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EUR/USD. Smart Money. The Bulls Are in Trouble

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The EUR/USD pair has been declining for the eleventh consecutive day. At the moment, quotes remain near "bullish" imbalance 9, which still allows for a potential reaction to this pattern eventually. Despite the persistence of the decline, it has been very slow. It is clear that the bulls have run out of fuel, while the bears have not visited the gas station either, so in any case the strength of the move is disappointing. Even today, when extremely important U.S. labor market and unemployment data were released, trading activity did not increase. It is even difficult to conclude that the bears are currently attacking, as a move of 20 points per day is hardly an attack.

Thus, I continue to wait for a bullish reaction to imbalance 9 until the invalidation of this pattern forces a conclusion that the bullish impulse has been canceled. Invalidation will occur below the 1.1616 level. This will not turn the trend bearish, but for some time the bears may seize the initiative. In this sense, only the bulls themselves can save the bulls. However, the bulls have been strikingly passive this week.

Two weeks ago, liquidity was swept from the swing of December 16, after which the decline of the euro currency began. Thus, chart analysis did predict a drop in the euro. However, the decline has been very weak, and the U.S. news background remains quite contradictory.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains in place, but traders now need new signals. Such a signal can only be formed within imbalance 9, but so far none has appeared. If bearish patterns emerge or bullish ones are invalidated, the trading strategy will have to be adjusted. At the moment, however, there are no grounds for this.

Friday's news flow added to traders' headaches. While the Nonfarm Payrolls report came in weaker than market expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, and the previous month's figure was revised from 4.6% to 4.5%. As a result, the overall package of U.S. economic data can be considered positive for the dollar, which sharply reduces the likelihood of another easing of the Fed's monetary policy in the coming months.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a new offensive for the past three months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the (in any case) dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the U.S.–China confrontation (where there has only been a temporary truce), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, bleak prospects for the U.S. economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Thus, in my view, further growth of the pair will be entirely justified.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced less frequently, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. However, I personally believe this is yet another "temporary calm." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why no new wave of criticism from Trump has emerged. That does not mean, however, that these factors no longer pose problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I am not trying to do so. The blue line marks the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered complete. The bears would need to push the price down about 300 pips to reach it, and I consider this task unachievable under the current news backdrop and circumstances. The nearest upside target for the euro remains the "bearish" imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On January 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The news background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

In my view, the pair may be in the final stage of its bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have attacked more frequently in recent months. Still, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth. Traders also had opportunities to open new trend-following long positions after reactions from bullish imbalance 3, then after a reaction from imbalance 8, and later after a rebound from imbalance 9. Next week, a second reaction to bullish imbalance 9 may still occur. The target for euro growth remains the 1.1976 level. New long positions are acceptable if a new bullish signal forms. If not, the long strategy will have to be reconsidered.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Smart Money. What Is Happening with Unemployment in the US?

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The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the "bullish" imbalance 12 zone, which served as a new buy signal. However, just a few days later, it returned to this pattern. This pattern may act as the lower boundary of a local sideways range, so I am not rushing to conclusions until it is invalidated. Despite the decline in the pound over the past few days, the bullish trend remains intact, and bulls continue to dominate the market. On Wednesday, they could have launched a new attack in response to the ADP and JOLTS reports, which are directly related to the U.S. labor market and failed to show solid results. However, the bulls appeared to be "on the sidelines," as they showed no reaction to these reports.

The "bullish" imbalance 12 remains the only viable pattern. If it is invalidated, this will not lead to an immediate cancellation of the bullish trend; it will merely delay the pound's next advance. Of course, traders are interested in trends rather than pauses, but much this week will depend on U.S. economic data. Let me remind you that traders' main concerns center on the U.S. labor market and the unemployment rate. Friday's reports did not provide a clear answer about the state of the U.S. labor market: the unemployment rate declined, but the number of new jobs was once again disappointing.

The current chart picture is as follows. The bullish trend in the pound may be considered complete, but the bullish trend in the euro is not. Thus, the European currency may continue to pull the pound higher for as long as necessary—or vice versa. Bulls bounced from bullish imbalance 1, from bullish imbalance 10, from bullish imbalance 11 twice, and now also from imbalance 12, which is likewise bullish. Therefore, I still expect growth toward the 2025 highs—around the 1.3765 level.

On Friday, the news background favored the bears. Despite the importance of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, I consider the unemployment rate to be more significant. Since unemployment returned to 4.4%, I believe the payrolls data can be largely disregarded. As a result, bears—who had been out of favor all week—received unexpected support on Friday. Imbalance 12 has not been invalidated, but it is close to that point.

In the United States, the overall news backdrop remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite challenging. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January. There was no U.S. labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be considered positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the most recent labor market data allow for a fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy in January. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and return to the year's highs.

For a bearish trend to form, the dollar would need a strong and stable positive news backdrop, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need a strong dollar, as this would keep the trade balance in deficit. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong declines in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. How do the bears plan to push the pound further down if a bearish trend is supposedly forming now? If new bearish patterns emerge, a potential decline in the pound sterling can be reconsidered.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On January 12, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The outlook for the pound remains favorable for traders. Four bullish patterns have been worked out, signals have formed, and traders can maintain long positions. I see no fundamental reasons for a sharp decline in the pound in the near future.

A resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected as early as from imbalance zone 1. At present, the pound has reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, imbalance 11, and imbalance 12. As a potential upward target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, though the pound could rise much higher. If bearish patterns appear, the trading strategy may need to be revised, but at the moment, no such patterns are present.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The NZD/USD pair has been under selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day. Spot prices remain subdued and showed little improvement after the release of the latest inflation data from China.

China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year over year in December, up from 0.7% the previous month, although the figure fell short of the forecast 0.9%.

At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 1.9% year over year, compared with a 2.2% drop in November, signaling a moderation in deflationary pressures. However, these figures failed to provide a meaningful boost to the Australian and New Zealand currencies, including the New Zealand dollar. Rising geopolitical tensions are supporting the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset, allowing it to extend its weekly advance to a monthly high and continue exerting pressure on the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar.

Nevertheless, the release of the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report helped the NZD/USD pair halt its decline.

Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may also limit further gains in the U.S. dollar. In addition, the hawkish rhetoric of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) regarding future policy is lending support to the New Zealand dollar, helping to contain losses in the NZD/USD pair. In particular, RBNZ Governor Anna Breman noted that current interest rates are likely to be kept at this level for a longer period, given the expected economic outlook. This encourages caution among NZD/USD bears, and it would be more prudent to wait for a sustained break below the 50-day SMA at 0.5730 before opening new short positions.

For now, prices have found support at the 50-day SMA, while resistance is seen at the 0.5750 level. It is also worth noting that oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, with the Relative Strength Index having moved into negative territory, confirming bullish weakness in the NZD/USD pair, which appears to be locking in losses.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold maintains a cautiously negative tone without developing a clear bearish trend, as market participants refrain from taking aggressive positions ahead of the NFP release—the key U.S. nonfarm employment report. These data will be a decisive factor in assessing the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut, which will directly affect the short-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar and provide fresh impetus for the precious metal. The U.S. dollar continues its two-week rally, setting a new monthly high, which puts pressure on the yellow metal.

Nevertheless, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainty, are preventing gold from sliding sharply. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNBC on Thursday that rate cuts are the last missing element needed to accelerate economic growth and that the Fed should not delay this step. Meanwhile, the market is pricing in the likelihood that the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs in March 2026, with another cut expected by the end of the year. This outlook is supportive of the precious metal.

The geopolitical backdrop also favors gold: the U.S. invasion of Venezuela, the diplomatic conflict between China and Japan, and the prolonged Russia–Ukraine conflict. In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, President Donald Trump outlined expectations of long-term U.S. control over Venezuela and the development of its oil reserves. China, escalating tensions with Japan, imposed restrictions on exports of rare earth metals and magnets following remarks by the Japanese prime minister regarding Taiwan.

From a technical perspective, gold has shown resilience below the 9-day EMA. The next support level is seen at $4,400. Resistance lies at $4,500, and a break above this level would open the way toward testing the all-time high. Oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, confirming a bullish outlook.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The Japanese yen continues to suffer intraday losses amid uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's interest rate trajectory and an escalation of tensions between China and Japan. These factors, together with the risks of slowing consumer demand while inflation continues to outpace wage growth at the beginning of 2026, outweigh the positive surprise from Japan's household spending data for November. In addition, concerns over Japan's fiscal position and the resilience of equity markets continue to undermine the yen's status as a safe-haven asset.

Nevertheless, market participants are confident that the Bank of Japan will adhere to its policy normalization path. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and could slow further gains in the U.S. dollar, thereby limiting the downside in the Far Eastern currency. At the same time, speculation about possible government intervention to support the national currency calls for caution before positioning for further upside in USD/JPY ahead of the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

On Friday, Japan's Statistics Bureau reported a recovery in consumer spending following the October decline. Spending jumped 2.9% year over year in November, exceeding forecasts. However, these figures have had little impact on the yen amid the continued decline in real wages. According to official government data released on Thursday, Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the 11th consecutive month, down 2.8% in November. This indicates that the core trend of wages lagging behind inflation remains unchanged, creating challenges for the Bank of Japan and undermining the yen.

At the same time, China has intensified tensions with Japan by imposing restrictions on exports of rare earth metals and magnets. This move followed comments by the Japanese prime minister regarding Taiwan and posed a threat to supply chains for local manufacturers, further increasing pressure on the currency.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda did not rule out further tightening, stating earlier this week that the bank would continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices evolve in line with forecasts.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is holding on to its two-week gains and has set a new monthly high against the yen. However, its upward potential is limited by expectations of Federal Reserve easing. Particular attention today will be on the release of the NFP report. In addition, there is a possibility of a U.S. rate cut in March and another one by the end of the year, although this will depend on the NFP results.

From a technical perspective, the pair has broken above resistance at 157.30, tested the December high, and moved toward the round 158.00 level. The December high has now become resistance, while 157.30 acts as support. At the same time, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, confirming a bullish outlook.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 9th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3422 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

A lot of important statistics lie ahead. Data are expected on U.S. nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, and changes in average hourly earnings. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations will also be released. These data will serve as important benchmarks for understanding the current state of the U.S. economy and, accordingly, for forecasting the Federal Reserve's next steps. In particular, strong labor market data could push the Fed toward a more gradual reduction in interest rates this year. The unemployment rate is a key indicator of economic health. A decline in unemployment signals rising employment and improving economic prospects for the population, which could support the U.S. dollar. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations, in turn, will show how consumers assess the current economic situation and what they expect regarding future inflation. These data may have a noticeable impact on consumer spending, which is an important component of the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3420 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.3475 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3475, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pound growth today can only be expected in the case of very weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3391 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3420 and 1.3475 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3391 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3345 level, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return today in the case of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3420 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3391 and 1.3345 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 9th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1642 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's further downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Positive data on retail sales dynamics in the eurozone suggested that a major decline in the pair during the first half of the day was unlikely. However, the euro's upward movement was also restrained by concerns about the future development of the European economy. Market participants remain focused on the energy and geopolitical situation in Europe. In addition, the European Central Bank does not intend to continue cutting interest rates, which forces consumers to be more cautious with their spending.

The upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics from the United States is expected to trigger significant volatility in financial markets. All market participants will closely follow the publication of data on nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, and changes in average wages. Particular importance will be given to the relationship between these indicators. For example, a strong increase in employment combined with rising wages could boost consumer optimism and contribute to higher inflation. In such a scenario, the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its policy of keeping interest rates unchanged, which could lead to a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. At the same time, weak labor market data, combined with declining consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations, could force the Fed to take a more dovish stance. This, in turn, could lead to a weakening of the U.S. currency.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1655 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.1689 level. At 1.1689, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can only be expected after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1635 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1655 and 1.1689 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1635 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1599 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if strong labor market data is released.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1655 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1635 and 1.1599 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions very cautiously. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for January 9-12, 2026: buy above $90,000 (200 EMA - rebound)

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Bitcoin is trading around $90,450 above the 200 EMA and within the uptrend channel. During the Asian session, Bitcoin managed to find support around the bottom of the uptrend channel, and we observed a technical rebound.

If Bitcoin consolidates above the psychological level of $90,000 in the coming hours, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to reach the 21 SMA around $91,500, the 3/8 Murray at $93,750, and finally reach the top of the uptrend channel around $96,500.

In case of a sharp break below the 200 EMA and a consolidation below the uptrend channel, and if the price falls below $90,000, we could expect a sharp drop in Bitcoin, which could reach $87,500. Finally, we could expect it to reach the 1/8 Murray around $81,250.

As long as the price consolidates and remains within the uptrend channel, any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to take long positions with targets at $96,500.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but we must be very careful in the coming hours as the news from the United States could generate strong volatility and this could change the outlook we have so far.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for January 9-12, 2026: buy above 1.1605 (rebound - 3/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1643 under a strong bearish sequence that began on December 22. The instrument is now reaching a low of 1.1639. We are seeing a slight recovery as we await data to be released in the United States in the coming hours.

If the euro reaches the key support around 2/8 Murray located at 1.1596, this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions, as technically it is oversold and a technical rebound is likely to occur around this area.

On the contrary, if the instrument manages to consolidate above the 3/8 Murray located at 1.1657, there could be a strong recovery of the euro. Therefore, EUR/USD could reach the 200 EMA around 1.1697 and could even reach the 4/8 Murray at 1.1718.

The euro continues to move within the downtrend channel formed since December 22, which means that we could expect a recovery in the coming hours, giving us the opportunity to open long positions.

The Eagle indicator has reached extremely oversold levels around five points, which means that a technical rebound could occur in the coming hours or days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for January 9-12, 2026: buy above $4,460 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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XAU/USD is trading around $4,466 above the 21 SMA, consolidating around this area, as a strong technical correction is likely to occur if the price falls below this area.

After the opening of the Asian session, gold underwent a technical correction, finding strong resistance around $4,484 towards $4,450. However, this area coincided with the 21 SMA, which encouraged a technical rebound.

This indicates that gold could continue to rise in the coming days and reach the 5/8 Murray at $4,531 and could even reach its all-time high around $4,445. Finally, the price could surge to the 6/8 Murray at $4,625.

We can see in the chart that gold left a gap around $4,327. If the price falls below $4,460 and consolidates below this zone in the coming hours, it could be the start of a strong technical correction. The instrument will likely reach this level in the coming days and could even fall towards $4,415, where the 200 EMA is located.

Our outlook for gold remains bullish, so if there is a technical rebound at $4,375-4,315, we could open long positions.

At current price levels, we should wait for confirmation to enter short positions only if the price falls below $4,460.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for CRUDE OIL for January 9-12, 2026: buy above $57.80 (200 EMA - 1/8 Murray)

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Crude oil is trading around $58.11 above the 200 EMA and above the 1/8 Murray level, which suggests it could continue its rise in the coming days until the price reaches the psychological level of $60.00.

If WTI consolidates above $57.80 in the coming hours, any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions, with a target at $58.30.

A decisive break above the downtrend channel while consolidating above the 200 EMA could be a clear signal for a bullish outlook. In the short term, WTI could reach $59.37 around 2/8 Murray and eventually reach 3/8 Murray at $61.50.

A pullback and consolidation below $57.50 could mean a continuation of the bearish movement, during which the price could reach the key support of the 0/8 Murray around $56.25. WTI could even reach the bottom of the downtrend channel around $55.60.

Given that crude oil is showing a strong positive signal, our outlook remains bullish. So, at current price levels, we could enter long positions or wait for a technical correction and continue buying over the next few days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on January 9, 2026

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued to decline and reached the support level of 1.1645–1.1648. A rebound from this zone today would favor the European currency and lead to a moderate rise toward the corrective levels of 38.2% – 1.1686 and 23.6% – 1.1731. A consolidation below the 1.1645–1.1648 level would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next support level at 1.1607–1.1612 and the Fibonacci level of 76.4% – 1.1566.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recently completed upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish. In my view, the decline in the pair will not be prolonged or strong, but a breakdown of the current bearish trend is now required in order to expect a new rise in the euro. Based on the current chart setup, such a reversal would occur above the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802 or after two consecutive bullish waves.

On Thursday, traders had very few news drivers compared to Wednesday. However, if you look at the chart, you will likely reach the same conclusion as I did—the price movements over these two days are almost identical. On Wednesday, two out of three U.S. reports came in weaker than traders expected, yet the dollar still strengthened. Therefore, it is currently very difficult to say what exactly is driving the bears' attacks. And if they do have solid reasons, what are they, and why are these attacks so weak? These questions are largely rhetorical.

Yesterday, Donald Trump stated that the next U.S. military target could be Mexico. Let me remind you that Mexico is not the only country on Trump's latest "blacklist," as in 2026 we have already heard threats directed at Cuba and Colombia, as well as claims involving Greenland. Trump believes that Mexico is ruled by cartels and that it is time to put an end to this. I do not believe that the U.S. dollar is rising due to geopolitical tensions in North and Central America. The dollar is rising very weakly and for unclear reasons, but it is still rising. Today, the focus is on Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. Another rebound from this zone would favor the EU currency and a moderate rise toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the 1.1649–1.1680 support zone would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% – 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 16,177 long positions and 1,189 short positions. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 293,000, while short positions amount to 133,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they generate numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy—for example, deterioration in the labor market. Traders fear a loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 under pressure from Trump, especially amid the planned resignation of Jerome Powell in May.

U.S. and European Union Economic Calendar

• Eurozone – Change in Retail Sales (10:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Building Permits (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Housing Starts (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On January 9, the economic calendar contains seven events, two of which can be considered extremely important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may be strong in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

Selling opportunities were available after a rebound from the 1.1731 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1645–1.1648. These targets have been reached. Today, sellers may remain in the market with targets at 1.1607–1.1612 and 1.1566 if the bears push through the 1.1645–1.1648 level. Buying opportunities will emerge after a rebound from one of the two nearest target zones on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1731.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1492–1.1805 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 09/01/2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on January 9, 2026

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to decline on Thursday and consolidated below the support level of 1.3437–1.3470, which allows for a continuation of the decline toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362. However, the bullish trend has not yet been canceled, as prices have not consolidated below the 1.3403 level.

The wave structure remains bullish. The most recently completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the information environment in the United States also leaves much to be desired. Bears have been active over the past few days, but a breakdown of the bullish trend will occur only below the 1.3403 level.

There was virtually no news background on Thursday, aside from the U.S. report on initial jobless claims. The figure matched traders' expectations, so it had no impact and could not have influenced the market. Today, the pound begins the day with another decline, but in just a few hours the U.S. will release critical reports for the dollar—Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. These reports will determine the outcome of the FOMC meeting at the end of January and may determine the fate of the dollar today.

In my view, the U.S. dollar has shown unjustified movement over the past few days, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the JOLTS job openings report, and the ADP employment reports all came in worse than forecasts. The only positive factor for the dollar was the ISM Services PMI. Market expectations for U.S. data are low. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected in the range of 45–60 thousand (lower than the previous month), while the unemployment rate is forecast at 4.6%. Thus, the dollar faces its third test this week. It passed the first and did not show up for the second.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from this zone would again favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the support level of 1.3118–1.3140. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became more bullish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,572, while the number of short positions decreased by 5,727. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 63,000 vs. 105,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the pound appears to have exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less risky than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may periodically enjoy demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to ease monetary policy to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at this point no one can be certain that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.

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U.S. and UK Economic Calendar

• U.S. – Building Permits (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Housing Starts (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On January 9, the economic calendar contains six entries, all from the United States, two of which are extremely important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be felt in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3526–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3470. The target was achieved. New selling opportunities emerged after a close below the 1.3437–1.3470 level, with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. Today, buying can be considered on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 support level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3437–1.3470.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market braces for turbulence

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As you start the new year, so it often goes. In six of the past seven years, the S&P 500 moved for the remainder of the year in the same direction as it did during the first five trading days of January. Since 1950, the index's direction over these periods has matched in 68% of cases. Therefore, it is unsurprising that the strong start of US stocks in early 2026 has bolstered optimism.

S&P 500 Early-January Performance and Annual Trajectory

Investors are watching the seasonal factor closely, in particular, the S&P 500's behavior in January. Early in the year, long?term players form and rebalance portfolios, so the second month of winter often sets the market direction for the next 11 months.

A notable feature of early 2026 is an intensification of rotation processes — reallocating portfolio weight away from tech stocks toward other, more economically sensitive sectors. As a result, the Dow Jones is heading toward the psychologically important 50,000 mark, while the Nasdaq 100 is stuck in consolidation. Constituents of the Nasdaq are showing mixed performance, with Alphabet rising, while Oracle falling.

Defense stocks looked best of all. They finished in the green on Donald Trump's intention to increase military spending by $1.5 trillion.

Smaller?cap stocks also got off to a strong start. The Russell 2000 outperformed the Nasdaq 100 by 4 percentage points over the first five trading sessions, notching the second?best start on record, behind only 2021.

Russell 2000 vs. Nasdaq 100 Spread Dynamics

According to Royce Investment Partners, the strength of small caps is a long?term story. They were undervalued for a long time, so the current rotation is beneficial for the Russell 2000.

The stock market is preparing for two major events — the jobs report and the Supreme Court's verdict on the legality of White House tariffs. Strong nonfarm payroll data would reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March and put pressure on risk assets, including the S&P 500. Conversely, a court decision overturning import duties could lend support to the broad index.

Wells Fargo estimates that refunds of tariff collections would boost US corporate profits by an additional 2.4% this year. Tariff repeal would act as a kind of fiscal stimulus for US corporations and be positive for the equity market as a whole.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 staged a rebound from fair value at 6,900. A successful retest of that level would increase the risk of a pullback toward at least 6,825 and provide a basis for selling the broad index. Conversely, a return of the price to the bar's high near 6,931 would be a strong argument for going long in hopes of restoring the uptrend.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stable inflation expectations give ECB room to keep rates unchanged

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Consumer inflation expectations in the euro area remained stable in November, allowing the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at current levels.

According to the ECB's monthly survey published on Thursday, households expect prices to rise by 2.8% over the next 12 months. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively.

Stable inflation expectations are important for the ECB because they directly influence consumer behaviour and investment decisions. If consumers expect prices to keep rising, they tend to spend more now, which can feed further inflation. Conversely, steady expectations allow the ECB to pursue a more predictable monetary policy.

The ECB stressed, however, that it remains committed to price stability and stands ready to act if needed. In the coming months, the bank will monitor economic data closely — including inflation, employment and growth indicators — to assess whether policy adjustments are required.

According to the latest reports, euro area inflation eased slightly in December to the ECB's 2% target, while underlying inflationary pressures also moderated. Services prices remain a concern, however, in part because wages have been rising strongly.

Borrowing costs have been unchanged since June 2025, and investors and economists do not expect further moves in the near term. Policymakers have signaled no immediate need for action, while emphasizing that uncertainty in the economy persists.

A technical outlook for EUR/USD suggests that buyers should consider reclaiming 1.1660. That would open the way to test 1.1681. From there a move to 1.1705 would be possible, though advancing without support from major players may prove difficult. The extended target is the high at 1.1725. On a decline, meaningful buying interest is likely around 1.1641. If buyers do not appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1619 or to open long positions from 1.1591.

As for GBP/USD, its buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.3435. That would allow a move toward 1.3460, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is the area around 1.3488. Should the pair fall, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3403. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3373, with scope to extend to 1.3341.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC bottom under formation

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Bitcoin staged a solid recovery yesterday, climbing toward the $91,000 area, though further upside remains constrained. Much will depend on the behaviour of large market participants, because the absence of fresh bullish catalysts could undermine prospects for further gains.

Meanwhile, an interesting report from JPMorgan caught attention. Bank analysts say the outlook for the crypto market looks increasingly optimistic despite recent turbulence. Slowing outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are an important sign that investors are returning to digital assets after a period of uncertainty. That shift directly improves market liquidity and creates conditions conducive to renewed upside.

The end of the sell?off that began in late 2025 suggests that most investors who wanted to realise profits or exit positions have already done so. The lack of panic selling and the stabilisation of prices point to a restoration of confidence. Notably, the correction was driven by profit-taking rather than by underlying fundamentals, which is a constructive signal.

Confirmation of a bottom on CME futures adds to the growing sense that the worst may be behind the market. CME futures are a key instrument for institutional investors, and their activity often serves as a leading indicator of market sentiment. A trough in that market suggests large players are adopting a more constructive stance toward cryptocurrencies.

January may therefore mark a trend reversal. If the positive trends highlighted by JPMorgan persist, the crypto market could resume an upward trajectory in the coming months. Traders should monitor developments carefully and weigh both the opportunities and the risks associated with digital assets.

Trading recommendations:

Bitcoin: Buyers are targeting a return to $91,300, which would open a direct path to $93,200 and then to $95,000. The further objective is the peak near $97,400. A break above that level would indicate attempts to restore a bullish market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $89,600. A slip below that area could quickly push BTC toward $87,400, with a further target near $85,500.

Ethereum: Clear consolidation above $3,154 would open a direct route to $3,229, with a farther target near $3,297. Breaching that level would strengthen bullish sentiment and renew buyer interest. If ETH falls, buyers are anticipated at $3,072. A move below that zone could rapidly send ETH down to about $2,997, with a longer target near $2,887.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Interest Rates Are at an Acceptable Level

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While the euro is gradually weakening against the U.S. dollar, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that interest rates are at an acceptable level, although he warned of significant uncertainty due to geopolitical events.

De Guindos' statement comes amid growing concerns about economic growth in the eurozone. Inflation has nearly returned to the ECB's 2% target, which creates a dilemma for the regulator: the economy needs stimulus, but policymakers are hesitant due to geopolitical uncertainty.

The impact of geopolitical factors, which de Guindos highlighted, cannot be underestimated. Conflicts and tensions in various regions of the world, disruptions in energy and raw material supplies, and changes in trade policy all contribute significant uncertainty to the eurozone's economic outlook. Investors typically avoid risky assets during periods of instability, which can lead to capital outflows from the euro.

Speaking a few days after the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in the U.S., de Guindos said: "Things are happening that would have been unthinkable just a few quarters ago." "In a complex geopolitical environment, investments in businesses can be affected."

According to de Guindos, despite improvements in real incomes, households are maintaining high savings levels because they have doubts about the future, including fiscal policy. Nevertheless, he noted that the complex geopolitical situation, including concerns about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has not had a significant impact on the eurozone economy.

"The current level of interest rates is adequate; the latest data fully match our forecasts," Guindos said. "Overall inflation is 2%, and inflation in the services sector, which concerns us, continues to slow."

"If circumstances change, our monetary policy will be adjusted," he added.

According to the latest data, inflation in December decreased to the ECB's 2% target, while underlying inflationary pressures also eased. Borrowing costs have remained unchanged since June, and investors and economists do not expect further cuts in the foreseeable future.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

Buyers need to focus on capturing the 1.1660 level. Only then will it be possible to target a test of 1.1681. From there, the next step could be 1.1705, although reaching it without support from major players will be challenging. The most distant target is 1.1725. In the event of a decline, only around 1.1641 would I expect significant action from major buyers. If there is no support there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1619 minimum or open long positions from 1.1591.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.3435. Only then will it be possible to target 1.3460, above which further gains will be difficult. The furthest target is 1.3488. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3403. If successful, breaking this range would seriously damage bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3373 minimum, with the potential to reach 1.3341.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 9th. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.86 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

Better-than-expected U.S. unemployment claims data, along with a positive U.S. trade balance, triggered another rise in the dollar against the yen. Today, good data on the growth of Japan's Leading Economic Index and changes in household spending did not help the yen, which continued to weaken against the dollar. It is clear that market participants are relying on strong U.S. labor market statistics, which could significantly weaken the yen's position against the dollar. In the near term, the dollar's movement will largely depend on incoming macroeconomic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. For this reason, traders need to carefully analyze these factors to assess USD/JPY prospects.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today around the entry point of 157.54 (green line on the chart) with a target of 158.01 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.01, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.28 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward 157.54 and 158.01.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price drops below 157.28 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.93, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move. It is best to sell as high as possible.

Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.54 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward 157.28 and 156.93.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – approximate price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – approximate price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginners:

Forex beginners should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on January 9: S&P 500 and NASDAQ rebound slightly

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Yesterday, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.01%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.44%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.55%.

The dollar strengthened alongside Treasury yields as traders prepared for the US jobs report and a possible Supreme Court ruling on tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. Oil continued to climb.

The currency appreciated against all G10 peers, and the US dollar index was set to post its best weekly performance since November. Most Asian equity indices rose. Treasuries declined, with the yield on the benchmark 10?year note up one basis point to 4.18%.

Futures on stock indices point to a positive open for European markets, while contracts on US indices trade almost unchanged.

Traders are bracing for two consecutive risk events on Friday that could influence market sentiment in the short term — one of the most significant tests for global equity markets since their rebound after the April sell?off triggered by tariffs. US jobs data for December is especially important because it will inform the Federal Reserve's next steps on interest rates. Economists forecast that the US economy added 70,000 jobs in December, slightly more than the prior month, and the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5%. The jobs market report will help clarify the likely path for US rate changes. Traders are currently pricing in at least two quarter?point Fed rate cuts in 2026.

The Supreme Court is also set to rule on the fate of many of Trump's tariffs. Hundreds of companies are already lining up to seek refunds of the billions paid in duties. A key factor in the Court's decision will be whether there is a clear mechanism to preserve past and future tariff revenues in unchanged form, an outcome that would be positive for the US dollar.

In other market segments, oil continued to gain ground as investors tracked developments in Venezuela and Iran. Silver and gold slipped slightly.

As for the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,930. Overcoming this level would signal further upside and open the path to $6,946. An equally important objective for bulls is to secure control above the $6,961 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,914. A break below this level could quickly push the instrument back to $6,896 and open the way to $6,883.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 9th. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3435 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 points.

Today, the absence of economic indicators from the United Kingdom may reduce downward pressure on the British pound. The market will focus on other key factors, including U.S. labor market data, so during European trading we are unlikely to see major changes in the GBP/USD pair. The lack of British news will create a kind of pause for the pound, giving it a chance to stabilize after the recent sell-off. However, this pause will likely be short-lived. With the release of U.S. data in the second half of the day, the balance of power may change significantly. Any important U.S. statistics, such as employment and inflation data, can have a strong impact on global currency markets, including the pound. For this reason, market participants trading the pound should exercise particular vigilance and adaptability.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy pounds around the entry point of 1.3438 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3475 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3475, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move. It is unlikely that the pound will see strong upward movement today.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy pounds today if the price tests 1.3422 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the levels 1.3438 and 1.3475.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell pounds today after the price drops below 1.3422 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3386, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move. Pound sellers may take advantage of a new bearish market.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell pounds today if the price tests 1.3438 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward 1.3422 and 1.3386.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – approximate price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – approximate price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginners:

Forex beginners should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 9th. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1673 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.1647.

Better-than-expected unemployment claims data, combined with a positive trade balance, triggered another strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

Later today, in the first half of the day, data on changes in retail sales in the Eurozone for November, as well as information on changes in industrial production and Germany's trade balance, will be published. These reports will be an important indicator of the European economy at the end of the year and could potentially influence the euro exchange rate.

Retail sales, being a key component of consumer demand, reflect the overall economic condition and the population's willingness to spend. At the same time, Germany's industrial production, as the flagship of the European economy, will be closely monitored. A decline in production could indicate a slowdown in economic growth and disruptions in supply chains.

Additionally, Germany's external trade—being the largest exporter in Europe—will demonstrate how effectively the country is adapting to new economic circumstances and global challenges. The trade balance, which shows the difference between exports and imports, allows an assessment of the competitiveness of German industry and its ability to generate foreign currency inflows. A positive trade balance generally supports the strengthening of the national currency, while a negative balance may have a negative effect.

For intraday trading, I will primarily rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, euros can be bought around 1.1661 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1689. I plan to exit the market at 1.1689 and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Buying euros is justified after good data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1642 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1661 and 1.1689.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1642 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1613, where I will exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point move from this level. Pressure on the pair is expected today after weak statistics.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1661 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1642 and 1.1613.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – approximate price for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – approximate price for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes for Beginners:

Forex beginners should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Uniswap has the potential to be under pressure towards its nearest support level. Friday, January 09, 2026

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[Uniswap]

With RSI(144) condition in the Neutral-Bearish area and EMA(950) & EMA(200) which forming a Death Cross, It can be confirmed that today Uniswap is under pressure from sellers to at least reach its nearest support level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 5.986

2. Resistance. 1 : 5.740

3. Pivot : 5.558

4. Support. 1 : 5.312

5. Support. 2 : 5.130

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 5.312, there is potential for weakness to 5.312.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 5.312 is also broken to the downside, Uniswap may continue weakening toward 4.884.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if Uniswap unexpectedly strengthens and breaks and closes above 5.986.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 5.546

EMA(200): 5.764

RSI(14) : 55.31

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, when the U.S. session opens, the following economic data will be released:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Building Permits - 20:30 WIB

US - Housing Starts - 20:30 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 22:00 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 22:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Litecoin cryptocurrency has the potential to weaken toward its nearest support level

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[Litecoin]

Although RSI(14) is in Neutral-Bullish, but with both EMAs which still form a Death Cross, indicating that sellers remain quite dominant in Litecoin.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 83.42

2. Resistance. 1 : 82.33

3. Pivot : 81.11

4. Support. 1 : 80.02

5. Support. 2 : 78.80

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 80.02, there is potential pressure toward 78.80.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 78.80 is broken, Litecoin could test 77.71.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if Litecoin strengthens until it breaks and closes above 83.42.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 81.28

EMA(200): 81.80

RSI(14) : 51.01

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, when the U.S. session opens, the following economic data will be released:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Building Permits - 20:30 WIB

US - Housing Starts - 20:30 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 22:00 WIB

US - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 22:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on January 9th? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports

There are quite a few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Friday, and among them some will be important. We should start with the European reports on industrial production in Germany and retail sales in the EU. These reports are not extremely important but could theoretically affect the value of the euro.

However, we want to remind beginner traders that currently we are observing a technical decline of the EUR/USD pair from the upper boundary of the sideways channel toward the lower boundary, and the market reacts very reluctantly to macroeconomic data.

In the United States, data will be released that cannot simply be ignored. At the same time, we do not rule out that a strong reaction may not follow, as the market continues to trade very passively. Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate are reports that have a direct impact on the Fed's monetary policy. The dollar does not need extremely positive values to continue rising, but even neutral readings from these indicators are difficult to expect at this time.

Analysis of Fundamental Events

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Friday: speeches by Philip Lane, Neel Kashkari, and Thomas Barkin. This year, several members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee have already made comments, but these comments are practically meaningless in the context of Powell's December position and the Fed as a whole, especially given the absence of new data on unemployment, inflation, and the labor market.

Labor market and unemployment data will be released today, but it is unlikely that Fed representatives will have enough time to analyze them and immediately comment. In any case, the Fed is not expected to cut the key rate in January, and the ECB is not expected to change the key rate during the first half of 2026.

Overall Conclusions

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline. The euro is within a downward trend, and the pound is moving along with it. However, today the American macroeconomic statistics will have a significant impact on market sentiment. Therefore, movements during the U.S. session can be unpredictable.

Basic Trading System Rules

1. Signal strength is determined by the time required to form the signal (a rebound or a breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may produce many false signals or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session; all trades must then be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade MACD indicator signals only when there is sufficient volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
7. After a move of 15–20 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is Shown on the Charts

• Support and resistance price levels – levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red lines – trend lines or channels that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
• MACD indicator (14, 22, 3) – the histogram and signal line serve as an auxiliary indicator and can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with maximum caution or positions should be closed to avoid sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are the keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.