock exchanges experienced one of the most volatile sessions since April, and by Friday, Asian markets caught the downward trend. The cause of this turn was renewed concerns about a "bubble" in the artificial intelligence sector and diminished hopes for easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

On Thursday, the S&P 500 index initially soared by 1.9%, but by the end of trading, it collapsed by 1.6%, closing at 6,538.76. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 386 points, or 0.8%, finishing at 45,752.26. The most significant drop was recorded by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite; after rising 2.6% during the session, it ended the day down 2.2%, closing at 22,078.05.

One of the key figures of the trading day was tech giant Nvidia. The company reported impressive financial results for the third quarter, with revenue reaching $57 billion and a forecast of $65 billion for the next quarter, exceeding analysts' expectations.

Initially, Nvidia's shares rose by 5%, but investors quickly changed their sentiment: prices reversed downward, closing with a decline of 3.2%. This triggered a general weakening in the technology sector amid doubts about the prudence of massive investments in AI infrastructure. According to a Bank of America survey, a record number of investors believe that companies are "overinvesting" in AI development.

On Friday, Asian markets continued the negative trend. The Japanese Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.8%, while the South Korean KOSPI suffered the most significant losses at minus 4.09%. The region's tech giants were particularly hard hit: SoftBank's shares fell by more than 10%, Samsung Electronics dropped by 5.8%, and SK Hynix declined by 8.6%.

Investor uncertainty was further fueled by a delayed US employment report. While 119,000 new jobs were created in September (more than double the forecast of 50,000), the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The published data intensified disagreements regarding the Fed's future actions. According to CME Group data, the probability of a rate cut in December stands at about 40%, up from 30% the previous day, reflecting ongoing doubts about a shift in monetary policy.

Against this backdrop of sell-offs, cryptocurrency assets were also impacted. Bitcoin fell below $87,000, losing nearly $40,000 from its peak levels of last month, marking the lowest level since April. Shares of crypto companies also declined: Robinhood Markets dropped by 10.1%, while Coinbase Global fell by 7.4%.

The sharp decline in the shares of technology companies and cryptocurrency assets may signal concerns, but it simultaneously presents opportunities for traders who can profit from both rising and falling markets. In particular, the volatility of assets like Nvidia, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices provides ample trading opportunities for both short-term bearish plays and long-term investments based on rebounds.

MicroStrategy at risk of exclusion from indices: $8.8-billion outflow threatens market stability

This week, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), known for holding significant Bitcoin reserves, has come under scrutiny due to the potential exclusion of its shares from key stock indices. According to JPMorgan analysis, this could lead to a large capital outflow of up to $8.8 billion.

The decision for exclusion may be made by the international index provider MSCI as early as January 2026. Experts warn that such a development could deliver a serious blow to the investment attractiveness of Strategy.

Plans by MSCI to review the composition of its indices have been actively discussed since October. According to the company's statement, the proposal is on the agenda to exclude from Global Investment Indices firms whose digital assets (including cryptocurrencies) exceed 50% of their total assets. Consultations with market participants will continue until December 31, 2025, and a final decision will be announced on January 15, 2026. The implementation of potential changes is scheduled for February 2026 as part of the planned rebalancing of the indices.

"Some market participants pointed out that such companies resemble investment funds that are ineligible for inclusion in the indices," said representatives of MSCI in October.

According to JPMorgan's estimates, if MSCI decides to exclude Strategy, passive funds could withdraw up to $2.8 billion. Additionally, if other index providers follow MSCI's example, an additional $6 billion could be at risk. In total, about $9 billion, or approximately 18% of Strategy's market capitalization, is tied to passive investment instruments tracking indices such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World.

This news has added pressure on Strategy's shares, which have already fallen 38% since the beginning of the year, closing at $186.50 on November 19. This is more than 60% below their 52-week high of $473.83. Analysts note that the decrease in liquidity and decline in investor interest have caused Strategy's market capitalization to diverge significantly from the value of its Bitcoin reserves.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin itself is also showing weakness: on November 20, it fell to $86,681, losing about 30% from its recent peak above $103,000 earlier this month.

JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, assert that the current decline in Strategy's shares reflects less the weakness of Bitcoin and more the growing concerns over the potential exclusion from indices. This, they believe, could weaken the company's ability to attract capital, undermine its market reputation, and reduce stock liquidity, making it less appealing to institutional investors.

Conclusions and opportunities for traders

The situation surrounding Strategy presents an interesting example of how regulatory decisions and the structure of a company's assets can impact its market capitalization and attractiveness to investors. Traders should closely monitor developments, as fluctuations in Strategy's shares amid MSCI's decisions and Bitcoin's volatility create potential for profitable trading in both short-term and long-term strategies.

How can traders benefit from the situation? Trading Strategy's shares and cryptocurrencies (including Bitcoin) provide opportunities to profit from both market rises and falls. For example, if one is confident in the continued decline of the share price, short positions could be opened, while market reversals offer opportunities to buy at lower prices. Furthermore, the spreads between the share price and the value of the company's Bitcoin reserves offer arbitrage opportunities for experienced participants.

All the mentioned instruments, including Strategy shares, Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies, are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To capitalize on current market fluctuations and open a position today, traders should register an account with InstaForex. For additional convenience, you can download the company's mobile app and trade anytime, anywhere.

Google launches Gemini 3: tech giant takes the lead in the AI race

On Tuesday, Google unveiled its latest development in artificial intelligence – the Gemini 3 model. According to the company, this is the most advanced AI solution it has created to date. The instant resonance in the industry and overwhelming market reaction followed: Alphabet shares, Google's parent company, surged by 6.9% and for the first time in history surpassed $300 per share. Alphabet's market capitalization approached $3.44 trillion, nearly catching up to the industry leader.

The launch of Gemini 3 dealt a serious blow to competitors OpenAI and Anthropic. Google's new language model dominated key metrics: in the Humanity's Last Exam test, which evaluates academic thinking, Gemini 3 achieved a score of 37.5%, significantly higher than OpenAI's GPT 5.1 (26.5%) and Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 4.5 (13.7%).

Additionally, the model set a record in the LMArena rankings, scoring an Elo of 1501 — the first system in history to surpass the psychological threshold of 1500.

The Google team integrated Gemini 3 into the search engine on the day of its release — a first for the company. It was also announced that the model would be available through the Gemini app, which has over 650 million active users per month, as well as through developer platforms AI Studio and Vertex AI.

According to Talsi Doshi, head of the Gemini model development team, the next-generation AI has demonstrated astonishing progress in cognitive skills. Gemini 3 achieved 91.9% accuracy in the GPQA Diamond benchmark for PhD-level scientific thinking and 81% in the MMMU-Pro test, which assesses multimodal understanding of information.

Google also announced the launch of a separate platform called Antigravity, designed to create code using AI agents. The new platform can independently write, test, and debug software code, laying the groundwork for more autonomous developments in the future.

Despite the technological breakthrough, the model faces challenges. Testing conducted by Artificial Analysis revealed that Gemini 3 Pro has an "hallucination" rate of 88%—referring to instances when the AI confidently produces false information. Arthur d'Avila Garces, an expert from St George's University of London, warned that "one serious hallucination could undermine trust in the system."

Even Google CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledged that it is impossible to rely solely on the accuracy of AI: "Models are prone to errors, and users cannot blindly trust generated content," he stated in an interview with the BBC.

Interest in Alphabet intensified after it was disclosed on November 14 that the investment firm Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, had purchased shares of Alphabet worth $4.3 billion. Such support from one of the world's most esteemed investors added momentum to the stock's rise and bolstered investor confidence in the company's prospects.

What does this mean for traders?

It is evident that the launch of Gemini 3 represents a turning point in artificial intelligence development and positively impacted Alphabet's stock price. A similar situation may repeat in the future, and traders should closely monitor news from the tech world to respond promptly to market fluctuations.

This surge in interest in AI presents both short-term and long-term trading opportunities for shares of tech giants, as well as for investing in sector-specific ETFs and other derivative instruments. The increased volatility of Alphabet stock can be leveraged for speculative trades based on price rises or falls.

All the mentioned instruments, including Alphabet shares (GOOGL), are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To start profiting from the changes in leading global companies' stock prices and to seize the opportunities presented by technological breakthroughs, traders are encouraged to open a trading account with InstaForex. For added convenience, download the company's mobile app and trade anytime, anywhere.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crypto market crash not over. Bitcoin and Ethereum might fall deeper

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The cryptocurrency market crash is at full swing, showcasing the collapse of a substantial bubble in terms of volume. Just last month, I expressed concerns that the overvaluation and inflated market prices in the crypto industry had reached their peak. I suggested that the likelihood of a series of rate cuts in the US and growing demand for stocks—which, unlike cryptocurrencies, generate interest income—could lead to serious sell-offs and, in turn, a decline in demand for these assets.

Such a stunning rally could not last indefinitely, despite the active involvement of US President Donald Trump, who effectively stimulated demand for tokens, including his own. It is likely that profit-taking has begun in the market, which could result not just in a corrective decline followed by increased demand but in a crash that leads to a plateau at price levels significantly lower than those seen at the end of October.

The accelerating collapse is also occurring because there is growing uncertainty among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding further rate cuts, including the upcoming policy meeting in December. The lack of comprehensive statistical data on the national economy is frightening investors, compelling them to exercise caution and thereby reduce the number of open positions in the crypto market.

There are also reports from the market indicating that some US hedge funds are exiting the crypto market amid fading demand for risk.

What can we expect in the crypto market in the near future? I believe there is a high likelihood that sell-offs will continue into next week. As long as uncertainty regarding rate cuts in the US looms over the market without comprehensive economic statistics, investors will shy away from risky operations, including trades in the cryptocurrency market.

Forecast of the day

Bitcoin Bitcoin is trading below the resistance level of 85,730.00, which further strengthens the bearish momentum from a technical standpoint. In this wave, a decline to 74,420.00 can be expected. The level for selling on a pullback may be around 83,160.00.

Ethereum The token is trading above the support level of 2,658.50, and breaching this level could enhance the bearish momentum. In this wave, a decline to 2,163.00 can be expected. The level for selling on a pullback may be around 2,615.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 21/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold, Oil, Ethereum and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, after five consecutive days of decline, the EUR/USD pair is stabilizing near the 1.1540 level amid a slight weakening of the U.S. dollar. The employment data released for September strengthens expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is now pricing in a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds rate. This is slightly higher than the 30% probability priced in by the markets yesterday.

In the U.S., NFP — the number of nonfarm payroll jobs created in September — increased by 119,000 compared with the revised August figure of +22,000 and the previously projected growth of 50,000. This result exceeded analysts' expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September from 4.3% in August. Average hourly earnings remained at 3.8% year-on-year, slightly above the market expectation of 3.7%.

The euro is holding its ground amid cautious views regarding the near-term outlook for the European Central Bank's monetary policy. It is assumed that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2026. Meanwhile, inflation remains near the 2% target, the economy shows stable growth, and unemployment remains at a record low level.

On Thursday, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf stated that the current monetary stance appears justified, and significant changes are unlikely unless substantial developments occur.

From a technical perspective, this week's decline below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart favors the bears. Oscillators on both the 4-hour and daily charts are in negative territory, confirming the weakness of the bulls. Nevertheless, if prices manage to overcome the 1.1540 level and then the 100-period SMA, the bulls may regain strength.

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EUR/USD Forecast on November 21, 2025

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair bounced from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1517 and turned in favor of the euro, while showing absolutely no interesting movements despite a strong news background. Today, the upward movement may continue toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1594. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1517 will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and continue decline toward the next 100.0% corrective level at 1.1392.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The latest upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" at the moment. Bullish traders have gone on the offensive, but their efforts are still insufficient to form a trend. To recognize the "bearish" trend as complete, the pair must rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive "bullish" waves.

On Thursday, the U.S. news background allowed traders to expect at least increased activity. However, by the end of the day, it was clear that the market had no desire to open trades and still doesn't. The labor market and unemployment reports can be interpreted in any way and colored however one wishes, but I cannot recall more contradictory data in a long time. Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded the forecast by 69,000, yet the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Payrolls exceeded expectations by a wide margin, but data for the previous two months were revised downward. In addition, traders understood from the outset that September's data was long outdated and that the Federal Reserve will base its December monetary policy decision on fresher information. Thus, the U.S. reports contradicted each other and carried little real significance.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair bounced from the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1649, turned in favor of the U.S. currency, and began a new downward move. A consolidation below 1.1538 allows us to expect continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1448. A consolidation above 1.1538 will favor the euro and some growth toward the next resistance level at 1.1649–1.1680. A "bullish" divergence in the CCI indicator increases the likelihood of an upward reversal.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been published for over a month. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, while short positions total 138,000 — essentially a twofold gap. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above, which reflect strong increases in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is only rising, while interest in the dollar is falling.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large traders had been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the key factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy. Despite signing several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to decline.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

• EU – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (08:30 UTC)
• EU – Germany Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC)
• EU – Germany Services PMI (08:30 UTC)
• EU – Manufacturing PMI (09:00 UTC)
• EU – Services PMI (09:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC)
• U.S. – Services PMI (14:45 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On November 20, the economic calendar contains eight medium-importance events. The news background may have only a moderate influence on market sentiment on Friday, but throughout the entire day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair was possible after closing below 1.1594 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1517. The target has been reached. New selling opportunities arise if the pair closes below 1.1517 with a target of 1.1392. Buying could be opened on a rebound from 1.1517 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1594. These trades can be held today.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 21, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rose toward the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3110, bounced off it, dropped slightly, and then resumed growth toward 1.3110. Today, another rebound from this level will again work in favor of the U.S. currency and a slight decline toward the 200.0% corrective level at 1.3024. A consolidation of the pair's rate above the 1.3110 level will return the pound into the sideways range of 1.3110–1.3186.

The wave situation remains "bearish." The latest upward wave failed to break the previous peak, while the most recent downward wave (completed) broke the previous low. Unfortunately for the pound, the news background has deteriorated recently, making it extremely difficult for the bulls to launch attacks. To complete the "bearish" trend, the price must rise above 1.3470 or form two consecutive "bullish" waves.

Yesterday, both the pound and the dollar had chances for growth. Everything depended not on U.S. statistics, but on how traders themselves would interpret it and whether they would take into account the blatantly outdated data. As yesterday showed, the market's reaction to the labor market and unemployment reports was fairly formal. Traders could not completely ignore the data, but their actions signaled that September's figures did not interest them much. The unemployment report came out worse than expected, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report was too contradictory. Thursday's general decline in the U.S. dollar was therefore logical overall. But will it continue on such shaky foundations? Let me remind you that in recent weeks a great deal of information from the UK has supported the bears more than the bulls. However, this information has already been priced in. Thus, expectations for yesterday's statistics were sky-high, but in reality traders drew no conclusions. We now await November labor market and unemployment data, as well as the FOMC decision in December.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline within a downward trend channel. If a new "bullish" trend is beginning now, we will gradually receive confirmation of it. I will start expecting a strong rise in the pound once the price closes above the channel. A consolidation below the 1.3044 corrective level will allow us to expect further decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2925. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bullish" during the most recent reporting week, but that reporting week was a month and a half ago. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The current gap between long and short positions is essentially the following: 85,000 versus 86,000. Bullish traders are again tipping the scales in their favor.

In my view, the pound still has downward potential, but with each new month the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. If previously traders were worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies—without understanding what consequences they might bring—now they may be worried about the results of those policies: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's confrontation with the Federal Reserve, which could cause the central bank to become "politically biased." Thus, the pound looks far less dangerous than the U.S. currency.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• UK – Manufacturing PMI (09:30 UTC)
• UK – Services PMI (09:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC)
• U.S. – Services PMI (14:45 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On November 21, the economic calendar contains five entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be modest but sustained throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today after a rebound from the 1.3110 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3024. Buying opportunities open if the price consolidates above the 1.3110 level with a target of 1.3186.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3247–1.3470 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Pound Fell Following a Drop in UK Retail Sales

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The British pound reacted with a sharp decline to news that UK retail sales in October fell much more than expected.

The report from the Office for National Statistics stated that the volume of goods sold online and in stores in the UK fell by 1.1% month-on-month after an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in September. This figure ended a five-month streak of consecutive growth and was significantly worse than economists' expected decline of 0.2%.

Economists attribute the drop in retail sales to several factors. First, inflation continues to put pressure on consumer spending. Second, interest rates remain high, increasing the cost of borrowing. Third, economic uncertainty caused by a budget shortfall of more than £30 billion is forcing consumers to be more cautious with their spending.

Ahead of Christmas, retailers will be hoping for an increase in sales. However, the economic outlook remains uncertain, and there is no guarantee that consumers will spend at previous levels. Many analysts forecast that UK retail sales will remain weak in the coming months.

The report supports the view that the economy is in a precarious position ahead of the budget that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present next week. After considering an income tax increase—which would break earlier commitments—the Chancellor intends instead to raise several other levies to fill the multibillion-pound hole in public finances.

"Monthly sales fell in October for the first time since May," said ONS Chief Economist Grant Fitzner. "Supermarkets, clothing stores, and online retailers all saw a decline in sales, with some retailers suggesting that consumers are delaying purchases until the November sales expected around Black Friday."

As noted above, the British pound reacted to all of this with a decline.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3100. Only then will it be possible to aim for 1.3130, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3160 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, the bears will attempt to regain control of 1.3065. If they manage to do so, a breakout of that range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD to the 1.3040 low, with prospects of reaching 1.3015.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to reclaim the 1.1541 level. Only then will it be possible to aim for a test of 1.1565. From there, the price could climb to 1.1585, but doing so without support from major market participants will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1610 high. In the event of a decline in the instrument, I expect major buyers to become active only around 1.1515. If no one shows up there, it would be preferable to wait for a renewal of the 1.1490 low or to open long positions from 1.1470.

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GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 21, 2025

.Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Friday, from the level of 1.3069 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving upward with the target of 1.3113 – the 14.6% pullback level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a downward pullback is possible with a target of 1.3098 – the 8-period EMA (thin blue line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volumes – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upwardOverall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario:From the level of 1.3069 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.3148 – a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a downward pullback movement is possible with a target of 1.3113 – the 14.6% pullback level (blue dashed line).

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EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 21, 2025

.Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Friday, from the level of 1.1527 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving upward with the target of 1.1556 – a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a pullback movement downward is possible with a target of 1.1534 – the 14.6% pullback level (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volumes – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario:Today, from the level of 1.1527 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving upward with a target of 1.1574 – the 23.6% pullback level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, a downward pullback movement is possible with a target of 1.1556 – the historical resistance level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market shifts: fear takes over after greed

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The S&P 500 started strong but ended weak. After a 1.9% surge at the beginning of the trading session, driven by the positive results from NVIDIA for the third quarter, the broad stock index quickly reversed direction and closed in the red, down 1.6%. The reasons behind such a dramatic rollercoaster remain unclear.

Dynamics of US Stock Indices

NVIDIA's revenue and profits are indeed impressive, but one company alone cannot carry the weight. Even this largest company in the world is supported by other players in the tech sector spending colossal amounts on artificial intelligence, yet their results leave much to be desired. The bubble of tech giants is the main concern for investors, according to a Bank of America survey.

Signs of its emergence pushed the VIX volatility index up by 10% at the end of the trading session and by 50% in November. Greed in the stock market has given way to fear, and with the earnings season coming to an end and a nearly bare calendar for fresh data, institutional investors are taking profits, resulting in the S&P 500's pullback. The decline in the broad stock index is further fueled by the closing of momentum trades and retail investors. According to JP Morgan, they became net sellers of American stocks last week, offloading $728 million.

Dynamics of CBOE VIX Fear Index

When everyone is selling, there's a great opportunity to buy at a lower price. Executives of publicly registered companies, or so-called insiders, have been purchasing shares of their own firms at the fastest pace since May over the past 30 days. These are long-term investors who are using the panic surrounding artificial intelligence to load up on undervalued stocks.

Despite the 5.5% pullback in the S&P 500 from record high levels, bulls remain optimistic. According to Citadel Securities, a healthy correction lays the groundwork for a recovery in the broad stock index. By 2025, thanks to high retail investor demand, strong results from NVIDIA, and seasonal factors, it is expected to rise to 7,000.

However, such statements currently seem unlikely. Bears find reasons to sell not only due to fear of an AI bubble or the Fed's reluctance to lower rates but also because of the rout in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin has long been perceived as a canary in the coal mine. Its decline serves as a reason to sell off the entire class of risky assets, including American stocks.

Technically, an Expanding Wedge pattern was formed on the daily chart of the S&P 500. Upward corrections should be used to build short positions opened below the fair value of 6,740. Target levels are set at 6,400 and 6,255.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin drops into panic and liquidation territory

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Bitcoin's fall below the $90,000 mark did not trigger active buying, and by the end of today's Asian session, the leading cryptocurrency reached a low around $85,500, where it again failed to attract significant purchases from major players.

Several experts note that BTC has fallen below the average cost of purchases for institutional investors in spot BTC ETFs, indicating the onset of a panic and liquidation season. The losses incurred by buyers exceeding $1 billion in the market just yesterday speaks volumes. Institutional investors, previously seen as guarantors of stability and long-term growth, are now also susceptible to fear and mass sell-offs. Falling below their average purchase price could trigger a chain reaction where each new low sparks a wave of liquidations, worsening the situation and dragging BTC into a downward spiral.

However, it is important to remember that the crypto market has always been characterized by its volatility and unpredictability. While the current decline can be painful, it also presents opportunities for new players and strategic investors ready to capitalize on the situation and acquire assets at attractive prices.

The situation with BTC serves as both a warning signal and a chance for reevaluating strategies. The market demands flexibility, adaptability, and the ability to navigate a dynamically changing environment. Only those willing to learn from their mistakes and respond quickly to new challenges will survive and thrive in this era of crypto turbulence.

After reports of renewed capital inflows into the BlackRock spot BTC ETF on Wednesday, record outflows were again recorded yesterday. This suggests that the market remains under stress, exacerbated by the exodus of capital from the spot ETFs that were previously holding everything together. This dramatic shift in sentiment highlights the fragility of faith in cryptocurrency assets, even when backed by major institutional players. The outflow of capital, surpassing previous records, has essentially pulled the rug out from under the bulls, leaving them confused and disheartened. The capital flight from these funds puts additional pressure on BTC and other cryptocurrencies, creating a vicious cycle where falling prices provoke further sell-offs.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a recovery to the $86,500 level, which opens a direct path to $89,200, and from there it is only a short step to $92,900. The furthest target is around $95,500; surpassing this level would indicate attempts at a return to a bull market. Should Bitcoin decline, buyer interest is anticipated at the $83,900 level. A drop below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $81,200, with the most distant target at $78,200.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $2,924 level opens the path to $3,068. The furthest objective is around $3,193; breaking past this level would signify a strengthening of bullish market sentiment and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at the $2,797 level. A move below this area could swiftly bring ETH down to around $2,662, with the most distant support at $2,524.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 21: S&P 500 and NASDAQ slump

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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 1.56%, while the Nasdaq 100 plummeted by 2.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.84%.

The indices are poised for their worst week in seven months, as concerns regarding high valuations and the profitability of large investments in artificial intelligence compel investors to pull back from risky assets. The MSCI All Country World Index has dropped by 3% this week, putting it on track for its sharpest weekly decline since April 4, when President Donald Trump's tariffs shook the markets. Asian indices also fell by 1.7%, nearing their largest weekly drop since April. Bitcoin traded below $86,000.

Market sentiment has noticeably deteriorated, as heavy clouds of pessimism have overshadowed the horizon of optimism. Investors, who previously eagerly bought shares of tech giants heavily investing in AI development and implementation, are now questioning whether the price for this promising yet still not fully understood technology is too high. It is clear that NVIDIA's report did not reassure traders, who returned to aggressive selling in the tech sector. High interest rates in the US and inflation concerns are also weighing on the market. Investors fear that elevated borrowing costs could slow economic growth and reduce corporate profitability. In this environment, they prefer to reduce their positions in riskier assets like stocks and move into more conservative instruments, such as bonds. Currently, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has risen by one basis point to 4.09%.

"The market has been under pressure this week as investor sentiment cooled on mounting questions around the sustainability of the AI boom," Federated Hermes Ltd stated. Although volatility has increased, most analysts view the pullback as a correction rather than the start of a prolonged decline, the company added.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. noted that since 1957, there have been eight instances, including Thursday, when the S&P 500 opened up more than 1% but then reversed to close in the red. On the other hand, the average performance following these episodes was positive: gaining at least 2.3% the following day and week, and rising by 4.7% the next month.

Bitcoin also hit a fresh low, trading below $86,000.

Yesterday, the long-awaited government employment report was released, showing that job growth in the US accelerated in September, while the unemployment rate rose. The data indicates that the labor market was stabilizing before the government shutdown.

Regarding commodities, oil is expected to decline by more than 2% for the week, with Brent crude prices dropping below $63 per barrel.

In terms of the technical picture for the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,563. This would help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential move to a new level of $6,577. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,590, which would strengthen buyer positions. If there is a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,552. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,537 and open the way to $6,520.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 21. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 157.45 coincided with the MACD indicator already moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a good upward move.

After data showed the US unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September, the dollar weakened against the Japanese yen. Weaker-than-expected unemployment data contributed to the decline in the US currency's value, as market participants became cautious about the US economy's outlook. However, the non-farm payroll report mitigated the negative impact of the unemployment rate report. The number of new jobs created in September exceeded expectations, underscoring the labor market's resilience. Such a reaction in the currency market shows the complex relationship between different economic indicators and expectations regarding monetary policy. In the short term, the yen is likely to remain under pressure due to imminent decisions by the Japanese government regarding economic stimulus.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 157.33 (green line on the chart), with a target of 157.83 (thicker green line on the chart). At 157.83, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests at the price of 156.94 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 157.33 and 157.83.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 156.94 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 156.50, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests at the price of 157.33 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 156.94 and 156.50.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 21. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3089 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and leading to a rise near the target level of 1.3118.

The pound reacted positively to news that the US unemployment rate rose. Weaker-than-expected unemployment data initially pressured the US dollar, as investors became more cautious about the US economic outlook. The rise in unemployment hints at a potential slowdown in economic growth, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its restrictive stance on interest rates. However, the non-farm payroll report overshadowed the negative unemployment data. The number of new jobs created in September exceeded economists' forecasts by more than double, indicating that the labor market remains resilient. In the short term, the pound is likely to remain sensitive to economic news from both the US and the UK.

This morning will begin with information on retail sales in the United Kingdom and will conclude with the release of PMI indices for manufacturing, services, and the composite PMI index for the UK. The speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill is likely to be less significant compared to the data that often shapes market sentiment. Investors are particularly attentive to retail sales statistics, viewing them as an indicator of consumer spending, which is especially important amid current inflation. An increase in retail sales would be a reassuring signal reflecting the stability of the British economy, while a decline could exacerbate concerns and negatively impact the exchange rate of the British pound.

The PMI indices will provide a more comprehensive picture of the state of both the industrial and service sectors. The composite PMI index, which combines information from these two sectors, will be a key indicator of the overall economic well-being of the UK. A value above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a value below 50 signals contraction.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3105 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.3133 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3133, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). I can expect the pound to grow only with very good data today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if two consecutive tests at 1.3084 occur, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.3105 and 1.3133.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it reaches 1.3084 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3057 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move from the level). Pound sellers will show strength in the case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests at 1.3105 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.3084 and 1.3057.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 21. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1521 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair only fell by 10 pips.

Demand for the euro returned, while the dollar plummeted after news that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September. Job loss, wage reductions, and loss of health insurance all significantly impact consumer purchasing power and, consequently, slow economic growth. Therefore, it is not surprising that average hourly earnings are also declining. Now, the Federal Reserve faces a tough decision, as there will be no new labor market data before the December interest rate decision.

In the first half of the day, data on the manufacturing PMI index for the Eurozone, the services PMI index, and the composite PMI index are expected. Shortly afterward, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech. The PMI index, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a leading indicator of the region's economic health. A drop in the index below the 50 mark signals a contraction in business activity, while exceeding this mark indicates growth. If the data exceed economists' forecasts, the euro could see growth at the end of the week. Lagarde's speech is unlikely to have a significant impact on market sentiment; however, traders will analyze her words carefully in an attempt to identify hints of possible changes in monetary policy in the future.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I will consider buying the euro when the price reaches around 1.1547 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1571. At 1.1571, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. I can expect growth in the euro only after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests at 1.1532 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposing levels of 1.1547 and 1.1571.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1532 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1511, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests at 1.1547 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1532 and 1.1511.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on November 21

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Bitcoin fell below $86,000 yesterday, and it still seems far from the limit. Ethereum also dropped to around $2,800 and shows no signs of a significant upward trend.

Meanwhile, panic continues in the cryptocurrency market, which is only being exacerbated by active selling in the US stock market, and discussions about where the bottom of this cycle will be are increasing.

Another liquidation of buyers totaling nearly $1 billion vividly characterizes the current market situation. The fact that Bitcoin will have difficulty returning to the $100,000 level indicates that the bullish cycle, which peaked in early autumn last year, is over. Many experts suggest the current decline could reach $56,000. However, given the significant players involved in the market, it is unlikely that we will see such a deep correction. Levels around $75,000 to $70,000 will become reality. Their renewal could happen as early as mid-December, provided that the Federal Reserve abandons further plans to lower rates and stimulate the economy.

It is essential to understand that any forecasts, even the most well-founded, can be adjusted due to unforeseen events or abrupt changes in investor sentiment. Regulation of cryptocurrencies, geopolitical tensions, technological breakthroughs, or large-scale exchange hacks can all significantly impact the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, despite pessimistic expectations for a recovery by mid-December, investors should exercise caution and avoid making impulsive decisions. Diversifying the portfolio, moderate use of leverage, and constant monitoring of news and analytics are key factors for successful trading in the cryptocurrency market.

Regarding the intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant drops in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating continued bullish market development in the medium term, which has not disappeared.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches an entry point around $86,500, with a target of $88,300. Around $88,300, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $85,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward levels of $86,500 and $88,300.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today when it reaches an entry point around $85,200, aiming for a decline to $83,300. Near $83,300, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $86,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward levels of $85,200 and $83,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches an entry point around $2,821, with a target of $2,891. Around $2,891, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,765 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward levels of $2,821 and $2,891.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today when it reaches an entry point around $2,765, aiming for a decline to the level of $2,702. Near $2,702, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,821 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward levels of $2,765 and $2,702.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 21. Pound Buyers Attempting to Return

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Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3073 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.3073 led to a sell entry for the pound, resulting in only a 15-pip move down. In the second half of the day, active bearish actions around 1.3100 allowed for entering short positions on the pound, moving down to the area of 1.3073.

For opening long positions in GBP/USD, the following is required:

The pound rose on news that the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September; however, the bullish momentum was offset by a positive report on the rise in non-farm employment. Today, many important reports are expected in the first half of the day. It will start with the volume of retail sales in the UK and conclude with reports on the PMI indices for the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the UK composite PMI index. The speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill will take a back seat. If the pair declines after weak data—especially in the services sector—only the formation of a false breakout around the support level of 1.3069 will provide an opportunity to open long positions with a target for the pair to rise to resistance at 1.3100, which was not achieved yesterday. A breakthrough and a retest from top to bottom of this range will increase the chances of strengthening GBP/USD, leading to the triggering of stop orders from sellers and providing a suitable entry point for long positions with a potential to reach 1.3126. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3152, where I plan to take profit. If GBP/USD declines and buyers do not step in at 1.3069, pressure on the pair will increase, pushing it toward the next support at 1.3038. Only a false breakout there will be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.3013, targeting a 30-35-pip intraday correction.

For opening short positions in GBP/USD, the following is required:

Sellers made their presence felt yesterday, but after the weak US data, pressure on the pound decreased. Today, bears need to show themselves around the nearest resistance at 1.3100; if they miss it, they could lose control of the market. A false breakout there will be enough to sell the pound with a target for a decline to support at 1.3069, where moving averages are in favor of bulls. A breakthrough and a retest from the bottom to the top of this range will deal a larger blow to buyers' positions, triggering stop orders and opening the path to 1.3038. The furthest target will be the 1.3013 area, where I will take profit. If GBP/USD moves higher and there is no activity at 1.3100, buyers could push it higher, potentially toward 1.3126. I also plan to open short positions there only on a false breakout. In the absence of downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3152, but only with the expectation of a 30-35 pip intraday downward correction in the pair.

Recommended for Review:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders is not being published. The last relevant data is only as of September 23.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 23, there was a decrease in short positions and an increase in long positions. Pressure on the dollar persists, especially after the recent data, which is likely to force the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's policy remains cautious, indicating its clear plans to further combat inflation, though this has not given much confidence to pound buyers lately. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be determined by new fundamental data. The latest COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions increased by 3,704 to 84,500, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 912 to 86,464. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 627.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is occurring slightly above the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating the pound's attempt to return to growth.

Note: The periods and prices of moving averages are viewed by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3050 will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 50. Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 30. Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 21. The Labor Market in the US Leaves Questions

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Yesterday, several suitable entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level at 1.1521 and planned to make entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout at 1.1521 led to a sell entry for the euro, but after a 10-pip decline, the pressure on the pair eased. In the second half of the day, long positions on the false breakout at 1.1513 led to an increase of more than 40 pips in the pair.

For opening long positions in EUR/USD, the following is required:

The US unemployment rate rose again in September to 4.4%, significantly weakening the US dollar and increasing the likelihood of US interest rate cuts. This led to a momentary increase in the euro; however, breaking the bearish market observed this week has not yet been achieved. In the first half of the day, data on the manufacturing PMI index for the Eurozone, the services PMI index, and the composite PMI index are expected. Shortly thereafter, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech. Weak reports, especially in the manufacturing sector, could lead to a decline in the euro, which could be exploited. I expect the first signs of buyers only around the support level of 1.1513, formed at the end of yesterday. If a false breakout forms there, it will provide an entry point for long positions with a target to recover the pair to the resistance of 1.1541, below which trading is currently occurring. A breakthrough and a retest of this range will confirm the right actions to buy the euro, with the expectation of a larger surge in the pair toward 1.1564. The furthest target will be last week's high of 1.1584, where I will take profit. Testing this level will halt the bearish market's development. If the EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.1513, pressure on the pair will only increase by the end of the week. Sellers will likely reach the next interesting level of 1.1492. Only the formation of a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for buying the euro. Long positions will be immediately opened on the rebound from 1.1472 with a target of an upward correction of 30-35 pips intraday.

For opening short positions in EUR/USD, the following is required:

Sellers did everything yesterday to prevent the pair from rising above 1.1541. This level is emphasized in the first half of the day today. If the euro rallies following the Eurozone data, the bears will aim to defend the 1.1541 resistance. A false breakout there will provide an entry point for short positions with a target to move the pair toward support at 1.1513. A breakthrough and consolidation below this range, as well as a retest from below, will become another suitable option for opening short positions in the area of 1.1492, which will reinforce the bearish trend. The furthest target will be the 1.1472 area, where I will take profit. If the EUR/USD moves higher and there are no active bearish actions around 1.1541, buyers will have a good opportunity by the end of the week. In this case, short positions are best delayed until the larger level of 1.1564. Selling will occur only after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1584 with a target for a downward correction of 30-35 pips.

Recommended for Review:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders is not being published. The last relevant data is only from September 23.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 23, there was an increase in short positions and a decrease in long positions. Expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continue to pressure the US dollar. However, the number of euro buyers is not increasing, as political problems in France and the risks of a new inflation rise force the ECB to act much more cautiously, slowing down economic growth. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 789 to 252,472, while short non-commercial positions increased by 2,625 to 138,625. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 873.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is occurring around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The periods and prices of moving averages are viewed by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1513 will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 50. Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 30. Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 21

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The labor market disappointed the US dollar yesterday, which sharply declined against the euro and the British pound.

As the data showed, the US unemployment rate rose again in September to 4.4%, significantly weakening the US dollar. The rise in unemployment is not just a statistic; it reflects the real difficulties faced by millions of American families. Layoffs, salary reductions, and loss of health insurance all exert tremendous pressure on consumer spending and, consequently, on economic growth.

Now, the central bank faces a difficult dilemma: support the weakening economy by lowering interest rates or keep inflation under control by maintaining the current rates. Lowering interest rates would undoubtedly make loans more accessible, stimulating investments and consumer spending. However, this could also lead to further weakening of the dollar and possibly a rise in inflation.

In the first half of the day today, data on the manufacturing PMI index for the Eurozone, the services PMI index, and the composite PMI index are expected. Shortly afterward, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech. These events will undoubtedly be crucial for determining the short-term dynamics of the euro. The PMI index, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a leading indicator of the economic health of the region. Its values reflect the sentiment of key players in the economy—purchasing managers—and provide valuable information about the current state of affairs in the manufacturing and service sectors. A drop in the index below 50 signals a contraction in business activity, while exceeding this level indicates growth. Lagarde's speech, on the other hand, will provide a unique opportunity to receive direct comments from the ECB's head on the current economic situation and the central bank's future plans. However, considering that the central bank does not intend to change its monetary policy in the near future, Lagarde's statements are unlikely to significantly influence market sentiment.

As for the pound, several important reports are also expected in the first half of the day. The market eagerly awaits retail sales data, which serves as an initial signal of consumer demand. This is particularly relevant in the context of current inflation and concerns about a potential economic slowdown. The PMI indices, in turn, will provide a broader picture of the state of affairs in the manufacturing and services sectors. The composite PMI index, which combines data from these two sectors, will be a key indicator of the UK's overall economic health.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly higher or lower than economists' forecasts, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1541, which may lead to an increase in the euro toward 1.1564 and 1.1595.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1530, which may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1500 and 1.1480.

For GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3100, which may lead to an increase in the pound toward 1.3125 and 1.3165.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3085, which may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3055 and 1.3030.

For USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 157.30, which may lead to a dollar increase toward 157.70 and 158.15.
• Sell on a breakout below 157.05, which may lead to a sell-off of the dollar toward 156.67 and 156.23.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For EUR/USD Pair

• Look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.1546 and a return below this level.
• Look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.1531 and a return to this level.

For GBP/USD Pair

• Look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.3102 and a return below this level.
• Look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.3071 and a return to this level.

For AUD/USD Pair

• Look for sales after a failed breakout above 0.6465 and a return below this level.
• Look for purchases after a failed breakout below 0.6440 and a return to this level.

For USD/CAD Pair

• Look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.4099 and a return below this level.
• Look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.4079 and a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.