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Bitcoin technical worries due to bearish divergence signs

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Bitcoin is trading very close to an 8 month high. Price has reversed its trend back in March and since then it is making higher highs and higher lows. Trend remains bullish but we now observe some warning signs by the Daily RSI.

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Red lines - bearish divergence

Short-term resistance is at recent highs at 9070$ while support is found at 7400$. The Daily RSI as shown above is showing some bearish divergence signs. This is a warning and not a reversal signal. If price breaks below 7400$ we then have confirmation of the trend reversal and price should at least test the 38% Fibonacci retracement level at 6800$. If the entire leg up from 3130$ is complete at 9070$, we could even see a deeper pull back towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However it is too early to talk about this scenario. There are still hopes from bulls that a new higher high could be made. The 8030-7850$ area is also important short-term support. Breaking below it will increase the chances of breaking below 7400$. As long as price is above this level we could see new higher highs above 9070$.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD fears of a false breakout

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EURUSD was expected to pull back towards 1.1250-1.1230 area for a back test of the break out. The wedge break out now seems like a fake one unless we see a sharp reversal to the upside starting on Monday.

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Red lines - wedge pattern

Green rectangle - support area

EURUSD has broken back inside the wedge pattern and below my green support area. Price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the rise from 1.1107 to 1.1347. This is the last stand for bulls. The 61.8% Fibonacci level if it holds, should provide the basis for the next leg higher that should push price towards 1.17. Breaking below this level and staying below 1.1240-1.1260 will increase the chances of moving lower below 1.12 and will put the 1.11 low in danger. Bulls need to step in now and support price. Otherwise bears will take control of the trend once again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold ends the week with a bearish reversal signal

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Gold price made new higher highs this week above $1,350, but at the last day of the week bulls received a bearish surprise by the market. A bearish reversal candlestick pattern in the daily chart implies that Gold has topped.

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Blue line - major resistance trend line

Green line - major support trend line

Gold price has reached the much anticipated $1,350-60 resistance area we have been calling for since breaking above $1,300. Friday's daily candlestick is a shooting star pattern. This is a bearish reversal pattern that implies that an important top is in and we should see Gold price pull back. Short-term support is found at $1,320. Breaking it will confirm the reversal and open the way for a move towards $1,300 if not lower. Gold price has also shown bearish divergence signs in the RSI as well. We have turned bearish Gold as the downside potential is bigger than continuing much higher.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin analysis for June, 14.2019

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BTC has been trading upwards. We noticed that was the up breakout of the 9-day base in the background, which is sign that buyers are in control. Our advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips.

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Pink rectangle – Resistance $8.786

White lines – top and bottom of the sideways trading range

BTC did break the 9-day base in the background and on that way confirmed the upward momentum.. According to the daily time-frame, BTC is trading one-timeframe higher, which is sign of the upward trend. We noticed that BTC did trade sideways near our Keltner channel middle line and that potential ABC down downward correction did complete in the background. Important support level is found at $8.100. As long as the BTC is trading above $8.100, ur advice is to watch for buying opportunities on the dips with the target at $8.786. In case of the breakout of $8.786, next upward target will be set at the price of $9.068.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD analysis for June 14,.2019

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GBP/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.1615 with the strong downward momentum. We still expect more downside to come.

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Blue rectangle – support became resistance (1.2653)

Gray rectangle- horizontal support (1.2562)

Key support at the price of 1.2653 is broken and now it became important resistance. The breakout happened with the good new momentum low on the MACD oscillator, which is great sign for further downside. As long as the GBP is trading below the 1.2653 we will watch only for selling opportunities. The important support is set at the price of 1.2562, this level can be great level to exit your short position if you are swing trader. So far, we didn't find any signs of reversal yet, which makes GBP safe for selling on rallies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD analysis for June 14,2019

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EUR/USD has been trading downwards today as we predicted yesterday. The price tested the level of 1.12318. Strong downward movement is present and our advice is to watch for any rally for selling opportunities.

Blue rectangle - horizontal support 1 (1.1210)

Pink rectangle- horizontal support 2 (1.1120)

White line – Broken support trendline

Blue lines – Broken upward channel in the background

Strong downward momentum today is the result of the broken important support from yesterday. MACD oscillator is showing us new momentum down, which is sign that buying looks extremely risky today. Downward targets are set at the price of 1.1210 and 1.1120. Resistance levels are set at the price of 1.1269 and 1.1288.We found no signs of any reversal yet, so it is safe to watch for selling opportunities on the rallies.,The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The dollar is back in the game

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Markets are windy. Their mood changes every day. Is it any wonder that just as at the end of the first week of June, after disappointing statistics on US employment, investors dropped the US dollar, and at the end of the second week of summer, they bought it. The EUR/USD bulls understand that they have gone too far. First, a weak currency, such as the euro, cannot quickly restore the upward trend, and even in conditions when the trade war is not over. Secondly, CME derivatives look too self-confident about reducing the federal funds rate by 50 bp until the end of 2019. And the Fed can punish overconfidence.

Experts reminded the market that the Fed will not hurry with the adjustment of monetary policy. According to the consensus estimate of more than 100 Reuters respondents, the rate increase before the third quarter of 2020 should not be expected. Experts interviewed by the Wall Street Journal believe that by the end of this year, it will be at the level of 2.12% and by the end of next year – by 1.96%. That is, over the next 18 months, the rate will be reduced only by 25-50 bp. If the Fed does not signal monetary expansion in July, the US dollar is able to continue to grow.

No matter how much Donald Trump and his team would like the Central Bank to weaken its monetary policy, the Fed will act on the circumstances. Despite the disappointing statistics on American employment in May, the labor market still looks monolithic, and inflation is not going to go far from the target of 2%. GDP in the second quarter may slow down to 1.5-2% q/q, but we are talking about the return of the economy from abnormally high growth rates of almost 3% to normal. And in such circumstances, it is not necessary to hurry with the rate reduction.

The dynamics of the US inflation

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The euro has made it clear that it has climbed too high. After Mario Draghi talked about the revival of the European QE, the governors of the banks of Finland and France Olli Rehn and Francois Villeroy de Galhau. Inflation expectations fell to record low values, and against this background, the ECB prefers to use "dovish" rhetoric. Another thing is that the potential for rate cuts and the list of suitable for the quantitative easing program are limited. However, this is unlikely to stop the regulator.

The key events of the week to June 21 are the FOMC meeting and the release of the eurozone business activity data for June (flash estimate). If purchasing managers are not afraid of the escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China, the PMI can go up, pulling EUR/USD. However, for the beginning, "bulls" need to pass the test of the Fed meeting. Caution Central Bank will make life easier for fans of the US dollar.

Technically, after reaching the target of 113% on the pattern "Shark" followed by a natural rollback in the direction of 38.2% and 50% of the CD wave in the transformation of "Shark" in 5-0. The retreat from support at 1.1225-1.123 will allow the bulls to go into a counterattack. On the contrary, the return of EUR/USD to the levels of 1.116 and 1.113 is a clear "bearish" signal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BITCOIN trading at near $8500. Price to reach $9,000 again? June 14, 2019

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Bitcoin has been quite non-volatile and impressive with the recent bullish momentum which pushed the price to reach $8,400-8,500. After the huge drastic fall from $9,000, such a rapid rally indicates strength of buyers.

Bitcoin and the overall cryptocurrency market have been able to find some stability after the latest surge which may be a bullish sign. It points to the possibility that BTC price is on track for news highs in the near future. The latest surge appears to be bulls' latest attempt to maintain the upward momentum it has gained over the past couple of months. Investors are betting on further gains in the short term.

Total capitalization of the crypto market is currently marginally higher than this time yesterday by $262 billion. Markets are still range bound. It is unlikely to see any bigger moves until Bitcoin breaks out. From the technical viewpooint, BTC price has maintained a proper 20 EMA and bullish Trend Line carries along the way since the bounce from $7,500 with a daily close.

The price consolidated earlier and made some false breaks along the way. However, a break above $8,000 provided information about the bullish bias in the market. The price is currently at the verge of breaking above $8,500 with a daily close. If it happens during the weekend, the price is expected to reach $9,000 next week with strong impulsive bullish momentum building up for the target towards $10,000 area.

SUPPORT: 7,500, 7,800, 8,000

RESISTANCE: 8,400, 8,500, 9,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Fed or the ECB: who will lead the monetary policy easing race?

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The two largest regulators of the world have practically abandoned their old rhetoric and openly declare the prospects for lowering interest rates and easing the monetary rate.

At the end of the May meeting, the US Central Bank kept the federal funds rate in the range of 2.25% to 2.5% per annum.

At the next meeting, which will be held next week, investors are waiting for the Fed to give a clearer signal of readiness for a "soft" policy.

A consensus forecast of analysts polled recently by The Wall Street Journal suggests a reduction in interest rates from the Fed to 2.12% by the end of 2019 and to 1.96% by the end of 2020. Thus, we are talking about a single act of monetary expansion, both in the current and in the following years.

The derivatives market now estimates the likelihood of a rate cut at 64% in July.

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According to a number of experts, the Fed has no weighty reasons for easing the policy and the regulator can take a pause until autumn.

By this time, the financial results of American companies for the second quarter will already be known and it will be possible to understand how the trade frictions of the United States and China have influenced business sentiment in the third quarter.

"I believe that the Fed will keep the rate unchanged until September, and then lower it by 0.25% to signal a willingness and desire to act," said Amy Cru Catts, an economist at AC Cutts & Associates.

Gregory Daco of Oxford Economics adheres to a similar point of view.

"Despite the fact that the US economy is in good condition, concerns about the deteriorating situation in the global industry, the US housing market, as well as the possible consequences of trade conflicts, speak in favor of lowering the Fed rate this fall," he said.

Meanwhile, some analysts believe that the longer the Fed will "sit on the sidelines,", the more it will have to loosen monetary policy in the future.

"The longer the Fed waits, the more it will have to lower the rate," said Robert Fry, an economist at Robert Fry Economics LLC. He predicts that the regulator will cut the rate twice this year and leave it unchanged in the next.

Against the background of heightened expectations that the US Central Bank will ease monetary policy in the coming months, the USD index fell to two-month lows. But then, it managed to play some losses since the main competitors of the greenback, such as the euro and the pound have their own problems.

Although at the moment, the market regards easing of the monetary policy of the Fed as a predetermined decision. It is believed that the dollar will remain a highly profitable currency even after one or two cuts in the US interest rate.

Following the Fed, the ECB may join the easing race in monetary policy.

Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi gave the markets a fairly transparent hint of willingness to use additional incentives if the deterioration of the global economy and political uncertainty in the world continued to restrain GDP growth and inflation in the region.

"The ECB, having pumped nearly € 4 trillion into the markets in the course of two QE rounds, may not stop there. In addition, the Financial Institute is concerned about the potential strengthening of the euro against the dollar due to the likely reduction in interest rates in the United States and is considering the possibility of resuming the asset-buying program. However, such a scenario does not yet meet the necessary support in the leadership of the Central Bank, "Reuters reported, citing two sources close to the regulator.

"I will give you five reasons why the ECB can lower the rate," one source said and repeated the words "euro rate" five times.

According to another source, the Central Bank can still tolerate the euro at $1.15, but a mark of $1.20 will become a "pain threshold" for the eurozone economy, according to the regulator.

Thus, interesting events may unfold in the coming months. The Fed will hold a regular meeting very soon and then the ECB will have to give its word.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on June 14

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Fundamental component

The main influence on the possibility of the movement today may have a block of statistics from the United States, which is expected at 19:30 UTC+0. In addition, following the publication of economic indicators will make the head of the Bank of England (19:55 UTC+0), which may also have some effect on market preferences.

EUR / USD pair

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The pair continues to be in the zone of influence at strong levels of 1.1280-84 (weekly Fib Kijun + daily Senkou Span B). In addition, the daily short-term trend has risen to 1.1275, which helps players on the rise today. The formation of a rebound in this area will increase the chances of players to increase to return to resistance, while bullish interests will be directed to consistently overcome 1.1338 (weekly Kijun) - 1.1366 (monthly Tenkan) - 1.1393 (weekly Fibo Kijun). On the other hand, a decrease under the current support and consolidation in the day cloud will allow players to step up their moods by forming shortcuts from the tested resistances of weekly Kijun and monthly Tenkan. In this case, the nearest support will be 1.1256 (daily Fib Kijun) and 1.1228 (weekly Tenkan + daily Kijun).

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The unresolved issue in the senior halts is supported by technical tools on H1. Indicators now prefer players to rise, who are actively supporting purchases, but key levels retain an initial advantage over the opponent, which forms resistance. Upward players can make a difference by rising and entrenched above 1.1283 (central Pivot day level) - 1.1306 (weekly long-term trend). An update of yesterday's low will continue the downward trend of H1. Downward orientations are located today on the support of the classic Pivot levels at 1.1261 - 1.1247 - 1.1225.

GBP / USD pair

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Over the past day, the players to fall almost did not change the situation, remaining in the zone of attraction of the daily short-term trend. In the meantime, this level has slightly changed its location. Due to a long stay in the correction zone, Tenkan is preparing the conditions for changing the daily cross of Ichimoku. In the case of continued decline, the support of 1.2600 (psychological level) and 1.2558 (minimum extremum) is most important now as noted earlier.

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Short-cut players enjoy the advantage and support of technical tools on H1. If it were not for the influence and attraction of the daily short-term trend, which in the current situation strengthens today's support of the S1 classic Pivot-levels at 1.2652. Then, the decline will most likely continue. The following downward orientations are S2 (1.2633) and S3 (1.2606). Fixing above the zone of key resistance (H1) at 1.2679 (central Pivot-day level) - 1.2701 (weekly long-term trend) will affect the current balance of forces and create prerequisites for further strengthening of bullish moods.

EUR / USD and GBP / USD divergence (daily timeframe)

No new divergences.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points ( classic ), Moving Average (120)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for May 14, 2019

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 0.6571. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6571 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor resistance today. Since the trend is below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. However, the resistance is seen at the level of 0.6571. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Therefore, resistance will be found at the level of 0.6571 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6500. If the trend breaks the first supprt at 0.6500, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the levels 0.6469 and 0.6424.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD for June 14, 2019

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.2905. This week, the pair rose from the level of 1.2905 to a top around 1.2800 and it set around the spot of 1.2800. The first resistance level is seen at 1.2905 followed by 1.2963 , while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2798 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2700 and 1.2610; so we expect a range of 90 pips in coming hours. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first support level at 1.2662, we should see the pair climbing towards the double bottom (1.2436) to test it later. Therefore, sell below the level of 1.2800 with the first target at 1.2610 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2436. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.2436 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double bottom. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the resistance level of 1.2905, then the stop loss should be placet at 1.2930.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for May 14, 2019

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Overview:

The EUR/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 1.1301 and 1.1259. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. The major support is seen at the level of 1.1259, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 1.1259 and 1.1301. The EUR/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 1.1259 towards thae first resistance level of 1.1348 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.1348 and further to the level of 1.1389. The level of 1.1389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.1348. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 1.1301 and 1.1259, this scenario may be invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for May 14, 2019

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Overview:

The USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.9947. The pair dropped from the level of 0.9947 to the bottom around 0.9912. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9947 followed by 1.0003, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9853. According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9947 and 0.9853; for that we expect a range of 94 pips. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9947, the market will decline further to 0.9853. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9853 with a view to test the second support. However, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.0003 (major resistance), then this scenario may become invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CHF: USD to regain momentum above 0.9950? June 14, 2019

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USD/CHF has been consolidating at near the 0.9950 resistance area after several the price has been rejected off the area a few times.

The Swiss National Bank kept the ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged. The policy update was revealed yesterday in the Monetary Policy Assessment and Press Conference. The officials took such decision on the back of rising trade tensions between the US and China. They expressed concerns that the safe-haven CHF remains overvalued. The SNB kept the interest rate unchanged at the negative territory as the foreign exchange market is defined as fragile.

The SNB policy rate replaces the target range for the three-month Libor used previously, and currently stands at -0.75%. This move will seek to keep the secured short-term CHF forex rates close to the SNB policy rate. Interest rates have remained unchanged for 4.5 years. Most of the analysts say they expect no change to the sight deposit rates until 2021 at the earliest.

On the other hand, investors are betting on the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July. Some experts assess a 65% chance that the US central bank will cut rates twice this year. Moreover, US President Donald Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve promped the central bank to revise its rhetoric. Besides, ongoing uncertainty in the global trade due to tariff threats makes the US economic outlook harder than ever to predict. The surprise announcement in early May of higher tariffs on China and a threat of higher levies on Mexican imports added to the minefield the Fed must now navigate.

Today US Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to have a rebound to 0.7% from the previous negative value of -0.2% and Core Retail Sales could have increased to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1%.

To sum up, USD maintains momentum ahead of optimistic economic reports yet to be published. On the other hand, market sentiment on CHF is neutral in light of the latest policy update from the SNB.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading below 0.9950 area with a daily close for certain period. The price is at the verge of breaking above the area. So, the price is expected to extend a climb with a target towards 1.0050. As the price remains above 0.9850 area with a daily close amid the current bullish momentum, it will reinforce the bullish bias for the short term.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

A review of EUR / USD and GBP / USD pairs on 06/14/2019: Exit to the finish line

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As often the case, the statistics yesterday came out not quite as expected both in Europe and in the United States. In particular, the industrial production of the Old World decreased by 0.7% instead of 0.6% according to the updated data. It slowed down its declin as much as 0.4%not to 0.5%. Of course, the picture is sad but the patient more and more often shows signs of life, but from the United States continue to receive depressing news on the labor market. The total number of applications for unemployment benefits rose by 5 thousand. Although the figure looks incredibly ridiculous, they still expected a decrease of 16 thousand. In other words, everything went completely in the wrong direction, especially funny it looks when viewed in detail. Thus, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits increased by 3 thousand, instead of decreasing by the same 3 thousand.

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However, the dollar still strengthened in relation to the single European currency and pound, although symbolically speaking. This is largely due to the release of the next series of the most cash series of modernity -Brexit. This time, the first round of the most democratic elections of the prime minister in the world took place in London, where as many as 312 people decided who would lead the government of the United Kingdom. Among them, 114 fulfilled the order, sorry for the reservation on Freud followed the advice of my overlord, who once again I apologize for the reservation, my closest ally, that is, Donald Trump and voted for Boris Johnson. As you know, Boris himself advocates an immediate divorce from Europe and without any agreements and penalties. Of course, this is a no. He is not averse to signing some kind of agreement, but only such which provides for payments from Europe in favor of the UK.

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Hence, it is clear to everyone that such an outcome is brought forward even more rapidly by the unregulated Brexit with all the unpredictable consequences that follow from it. Now, we are waiting for the second round, which is scheduled for June 18. Thus, we have time to replenish stocks of popcorn. In addition to Boris Johnson, other candidates including Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt, Minister for the Environment, Food and Agriculture Michael Gove, Former Minister for Brexit Affairs Dominique Raab, Interior Minister Sajid Javid, Minister for Health and Social Affairs Matt Hancock, and Minister for International Development Rory Stewart will take part in it. By the way, the advice of Donald Trump himself follows him well as.

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Today, the dollar can continue to strengthen, of course, if only macroeconomic statistics again fail to meet the expectations placed on it. It is projected that the growth rate of retail sales can accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4%, and industrial production from 0.9% to 2.5%.

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Thus, it is possible to wait for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1250.

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The pound will lead exactly the same way and it is expected to decline to 1.2625.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold to extend climb or correct again below $1,350? June 14, 2019

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Gold managed to maintain the bullish impulsive momentum that indicates a further bullish trend in place with a target towards $1,500.

Gold gained momentum on expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but gains were capped by a rebound in US stocks. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on June 19. However, markets believe in the likelihood of a rate cut before the end of the year due to easing inflation and rising trade tensions. Expectations of a rate cut rose after the US Labor Department reported that the number applications for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly. Besides, investors are discouraged by twists in the US-China trade talks which make the trade deal more distant.

Concerns about global economic growth and the growing likelihood of the rate cut support the gold market. Amid global unvertainty, investors are looking for a shelter, in particular gold as the most popular safe haven asset. Though gold is winning favor with investors at present, the previous metal could make some correctional delcines in the short term.

Meanwhile, gold is expected to pull back and consolidate below $1,350. Mean Reversion may be observed towards $1,300 again as the dynamic level of 20 EMA is quite far from the current price area. The price recently formed Bearish Divergence pushing towards $1,350 that also indicates the expected pullback. The metal is following the clear-cut bullish trend. Thus, trading above $1,300 with a daily close indicates strength and impulsive pressure of the bulls. The strong momentum might push the price towards $1,500 in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 1,290, 1,300-20

RESISTANCE: 1,350, 1,380, 1,400, 1,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

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For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed an underestimated volatility of 35 points. However, this is already enough to send a quote to the control point. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the quotation, forming a recovery movement, has already managed to overcome the level of 1.1300, while maintaining a downward interest. Now the focus of traders next coordinates 1.1265, which reflects the earlier accumulation and a possible point of support and a turning point of the trend. In previous reviews, we have already developed the theory that there are prerequisites for a change in the long-term downward trend. The quotation now needs to find a foothold in the values of 1.1300-1.1265, so that there will be a gain and a new round of momentum. Of course, this is only a discussion for now. However, I think everything will fall into place in the near future.

We turn to the news background of the previous day, and what we see is practically nothing when it comes to statistical data. Published data on industrial production in Europe has an insignificant increase, which is not even displayed on the trading chart. In the United States, data were published with a number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, where a slight increase from 219K to 222K was shown. The reason for the strengthening of the dollar and amplitude fluctuation comes from the great uncertainty associated with the UK & EU divorce process, where we currently have elections in Britain which will take place for the Conceptive Party leader. This is also superimposed on the trading schedule.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in the United States, where growth is expected from 3.1% to 3.4%. At the same time, data on industrial production in the United States will be published, where growth from 0.9% to 2.5% is also expected.

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The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is quite saturated. We have a Fed meeting and a pretty good array of statistics. The most interesting events are displayed below --->

Tuesday, June 18

EU 9:00 UTC+00 - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 1.2%

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Number of building permits issued (May): Prev. 1.290M ---> Forecast 1,300M

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - The volume of construction of new homes (May): Prev. 1,235M ---> Forecast of 1,240M

Wednesday, June 19

15:30 UTC+00 - Fed meeting followed by FOMC press conference

Thursday, June 20

United States 12:00 UTC+00 - The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits

Friday, June 21

EU 08:00 UTC+00 - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (June): Prev. 47.7 ---> Forecast 48.1

United States 14:00 UTC+00 - Sales in the secondary housing market (May): Prev. 5.19M ---> Forecast 5.24M

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation has come closer to the control point in the face of the level of 1.1265, where it felt a foothold and slowed down. Now, it is worth looking at the behavior of the quotes, how strong will the rollback or stagnation. Particular attention is paid to the point of fixation, if there will be a breakdown of the level at which the main trend will resume.

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Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Purchase items are considered higher than 1.1310.

- Sell positions are considered lower than 1.1260.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicators in the short term are aimed at climbing, due to the primary level testing. Intraday perspective maintains downward interest. The medium-term perspective, in turn, holds upward interest against the background of the earlier move.

mt5_analytics5d0374f702fd1.png

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(June 14 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 20 points. Volatility can still accelerate, if, of course, there is no stagnation within the value of 1.1265.

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Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading plan EURUSD 06/14/2019

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On Thursday, the major business media reported that the majority of Fed policy experts (75%) expects that the next action of the Fed will be a rate cut. The question is when it will happen. The Fed meeting is already on June 19.

The second main topic: the planned meeting of the US-China on trade at the G20 summit. Will the parties be able to finally find a compromise? Trump threatens to impose duties of 25% on the new $300 billion worth of goods from China. If this happens, experts predict a recession in the US economy and the world, most likely.

EURUSD: We expect continued growth.

Keep purchasing. It is possible to enter the breakdown of 1.1350 up.

Down input from 1.1199.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Wave analysis of EUR / USD and GBP / USD for June 14. Speech by Mark Carney could put pressure on the pair pound-dollar

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EUR / USD

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On Thursday, June 13, trading ended for EUR / USD by a decrease of only 10 bp. Thus, the current wave counting, which suggests the construction of a corrective three wave section of the trend, has remained in force. Since the three waves are already traced, this wave structure can be completed in the near future. The euro-dollar tool will resume the increase in the upward trend. The news background, supporting the Eurocurrency in recent weeks, may hinder the execution of this option. However, this will not always be the case. Today in America, data on retail sales and consumer confidence are shown, which can support the dollar and the euro. If the US dollar receives support, we'll have to monitor the correctional structure if it takes a convincing look. Previously, there are no news from Europe.

Purchase goals:

1.1367 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.1447 - 100.0% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.1106 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The euro / dollar pair presumably completed the first wave of the upward trend. I recommend to wait for the completion of wave 2 construction and start purchasing Eurocurrency with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.1367 and 1.1447, which equates to 76.4% and 100.0% Fibonacci. As a signal of the completion of the construction of wave 2, you can consider turning the MACD up.

GBP / USD

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The pair GBP / USD continues to make the third attempt to break through the level of 161.8% Fibonacci. The last day's trading ended with a decrease of the pound-dollar pair by only a few points, which in no way affected the wave pattern. The community of traders strongly discusses the victory of Boris Johnson in the first round of elections for the post of head of the Conservative Party and British Prime Minister. The closest competitors are behind by more than 50 votes. A total of 341 party members voted. But at the same time, markets are not in a hurry to play this information, since this is only the first round, and, despite the victory of Johnson with a large margin, subsequent tours may not be so much unequivocal. Thus, I still expect the resumption of the construction of the downward trend. But, as before, in order to confirm the readiness of markets for this scenario, I recommend waiting for a successful attempt to break through the level of 200.0% Fibonacci. Today, by the way, Mark Carney's statement - the Chairman of the Central Bank of England - will take place, and the information can be very interesting, given the fact that there is only more for discussion in the UK now.

Sales targets:

1.2554 - 200.0% Fibonacci

1.2360 - 261.8% Fibonacci

Purchase goals:

1.3175 - 0.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern of the pound / dollar instrument does not change and implies a resumption of the instrument decline within the framework of the proposed wave from or a new, fifth wave. Thus, now, I recommend waiting for a breakout level of 200.0% and selling the pound with targets located near the calculated levels of 1.2360 and 1.2176, which corresponds to 261.8% and 323.6% in Fibonacci. Purchasing, from my point of view, still carries increased risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The dollar ends with growth this week, the euro and the pound are selling amid rising risks

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Inflationary expectations in the US continue to decline. Following the slowdown in consumer inflation, foreign trade prices also show negative dynamics. The price indices for imports and exports declined by 0.3% and 0.2% in May and on an annualized basis, the decline was 1.5% and 0.7%. The slowdown in prices is objectively lowering expectations for inflation.

The yield of 5-year TIPS bonds dropped to 1.56%, which indicates business confidence that the January minimum of 1.49% will be updated in the very near future.

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State rates bonds are actively declining in most key countries. The yield on 10-year treasures has come close to 2%, which indicates growing market confidence while the Fed will begin the rate cut cycle no later than September.

The trade war for markets between the United States and China is gaining momentum. The parties are only trying to announce steps, after which a compromise will be impossible, but everything goes to this. More and more experts are inclined to conclude that the effect of Trump's tax reform is largely offset by a trade war. The WTO predicts that world trade will collapse by 17% in the event of a full-scale trade war, which in the face of a recession, could trigger the largest financial crisis in recent history.

Oil prices are not responding to provocation in the Gulf of Oman. The attack on US tankers officially blames Iran, but the evidence is comparable to the famous "Powell test tube".

In general, the markets cannot go into the growth phase, which would be expected against the background of the upcoming easing of the monetary policy of the Fed and a number of other central banks. Perhaps, the threat of a recession turns out to be stronger and even emergency measures will not help form a steady uptrend. The rise in gold prices is logical and will continue, as will the growth in demand for bonds.

EUR/USD pair

The volume of industrial production in the eurozone fell by 0.5% in April with the annual reduction was 0.4%, which is slightly better than -0.7% a month earlier. However, the index has been in negative territory for 6 consecutive months, which is one of the clear signs of a recession.

The euro is losing ground for the resumption of growth. A decline is likely to happen on Friday to the nearest support zone of 1.1258/63 and then the target will be 1.170/75.

GBPUSD pair

Private consumption in the UK is still the main driving force behind GDP growth, as a weak pound led to higher prices for imports and consequently, to higher prices. A year ago, this dynamic gave reason to hope that the Bank of England would look for a way to normalize monetary policy but the protracted decision on the Brexit issue led to a political crisis and an outflow of investments.

Despite the recession, the reduction in investment has not yet had a profound effect on economic growth. The situation in the eurozone looks even worse than in the UK at the moment.

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The main source of uncertainty is still Brexit. The attempt to leave the EU on March 29 was postponed. The key date was postponed to October 31 and even this date may not be final. But first of all, another transfer means prolongation of the period of uncertainty. Thus, the pound is unlikely to be able to resume growth even if the main macroeconomic indicators contribute to this.

The race for the post of prime minister officially kicked off with Boris Johnson and the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jeremy Hunt are expected to be the leader of the round, which will take place on Tuesday, June 18th. Johnson's win will increase the likelihood of "exiting without a deal" and will weaken the pound.

The postponement of the Brexit date contributed to a decline in the GBP/USD pair. Against the background of a slowdown in world trade and the general return of the largest central banks to certain policy mitigation methods, there is no need to wait for any steps to tighten from the Bank of England. In the previous review, we assumed that the pound would go to the side range with the boundaries at 1.2653 to 1.2762. The pound strictly kept the forecast and currently, the probability of going down from the range has increased. The GBP/USD pair will drift towards the May minimum of 1.2556.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Franc will buy

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At the beginning of last week, the franc paired with the euro reached two-year lows against the background of a rather sharp rise in anti-risk sentiment and dovish intentions of the ECB regarding the prospects for monetary policy. According to general market expectations, the Swiss regulator was supposed to react to this fact especially against the background of the escalating trade conflict between the US and China, as well as after the events in the Gulf of Oman. However, the Swiss National Bank ignored the warning signals at its June meeting yesterday and retained the status quo. This fact surprised investors, thus the cross-pair returned to the base of the 12th figure after a pulse of growth to 1.1247.

In general, the head of the SNB, Thomas Jordan, voiced soft rhetoric. He stated that the world economy is showing "contradictory signals", while global trade conflicts and a rise in protectionist sentiments only exacerbate general uncertainty. Regarding the situation within the state, Jordan noted an imbalance in the housing market, a weak inflation rate, and an overvalued national currency. He said that all of these circumstances justify negative interest rates. Also, the head of the SNB reiterated that the regulator is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to maintain the attractiveness of investments in the franc at low levels.

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By and large, Jordan voiced a standard set of theses, which he repeats at each SNB meeting. In view of this fact, the traders actually ignored his performance, having long been accustomed to such "dovish" turns. The only know-how of yesterday's meeting is to change the key interest rate. Now, the SNB rate on deposits will now be the base rate instead of the targeted level of the three-month Libor rate. The accompanying statement by the Central Bank states that the reason for making this decision was that "the future of Libor remains unclear." However, in essence, the regulator retained the status quo here. As stated by the SNB statement, "the introduction of the interest rate guarantees that the forecast will be based on the same interest rate for the entire forecast period" (ie, until 2021).

Thus, the Swiss regulator has left out of focus the current situation in the foreign exchange market, "getting rid of" the formal phrases of a "dovish" character. This suggests that the franc retains its attractiveness as a protective tool as far as possible, given the effect of negative rates. Meanwhile, the unfolding events suggest that the demand for safe-haven currencies will grow. Let me remind you that two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman this week. According to preliminary data, unknown persons made a torpedo attack and as a result, explosions and fire occurred on ships. The United States almost immediately blamed Iran for the attack while Tehran categorically rejected involvement in the incident. This incident was discussed at a closed meeting of the UN Security Council. However, no specific decisions were made. Countries advocated an investigation into the attack.

In other words, geopolitical tensions are rising again, intensifying anti-risk sentiment in the foreign exchange market. Washington and Tehran are not ready to conduct a direct dialogue with each other, thereby aggravating the overall situation. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, said yesterday that Trump "does not deserve any communication, neither now nor in the future." He also noted that Iran already had the "sad experience" of negotiations with the States and there will be no more such mistakes to be repeated. Here, it is obvious that he was referring to the Nuclear Agreement from which the United States unilaterally withdrew and initiated sanctions pressure on Iran.

Meanwhile, the trade war between the United States and China also has not subsided. On the contrary: Trump said the other day that if the parties did not enter into a trade agreement in the near future, the American side would impose additional duties on Chinese goods totaling $ 325 billion. In turn, the Chinese authorities have warned the leaders of a number of major technology companies about the extremely negative consequences if they support the US ban on the sale of key technologies for Chinese companies. According to the American press, we are talking about companies such as Microsoft, Dell, ARM, Samsung, and SK Hynix Inc. It is noteworthy that representatives of these companies refused to comment on these threats.

Thus, the general fundamental background contributes to the strengthening of protective tools, which also includes the franc. The passive position of the SNB only increases the attractiveness of the Swiss currency.

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In technical terms, the EUR / CHF cross-pair is between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly chart, as well as under the Kumo cloud and all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. All of these speaks of the priority of the downward movement, at least to the first level of support at 1.1140 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement

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For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed an extremely low volatility of 45 points. As a result, the quotation continued to fluctuate within the lower limit of the outset. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the side channel 1.2660 / 1.2750 continues its formation, developing at the current time near the lower border and drawing a clear stagnation. Looking at the chart in general terms, we see that the correctional movement of 1.2558 ---> 1.2761 led us to a stagnation in the form of a flat, which probably serves as a certain regrouping of trading forces, which is a good sign.

The information and news background of the past day had practically no statistical data in it. The only thing that could be identified was the unemployment benefit in the United States, where the characteristic increase was from 1.693K to 1.695K with a forecast of 1.680K. As you already understand, the news, in principle, did not play. The information background was more interesting. From Britain, there was news that Boris Johnson won the first round of the election of the leader of the Conception Party. In the first round of the tour of the participation of the joint venture of the Communities of the Communist Party of the Communist Party, the ex-ministerial of foreign affairs received 114 votes. The second round is in June 18, but, in principle, everything is already understood. By the way, one of the reasons for the current flat is the uncertainty associated with the elections, or rather, with the further fate of the UK & EU divorce process.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on retail sales in the United States, where growth is expected from 3.1% to 3.4%. At the same time, data on industrial production will be published in the States, where growth is also expected, from 0.9% to 2.5%.

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The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar is quite rich in comparison with the past. We have two meetings at once - the Fed and the Bank of England are also a pretty good layer of statistical data. The most interesting events are displayed below --->

Tuesday, June 18

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Number of building permits issued (May): Prev. 1.290M ---> Forecast 1,300M

United States 12:30 UTC +00 - The volume of construction of new homes (May): Prev. 1,235M ---> Forecast of 1,240M

Wednesday, June 19

United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time. - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (May): Prev. 2.1% ---> Forecast 2.2%

18:30 Universal time - Fed meeting followed by FOMC press conference

Thursday, June 20

United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time. - Retail Sales (YoY) (May): Prev. 5.2% ---> Forecast 4.6%

11:00 UTC+00 - Bank of England meeting

Friday, June 21

United Kingdom 8:30 Universal time. - Public sector borrowing (May): Prev. 4.97V ---> 5.10V Forecast

United States 14:00 UTC+00 - Sales in the secondary housing market (May): Prev. 5.19M ---> Forecast 5.24M

These are preliminary and subject to change.

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the cutting quotation slowed down within the lower boundary of the side channel 1.2660 / 1.2750. It is likely to assume that the fluctuation within the limits of the existing framework will continue, where traders carefully analyze the boundaries for breakdown, as the current movement reflects a certain accumulation that will lead to new turns of momentum.

mt5_analytics5d035c712c060.png

Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:

- Positions for purchase is considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.2700.

- If we still do not have positions for sale, we consider them in case of price fixing lower than 1.2650.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term have a variable upward interest against the background of stagnation. On the other hand, intraday and medium term retain a downward interest.

mt5_analytics5d035c9e028fb.png

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(June 14 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 18 points, which is a low value for a given time segment. It is likely to assume that the current stagnation will lead to acceleration, but if we keep the oscillation within the boundaries of the flat, then we should not expect anything cardinal.

mt5_analytics5d035ce02e93b.png

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.2770 **; 1.2880 (1.2865-1.2880) *; 1.2920 * 1.3000 **; 1.3180 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700.

Support areas: 1.2620; 1,2500 *; 1.2350 **.

* Periodic level

** Range Level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Burning forecast 06.14.2019 EURUSD

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The market was influenced by a new factor of international tension: two tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked and damaged - the US claimed that the video showed Iran's involvement in the attacks on the tankers. Iran has previously threatened to block the transportation of oil through the bay. A significant part of the oil supply to Europe follows through this zone. The price of oil did not react much, the dollar strengthened.

Otherwise, economic news shows a slowdown in US growth.

EURUSD: the euro is held in a state of growth despite more than four days of correction.

We keep buying from 1.1190 and from 1.1220

Possible purchases from current levels and entry into the breakdown to the top 1.1350.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

June 14, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

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On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180).

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards the price zone of 1.3130-1.3170 where the depicted bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

Hence, Bearish breakdown below 1.2980 allowed the recent significant bearish movement to occur.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) followed by further bearish decline towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650) where the GBPUSD pair looked oversold obviously.

Conservative traders were suggested NOT to consider any SELL signals around those low price levels.

As anticipated, bullish breakout above 1.2650 has already been achieved. This enhanced the bullish side of the market towards 1.2750 which is preventing further bullish advancement until now.

Recently, the price level of 1.2650 stood as a prominent demand level offering a valid BUY entry (demonstrating the right shoulder of a bullish Head & Shoulders reversal pattern).

For the bulls to regain dominance, another bullish breakout above 1.2750 is needed to extend potential bullish targets towards 1.2800, 1.2890 and 1.2940 if sufficient bullish momentum is demonstrated.

On the other hand, any bearish breakout below 1.2600 invalidates the mentioned bullish scenario.

Trade Recommendations:

For Intraday traders, A valid BUY entry can be offered upon bullish breakout above 1.2750. T/P levels to be located around 1.2820, 1.2900 and 1.2940. S/L should be placed below 1.2690.

Conservative traders should wait for an extensive bullish movement towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid long-term SELL entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

16 June 2019





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