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GBP/USD Forecast on December 26, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3533–1.3539, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a decline toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3470. A rebound from this level would allow expectations of a reversal in favor of the British pound and a return to the 1.3533–1.3539 level. A consolidation below the support zone of 1.3437–1.3470 would increase the probability of a continued decline toward the 1.3352–1.3362 level.

The wave situation has once again turned "bullish" after the completion of the sideways movement. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave managed to break the previous peak. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. For a week, bulls and bears were locked in a tug-of-war and remained in relative balance, but a week before the New Year the bulls launched a new offensive.

There was no news background on Wednesday, but December news from the U.S. allowed bullish traders to begin a new advance. Due to the holidays, their momentum and activity have slightly faded, but after the New Year the offensive may resume. Much has already been said about reports on the labor market, inflation, and unemployment, so I will draw traders' attention to the GDP report and the FOMC's monetary policy. As everyone knows, the U.S. economy grew by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, which was significantly higher than market expectations. However, this report provided virtually no support to the dollar. The Fed's monetary policy in January may remain at its current level, but this factor also does not support the bears. In my view, the problem is not that the market fails to see positive factors for the dollar, but that these factors are not actually positive. Economic growth is good when it is accompanied by growth in other economic indicators. In the U.S., however, unemployment is rising, the labor market is weakening, and business activity indices are declining. The fact that the FOMC may leave rates unchanged in January merely indicates that rates will remain unchanged. This is not policy tightening, but simply a pause. Thus, I believe the dollar will continue its downward trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435, which allows expectations of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% — 1.3795. A "bearish" divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, which may trigger a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions increased by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions now stands at roughly 60 thousand versus 135 thousand. As we can see, bears dominated in early December, but the pound appears to have exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is exactly the opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency periodically enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to pursue monetary easing to curb rising unemployment and stimulate the creation of new jobs. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more "dovish" one during the year.

Economic calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 26, the economic calendar contains no events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.3533–1.3539 zone on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3470. If this level is broken, short positions can be held with targets at 1.3437 and 1.3362. I can recommend buying on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level with a target of 1.3533–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

S&P 500 rally: optimism amid uncertainty

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Christmas is a time for predictions. No one has a crystal ball, and Wall Street analysts are attempting the impossible: forecasting the future of the S&P 500 amid geopolitical conflicts, Donald Trump's ambitions to reshape the world, and his influence on the Federal Reserve, all while the broad stock index remains dependent on a small group of large companies. However, as the saying goes, the attempt is not a punishment. According to Piper Sandler, forecasts typically lag actual values by about two months. While specific figures may vary, direction matters.

Dynamics of Forecast Lags Relative to Actual S&P 500 Performance

The consensus estimate among Wall Street experts suggests an 11% increase in the S&P 500 for 2026. At the end of 2024, the broad market index was expected to rise by 9% in 2025, but it actually doubled that, exceeding even the most bullish forecast by 3 percentage points. The bullish projection for the next year stands at 8,000, set by Oppenheimer and Deutsche Bank, based on the assumption of a strong US economy that will drive corporate profits and, along with continued monetary expansion by the Fed, foster a sustained rally in the US stock market.

However, these drivers have largely already been priced into the S&P 500, along with the narrative surrounding artificial intelligence technology. These talking points are being pushed by most Wall Street analysts. When everyone is in the same boat, you don't need a recession to capsize it. Any disappointments regarding corporate earnings or macroeconomic data could trigger a spike in volatility and initiate a correction in the broad market index. Indeed, the gap between the most bullish and most bearish forecasts is just 16 percentage points, marking the smallest difference since 2017.

Dynamics of Bullish and Bearish Forecast Spreads for the S&P 500

Stifel and Bank of America expect the S&P 500 to rise to between 7,000 and 7,100. In more pessimistic scenarios, it could plunge to as low as 5,280. The US economy relies on the wealth effect and capital expenditures in AI technology. A reality check on artificial intelligence could lead to significant sell-offs in the broad market index, overturning the wealth effect and potentially culminating in a recession.

On Christmas, no one wants to be pessimistic. The consensus forecast from Bloomberg experts suggests a 2% expansion of the US economy in 2026. This does not indicate a downturn, so the level of anxiety regarding the US stock market could be reduced. Nevertheless, investors should remain vigilant. In this world, anything is possible.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows a rise in prices for four consecutive trading sessions, with a recovery in the trend and a breakthrough to record peaks. The market is confidently moving toward the pivot levels of 7,000 and 7,100. As long as the broad market index trades above the key support level of fair value at 6,830, a focus on buying should be maintained.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 26: S&P 500 and NASDAQ hit new one-year highs

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.32%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.60%.

Asian stock indices continued their pre-year-end growth amid low trading activity, while gold and silver reached record levels.

The regional MSCI index rose for the sixth consecutive day after the S&P 500 closed at a record high on Wednesday ahead of the Christmas holidays. The global equity index also hit an all-time high. The US dollar slipped slightly, fluctuating around levels seen in October.

Gold and silver prices surged amid heightened geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar, contributing to the ongoing historic rise in precious metal prices. Silver rose for the fifth consecutive session, increasing by 4.5% and surpassing the $75 per ounce mark for the first time. Gold, demonstrating its best annual growth since 1979, climbed by 1.2% to settle above $4,500 per ounce.

Investors who believe in the stock market's growth are pinning their hopes on the so-called "Christmas rally," which they expect will push stocks to new records despite concerns about excessive optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Traditionally, such a rally occurs during the last five trading sessions of the year and the first two in the new year.

Citigroup Inc. stated that as stock markets enter the fourth year of a bull market, their outlook remains positive. They emphasized that current fundamental factors clearly create opportunities for the continued development of major companies, supported by the influence of artificial intelligence.

Risk appetite has evidently increased as the year comes to a close, even though stronger-than-expected economic growth data in the United States has reduced expectations for a quick interest rate cut. Following earlier concerns about inflated valuations of technology stocks amid the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will demonstrate strong profit growth in 2026.

In commodity markets, oil experienced the largest weekly gain since late October, as traders monitored a partial US blockade on oil supplies from Venezuela and reported military strikes by Washington against a terrorist group in Nigeria.

The yen fell by 0.3% and traded around 156.22 against the dollar after inflation in Tokyo decreased more than anticipated. This has led to a weakening of the currency amid assumptions that the Bank of Japan may delay the next interest rate hike.

From a technical perspective, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,930. Achieving this will signal growth and open the door for a rally to a new level of $6,946. An equally critical task for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,961 mark to strengthen their positions. In case of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,914. A break below this level could quickly drive the trading instrument back down to $6,896 and pave the way to $6,883.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.99 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly up from the zero mark, which limited the upside potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Today's news of a decline in Tokyo's consumer price index and a sharp drop in Japan's industrial production weakened the yen's position against the dollar. Data indicating slight deflationary trends and slowing economic growth increased pressure on the Bank of Japan, which recently raised interest rates. Investors now expect that the central bank will likely be more cautious in its next steps, which negatively impacts the yen's attractiveness. The decline in industrial production, especially in key sectors such as automotive and electronics, raised concerns about Japan's export competitiveness. Deterioration of these indicators may lead to a decrease in the trade surplus and, consequently, further weakening of the yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.34 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.74 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.74, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 156.12 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 156.34 and 156.74.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.12 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.65 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell from as high a point as possible. Important! Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 156.34 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.12 and 155.65.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3504 coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved down significantly from the zero mark. A second test at 1.3504 occurred when the MACD was recovering from oversold territory, allowing the realization of Scenario No. 2: buying the pound. However, the pair did not rise as expected.

Today, there are no economic reports for the UK, so trading will remain within the sideways channel. The absence of macroeconomic drivers suggests that the British pound will consolidate against other major currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar and the euro. Market participants will focus on technical levels and minor fluctuations in sentiment rather than fundamental factors. In such conditions, short-term traders may attempt to profit from small fluctuations within the established range, using scalping strategies or trading from the channel boundaries. However, it is important to remember the increased risk of false breakouts due to low liquidity and speculative activity.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3502 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3530 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3530, I intend to exit my long positions and sell back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the entry point. It is unlikely to expect a strong rise in the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3480 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3502 and 1.3530.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3480 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3464 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and also buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may manifest themselves during the correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3502 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3480 and 1.3464.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1793 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair declined by 20 pips.

On Wednesday, the lack of data ahead of the Christmas holidays affected volatility in the currency market. Trading took place within a narrow range but exhibited sharp fluctuations due to low liquidity.

Today is likely to proceed as yesterday did. Buyer activity in the EUR/USD pair during the post-Christmas period and ahead of the upcoming weekend is unlikely to be high. Against this backdrop, low liquidity increases the market's sensitivity to sudden fluctuations. In the absence of significant macroeconomic factors, the focus will primarily be on technical indicators. However, one must understand that the prevailing tendency ahead of the New Year is a wait-and-see approach, so I wouldn't expect strong directional movements.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros at a price around 1.1797 (green line on the chart), with a target of reaching 1.1825. At the 1.1825 level, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be done within the framework of the trend. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1779 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1797 and 1.1825.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1779 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1757, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.1797 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1779 and 1.1757.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to navigate based on overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders need to make decisions about entering the market very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to remain out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 26

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Bitcoin has returned to the $89,000 region today, clearly trying to catch up with the U.S. stock market, which set a new annual high mid-week. Ethereum has also climbed back to the $3,000 mark. However, whether this bullish momentum can be sustained by the end of the week is a complex question.

With the New Year holidays approaching, it's unlikely that traders will engage in anything extraordinary, so I wouldn't anticipate continued bullish trends for Bitcoin above $90,000 or for Ethereum above $3,000. Meanwhile, according to CryptoQuant data, whales have sharply reduced BTC transfers to exchanges. For example, the volume of deposits from large players to one of the largest global cryptocurrency exchanges decreased from $7.88 billion to $3.86 billion in December. This suggests that fewer and fewer people are willing to sell, which is good for the market's bullish prospects.

This significant drop in BTC deposits from large holders on cryptocurrency exchanges is an important indicator of changing market sentiments. A decrease in major investors' willingness to sell their assets indicates increasing confidence in Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market's future. Whales may be revising their investment strategies, considering the long-term potential of BTC and anticipating further growth in its value. However, the reduction in sales could also be linked to growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies and the emergence of new opportunities for holding and managing digital assets without the need for direct sales on exchanges.

Regarding intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the long term, which has not disappeared.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin:

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $89,300, targeting a rise to $90,300. Near $90,300, I will exit my long positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.
• Scenario 2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $88,700 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $89,300 and $90,300.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $88,700, targeting a drop to $87,900. Near $87,900, I will exit my short positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.
• Scenario 2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $89,300 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $88,700 and $87,900.

Ethereum:

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,979, targeting a rise to $3,015. Near $3,015, I will exit my longs and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.
• Scenario 2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $2,958 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $2,979 and $3,015.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $2,958, targeting a drop to $2,934. Near $2,934, I will exit my shorts and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.
• Scenario 2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $2,979 if there is no market reaction upon its breakout, targeting levels at $2,958 and $2,934.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 26

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The euro and British pound have maintained their strength; however, trading for these instruments continues within a range. The USD/JPY pair has also stabilized, and by the end of the week, significant changes are unlikely.

On Wednesday, the pre-holiday lull in economic data led to slight instability in currency trading. Trading across many pairs was conducted within a limited corridor, although it displayed sharp shifts, attributed to a liquidity shortage. It is expected that after the New Year holidays, trading in the currency market will gradually intensify. With the return of market participants and the release of new statistical data, sharp, uncontrollable movements may subside, and price dynamics will become more predictable.

Today promises to be relatively calm, as buyers of EUR/USD are unlikely to make their presence felt after Christmas. Liquidity will remain low, making the market vulnerable to sudden spikes and drops, so traders should exercise particular caution. In the absence of significant drivers, attention will be focused on technical levels and local news.

I'd like to remind you that, currently, in the lead-up to the New Year, a wait-and-see position prevails. Many market participants have already closed their annual positions and prefer not to take risks, fearing unpredictable fluctuations. Trading volumes have significantly decreased, creating additional difficulties for those trying to trade actively.

There are no news releases from the UK today, so a similar situation awaits the British pound.

If the data corresponds with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on breakout above 1.1807, targeting 1.1840 and 1.1882.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1781, targeting 1.1760 and 1.1730.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on breakout above 1.3502, targeting 1.3531 and 1.3561.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3471, targeting 1.3442 and 1.3411.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on breakout above 155.30, targeting 156.68 and 157.05.
• Sell on a breakout below 155.99, targeting 155.67 and 155.32.

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1798, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1775 upon returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3529, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3485 upon returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6727, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6697 upon returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3687, upon a return below this level.
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3663 upon returning to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 26? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Review of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The holidays continue. In the first two trading days of the week, the market showed strong volatility on pre-holiday days; however, we should not expect every day for the remainder of the year to be equally volatile.

Review of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. Governments and central banks are going on holiday for Christmas and New Year, so news will not start coming in until next year. The first interesting events are planned for January 5.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the holiday week, both currency pairs may trade sluggishly. Short-term trends for both currency pairs remain upward, and the market is in full holiday mode. The "thin" market factor may lead to trend movement today, but this can't be predicted. We would expect a flat market today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 26? Simple Tips and Trade Breakdown for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1-Hour Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair moved similarly to the EUR/USD pair on Wednesday. The attempt to continue the upward movement ended without result, and a downward correction began, which is ongoing today. Volatility was ultra-low, but the upward trend is still intact. It can be said that the dollar received minimal support from the U.S. jobless claims report, which came in below forecasts; however, this report is absolutely secondary. In any case, there was virtually no movement throughout Wednesday. Thus, trading shifts to Friday and is likely to continue into next week. From our perspective, the British pound is expected to continue rising at the beginning of 2026, as suggested by nearly all timeframes. The macroeconomic and fundamental background has been absent for the past two days in both the UK and the U.S.

5-Minute Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Wednesday, which novice traders could have capitalized on if they wished. The price bounced twice from the level of 1.3529, which is part of the area 1.3529-1.3543. In both instances, the price moved down by about 20 pips. Today, the decline may continue, but it is unlikely to be strong.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its flat and has once again started moving upwards. We fully support this development, as previously mentioned. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we anticipate movement only to the upside. Overall, we expect the global upward trend to resume in 2025, which could push the pair to the 1.4000 mark in the next couple of months.

On Friday, novice traders can consider new long positions if the price breaks the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3574-1.3590. Short positions will become relevant upon a new bounce from the area of 1.3529-1.3543, targeting 1.3437-1.3446.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently occur at the levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. There are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the U.S. on Friday, and market volatility has decreased following the relatively active Monday and Tuesday. The market is currently "thin," making it easier for market makers to move the price than usual, but this does not automatically mean they want to do so.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 26? Simple Tips and Trade Breakdown for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1-Hour Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair showed minimal movement on Wednesday, declining by about 20-30 pips. Volatility was practically absent as the market geared up for Christmas, with no macroeconomic or fundamental backdrop. The market was closed on Thursday, and trading resumed only tonight. It can be said that the holidays have started, meaning there will be more days off than usual, and volatility may be ultra-low during these days. If the market finds any grounds for trading, predicting possible movements will only be possible based on technical factors. The hourly timeframe continues to show an upward trend, so buy signals are more relevant for execution. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent on Wednesday and Thursday, and will remain absent on Friday.

5-Minute Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal was generated on Wednesday—a bounce from the level of 1.1808. This occurred during the Asian trading session and was profitable, with the price moving down by about 20 pips, which novice traders could have captured. On Friday night, we did not see any interesting movements or trading signals.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon retest the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which marks the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. It is quite possible that this time we will see a breakout from the six-month sideways channel. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the U.S. dollar; thus, we expect the pair to grow in the medium term.

On Friday, novice traders can trade from the 1.1808 level, where the price bounced on Wednesday. A bounce from this level can be viewed as a sell signal, but we are still dealing with an upward trend even in the short term. A breakout of this level will allow for long positions with a target of 1.1851.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider the following levels: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. There are no significant events or reports scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S. today. Thus, we may expect very weak movements.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for Bitcoin on December 26 According to the ICT System

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Bitcoin has also been relatively inactive in recent days. Volatility in the cryptocurrency market has diminished during the holiday season, but the upward correction may be coming to an end. This means that a new decline could start at any moment. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is once again in sideways movement. Within the range, trading opportunities should be sought only near the channel's boundaries. We see that signals have been received only around the upper boundary, two deviations. A deviation formed near the lower boundary could indicate growth potential, but we remind you that we are primarily interested in sell signals, not buy signals. If Bitcoin manages to establish itself below the range soon, we can again consider any "bearish" patterns for short trades.

The market, aside from various "crypto experts" who always predict growth, continues to cool down. It is evident that after three years of growth, it is time for profit-taking, seeking alternative investment tools, and taking a bit of a pause. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a lull right now. It is worth noting that for most of the time, almost any market and instrument is either in correction or flat. Thus, we should expect a trend resumption while waiting for trades at the boundaries of the flat.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the Daily Timeframe

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend, and the correction might be complete. The trend structure is identified as downward; the June "bullish" order block was addressed, the April bullish FVG has been surpassed, and the $84,000 level (38.2% on the Fibonacci retracement), which we highlighted as a target, has been reached. Further, Bitcoin could decline to as low as $60,000, where it began its last ascent. During the last phase of decline, a small bearish FVG was formed, which serves as the only Point of Interest (POI) for new sales. However, Bitcoin has not yet addressed this pattern.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on the 4-Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe, the technical picture also clearly indicates a downward trend, and the price still resides in the updated sideways channel. The CHOCH line (change of character) at the $87,600 level has been broken; therefore, the short-term upward trend has been broken. However, within the flat, local trends do not matter. In the near future, traders can only engage in trading from the boundaries of the channel. Moreover, sell signals are much more attractive than buy signals. Formally, two sell signals have already been generated. Thus, we can still expect a decline toward the lower line of the flat. The latest liquidity grab also indicates a continuation of the downward movement.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin has broken the upward structure on the daily timeframe and is forming a full-fledged downward trend for the first time in three years. The two nearest targets (the bullish OB in the range of $98,000–$102,700 and the bullish FVG) have been addressed, and we should now expect a drop to $70,800 (the 50.0% level on the Fibonacci retracement from the three-year upward trend). The nearest POI for selling includes the closest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, located in the range of $96,800 – $98,000, which Bitcoin has not yet managed to reach. On the 4-hour timeframe, short positions could have been opened near the upper line of the sideways channel after deviations, but there are currently no new signals.

Explanations to Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Break of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop loss of traders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Eventually, price tends to return and react to these areas.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react but breaks through impulsively and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to grab liquidity for forming their own position in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for Ethereum on December 26 According to the ICT System

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Ethereum continues to stay in one place. Bearish prospects remain for the cryptocurrency, but the market is currently in no rush to open new positions. Bitcoin has been trading in yet another flat for about a week, which has caused other cryptocurrencies to remain stagnant as well. There are sufficient "bearish" signals, patterns, and structures across nearly all timeframes to anticipate further declines. There are also some "bullish" warnings, such as a double liquidity grab for buying on the 4-hour timeframe. However, we must remember that any upward movement is merely a correction, and any bullish signal is a signal for correction.

Overall, there is little more to add from a technical perspective regarding Ethereum. The market is turning, but not in a technical sense (the technical reversal already happened a long time ago); it is turning mentally and psychologically. After Bitcoin failed to break its ATHs twice, many realized the upward trend was coming to an end and could not last forever. Even MicroStrategy, which has been heavily investing in Bitcoin in recent years, has paused any new investments in "digital gold." Trading volumes on exchanges are declining, and investors are once again turning their attention to traditional investment instruments. Crypto experts remain divided into two camps. One camp insists on Bitcoin's continued growth (always), while the other believes a bearish trend has begun, with enormous potential for decline. From our perspective, the downtrend for both Ethereum and Bitcoin will continue.

Analysis of ETH/USD on the Daily Timeframe

Ethereum continues to form a downward trend on the daily timeframe. During the crash on "Black Friday," the first of the bullish FVGs was worked out; during "Black Tuesday," the second bullish FVG was addressed; and during the latest decline, the third bullish FVG was activated. The trend structure is currently clear as day and raises no questions. The CHOCH line is at the $3,666 level, which is the last LH (Lower High). As long as the price remains below this level, the downward trend persists. An upward correction may already be over, as Ethereum reached its only unaddressed bearish FVG and received a clear response on the lower timeframe, yet the market is now at a standstill.

Analysis of ETH/USD on the 4-Hour Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe, the upward corrective trend has been broken. The CHOCH line has been surpassed, indicating that the trend for Ethereum is now downward on all timeframes, and primarily bearish signals are being formed. During the last price increase, Ethereum returned to one of its bearish FVGs and got stuck there for several days. Essentially, it can be said that the price responded to this pattern and then dropped to the bullish FVG. The reaction to the bullish FVG could provoke a slight rise, but we must remind ourselves that Ethereum's structure is bearish even on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, any upward movement is merely a correction. There is also a liquidity grab for buying, which enhances the bullish signal from the FVG.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

The downward trend continues to form on the daily timeframe. The key selling pattern is the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. The movement triggered by this signal should be strong and long-lasting. The correction in the cryptocurrency market may be ending. It is not guaranteed that a trend will resume for Bitcoin/Ethereum from the bearish FVG on the daily timeframe, but this area is where it would be reasonable to open short positions. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may start a new decline, but there are currently no sell signals. The drop targets of $2,717 and $2,618 remain relevant; they are just the nearest targets. The potential for a decline in Ethereum is much greater.

Explanations to Illustrations:

• CHOCH – Break of the trend structure.
• Liquidity – Stop loss of traders that market makers use to build their positions.
• FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Eventually, price tends to return and react to these areas.
• IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react but breaks through impulsively and then tests it from the other side.
• OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position to grab liquidity for forming their own position in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. December 26. Technicals, Labor Market, and the Bank of England

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The GBP/USD currency pair did not trade on Thursday due to Christmas celebrations around the world. The market will open this morning and will close again on Friday evening for the weekend. Thus, Friday will be a day when significant movements in the market are unlikely. We already consider Friday another holiday. Nevertheless, 2026 is approaching, and we should determine what to expect.

In essence, all the factors that should drive the euro higher next year are also relevant for the British pound. In the case of the British currency, the age-old mechanism might even work: when the euro appreciates, the British pound also appreciates. Of course, exceptions to this rule do occur, but 80% of the time, both currencies move in the same direction. Therefore, it is possible that the fundamental backdrop for the British pound is not as important as that for the euro or the dollar. For example, unlike the European Central Bank, the Bank of England will continue to ease monetary policy next year. This results in the pound and dollar being, in some ways, on equal footing. However, in practice, this factor may not have much significance.

It is also worth reminding that the pound has corrected much more strongly than the euro in 2025. We have repeatedly pointed out the illogical nature of this movement. The pound was falling for any reason while the dollar should have been the one declining. Therefore, the British currency may now catch up with the European one.

Technically, despite the strong correction in 2025, the daily timeframe shows the upward trend remains intact. Thus, we anticipate its continuation, as the correction lasted a full five months. This is quite sufficient to expect a new wave of the trend. The key factors for the decline of the U.S. currency next year will be: Trump's trade war (and its possible multiple escalations), the Fed's easing monetary policy, and weakness in the U.S. labor market.

As of November, it is hardly accurate to say that the labor market has begun to recover. Yes, we did see a higher figure than in October, but it is important to remind traders that the NonFarm Payrolls figure is not one where any value above 0, above the forecast, or above the prior month's value is automatically positive. To prevent the labor market from declining, it requires 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs each month. Such NonFarm figures help lower the unemployment rate or keep it stable. Therefore, a figure of +60,000 is, as the youth say, "nothing to write home about."

At the same time, the unemployment rate in November rose to 4.6%, and it is currently unclear by how much the Fed's key rate needs to be lowered to bring NonFarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate back to previous levels. Monetary policy does not manifest itself immediately. Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that it requires 6 to 12 months for changes to take full effect. Therefore, a pause at the beginning of the year will be relevant. But thereafter, everything will depend again on the U.S. labor market.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 71 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Friday, December 26, we expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.3433 and 1.3575. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, but this is only due to a technical correction on the higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory six times over the past months and has formed numerous "bullish" divergences, which have consistently warned of a potential resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator formed another bullish divergence, which again warns of a resurgence in growth.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar; therefore, we do not expect the U.S. currency to grow. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3550 and 1.3575 remain relevant for the near term, provided the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small shorts can be considered with targets at 1.3367 and 1.3306 on technical grounds. From time to time, the U.S. currency shows corrections (in a global sense), but for trend strengthening, it needs signs of resolution in the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations to Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are aligned in the same direction, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels represent target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel where the pair will stay over the next day based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator's entry into oversold territory (below -250) or into overbought territory (above +250) signals that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. December 26. The Convergence of ECB and Fed Rates Will Support the Euro

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The EUR/USD currency pair showed no movement on Thursday, as the forex market was closed. However, a holiday is not an excuse to relax; rather, it is an opportunity to conduct a deep analysis. Moreover, with the New Year approaching in just a week, it would be prudent to understand what to expect.

At first glance, everything is clear as day. Technically, on the daily timeframe, the pair continues to oscillate in the range of 1.1400-1.1830 for six months now. In recent weeks, the price has been inching closer to the upper boundary, and we are almost certain that a breakout will happen in the near future. In this case, the global upward trend that began in January 2025 (and can arguably be traced back to 2022) will resume. It is worth noting that over the past six months, the dollar has corrected by 23.6% according to Fibonacci. Thus, there has been essentially no correction. Therefore, if there is no correction, the trend should resume.

From a fundamental perspective, things are a bit more complicated, although they also seem very straightforward at first. In 2025, the dollar fell while ignoring the monetary policies of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Recall that in the first half of the year, the ECB was actively lowering its key rate while the Fed maintained the status quo. Under such circumstances, the euro should have plummeted while the dollar should have risen. However, Donald Trump's policies, particularly the trade war, had their effects. The trade war is expected to continue in 2026, as it seems that no court in the world would dare to declare Trump's tariffs illegal. Even if a miracle occurs and the Supreme Court cancels the tariffs, the White House leader will immediately impose the same tariffs under a different law. Then, a couple of years of new legal disputes will ensue to determine whether Trump had the right to impose tariffs based on the new legislative act. And this cycle could go on indefinitely.

Another important fundamental factor is the convergence of monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. The ECB has reached the "bottom" concerning rates, while the Fed is crawling toward "the bottom." Recently, some members of the Fed's "dovish" wing have stated that the key rate should be 1% lower than its current value. However, we are quite confident that Trump would prefer an even softer monetary policy. In May, Jerome Powell will step down as Fed Chair, and the FOMC will add a new "dove" appointed by Trump. Once the number of "his people" on the FOMC exceeds six, the rate can be lowered to any value. Predicting Trump's actions and desires is akin to reading tea leaves. The current Republican president seems to agree to a rate lower than the present one by 1%, but in a year's time, he might demand a 2% cut. Meanwhile, the ECB will either keep rates unchanged in 2026 or raise them. Hence, ECB and Fed rates will converge in 2026, which favors the euro.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of December 26 is 47 pips, characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1735 and 1.1829 on Friday. The upper channel of the linear regression is turning upwards, but in reality, a flat continues to occur on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory twice in October but visited overbought territory at the beginning of December. A downward pullback is possible, which we are already observing.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1780
• S2 – 1.1719
• S3 – 1.1658

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is positioned above the moving average line, with an upward trend persisting across all higher timeframes, while a flat has continued for the sixth consecutive month on the daily timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop remains crucial for the market and negative for the dollar. Over the past six months, the dollar has shown intermittent weak growth, exclusively within the sideways channel. For long-term strengthening, it lacks fundamental support. If the price is below the moving average, minor shorts can be considered with a target of 1.1698 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1829 and 1.1830 (the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe), which have practically already been targeted. Now we need the flat to conclude.

Explanations to Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are aligned in the same direction, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels represent target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel where the pair will stay over the next day based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator's entry into oversold territory (below -250) or into overbought territory (above +250) signals that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

January Will Be Positive for the Dollar. Is That So? Part 2

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However, the Federal Reserve may decide to keep the interest rate at 3.75%. The main reason is that the central bank wants to give more time for the effects of the 75-basis-point cut to show up in economic indicators. In September, November, and December, the FOMC committee made "dovish" decisions, and in November, the labor market showed the first signs of a recovery. Undoubtedly, this "sick patient" could "flare up" again at any moment. Or perhaps the prescribed treatments may not be enough for recovery. But the Fed's treating physician wants to give the medications more time to have a positive impact on the patient.

As a result, monetary policy parameters will likely remain unchanged in January, regardless of labor market, unemployment, and inflation data. I want to note that the consumer price index has slowed slightly, opening the door for a more significant rate decrease in 2026. However, many economists say November's figure does not reflect the actual pricing situation. In November, many stores and companies held promotions and sales for "Black Friday," which likely affected inflation rates through price reductions.

Will the dollar gain market support if the Fed does not lower the rate? In my view, the absence of a "dovish" decision will not be decisive. The Fed meeting is scheduled for January 28, so for most of the month, the market will trade based on economic data and its own expectations. As we have already established, these expectations are "neutral." It is currently very difficult to expect high figures from U.S. data unless we are talking about artificial growth in the U.S. economy. Other indicators increasingly show results worse than forecasts.

Therefore, at best, demand for the dollar will not decrease even further. The better the reports on the labor market, inflation, and unemployment, the greater the chances for recovery. However, for strong growth, the U.S. currency needs a consistently positive news backdrop, a reversal of the current trend, and global events that may.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The policies of Donald Trump and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 25th figure. The current upward wave pattern is starting to develop, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulse wave set that is part of the global wave 5. In this case, we should expect growth with targets around the marks of 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% on the Fibonacci retracement.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the building of wave 3 or c, with targets around the marks of 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci retracement. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is continuing its formation, and at this time, a fourth attempt to break the mark of 1.3450, which matches 61.8% on the Fibonacci retracement, is being made. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play and often undergo changes.
2. If there is market uncertainty, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

January Will Be Positive for the Dollar. Is That So?

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The next Fed meeting is scheduled for January 28, and market participants are already considering the central bank's decision on rates. By the end of 2025, all market focus will be on FOMC rates. Even reports on the labor market, inflation, and unemployment are viewed through the lens of the rates. The U.S. dollar remains a cornerstone of the global financial system, despite how many countries want to rid themselves of dollar dependency. Perhaps in 50 or 100 years, the world will overcome "dollar addiction," but there is still a long way to go. Therefore, it is entirely justified that most traders and investors primarily monitor the actions of the Federal Reserve rather than those of the Bank of England or the Bank of Japan.

So, it's the holidays, and the market is focused on predicting the next FOMC meeting. I should note that most surveyed economists and investors do not expect a "dovish" decision at the next meeting. The probability of a rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool, is currently only 15%. In my view, this forecast is not worth much, as the focus will be on the reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation for December. It is based on this data that the Fed will make its decision, and Jerome Powell has not given any assurances about taking a pause in January. He merely stated that a pause would be appropriate, but I remind you that in December, the U.S. central bank made its decision while being in a complete information vacuum. The data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation for November were released later.

Therefore, given the current market trend, demand for U.S. currency may continue to decline next month. If we factor in the wave pattern, the dollar may continue to decline next month. Given the current market sentiment on the Fed's interest rate decision in January, the dollar may have a stable month. When it comes to economic data from the U.S., it will again be extremely difficult for the U.S. currency to hold its current position. In my opinion, at least 3 out of 4 factors indicate a continuation of the decline of the U.S. currency.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. The policies of Donald Trump and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 25th figure. The current upward wave pattern is starting to develop, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulse wave set that is part of the global wave 5. In this case, we should expect growth with targets around the marks of 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% on the Fibonacci retracement.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the building of wave 3 or c, with targets around the marks of 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci retracement. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is continuing its formation, and at this time, a fourth attempt to break the mark of 1.3450, which matches 61.8% on the Fibonacci retracement, is being made. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play and often undergo changes.
2. If there is market uncertainty, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

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USD/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. Statements from the Bank of Japan and Geopolitical Tensions Support the Japanese Yen

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On the eve of Christmas, the Japanese yen strengthened against the weakening U.S. dollar, hitting a new weekly high.

Minutes from the Bank of Japan's October meeting revealed that council members actively discussed the possibility of further interest rate hikes. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the risk of renewed conflict between Israel and Iran are contributing to the Japanese yen's strength, as it is considered a safe haven.

The BoJ's position, as it leans towards tightening monetary policy, significantly diverges from the Federal Reserve's expectations of further easing. This has led to a decrease in the dollar's exchange rate to levels observed in early October. At the same time, positive market sentiment is a hurdle for the Japanese yen, helping the USD/JPY pair find support just above the psychological level of 155.00. Nevertheless, fundamental factors favor the bulls for the Japanese yen.

The overall backdrop creates expectations of BOJ interest rate hikes and a flight of investors to safe-haven assets. For instance, the minutes from the BOJ's October meeting indicate that council members agree on the possibility of continuing with rate hikes if macroeconomic forecasts are realized. In December, the central bank raised the rate to 0.75%, reaching a 30-year high, while leaving the door open to further tightening.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies, fell to levels not seen since October amid expectations of two more rate cuts by the Fed in 2026.

According to a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump, any nominee for the Fed chair must guarantee lower rates even with favorable economic indicators. This overshadows the optimistic U.S. GDP growth data published on Tuesday, which indicated a 4.3% year-over-year growth for the July to September period, surpassing expectations. However, this does little to bolster dollar bulls or mitigate the prevailing selling trend.

This week, attention should be focused on the upcoming consumer price index data for Tokyo, scheduled for Friday, which could significantly impact the short-term dynamics of the Japanese currency.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, indicating that bulls in the USD/JPY pair are not ready to give up. However, if prices cannot maintain the current level, it could accelerate the decline toward the round number of 155.00. Yet if prices can return above the round levels of 156.00 and 156.50, the chances of a return to the round number of 157.00 will increase.

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EUR/USD. Christmas Calm and Growth Prospects

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The pre-New Year period in the currency market is typically characterized by two opposing states: either an impassive flat or abnormal volatility. This year, EUR/USD traders have been active: over the last three days, the pair has risen by more than 100 pips and even set a three-month high, reaching 1.1809. A "thin" market is particularly sensitive, provoking abnormal price fluctuations, but in this case, the upward dynamics are not due to this factor. It can be said that the pair is behaving "normally," and objective fundamental reasons explain the price increase.

The EUR/USD pair ended Wednesday at 1.1779, reflecting the buyers' inability to settle above the target of 1.1800, although to confirm the upward trend, they need not only to overcome but also to consolidate above the resistance level of 1.1810 (the upper Bollinger Bands line on both the daily and weekly charts). Sellers took the initiative but could not even approach the intermediate support level of 1.1760, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart. After updating the intraday low to 1.1773, the pair drifted, reflecting indecision among both bulls and bears in EUR/USD.

The immediate reason for the correction was the publication of the Unemployment Claims report. Against the backdrop of a nearly empty economic calendar, this report was the only significant release of Wednesday. The figure came in the green zone, slightly below the forecast. However, the context is important here.

At the beginning of December, this indicator fell sharply, reflecting a 191,000 increase in initial jobless claims. This dynamic was contradictory. On the one hand, Unemployment Claims dropped to an almost eight-month low, below the 200,000 mark for the first time since April. On the other hand, this result could not be called "clean," as the reporting week was short (with Thanksgiving on Thursday and a shortened workday on Friday). Therefore, market participants were skeptical about such an abnormally strong result. And they were right: the following week reflected a 237,000 increase in the indicator (the highest value since early September). The next two weeks needed to show which way the balance would tip—either toward further increases or toward further decreases in the indicator.

Last week, Unemployment Claims dropped to 224,000, and on Wednesday, the indicator came in at 214,000. Thus, in this case, we can talk about the formation of a downward trend. The dollar reacted positively to this fact (especially against the backdrop of a nearly empty economic calendar), recovering some of its lost positions.

Still, bullish sentiment dominates the EUR/USD pair. Looking at the MN timeframe, we will see that the price has been within an upward trend for the second consecutive month. The main reason is the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. While the ECB has taken a wait-and-see stance, the U.S. Fed has begun easing monetary policy. To date, traders anticipate another round of easing at the beginning of next year, specifically at the March meeting.

As for the ECB, "moderately hawkish" sentiments are in the air. Ahead of the December meeting, rumors circulated in the market that the central bank might consider raising interest rates within the next year. Such rumors were not without basis: appropriate signals were issued by ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel. According to her, the next step for the central bank could be to raise interest rates, given the recovery of the eurozone economy, the expansion of fiscal policy, and the stagnation of the core CPI index.

However, following the December meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde took a more cautious stance. At the concluding press conference, she stated that market speculation about interest rate hikes is "unfounded." At the same time, Lagarde made it clear that the baseline scenario for the central bank is to maintain a wait-and-see position.

Thus, the divergence between ECB and Fed rates is a key factor in the EUR/USD pair's growth. U.S. macro data are evaluated through the prism of this factor, either strengthening or weakening the dovish sentiment. For example, the block of macroeconomic data published on Tuesday was interpreted by the market unfavorably for the greenback, despite a 4.3% growth in U.S. GDP. The contradictory structure of this report (a significant contribution from inventories, an increase in government spending, and modest growth in Core PCE), along with the "red tint" of other macroeconomic reports (consumer confidence index, Durable Goods Orders, and manufacturing output), disappointed dollar bulls, leading to pressure on the greenback.

That is why sellers of EUR/USD were only able to organize a modest correction in response to the publication of Unemployment Claims. It is also why downward pullbacks are advisable to use as a reason for opening long positions.

Technically, the pair is located between the middle and upper Bollinger Bands lines on the daily chart, as well as above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which shows a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The main target is the resistance level at 1.1810 (the upper Bollinger Bands line on both the daily and weekly charts). If buyers overcome this target and consolidate above it, the next target for the upward movement will be the 1.1950 mark (the upper Bollinger Bands line on the MN timeframe).

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Yen Declares War

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Don't tempt fate! The strongest government intervention since Sanae Takaichi took office as Prime Minister has seriously frightened the USD/JPY "bulls." Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama chose the right moment to talk about Tokyo's free hands to counter speculators. If Japan were to intervene in the forex market during the thin Christmas market, a sharp strengthening of the yen would be guaranteed. So, isn't it better to stay away from selling the Japanese currency?

Fears about a weak yen outweigh concerns about the increasing cost of servicing colossal debts. As an energy-importing nation, Japan cannot afford USD/JPY at 160 and above. At such an exchange rate, inflation risks accelerating further, and combating inflation is Takaichi's main priority. At the same time, Donald Trump also wants a weaker U.S. dollar. It is not surprising that the government ignored the overnight rate increase to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995.

Given the inadequate surge in USD/JPY in response to tightening monetary policy, the Cabinet has a strong case for intervention. Officials state that the yen's movements on the Forex market do not reflect fundamental realities. Indeed, the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan should narrow bond yield spreads and contribute to a decline in the pair's quotes. However, the charts show a significant divergence, indicating the yen's clear undervaluation.

Dynamics of USD/JPY and the Yield Differential of U.S. and Japanese Bonds

However, there is a view in the market that little depends on the BoJ. The weakening of the yen is a result of investors' doubts about Japan's ability to maintain order in its fiscal house. The rise in local bond yields confirms this. Traders demand a higher risk premium for holding assets from Japan. At the same time, capital outflows contribute to the rise in USD/JPY quotes.

U.S. assets indeed appear more attractive. High inflation in Japan makes real yields on local bonds negative. Moreover, if both the Fed and the BoJ maintain borrowing costs at previous levels, this creates ideal conditions for carry trades and for selling the yen as a funding currency.

As a result, after the Christmas holidays, the government will have to fight the markets. And I fear that without the help of the White House and the Fed, it is doomed to failure. In previous successful interventions, Tokyo showed signs of a weakening U.S. dollar.

Technically, on the daily chart, USD/JPY is forming Double Top and Expanding Wedge patterns. Without a decline in quotes below the line 1-3 near the mark of 154.5, it is premature to talk about a significant pullback. A return above the fair value at 156.3 will be a basis for buying.

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Trading Signals for GOLD for December 25-28, 2025: sell below $4,490 (21 SMA - +1/8 Murray)

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After reaching its all-time high of around $4,528, gold underwent a sharp technical correction to $4,450. From that level, XAU has formed a downtrend channel on the H1 chart, which could indicate that the instrument may find it difficult to continue rising in the coming hours.

If gold consolidates below the 21 SMA located at $4,488, as shown on the H1 chart, we could expect a decline, and it could reach the bottom of the downtrend channel around 4,420 or even reach the 200 EMA around 4,376.

At the beginning of the week, gold left a gap at about $4,339, which is likely to be covered in the coming days, so there is downside potential and an opportunity to take short positions below $4,490.

If gold consolidates above $4,495, we could expect it to reach +1/8 Murray around $4,531. This level could be seen as a signal to open short positions. In turn, the odds are for a double top formation, which would confirm the technical correction.

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Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 25-28, 2025: sell below 1.1780 (21SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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After forming a triple top pattern on the H1 chart, the euro underwent a technical correction, falling below 1.1801 and below the 21 SMA. This suggests that in the coming days, the EUR/USD pair may continue to decline until it reaches the 4/8 Murray level around 1.1718.

The euro is under strong downward pressure after reaching the overbought zone according to the H1 chart. On the chart, we can see a technical correction, and EUR/USD will continue its fall in the coming days until it reaches the 200 EMA, located at 1.1743 and 1.1718.

If the euro resumes its upward cycle, we should expect it to consolidate above the 21 SMA located at 1.1787. In turn, a break above 1.1801 could change the outlook for the euro, and we could expect it to reach 6/8 Murray around 1.1840.

According to the Eagle indicator, the euro is showing a negative signal, so any technical rebound while the price trades below 1.1800 will be seen as a clear signal to sell with medium-term targets around the psychological level of 1.1500.

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Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 25-28, 2025: buy above $87,500 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading at $87,600 above the 2/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA after finding good support around $86,500. This level coincided with the bottom of the uptrend channel, which favors a recovery of the cryptocurrency.

If Bitcoin breaks decisively and consolidates above $87,983, it could be seen as an opportunity to take long positions, with a target at the top of the uptrend channel formed on the H1 chart around $91,000.

If Bitcoin continues to consolidate, we could expect a pullback to the key support level of $86,900. This level could give Bitcoin an upward momentum, and it could resume its bullish cycle.

With a sharp break below the uptrend channel and consolidation below $86,000, BTC could revive its bearish cycle, and the price could reach levels of $83,200 or even the 1/8 Murray around $81,750.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we expect Bitcoin to continue rising in the coming days and it could reach $91,500 or even the 3/8 Murray around $93,750.

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Trading Signals for ETHEREUM for December 25-28, 2025: buy above $2,950 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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Ethereum is trading within a downtrend channel formed on the H1 chart since December 21, below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA under bearish pressure. Ether is forming a consolidation, which could be a sign of a recovery.

If Ether decisively breaks the downtrend channel and consolidates above the psychological level of $3,000 and above the 200 EMA, it could be seen as a clear signal to buy with targets at 2/8 of Murray around $3,125.

Conversely, if Ether fails to break the downtrend channel, we could expect a resumption of the decline, and it could reach 1/8 Murray around $2,812.

From our perspective, Ether will continue its rise as the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. We should expect a break of the downtrend channel and a consolidation above $2,950, then we could open long positions with targets at $3,026 and $3,125.

On the contrary, Ether could fall more sharply and deeper if it breaks below $2,800 in the coming days, then the outlook could be negative and it could reach the psychological level of $2,500.

The outlook will be positive for ETH/USD if consolidates above $3,000 in the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crypto market: preliminary results of 2025 and prospects for next year

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The crypto market is currently experiencing a downtrend that began to intensify in mid-October.

While major financial markets are closed for Christmas, the cryptocurrency market is still operating, though trading activity is minimal. The downward trend that started in mid-October persists. While gold, silver, and stock market assets are setting record after record, the crypto market has entered a phase of free fall.

Investors appear to be overlooking market expectations regarding further monetary policy easing by the Fed, the weakening dollar, and Donald Trump's promises to make the US "the crypto capital of the world," create a strategic Bitcoin reserve, lift regulatory restrictions, and generally support the industry.

Federal Reserve The CME FedWatch tool estimates the probability of rate cuts in 2026 at about 70%, and market participants have priced in two cuts despite positive economic reports. President Donald Trump stated on social media that critics of his policies and desire for lower interest rates will not be able to lead the Federal Reserve. White House advisor Kevin Hassett also noted that the Fed is not cutting rates quickly enough amid stronger-than-expected economic growth. Meanwhile, members of the Fed leadership, including board member Stephen Miran, a proponent of lower rates, indicate a gradual reduction of disagreements regarding future rate cuts.

Trump Overall, Donald Trump's return to power in the US has resulted in significant changes in financial markets in 2025. Trump's unpredictability has led to unprecedented uncertainty, impacting investor sentiment and creating a complex environment for market analysis. One of the key aspects has been the policy of imposing mass tariffs on goods and services entering the US. This has affected nearly all trading partners and resulted in significant changes in the economy and trade, directly impacting the financial sector.

By positioning himself as a strong supporter of the crypto industry during the 2024 election campaign, Donald Trump sparked a sharp surge in Bitcoin buyer activity following his victory in November 2024. The BTC/USD exchange rate soared from $70,000.00 to $126,000.00 by October 2025.

However, the price subsequently fell for the remainder of 2025, while some altcoins plummeted significantly. For instance, let's consider two of the top-10 popular altcoins, Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA). Each employs its own approach to market positioning, reflecting different growth and sustainability strategies.

Some ideas about altcoins

1. Dogecoin (DOGE): Originally started as an internet joke, Dogecoin has become one of the most recognizable meme coins. Initially conceived as a satirical take on cryptocurrency trends, its rapid rise can largely be attributed to its dedicated followers and intermittent support from high-profile figures like Elon Musk on social media. Despite significant volatility, Dogecoin's mass popularity and network effect have allowed it to remain among the leading assets, continually attracting investor interest.
2. Cardano (ADA): Founded in academic circles, the blockchain platform Cardano is focused on smart contract development. Its robust infrastructure appeals to long-term investors seeking reliability and scalability over immediate profits. Although real-world application adoption has lagged behind initial forecasts, Cardano retains a loyal audience among the top cryptocurrencies.

Looking back at the same period and the time when Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market began their fall in the autumn-winter season, in just three incomplete months from mid-October to the still-ongoing December, DOGE (in the DOG/USD pair) depreciated by 2.25 times, dropping from an October local maximum of 0.2700 to a December low near 0.1200. ADA (in the ADA/USD pair) fell from an October peak of 0.8915 to a December minimum around 0.3460, depreciating by 2.57 times.

Today, during the festive Christmas period and with minimal trader activity at the time of this article's publication, the DOG/USD pair traded near 0.1263, slightly rising from an intraday low of 0.1257, while the ADA/USD pair was near 0.3500, 10 pips above its intraday minimum of 0.3490. Both cryptocurrency pairs are moving within the zone of a long-term bear market toward their minimum values since their release and entry into the market.

Overall, 2025 can likely be characterized as quite controversial, extremely volatile, and turbulent, following a different trajectory from the typical stock market dynamics.

For the upcoming year of 2026, cryptocurrency market experts outline three main scenarios:

1. Base case (most likely): Stabilization of volatility as institutional capital flows in and regulatory improvements take shape. Bitcoin and major altcoins maintain their leading positions, while DeFi grows through L2 solutions and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). Periodic corrections remain frequent.
2. Rapid growth (optimistic): A favorable regulatory ecosystem and large-scale asset tokenization attract significant institutional capital, leading to rapid market capitalization growth and increased real-world use of crypto technologies in payments and finance.
3. Constrained (pessimistic): Strict regulatory measures in key economies, major hacks, or failures of systemic projects lead to liquidity outflows and significant corrections. Technological and regulatory barriers hinder mass adoption. Bitcoin and most altcoins continue to decline.

What should be monitored in 2026?

1. General for investors:

• Volumes and inflows into spot and futures ETFs.
• Changes in the share of stablecoins in market circulation (a measure of liquidity inflow/outflow).
• Adoption of regulations on stablecoins and tokenized securities in the U.S., EU, and China.
• Macroeconomic indicators: inflation, central bank rates, and risk dynamics in traditional markets.
• 2. Additionally, for more in-depth analysis by specialists:

• Adoption rates of L2 and zk solutions (number of transactions, fees, UX metrics).
• On-chain metrics: addresses with positive balances, smart contract activity, total value locked (TVL) in DeFi.

Practical recommendations for investors (not investment advice, but general principles):

• Diversification: A combination of "core" assets (BTC, ETH) and carefully selected promising projects.
• Risk management: Determine the limit of drawdown, use positions of adequate size, and establish a stop-loss plan.
• Stay updated on regulatory news and prepare a response plan in the event of tightened requirements.
• Evaluate projects based on real-world usage, team quality, security standards, and token economics.

Conclusion By 2026, the crypto space is likely to be more integrated into the global financial system, with improved infrastructure, a clearer regulatory environment, and more significant participation from institutional investors. However, risks will remain high: technological vulnerabilities and regulatory shifts may cause sharp fluctuations. The success of the market will depend on how well participants can combine innovation with a responsible approach to security and regulatory compliance.

The year 2026 will likely mark an important stage in the development of the crypto market, characterized by a high level of uncertainty and, at the same time, significant profit opportunities. Key growth drivers include improved regulation, technological advancement, and increased trust from institutional investors.

Nevertheless, investors face serious challenges related to price volatility and the need for thorough risk analysis. It is essential to remember that success in the cryptomarket requires a deep understanding of the unique characteristics of each specific cryptocurrency and the ability to respond promptly to changes in market conditions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.