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Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on November 19

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Bitcoin recovered quite well yesterday to around $93,500, but was unable to hold that level and is currently trading below $91,000. Ethereum also pulled back above $3,150, but at the time of writing, it has returned to around $3,000.

Meanwhile, many traders are anxiously watching the market as assets rapidly lose value, despite news of institutional and corporate purchases of cryptocurrency. According to the November BofA survey, the level of cryptocurrency adoption among institutions remains very low. Approximately 76% of global fund managers surveyed have not yet invested in crypto and are only considering it in the near future.

This raises doubts about the common belief that institutional investors provide a reliable foundation for the cryptocurrency market. Their potential participation is often seen as a guarantee of stability and further growth; however, reality is still far from these expectations.

It turns out that the current volatility and price declines are primarily driven by retail investor sentiment and speculative operations rather than long-term strategies of major players. This makes the market particularly vulnerable to panic selling and negative news.

For this reason, traders should exercise caution and focus on fundamental analysis rather than relying solely on short-term trends or the promise of institutional investors entering through spot ETFs. Diversifying a portfolio and adopting a conservative investment approach can help minimize risk amid current uncertainty.

As for intraday strategies in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to trade on significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the expectation of a continued medium-term bullish market that has not disappeared.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $91,300, with a target of growth to $92,700. Around $92,700, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can be done from the lower boundary of $90,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown back toward the levels of $91,300 and $92,700.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $90,400, with a target to drop to $89,200. Around $89,200, I will exit the sells and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be done at the upper boundary of $91,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown back toward $90,400 and $89,200.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,048, with a target of growth to $3,150. Around $3,150, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can be done at the lower boundary of $3,012 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown back toward $3,048 and $3,150.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,012, aiming to drop to $2,950. Around $2,950, I will exit the sell and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can be done at the upper boundary of $3,048 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown back toward $3,012 and $2,950.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 19

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The euro and pound have only slightly decreased against the dollar, but overall, trading has remained within sideways channels, from which the trading instruments have been unable to escape for a whole week.

Positive data on U.S. industrial orders and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials supported the dollar. Positive macroeconomic indicators, particularly the increase in industrial orders, signal a recovery in the industrial sector and strengthening economic growth. This, in turn, reduces the necessity for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed, as reflected in recent comments from the central bank. The Fed's cautious rhetoric, emphasizing that future decisions will depend on incoming data, also contributes to the strengthening of the dollar.

Today, pressure on the euro may increase as Eurozone inflation data is expected in the first half of the day. The core prices will also be published. These figures will serve as key indicators of inflation trends in the region and will directly affect the euro exchange rate. If the data indicate higher inflation rates than expected, it could strengthen speculation about a potential complete abandonment of the European Central Bank's soft monetary policy.

Regarding the pound, inflation data for the UK and the core consumer price index are also expected in the first half of the day. The situation with prices is much worse there than in the Eurozone. Economists predict that price pressures may increase again, which could strengthen the British pound. However, this optimism should be approached with caution, considering the challenging situation surrounding the British economy. The strengthening of the pound, driven by the potential rise in inflation, has a dual nature. On one hand, it could lower import costs, which may help restrain further price increases in the long run. On the other hand, it would make British exports less competitive in global markets, which could negatively affect the country's trade balance. Additionally, the Bank of England is likely to be forced to continue its policy of high interest rates to curb inflation, which may put pressure on economic growth.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it would be advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly above or below economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Long positions on a breakout of 1.1605 may lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1635 and 1.1655.
• Shorts on a breakout of 1.1585 may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1564 and 1.1543.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Longs on a breakout of 1.3165 may lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3185 and 1.3211.
• Shorts on a breakout of 1.3135 may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3110 and 1.3085.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Longs on a breakout of 155.50 may lead to a rise in the dollar to around 155.85 and 156.25.
• Shorts on a breakout of 155.20 may lead to a decline in the dollar to around 154.75 and 154.31.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.1593 when returning below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.1572 when returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.3154 when returning below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.3125 when returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 0.6510 when returning below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 0.6474 when returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.4005 when returning below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout below 1.3978 when returning to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 19. Euro Confused About Direction

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Yesterday, there were no suitable entry points in the market. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1584 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. A decline occurred, but the situation did not reach the test of 1.1584, so I was left without trades in the first half of the day. The same story repeated itself in the second half of the day.

For opening long positions on EUR/USD, it is required:

Good data on manufacturing orders in the U.S. and cautious statements from Federal Reserve representatives supported the dollar in the second half of the day, but this did not lead to strong technical changes in the market. Today, pressure on the euro may increase. In the first half of the day, data on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index and the core Consumer Price Index for October this year are expected. A report on the European Central Bank's current account balance will also be published. If the figures turn out to be lower than economists' forecasts, it will boost the confidence of the ECB in its actions regarding interest rates, which will weaken the euro's position. In this case, I expect the first signs of buyers only around the support level of 1.1584, which is of an intermediate nature. The formation of a false breakout there will provide an entry point for long positions, with the aim of further recovery of the pair to resistance at 1.1607. A breakout and a reverse test of this range will confirm the right actions for buying the euro in anticipation of a larger jump of the pair to 1.1632. The furthest target will be last week's high at 1.1655, where I will take profit. Testing this level will strengthen the bullish market for the euro. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and a lack of activity around 1.1584, pressure on the pair will intensify, potentially leading to a larger sell-off. Sellers will likely reach the next interesting level at 1.1564. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be an appropriate condition for buying the euro. Long positions will be opened at a rebound from 1.1543 with the aim of an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

For opening short positions on EUR/USD, it is required:

Sellers continue the correction, but they do it quite cautiously. In the event of a rise in the euro and a bullish reaction to Eurozone inflation data, the initial task for bears will be to defend the 1.1607 resistance level. The formation of a false breakout there will provide an entry point for short positions, aiming to move the pair to support at 1.1584. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a reverse test from bottom to top, will be another suitable option for opening short positions with a move toward 1.1564. The furthest target will be the 1.1543 area, where I will take profit. In the case of an upward move in EUR/USD and the absence of active bearish action around 1.1607, it is best to postpone short positions until a larger level at 1.1632. Selling there will only be done after an unsuccessful consolidation. I plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.1655, aiming for a 30-35-pip downward correction.

Recommended for review:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data is not being published. The last relevant report is only from September 23.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 23, there was an increase in short positions and a reduction in long positions. Expectations of further declines in interest rates by the Federal Reserve continue to exert pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, the number of euro buyers is not increasing either, as political problems in France and risks of a new wave of inflation growth force the ECB to act much more cautiously, slowing economic growth. The COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions decreased by 789 to a level of 252,472, while non-commercial short positions increased by 2,625 to a level of 138,625. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 873.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a further correction of the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1570 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 50. Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 30. Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 19. Pound Remains Within Channel

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Yesterday, several entry points in the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3176 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.3176 provided a sell entry point for the pound, resulting in a move of more than 25 pips. In the second half of the day, buyers appeared in the area of 1.3138, which allowed for long positions on a false breakout. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.

For opening long positions on GBP/USD, it is required:

The absence of UK reports and budget-related news keeps the GBP/USD pair within a sideways channel. However, everything may change today. In the first half of the day, data on the UK Consumer Price Index and the core Consumer Price Index are expected. Economists forecast that price pressures may increase, strengthening the British pound. Otherwise, the pair will remain trading within the range. In that case, only the formation of a false breakout around the support level of 1.3138 will provide a reason to open long positions with the aim of raising the pair to resistance at 1.3176. A breakout and a reverse test from the top to the bottom of this range will increase the chances of strengthening GBP/USD, triggering stop orders for sellers and providing a suitable entry point for long positions, with potential to move up to 1.3211. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3244, where I plan to take profit. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of buying activity at 1.3138, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to a move toward the next support level at 1.3111. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be an appropriate condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.3086, aiming for a correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

For opening short positions on GBP/USD, it is required:

Sellers showed themselves yesterday, but the price did not break out of the channel. In the event of a rise in GBP/USD after the inflation data, I expect bearish activity around the 1.3176 resistance level, which bulls have been unable to break through for quite some time. The formation of a false breakout there will be sufficient to sell the pound, aiming to move down to support at 1.3138. A breakout and a reverse test from bottom to top of this range will strike a heavier blow to buyers' positions, triggering stop orders and opening the way to 1.3111. The furthest target will be the area of 1.3086, where I will take profit. In the event of an upward move in GBP/USD and a lack of activity at 1.3176, buyers will have a chance for a larger increase in the pair, which may lead to continued bullish market formation. In this case, it is better to postpone short positions until the 1.3211 resistance level is tested. I plan to open shorts there only on a false breakout. In the absence of downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3244, but only in anticipation of a downward correction of the pair of 30-35 pips within the day.

Recommended for review:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data is not being published. The last relevant report is only from September 23.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 23, there was a reduction in short positions and an increase in long positions. Pressure on the dollar remains, especially after recent data, likely forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates. At the same time, the Bank of England's stance remains cautious, indicating its clear plans to fight inflation further, though this has not provided much confidence for pound buyers recently. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be determined by new fundamental reports. The latest COT report shows that non-commercial long positions increased by 3,704 to 84,500, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 912 to 86,464. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 627.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3135 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 50. Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 30. Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Today, On Wednesday, November 19, 2025, Natural Gas appears to have the potential to weaken down to its nearest support level.

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[Natural Gas]

Although the RSI is in the Neutral-Bullish level, but with the position of both EMAs forming a Death Cross gives an opportunity for #NG to weaken today.

Key Levels:

1. Resistance. 2 : 4.500

2. Resistance. 1 : 4.435

3. Pivot : 4.334

4. Support. 1 : 4.269

5. Support. 2 : 4.168

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of #NG breaks down and closes below 4.334, it may continue to weaken toward 4.269.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 4.269 is breached as well, #NG may continue its decline down to 4.168.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is held if Natural Gas strengthens and breaks above 4.500.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 4.360

EMA(200): 4.419

RSI(14) : 58.15

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, the following economic data will be released from the U.S. market session:

US - Trade Balance - 20:30 WIB

US - Crude Oil Inventories - 22:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crude Oil, which supported by its technical indicators, has the potential to strengthen today.

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[Crude Oil]

With the EMA in a Golden Cross position and the RSI in the Neutral-Bullish level, then the potential for #CL to strengthen today is very promising.

Key Levels:

1. Resistance. 2 : 61.91

2. Resistance. 1 : 61.29

3. Pivot : 60.30

4. Support. 1 : 59.68

5. Support. 2 : 58.69

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #CL strengthens and breaks above 61.29, it may continue to rise to 61.91.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 61.91 is successfully broken, there is potential for further strength to 62.90.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Crude Oil declines and breaks below 58.69.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 60.22

EMA(200): 59.86

RSI(14) : 54.67

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, the following economic data will be released from the U.S. market session:

US - Trade Balance - 20:30 WIB

US - Crude Oil Inventories - 22:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on November 19? Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, specifically two. Reports on October inflation will be published in the UK and the Eurozone, but while the British report is significant, the European one is not. European inflation is published in two estimates, and markets generally pay little attention to the second estimate, which rarely differs from the first. In contrast, British inflation is published in a single variation, has a strong influence (currently) on the Bank of England's monetary policy, and may slow down for the first time in five months by 0.1-0.2% year-on-year. A decline in October inflation could lead to a December cut in the BoE's key rate, creating additional challenges for the pound if the market shifts to focusing on fundamentals and macroeconomic factors.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

A few fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday. The only noteworthy event is the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, but this is a rather formal document. The document typically contains information that has already been available to the market for three weeks. It is important to remember that immediately after the central bank meeting, the results are announced, and all the most crucial information is made available to the market right away. The minutes usually discuss the sentiment of individual FOMC members, their views on inflation, the economy, and the labor market. Therefore, we do not expect any reaction to this event, and the future of the Fed's monetary policy in December will depend on the next reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to move sideways. The euro has a great trading area at 1.1571-1.1584. The British pound has two relevant trading areas: 1.3096-1.3107 and 1.3203-1.3211. The British pound may show some semblance of trending movement today, while the euro is unlikely to do so.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on November 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Tuesday's Trades:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Tuesday with minimal volatility. No important events or reports were scheduled for yesterday, and the flat movement is clearly visible from a kilometer away. The price has been trading between 1.3107 and 1.3203 for over a week, making trading purely based on rebounds from the boundaries of the sideways channel the only option for opening positions. Unfortunately, market movements are currently so weak that the price doesn't always even reach the boundaries of the channel. Consequently, the market is in a total standstill at this time. The market is clearly waiting for important macroeconomic information from the U.S. and preparing for a new trend. Market makers are currently occupied with accumulating new positions, which are most likely long positions. We remind novice traders that a flat is merely the calm before the storm. It is quite possible that when the U.S. begins publishing all the missed labor-market and unemployment reports, the market will awaken. It remains extremely difficult to expect the dollar to grow in the medium term.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Tuesday. The price did not approach any levels throughout the day, and the overall volatility was around 40 pips. Thus, there were no grounds for opening positions for novice traders.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has broken the trend line, so in the coming weeks, we expect the British currency to rise on any local news and reports. As mentioned earlier, there are no global grounds for prolonged dollar growth, so we expect upward movement only in the medium term. If the correction/flat on the daily timeframe is completed, the pair could resume the global upward trend for 2025. However, we must also wait for the flat to end on the hourly timeframe.

On Wednesday, novice traders can expect new trading signals to form in the areas of 1.3096-1.3107 and 1.3203-1.3211, as these are the boundaries of the sideways channel.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered for trading: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. An important inflation report for October is scheduled for release in the UK on Wednesday, but even this report may only lead to a spike in volatility, while the flat will likely remain. In the evening, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting will be published, which holds extremely low significance for the market.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on November 19? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Tuesday's Trades:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair felt like it was at a wake throughout Tuesday. The overall volatility of the day was even lower than 40 pips, with no important macroeconomic reports or fundamental events. Therefore, there is essentially nothing to analyze from the previous day. We can only hope that at least tomorrow the market will wake up and begin to move in the short term. It is worth noting that the daily timeframe remains flat, and whether anyone likes it or not, this flat has led to no market movement for over a month. Even on the 5-minute timeframe, movements are practically nonexistent. Furthermore, it is far from certain that we will see the start of a new trending movement on Thursday. Recall that in the past, nearly two months, there have been plenty of significant events, but most were ignored, and fewer of them provoked illogical market reactions. For instance, the market ignored the existence of a "shutdown" in the U.S. for a month and a half.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was formed on Tuesday. At the start of the American trading session, the price reached 1.1584 and bounced off it. The overall price increase was about 15-20 pips, and that's how much beginners could earn from this trade. Today, the pair could very well bounce off this level again or even the area of 1.1571-1.1584 to move up another 20-30 pips.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a new local upward trend with the potential for growth of another 150-200 pips. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop for the U.S. dollar remains very weak. Thus, the European currency may show a decline only on technical grounds—the flat on the daily timeframe remains relevant. However, we expect its completion and a resumption of the upward trend for 2025, and ascending movements can also occur within the flat.

On Wednesday, novice traders may trade from the area of 1.1571-1.1584. Another bounce from this area will allow for opening long positions targeting 1.1655. A price consolidation below the area of 1.1571-1.1584 will make short positions relevant with a target of 1.1534.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Wednesday, the second estimate of the inflation report is scheduled for release in Europe, which holds low significance. In the U.S., the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be published, but they don't carry much value for traders.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. November 19. Inflation Could Give the Pound a Boost

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Tuesday, and the flat is now visible on the 4-hour timeframe as well. In articles for novice traders, we have been discussing for a week that the pair is in a sideways channel with all the consequences that entail. This flat is now visible on the 4-hour timeframe as well, with approximate boundaries at 1.3100 and 1.3190. It is clear that on Tuesday, in the complete absence of any fundamental or macroeconomic information, the technical picture did not change.

Today, the UK will release an important inflation report for October. This report is significant because the Bank of England continues to rely on this indicator in its decision-making regarding key interest rates. At the last meeting, the British central bank indicated that it expects rising unemployment and falling inflation. Unemployment has already jumped from 4.8% to 5%, and now it's the turn of consumer prices.

Experts predict that inflation will slow to 3.6-3.7% in October. This will mark the first slowdown in consumer price growth since May of this year if it happens. In our view, such a minimal decline in inflation could be merely a temporary dip. Over the past 12 months, during which inflation surged from 1.7% to 3.8%, the figure has shown several slowdowns, only to accelerate again. Thus, relying on just one decline does not warrant making bold conclusions.

However, the Bank of England may draw those conclusions. It is worth remembering that earlier this year, Andrew Bailey discussed plans for four stages of 0.25% rate cuts. Three reductions have already taken place, leaving one more. As mentioned, a reduction in inflation to 3.7% is unlikely to be termed a "super-positive moment indicating a downward trend." However, at the last meeting, four out of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted for a rate cut. At that time, inflation in the UK had not decreased by even a fraction.

Therefore, it can be assumed that any decline in inflation within today's report will suggest a new easing of monetary policy by the BoE in December. If this is the case, the British pound may resume its decline, but it should be noted that in recent months, the market has ignored many fundamental factors. It's possible that we may see a fall in the British pound momentarily, followed by a continuation of erratic movement within a narrow price range or flat.

The technical picture on the daily timeframe remains clear—an upward trend and a correction against it. However, this correction shows no signs of ending. We have seen no particular prospects for the dollar, and at the same time, there are currently no signs of an end to the global correction on the daily timeframe. On the 4-hour timeframe, the CCI indicator has exhausted its ability to create "bullish" divergences and enter the oversold area, but the market is currently ignoring all bullish factors. The spring continues to compress.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days as of November 19 is 76 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to move within the range of 1.3064 and 1.3216 on Wednesday. The higher channel of linear regression is directed downwards, but only due to technical corrections on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory four times, suggesting a potential resumption of the upward trend. Another bullish divergence has formed, from which the last growth spiral began.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3062
• S2 – 1.2939
• S3 – 1.2817

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3184
• R2 – 1.3306
• R3 – 1.3428

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume its 2025 upward trend, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the American currency to appreciate. Thus, long positions with targets of 1.3306 and 1.3428 remain relevant for the near future while the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions with a target of 1.3062 may be considered on technical grounds. From time to time, the U.S. currency shows corrections (on a global basis), but for any trend to strengthen, it needs real signs of resolution to the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it indicates that the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the following days, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. November 19. Long-Awaited Non-Farm Payrolls

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Tuesday, with no significant events throughout the day. In principle, there are almost daily speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank and/or the Federal Reserve, but they currently carry little significance for the market. For at least the past month and a half, traders have ignored many factors, news, events, and reports. Thus, completely neutral statements from central bank officials are of no interest to them.

The ECB does not plan to undertake monetary policy easing in the near future. The Fed is eyeing a pause in December, but at the same time (as always before) points to macroeconomic data, which will determine the central bank's decision. Therefore, until we know the state of the U.S. labor market, discussing the Fed's decision in December makes little sense. It would be one thing if this information were available to the Fed itself, and from the statements of its officials, we could understand what to expect. However, this data is not even available to the central bank.

This Thursday, with a month-and-a-half delay, the Non-Farm Payrolls report for September will be released. Honestly, it is challenging to understand how to approach this. It is evident that it will provoke a spike in volatility and likely a significant one. However, everyone in the market understands that this data is nearly two months old and currently holds almost no value, since at that time the Fed had not even resumed its monetary policy easing cycle.

Thus, a relatively high Non-Farm number may indeed support the U.S. dollar, but it will not change the global trend and overall outlook for the American currency. It's worth noting that the EUR/USD pair has been flat for several months now, trading between 1.1400 and 1.1830 on the daily timeframe. Therefore, the flat is the most critical aspect at this moment. The Non-Farm Payrolls report on Thursday may merely help traders exit the entrenched range.

However, the September Non-Farm Payrolls do not allow us to make any conclusions regarding the Fed's December meeting. Data for October and November are needed. It is based on this information that the Fed will judge whether the U.S. labor market is recovering after two consecutive rounds of monetary policy easing or if urgent new easing is required. Additionally, inflation will be of immense importance, as most FOMC officials consider stabilizing inflation to be a higher-priority task. Thus, if inflation in America accelerates further, even amid weakness in the labor market, we should not expect a new rate cut.

For the U.S. dollar, a "neutral" Fed stance in December is a positive development, but changes nothing. The Fed will continue to ease monetary policy in one form or another, while the ECB has already completed its easing. Therefore, the dollar remains a vulnerable currency.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past five trading days, as of November 19, is 48 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1528 and 1.1624 on Wednesday. The higher channel of linear regression is directed downwards, signaling a bearish trend, but in fact, a flat continues on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator entered the oversold territory twice in October, which may provoke a new wave of the upward trend for 2025.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1536
• S2 – 1.1475
• S3 – 1.1414

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1597
• R2 – 1.1658
• R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair has once again stabilized above the moving average, with an upward trend maintained across all higher timeframes, while a flat has persistently continued on the daily timeframe for several months. The global fundamental backdrop continues to exert a strong influence on the U.S. dollar. Recently, the dollar has risen, but the reasons for such a movement may be purely technical. If the price is positioned below the moving average, small short positions may be considered with a target of 1.1528 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.1800 (the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe).

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it indicates that the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the following days, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on November 19: Total Flat Continues

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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair traded exclusively sideways, with minimal volatility, on Tuesday. The pair remains within the sideways channel of 1.3115-1.3190 and is not even attempting to break out of it. There were no macroeconomic or fundamental events yesterday, so traders had nothing to react to throughout the day. The situation may change today, as an important inflation report will be published in the UK that could impact the Bank of England's rate decision at the next meeting. However, even this may not be enough to end the flat. The day after, the long-awaited Non-Farm Payrolls report and unemployment rates will be released in the U.S., but they may only trigger a spike in volatility and further chaos in the pair's movements. The British pound needs to consolidate above the Senkou Span B line. Without this, upward movement will not continue under any circumstances. For this to happen, inflation in the UK needs to come in higher than forecasts, while labor market and unemployment data in the U.S. need to disappoint.

On the daily timeframe, the movement's status remains corrective. We continue to await the end of the current correction, which has not aligned with fundamentals and macroeconomic factors for the past month and a half.

On the 5-minute timeframe yesterday, no trading signals were formed. The price did not even approach any levels or lines throughout the day. Thus, there were no grounds for opening trading positions.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing constantly in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, they are at almost the same level, indicating approximately equal amounts of long and short positions.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for sterling is not particularly significant at the moment. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, lower rates in the coming year, leading to a decline in dollar demand in one way or another. According to the latest report (dated September 23) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated, and there are no new reports.

In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but one must understand that this was due to Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may begin to rise, but when this will happen is anyone's guess. It does not matter how fast the net position for the pound is increasing or decreasing. The net position for the dollar is declining in any case, and it is generally declining faster.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has finally broken the trend line and surpassed the Senkou Span B line. It turned out to be short-lived and only led to a flat. In the coming weeks, a continuation of the British pound's growth can be expected, but it is necessary for the flow of uncontrolled negativity from the UK to cease. We still believe that medium-term growth will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, but for it to continue, the Senkou Span B line needs to be overcome.

For November 19, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3190) and Kijun-sen line (1.3100) can also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, an important inflation report is scheduled for release in the UK. We hope it triggers an exit from the sideways channel. In the evening, the minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting will also be published, which can be considered a secondary event.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider selling if the price bounces off the 1.3212 level or the Senkou Span B line, with a target at 1.3115. Long positions will become relevant if the price rebounds from the 1.3096-1.3115 area, with a target at 1.3190.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels are shown as thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of each category of traders' net position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on November 19: Euro Descends to Dangerous Levels

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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with very low volatility and a downward bias on Tuesday. By the end of the day, the pair reached the Senkou Span B line, and the future trend we will observe in the coming weeks depends on this level. It's important to remember that the daily timeframe remains in a flat, meaning movements within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 can be entirely random and not dependent on fundamentals or macroeconomics. However, there were no significant events or news during the first two days of the week. The current correction could be beneficial, as it may help form an ascending trend line based on its extremes. We still believe the price is long overdue for an upward move purely on technical grounds within the sideways channel. Yet, once again, movements within a flat can be completely random.

This week, reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment levels will be published in the U.S. Thus, volatility may be higher tomorrow. However, this is unlikely to help traders, as market reactions may be ambiguous and chaotic, and it's impossible to predict the values of these reports at this time.

In yesterday's 5-minute timeframe, two sell signals were formed. The price bounced twice from the 1.1604-1.1610 area, losing approximately 15-20 pips on each occasion. The first trade had difficulty securing a profit, while the second could easily be closed manually closer to the evening, around the Senkou Span B line.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated September 23. Since then, no further COT reports have been published due to the U.S. "shutdown." In the illustration above, it is clear that the net position of non-commercial traders has long been "bullish," with bears struggling to gain the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly losing it. Since Trump took office for a second term as President of the U.S., the dollar has been falling. We cannot assert that the decline of the American currency will continue with 100% probability, but current world events suggest that this may be the case.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, while there remain sufficient factors that would weaken the dollar. The global downtrend is still ongoing, but what difference does it make where the price moved in the last 17 years? Once Trump concludes his trade wars, the dollar may start to rise, but recent events indicate that the war will continue in one form or another for a long time yet.

The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 2,600. Consequently, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated and holds no significance.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a new upward trend. The rise of the euro does not align with the local macroeconomic backdrop and fundamentals, yet it completely aligns with the global ones. The price remains within the daily timeframe's sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830, so an increase in the euro towards 1.1800 can indeed be expected soon, even within a local trend. The key is to stay above the Senkou Span B line.

For November 19, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1569) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1610). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

In the Eurozone, the second estimate of October inflation is scheduled for release on Wednesday and is unlikely to be of significant interest to anyone. In the evening, the publication of the latest FOMC meeting minutes is also considered a secondary event. We can say that the news today will be very weak.

Trading Recommendations:

On Wednesday, traders may open long positions in the event of a bounce from the Senkou Span B line with a target of 1.1604-1.1615. Short positions will become relevant upon a consolidation below the Senkou Span B line, with a target at 1.1534.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels are shown as thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of each category of traders' net position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What Did the Fed Officials Say?

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As I mentioned, most Federal Reserve officials support keeping interest rates unchanged three weeks before the next meeting (the last one of the year). What exactly did the officials communicate?

Mary Daly and Neel Kashkari stated that inflation has been elevated and persistent, drifting away from the Fed's target of 2%, hence monetary policy should remain sufficiently "restrictive" to continue curbing price growth. Both officials noted that the FOMC has already lowered rates twice in the second half of 2025, hinting that it will provide "first aid" to the labor market. They also pointed out that the economy is currently stable amid Donald Trump's new trade policy, so further easing is not required at this time.

Daly also noted that it is still too early to discuss the central bank's future decision, as there are more than three weeks left until the year's last meeting. Economic information will soon start coming in, helping officials make the right decision on December 10.

Beth Hammack believes that in December, the Fed should pay more attention to rising inflation, especially if the next report again indicates acceleration. A new increase in the consumer price index would suggest that the Fed is moving away from its 2% target, as any subsequent easing of monetary policy would lead to even higher inflation.

Alberto Musalem stated that inflation in America is too high and that the FOMC should therefore act cautiously going forward. Musalem feels that if interest rates are lowered too much, inflation could spiral out of control for the central bank.

Susan Collins said she does not see a noticeable deterioration in the labor market; therefore, a new round of policy easing is not necessary. She also noted that a new rate cut would be appropriate only when new evidence of the "cooling" of the labor market emerges.

Based on all the comments from FOMC officials, it can be concluded that without new negative data from the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the next round of easing will take a long time to arrive. I do not believe that such a position from the Fed will provide strong support to the dollar, as the central bank is maintaining rates unchanged rather than increasing them. Therefore, I remain inclined to expect an increase in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis conducted on EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current segment of the trend may stretch all the way to the 25-figure. A building upward wave sequence may begin now. I expect that from the area of 1.1541 – 1.1587, the third wave of this set will start forming, which may be either an impulse wave or a corrective wave. In any case, in the coming days, I am considering buying with targets around 1.1740.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complicated. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumably complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main wave structure to resume its formation with initial targets around 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background should be at least a little better than last week.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are challenging to trade, as they often lead to changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There is and can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

We Are in for a Lively December FOMC Meeting

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Many economists continue to highlight the weakness in the labor market and do not believe in its recovery. There could have been no recovery in September, as the Federal Reserve only resumed monetary policy easing on September 17. In October, America was overwhelmed by a government shutdown, and there may be no data for that month at all. Even if the Bureau of Statistics somehow manages to compile reports, how accurate will they be?

Additionally, at least six Fed officials drew the market participants' attention to inflation last week. Let's do the same. Inflation in America reached its low of 2.3% year-on-year in April of this year, right when Trump first imposed tariffs. Since then, inflation has continued to rise, reaching 3% in September. Some economists expected a faster increase in consumer prices, and I am among them. However, inflation is rising neither too quickly nor so quickly as to be ignored.

When will the next inflation report be released? Looking at event calendars, they currently show the date as December 10. In other words, the Consumer Price Index for October will be released on December 10. What else is scheduled for December 10? The last FOMC meeting of the year. Based on this, the FOMC will have to decide in haste, and they might even be late for the meeting with colleagues to ensure they have time to obtain and analyze the new consumer price data.

In my previous review, I mentioned that it would only be possible to start making more or less reliable forecasts at the beginning of the following month, once labor market data becomes available. However, if at least half of the FOMC officials have spoken in recent weeks about inflation rather than the labor market, then this indicator will determine the Fed's decision. So, what possible rate forecasts can be made if the inflation report is released just hours before the FOMC meeting?

Therefore, I would like to reiterate that any forecast regarding the Fed's decision in December is mere guesswork. The market, economists, and analysts have every right to speculate and make projections, but these should be viewed with the understanding that they may change five more times in the next three weeks.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis conducted on EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current segment of the trend may stretch all the way to the 25-figure. A building upward wave sequence may begin now. I expect that from the area of 1.1541 – 1.1587, the third wave of this set will start forming, which may be either an impulse wave or a corrective wave. In any case, in the coming days, I am considering buying with targets around 1.1740.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complicated. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumably complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main wave structure to resume its formation with initial targets around 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background should be at least a little better than last week.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are challenging to trade, as they often lead to changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There is and can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Chances of "Hawkish" Maintaining Are Growing

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Most FOMC Committee members lean towards keeping the interest rate unchanged in December. It is difficult for me to say on what data this preliminary decision was made. Why did the Monetary Policy Committee express concerns about the labor market in September and November, and suddenly stop doing so now, when no reports on payrolls or unemployment have been released?

Therefore, in my opinion, any assumptions regarding the Federal Reserve's decision at the December meeting are mere guesswork. This conclusion applies to both forecasts from major banks and analytical companies, as well as those of private traders. Let me remind you that Jerome Powell repeats in every speech that the Fed will make decisions based solely on economic information. If there is no information, then what decision can the FOMC make three weeks before the next meeting?

What, then, do all the "hawkish" comments from Fed officials mean? I remind you that at least six of them have stated that they do not see the need to conduct another round of policy easing at the next meeting. In my opinion, this means that the FOMC wants to see all reports on inflation, jobs, and unemployment for September, October, and November before making a decision. The fact that the Committee is currently set to "neutral" (although many perceive this "neutrality" as "hawkishness") does not mean that their opinion and mood won't change in a few weeks (just before the Fed meeting, when FOMC officials will not be able to provide comments and interviews for 10 days).

Based on everything said, it follows that "you should count your chickens in the fall." There is still no economic information. This Thursday, reports on payrolls and unemployment will be released, which are certainly interesting but may already be outdated. The Bureau of Statistics may not provide October data at all, as the entire month was affected by a government shutdown in the U.S. I believe that only at the beginning of December can one start making certain forecasts about the Fed's decision on the 10th.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis conducted on EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current segment of the trend may stretch all the way to the 25-figure. A building upward wave sequence may begin now. I expect that from the area of 1.1541 – 1.1587, the third wave of this set will start forming, which may be either an impulse wave or a corrective wave. In any case, in the coming days, I am considering buying with targets around 1.1740.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has transformed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complicated. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, resulting in a very elongated structure. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in 4 is presumably complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main wave structure to resume its formation with initial targets around 38 and 40 figures. The key is that the news background should be at least a little better than last week.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are challenging to trade, as they often lead to changes.
2. If there is uncertainty in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter it.
3. There is and can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Euro Overwhelmed by the Fed Hawks

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No matter how hard the White House tries to take the lead in 2025, the Federal Reserve remains the main driver for the U.S. dollar. In August, Jerome Powell stated that for the central bank, slowing employment is more important than accelerating inflation. In October, the Fed's head noted that a rate cut at the end of 2025 remains unresolved. As a consequence, the futures market fluctuated between increasing and decreasing the scale of monetary expansion, causing the EUR/USD to rise and fall.

Dynamics of Market Expectations Regarding Fed Rates

As autumn came to a close, a quite interesting situation emerged. Investors concluded that the peak of rates had been reached. Indeed, after threats of 100% tariffs on imports from China, Washington and Beijing quickly reached a consensus. The White House reduced tariffs on Swiss imports in exchange for investments. Finally, tariffs on agricultural products fell in response to rising prices.

The worst seems to be over. Why not reduce inflation expectations? This is exactly what happened in October and November. If we add to this the cooling of the labor market, as indicated by ADP and other sources, why wouldn't the Federal Reserve lower rates in December? In fact, the chances of such an outcome dropped from over 90% before the October FOMC meeting to 42%.

Dynamics of Inflation Expectations

Is it a paradox? Not at all! More and more members of the Federal Open Market Committee are speaking about caution in the absence of significant data. Yes, the end of the shutdown allows the government to begin publishing data. But all indicators will be lagging. Fresh information may not appear until the end of the year. The Fed can be understood. The central bank fears making a mistake in conditions of poor visibility.

However, maintaining the federal funds rate at 4% until the end of 2025 would only mean a temporary strengthening of the U.S. dollar. When 2026 begins, two problems will emerge for the United States. Due to the shutdown, its economy will slow significantly in the fourth quarter, with the effects only visible in the numbers in January and February. Additionally, Jerome Powell's approaching resignation as Fed chair will make Donald Trump more aggressive.

The occupant of the White House does not hide his desire to lower borrowing costs to nearly 1%. He is ready to do anything for that. The president's aggressiveness allows Morgan Stanley to predict three acts of monetary expansion in the first half of 2026. As a result, the main currency pair could soar to the level of 1.2300.

Technically, the daily chart of EUR/USD shows the formation of an inside bar, indicating uncertainty. A drop in quotes below its low at 1.1578 will increase the risks of a continued decline and allow for the accumulation of short positions. It would make sense to resume buying euros against the U.S. dollar if the main currency pair rises above its fair value of 1.1610.

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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The Japanese yen is under pressure. On Monday, Nikkei Asia reported that Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, plans to begin discussions on tax reform this week. The main goal is to reduce certain taxes to stimulate investment and consumer demand, while increasing other tax rates and eliminating exemptions to offset the budget deficit. The report notes that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), together with its coalition partners, will discuss the tax package for the coming year, including the cancellation of gasoline and diesel fuel surcharges, which may reduce budget revenues by about 1.5 trillion yen.

On Monday, government data showed that Japan's economy contracted for the first time in six quarters during the July–September period. This complicates the prospects for a rapid interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, especially amid growing political resistance.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, during a Tuesday press conference, expressed concern about the recent rapid and one-sided moves in the currency market, which have sparked speculation about possible government action. He emphasized that the government is closely monitoring excessive fluctuations and chaotic movements in the foreign-exchange market, recognizing the urgency of the situation—something that helps deter traders from opening new bearish positions on the yen.

Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve officials have recently stressed the need for caution in further monetary easing, as current economic data remain a weak basis for rate cuts. This stance has reduced market expectations for a potential December rate reduction, supporting the US dollar and the USD/JPY pair.

Even so, dollar bulls are currently acting cautiously and prefer to wait for new signals regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. In this regard, investors' attention will be focused on the Fed meeting minutes due Wednesday, as well as US employment reports scheduled for Thursday.

It is also worth paying attention to statements from key Federal Reserve members, whose speeches may become an important factor in boosting dollar demand and creating short-term trading opportunities for USD/JPY.

From a technical standpoint, the fact that prices broke above the psychological level of 155.00 yesterday favors the bulls. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, confirming the optimistic outlook. Further growth of USD/JPY beyond 155.60 toward the round level of 156.00 appears quite likely.

On the other hand, a corrective pullback below 155.00 will find strong support, attracting buyers near 154.50. However, a break below this level would trigger technical selling, pushing USD/JPY toward 154.00 and lower.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Japanese yen against major currencies today. The most notable movement is against the Australian dollar.

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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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From a technical standpoint, yesterday's close above the psychological level of 155.00 has given the USD/JPY pair new upward momentum. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are positive and have not yet entered overbought territory, indicating that spot prices are still oriented toward further gains. Consequently, additional strengthening of the pair beyond the intermediate resistance at 155.60 on the way back toward the round level of 156.00 appears quite likely.

On the other hand, a corrective pullback below the round level of 155.00 will encounter strong support, attracting new buyers in the 154.50 level. This level serves as a key support point; a break below it would trigger technical selling, pushing USD/JPY toward the round level of 154.00. The decline could then extend to the next significant support around 153.65, on the way toward the next round level of 153.00.

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GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, on Tuesday, the British pound is showing gains against the Japanese yen, which continues to face pressure due to Japan's ambitious fiscal initiatives and the Bank of Japan's restrained approach to monetary tightening. At the moment, the GBP/JPY pair is trading near 204.25, hovering around the five-week high reached on Monday.

Even so, the atmosphere surrounding the pound sterling remains fragile, as market participants await the UK's budget on November 26 amid uncertainties over the government's tax and spending plans. Recent reports indicate that the Treasury is considering additional revenue options after rejecting an income tax increase, including the potential introduction of a property tax.

At the same time, rising expectations of a December rate cut by the Bank of England are adding pressure to the pound. Traders are reacting to signs of a slowing British economy, such as decelerating wage growth and rising unemployment, while inflation appears to have peaked.

The focus is now shifting to Wednesday's October Consumer Price Index report. Headline inflation is forecast to fall from 3.8% to 3.6% year-over-year, and core inflation from 3.5% to 3.4%.

Adding to the cautious tone, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill struck a moderate but slightly dovish note on Tuesday, saying policymakers face "a series of delicately balanced choices." Speaking at a Natixis event, Pill emphasized that underlying inflationary pressures in the UK are "likely not as intense as the headline numbers suggest."

He cautioned against overinterpreting fresh data, pointing to abnormal noise in some key indicators, and added that if clearer signs of recession appear, he will "have to take action."

In Japan, ambitious fiscal plans and the Bank of Japan's gradual approach to policy adjustment continue to weaken the yen.

Earlier the same day, a meeting between BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi failed to support the yen. Ueda informed the prime minister that the BOJ is "in a phase of gradually adjusting the degree of monetary easing," seeking a smooth, sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. He later confirmed that Takaichi did not make any specific requests regarding monetary policy.

Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama expressed concern over the yen's movement, stating that the government is "worried" about the recent currency fluctuations and will closely monitor the market for excessive or disorderly movements.

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/JPY pair's breakout above the 100-period moving average on the 4-hour chart last week—followed by a bounce off it—favors the bulls. Moreover, oscillators on both the daily and 4-hour charts remain positive and far from overbought territory, reinforcing the optimistic forecast. To accelerate further upward movement, the cross-rate needs to break above 204.52 and hold above that level. After that, prices may speed up toward the October high around 205.30.

The nearest support for the pair lies at the round level of 204.00. A drop below it would accelerate the decline toward 203.30.

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Trading Signals for BITCOIN for November 18-23, 2025: buy above $90,000 (21 SMA - rebound)

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Bitcoin reached $89,150 after a sharp technical correction following the break of the important support level of $93,750. Bitcoin is recovering some of its losses and is now trading around $91,344. It is likely to continue rising in the coming hours until the price reaches the top of the downtrend channel around $95,600.

If Bitcoin makes a new technical correction, we could expect it to reach support at $89,000 or even reach -2/8 Murray around $87,500.

The outlook remains negative for Bitcoin. Therefore, after a slight recovery, BTC is likely to resume its bearish cycle and could reach $87,500 or even $80,000 in the medium term.

On the contrary, a sharp break above $96,000 could enable a rebound to $100,000.

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Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 18-23, 2025: sell below 1.1606 (200 EMA - 21 SMA)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1587, below the 200 EMA, and below the 21 SMA under bearish pressure. EUR/USD has attempted to break through 1.1600 on several occasions, but without success.

In the coming hours, we could expect a technical correction, and the euro could reach 1.1542 or even the 6/8 Murray around 1.1474.

If EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1606, we expect it to continue rising. So, the price could reach 1.1718 and could even rise above the gap left at about 1.1740 in September.

A key point to keep in mind is 1.1606. Above this area, the outlook will remain positive, while below this area, the euro could find support around 1.1542 or 1.1474.

The indicator is showing a negative signal, so a technical correction is likely in the coming days.

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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 18-23, 2025: buy above $ 4,016 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around 4,041 above the 200 EMA, rebounding after reaching a low of 3,996 during the European session.

Gold managed to cover the gap left at about 4,001 on November 7. Now gold is trying to continue this technical rebound. If gold consolidates above 4,016 in the next few hours, any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to take long positions with targets at 6/8 Murray around 4,062.

If gold breaks decisively in the coming hours and consolidates above 4,062, we could expect it to continue rising until it reaches the 21 SMA located at 4,103 and could even reach 4,200 in the coming days.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we will continue to buy gold in the coming days as long as the price consolidates above the psychological level of 4,000.

A sharp break in consolidation below 4,016 could mean a further downward movement, and the instrument could reach 5/8 Murray around 3,906. A sharp break and consolidation below 4,016 could mean a following upward movement, so gold could reach 5/8 Murray around 3,906.

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Panic on trading floors: Bitcoin's decline and apprehension of reports shake high-tech sector

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The stock market has been shaken again: concerned investors are mass-selling technology stocks, the VIX (the so-called "fear index") is spiking, and traders hold their breath, waiting for another potential Black Tuesday.

This Monday, the stock exchanges showcased far from technological progress; instead, it was more of an emotional regression. The S&P 500 lost 0.92%, closing at 6,672.41. The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.84%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced an even sharper decline of 1.18%.

If you felt a slight anxiety, you are not alone: the VIX volatility index surged by 12.86%, reaching 22.38 – its highest level since October. It became clear: the markets have once again been engulfed by a wave of fears, intensified ahead of the upcoming quarterly reports.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, alarms went off in Asia. On Tuesday morning, the Japanese Nikkei 225 and South Korea's KOSPI both plummeted by about 3%, adding fuel to the global "tech crisis."

Investors are anxiously awaiting tomorrow's third-quarter report from Nvidia: the forecast estimates earnings per share at $1.25 with revenue of $54.8 billion. This represents a 54% and 56% increase compared to the previous year. It seems there are reasons for optimism. But...

Unfortunately, news that the Thiel Macro fund (founded by tech investor Peter Thiel) exited its position in Nvidia entirely in the third quarter, selling off 537,742 shares, has dampened enthusiasm. Additionally, a Japanese institutional giant quietly but decisively parted ways with its $5.83 billion stake in Nvidia this October. It's no surprise that on Monday, shares of the graphics giant fell by 2%.

Another victim of the panic is Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. After Morgan Stanley downgraded the ratings of these stocks due to rising memory prices (and not just in terms of hardware), the companies' shares plummeted by 8% and 7%, respectively. The market seems to hope that investors will have short memories; otherwise, pain may linger for a long time.

Bitcoin was not spared from the drama of Monday. Its price fell below $90,000 on Tuesday for the first time since April 22. This marks an almost 30% drop from the October peak of $126,000. According to the grim logic of the market, this decline is quite explainable: the risks outweigh the rewards, and pessimism is spreading from the crypto sphere to the entire market.

Amid the general nervousness, Amazon managed to score big – $15 billion from its first dollar bond issuance in three years. The success was fueled by fierce investor interest: demand peaked at $80 billion. The new loan will go towards infrastructure and artificial intelligence investments. At least someone continues to believe in a "bright AI future"!

Meanwhile, the European Commission has decided to tighten its oversight of cloud services from Amazon and Microsoft. Although the companies do not formally exceed the established thresholds, regulators want to determine whether they have become "gatekeepers" – in the sense that the clouds belong to them while the rain falls on everyone else.

While most stocks are falling, Alphabet unexpectedly saw a rise – up 3% after news broke that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway acquired 17.9 million shares of the company for $4.3 billion. However, Alphabet's CEO Sundar Pichai dampened the euphoria: on Tuesday, he told the BBC that if the AI bubble bursts, "no company, including us, will be protected." A seriousness bordering on philosophy.

Blue Owl did not fare well either. In pre-market trading, its shares dropped 3%. The reason: it froze buybacks from one of its private credit funds amid an impending merger. Participation in Meta's project to build a data center in Louisiana did not improve the situation; concerns about illiquidity in the private credit space worry investors just as much as Nvidia.

What does this mean for traders?

The current market events present a real feast for experienced traders, especially those favoring short-term strategies. During periods of high volatility, the potential for trading on price fluctuations increases: whether it's shorting Dell shares or the Nasdaq following their decline, or buying options on Nvidia ahead of its report—the opportunities are growing along with the VIX index.

Moreover, such sharp fluctuations serve as a loud signal to "stay alert." Reversals can bring either sudden profits or painful losses.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading tips for crypto market on November 18 (North American session)

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Bitcoin slightly retraced to the $91,000 level, but it seems the decline is not yet over. Until we see a sharp downward momentum and the final liquidation of those who bought Bitcoin at $100,000 with high leverage, it would be inappropriate to talk about a reversal of the bear market.

Meanwhile, while retail traders and investors are panicking, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and BitMine Chairman Tom Lee stated that they consider the current correction in BTC a good buying opportunity and a gift for long-term investors. According to Hougan, Bitcoin's fundamentals remain strong, and the current volatility is just a temporary phenomenon caused by market overheating and profit-taking by major players. Lee adds that institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, and we will see new large investments in this asset in the coming months. They both emphasize that such corrections are a common occurrence in a bull market and that there is no need to panic.

One thing is clear: despite the current correction, Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain quite optimistic. The number of companies and countries recognizing it as a means of savings and payment continues to grow year by year. After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US regulator, it was these funds that drove prices upwards. As soon as money begins to flow back into them, we can expect a new wave of growth in the cryptocurrency market.

As for intraday strategies in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the medium term, which is still very much alive.

Bitcoin

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $92,000, aiming for growth to the $93,500 level. Around $93,500, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower border of $90,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $92,000 and $93,500.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $90,800, aiming for a decline to the $89,200 level. Around $89,200, I will exit my short positions and buy immediately on the dip. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper border of $92,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $90,800 and $89,200.

Ethereum

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $3,075, aiming for growth to the $3,150 level. Around $3,150, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower border at $3,027 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $3,075 and $3,150.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $3,027, aiming for a decline to the $2,950 level. Around $2,950, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the dip. Before selling on a breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper border at $3,075 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the levels of $3,027 and $2,950.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.