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The Yen Is Looking Stronger and Stronger

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The nationwide Consumer Price Index published last week showed accelerated core inflation in March—from 2.6% to 2.9%. Inflationary pressure is increasing, supporting the case for further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

The goods sector largely drives the rise in inflation, and according to Mizuho analysts, it is unlikely to slow down in the near term. The growth in the services sector is more modest, but this is precisely where price acceleration is expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April in the Tokyo area will be released late Thursday evening. It will reflect the development of the current trend and could trigger increased demand for the yen if it also shows growth.

At the moment, the BOJ sees no particular need to change its gradual rate-hike strategy, given the high uncertainty surrounding new U.S. tariffs. There is a risk of a downward revision of GDP forecasts, which would support a slower pace of rate increases. Therefore, clarity on the tariff situation and its economic impact is needed before further rate hikes can be considered.

Markets, however, anticipate a continued strengthening of the yen, as it is once again becoming the main safe-haven asset amid evident weakness in the U.S. dollar. With gold reaching 3,500 per ounce—signaling a decline in confidence toward the dollar—the yen maintains solid upside potential, even against the BOJ's extremely cautious stance.

The yen has once again emerged as a leader among major currencies. The net long position against the U.S. dollar rose by 2.43 billion to 15.00 billion over the past week—a significant advantage and the trend remains strong. After a brief uptick, mainly due to the lack of new rate signals from the BOJ, the estimated fair value is again turning south.

The yen reached a new high on Tuesday, climbing to 139.90—shy of the 139.59 target we've considered key in recent weeks. The upward rebound is purely corrective and not a sign of a reversal. On the contrary, signs are emerging that a move below 140 in USD/JPY is far from the limit, and the pair could continue downward toward the support zone of 127–129.

The yen's rapid strengthening increases the likelihood of a short-term correction. The nearest resistance lies at 144.20/40, and if the yen pulls back to this level, another downward impulse may follow after a period of consolidation. A deeper correction to the 146.50/147.10 zone is possible, but under current conditions, it appears unlikely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Canada Awaits Election Results. USD/CAD Outlook

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Last week, the Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged at 2.75%, as expected. The accompanying statement was neutral in tone, emphasizing ongoing uncertainty. Confidence is hard to maintain when U.S. President Donald Trump once again made disparaging comments about Canada. He suggested that auto tariffs might be increased, supported by the bizarre claim that the U.S. subsidizes Canada by 200 billion dollars a year.

Nevertheless, the markets reacted little to the statement, and the Canadian dollar has remained steady despite expectations. There is still a chance that the Bank of Canada will be forced to cut the rate at its next meeting in June, but forecasts will inevitably be revised after the April 28 elections. The frontrunner is former Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, appointed by the monarch to stand up to Trump—so a serious showdown over tariffs and broader trade relations appears likely, and the outcome is far from certain.

Last week, Carney published his "Plan to Defend Against Trump" and called it his campaign platform. At the top of the agenda is raising defense spending to 2% of GDP, including to counter China and Russia in the Arctic. The economic portion of the plan remains vague, suggesting it's still being negotiated. Accordingly, everything is subject to change—and could change quickly—making forecasts for the CAD's future trajectory unstable.

The speculative short position on the CAD dropped significantly—by 2.35 billion to -6.0 billion—allowing the estimated fair value to dip below its long-term average.

The Loonie is consolidating just above the support zone at 1.3680/3700. Last week, we suggested that trading would enter a sideways range after forming a base. However, recent trends have increased the likelihood of further declines. We expect an attempt to break below this support zone toward the 1.3410/30 area, which would have seemed far-fetched recently, especially considering Canada was the first country targeted by the U.S.'s new trade policy. Yet, market reaction suggests that investors see a strong chance that Canada will defend its position. If there's a pullback toward the nearest resistance zone at 1.4010/20, we anticipate a resumption of selling.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Australian Dollar Could Suffer If the U.S.-China Trade War Escalates

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U.S. President Donald Trump once again commented on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, openly expressing dissatisfaction with the pace of rate cuts. Another public expression of disapproval of the Fed's policy, accompanied by an accusation against Powell (whom Trump called a "major loser"), triggered a new wave of dollar selling and renewed growth in gold as the primary safe-haven asset.

Market anxiety is beginning to resurface as a result. Although the reaction is less restrained than on Monday, it signals that something is amiss with Trump. The dollar is being forced to respond to this nervousness with another decline.

The NAB quarterly business survey showed a slight improvement in conditions in Q1 but remains below average. Business confidence also improved slightly but remains in negative territory and significantly below the long-term average.

Several components, such as capital expenditure, declined, indicating that businesses remain cautious.

The Australian dollar faces additional pressure due to the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. Despite rumors that the U.S. is ready to exclude some Chinese goods from the new tariffs and Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting that tensions might ease, China has informed markets that no tariff negotiations are taking place and that if the U.S. truly wants to resolve the issue, it should cancel all unilateral measures. Australia, in turn, is concerned about U.S. pressure to cut back on trade with China, as this would hit Australian exports—something the country would be unable to compensate for elsewhere fully.

Weak recovery momentum, threats to exports, and sluggish consumption growth will continue to pressure the Reserve Bank of Australia, which does little to support bullish sentiment for the AUD. Even outright dollar weakness may only help AUD/USD rise in the short term.

The net short position on the AUD has slightly decreased and stands at -3.73 billion for the reporting week. Positioning remains bearish, but after some initial hesitation, the fair value estimate has risen above the long-term average. This suggests that the current bullish trend may not yet be over.

As expected, the bullish impulse in AUD/USD—traditionally triggered by turmoil from the Trump administration—was short-lived. After a sharp rally, the pair consolidates near the resistance zone at 0.6410/30. At the same time, dollar weakness prevents the pair from retreating, so the chances for continued growth appear more favorable. A breakout above the local high of 0.6442 and firming above it could lead to further gains toward the next target at 0.6440/50. We consider this scenario more likely. Support lies at the technical level of 0.6317; a drop below this level is unlikely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Euro Is Waiting for Its Moment

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When the market does not move as expected, it often goes in the opposite direction. In recent days, the euro has faced a barrage of negative news. Slowing business activity and weakened economic prospects for German companies were accompanied by warnings from the Bundesbank about a recession in Germany and remarks from European officials suggesting the regional currency is not a competitor to the US dollar. Nevertheless, EUR/USD has found support just above 1.13 and is attempting to regain control.

Germany Business Climate Index Dynamics

When Donald Trump returned to the White House, he came with the ambition to reshape the world. Tariffs were supposed to boost US budget revenues, while investments in the manufacturing sector would accelerate US GDP growth. However, as we approach 100 days since his inauguration, the 47th president's resolve seems to wane. The Republican did not anticipate the extent of the sell-off in US stocks and bonds, nor the flood of appeals from business leaders. They fear that import tariffs and interference with the Federal Reserve will lead to economic turmoil.

As a result, Trump is doing things he probably wouldn't have considered before—hinting at lower tariffs against China and claiming he has no intention of dismissing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This has led to a correction in the heavily battered US dollar. And it is just a correction—no indication of a reversal in the upward trend of EUR/USD. For that to happen, the US president would need to abandon his trade war agenda.

I don't think that's likely. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent talks about massive imbalances in foreign trade and insists they must be addressed. According to him, the US is helping China reshape its economy by shifting from an export-driven model to one centered on consumption—achieved through trade wars.

China's Economic Dynamics and Structure

In reality, a reduction in the US trade deficit would simultaneously shrink the capital account surplus—meaning less capital would flow into the US to purchase stocks and bonds. With Washington's national debt at $29 trillion and the Congressional Budget Office forecasting a $1.9 trillion budget deficit, the holes will be challenging to fill—especially if Trump proceeds with extending the tax holiday and political battles over the debt ceiling continue.

Despite the euro's current weakness, a lack of investor confidence in the US dollar suggests that the major currency pair will soon restore its upward trend. It is only a matter of time.

Technical outlook: The bulls are attempting to regain momentum on the daily EUR/USD chart. If an inside bar pattern forms, buying opportunities will emerge on a breakout above resistance at 1.139. A rebound from support at 1.127 or 1.118 also serves as a signal to open long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on April 24, 2025

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The wave pattern for GBP/USD has also transformed into a bullish, impulsive structure—"thanks" to Donald Trump. The wave structure is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD. Until February 28, we observed the formation of a convincing corrective pattern that raised no concerns. However, demand for the U.S. currency then began to fall rapidly, ultimately leading to the development of a five-wave upward structure. Wave 2 took the form of a single wave and has now completed. Consequently, we should expect a strong rise in the British pound within the framework of wave 3, which we've been witnessing for the past two weeks.

If we take into account the fact that the news background from the UK has not contributed in any way to the strong rise of the pound, we can conclude that currency movements are being dictated solely by Donald Trump. If (theoretically) Trump's trade policy changes, then the trend may reverse—now to the downside. Therefore, in the coming months (or even years), close attention should be paid to every action taken by the White House.

GBP/USD rose by 60 basis points on Thursday, although, in my opinion, a decline during the day would have made more sense. What were the reasons for the pound's renewed strength? There were no significant news events from the UK today. Meanwhile, the U.S. released a strong durable goods orders report, which far exceeded market expectations. Logically, this should have led to a stronger dollar. However, the market once again ignored robust U.S. data, expecting the worst from the American economy amid Trump's trade wars.

At this point, nothing seems able to help the dollar. On Tuesday, the U.S. currency slightly improved its position, but the market mostly brushed off reports of a tariff grace period for 75 countries and the potential halving of tariffs for China. Thus, we could see another wave of dollar weakness at any time—even if Trump refrains from introducing new tariffs or raising existing ones. As I've said before, the market is pricing in the worst-case scenario: recession, rate cuts by the Fed, rising unemployment, and higher inflation. I believe Trump will significantly soften his stance on tariffs in the coming months once it becomes clear that they are ineffective. But by then, the U.S. dollar may fall even further.

Taking all of this into account, I currently see no reason for the dollar to grow. According to the current wave pattern, a corrective wave within wave 3 should be forming—but even this minor task seems to be beyond the market right now, as there are no buyers for the dollar.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may continue to experience numerous shocks and reversals that defy wave patterns and technical analysis in general. The assumed wave 2 is complete, as the price has broken above the peak of wave 1. Therefore, we expect the formation of bullish wave 3 with nearby targets at 1.3345 and 1.3541. Of course, it would be ideal to see a corrective wave 2 within wave 3—but for that to happen, the dollar would need to strengthen... and someone would have to start buying it.

On the higher wave scale, the structure has also shifted to a bullish trend. We can now anticipate the development of a more extended upward movement. The nearest targets are 1.2782 and 1.2650.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to interpret and often need to be revised.
2. If you're unsure of what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never absolute certainty in price direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on April 24, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has transformed into an upward, impulsive structure. I believe there is little doubt that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Before February 28, when the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar began, the wave pattern represented a convincing downward trend, constructing corrective wave 2. However, Donald Trump's weekly announcements of various tariffs did their job. Demand for the U.S. currency began to plummet, and the entire trend segment starting on January 13 has now taken the form of a five-wave impulse.

Moreover, the market failed to form a convincing wave 2 within the new upward segment. We only saw a minor pullback, smaller than the corrective waves within wave 1. However, the U.S. currency may continue to decline unless Donald Trump completely reverses his adopted trade policy. We've already seen how the news background has previously changed the wave layout—another such instance is possible.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 60 basis points on Thursday, though market movement remained subdued. On Monday, the market reacted to news that Jerome Powell might be dismissed by Trump, and on Tuesday to news that Trump had changed his mind. There was also talk of halving tariffs on China to 50–60%, although the White House has yet to clarify if or when this will happen.

On Wednesday and Thursday, there were plenty of economic reports from both Europe and the U.S., but the market showed little interest. Business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors drew no significant attention. There was some hope for the U.S. durable goods orders report, but even that turned out to be a letdown. Although orders surged by a record 9.2% (well above the expected +2% m/m), demand for the U.S. dollar didn't budge. It neither rose nor fell — it simply remained unchanged.

This suggests that the market continues to ignore all economic data, focusing solely on news from the White House. Although there were no new announcements today, Trump has a habit of shaking the markets almost daily through interviews and public comments. The day is not over yet, and new information regarding the trade war may still emerge.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair is continuing to build a new upward trend segment. Donald Trump's actions reversed the downward trend. Therefore, for the time being, wave structure will be entirely dependent on the position and actions of the U.S. president. This should be constantly kept in mind.

Based solely on the wave pattern, I initially expected a three-wave correction as part of wave 2. However, wave 2 has already completed in the form of a single wave. The construction of wave 3 in the upward trend has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.25 area (the "25th figure"). Whether this happens will depend entirely on Trump. The internal structure of wave 3 is already looking rather erratic.

On the higher wave scale, the pattern has also shifted to a bullish trend. We are likely entering a long-term upward wave cycle, although Trump-related news has the potential to completely reverse the trend at any moment.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often prone to revision.
2. If uncertain about the market outlook, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction does not and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Strategy Tips for the Japanese Yen

The first test of the 142.66 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already dropped significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I chose not to sell the dollar. The second test of 142.66 happened when the MACD was in oversold territory, which enabled Scenario #2 for buying to unfold. However, as you can see on the chart, the pair failed to show any significant upward momentum.

Today in the second half of the day, investors and traders will focus on key U.S. macroeconomic indicators related to the labor and housing markets. We are expecting weekly initial jobless claims and existing home sales data. A rise in jobless claims could signal a slowdown in hiring and a deteriorating economic outlook, while a decline would indicate labor market resilience.

The existing home sales report is an important indicator of the real estate market and consumer confidence. An increase in sales volume usually reflects growing housing demand and improving economic prospects, while a decrease may suggest market weakness and potential economic risks.

Together, these reports can provide valuable insights into the current state and outlook of the U.S. economy. Strong data would increase demand for the dollar, leading to a rise in the USD/JPY pair.

For intraday strategy, I'll continue to focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today after reaching the entry point around 142.60 (green line on the chart), with a target of 143.12 (thicker green line). At 143.12, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Buying the pair today only makes sense after very strong U.S. data. Important! Before entering a buy trade, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 142.29 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal. We can expect growth toward the 142.60 and 143.12 levels.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below 142.29 (red line on the chart), which would likely result in a sharp drop. The main target will be 141.73, where I plan to exit short trades and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD is below zero and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 142.60 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward 142.29 and 141.73 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry point for long positions
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth is unlikely above this level
• Thin red line – entry point for short positions
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline is unlikely below this level
• MACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold areas as reference when entering trades

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out before major economic reports are released to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit can be lost very quickly—especially if you don't follow money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3286 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which I believed limited the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy and missed the trade.

Positive data on the industrial orders balance supported the pound in the first half of the day. The index, which reflects the difference between companies reporting increases and decreases in orders, showed a reduced negative value, indicating improving sentiment in the industrial sector. This may be directly linked to easing inflationary pressures and the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in the coming months. Lower borrowing costs typically stimulate investment and consumer demand, which positively impacts manufacturing activity. Overall, the improvement in industrial order balance is an encouraging signal for the UK economy, though the sustainability of this trend will depend on various internal and external economic factors. The pound, supported by the positive data, may continue to strengthen if the favorable momentum in the manufacturing sector persists and no negative surprises emerge from the global economy.

In the second half of the day, we expect reports on initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the U.S., along with existing home sales figures. These macroeconomic indicators traditionally influence market sentiment and overall conditions. Jobless claims reflect the state of employment and indicate how many people have newly applied for government assistance due to job loss. A rise in this figure could weaken the dollar. Conversely, an increase in durable goods orders signals optimism among businesses and consumers, potentially spurring capital investment and production activity—positive for the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the 1.3322 entry point (green line on the chart), with the goal of rising toward 1.3362 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3362 level, I'll exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point reversal. Today's bullish continuation for the pound depends on weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3295 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and prompt a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3322 and 1.3362 may be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.3295 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick drop. The primary target will be 1.3261, where I will exit short positions and immediately enter long trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Sellers will likely emerge if strong U.S. data is released. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3322 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward 1.3295 and 1.3261 may follow.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price for long trades
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit (further growth beyond this point is unlikely)
• Thin red line – entry price for short trades
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to manually lock in profit (further decline beyond this point is unlikely)
• MACD Indicator – use overbought and oversold zones as confirmation signals for trade entry

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out before major economic reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stops, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't apply proper money management or trade with large volume.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1361 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy euros and missed the entire upward move.

The German economy is showing signs of stable development, which has had a positive impact on the euro. Surprisingly, the data exceeded economists' forecasts. The latest figures from the IFO Institute regarding business climate and economic outlook in Germany came in above expectations, indicating ongoing optimism and confidence among German businesses despite global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Positive developments in Germany's economic climate could significantly affect the entire eurozone by encouraging investment inflows, job creation, and increased consumer spending. Moreover, solid economic data from Germany may prompt the European Central Bank to reconsider its current monetary policy in favor of further easing.

In the second half of the day, we await figures on initial jobless claims and durable goods orders in the U.S. It is worth noting that markets are currently highly sensitive to any macroeconomic signals, and even minor deviations from expectations could trigger sharp moves. Special attention will also be paid to the core durable goods orders (excluding transportation), which is seen as a more accurate indicator of manufacturing activity. Additionally, traders are closely monitoring mortgage rate dynamics and their impact on existing home sales. The absence of a clear trend toward lower interest rates in the U.S. could restrain the housing market, which in turn may negatively affect investor sentiment.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to focus on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.1397 entry level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising toward 1.1435. At 1.1435, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. Buying the euro is advisable only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before entering a long position, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1372 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth toward 1.1397 and 1.1435 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after the pair reaches the 1.1372 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1328 level, where I plan to exit short positions and buy immediately in the opposite direction (looking for a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return today only in the case of strong U.S. data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1397 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.1372 and 1.1328 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – target price for Take Profit or manual profit-taking; above this level further growth is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – target price for Take Profit or manual profit-taking; below this level further decline is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, use overbought and oversold zones as confirmation signals

Important Note: Beginner traders in the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management or trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan—such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 24th (Review of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.3293 level and planned to use it as a reference for entering the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A breakout and retest of 1.3239 provided an entry point for long positions, which led to a rise of more than 20 points, although the pair didn't quite reach the target levels. The technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

Positive data on industrial order balances from the Confederation of British Industry supported the pound in the first half of the day, allowing it to rebound from weekly lows in hopes of resuming the bullish trend.

In the second half of the day, traders will focus on U.S. data: initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, and existing home sales. Only very strong numbers will bring back pressure on the pound. Otherwise, the bullish trend may continue.

In case of a pullback, I will act after a false breakout around the new support at 1.3292 (formed earlier today). This would give a good entry point for long positions with the aim of recovering to the 1.3333 resistance. A breakout and retest of this range from above would provide another entry point to target an update of 1.3375, which would strengthen the bullish market. The ultimate target will be the 1.3416 area, where I plan to take profit.

If GBP/USD falls and there is no bullish activity around 1.3292 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair will return. In that case, only a false breakout around 1.3251 will provide a reason to buy. I also plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from 1.3205, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers did not show up during the first half of the day, so there may be difficulties pushing the pair down during the U.S. session as well.

If the pound rises again, I plan to act near the 1.3333 resistance. A false breakout at this level will provide an entry point for short positions aiming for a decline toward 1.3292, where the moving averages are currently located. A breakout and retest of this range from below would trigger stop orders and pave the way to 1.3251. The ultimate target for sellers will be the 1.3205 area, where I plan to take profit.

If demand for the pound persists in the second half of the day and bears do not show activity around 1.3333, it's better to wait for a test of 1.3375 resistance. I will only open short positions there after a failed breakout. If there is no downward move even there, I will look for short entries on a rebound from 1.3416, targeting a 30–35 point correction.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – April 15:

The report showed a rise in short positions and a decrease in long ones. Interestingly, despite this, the pound continued to show confident growth against the dollar. However, this data lags behind market reality. The recent GBP/USD rally is directly linked to Trump's stance on tariffs and dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which puts more pressure on the dollar than it gives support to the pound. Long non-commercial positions decreased by 6,025 to 85,708 and short non-commercial positions rose by 4,776 to 79,199. The net position spread narrowed by 439.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: The pair is trading near the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating market indecision.

Note: The author analyzes these on the H1 chart, which may differ from the classic D1 moving averages.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower band around 1.3270 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Smooths volatility to determine the trend. Periods: 50 (yellow), 30 (green)
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA = 12, Slow EMA = 26, Signal SMA = 9
• Bollinger Bands: Measures volatility and price reversal points. Period = 20
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and institutions trading futures for profit
• Long non-commercial positions: Total open long positions held by speculators
• Short non-commercial positions: Total open short positions held by speculators
• Net non-commercial position: Difference between short and long non-commercial positions

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 24th (Review of the Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1358 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. The pair did rise, but it didn't reach the retest of 1.1358, so I didn't enter any trades. The technical picture has been revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

The IFO data from Germany exceeded economists' forecasts, prompting a rise in the euro. However, buyers have so far only managed to halt the bearish trend, not reverse it in their favor.

In the second half of the day, we await figures on initial jobless claims, durable goods orders, and existing home sales in the U.S. Only strong data will bring pressure back on EUR/USD, and I plan to use that.

In case of a decline, only a false breakout around the new support at 1.1335 would serve as a signal to buy EUR/USD with the prospect of resuming the bullish trend and a retest of 1.1415. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a valid long entry, with a move toward the 1.1487 area. The ultimate target will be 1.1571, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD declines and there's no activity around 1.1335, pressure on the euro will intensify, potentially triggering a deeper correction to 1.1267. I will only consider buying euro after a false breakout at that level. I also plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.1206, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro climbs again after the U.S. data, bears will need to show strength near 1.1415, where the moving averages also favor sellers. Only a false breakout at this level will be a signal to enter short positions with the goal of returning to 1.1335 — the support formed earlier today. A breakout and consolidation below this range would justify a move toward 1.1267, marking a fairly strong correction. The ultimate target for sellers will be 1.1206, where I plan to take profit. A test of this level would break the current bullish structure.

If EUR/USD rises during the second half of the day and sellers fail to show activity near 1.1415, buyers may push the pair to a new high of 1.1487. I will only sell there if the price fails to hold. I also plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.1571, targeting a downward correction of 30–35 points.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders):

The April 15 COT report showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short ones. As the EU and U.S. have yet to reach a trade deal, the euro continues to strengthen while the dollar weakens. Potential instability from Trump's attempt to remove Jerome Powell as Fed Chair also continues to pressure the dollar. Long non-commercial positions rose by 6,807 to 197,103 and short non-commercial positions fell by 2,493 to 127,823. The gap between long and short positions narrowed by 2,493.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is taking place around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The author uses H1 hourly chart moving averages, which may differ from classical daily moving average values on a D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: If the pair declines, the lower band near 1.1335 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Smooths out price fluctuations to identify trend direction. Periods: 50 (yellow), 30 (green)
• MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence. Fast EMA: 12, Slow EMA: 26, Signal SMA: 9
• Bollinger Bands: Measures volatility and possible price reversal points. Period: 20
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions trading futures for profit
• Long non-commercial positions: Total long positions held by speculators
• Short non-commercial positions: Total short positions held by speculators
• Net non-commercial position: Difference between long and short positions held by speculators.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 24-26, 2025: sell below 1.1435 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1358 within the downtrend channel formed on April 18. The pair is under bearish pressure. We believe the instrument has a long way to go to reach the bottom of the downtrend channel.

The euro is expected to rebound in the coming hours and reach 1.1429. On the H4 chart, it is technically reaching oversold levels. In view of this, we expect a recovery of the euro until it reaches the 21SMA or even the top of the bearish trend channel. Then, we can resume selling.

Should the euro pull back, it will be seen as a selling signal, with targets at 1.1358 and 1.1230. In the short term, we believe the euro could reach the psychological level of 1.10 around 5/8 Murray.

In March, the euro left a gap around 1.0362, and it could likely reach this area in the coming weeks. The key is to wait for the price to fall below the psychological level of 1.1000.

On the other hand, if the euro continues to rise, we should expect a breakout and consolidation above 1.1440. The bullish trend will then be confirmed, and EUR/USD could reach 1.15 and even 1.1580, and could eventually reach the 8/8 Murray around 1.1718.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to wait for the euro to recover to resistance levels around 1.1429 or 1.1435 to sell, with targets up to 1.1230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 24/04/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Earnings parade: From Adidas sneakers to Boeing jets, quarterly reports push the market

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Optimism returns to markets

U.S. stocks ended the day higher on Wednesday, helped by fresh hopes for progress in trade talks between Washington and Beijing. Investors responded to conciliatory signals from both sides, giving confidence in the prospect of easing economic tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Trump on the Fed: "Powell will stay"

An additional factor of support for the market was the calming statements of President Donald Trump. He dispelled fears about political pressure on the Federal Reserve System, emphasizing that he was not going to dismiss its head Jerome Powell. This strengthened the faith of market participants in the independence of the regulator.

Indices are growing, but modestly

The main stock indices - S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq - confidently gained momentum during the session, but moderated their growth by the close. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the existing tariffs between the US and China "cannot be sustainable in the long term", which also supported positive sentiment.

Tesla: Musk is leaving politics, but profits are falling

Tesla shares jumped by 5.3% after Elon Musk announced his intention to reduce interaction with the White House in order to focus on managing his businesses. However, the positive news background could not hide the financial difficulties: the company's net profit in the last quarter fell by 71%.

Boeing and General Dynamics: different directions

Boeing shares rose by 6.1% after the aircraft manufacturer reported a quarterly loss, which was lower than analysts expected. The company increased production and supply volumes, which helped smooth out financial losses.

At the same time, General Dynamics showed a 27% increase in profit in the first quarter thanks to a stable defense order. However, the decline in demand for business jets had a negative impact: the company's quotes fell by 3.3%.

Wall Street does not slow down

On Wednesday, American stock exchanges demonstrated a confident rally. The Dow Jones industrial average added 419.59 points, which corresponds to an increase of 1.07%, reaching 39,606.57. The broad S&P 500 rose 88.10 points, or 1.67%, to settle at 5,375.86. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted the biggest gain of the day, adding 2.5%, 407.63 points, to close at 16,708.05.

The rally amid political instability and trade uncertainty was a pleasant surprise for investors, especially given the jitters of recent weeks.

Airlines Under Pressure: Southwest Loses Its Orientation

Southwest Airlines has joined the ranks of carriers that have scrapped their financial guidance amid growing economic turbulence caused by trade policy uncertainty. The company acknowledged that it could not accurately assess the impact of external factors, including a potential escalation of tariffs. As a result, the carrier's shares have lost 4% of their value.

Early Trading: Futures Lose Heights

Despite a positive close, early trading on Thursday indicated caution among market participants. By 5:35 a.m. ET, Dow futures had lost 234 points (-0.59%), S&P 500 futures had fallen 26.75 points (-0.5%), and the Nasdaq 100 had dropped 126.25 points (-0.67%). This could indicate a correction after a strong rally, or signal new risks on the horizon.

Auto giants are losing value

Shares of U.S. automakers Ford and General Motors fell about 1% in pre-market trading. The reasons for the decline are the same: traders' concerns about geopolitical uncertainty and possible retaliatory measures from China.

IBM under attack: government contracts frozen

International Business Machines (IBM) found itself at the epicenter of negativity after announcing the suspension of 15 government contracts. This is due to the Trump administration's decision to cut spending as part of its economic agenda. Investors reacted painfully - the IT giant's quotes fell by 7.6%.

Inspiration from ServiceNow

Meanwhile, ServiceNow pleasantly surprised the market: the enterprise software developer reported quarterly profit that significantly exceeded analysts' expectations. The reaction was lightning fast — the company's shares soared by 9.2%, becoming one of the brightest stories of the day.

Stock exchanges held their breath

Investors are still waiting for the next move in the global trading game. Today, attention will be focused on the publication of quarterly results of several corporate heavyweights at once — among the main players of the day are Procter & Gamble, pharmaceutical giant Merck and tech brand Alphabet. These reports could set the tone for future market sentiment.

Decline amid uncertainty

European stock markets opened in the red on Thursday. The reason was a variety of corporate reports and continued investor wariness due to the unstable rhetorical background in the US-China trade conflict. The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.7% by morning. National indicators also closed in the red: the German DAX, the French CAC 40, the Spanish IBEX and the British FTSE showed a decline in the range of 0.3% to 0.9%.

The rebound was short-lived

Wednesday brought relief - the markets perked up after statements from Washington, which sounded in a more conciliatory tone. US Treasury spokesman Scott Bessent made it clear that the existing trade barriers between the US and China cannot be long-term. This helped stocks recover both on American exchanges and in Europe. However, the positive momentum did not last long: on Thursday, cautious sentiments again prevailed on the markets.

Investors withdraw capital from premium sectors

The shares of European companies focused on the luxury segment fell especially noticeably - the luxury brand index fell by 1.8%. The tech sector followed suit, losing 1.4%. The move was driven by weaker global demand and concerns that China's possible retaliatory measures would hit export-oriented companies hardest.

Recovering from the fall

Despite the current slump, the STOXX 600 has already recovered more than half of the losses it suffered earlier this month, when a sudden tariff tightening by the US sent markets down almost 18% from record levels.

Monetary policy in support mode

The European Central Bank took a step toward easing monetary policy last week, cutting its deposit rate by 25 basis points. The move is aimed at supporting the region's economy, which continues to be under pressure from external risks and weakening global demand. Markets are now confident that at least two more rate cuts will follow before the end of the year.

Adidas Off to a Strong Start

German sports giant Adidas pleased investors by publishing first-quarter results that significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts. The company's shares gained 1.8% on the back of strong sales and better-than-expected operating profit. The quarter's success was especially significant after a turbulent period associated with business restructuring and exiting some markets.

BNP Paribas No Surprises - and No Optimism

Shares in the eurozone's largest bank by assets, BNP Paribas, fell 3.1% after publishing its financial statements, in which quarterly profit matched market expectations. Despite the lack of negative surprises, investors took the result with a cool head - the market was clearly expecting more. General doubts about the stability of the banking sector against the backdrop of a volatile macroeconomic environment probably also played a role.

Kering Loses Weight

The French luxury segment representative, the Kering group, also suffered a setback. The company reported a sharper-than-expected drop in first-quarter revenue. Investors reacted immediately: the brand, which owns fashion houses such as Gucci and Balenciaga, plunged 5.8%. The decline in demand for luxury goods, especially in Asia, was a warning sign for the entire sector.

Nokia under pressure: a breakdown in rhythm

The biggest disappointment came from Finnish telecom giant Nokia. The company showed results that significantly lagged market forecasts: quarterly profit was lower than expected, and management warned of short-term disruptions caused by US tariffs. Against this backdrop, the shares fell 9.7%, becoming one of the hardest-hit stocks of the day in Europe.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Wall Street keeps White House in line

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The market is showing heightened sensitivity to any good news, but its best days are behind it. The value of US equities as a percentage of the MSCI All Country World Index peaked in December. According to Jefferies Financial Group, investors should brace for further declines. A similar pattern occurred with Japanese equities in 1989, which was followed by sweeping global changes. Something similar may be in store for the US.

Although US equities account for 60-70% of the world's total market capitalization, America's economy does not generate a comparable share of global wealth. As a result, capital is flowing out of the US into other countries, a trend that has been accelerated by Donald Trump's protectionist policies. This phenomenon reflects not only American weakness but also investors' growing appetite for investing in Europe, Asia, and other regions.

Dynamics of US and other stock indices

Since Donald Trump took office, the S&P 500 has fallen by around 10%, marking the worst performance in the first 100 days of any US president. It is no surprise that the Republican is growing anxious and is now backtracking on earlier decisions. After imposing tariffs on America's "Liberation Day," a 90-day pause was announced. Following his criticism of Jerome Powell, Trump announced that he did not actually plan to fire the Fed chair.

It seems Donald Trump is still glued to the S&P 500, and the market holds power over him. During his first term as president, the Republican repeatedly equated rallies in the index with his own effectiveness. With the president's well-known fixation on the stock market, some players are trying to exploit it. First came news of a tariff pause, which was later confirmed. Now, investors are rattled by rumors that the US may unilaterally roll back tariffs against China.

Although the US administration has denied the reports, there is rarely smoke without fire. What worked once may work again. Nevertheless, some traders chose to lock in profits after several days of gains.

Dynamics of US stock indices

In this environment, the risk of medium-term consolidation in the S&P 500 is growing. Bulls are eager to buy the dip, yet they remain wary of fresh tariff threats and the risk of a recession. Bears seize on the adverse backdrop but retreat quickly on positive White House headlines. Buyers and sellers are engaged in a tug-of-war, which typically leads to the formation of trading ranges for specific financial market assets.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 tested the 5,400 level in an attempt to activate a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. However, the bulls' offensive was repelled, and the broad market index closed below this critical level. If the price breaks below the low of 5,350, it could become a signal to build short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Stock Market on April 24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ lose momentum after rally

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Following the previous regular session, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 gained 1.67%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 2.50%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.07%.

However, pressure returned to the market during the Asian session. Asian indices broke their five-day winning streak after the brief global rally in risk assets faded amid mixed signals from the Trump administration about its plans for tariffs on China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday cast doubt on a timely resolution to the US-China trade war. As a result, Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.1% for the first time in four days. Gold jumped 1.4% amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. European stock index futures dropped 0.1%.

The global advance in equities on Wednesday, following sharp swings earlier this month, was supported by signs that President Donald Trump was reconsidering the most aggressive elements of his stance on trade and the Federal Reserve. However, it is clear that investors find it difficult to predict where markets will go next, given the flurry of headlines from various administration officials and Trump's frequent tariff disputes.

Trump indicated that the US is aiming for a fair deal with China, adding Wednesday evening that the country could introduce a new tariff rate within the next two to three weeks. The administration is also considering reducing certain tariffs targeting the automotive industry, which automaker executives have warned would severely impact profits and jobs.

In an interview, Bessent also said that Trump had not offered to remove US tariffs on China unilaterally. When asked whether the president's proposal to de-escalate was one-sided, he replied, "Absolutely not." The Treasury Secretary stated that the administration is weighing many factors regarding China beyond tariffs, including non-tariff barriers and state subsidies. He also said that the strongest relationships between Washington and Beijing are at the top level, and there are no timelines for engagement. A complete rebalancing of trade could take two to three years.

In the commodity market, oil declined as investors assessed the prospects of increased OPEC+ supply and the impact of ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.

Technical Outlook for the S&P 500:

Today, the main task for buyers is to overcome the immediate resistance at $5,399. This would help continue the upward move and open the way to a new level at $5,443. An equally important objective for the bulls is to regain control above $5,483, which would further strengthen buyers' positions. If the index moves lower amid weakening risk appetite, buyers will need to show up around $5,342. A break below that would quickly push the instrument back to $5,305 and open the way to $5,269.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The Japanese yen maintains a bullish tone despite certain headwinds and remains in focus as renewed global risk aversion fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

Diminishing hopes for a swift resolution to the U.S.–China trade conflict, along with speculation that Japan may reach a deal with the U.S. and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates, are all supporting demand for the yen. Additionally, the widening policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the BoJ adds further pressure on the dollar, favoring the strength of the Japanese currency.

Recent comments by Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato have highlighted the country's growing concerns over U.S. tariff policy and its impact on financial markets. The uncertainty created by these tariffs could indeed pressure Japan's economy, a concern echoed by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who signaled that monetary policy measures might be necessary.

The visit of Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa to the U.S. for tariff negotiations may prove to be a key step toward mitigating negative effects on Japan's economy. Still, investors remain optimistic about the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike in 2025, reflecting confidence in a sustained rise in inflation above the 2% target.

Meanwhile, expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are driving a significant divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. Traders are already pricing in a renewed Fed easing cycle, expected to begin in June, with at least three rate cuts forecast by the end of the year.

Technical Outlook:

• The overnight close above the 143.00 level serves as an important bullish signal for USD/JPY. Hourly chart oscillators remain in positive territory, potentially sustaining buying interest around the 142.45–142.40 zone.
• A drop below the psychological 142.00 level could expose the pair to further downside toward the 141.10–141.00 area, with additional support seen around the 100- and 200-hour SMAs, and an intermediate floor at 140.50. A break below the key 140.00 mark would pave the way for deeper losses.

On the other hand, a renewed push above 143.00 may encounter resistance near 143.55 or yesterday's high. A sustained breakout above 144.00 would likely trigger a stronger rebound in USD/JPY.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is showing positive momentum as it attempts to hold above the $3300 level, indicating growing investor interest in this traditional safe-haven asset.

The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations—highlighted by yesterday's comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—suggests that the current standoff may last longer than initially expected. Additionally, potential consequences of Donald Trump's tariff policies are creating a backdrop of elevated demand for gold.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book points to rising uncertainty in the economy due to shifting tariffs, which could limit further dollar gains in the coming months. Mixed data on consumer spending and signs of cooling in the labor market are also contributing to a more cautious outlook. The weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of more aggressive easing from the Fed continue to support precious metal prices.

At the same time, lingering hopes for a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China are helping to sustain a degree of market optimism, which may cap gold's upside in the near term.

Technical Outlook:

• $3370 is emerging as a key resistance level. A sustained breakout above it would open the door to higher targets, including $3400, followed by stronger resistance at $3425, and the broader target at $3500 would remain in play.
• However, if gold falls below $3300, this may signal a potential pullback. The first major support lies at $3260, and a break below this level would be critical, paving the way for further downside toward $3250 and possibly the key psychological level of $3200.

Still, with oscillators on the daily chart holding firmly in positive territory, the broader path of least resistance for gold remains upward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses

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According to a senior official at the European Central Bank, President Donald Trump has drawn the entire world into a game where everyone ends up losing — referring to his trade policy, which is based on flawed economic reasoning.

"Trump's trade tirades are slowing down economic growth, including in the U.S., and threaten to undermine financial stability," said Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, during a speech in New York.

Villeroy called for de-escalation to avoid a spiral of rising tariffs. "Now more than ever, it's important to speak the truth across the Atlantic, fully assess the damage from the trade war, and pave the way for a possible positive dialogue," said Villeroy, one of the most influential central bankers in Europe.

His comments were among the strongest from a European partner in defense and economic matters. It's clear that the Trump administration's reliance on protectionist measures is likely to backfire. The tariffs, initially intended to shield American manufacturers, have already led to higher import costs and, consequently, rising consumer prices. This reduces household purchasing power and weakens consumer demand — a critical driver of economic growth. Beyond the domestic impact, Trump's trade wars are severely harming global trade. The uncertainty caused by constant threats of new tariffs and retaliatory measures deters investment and slows global economic growth.

Villeroy also challenged Trump's claim that the European Union was created to hurt America, stating that the bloc was formed to bring lasting peace, democracy, and a market economy to Europe.

His remarks came just hours after the International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded its forecasts for global economic growth for this year and the next, warning that things could worsen further if a full-scale trade war erupts.

Earlier on Tuesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde urged EU governments to reduce internal trade barriers to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Clearly, the uncertainty around Trump's trade intentions has caught the European economy at a vulnerable time. Manufacturing and private consumption had only just begun to show signs of recovery after months of sluggish demand driven by high inflation and energy challenges — now that recovery is at risk due to escalating trade tensions.

"International trade is not a zero-sum game where one country's gain must come at another's expense," said Villeroy. "On the contrary, it is the most efficient way to achieve shared prosperity through the exchange of goods and services, ideas, talent, and innovation."

He also noted that the U.S. should acknowledge the significant growth in its trade surplus with Europe in services in recent years, and emphasized that a value-added tax is not the same as a customs duty, as the Trump administration suggests. Villeroy concluded that there's still room for pragmatic multilateralism between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to financial stability, international payments, and cybersecurity.

It's worth highlighting that Trump's trade war has significantly impacted the currency markets. In normal times, investors might flock to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset — but now, capital is clearly flowing out of dollar-denominated assets and into the euro and British pound. Many traders and investors are wary of Trump's aggressive stance, which they fear could push the U.S. economy into recession.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: At present, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only a solid breakout here would allow targeting a test of 1.1430. From there, a move toward 1.1500 is possible, though achieving this without support from large market participants may prove difficult. The ultimate upside target remains the high at 1.1570.

If the instrument declines, meaningful buying activity is expected only around 1.1280. If no support emerges there, it would be reasonable to wait for a test of the 1.1210 low or consider long positions from 1.1150.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: For GBP/USD, buyers must overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only this would open the way toward 1.3350, which is a challenging level to breach. The ultimate bullish target lies at 1.3416.

In case of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3240. A successful break of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and drive GBP/USD toward 1.3205, with potential to test 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Desperately Needs a Deal with China

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The U.S. dollar surged sharply against most major currencies after President Donald Trump stated that he plans to be very "courteous" with China in any trade talks and that tariffs would be reduced if the two countries can reach an agreement. This suggests that Trump may be stepping back from his hardline stance toward Beijing amid ongoing market volatility.

"Tariffs will be significantly reduced, but they certainly won't be zero," Trump said. "We will be very courteous, and they will be very courteous, and we'll see what happens."

Trump also noted that he sees no need to say he will take a tough line with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and that he would not bring up the topic of Covid-19 during the talks—a subject that is extremely politically sensitive in Beijing.

It's worth noting that Trump's remarks came against the backdrop of a collapse in U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar since he imposed broad tariffs on April 2, followed by a 90-day grace period for most countries. The 145% tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese goods earlier this year remain in place, though exceptions have been made for computers and popular consumer electronics. Yesterday, it was also reported that certain exemptions would be extended to the automotive industry.

Clearly, Trump is panicking over the market selloff and dollar weakness, but he urgently needs a deal. So far, China has not officially responded to Trump's promises to behave courteously, but news agency Cailian described it as a sign that Trump is already softening his position on his signature tariff policy.

Earlier this month, Beijing indicated that it wants to see a series of concrete steps from the Trump administration before agreeing to any talks—particularly the restraint of disparaging remarks from members of his cabinet. Chinese authorities have also expressed dissatisfaction with comments made by Vice President J.D. Vance about Chinese farmers, which one diplomat labeled as ignorant and disrespectful.

In a speech yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the world's two largest economies will need to find ways to de-escalate, and that this is likely to happen in the near future. Bessent also said that decoupling from China is not the U.S.'s objective. However, the Treasury Secretary believes that a comprehensive deal could take two to three years. He reiterated his view that China has suppressed its consumer economy in favor of manufacturing at the expense of the U.S., adding that any agreement would need to rebalance trade in a way that allows the U.S. to boost domestic production.

As mentioned above, the U.S. dollar reacted to all of this with strength—something many market participants had been anticipating, as the overbought euro and British pound clearly lost appeal as a result.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: At present, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on regaining the 1.1360 level. Only a breakout here would allow targeting a test of 1.1430. From there, a move toward 1.1500 is possible, though accomplishing this without support from large market players may be quite difficult. The ultimate upside target remains the high at 1.1570.

In case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1280. If no support is found there, it may be worth waiting for a retest of the 1.1210 low or considering long positions from the 1.1150 level.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: For GBP/USD, buyers must break above the immediate resistance at 1.3300. Only then can they target 1.3350, which remains a difficult level to break. The most extended bullish target is the 1.3416 zone.

If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3240. A successful break of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and drive GBP/USD toward the 1.3205 low, with a potential move down to 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for April 24

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S&P 500 gains amid Asian uncertainty

US stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, posted solid gains on optimism about progress in trade negotiations. Despite the lack of a clear position from the White House, investor sentiment is buoyed by speculation over a potential reduction in tariffs by the United States.

Meanwhile, Asian markets are under pressure from mixed signals regarding tariffs. Uncertainty around the Trump administration's actions continues to curb activity across global exchanges and heighten short-term risks. Follow the link for details.

Declining US share of global market capitalization

The American market is showing signs of weakness: stocks are losing their luster due to Trump's protectionist policies and unstable trade relations, undermining investor confidence. This is contributing to a shrinking US share in global market capitalization.

The S&P 500 has entered a consolidation phase, with buyers and sellers battling for control, creating a zone of uncertainty. Volatility remains high, and market sentiment is mixed. Follow the link for details.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers the best conditions for trading stock indices, equities, and bonds, allowing you to profit from market shifts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Eases Pressure on China

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The wave pattern on the 24-hour chart for #SPX is generally clear. The global five-wave structure doesn't even fit on the terminal screen at the smallest scale. In simple terms, U.S. stock indices had been rising for a very long time—but we know that trends alternate. At this point, the upward trend segment appears to be complete. The instrument has made four unsuccessful attempts to break through the 6,093 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci from wave 4. In my view, we will soon see the continuation of a corrective wave series. The U.S. stock market had been overheated for too long, and Trump triggered a chain reaction.

Switching to the 4-hour chart (image above), we can observe the development of a new downward trend segment, which could be quite extensive. The fifth wave is still missing from the structure, so I believe the decline in the S&P 500 index is not yet over. It's also important to keep in mind that any new tariffs introduced by Trump—or retaliatory tariffs imposed on the U.S.—could logically trigger new rounds of sell-offs in the U.S. stock market. Currently, the presumed wave 4 is still forming and may turn out to be quite complex in its internal structure.

The #SPX has recovered sharply, but the downtrend formation is still in progress. We are now witnessing the construction of a complex corrective structure within the presumed wave 4. I see no signs of a trend reversal at this time.

The recent recovery in the S&P 500 is primarily due to Trump's softened rhetoric regarding the trade war. Recall that a couple of weeks ago, Trump announced a 90-day grace period for 75 countries previously hit with import tariffs. Earlier this week, the U.S. President stated that tariffs on China would be reduced. It's still unclear by how much, when, or under what conditions, but the tone toward China—and many other countries—has clearly shifted.

The market sensed that the harshest trade war scenario may be avoided, and stopped selling off U.S. stocks. However, it's too early to speak of full de-escalation, as Trump is not planning to repeal all tariffs. I also doubt that every country will succeed in reaching trade deals with the U.S. I'm particularly concerned about the outcomes for the European Union and China, where negotiations remain extremely difficult.

As such, the recent market recovery is quite logical, but further growth will depend on positive news related to trade tensions. If such news is limited, continued growth in the S&P 500 becomes questionable.

Summary

Based on the analysis of #SPX, I conclude that the upward trend segment has ended. Trump continues to make decisions that threaten the stability of the U.S. economy and American corporations (e.g., trade wars, tariffs, import restrictions, and export controls), which is why we are now observing the start of a new downward trend. The "bubble" in the U.S. stock market had been inflating for years—and Trump has popped it.

The 4-hour chart also supports the likelihood of further declines. At this point, we expect the formation of wave 5, which implies another leg down, targeting the area around 4,614.

On the higher time frame, the wave structure is much clearer: a clean five-wave structure, including a five-wave substructure within wave 5. The upward trend segment is complete. Therefore, I would prepare for a new long-term downward segment, which is already underway.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift unpredictably.
2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in any trend direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be effectively combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC/USD Analysis – April 24th: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Revival

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD has become somewhat more complex. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed its formation around the $75,000 mark. Following this, a rather strong upward movement began, which could be the start of a new impulsive trend. Currently, the first wave appears to be complete, so a corrective wave 2 or b should be expected next. After that, Bitcoin's upward movement will likely resume, at least within the framework of wave c.

Bitcoin has long been supported by a steady flow of news about institutional investment, government involvement, and even pension funds. However, Trump's policies have recently driven some investors out of the market. Nonetheless, with the U.S. stock market and bond market in decline, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a hedge, as it is less influenced by Trump's decisions. Once again, Bitcoin is being viewed as a "crisis hedge," increasing the probability of renewed growth for the digital asset.

BTC/USD has surged by $19,000 in a short period, which is substantial considering the current global economic instability. The reasons for this rally are varied, but each of them can be reasonably questioned. For instance, Bitcoin began rising after reports emerged that Trump is not planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But how exactly does Powell's job security relate to Bitcoin?

Many economists now expect the Fed to begin cutting rates. However, Powell has consistently stated that the FOMC will respond to changes in economic data, not to shifts in Trump's trade policies. Some are even anticipating a new round of quantitative easing (QE), which would inject new liquidity into the economy—similar to what we saw during the COVID-19 era. While such policies could benefit cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, there is no sign of QE being launched yet. Moreover, it is highly questionable whether the Fed—after years of battling inflation—would now take steps that could reignite it.

So, much of the reasoning behind Bitcoin's rally seems speculative or, at the very least, highly debatable. Based on this, I believe we are more likely to see the formation of a corrective wave structure, rather than a new impulsive one. As I've stated in previous months, a prolonged and complex corrective phase still lies ahead.

Final Thoughts

Based on the analysis of BTC/USD, I conclude that the downward segment of the trend is still developing. All signs point toward a complex, multi-month correction. Therefore, I have not recommended buying Bitcoin before, and I see even less reason to do so now. In my view, the best approach remains looking for selling opportunities.

At this stage, Bitcoin appears to be forming a corrective upward sequence of waves, which has not yet completed. Once wave c concludes, I would begin to seek short positions, targeting the $75,000 level.

On the higher wave scale, we can still see a completed five-wave upward structure. What is currently unfolding looks like the beginning of a corrective, downward phase or potentially a full-blown bearish cycle.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often unpredictable.
2. If uncertainty dominates the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction—always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Fed Needs More Time to Assess the Situation

.While Donald Trump is attempting to reach an understanding with China, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that the current tariff policy is likely to exert upward pressure on prices and may have a more significant economic impact than previously anticipated.

Kugler emphasized that she supports keeping borrowing costs unchanged and will continue to do so until inflation risks subside and economic activity and employment show stability. "The economy is facing heightened uncertainty, with risks of rising inflation and risks to employment," Kugler said in a speech prepared for an event at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. "This month, we learned that the tariffs will be much larger than previously expected," she noted. "As a result, the economic effects of the tariffs and the uncertainty they bring are also likely to be greater than previously assumed."

To recap, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners earlier this month, including levies exceeding 145% on Chinese goods. While considerable uncertainty remains surrounding the tariffs—especially after Trump said yesterday he might reduce trade surcharges on China—economists generally expect the measures to weigh on economic growth and stoke inflation in the U.S.

During a Q&A session following her prepared remarks, Kugler said she did not view the recent market turmoil as a sign that the public is losing confidence in the central bank. "The uncertainty is not coming from us," she said. The policymaker focused much of her speech on specific monetary policy challenges. She stressed the importance of allowing time for the Fed's policy to fully assess the state of the economy, adding that such lags are crucial as officials need to be proactive in understanding the effects of various shocks. "For monetary policy, it's essential to examine all available data, including market indicators, surveys, and anecdotal reports, to gain an early understanding of what's happening in the economy. As I've mentioned, it takes time for Trump's policies to impact the economy," Kugler said.

Current Technical Picture for EUR/USD

Buyers should now be focusing on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only after that will a test of 1.1430 become feasible. From there, the pair could reach toward 1.1500, although doing so without the support of major players will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1570 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer interest only near 1.1280. If there is no activity at that level, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.1210 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1150.

Current Technical Picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers must break through the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only then will they be able to target 1.3350, which remains a tough level to breach. The ultimate upside target is the 1.3416 level. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3240. Should they succeed, a break below that range would deal a significant blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3205 low, with the potential for a further move down to 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Powell Can Sleep Soundly

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Markets responded with gains, and the US dollar strengthened against the euro and other risk assets after US President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite his disappointment that the central bank isn't taking more aggressive action to cut interest rates. "Never," Trump told reporters. "No, I'm not going to fire him. I just wish he would be a little more aggressive in his thinking about lowering interest rates."

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, told reporters last Friday that Trump had been reviewing whether he could dismiss Powell, following a series of social media posts and public comments criticizing the Fed. Last week, the president launched another tirade against Powell, right before the European Central Bank cut its key rate by a quarter point to 2.25% — about half the Fed's current rate of 4.25–4.5%.

Trump has repeatedly complained that the Fed is not cutting interest rates quickly enough, repeating his criticism during a recent speech and insisting that the market turmoil surrounding his comments was exaggerated. "We believe now is the time to cut rates, and we'd like the Fed Chair to do that in a timely manner — not too late," Trump said.

For reference, Powell and his colleagues have so far kept interest rates unchanged after cutting them by a full percentage point in the final months of 2024. Policymakers are waiting to see how the economy responds to the Trump administration's latest moves on tariffs, tax reforms, deregulation, and immigration.

Most Fed officials have stated that current policy is in a good place and that the central bank needs to maintain some pressure to keep inflation in check, which has remained above the 2% target for four years.

The US economy grew at a healthy 2.8% last year, but economists now believe tariffs will slow growth by the end of 2025. While the Fed traditionally cuts rates to support the economy in such cases, Powell and some of his colleagues have indicated that the central bank may have to prioritize the inflation side of its dual mandate, especially as tariffs could once again spur inflation.

In addition, the US dollar showed increased stability against a range of other currencies, as the White House said the administration was making progress in negotiations on trade deals aimed at reducing tariffs announced earlier this month.

Current EUR/USD Technical Picture

Buyers must focus on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only then will a test of 1.1430 become possible. From there, the path may open toward 1.1500, although reaching it without the support of large market players could be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1570 high. If the instrument declines, I expect major buyer activity only near 1.1280. If there's no interest there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low around 1.1210 — or consider entering long from 1.1150.

Current GBP/USD Technical Picture

Pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only then will it be possible to aim for 1.3350, a level that has proven difficult to break. The furthest target is the 1.3416 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3240. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3205 low, with a possible move toward 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.