Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis

Daily Forex market analyst, Forex analysis. In this section you will find a fundamental and technical analysis of the Forex market for online trading.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/AUD for June 21, 2018

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EUR/AUD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which lead the price higher towards 1.5750 after a bearish breakout earlier. EUR gained momentum over AUD despite the dovish rhetoric, expressed by the ECB recently.

Today, the Euro group meeting was held along with German Buba President's speech which positively impacted the market sentiment on EUR. Buba President Weidmann stated that despite certain challenges of monetary policy recently, the eurozone's regulator is going to overcome headwinds soon and inflation should steadily accelerate from 1.1% to 1.9% by 2020. Though in the period from 2018 to 2020 consumer inflation can be flat at 1.7% for price stability. Moreover, today Consumer Confidence report was published with a decrease to -1 which was expected to be unchanged at 0.

On the other hand, this week Australia had nothing to offer with a strong impact on the market. The Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia ended with the same rhetoric. The Board confirmed that the domestic economy benefits from the policy of low interest rates. But it was not quite enough to impact the current market condition.

As for the current scenario, EUR is expected to gain and sustain the bullish momentum in the pair until Australia releases upbeat economic reports in the coming days. Meanwhile, certain indecision and correction may be observed in the currency pair that is expected to be short-lived.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing just below the event area of 1.5750 from where a daily close above the area is expected to lead to further bullish gains with a target towards 1.60 area in the future. Though before turning more bullish, the price may reject off the 1.5750 for a bearish retracement towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA and then breaking above 1.5750 to push higher in the coming days.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for June 21, 2018

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Bearish persistence below the price level of 1.2200 allowed further bearish decline towards the price levels of 1.1990 and 1.1880.

As mentioned, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established.

The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) was considered a prominent Supply zone where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry were offered on Thursday. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.1660 to secure some of the profits.

On the other hand, the current price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 is considered a prominent bullish demand where price action should be watched for a possible bullish pullback

However, Bearish breakdown below 1.1400 might occur if the current bearish momentum persists. This can potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for June 21, 2018

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Since January, the price zone of 0.7320-0.7390 has been standing as a significant supply zone during recent bullish pullback. The bulls failed to execute a successful Bullish breakout above 0.7400 during previous consolidations.

The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred.

Since April 13, significant bearish pressure has been applied. This probably turns the short-term outlook for the NZD/USD pair into bearish giving considerable significance to the multiple-top reversal pattern.

That's why, bearish breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The bearish scenario needed obvious bearish persistence below 0.7050 to maintain significant bearish momentum towards 0.6860 and 0.6820. That's why, the price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6925 to secure some profits.

Currently, the price levels of 0.6820-0.6780 are the next destination for the NZD/USD pair to be reached. These price levels should be watched for bullish rejection and a target level for current sellers.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD analysis for June 21, 2018

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1507. According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the bearish flag, which is a sign that sellers are in control. The trend is bearish. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1452 and at the price of 1.1342.Resistance levels:

R1: 1.1603R2: 1.1635R3: 1.1668

Support levels: S1: 1.1538S2: 1.1505S3: 1.1473

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD for June 21, 2018

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair faces resistance at 0.6878, while strong resistance is seen at 0.6912. Support is found at 0.6823 and 0.6786 levels. Today, the NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from 0.6851 level. The pair fell from 0.6851 level to the bottom around 0.6823. In consequence, the NZD/USD pair broke support at 0.6878 which turned into resistance.The 0.6878 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the NZD/USD pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.6878 level towards the target at 0.6823. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.6823 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6823 level in order to reach the second target at 0.6786 in the H1 time frame. However, the 0.6786 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.6754 level as long as this level is not breached.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD for June 21, 2018

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair broke the resistance that turned into strong support at the level of 1.3247 yesterday. The level of 1.3247 coincides with a golden ratio (78.6% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as a major support on the H1 chart today. Consequently, the first support is set at the level of 1.3247. Moreover, the RSI starts signaling an upward trend, and the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Hence, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the area of 1.3247/1.3300. So, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around 1.3247 - 1.3300. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci (1.3247) with the first target at the level of 1.3387 in order to test the first resistance in the same time frame. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.3387, the market will probably continue towards the next objective at 1.3442. The daily strong support is seen at 1.3247. Thus, if a breakout happens at the support level of 1.3240, then this scenario may be invalidated.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading recommendations for the EUR/USD currency pair on June 21, 2018

.The Euro/Dollar currency pair remained dramatically unchanged yesterday, the pair continue to be in the important range of 1.1510 / 1.1550. Speeches of the ECB head and the Fed Chair did not give confidence to sellers, although Jerome Powell (Fed) does not deny the possible additional increase in the interest rate. Today, the economic calendar does not shine with news, and many are waiting for the entry of reciprocal tariffs on goods from the United States, which will take effect tomorrow.

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Further vision

In fact, we are in a suspended state, as the range level of 1.1510-1.1550 keeps the quotation, but the sellers indecision is off the scale. At the moment, the focused is on the position of "Sit on the fence". We are already at the lower boundary of the range level and probably will soon be "hot."

What are the trade recommendations?

It is recommended to allocate positions on sale. It is worthwhile to keep clear fixations outside the range level below 1.1510 and to place pending orders there. The outlook is a primary decline to the periodic level of 1.1440 with a further move to 1.1300.

Otherwise, the scenario will not change and we will remain holding the range 1.1510 / 1.1650.

Indicator analysis

Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that the indicator analysis is inclined to sell, but, I repeat, we will speak about any significant movements only after fixing below 1.1510.

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Key Levels

Resistance zones: 1.1650 *; 1.1725 *; 1.1830 *; 1.1900; 1.2100

Support zones: 1.1550 ** (1.1510 / 1.1550); 1.1440; 1.1300 **

* Periodic level

** Range level

*** We sit on the fence - slang expression, we are out of the market

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Day review of GOLD on June 21, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

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GOLD

Having reached the downward target on the breakdown of the day's cloud, gold begin the correction and break down. Earlier, it was noted that the major resistance in this area is 1300.86 (weekly Kijun + monthly Tenkan + day Kijun). At present, we can see that the bears managed to keep this important breakthrough. As a result, players continued to decline with new strength, realizing the breakdown of the support zone due to retesting the broken weekly golden cross (1300.86) and holding the death cross' ability to work, which previously led to correction (1285.57-1278.55 Fibo Kiju weeks and months + level of 100% daily goal). At the moment, the levels of 1285.57 - 1278.55 will form a strengthened line of resistance in case that rising players recovered their positions. The main reference points for the decline are the lower boundary of the weekly cloud (1244.39) and the monthly Kijun (1248.78).

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The lower time intervals are currently in favor with the support of bearish sentiments. The downward targets and landmarks have long been worked out. In the case of an upward correction, the levels H1 and H4 will be the first to enter the work. Today, the resistance can be seen at 1265.54 (Tenkan N1) and 1268.72 (Tenkan N4 + Kijun N1).

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Indicator analysis. Daily review of EUR / USD pair for June 21, 2018

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On Wednesday, the price worked out the bottom of 1.1532, but the market closed above support line 1.1565. On Thursday, bears will try to overcome this line.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Market tries to breakthrough the support line of 1.1566 for the fifth time. Today, the bears will most likely hit the support line at 1.1566 and will go down towards the first goal of 1.1511 in the lower fractal level.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - upwards;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Thursday, the market will move down with the first goal 1.1511 in the lower fractal level (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Indicator analysis. Daily review of GBP / USD pair for June 21, 2018

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On Wednesday, the price worked out the bottom of 1.3146, but the market closed above the support line of 1.3170. On Thursday, bears will try to overcome this line.

Trend analysis (Figure 1).

Today, it is most likely that the bears will hit the support line of 1.3149 and will go down with the first target of 1.3054 in the lower fractal level.

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Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Complex analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - down;

- candle analysis - neutral;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- Weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Wednesday, it is possible for the GBP/USD pair to move down towards the first target of 1.3054 in the lower fractal level (the blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trade Wars: Breaking News.

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Trade Wars: Breaking News.

The heads of the world's largest central banks - the Fed, the ECB, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan - at the summit in Portugal on June 18-20, said that trade wars (read - unleashed by Trump) - can significantly worsen the state of the world economy: trade conflicts will hit the financial markets - it will hit the economy - and make the central bank to stop the policy of super-cheap money, which they just started now.

China on Thursday, June 21, again said that it is fully ready to respond to new tariffs imposed by the United States - "both quantitatively and qualitatively" - yesterday the US administration said it was preparing a list of goods from China worth $200 billion to impose a duty of 10% (China will not be able to impose duties on goods from the United States on the same amount - China buys goods from the United States for no more than $150 billion - the US buys goods from China much more).

On Thursday, India said it would impose tariffs on goods from the US - in response to duties on steel and aluminum imposed by Trump.

The EU promised to introduce from June 22 tariff on goods from the US worth $3.6 billion - motorcycles Harley Davidson, whiskey Bourbon, American jeans.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis of Gold for June 21, 2018

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Recently, Gold has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $1,261.50 and met my first downward target. According to the H1 time - frame, I found no strong reaction from buyers, which is a sign that sellers are still in control. Watch for potetnial bearish flag before you sell. The next downward target is set at the price of $1,250.00 (Fibonacci expansion 100%).

Resistance levels: R1: $1,276.75 R2: $1,282.13 R3: $1,285.70

Support levels: S1: $1,267.75 S2: $1,264.50 S3: $1,258.75

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The dollar will win against sterling

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The US dollar, despite a slight decrease in the degree of tension in the markets, primarily due to the lack of new threats to increase customs duties from D. Trump, receives support. And it looks like this process will continue, as it is supported by a number of important reasons of a fundamental nature.

Reduced geopolitical tensions have helped the stock markets to calm down somewhat, but this is hardly the end of the story associated with trade wars. The desire of the US President to change the balance of trade between the US and the countries that trade with them by force is frightening the markets, as it is the basis for the likely slowdown in global economic growth. At the same time, economic isolation of the US threatens with a rise in prices for raw materials and goods, which will push the Fed to raise interest rates more actively. In addition, once again there has been a clear divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and other world central banks. The US promises to continue to raise rates, and they are unlikely to be solved in the conditions of trade wars and the risk of a slowdown in economic growth in these countries. An additional supporting factor for the dollar is also the expectation of investors that in the conditions of trade wars, America will suffer significantly less. That's why the dollar is in demand.

But back to the main event of today. Market attention will be focused on the results of the Bank of England meeting on monetary policy. It is expected that the key interest rate will remain at the same level, 0.50%, as well as the volume of asset repurchase in the amount of 435 billion pounds.

Assessing the likely outcome of the meeting, we believe that the British regulator will not only not dare to change its monetary rate in the direction of continuing to raise rates due to the slowdown of inflationary pressure and economic growth, as well as uncertainty of the solution to the problem of the country's exit from the EU, but also will make it clear that if the outcome of the meeting will be such a scenario, we should expect a continued decline in the sterling in the foreign exchange markets, and primarily against the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure in anticipation of the outcome of the Bank of England meeting. We believe that the pair will continue to fall to 1.3035, securing below 1.3145.

The NZDUSD pair may adjust upwards after falling against the background of the publication of data on new Zealand GDP, which showed its slowdown. It can grow to 0.6855 or even to 0.6875. But we believe that from these marks it is necessary to sell it with a local target of 0.6775.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin analysis for June 21, 2018

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Trading recommendations: According to the H1 time - frame, I found a rising channel and potential end of a downward correction (abc) in the background, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for a potential breakout of the intraday supply trendline to confirm further upward movement. The upward targets are set at the price of $6.875 and at the price of $7.216.

Support/Resistance

$6.769 – Intraday resistance; $6.517 – Intraday support; $6.875 – Objective target 1; $7.216 - Objective target 2.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading plan for GBP / USD pair as of June 21, 2013

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Whatever one may say, the Bank of England today has no other options at all, except to pose as an ostrich and hide its head in the sand. After the ECB has extended the quantitative easing program and Mario Draghi said that he does not rule out its further extension in the future, raising the refinancing rate for the Bank of England becomes akin to suicide. Even though the UK withdrew from the European Union, it is economically very closely connected with continental Europe.

If the refinancing rate in the UK is significantly higher than in Europe, for the British economy it promises only losses. The piquancy of the situation is due to the change in the rhetoric of the ECB, which now justifies the policy of zero rates and the action of the quantitative easing program. It is not because of the need to accelerate economic growth but by the trade war with the United States. If the Bank of England will raise the refinancing rate, and the economic conditions in the UK itself have long been ripe for such a decision, then, depending on the economic situation in Europe, the victim of this war will be just Foggy Albion. The most ridiculous thing is that if the ECB continues to extend the program of quantitative easing, then the Bank of England may even think about lowering the refinancing rate. So today, the Bank of England will leave everything unchanged, and for many, it will signal that at the end of the year the department of Mark Carney can surprise everyone unpleasantly.

The GBP / USD currency pair managed to restore the downward movement after a slight pullback to 1.3200 level, overcoming the previously formed stagnation. It is likely that there will be a further decline in the psychological range of 1.3000 (1.3000 / 1.3050).

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Review of EUR / JPY pair for the week of June 21 on simplified wave analysis

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The wave pattern of the H4 graph:

The direction of the main movement this year from February 2 sets the downward wave. In a larger wave design, the area turn into a correction. The preliminary goal of the wave has been reached and the structure has been fully formed.

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The wave pattern of the H1 graph:

The ascending wave from May 29 is closest to this scale of analysis. It has a high wave level, with the prospect of moving to a larger scale of motion. The price forms a downward rollback in the whole current month.

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The wave pattern of the M15 chart:

The bearish wave of June 7 in a larger wave model forms the middle part (B). The estimated level of completion is within the support zone.

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Recommended trading strategy:

Sales have a small potential and it can only be used for intraday trading. To trade on higher timeframes, you need to track buy signals.

Resistance zones:

- 130.10 / 130.60

- 128.20 / 128.70

Support zones:

- 126.30 / 125.80

Explanations to the figures:

A simplified wave analysis uses a simple waveform, in the form of a 3-part zigzag (ABC). The last incomplete wave for every timeframe is analyzed. Zones show the calculated areas with the greatest probability of a turn.

Arrows indicate the counting of wave according to the technique used by the author. The solid background shows the generated structure and the dotted exhibits the expected wave motion.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need to confirm the signals used by your trading systems.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The daily review of GBP / JPY pair on 21.06.18. Ichimoku Indicator

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GBP / JPY pair

Over the past 24 hours, the situation has not changed significantly. Conclusions and expectations of the previous analysis have remained relevant. Prolonged inhibition promotes the development of an ascending correction. The closest benchmarks for recovery now are the levels of the daytime cross (Fibo Kijun 145.77 + Tenkan 146.16 + Kijun 146.57). The main task for bears at the moment is to overcome the support in the area of 144.48-34-11 (the week-old Senkou Span B + the monthly Kijun + 100% target H4), the recovery of the downtrend (minimum extremum 143.17) and 100% working on the daily goal (143.09).

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Players on the rise at lower timeframe have reached an important zone of resistance (145.77 - 146.16) today. Breakdown and consolidation above will significantly change the current balance of power in favor of bulls since this will eliminate the dead cross of H4 and formed an upward target for the breakdown of the H1 cloud. Therefore, the resistance of 145.77 - 146.16 is now an excellent milestone for the completion of the upward correction and the resumption of the downtrend.

Indicator parameters:

all time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

Color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chikou is gray,

clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

Color of additional lines:

support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Burning Forecast 06/21/2018

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Burning Forecast 06/21/2018

EURUSD: Preparing a breakthrough of the range.

There are no important news in the calendar. Several news of the second level of importance will be released at 12.30 GMT and 14.00 GMT (news on the US economy) - perhaps it will revive the market. Markets are also waiting for the entry into force on 22 June of retaliatory tariffs on goods from the United States, declared by the EU - in response to Trump's imposed duties on steel and aluminum. Europe's largest automakers offer Trump a compromise on duties on vehicles: to remove ALL duties on car supplies by the US and the EU among themselves - now the duty on the import of cars from the US to the EU are 10%, in the US 2.5%. Trump put forwards these fees as the reason for duties on steel and aluminum for the EU. There are negotiations.

The euro is in a narrow range.

Sell from 1.1525, stop 1.1570, profit 1.1425.

Alternative: Buy from 1.1645, stop 1.1600, profit 1.1845.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading plan for the European session on June 21 for EUR / USD

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To open long positions for EURUSD, you need:

It is better to slow down in buying the euro. All attention is directed to the intermediate support level of 1.1553. If its breakdown takes place, then it is best to return to long positions after updating the monthly lows to around 1.1513 when there is a false breakdown there or to rebound from 1.1482. If the euro rises above the level of 1.1593 with a resistance in the first half of the day, the main target of buyers will be the upper limit of the lateral channel at 1.1634.

To open short positions for EURUSD, you need:

The breakdown and consolidation below the intermediate support level of 1.1553 will lead to the formation of a larger pressure on the pair with an exit to the monthly lows to around 1.1513 and 1.1482, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of euro growth in the first half of the day, selling is best on a false breakout from 1.1593 or on a rebound from the resistance level of 1.1634.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading plan for the European session on June 21 GBP / USD

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To open long positions for GBP / USD, you need:

The formation of a false breakout at 1.3146 and the Bank of England hinting at raising interest rates in the near future will be the first signal for the opening of long positions in the pound with the main goal of returning and consolidating above the level of 1.3180. From this level, one can expect an upward correction to the area of 1.3213, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of a breakdown of 1.3146, opening long positions in the GBP / USD is best done around the areas of 1.3104 and 1.3077.

To open short positions for GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers will try to gain a foothold below the support level of 1.3146, which will lead to the formation of a new downward wave in the area of 1.3104 and 1.3077, where it is recommended to lock in profits. In case of growth at the level of 1.3180 and a resistance in the first half of the day, selling the pound can be returned to the rebound from the areas of 1.3213 and 1.3269.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Global macro overview for 21/06/2018

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The Bank of England also should not change the policy parameters (interest rates, asset purchase program). Previous supporters of the hike (McCafferty and Saunders) should stay with their opinion, but the rest of the committee will keep its cautious approach. Data from the last meeting do not give clear indications that the second quarter brings such an important rebound after the weak start of the year. PMI indexes rebounded and prices in the industry are rising, but production in April collapsed. Nevertheless, BoE would probably like to make a hike before the settlements (or the confusion because of their absence) of Brexit negotiations, which will take place in October / November. For this reason, the hopes for a hike in August are not going away, but today's BoE is unlikely to suggest whether it is more or less real. However, even small changes in the content of the message regarding the assessment of economic activity may be significant for today's GBP behavior. Risk asymmetry shows an advantage in favor of the Pound, because the neutral statement will not disturb growing expectations for the August increase.

The Bank of England is expected to hold the interest rate at 0.50%, together with Asset Purchase Facility at 435bln. The BoE decision is scheduled at 11:00 am GMT, together with Monetary Policy Summary release.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The key technical resistance at the level of 1.3217 is still not violated as the bulls were too weak to break through it. Since then, the price has fallen towards the level of 1.3124 in a Falling Wedge formation. In a case of a further drop, the next important support is seen at the level of 1.3000 and this level might be very well defended by bulls. Please notice, the market conditions are now oversold on multiple timeframes and the momentum is still weak as it hovers below its fifty level.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Euro falls against the reciprocal measures from the European Union

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Weak sales data in the US housing market yesterday hurt again the American dollar, and failed to strengthen its position against the euro and the pound in the afternoon. All attention was focused on the speech of the Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who also did not particularly help the dollar. We will talk about this in more detail based in yesterday's review.

According to the report of the National Association of Realtors USA, sales in the US secondary housing market in May this year fell again. It happened because of the jump in prices, as well as the price increase to credit money access after the Federal Reserve approved interest rate hikes. Also, the weak spring season of purchases could affect the decline in sales.

The report further indicates that sales in the secondary housing market in May decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous month and amounted to 5.43 million homes per year. Economists had expected sales to rise to 5.54 million homes a year. In comparison with the same period of the previous year, sales in May fell by 3%.

Yesterday, it was reported that the European Union will not hesitate to retaliate against the US decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from Europe.

The reciprocal tariffs on the import of goods from the United States into the EU will begin to operate tomorrow. As noted in the statement of the European Commission, the tariffs will be exported from the US goods worth 2.8 billion euros, but this list will be expanded to 6.4 billion euros in the future. The fee will be 25% and will apply to all goods produced in the US, including whiskey and motorcycles.

As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remained unchanged.

Buyers of risky assets still have a good chance to regain their advantage, but it gradually melts. To form an upward movement in the euro, it is necessary to return to the resistance area of 1.1600, where the demolition of stop-orders of sellers will lead to a larger upward trend in euros, with an update of weekly highs in the resistance range of 1.1650 and 1.1690. Meanwhile, it's impossible to get to 1.1600 as the pressure on the euro is increasing. A breakout of 1.1550 could lead to a larger sale to the area of new lows of 1.1510 and 1.1450.

Quotes of oil slightly increased yesterday after the publication of a report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy. The report showed a decrease in oil reserves last week by 5.9 million barrels. Economists had expected a reduction in stocks of only 2.5 million barrels.

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However, more attention is focused on the OPEC meeting. In the evening, the Saudi Energy Minister said that it is time to change course in accordance with market conditions, which is an increase in oil production. According to the minister, there is time to discuss the volumes of production required by the market, and any decision to be made is based on fundamental factors and data.

* The presented market analysis is informative and does not constitute a guide to the transaction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Global macro overview for 21/06/2018

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We are closer to the holiday stagnation, which today may disturb the decisions of the three central banks of developed economies, although expectations for them are not excessive.

In Switzerland, the SNB is holding a quarterly meeting, but the regulator could easily take a break at least until the middle of next year. Despite the improvement in inflation data that went higher than expected recently and stays on the highest levels in seven years (1.0% YoY in May) and GDP (2.2% YoY in Q1), the bank has other issues on its head. The Italian political crisis stopped the depreciation of the franc and pulled EUR/CHF from 1.20 back to 1.15. Hence the SNB will certainly uphold fears that the franc is "highly valued". Finally, the SNB will do nothing before the ECB gives the first signal to normalize interest rates, and after the super-lasting result of the ECB meeting last week, it can be expected that the SNB will also abstain from hikes for at least a year.

The SNB is expected to hold the Libor Rate at -0.75%, with the lower target range at -1.25% and higher target range at -0.25%. The decision is scheduled at 07:30 am GMT, together with SNB Monetary Policy Assessment and Press Conference.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/CHF technical picture at the H4 time frame. Just before the SNB interest rate decision the market remains locked inside of the channel as the breakout above the long-term trend line around the level of 1.1650 has failed. The nearest resistance is seen at the level of 1.1656 - 1.1640 and the nearest support is seen at the level of 1.1486 - 1.1463. Momentum remains neutral and if the SNB will decide to leave the rates unchanged as expected, the price should continue to consolidate in the range.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis on EUR/USD for June 21, 2018

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The EUR/USD pair is near its 2018 lows just 50 pips above 1.15. Next major support is at 1.1450. However in the short-term we observe a bullish wedge pattern being formed together with bullish divergence warning signs on the 4-hour chart.

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Blue lines converging - bullish wedge pattern

Blue upward sloping line - bullish divergence

The EUR/USD pair has resistance in the area of 1.1575-1.1580. A break above this level could provide a nice short-term bullish signal for a move towards 1.1650-1.17. Support is at 1.1520. A break down below this level will open the way for a move towards 1.1450 at least.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical analysis on USDX for June 21, 2018

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The Dollar index is in a bullish trend. Price is above 95 but the RSI on the 4-hour chart is not confirming these new highs. Important short-term support is at 95.15-95. A break below this level will push price lower towards 94.

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Blue line- short-term support

Red line - long-term support

Magenta line - bearish divergence

Price is above the Ichimoku cloud and above the long-term support trend line. As long as price is above the 93.60 level and the red trend line support, trend will not be bearish. A break of this trend line will turn trend to bearish. However I believe this Dollar's rally has run its course and traders should not chase long Dollar positions. I believe they should be ready to go short once support at 94.90 fails to hold. This should be the first shot on short positions and if it goes lower, traders should add to short positions on a break below the red trend line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

21 June 2018





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