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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for December 6-9, 2024: sell below $2,656 (200 EMA - 4/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,636.20, below the 21 SMA, and below the symmetrical triangle pattern.

Yesterday, gold made a decisive break of the symmetrical triangle pattern and reached a low of 2,612. Since then, we have seen a strong technical bounce. If gold continues to rise, it could find an obstacle to overcome at about 2,644.

If gold reaches the area between 2,650 and 2,656 in the next few hours and if it fails to consolidate above 4/8 Murray, it could be seen as a signal to resume selling, with targets at 2,617 and eventually at 2578.

The outlook remains negative as long as gold trades below 2,656. Any technical bounce will be seen as an opportunity to sell. The goal of the gold bears is to cover the GAP that was left around 2,562.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 6-9, 2024: sell below 1.0620 (200 EMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0579, above the 21 SMA, and below the 3/8 Murray with a bullish bias.

Yesterday during the American session, the euro managed to cover the gap left around 1.0576 and is now consolidating around this area. If the bullish force prevails, EUR/USD could reach 1.0620 or 1.0643 (200 EMA) in the next few hours.

A technical correction is likely to occur in the next few days as the eagle indicator is reaching the overbought zone. We believe the outlook will be negative for the euro below 1.0643. So, the instrument could reach 1.0417 in the short term where it left a gap on November 21.

A break and consolidation below 1.0532 could be seen as a bearish signal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 6th (U.S. Session)

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Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.12 price level occurred when the MACD indicator began its upward movement from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar and supporting the ongoing uptrend. As a result, the pair rose by approximately 35 points, reaching the target level of 150.48.

Several critical U.S. economic reports are expected in the second half of the day, including unemployment rate data and nonfarm payrolls, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. Strong data will likely boost interest in the U.S. dollar. This would reinforce the bullish momentum observed earlier in the day.

Additionally, FOMC members Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, and Mary Daly will deliver speeches. These remarks play a critical role in shaping market perceptions of U.S. monetary policy and economic outlooks. Michelle Bowman, known for her banking sector expertise, will likely discuss monetary policy trajectories and current economic conditions. Similarly, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, is expected to highlight the social and economic costs of higher interest rates.

For intraday strategy, I will prioritize Scenario #1, as I expect strong directional movements despite the MACD readings.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at 150.81 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 151.26 (thicker green line on the chart). At 151.26, I will exit long positions and open short positions, anticipating a price retracement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A continued rise in the pair is expected if U.S. data are strong.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2

I also plan to buy USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of the 150.52 price level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and initiate a market reversal upwards. Short-term target levels are 150.81 and 151.26.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1

I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below 150.52 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 150.00, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions, anticipating a 20–25 point price retracement. Downward pressure on the dollar may emerge if U.S. data disappoint.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2

I also plan to sell USD/JPY after two consecutive tests of the 150.81 price level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expected target levels are 150.52 and 150.00.

Chart Details

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the USD/JPY pair.
• Thick green line: Estimated price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the USD/JPY pair.
• Thick red line: Estimated price for Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Pay attention to overbought and oversold zones when determining market entry points.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Avoid trading before major fundamental reports to reduce the risk of sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to protect your capital. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 6th (U.S. Session)

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Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.2756 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero mark. This limited the pair's upward potential, and for this reason, I did not buy the pound.

The British pound remains stable in currency markets, supported by investor optimism, despite the lack of significant UK statistics. The key factor that may pressure the pound today is U.S. unemployment data and nonfarm payroll changes.

These data points are expected to provide insights into the U.S. economy's current state and indicate trends regarding future interest rate decisions. Unemployment, as a key indicator, sheds light on labor market health and consumer activity. If the figures underperform expectations, they could strengthen the pound by weakening the dollar.

Additionally, attention should be paid to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. The consumer sentiment index measures economic health and confidence, based on household surveys of financial well-being, job stability, and general economic conditions. Lower values in this index could signal consumer pessimism, potentially dampening consumer spending and putting short-term pressure on the dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on Scenario #1, even considering the MACD indicator readings, as I anticipate strong directional movements.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1

Today, buying the pound is possible at 1.2768 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2809 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2809, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions, anticipating a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rise in the pound today is likely only after very weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2

I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2745, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Target levels are 1.2768 and 1.2809.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1

I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.2745 (red line on the chart), potentially leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.2704, where I will exit sales and immediately open buy positions, anticipating a 20–25 point pullback. Sellers will likely emerge only if U.S. economic data significantly exceed expectations.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2

I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.2768, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Target levels are 1.2745 and 1.2704.

Key Chart Elements

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the GBP/USD pair.
• Thick green line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the GBP/USD pair.
• Thick red line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Use the MACD's overbought and oversold zones for guidance when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions with caution. Before significant fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders, to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing approach for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 6th (U.S. Session)

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Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0582 price level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to rise from the zero mark. This confirmed a valid entry point for anticipating further euro growth. However, as shown on the chart, the bullish market failed to gain significant momentum, and there are clear reasons for this.

Upcoming data will be critical. A rise in unemployment, given the current state of the U.S. economy, could place significant pressure on the Federal Reserve. Traders are already pricing in potential monetary policy easing, which may cause short-term currency fluctuations. While lower rates typically stimulate economic activity, their effectiveness may be limited in the face of rising unemployment risks. Weak labor market data also raises concerns about consumer demand, as well as overall business conditions. Job cuts could lead to lower consumer spending, further worsening the economy.

Additionally, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to discuss the latest data, offering traders clearer insights into their next steps.

For intraday strategy, I will prioritize Scenario #1 despite the MACD indicator readings, as I anticipate strong and directional movements.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1

Today, buying the euro is possible at 1.0588 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0631. At 1.0631, I plan to exit the market and open sell positions in anticipation of a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rise in the euro today is likely only after weak U.S. labor market data.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2

I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0565, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Target levels will be 1.0588 and 1.0631.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1

I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0565 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0527, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in anticipation of a 20–25 point pullback. Pressure on the pair will persist if U.S. labor market data comes in stronger than expected.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2

I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0588, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. Target levels will be 1.0565 and 1.0527.

Key Chart Elements

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the EUR/USD pair.
• Thick green line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the EUR/USD pair.
• Thick red line: Target price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator: Focus on overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions with caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to protect your capital. Without stop-loss orders, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the USD/CAD pair is regaining positive momentum as lower crude oil prices weaken the Canadian dollar.

Crude oil prices remain under pressure for the third consecutive day due to concerns over a potential supply glut and slowing global demand, particularly in China, the world's largest importer.

OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies) has delayed planned production increases until April 2025. Additionally, the full phase-out of production cuts has been extended until the end of 2026. This weakens the commodity-linked Canadian dollar, providing gradual support for the USD/CAD pair.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions, U.S. economic resilience, and hopes for expansionary policies under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may support crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remains stagnant near multi-week lows. Dollar bulls are awaiting the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, which is scheduled for release during the North American session. This data will shape expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, influencing the short-term price action of the U.S. dollar and providing fresh directional momentum for USD/CAD.

Additionally, speeches from prominent FOMC members could induce market volatility, creating trading opportunities in USD/CAD. However, these speeches may overshadow Canada's employment report. A stronger-than-expected jobs report in Canada could lower expectations for further Bank of Canada rate cuts in December. This, in turn, may discourage bearish sentiment toward the Canadian dollar.

Technical Analysis

Bullish indicators on the daily chart suggest the potential for further gains. However, repeated failures this week near the 1.4100 psychological level warrant caution for bulls. Sustained strength beyond this level could propel USD/CAD toward the multi-month high of 1.4180, last reached in November. The momentum may extend further toward the 1.4200 psychological level.

On the other hand, a break below the 1.4000 psychological level would expose USD/CAD to continued retracement from its multi-year highs. Spot prices could decline toward the 1.3955 support level and potentially reach the previous week's swing low near 1.3925. Below this, the 1.3900 round level comes into focus, and a break below it could drag spot prices to November's lows.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance:

• 1.4100 (psychological level)
• 1.4180 (multi-month high from November)
• 1.4200 (psychological level)

Support:

• 1.4000 (psychological level)
• 1.3955 (intermediate support)
• 1.3925 (last week's low)
• 1.3900 (psychological level)

Conclusion

The trajectory of the USD/CAD pair will largely depend on U.S. labor market data and Canadian employment figures, as well as evolving crude oil price dynamics.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on December 6th (Review of Morning Trades). Pound Rallies and Hits Weekly High

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2767 level as a key area for making trading decisions. We will review the 5-minute chart to analyze the developments. The rise and subsequent false breakout at this level provided a good selling opportunity, leading to a 15-point decline by the time of writing. Earlier, a false breakout near the 1.2740 support level generated a strong signal, allowing for a 25-point gain. The technical picture has been revised for the second half of the day.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

The pound continues to rally despite the absence of significant UK economic data. However, its trajectory will depend on U.S. reports on the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and average hourly earnings. Weaker-than-expected indicators could help the pound break above its weekly high. Additionally, pay attention to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations. On the other hand, strong U.S. statistics could boost dollar demand, leading to a decline in GBP/USD.

The 1.2741 support level will be critical for buyers to defend. If GBP/USD falls, I will look for long positions after a false breakout at this level, aiming for a recovery towards the 1.2770 resistance. A breakout above this resistance, followed by a retest, could offer another entry point for long positions, targeting 1.2800. The ultimate target will be the 1.2827 level, where I plan to take profits.

If GBP/USD declines and there is no activity from buyers near 1.2741, the momentum will shift to the bears, increasing the likelihood of a deeper drop toward the end of the week. A false breakout near 1.2714 would be the only suitable condition for opening long positions. Alternatively, I will consider buying GBP/USD on a rebound from 1.2688, aiming for an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Pressure on the pound could return if U.S. labor market statistics significantly exceed expectations. In this case, defending the 1.2770 resistance will remain a key objective for sellers. I will open short positions only after observing a false breakout at this level. This approach would provide a selling opportunity, targeting the 1.2741 support level, where the moving averages currently favor buyers.

A breakout below 1.2741, followed by a retest from below, could trigger further declines, leading to a move toward 1.2714. The final target for sellers would be the 1.2688 level, where I plan to take profits. If weaker U.S. data sustains demand for the pound and GBP/USD rises while sellers remain inactive around 1.2770, buyers could gain further momentum, pushing the pair toward the 1.2800 resistance. In this scenario, I will sell only after a false breakout at this level. If there is no downward movement even at 1.2800, I will look for short positions near 1.2827, targeting a 30–35 point correction.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights:

As of November 26, the COT report showed the following:

• A reduction of 3,254 long positions, leaving the total at 98,459.
• A significant increase in short positions (+15,427 to 76,825).

The Bank of England's decision to refrain from additional rate cuts has been unfavorable for pound buyers, although under normal circumstances, such a move would support the currency. Weak UK economic data continues to exert downward pressure on GBP/USD, while inflation concerns and potential U.S. tariffs add further uncertainty for traders and investors.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading remains above the 30- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting continued growth for the pair.Note: The moving averages are based on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the standard definition of daily moving averages used on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands near 1.2741 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Identifies trends by smoothing out volatility and noise.
  • Period 50: Yellow on the chart.
  • Period 30: Green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): A momentum indicator that highlights trend direction.
  • Fast EMA: Period 12.
  • Slow EMA: Period 26.
  • SMA: Period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: An indicator that identifies potential support and resistance levels.
  • Period: 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, including individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net Non-commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on December 6th (Review of Morning Trades). Key U.S. Labor Market Reports

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the importance of the 1.0595 level and planned market entry decisions based on it. We will review the 5-minute chart to analyze the developments. The rise and subsequent formation of a false breakout near 1.0595 provided a good entry point for selling, leading to a 20-point decline in the EUR/USD pair by the time of writing. The technical analysis for the second half of the day remains unchanged.

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

Today, the most critical U.S. labor market report is scheduled for release. The report will include data on the unemployment rate and changes in nonfarm payrolls. An increase in unemployment and a lower number of new jobs would create an opportunity to buy the euro and sell the dollar. Given recent statements by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, weak U.S. statistics could fuel expectations of interest rate cuts at the next Federal Reserve meeting. Conversely, strong data could result in a significant drop in the euro.

In the event of strong data, I will focus on the 1.0560 support level, which was not reached during the morning session. A false breakout at this level would create conditions to increase long positions, targeting a rise to 1.0595, a level that previously failed to break. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range would confirm a valid entry point for buying, aiming for an update to 1.0625. The ultimate goal would be the 1.0653 high, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level would further reinforce the euro's bullish trend.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0560 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair could increase, confining it to its current trading range. In such a scenario, I will only enter long positions after observing a false breakout near 1.0535. Alternatively, I plan to buy immediately on a rebound from 1.0507, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

If unemployment data disappoints (indicating higher unemployment) and the pair rises, defending the 1.0595 resistance level will remain a key objective for sellers in the second half of the day. A false breakout at this level, similar to the one discussed earlier, would offer an entry point for short positions, targeting the 1.0560 support level, where the moving averages currently favor sellers. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, would provide another opportunity to sell, with the target being the 1.0535 low. The final target would be the 1.0507 area, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and there is no bearish activity near 1.0595, I will delay selling until the pair tests the next resistance level at 1.0625. I also plan to sell there but only after a failed consolidation attempt. Alternatively, I will sell immediately on a rebound from 1.0653, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights:

As of November 26, the COT report showed the following:

• A significant increase in short positions (+15,481 to 212,343).
• A modest rise in long positions (+2,029 to 156,334).

Fed policies are increasingly leaning toward cautious rate cuts, which enhances the appeal of the U.S. dollar over risk assets such as the euro. The widening gap between long and short positions reflects a growing bearish sentiment toward the euro.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is taking place above the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating attempts by the euro to continue its upward trend.

Note: The moving averages are analyzed on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from standard daily moving averages used on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands near 1.0560 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Identifies current trends by smoothing volatility and noise.
  • Period 50: Yellow on the chart.
  • Period 30: Green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): A trend-following momentum indicator.
  • Fast EMA: Period 12.
  • Slow EMA: Period 26.
  • SMA: Period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: A volatility indicator that identifies potential support and resistance levels.
  • Period: 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Long Non-commercial Positions: The total long positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short Non-commercial Positions: The total short positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Net Non-commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: December 6 – The Pause is Over, Time to Get to Work

.On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 323.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0532, with modest upward movement toward the 261.8% retracement level at 1.0662. However, the key point is that the last high wasn't decisively broken. Even if it's surpassed by a few or even several dozen points, it won't be enough to declare the bearish trend over. At the moment, this appears to be an extended correction.

The wave structure is clear:

• The most recent completed upward wave failed to break the previous high.
• The most recent downward wave didn't breach the last low.

This indicates the continuation of the bearish trend. Bulls have lost momentum in the market and are unable to regain control. For the bearish trend to reverse, the pair must rise above 1.0611, a level it has yet to breach.

Thursday's news was relatively weak, but earlier in the week, there were numerous reports. Traders seem to have either dismissed the news as unimportant, focused entirely on Friday's upcoming data, or found the reports themselves underwhelming.

Key takeaways from earlier in the week include:

• ISM reports from the US were mixed, showing growth in manufacturing but a decline in services.
• The ADP employment report met expectations.
• The JOLTS job openings report exceeded forecasts.
• Jerome Powell signaled a cautious Federal Reserve approach, emphasizing a pause over further easing.
• Christine Lagarde emphasized Europe's economic fragility, suggesting the need for continued monetary easing.

Despite these developments, bulls have had opportunities to regain momentum this week. If today's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate data are strong, the market may conclude that buying the US dollar is the only rational option.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has returned to the 100.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0603. A second rebound from this level could strengthen the US dollar and result in a decline toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.0436. A bearish divergence has already formed on the CCI indicator. Consolidation above 1.0603 could signal further euro growth toward the next retracement level at 76.4% (1.0747).

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The latest COT data shows:

• Speculators closed 5,698 long positions and opened 29,422 short positions.
• Sentiment among the Non-commercial group remains bearish, which supports further declines in the pair.
• Long positions held by speculators now total 154,000, compared to 197,000 short positions.

For 10 consecutive weeks, institutional traders have reduced their euro positions. This suggests the establishment of a new bearish trend. With expectations of Federal Reserve easing already priced in, there's no immediate reason for widespread dollar selling. While new factors could emerge, the US dollar's growth currently seems more likely.

Key Economic Calendar Events

• Eurozone – GDP growth rate (Q3) at 10:00 UTC.
• US – Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• US – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• US – Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

December 6 features at least two critical events that could significantly influence market sentiment, especially in the second half of the day.

Forecast and Trading Advice for EUR/USD

Sell recommendations:New short positions can be considered if the pair rebounds from 1.0603 on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.0420 and 1.0320.

Buy recommendations:Buying could be considered if the pair closes above 1.0532 on the hourly chart, but this signal appears weak, and bullish positions remain uncertain.

Fibonacci Levels

• Hourly chart: Based on 1.1003 – 1.1214.
• 4-hour chart: Based on 1.0603 – 1.1214.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: December 6 – Bears Are Prepared and Awaiting Signals from the US

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday, closing above the resistance zone of 1.2709–1.2734. This suggests that the upward trend may extend toward the next resistance zone at 1.2788–1.2801. However, a reversal and consolidation below 1.2709–1.2734 could strengthen the US dollar, resulting in a decline toward the support zone at 1.2611–1.2620.

The wave pattern is clear. The most recent completed upward wave exceeded the previous high by only 30 points, while the most recent downward wave failed to surpass the prior low. This indicates a potential end to the bearish trend. While bullish traders may attempt to dominate, any upward trend may remain weak, despite this week's confident buying activity.

Notably, Thursday saw little impactful news from the US and UK, yet bulls managed to make steady advances. This raises concerns due to the lack of strong justification for the pound's rally this week. Today's US reports could provide clarity on the market situation. If the pound's rise is purely corrective and US data comes in strong, a new bearish trend may begin today. Conversely, weak US data could reinforce the bullish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is more apparent: the pound remains in a downtrend. While the hourly chart's prolonged correction may give the impression of a bullish trend, the 4-hour chart confirms the continuation of the decline, with any upward movement appearing relatively weak. Therefore, I maintain a bearish outlook.

The pair has returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2728 and consolidated above it. This suggests a potential continuation of the upward movement toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.2861. However, the release of strong US reports today could still trigger a decline for the pound, despite the technical signals. Currently, no forming divergences are observed across any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The latest COT report indicates that:

• Non-commercial traders' sentiment has become less bullish.
• Long positions decreased by 18,279 positions, while short positions dropped by 2,544 positions.
• Bulls maintain a notable lead with 102,000 long positions versus 61,000 short positions.

Over the past three months:

• Long positions have slightly decreased, from 102,000 to 101,000.
• Short positions have increased, from 55,000 to 62,000.

This indicates that professional traders are gradually reducing long positions or increasing short positions, as the momentum for buying the pound appears to be exhausted. Technical analysis also signals a potential decline for the pound.

News Calendar for the US and UK

• US – Nonfarm Payrolls (13:30 UTC).
• US – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC).
• US – Average Hourly Earnings (13:30 UTC).
• US – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC).

Friday's economic calendar includes four significant reports, each of which has the potential to strongly influence market sentiment, especially in the second half of the day.

Forecast for GBP/USD and Trading Advice

Sell recommendations:Selling opportunities were available when the pair rebounded from 1.2709–1.2734, targeting 1.2611–1.2620. This target has been successfully reached. New selling opportunities may arise if the pair closes below the 1.2709–1.2734 zone.

Buy recommendations:Caution is advised for buying at this time. However, the pound may see growth if US reports disappoint.

Fibonacci Levels:

• Hourly chart: Based on the range of 1.3000–1.3432.
• 4-hour chart: Based on the range of 1.2299–1.3432.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Video analysis for December 06, 2024

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Potential for the further rally on USD/JPY

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 6/12/2024: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USDX, SP500 and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Video Agenda:

00:00 INTRO00:15 Totay's key events: Average Hourly Earnings, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate 02:34 EUR/USD03:38 USD/JPY05:33 USDX09:25 SP 50010:59 BTC/USD

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin Proves Its Worth

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With the retreat of "Trump trading" and Federal Reserve officials affirming that monetary policy remains restrictive, why is Bitcoin rising? The 45% rally in BTC/USD since Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election provides a clear answer: a president promising to create an ideal environment for crypto assets is the best incentive to buy the token.

"We told you so!" This was the reaction of Bitcoin enthusiasts as the cryptocurrency surged past the psychologically significant $100,000 mark, driven by the latest appointments in the team of the newly elected U.S. president. Crypto-friendly individuals, such as the new head of the SEC and the "White House Czar for AI and Crypto Industry," have given BTC/USD bulls a reason to overlook negatives like the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange moving $2.4 billion worth of Bitcoin to an anonymous wallet. Just in October, fears of increased token supply had pushed prices downward.

However, it's not just supply that drives prices—it's also demand. MicroStrategy's acquisition of 402,000 Bitcoin, totaling $41 billion, and capital inflows into specialized ETFs totaling $32 billion this year (including $8 billion since Trump's election victory) strengthen the case for BTC/USD bulls.

S&P 500 and Bitcoin Performance Trends

The almost-official 47th U.S. president congratulated Bitcoin supporters on reaching this historic milestone. However, the rise of crypto isn't solely attributable to the Republican leader. Bitcoin also reacts to improved global risk appetite, as evidenced by the S&P 500's 28% rally. Lowering the federal funds rate by 75 basis points since the start of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing cycle, along with expectations of further cuts in 2024 and three or four more in 2025, has bolstered BTC/USD prices.

That said, no trend is without corrections. Historical bull markets have seen 20-40% pullbacks, and the futures market indicates strong demand for derivatives hedging Bitcoin risks near $95,000 and in the $70,000-$75,000 range. BTC/USD might be in for a rollercoaster ride!

Such wild fluctuations have drawn significant public attention. In November, crypto trading volumes on centralized exchanges and derivatives platforms exceeded $10 trillion for the first time. Centralized exchange volumes jumped by 127% to $3.43 trillion, the second-highest since May 2021.

On the daily chart, BTC/USD is forming an "Adam and Eve" pattern. Following a wide-range bar, consolidation within its boundaries is likely before the market determines its next direction. A breakout and sustained move above the pivot level at $99,650 could justify further buying, while a drop below the fair value of $95,900 may signal selling opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 6 – Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.37 level in the afternoon occurred as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for buying the dollar. This led to a 30-pip rise, although the pair failed to reach the target level.

Today's data on wage levels and the positive trend in household spending supported the yen. Positive wage levels significantly impact household financial stability. An increase in wages stimulates consumer demand, which, in turn, supports economic growth. In Japan, where the yen is traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, this favorable trend has facilitated the strengthening of the national currency. Improving household finances makes families less dependent on external economic factors, creating a stable foundation for further growth.

Simultaneously, along with rising incomes, household spending has increased. People invest more in goods and services, actively supporting the domestic market. This, combined with recent statements by Japanese policymakers, enables the yen to maintain a leading position against the US dollar.

I will primarily rely on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's trading approach.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 150.12 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth to 150.48 (a thicker green line). At 150.48, I plan to exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry-level. Given the downward trend, exercise caution with purchases.

Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario 2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is in the oversold area and the 149.83 level is tested twice consecutively. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 150.12 and 150.48 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the 149.83 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.46, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 pips from the level. Selling pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day.

Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario 2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 150.12 level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 149.83 and 149.46 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 6 – Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2730 level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 30 pips, reaching the target level of 1.2762. Selling on the rebound from this level brought an additional 20 pips of profit.

The British pound is demonstrating stable growth amid skepticism about the U.S. dollar, which is facing uncertainty in monetary policy. Traders are increasingly focusing on upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve, anticipating that a reduction in interest rates will contribute to further dollar weakening. This creates favorable conditions for GBP/USD buyers, who are actively increasing their market positions. Technical analysis also supports bullish sentiment. The GBP/USD pair has broken through several key resistance levels, opening additional opportunities for growth.

Today's release of the Halifax House Price Index in the UK is unlikely to serve as a definitive indicator of stability in the British housing market. Rising house prices may indicate increased demand, but they do not always reflect the broader economic picture. However, when considering buying opportunities in the event of positive data, keep in mind that important U.S. labor market data will be released later in the day. This could quickly overshadow the pound's upward prospects. For intraday trading, I will primarily focus on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1:

I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.2756 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 1.2793 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2793, I plan to exit purchases and open short positions in anticipation of a 30-35 pip downward movement from the level. Expecting the pound to rise today is contingent on positive data.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to move upward.

Scenario 2:

Plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2735 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and likely trigger an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2756 and 1.2793.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Plan to sell the pound today after breaking through the 1.2735 level (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2704 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open buy positions in anticipation of a 20-25 pip upward movement from the level. Selling the pound is best done from higher levels.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario 2:

Plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2756 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and likely trigger a market reversal downward. Declines can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.2735 and 1.2704.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 6 – Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0539 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0568. However, selling from that level on a rebound did not yield the expected profit.

In the first half of today, the euro may continue to strengthen against the dollar, but this will require positive data from the Eurozone.

The release of data on Germany's industrial production could significantly impact the pair, particularly since Germany's economy is one of the key drivers in the Eurozone. Supply chain disruptions and declining orders are expected to place significant pressure on overall industrial output. Traders will closely monitor these figures to gauge the overall condition of the manufacturing sector, which has been facing considerable challenges recently.

The trade balance data will also be a critical indicator for assessing Germany's foreign economic activity. An increase in export volumes could signal a recovery in demand for German goods, positively impacting gross domestic product. Analyzing this data will provide insight into how Germany's trading partners react to global economic changes and shifts in consumer habits.

The most important event remains the release of Eurozone GDP data for the third quarter. Projections indicate no changes, with growth expected to stay at 0.4%. Only in the case of a significant downward revision would the euro respond with a substantial decline. I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2 for today's strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1:

Today, consider buying the euro at the price level of 1.0582 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0613. At 1.0613, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro is likely in the first half of the day, but only if positive data is released.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario 2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.0565 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0582 and 1.0613 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1:

I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0565 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0541, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pips movement in the opposite direction from the level. Pressure on the pair may return anytime, but selling from higher levels is better.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario 2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.0582 level twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0565 and 1.0541 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Uniswap Cryptocurrency, Friday December 06, 2024.

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From what is seen on the 4-hour chart of the Uniswap cryptocurrency, there is a Golden Cross from the EMA 50 which is above the EMA 200 which indicates a Bullish condition in this cryptocurrency coupled with confirmation from the appearance of hidden deviations between the price movement of the Uniswap cryptocurrency and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator confirming that in the near future Uniswap has the potential to test the level of 16,507 if this level is successfully broken upwards then 18.226 will be the next target even if the momentum and volatility support then 19.288 will be Uniswap's next goal but all these strengthening scenarios will be invalid and canceled if on the way to strengthening Uniswap suddenly experiences a significant weakening correction especially if it breaks through and closes below the level of 14.320.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Solana Cryptocurrency, Friday December 06, 2024.

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If we look at the 4-hour chart of the Solana cryptocurrency, it seems that the dominance of Buyers is very dominant, which can be seen from the Failing Wedge Pattern which was successfully broken upwards and the formation of the Bullish 123 pattern followed by two Ross Hooks (RH) plus the movement of Solana's price which is above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which is followed by the appearance of hidden deviations between the movement of Solana's price and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator where the movement of Solana's price is also moving harmoniously in the Bullish Pitchfork channel, all of this provides clues and confirmation that in the near future it has the potential to continue strengthening even if there is a potential for a weakening correction, but as long as it does not break and close below the 212.10 level, Solana will continue to strengthen to the 260.83 level as its main target and if momentum and volatility also support it, 274.26 will be the next target to be aimed of.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 6? Fundamental Event Analysis for Beginners

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Macroeconomic Reports Overview

Friday's calendar is packed with significant macroeconomic data, primarily from the United States. The U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports are expected to attract market attention. These are critical enough to drive 100+ pip movements in EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Reports on average hourly earnings and consumer sentiment are also notable, but they will take a backseat to the labor market data. Meanwhile, the Eurozone GDP final estimate for Q3 could provoke a reaction only if there's a significant deviation from forecasts.

Fundamental Events Overview

Key fundamental events for Friday include speeches by Federal Reserve representatives Michelle Bowman, Mary Daly, and Austan Goolsbee, scheduled for late evening. These officials will likely comment on the latest labor market and unemployment data. There's no certainty that the Fed will reduce the key rate by 0.25% in December. If today's labor market data is robust and next week's inflation figures indicate acceleration, the likelihood of monetary policy easing in December will diminish. Such a scenario could strongly support the U.S. dollar.

General Conclusions

For the week's final trading day, the euro is expected to remain within its sideways range, while the pound could continue its mild upward correction. Given the heavy slate of macroeconomic and fundamental events, markets should be prepared for volatility during the U.S. trading session, with the direction of movements hinged entirely on the nature of the U.S. data.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time it takes for a signal to form (bounce or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals are generated near a level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may produce numerous false signals or none at all. In such cases, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of consolidation.
4. Trades should be opened during the European session through the middle of the American session. All trades should be manually closed thereafter.
5. On the hourly timeframe, trades based on MACD signals should only be executed during periods of strong volatility and trends confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. If two levels are very close (5–20 pips apart), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
7. After a 15–20 pip movement in the correct direction, set a Stop Loss at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Support and Resistance Levels: Targets for opening buy or sell orders. These are ideal points for setting Take Profit levels.

Red Lines: Trendlines or channels reflecting the current trend direction and indicating the preferred trading direction.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line serving as auxiliary indicators and sources of signals.

Key News Events and Reports: Always listed in the economic calendar, these can significantly impact currency pair movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during such events to avoid sharp price reversals.

Every trade cannot be profitable. The key to long-term success in Forex trading lies in developing a clear strategy and effective money management.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on December 6? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Thursday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday as part of a correction that began two weeks ago. As we've mentioned several times, there are no substantial reasons for the British pound to rise other than technical factors. On Thursday (or Wednesday), there were no strong reasons to buy the pound. Neither the UK nor the US had noteworthy events, so this remains purely a technical correction.

Theoretically, this corrective movement could last several weeks, as corrections typically take longer than impulsive moves. However, the pair may see significant volatility during the US trading session due to critical macroeconomic data. Even a 100-pip drop wouldn't conclusively signal the end of the correction. At the same time, we still believe that long positions are irrelevant. The pound has the potential to decline by at least 500–600 pips.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On Thursday's 5-minute timeframe, there were no noteworthy trading signals. The price trended upward throughout the day, moving from the 1.2680–1.2685 zone toward 1.2754. A buy signal near the 1.2680–1.2685 area was formed on Wednesday. However, no clear sell signal emerged upon reaching 1.2754. Therefore, we believe trading the pound on Thursday was not particularly meaningful.

Trading Strategy for Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to correct after a two-month decline. We fully support the pound's further decline in the medium term, considering it the only logical outcome. The pound is correcting purely based on technical patterns, which could continue for some time.

On Friday, novice traders can expect a potential decline in the British pound. However, movements are currently highly erratic, and any rise should be considered part of the correction. The macroeconomic background today could drive movements in either direction.

On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at 1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2754, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993. On Friday, there are no scheduled events in the UK, while the US will release at least four significant reports, including NonFarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wages, and Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan).

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on December 6? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Thursday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading within a horizontal channel on Thursday, a pattern that has become visible. As anticipated, the price has remained between 1.0451 and 1.0596 for two weeks, with the correction proving weak and slow. Despite this week's robust macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, the pair has not managed to break out of its range.

Plenty of news and reports have been released this week, and while market volatility hasn't been exceptionally low—markets have responded to events—the pair remains in a pure flat trend. This type of movement is always a challenge for traders. Currently, the price is near the upper boundary of the range, making it reasonable to expect a bounce and a new downward move. However, today's key reports on U.S. labor and unemployment markets could spark significant market reactions, and it's unclear whether this will favor the U.S. dollar.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute time frame Thursday, only one trading signal was generated. Throughout the European session, the price traded near the 1.0526 level before eventually moving upward, almost reaching the target level at 1.0596, which acts as the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. This would have been an excellent point to close long positions and even consider opening short ones. As we approach the U.S. session today, if the price is within 20–30 pips of the 1.0596 level, a trade can be shifted to break even to reduce risk and await the release of U.S. reports.

Trading Strategy for Friday:

The pair is still in a corrective phase on the hourly timeframe, but EUR/USD is likely to see only limited or slow upward movements. For two weeks, the price has remained within the 1.0451–1.0596 range, reflecting traders' hesitation to buy the euro even after a two-month decline.

On Friday, we believe the pair's downward movement could resume, mainly if the price bounces off the upper boundary of the horizontal channel. However, flat trends are inherently random, an important factor to consider.

On the 5-minute TF, we should consider the levels of 1.0269-1.0277, 1.0334-1.0359, 1.0433-1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896. In the Eurozone, only the final Q3 GDP report is scheduled for release, and it is unlikely to influence the market unless the data significantly deviates from expectations. In the U.S., critical reports will be published, including Wages, Labor market data, Unemployment rate, and Consumer sentiment.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Synopsys Predicts Decline, Bitcoin Surges Above $100K, Markets Confused

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US Markets End Day in the Red: Tech, UnitedHealth Under Attack

US stock indexes closed lower on Thursday, with the biggest losses reported by healthcare and technology companies, as investors remained cautious ahead of Friday's payrolls report.

Records are behind us

The S&P 500 tech index (.SPLRCT) lost 0.2%, retreating from its record high reached the day before. Recall that on Wednesday, all three key US indices updated their historical closing highs. However, the euphoria was short-lived: the decline in the tech sector was one of the reasons for the market rollback.

Synopsys is losing confidence

Shares of Synopsys (SNPS.O), a company specializing in the development of software for designing microcircuits, fell by 12.4%. The reason was the revision of forecasts for the 2025 financial year: revenue, according to the company's expectations, will be lower than the consensus forecast of analysts. One of the main factors behind this decline was the decline in sales in China, where the market remains difficult.

UnitedHealth under pressure

The largest decline was shown by shares of UnitedHealth (UNH.N), which lost 5.2%. This decline had a noticeable impact on the Dow and S&P 500 indices, for which UnitedHealth shares are one of the key ones. At the same time, the S&P 500 Healthcare Index (.SPXHC) fell by 1.1%.

Other representatives of the sector also suffered significant losses: Cigna (CI.N) shares fell by 2.3%, and Molina Healthcare (MOH.N) by 3.2%.

Risks amid tragedy

The collapse in the healthcare sector is associated with new risks that are being reassessed by market participants after the tragic death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Recall that Thompson, who headed one of the divisions of UnitedHealth Group, was killed in Manhattan. The event caused shock among the management of insurance companies, which also affected investor sentiment.

Investors await a key report

Friday's US employment report became the main expectation of the week. Experts believe that data on the state of the labor market can set the direction for further movement of stock indices. Market tensions are rising, and investors are trying to play it safe and avoid excessive risk.

Thus, Thursday was a day of losses for US markets, where worrying corporate news and macroeconomic expectations overshadowed recent optimism.

Friday's jobs report: investors' expectations and concerns

Economic forecasts point to a rise in jobs in November, which could be a key factor in the future performance of US markets. According to a Reuters poll, nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200,000. This is higher than the modest gain of 12,000 in October, which was the smallest figure since December 2020.

Labour market under the microscope

Earlier on Thursday, data showed a slight increase in new jobless claims in the US. The figures added uncertainty to the overall economic outlook, forcing market participants to pay close attention to the state of the labour market. The employment figures are expected to be an important indicator for the Federal Reserve's future actions.

Investor sentiment: Cautiously awaiting

Daniel Morgan, portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, said market participants are focused on economic data and the Fed's possible response. "It's clear that Wall Street is going to trade based on what the Fed is going to do," he said. Investors are trying to take into account all aspects of the macroeconomic environment to predict the future dynamics of rates and their impact on stock indices.

Fed: Inflation control continues

The Federal Reserve remains focused on fighting inflation, and the employment report will be an important milestone for the regulator. If the data shows significant employment growth, it could push the Fed to tighten monetary policy further. Conversely, weak data could give markets a break and reduce the likelihood of a sharp rate hike.

Thus, Friday's report became an expected event for investors ready to adjust their strategies depending on the data on the labor market. The balance between economic growth and the actions of the regulator remains the main intrigue of the week.

US indices are falling: the main factors of pressure on the market

The main US stock indices ended trading on Thursday in the red, continuing to reflect the tension in the market and cautious expectations of investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell by 248.33 points (-0.55%), closing at 44,765.71. The S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 11.38 points (-0.19%), falling to 6,075.11. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) ended the day with a drop of 34.86 points (-0.18%), recording a level of 19,700.26.

Powell's words: a signal for caution

Markets took special note of the statement made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday. He noted that the U.S. economy is showing more resilience than expected when the central bank began cutting interest rates in September. His comments about the possibility of a slower pace of rate cuts have forced investors to reassess their expectations.

Market participants now estimate the probability of a quarter-point rate cut this month at about 70%. The uncertainty is weighing on key indexes, especially rate-sensitive stocks.

Cryptocurrency Market: Volatility Continues

After a sharp rise earlier in the day, cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks came under pressure. This happened against the backdrop of Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time in history, but was unable to maintain that gain.

The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy (MSTR.O), ended the trading session down 4.8%. The decline reflects the volatility of the cryptocurrency sector, which remains sensitive to market fluctuations.

Stock Markets: Bears Dominate

On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), declining stocks outnumbered rising stocks by 1.25 to 1, with 378 new highs and 74 new lows recorded.

On the Nasdaq, the situation was even more pessimistic: 2,833 stocks ended the day down, while 1,488 showed growth. The ratio of falling to rising stocks was 1.9 to 1, which underscores the overall negative sentiment among market participants.

Looking Ahead: What Are Investors Expecting?

Amid the Fed's statements and cryptocurrency market volatility, market participants continue to monitor economic indicators. Anticipation of Friday's employment report adds tension, and rate dynamics remain a key driver of market movement.

Thus, the current investor sentiment is one of caution and careful waiting, while stock indices react to macroeconomic and corporate news.

Decrease in activity: trading volume on US exchanges decreased

On Thursday, the trading volume on US stock markets amounted to 14.12 billion shares, which was below the average value over the last 20 trading days, which was 14.7 billion. Such a decrease in activity indicates that investors are taking a wait-and-see attitude, analyzing current macroeconomic factors and assessing possible risks.

Why are volumes decreasing?

Experts say the main reason for the decrease in trading activity is the tense anticipation of key economic data, in particular, the employment report, which is due to be published on Friday. This data can have a significant impact on the market, since it is directly related to the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates.

Investors choose caution

Analysts note that a decrease in trading volumes often indicates the desire of market participants to minimize risks in the face of uncertainty. In the absence of strong news drivers, traders and institutional investors prefer to hold positions and wait for clearer signals.

Upcoming events: a decisive moment for markets

Ahead of the release of important macroeconomic data, market participants are preparing for possible changes. The situation on stock markets now resembles the calm before the storm: investors are focused on the possible consequences of the employment report, which can set the tone for further market movement.

Thus, the current trading activity, although below the usual level, reflects a mood of caution and prudence, which emphasizes the significance of the upcoming events for the global financial community.

Bitcoin conquers heights: the cryptocurrency breaks the $ 100,000 mark

Thursday was a historic day for Bitcoin, which for the first time broke the symbolic barrier of $ 100,000. At the peak of its growth, the largest cryptocurrency was trading around $ 99,400, an increase of 1.5% in a day. This impressive growth reflected the optimistic expectations of market participants related to possible changes in the regulation of the crypto industry in the United States.

Regulatory Factor: What Spurred the Growth?

A key driver of Bitcoin's latest surge was former President Donald Trump's announcement that he would appoint Paul Atkins to head the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Atkins, known for his liberal views on regulation and support for cryptocurrencies, has become a symbol of hopes for deregulation of the crypto market.

"At the end of the day, it's just a number," said Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered. However, according to him, the current price level demonstrates the depth of the industry's transformation. "The institutionalization of the industry, especially through the launch of crypto ETFs, has played a key role in achieving these heights," he added.

Institutional Players in the Market

The approval of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has been a significant event this year, attracting large capital into the crypto market. This has helped to bolster the confidence of investors who were previously wary of digital assets. Bitcoin is no longer perceived as a purely speculative instrument; it has become part of a larger financial ecosystem.

Global Markets: Stability Before the Storm

While Bitcoin was setting records, global stock markets remained close to all-time highs, despite a minor correction. Investor confidence was fueled by expectations of lower interest rates in the US, which creates a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Looking Ahead: What's Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin's historic achievement opens a new chapter in its development. Regulatory issues, institutional investment, and the emergence of new financial products will continue to shape its price. The optimism prevailing in the market suggests that Bitcoin is not just a digital asset, but a game-changer in the global economy.

Thus, Bitcoin's current success underlines the maturity of the industry and strengthens its position as an important element of global financial systems.

Political crisis in France: Barnier's resignation fails to shake markets

France faced a rare political event: Michel Barnier's government lost a vote of confidence on Wednesday for the first time since 1962. Far-right and left-wing parties joined forces to topple the cabinet, which culminated in Barnier's official resignation. However, investors who had foreseen such a development took the news calmly. The euro, French stocks and government bonds were virtually unchanged on Thursday.

Markets remain calm

Barnier's resignation did not cause volatility in financial markets, thanks to their stable preparation for the political shift. Experts emphasize that investors' attention is focused on other factors - primarily on US monetary policy and the outlook for the global economy.

US: Expectations of rate cuts and cautious optimism

Amid the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, consumer and investor sentiment in the US continues to improve. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, said the optimism is driven by political and economic factors, including hopes for tax relief, deregulation, and rising corporate profits.

"However, this rally in equities is clouded by overly lofty valuations, overly optimistic expectations, and the possibility of an economic slowdown in 2025," Buchbinder said in a research note.

Rate Cut Probability Rising

Financial markets have all but priced in an additional rate cut in 2025. The implied probability of such a move has risen from 0% to 70% in just a week and a half in December. Fed Chairman Christopher Waller has also indicated that he supports the idea of rate cuts, which is bolstering investors' faith in the predictability of the central bank's policy.

Economic Data: Cooling in the Services Sector

U.S. services sector activity slowed in November after months of strong growth, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). These results join a number of other economic signals pointing to possible stagnation in certain sectors of the economy.

Bond Market Reaction

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was little changed despite the release of slightly higher jobless claims data. Investors continue to analyze mixed signals from the economy to predict the future market dynamics.

Looking Ahead: Investors Brace for Change

Political changes in France and economic data from the US create a difficult backdrop for decision-making. Financial markets have demonstrated surprising stability, but participants will be focused on key macroeconomic indicators and policy decisions in the coming months.

Investors are now waiting for the Fed's policy, economic data and international events to determine the trajectory of global markets.

US Labor Market Signals Cooling: Key Data and Impact

Fresh US labor market data released on Thursday showed a modest increase in jobless claims over the past week, confirming that the US labor market continues to lose momentum. These figures are becoming an important indicator ahead of the monthly employment report, which is expected to set the tone for further decisions by the Federal Reserve.

Dollar Weakening: Reaction to Economic Data

The US dollar fell against major world currencies, losing about 0.4%. Against this background, the euro strengthened, rising 0.7% to $1,058. Such dynamics indicate that market participants are pricing in a slowdown in the US economy, reducing the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe-haven asset.

European Markets: Growth Amid Political Changes in France

Political instability in France, caused by the resignation of the Barnier government, did not put serious pressure on the markets. In contrast, the risk premium for French debt compared to German bonds fell, signaling that investors see prospects for stabilization.

European stocks at one-month highs

European stock indexes ended the day higher. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.4%, posting a sixth straight session of gains, helped by gains in the banking sector. France's CAC 40 also rose 0.3%, bouncing off a three-week high. Investors are hoping that the formation of a new budget in France after the political crisis will provide a positive boost to the economy.

Experts on the outlook

"The markets have already priced in most of the negative factors, and it was obvious to everyone that the government would collapse," said Francois Savary, chief investment officer at Genvil Wealth Management. According to him, the current stabilization on stock markets reflects investors' expectations that the political crisis will not escalate into economic turmoil.

Looking Ahead: Awaiting Reports and Decisions

Markets are bracing for Friday's U.S. employment report, which will be a key factor in the Fed's next steps. In Europe, the key question remains whether France can quickly restore political stability and pass a budget that will boost investor confidence.

So, global markets are showing cautious optimism as they navigate political and economic headwinds, with market participants adapting to the new reality.

South Korea: Markets Remain Stable Amid Political Tension

South Korean financial markets have shown surprising resilience despite the political crisis that erupted after President Yoon Seok-yeol's failed attempt to declare martial law on Tuesday evening. While markets initially reacted with a surge in volatility, the situation quickly stabilized, reflecting investors' appetite for political risk.

Market Resilience

South Korean stocks and the currency showed little change on Thursday, reflecting the market's ability to disengage from domestic instability. Experts note that global economic factors are currently having a greater impact on market sentiment than local political events.

Oil prices: a balance of expectations and OPEC+ decisions

The global oil market was stable on Thursday. Investors were assessing the OPEC+ decision to postpone production increases for three months until April 2025, which supports assumptions about sufficient supply of raw materials in the near future.

OPEC+ extends pause

The decision of the OPEC+ alliance to postpone the increase in production quotas has generated interest in the dynamics of supply in the global oil market. Experts suggest that the postponed production plans will ensure a balance between supply and demand, preventing sharp price fluctuations.

Oil market prospects

Investors are also taking into account the impact of the global economic slowdown on energy demand. Despite a potential increase in supply next year, prices remain stable, which underlines confidence in the balance of the market.

Looking Ahead: Expectations and Possible Impacts

Political tensions in South Korea remain in the spotlight, but local financial markets are showing a willingness to cope with short-term shocks. Meanwhile, global oil markets are signaling stability despite the changing supply outlook.

Investors continue to watch OPEC+ moves and developments in South Korea to adjust their strategies amid current uncertainty.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2024

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Eurozone retail sales growth slowed significantly from 3.0% to 1.9%, much worse than even the most pessimistic forecasts. Yet, the euro still managed to gain ground. It is impossible to attribute it to the data on unemployment benefits applications because the total number of claims decreased by 14k against a forecast of 1k, making the data slightly better than expected.

The primary reason for this market behavior lies in today's anticipated U.S. Department of Labor report. Recent labor market data prompted investors to revise their forecasts, expecting the unemployment rate to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. This expectation has fueled the euro's rally. However, the euro could weaken significantly if unemployment remains unchanged and over 200k new jobs are created in nonfarm sectors.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for EUR/USD on December 6, 2024

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On Thursday, the euro gained 77 pips, driven by U.S. data from Challenger showing a rise in job cuts from 55,597 in October to 57,727 in November. Adding to the pessimism, initial jobless claims released an hour later rose to 224k from 215k the previous week. What does this fundamental-technical pattern suggest? Major players may be preparing to buy the euro, even in response to neutral U.S. labor data released today.

Today's forecasts offer room for interpretation. November nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to show an increase of 202k, but unemployment is also projected to rise from 4.1% to 4.2%. Even minor deviations could be framed as "weak."

The technical outlook suggests the price aims to break above the 1.0598 resistance level, supported by the leading Marlin oscillator, which holds firmly in bullish territory.

The first target for growth is the resistance at 1.0667, where the price will face the balance line. Success here could allow the euro to continue its ascent into the 1.0762/77 target range, a support zone from October 23–29. (Target levels have been slightly adjusted since the last review).

A bearish scenario would materialize only if the price falls below 1.0461, negating the bullish plan. The price consolidates between the balance line and the 1.0598 target level. The Marlin oscillator is extending its growth in positive territory. The next move will largely depend on today's U.S. labor market data.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for GBP/USD on December 6, 2024

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On Thursday, the pound rose by 55 pips and consolidated above the 1.2708 resistance level, which now acts as support. The price is heading toward the target range of 1.2816/47, aligning closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci level from the entire move between September 26 and November 22.

The Marlin oscillator is rising sharply in positive territory, supporting the price's upward momentum.A sign of divergence between the price and the oscillator has emerged, but it is weak. Graphically, Marlin remains within an ascending channel (dashed lines). Such contradictions often lead to oscillator and price consolidation.

The 1.2708 level serves as support. Consolidation below this level could trigger a move toward the 1.2616 support, further reinforced by the MACD Line (blue moving average).

The primary trend remains bullish, but the final direction will depend on the release of U.S. employment data at 13:30 London time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.