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Stock market on November 20: S&P 500 and NASDAQ halt their slide

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Yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.10%.

Stocks surged after a confident earnings forecast from Nvidia Corp. eased concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry, which had recently unsettled markets worldwide. Nvidia's shares jumped by 5% during trading after the earnings report was released, driving up the stocks of other AI-focused companies. S&P 500 futures rose by 1.2%, and contracts on the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.8%, as the easing of a key risk factor improved sentiment following a week of instability. Shares of Alphabet Inc. soared after a wave of positive reviews for the recently released version of its AI model, Gemini.

Asian indices also returned to growth for the first time in five days: Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed by 2.5%, and South Korea's Kospi, the symbol of the AI boom and one of the fastest-growing markets in the world this year, gained 2.9%. Bitcoin rose to $92,000. Treasury bonds stabilized after a slight decline in the previous session, as expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished in light of unfavorable labor market outlooks.

Nvidia's strong performance helped restore a fragile calm after a week of active selling in tech stocks, as Wall Street grew concerned about inflated valuations and massive expenditures on AI infrastructure. Another key focus for investors is interest rate dynamics, as markets eagerly await the release of the September employment report, which will be published today.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that it would not release the October employment report but would include wage data in the November statistics, which would be published after the last Fed meeting of 2025, scheduled for December.

As a result, the Fed is left without key economic data ahead of its final meeting this year. There is now an increasing likelihood that policymakers will maintain the key interest rate at 3.75-4%. The minutes from the October Fed meeting indicated just that. Many members of the central bank stated that it would likely be prudent to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2025.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the primary task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,727. This would help the index gain ground and open the possibility for a move to a new level of $6,743. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,756 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,711. A break below would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,697 and open the way to $6,682.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold Stalls While Rising

.Gold has stabilized after two days of gains as traders reevaluate expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut next month. Following an increase of nearly 1% over the previous sessions, the price of gold has declined. Higher interest rates generally increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. After yesterday's FOMC minutes indicated a pause in the ongoing rate-cutting cycle, traders lowered the likelihood that the Fed would make any changes by the end of the year.

The strength of the U.S. dollar is also influencing gold's dynamics. A stronger dollar typically puts pressure on gold prices, making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Given that the U.S. dollar index has shown resilience lately—linked to a reassessment of expectations regarding Fed policy—the decline in gold isn't surprising.

Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including inflation and employment figures, which could provide additional clues regarding the trajectory of Fed interest rates. However, with the October employment report not being published, this places Fed members and traders in a challenging position. The October data will be released alongside the November report, which will come out after the final FOMC meeting of the year.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the October meeting indicated that many officials likely deemed it appropriate to keep rates unchanged until the end of 2025.

It's worth noting that gold has risen significantly this year, gaining over 50% and reaching record levels in October. This increase has been supported by two previous rate cuts by the Fed, as well as heightened purchases of gold by central banks and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to conquer the nearest resistance at $4124. Achieving this will allow targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,249. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control below $4,062. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a significant blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,008, with the potential to reach $3,954.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on November 20

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Bitcoin recovered after hitting a new monthly low of around $88,700 yesterday. Ethereum is also attempting to establish itself above the $3,000 mark.

The sharp rise in the U.S. stock market pulled the cryptocurrency market along with it. The focus yesterday shifted to Nvidia Corp.'s earnings report and forecast. After the release of strong figures, traders revised their positions, easing concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry that had recently stirred markets worldwide.

As the flagship of digital assets, Bitcoin rose, pulling altcoins along with it. Investors felt a renewed sense of confidence, and risk appetite significantly increased. However, caution remains in the market. Some experts warn against excessive optimism, pointing out that one successful report does not guarantee sustained growth, a statement that is hard to dispute.

In the coming days, attention will focus on additional economic data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. These factors could alter the current market dynamics and determine its further direction. It's important to remember that, despite their integration with traditional finance, cryptocurrencies remain volatile assets.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to base my actions on significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the expectation of a bullish market developing in the medium term.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $93,200, targeting a move to $95,000. At $95,000, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also occur from the lower boundary at $91,800, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $93,200 and $95,000.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $91,800, targeting a drop to $90,100. At $90,100, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can occur at the upper boundary of $93,200, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $91,800 and $90,100.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,062, targeting a move to $3,134. At $3,134, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also occur from the lower boundary at $3,008, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $3,062 and $3,134.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,008, targeting a drop to $2,941. At $2,941, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can occur at the upper boundary of $3,062, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $3,008 and $2,941.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.09 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy dollars and missed a good upward movement.

The Japanese yen fell to a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar following the release of the FOMC minutes from October. Traders saw clear indications that the Federal Reserve might pause rate changes later this year, which strengthened the dollar's position. As USD/JPY rose sharply, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda indicated the possibility of a rate hike at the December meeting, emphasizing the need for normalization, but the yen did not respond.

The market seemed to ignore the explicit signal, continuing to focus on global factors, particularly expectations for the Fed's policy. It is clear that for a substantial strengthening of the yen, more convincing evidence of the BoJ's readiness for aggressive normalization is needed, as well as a weakening of the U.S. dollar, which currently seems unlikely. Nevertheless, Koeda's comments highlight the growing pressure on the BoJ. Inflation in Japan consistently exceeds the target level of 2%, and the weakening yen adds to the pressure on households and businesses due to rising import prices. The question is whether the BoJ can find the optimal time and pace for raising rates to avoid negatively impacting economic growth. The upcoming December meeting will be a key indicator of the BoJ's future actions. If the central bank indeed decides to raise rates, this could trigger a sharp yen strengthening and a revaluation of assets denominated in yen. Otherwise, the market may interpret this as a sign of indecision and continue to ignore verbal interventions.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches an entry point around 157.76 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 158.36 (thicker green line on the chart). At 158.36, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.24 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.76 and 158.36.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaches 157.24 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.70 level, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25-pip move against the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.76 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.24 and 156.70.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3103 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's bearish potential. The second test at 1.3103 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, prompting trade #2 to buy the pound, which resulted in a loss as the anticipated rise did not materialize.

The appreciation of the dollar and the decline of the pound came after it became clear that many Federal Reserve officials consider it prudent to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. The minutes strengthened the dollar's position against other major currencies, as investors revised their expectations for the timing and scale of future interest rate cuts in the U.S. Earlier, the market had expected a more aggressive easing of monetary policy by the end of the year. However, now, given the Fed's more conservative stance, confidence is growing that the dollar will retain its appeal as a relatively high-yielding currency.

Today, the only economic report will be the CBI Industrial Order Balance from the Confederation of British Industry. The market will certainly focus on the CBI report as the only source of an up-to-date view of the state of British industry. Experts predict a slight improvement in this indicator, which could lead to a temporary recovery of the pound, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the current bearish market. Other factors, such as news on the budget from Rachel Reeves, may have a more significant impact on the pound's exchange rate.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches an entry point around 1.3063 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3092 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3092, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the pound can be anticipated only with very good data today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3046 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3063 and 1.3092.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3046 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3008 level, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from there. Sellers of the pound will reveal themselves with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3063 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3046 and 1.3008.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros and missed a good downward movement of the pair.

Yesterday's publication of the FOMC minutes from the October meeting indicated that most Federal Reserve officials lean towards keeping interest rates unchanged by the end of this year. Overall, the divergence of opinions within the Fed suggests ongoing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy. It is essential to continue monitoring new statements from Fed representatives and incoming data to evaluate potential scenarios and adjust decisions as conditions change. However, the likelihood of further dollar strengthening remains, especially if the Fed continues its hawkish rhetoric.

Upcoming data includes the German Producer Price Index, the Bundesbank's monthly report, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index. The dynamics of producer prices in Germany will reflect inflation processes in the production sector. Analyzing this index will help understand how much company profits are currently constrained and how this may affect the prices of goods and services for the population. This indicator is closely studied by both the European Central Bank and traders to forecast inflation trends in the Eurozone. The regular report from the Bundesbank traditionally includes an in-depth analysis of the current economic situation in Germany, key forecasts, and an assessment of potential risks. This document is a vital information resource for economists and analysts, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the leading economy in the Eurozone. The commentary on growth prospects, inflation, and monetary policy is particularly significant.

The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index serves as a key indicator of consumer sentiment. It reflects consumers' expectations about the future state of the economy, employment, and personal financial conditions. An increase in this index will strengthen the euro, while a weak reading may place pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

• Scenario #1: A buy opportunity may arise if the price reaches around 1.1597 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1625. At 1.1625, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be anticipated only after positive reports. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1578 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1597 and 1.1625.

Sell Scenarios:

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1578 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1546, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25-pip move against the level). Pressure on the pair will return once critical support levels are breached. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1597 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1578 and 1.1546.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Looking at all the technical indicators, #USDX on the 30-minute chart indicates strengthening conditions, therefore on Thursday,

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[#USDX]

With both EMAs condition forming a Golden Cross and the RSI indicator positioned in the Extreme-Bullish area, along with the appearance of a Hidden Bullish Divergence, today #USDX has the potential to strengthen.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 100.67

2. Resistance. 1 : 100.39

3. Pivot : 99.92

4. Support. 1 : 99.64

5. Support. 2 : 99.17

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #USDX breaks out and closes above 100.39, there is potential to move toward 100.67.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 100.67 is successfully broken and closes above it, the level 101.14 may be tested.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of #USDX declines and breaks down below 99.17.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 99.87

EMA(200): 99.59

RSI(14) : 72.21 + Hidden Bullish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the United States session, several important economic data will be releases, such as:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative

US - Existing Home Sales - 22:00 WIB

US - CB Leading Index m/m - Tentative

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With the appearance of a Hidden Bullish Divergence on the RSI, #NDX has the potential to strengthen today. Thursday, November

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[#NDX]

Although both EMAs are still in a Death Cross condition, but with the appearance of a Hidden Divergence between the #NDX price movement and the RSI at the Extreme-Bullish level suggests that there is significant potential for strengthening today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 25265.2

2. Resistance. 1 : 25069.2

3. Pivot : 24717.0

4. Support. 1 : 24530.0

5. Support. 2 : 24177.8

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks above 25069.2, #NDX has the potential to rise to 25265.2.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 25265.2 is successfully breached, then #NDX may test the level 25608.4.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of #NDX declines and breaks down below 24177.8.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 24705.1

EMA(200): 24845.3

RSI(14) : 70.34 + Hidden Bullish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the United States session, several important economic data will be releases, such as:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative

US - Existing Home Sales - 22:00 WIB

US - CB Leading Index m/m - Tentative

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 20. The Pound Has Fallen

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Several suitable entry points into the market were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3138 level and planned to base my trading decisions on it. A decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.3138 provided an entry point to buy the pound, but after a rise of only 10 pips, demand quickly waned. In the second half of the day, a false breakout in the area of 1.3111 led to short positions, resulting in the pound falling by more than 60 pips.

Long Positions for GBP/USD

The pound has lost all its positions, dropping below the lower boundary of the sideways channel it occupied all week. The decline occurred after it became clear that many Federal Reserve officials consider it appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. Today, only data regarding the CBI Industrial Order Balance is expected from the UK. However, even good data is unlikely to help the pound rise, so exercise caution when buying. If the pair continues to decline, only a false breakout around support at 1.3038, formed during morning trading, will provide an opportunity to open long positions targeting a recovery to resistance at 1.3073. A breakout and reverse test of this range would confirm the right actions for buying pounds, potentially leading to a move toward 1.3100. The furthest target will be last week's high at 1.3126, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no buying activity around 1.3038, pressure on the pair will increase, likely driving it toward the next support level at 1.3013. Only a false breakout there will provide a suitable condition for buying the pound. Long positions may also be opened on a rebound from the low of 1.2974, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30-35 pips.

Short Positions for GBP/USD

Sellers made their presence felt yesterday, leading to the formation of a new bearish trend. However, to confirm it, bears must show themselves today around the nearest resistance at 1.3073. A false breakout there will be sufficient to justify selling the pound, targeting a move to support at 1.3038. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a reverse test from bottom to top, will provide another suitable option for opening short positions toward 1.3013, reinforcing the bearish trend. The farthest target will be the 1.2974 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD rises and there is no active bear action around 1.3073, buyers will get a chance for a larger upward move, potentially leading to a surge toward 1.3100, where the moving averages favor sellers. I plan to open short positions there only after a failed consolidation. If there is no downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3132, targeting a 30-35-pip downward correction.

Recommended for Review:

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published; the last available report dates back to September 23.

In the COT report for September 23, short positions decreased and long positions increased. Pressure on the dollar continues—especially following the latest data, which is likely to compel the Federal Reserve to maintain its path of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's policy remains cautious, indicating its clear plans to continue fighting inflation, although this has not provided much confidence to pound buyers lately.

The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be influenced by new fundamental data. The last COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions increased by 3,704 to 84,500, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 912 to 86,464. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 627.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is currently below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating a decline in the pound.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, support will come from the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3015.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 50. Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 30. Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 20. The Dollar Has Triumphed

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Several suitable entry points into the market were formed yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1584 level and planned to base my trading decisions on it. A decline and the formation of a false breakout around 1.1584 provided an entry point for buying euros, but after a 10-pip rise, demand quickly waned. In the second half of the day, an unsuccessful attempt to break above 1.1584 led to euro selling, resulting in a decline of more than 40 pips.

Long Positions for EUR/USD

The euro has lost ground and dropped below the lower boundary of the sideways channel it had occupied all week. The decline occurred after it became evident that many Federal Reserve officials believe it is appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. Today, pressure on the pair may only increase. We are looking ahead to the Producer Price Index data for Germany, the monthly Bundesbank report, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Indicator. Weak indicators will trigger a new wave of selling for EUR/USD, which I intend to take advantage of. I expect the first signs of buyers only around support at 1.1494. A false breakout at that level will provide an entry point for long positions targeting a recovery toward resistance at 1.1521, below which trading is currently taking place. A breakout and reverse test of this range will confirm the correct action for buying euros, anticipating a larger surge toward 1.1541. The furthest target will be last week's high at 1.1564, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD continues to decline and there is no activity at 1.1494, pressure on the pair will increase, potentially leading to a larger sell-off. Sellers will likely reach the next interesting level at 1.1472. Only the formation of a false breakout there will provide a suitable condition for buying euros. Long positions may also be opened on a rebound from 1.1433, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30-35 pips.

Short Positions for EUR/USD

Sellers continue to exert pressure on the euro, and a breakout from the sideways channel has only intensified the pressure on the pair. If the euro rises after the Eurozone data, the initial task for bears will be to defend the 1.1521 resistance level. A false breakout at that level will provide an entry point for short positions targeting a move to support at 1.1494. A breakout and consolidation below this range, alongside a reverse test from bottom to top, will provide another suitable option for opening short positions toward the 1.1472 area, reinforcing the bearish trend. The farthest target will be the 1.1433 area, where I will take profits. In the case of an upward move in EUR/USD without active bearish action around 1.1521, it is best to postpone short positions until a larger level at 1.1541. Selling will only occur after a failed consolidation there. I plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.1564, targeting a 30-35-pip downward correction.

Recommended for Review

Due to the U.S. government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published; the latest available data is from September 23. The COT report indicated an increase in short positions and a decrease in long positions. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to exert pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, the number of euro buyers has not increased, as political issues in France and risks of a new inflation surge compel the European Central Bank to act more cautiously, slowing economic growth. In the COT report, non-commercial long positions decreased by 789 to 252,472, while short positions increased by 2,625 to 138,625. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 873.

Indicator Signals

Moving Averages: Trading is below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further declines for the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, support will come from the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1500.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 50. Highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period – 30. Highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes, meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 20

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The euro, pound, and Japanese yen have all fallen against the dollar.

On Wednesday, the U.S. released the minutes from the October FOMC meeting, where many Federal Reserve officials indicated that it would likely be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. This led to active dollar purchases and a weakening of various risk assets. However, this decision may be revisited depending on incoming economic data, particularly the November and December reports on inflation and employment. If inflation continues to decline along with the labor market, the Fed may reconsider lowering interest rates, which would weaken the dollar.

Today, we will see the Producer Price Index (PPI) for Germany, the monthly Bundesbank report, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index. The German PPI reflects production inflation and can signal potential changes in consumer prices. However, significant deviations from economists' predictions are not expected. The Bundesbank's monthly report traditionally provides a detailed analysis of the current economic situation in Germany, making it a valuable source of information for economists and financiers regarding the largest economy in the Eurozone. The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index is also an important gauge of consumer sentiment.

For the pound, today will bring only the CBI Industrial Order Expectations report, which will provide a fresh picture of the UK manufacturing sector. Analysts forecast a slight improvement; however, it is essential to keep in mind that a single indicator cannot serve as a reliable predictor for long-term forecasts. Traders should exercise caution and consider a wide range of factors in their decision-making—especially in light of recent confusion surrounding the UK budget, which will be presented in less than a week.

If the data matches economists' expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy will be the best approach. If the figures significantly exceed or fall short of expectations, the Momentum strategy should be used.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout at 1.1521, which could lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1541 and 1.1564.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1500, which could lead to a decline toward 1.1480 and 1.1460.

For GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout at 1.3065, which could lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3075 and 1.3100.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3035, which could lead to a decline toward 1.3000 and 1.2975.

For USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 157.70, which could lead to a rise in the dollar toward 158.00 and 158.25.
• Sell on a breakout below 157.35, which could lead to a decline toward 157.00 and 156.65.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For EUR/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1540, on a retracement below this level.
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1500, on a retracement back to this level.

For GBP/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3075, on a retracement below this level.
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3032, on a retracement back to this level.

For AUD/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.6498, on a retracement below this level.
• Buy after a failed breakout below 0.6474, on a retracement back to this level.

For USD/CAD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.4067, on a retracement below this level.
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.4035, on a retracement back to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on November 20? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but this data could trigger a "bombshell" in the currency market. Today, the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate for September will be released, and although this data is frankly outdated, there is no doubt the market will react to it with double strength. We continue to observe that when the euro or pound begins to rise, it lasts for only a very short time, and these currencies rise very reluctantly. On the other hand, when the dollar starts to rise, it cannot be considered strong either, but it is more confident than the growth of the euro or the pound. The market continues to favor the U.S. currency, despite there being very few reasons for it.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

A few fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday. Additional speeches from FOMC representatives Harker, Goolsbee, and Cook will take place. However, we are already 100% familiar with the Federal Reserve's monetary committee's position on the key rate. They aim to keep the rate unchanged in December, but the final decision will be made after the labor market and unemployment data for September, October, and November, as well as inflation data for at least October, are available. Thus, speculating about what decision the Fed might make on December 10 will not be possible until early December.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs could show any movements, as the macroeconomic backdrop will be very strong today. The euro has a great trading area at 1.1527-1.1531. The British pound at 1.3043. However, good technical signals may form in the first half of the day, while in the second half, both pairs may move in opposite directions, disregarding technical analysis.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on November 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Wednesday Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair also moved lower on Wednesday. It should be acknowledged that the British pound had reasons for its new decline, as it has been continuously bombarded with negative information from the UK. Last week, it became known that unemployment had risen significantly, industrial production had declined, and GDP had declined. Additionally, it was announced yesterday that UK inflation slowed to 3.6%, giving the Bank of England the green light to lower the key rate at its December meeting. Thus, the global fundamental background remains sharply negative for the dollar, while the local context repeatedly provokes declines in the British pound. On the hourly timeframe, we again did not see a full-fledged upward trend, despite the breakthrough of the descending trend line. However, this pattern has persisted for several months. Today brings Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment data, which could send the pair down another 100 pips under the right conditions.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Initially, the price bounced off the 1.3096-1.3107 area but failed to move up by even 15 pips. Then the area was breached, and the price reached 1.3043, allowing novice traders to earn around 30-40 pips. A buy signal finally formed at 1.3043, but it materialized late, almost at night.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has breached the trendline and resumed its decline. As we can see, even from a technical perspective, the pair's movements are hardly logical. As mentioned, there are no global grounds for prolonged dollar growth, so in the medium term, we expect only upward movement. However, the correction/flat on the daily timeframe is not yet complete, and the local macroeconomic backdrop continues to weigh on the British pound.

On Thursday, novice traders should look for new trading signals around the level of 1.3043. A price bounce from this level will allow for long positions targeting 1.3096-1.3107, while a consolidation below it will make short positions relevant with a target of 1.2993.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Thursday, there are no important events or reports planned in the UK, while the U.S. will release super-important reports on the labor market and unemployment. Therefore, strong movements should be expected in the second half of the day.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on November 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Wednesday Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair plummeted in the second half of Thursday, dropping sharply. The first question that comes to mind is: why? Let's take a look at the economic calendar. In the morning, the Eurozone published the second estimate of October inflation, which matched the first estimate and the forecasts. In the evening, the FOMC minutes were released, which have always been considered formalities. The rise of the U.S. dollar and the decline of the pair began precisely between these two events. Simply put, the dollar started to appreciate when the U.S. trading session opened, not after the release of the inflation report or the minutes. Thus, once again, it isn't possible to tie the pair's movement to any event. The U.S. dollar appreciated seemingly out of nowhere, at a time when its decline would have been much more logical. The flat on the daily timeframe persists, which is why illogical movements persist on the lower timeframes. Overall, we saw nothing new or surprising yesterday.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Initially, the pair seemed to bounce off the 1.1584 level, but it couldn't move up by even 10 pips after that. Then, a sell signal formed in the 1.1571-1.1584 area, which proved correct. This allowed opening short positions, resulting in a profit of about 35 pips. Overall volatility for the day remained low.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is once again declining and may be forming a new downward trend. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the U.S. dollar, so the Euro could still fall, primarily on technical factors—the flat on the daily timeframe remains relevant. However, we anticipate its completion and a resumption of the upward trend in 2025, though there may also be upward swings within the flat.

On Thursday, novice traders can trade from the 1.1527-1.1531 area. If the price consolidates above this area, long positions can be opened targeting 1.1571. Conversely, if the price consolidates below the 1.1571-1.1584 area, short positions will be relevant with a target of 1.1474.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the levels 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Thursday, there are no significant events planned in the Eurozone, while reports that the market has been waiting for a month and a half—Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate—will be released in the U.S. Thus, we are likely in for some "flights" in the second half of the day.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. November 20. Finally! What Surprise Are the Non-Farms Preparing?

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The GBP/USD currency pair traded slightly more actively on Wednesday than it has in most cases over the past few months, and there is a clear reason for this—the UK inflation report. We'll discuss that report shortly, but for now, it can be said that, globally, it had no significant impact. A downward correction continues on the daily timeframe, and the market continues to ignore all factors that are against the U.S. dollar. Today, the macroeconomic backdrop will be much more important. At first glance.

After a 2.5-month hiatus, the U.S. unemployment and Non-Farm Payrolls reports will be released today. Immediately, a question arises—how relevant will this data be? Simply put, we are now receiving September data, as late November has arrived. The next Federal Reserve meeting will take place in December. The Fed's decision to lower the key rate in September could not have had any impact on the labor market, as too little time has passed. The Fed's decision in December will depend on the next Non-Farm and unemployment reports for October and November. So why do we care about the September reports at all?

Furthermore, we might question how relevant the October data will be, given that many government agencies were on leave due to the "shutdown" in the U.S. The Bureau of Labor Statistics may attempt to collect some data, but its accuracy will likely leave much to be desired. It turns out that both the September and October reports hold little significance. The Fed will rely on November data, which will be published in early December—assuming there isn't another "shutdown" by then. And with Donald Trump, anything is possible.

However, it cannot be said that the market will simply ignore the American data today. Most likely, the reaction will be similar to that to the UK inflation report—a sharp spike in volatility followed by a quick calm, as these data will not have any long-term consequences. Interestingly, the U.S. dollar may even rise significantly today. For this to occur, the unemployment rate must remain at 4.3%, and the number of Non-Farms for September must exceed 50,000.

Let's recall that 50,000 is very low. A normal figure is 150,000-200,000 new jobs each month. Such a number can offset layoffs during the same period and keep unemployment steady. However, the market will react not to the 150,000-200,000 range, but to whether the actual number aligns with the forecast. Therefore, any value above 50,000 will be considered "minimal," but it may provoke a rise in the U.S. dollar. This is quite the paradox.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days amounts to 83 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Thursday, November 20, we expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.2990 and 1.3156. The upper channel of the linear regression is downward-sloping, but only due to a technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area for the fifth time, warning of a potential resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3062
• S2 – 1.2939
• S3 – 1.2817

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3184
• R2 – 1.3306
• R3 – 1.3428

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume its upward trend for 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the American currency to appreciate. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3306 and 1.3428 remain relevant in the near term, provided the price remains above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered with a target of 1.2990 on technical grounds. From time to time, the American currency shows corrections (on a global scale), but for a trend to strengthen, it requires tangible signs of the end of the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it indicates that the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the following days, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. November 20. Wait Mode: Activated

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded very sluggishly for most of the day on Wednesday. This is not particularly surprising, as there were no significant events or reports scheduled for yesterday. We mentioned that the second estimate of inflation in the Eurozone carries little weight, and the FOMC minutes are even less relevant, as they are published three weeks after the actual meeting, making the information they contain outdated by the time they are released.

As a result, the market once again had nothing to react to yesterday, and over the past few months, it has shown no desire to take the initiative. All analysis of the pair's movements now boils down to two points: volatility and flat conditions on the daily chart. These two concepts are interconnected, and it can be said that without one, there would be no other. Volatility is declining in both the short- and long-term. Thus, with each passing day, the market is trading less actively. What could this be attributed to? It is evident to all market participants that the fundamentals and macroeconomics are not to blame. Yes, we have not seen any important labor and unemployment reports in the U.S. for the past month and a half, but has that stopped the Federal Reserve from holding its meetings? On the contrary, the last two Fed meetings made "dovish" decisions, which have not hindered the dollar's growth.

And what about the "shutdown"? Can it really be considered an ordinary event? What about various other reports and events in the world, particularly in the U.S.? Didn't Donald Trump introduce new tariffs in October? However, volatility continues to decline, and market movements remain illogical. There can be only one explanation for this: the flat state. Many traders view the flat as a coincidence. Many believe that a flat forms due to the absence of news or significant events. This is a major mistake. The flat forms for entirely different reasons.

Let us recall that all movements of any instrument can be conditionally divided into trends and flats. As we all know, large players—market makers—dominate the market. Thus, periods of flat are characterized by the accumulation or distribution of positions by market makers. A trend is the realization of established deals. Simply put, large capital first accumulates its positions, and then movement begins when liquidity is insufficient to meet demand or supply.

Therefore, the current flat on the daily timeframe is neither a coincidence nor a result of a weak news background. It represents the planned actions of major players. When they have fully established their positions, the trend will begin. We still believe that the trend is upward because it is extremely difficult to say why anyone would buy the dollar at this time. Consequently, in the current situation, the only option is to wait and... also accumulate positions. As the price approached the lower boundary of the flat—the 1.1400 level—this presents a good opportunity for long-term positions now.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of November 20 is 55 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1481 and 1.1591 on Thursday. The upper channel of the linear regression points downward, signaling a downward trend, but in fact the flat continues on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice in October, which may provoke a new upward trend in 2025. In the near future, the indicator may enter the oversold territory for the third time.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1536
• S2 – 1.1475
• S3 – 1.1414

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1597
• R2 – 1.1658
• R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations

The EUR/USD pair has once again settled above the moving average, maintaining an upward trend on all higher timeframes, while a flat has persisted on the daily timeframe for several months. The U.S. dollar remains strongly influenced by global fundamental factors. Recently, the dollar has risen, but the reasons for this movement may be purely technical. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered targeting 1.1481 on purely technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.1800 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe).

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, it indicates that the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) represent the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the following days, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on November 20. The Pound Sterling is Struggling

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GBP/USD 5M Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair was trading lower on Wednesday and left the sideways channel of 1.3096-1.3212. The price also crossed below the Senkou Span B line, raising concerns that this is not just a coincidence but could indicate a trend. The British pound has once again demonstrated unprecedented weakness. For over a week, during the breakdown of a downward trend, it traded within a sideways channel, showing no desire to resume rising. It appears that the pair's decline yesterday was not due to macroeconomic factors, but instead because the bears grew tired of the bulls' passivity.

The macroeconomic backdrop favored the British pound's decline yesterday. The UK inflation report showed a slowdown in both headline and core inflation. However, it is essential to note that the actual values of both indicators matched the forecasts perfectly. The market was prepared for these values, and we once again find ourselves in a situation where the British pound did not deserve to fall, yet it did.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders could open two trades yesterday. Initially, the pair bounced off the lower boundary of the sideways channel, but the signal proved false. A sharp decline in quotes began during the U.S. trading session with the sole objective of exiting the sideways channel. As soon as this task was accomplished, the decline essentially stopped, resembling manipulation. The second sell signal, however, proved conditionally profitable and partially offset the loss from the first trade.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been changing constantly in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently cross each other and are mostly near the zero mark. Currently, they are at almost the same level, indicating approximately equal amounts of long and short positions.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, so market makers' demand for sterling is not particularly significant at the moment. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will, in any case, lower rates in the coming year, leading to a decline in dollar demand in one way or another. According to the latest report (dated September 23) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,700 BUY contracts and closed 900 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated, and there are no new reports.

In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but one must understand that this was due to Donald Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may begin to rise, but when this will happen is anyone's guess. It does not matter how fast the net position for the pound is increasing or decreasing. The net position for the dollar is declining in any case, and it is generally declining faster.

GBP/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has finally broken through the trend line and crossed below the Senkou Span B line. As it turns out, this was only temporary and served to first enter a consolidation phase and then resume the decline. In the coming weeks, a continuation of the British pound's rise can be expected, but this requires the flow of uncontrolled negativity from the UK to cease. We believe that medium-term growth will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, but to sustain it, the price must overcome the Ichimoku indicator line.

For November 20, the following significant levels are highlighted for trading: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3098) and Kijun-sen line (1.3139) may also provide trading signals. It is recommended to set a Stop Loss at breakeven once the price has moved in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may move throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Thursday, important reports on the labor market and unemployment for September are scheduled to be released in the U.S. Therefore, if the GBP/USD pair declines another 100 pips during a formal exceeding of the forecast for Non-Farms, it would not be surprising.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider selling if the price remains below the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.3050 and 1.2987. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the Senkou Span B line, with targets at the Kijun-sen line and the 1.3212 level.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels are shown as thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of each category of traders' net position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on November 20. Down Again?

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EUR/USD 5M Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair traded ultra-weakly for most of the day on Wednesday, then collapsed in the second half. Of course, "collapsed" is a strong term, as the total decline was about 50 pips. However, even this drop looked significant against the background of movements in recent weeks and months. As for the causes of the euro's decline and the U.S. dollar's rise, the situation is quite complex.

In the morning, the Eurozone published the second estimate of October inflation, which matched both the forecasts and the first estimate. Thus, it did not trigger the drop in the pair. In the evening, the U.S. released the FOMC minutes, a formal document, but the decline began about 5 hours before its release. Additionally, a UK inflation report raised expectations that the Bank of England would ease monetary policy at its upcoming meeting, but the drop did not occur in the morning, but during the U.S. trading session. In general, the British pound could theoretically pull the euro down, but this explanation seems like an excuse.

From a technical perspective, a new downward trend may begin on the hourly timeframe, as the price crossed below the Senkou Span B line yesterday. Today, reports on Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate will be released in the U.S., making it extremely difficult to predict where the pair will end up by the end of the day. Within a single day, the euro could show a decline without issue, but global factors continue to point only upward.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed yesterday. First, the price bounced off the Senkou Span B line, and then it broke through and reached the nearest target at 1.1534. Thus, the second sell trade was profitable, while the first one closed at a Stop Loss for breakeven.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated September 23. Since then, no further COT reports have been published due to the U.S. "shutdown." In the illustration above, it is clear that the net position of non-commercial traders has long been "bullish," with bears struggling to gain the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly losing it. Since Trump took office for a second term as President of the U.S., the dollar has been falling. We cannot assert that the decline of the American currency will continue with 100% probability, but current world events suggest that this may be the case.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the euro, while there remain sufficient factors that would weaken the dollar. The global downtrend is still ongoing, but what difference does it make where the price moved in the last 17 years? Once Trump concludes his trade wars, the dollar may start to rise, but recent events indicate that the war will continue in one form or another for a long time yet.

The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the preservation of a "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 800, while the number of shorts increased by 2,600. Consequently, the net position decreased by 3,400 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated and holds no significance.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form a new upward trend, but it is on the verge of cancellation. The price remains within the sideways channel of 1.1400–1.1830 on the daily timeframe, so a rise in the euro to 1.1800 can still be expected within the framework of a local trend. However, for this movement to occur, the price must once again consolidate above the Senkou Span B line.

For November 20, the following levels are highlighted for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1657–1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, and also the Senkou Span B line (1.1563) and Kijun-sen (1.1596). The Ichimoku indicator's lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Remember to set a stop-loss order to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

No significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone for Thursday, while reports that the market has been waiting for one and a half months—unemployment rate and Non-Farm Payrolls—will come out in the U.S. Therefore, high volatility may be observed in the second half of the day.

Trading Recommendations:

On Thursday, traders may open long positions if the price consolidates above the Senkou Span B line, targeting 1.1604–1.1615. Short positions will become relevant if the price consolidates below 1.1534, with a target at 1.1426. However, it should be remembered that movements during the American session will depend 100% on the labor market data.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels are shown as thick red lines, near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines from the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts represents the size of each category of traders' net position.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Will the Rate Be Cut in December? What Does the FOMC Minutes Say?

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According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting released on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reaffirmed the deterioration of the labor market but expressed increased concern about the implications of rate cuts for inflation processes. Members showed "significantly differing opinions" regarding actions at the December meeting.

The document states that during the monetary policy discussions at the meeting, participants emphasized that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains moderately high. Members also noted that current indicators point to moderate expansion in economic activity. They acknowledged that job growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, although it remained low until August. Participants believe that more recent data align with this trend. Furthermore, they concluded that the risks of employment decline have increased in recent months.

Against this backdrop, many members supported reducing the target range for the federal funds rate at the current meeting, with some approving such a decision while being open to maintaining the range, and a few opposing a cut.

Those in favor of or open to considering a cut argued that it is justified, as the risks of employment decline have increased in recent months, while the risks of rising inflation have decreased or remained unchanged since the beginning of the year.

Conversely, those advocating for keeping the rate expressed concerns that progress toward the Committee's inflation target has stalled this year, as inflation metrics have increased, or that greater confidence is required regarding inflation moving toward the 2% target, noting that long-term inflation expectations may strengthen if inflation does not return to 2% within the prescribed timeframe.

Once again, one participant agreed on the need to transition to a more balanced monetary policy but preferred a 0.5-percentage-point cut.

During the discussion on future directions for monetary policy, FOMC members expressed differing views on the degree of current monetary policy tightness and the upcoming December meeting regarding a potential rate cut.

The minutes indicated that a majority voted to further lower the target range for the federal funds rate, noting that this would be appropriate as the Committee transitions to a more neutral policy stance. However, some of these participants noted that they do not consider it advisable to implement another 25 basis-point cut at the December meeting.

Several participants assessed that further reducing the target range for the federal funds rate in December could be fully justified if the economy develops as they forecast during the upcoming inter-meeting period. Many members noted that, based on their economic outlook, it would likely be prudent to leave the target range unchanged until the end of the year.

All voting members agreed that monetary policy should not follow a predetermined path and will depend on a wide range of incoming data, changing economic forecasts, and the balance of risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

NZD/USD. Price Analysis. New Zealand Dollar Experiences Sharp Decline

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As of publication on Wednesday, the NZD/USD pair was trading around 0.5600, down 1.10% for the day. The currency reached an eight-month low amid disappointing New Zealand data and a general deterioration in market sentiment amid heightened risks.

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure following the release of weak producer price index data. According to official statistics, purchase prices rose only 0.2% in the third quarter, significantly lower than the previous 0.6% and well below the expected 0.9%. The increase in finished goods prices was only 0.6%, falling short of expectations. These publications follow recent statements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which noted that inflation expectations are currently around 2% and that the unemployment rate in the third quarter reached 5.3%, the highest level in the past 9 years. These factors heightened market expectations of a possible rate cut at next week's meeting.

Meanwhile, major macroeconomic indicators in the United States have not reached unequivocally positive conclusions; however, the U.S. dollar is supported by capital inflows into safe-haven assets amid rising global uncertainty. Recent data on initial jobless claims and the ADP employment report for the current week signal a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, heightening expectations that the Federal Reserve may commence rate cuts in December. Currently, the dollar retains solid support as investors remain cautious in anticipation of the delayed non-farm payroll (NFP) report for September, scheduled for release on Thursday.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are negative, confirming a bearish outlook, but it is worth noting that the relative strength index is close to the oversold zone, indicating some consolidation before the next movement. Below is a table showing the percentage change of the NZD against major currencies. On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar showed the greatest strength against the Japanese yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

WTI. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Oil Market Balances Between Opposing Forces

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The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil remains under pressure, trading above the round $59.00 level. The market feels this pressure as participants assess mixed indicators regarding U.S. inventories and acknowledge rising geopolitical risks associated with potential sanctions against leading Russian oil producers.

According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 4.4 million barrels for the week ending November 14, after a build of 1.3 million barrels the previous week. This news initially intensified bearish sentiment, confirming the view that domestic oil supplies exceeded seasonal averages.

However, an earlier report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on the same day showed a contrary picture. Official data indicated a reduction in inventories by 3.426 million barrels instead of the expected decline of 1.9 million barrels, following a significant increase of 6.413 million barrels the week prior. This discrepancy helped limit further pressure on WTI oil prices, as traders view EIA reports as a more reliable indicator of the underlying market balance.

In addition to inventory dynamics, geopolitical events continue to affect the market. The U.S. is preparing to impose sanctions on Russian oil companies "Rosneft" and "Lukoil" starting Friday. The U.S. Treasury Department noted that measures introduced in October are already impacting Russia's oil sales revenues and are expected to lead to a reduction in export volumes over time. Such signs of geopolitical tension support oil prices by constraining global supply.

Overall, the WTI oil market balances between opposing forces. On one hand is the increase in inventories according to API data and the reluctance of buyers to take risks, putting downward pressure on prices; on the other hand, a sharp decline in quotes based on EIA data and the impending sanctions against Russia help to soften the drop, keeping quotes around the round level of $59.00.

From a technical perspective, the decline in prices on the four-hour chart below the 100 and 200-SMA favors the bears. However, it is worth noting that the oscillators on this same chart are mixed, which requires caution from traders who are positioned to believe that the decline is over. On the daily chart, oscillators have moved into negative territory, confirming a pessimistic forecast. Nevertheless, price support is at the round level of $59.00, below which there is also support at $58.75 on the way to the round level of $58.00. If these levels do not hold, prices may need to return to the October lows around the $56.00 round level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Christine Lagarde Warns of the Consequences of Trump's Tariffs

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Recently, we have learned a lot about the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting in December. Almost all FOMC governors have spoken, and the market has come to realize that Jerome Powell has once again been right. At the last meeting, the Fed president clearly stated that a rate cut in December is by no means guaranteed. Subsequently, a majority of the FOMC Committee confirmed his words, saying they lean toward a pause until new evidence of a labor market slowdown emerges. Thus, the direction for the Fed's December meeting is now more or less clear. The baseline scenario is a pause until economic data necessitate otherwise.

And what about the European Central Bank? The situation with the ECB is even clearer. Inflation in the Eurozone has decreased to the necessary 2%, which means that the ECB will not consider rate cuts at upcoming meetings. However, by 2026, conditions may arise that warrant a change in monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde indirectly communicated this.

Lagarde hinted that the market underestimates the new U.S. tariff policy. According to Lagarde, many importers and exporters are currently trying to minimize the negative impact of tariffs on end consumers by reducing their own profit margins. In other words, it is the intermediaries between producers and consumers who are bearing the burden of Trump's tariffs. However, Lagarde notes that this situation will not last forever. Sooner or later, importers and exporters will start passing the burden of tariffs on to end buyers, and inflation could jump worldwide.

What happens if inflation in the Eurozone starts to rise again is clear. The ECB will be forced to tighten monetary policy. I want to emphasize that the time lag between the end of the easing cycle and the beginning of tightening will be significant enough to make this scenario a reality. For example, a Fed rate hike in December or early next year is simply not expected, even if U.S. inflation spikes to 3.5-4.0%.

Therefore, under ceteris paribus conditions, the ECB will be the closest to implementing monetary policy tightening in 2026. This is another "plus" for the euro's karma.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build a bullish section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policy and the Fed remain significant factors influencing the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current trend section may reach the 25-figure mark. At this time, an upward wave structure may begin to form. I expect that, in the range 1.1541–1.1587, the third wave of this structure will initiate, which may be either leading or more complex. In any case, in the coming days I will consider buying with targets around 1.1740.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with a bullish, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, and its structure appears very elongated. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in wave 4 looks quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. The key is for the news flow from the U.S. to be on the dollar's side.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to play, as they often bring about changes.
2. If there is market uncertainty, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no absolute certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Remember to use protective orders, such as Stop-Loss Orderses.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. What Does the UK Inflation Growth Report Indicate?

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The UK inflation data released on Wednesday put pressure on the British currency, including against the dollar. The GBP/USD pair has broken below the support level of 1.3100 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the four-hour chart) and is currently trying to stabilize within the 30-figure range.

Almost all components of the report came in at the forecast level, but annual figures reflected a slowdown in inflation. Both the overall and core indicators showed a downward trend. This result suggests that the Bank of England may reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting in December.

According to published data, the UK consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 0.4% month-over-month. Year over year, the figure slowed to 3.4%, the lowest level since May of this year. The core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, also slowed to 3.4%. This indicator has been declining for two months, with October marking the third consecutive month of decrease. The retail price index (RPI), used by employers in salary negotiations, fell to 4.3% from 4.5% the previous month. A downward trend has also been established here; the index dropped to 4.6% in August, to 4.5% in September, and to 4.3% in October (the lowest level since May of this year).

All these figures were at the forecast level, while the producer price index (PPI), which is based on raw material price movements, fell into the "red zone": month-over-month, the indicator remained in negative territory, decreasing to -0.3% (against a forecast of 0.0%), while year-over-year it dropped to 0.5% (against a projected increase of 0.7%).

The report's structure indicates that price growth in the "housing and utility services" category slowed to 5.2% from 7.3% the previous month. The most noticeable declines in inflation rates were observed in natural gas (2.1% vs. 13.0% in September) and electricity (2.7% vs. 8.0%), thanks to the reduction in price caps by Ofgem (the UK's energy market regulator). Prices in the "restaurants and hotels" segment also decreased (3.8% vs. 3.9%), as did prices for services overall (4.5% vs. 4.7%) and for clothing and footwear (0.3% vs. 0.5%).

At the same time, inflation in the "transport" category remained at 3.8%. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 4.9% (after rising by 4.5% in the previous month). Prices for entertainment also rose (2.9% vs. 2.7%).

Reacting to this report, sellers of the GBP/USD pair found themselves in the 30-figure range and are currently trying to consolidate below the support level of 1.3100 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on H4).

Overall, the report released on Wednesday significantly increases the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its December meeting, especially given weak labor market data and the growth of the UK's GDP. Yet, there is one "but."

The current decline in inflation is associated mainly with temporary factors—primarily a sharp easing of pressure from gas and electricity prices after the update of the Ofgem price cap, as well as seasonal declines in air fares and hotel services. Meanwhile, specific components of inflation continue to demonstrate resilience: food prices have accelerated again, and core inflation (excluding energy and food) has decreased only slightly, remaining quite high. All this indicates sustained internal price pressure—in services, wages, and supply chains. Thus, the current slowdown in inflation is more a combination of temporary factors and partial (but not complete) easing of core pressure.

This suggests that the results of the December meeting will depend on November's inflation dynamics. It should be noted that the November CPI growth report will be published just one day before the BoE's last meeting of the year.

Yet the fact remains: after the latest publication, the probability of a rate cut has increased, putting pressure on the pound. Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening amid weakening "dovish" expectations for the Federal Reserve's future actions. Market confidence is growing that the Fed will not lower rates in December, as the BLS will not be able to publish the U.S. labor market report for October. In my opinion, this is a highly debatable assertion, as much will depend on the September Non-Farm Payrolls, which will be released tomorrow, November 20. Suppose the employment figure unexpectedly collapses into negative territory; can the dollar maintain its current position? This is far from a rhetorical question.

Thus, despite the relatively strong bearish momentum, selling GBP/USD appears risky, even against a weakening British pound that cannot "play its game" in the near future. The intrigue surrounding the September Non-Farms persists, suggesting the compressed spring could fire in both directions. Given the uncertainty around the pair, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Euro Stops Being Afraid

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The euro can be criticized and sold, but it should not be underestimated. According to ING, EUR/USD is undervalued by approximately 1%, so weak U.S. labor market data will allow the major currency pair to counterattack. A rate cut in federal funds from 4% to 3.75% in December will again become the baseline scenario for the markets. As a result, the regional currency will finish 2025 at $1.18.

In its latest forecasts for GDP and inflation, the European Central Bank noted that the main risks to the Eurozone economy still include high uncertainty, elevated U.S. tariffs, and a strong euro. However, these factors can start to be viewed from a different perspective. The mention of uncertainty by European companies has fallen below the five-year average. The peak of import tariffs is behind, and they may only decrease. Finally, the regional currency is hardly considered strong, as EUR/USD has been trading in the 1.15-1.175 range for several months now.

Dynamics of Mentions of Uncertainty by European Companies

The U.S. stock market has been ahead for quite some time. Investors have been buying U.S. stock indices due to artificial intelligence technologies and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of 2025. However, the risk of an AI bubble now seems to be the most serious issue, and the central bank may not ease monetary policy.

Investors require diversification, and the European stock market offers an excellent opportunity. Corporate profits and expected earnings are increasing. Uncertainty is declining, the ECB's rates are low compared to those in the U.S., and the economy is about to accelerate under the influence of Germany's fiscal stimulus.

Dynamics of Expected Earnings Per Share

The flow of capital from the U.S. to the EU provides a strong case for buying EUR/USD. However, the major currency pair must first undergo a stress test from the minutes of the October FOMC meeting and the employment statistics for September in the U.S. Bloomberg experts predict an increase in non-farm payrolls from 22,000 to 50,000. Can this be considered progress? Hardly, especially since the October data is unavailable, and the Fed will be unable to assess the dynamics.

It is precisely the central bank's intention to be cautious, given the data vacuum, that allows the futures market to assign less than a 50% chance of easing monetary policy in December. This extends a helping hand to EUR/USD bears. But for how long?

The medium-term prospects for the major currency pair remain bullish. In early 2026, the issue of White House pressure on the Fed to lower rates will resurface. Additionally, the recently concluded longest shutdown in history will lead to a slowdown in GDP growth.

Technically, on the daily chart, the inability of bears to overcome dynamic resistances in the form of red and green moving averages indicates their weakness. Buy positions become relevant on a breakout of the pivot level at 1.0605 and the fair value at 1.1610.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. All Eyes on Non-Farms

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The euro-dollar pair continued to test the support level of 1.1580, which corresponds to the midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart. Despite numerous attempts made this week, sellers of EUR/USD have not managed to overcome this price barrier, let alone establish themselves below it. Although bearish sentiment clearly dominates the pair, buyers, if they do counterattack, are limited to a 20-30-pip correction. EUR/USD traders (both buyers and sellers) are clearly being cautious ahead of the key release of the week.

Thursday, on November 20, the United States will publish the long-awaited macroeconomic report. We will find out the official labor market data for September. The report is published with a significant delay, as it was originally scheduled for October 3. However, two days before that, the U.S. experienced a shutdown, which lasted a record 43 days. Therefore, we will only learn the September figures on Thursday.

This report is indeed highly anticipated, as the Federal Reserve is effectively divided into two camps: one advocating a wait-and-see stance due to concerns about rising inflation risks, while the other calls for a rate cut in December, citing a deteriorating labor market.

At the same time, "moderately hawkish" signals have been sounding increasingly frequently and loudly, leading most traders to revise their forecasts. According to the CME FedWatch tool data, the probability of a rate cut at the December meeting now stands at 48%, whereas just a month ago, the market was almost certain that the central bank would take further steps toward easing monetary policy by the end of the year (with a probability estimated at 90-95%).

Considering this "preview," Non-Farms takes on particular significance. If the report turns out weaker (sufficiently weak) than forecasts, the balance will tilt back in favor of the "dovish" scenario. This means the likelihood of a rate cut will rise to 60-70%, putting the dollar under pressure once again. However, if the report is at least at the forecast level (not to mention in the green zone), the greenback will enjoy increased demand amid easing "dovish" expectations.

Even before the shutdown, most analysts said U.S. unemployment in September would likely remain at August's level of 4.3%. Experts also predicted a weak increase in non-farm payrolls, only by 50,000 (following a 22,000 rise in August). The growth rate of average hourly earnings is expected to remain at last month's level, i.e., at 3.7%.

It should be noted that traders are "prepared" for a weak Non-Farms report, as unofficial reports have signaled negative trends. The ADP report, which was in the "red zone," is a notable example. The figure dropped into negative territory for the first time in four years, reflecting the ongoing slowdown in the American labor market. According to ADP specialists, the number of people employed in the private sector decreased by 29,000 in September (the lowest since December 2020), while most analysts predicted a weak, but still positive growth of 50,000.

Meanwhile, reports from the recruiting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also indicate that U.S. companies continued to cut jobs in September and October. The most vulnerable categories include warehouse workers, employees in technical sectors, and the food industry.

Such negative signals (from ADP and Challenger reports) have allowed us to assume that the Non-Farms for September and (especially) October will reflect the negative situation in the American labor market. The October report will likely not be published due to the shutdown, so all market attention will be on the September figures. Following the release, the EUR/USD pair will either drop to the 15-figure bottom and then to the support level of 1.1480 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands on D1), or it will return to the 16-figure area, testing the resistance level of 1.1650 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the same timeframe).

Another release of interest is the Unemployment Claims report. Although this is a secondary indicator, it is a more timely measure of the American labor market's health. Alongside other official reports, the BLS has stopped publishing weekly Unemployment Claims reports, which has also sparked intrigue in this area.

In other words, the U.S. labor market, after Thursday's information, will either become an ally of the greenback or a heavy anchor. In the lead-up to such significant releases for the EUR/USD pair, it is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see stance, despite Wednesday's prevailing bearish sentiment. Firstly, Non-Farms have the potential to "repaint" the fundamental picture for the greenback. Secondly, sellers of EUR/USD still cannot overcome the 1.1580 support level and consolidate below it. All of this indicates indecision among traders, both buyers and sellers.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.