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Forex forecast 16/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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GBP/USD Forecast on December 16, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday made another pullback to the support level at 1.3352–1.3362. Today, a consolidation of prices below this zone would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next corrective level at 61.8% – 1.3294. A new rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level would favor the pound and a resumption of the bullish trend toward the 1.3425 level.

The wave structure turned bullish several weeks ago. The most recently completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend currently remains bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have already fully priced it in, while the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for bulls to continue their attacks, but their positions are currently stronger than those of the bears. The end of the bullish trend can only be confirmed below the 1.3294 level.

There was no significant news background on Monday, but today three UK reports have already been released and deserve a closer look. I will say right away that the market reaction to the economic data was a restrained rise. This suggests that the UK reports should have been positive. However, this is a rather debatable statement. The unemployment rate rose from 5.0% to 5.1%, which generally matched market expectations. The number of new unemployed increased by 20 thousand, also broadly in line with forecasts. Wages rose by 4.7% including bonuses, which significantly exceeded traders' expectations. In my view, it was this last report that caused the modest rise in the pound. If wages are rising—and faster than expected—then inflation may also accelerate. Let me remind you that the Bank of England is counting on a slowdown in inflation, which would allow it to continue easing monetary policy. Therefore, the fate of the MPC interest rate decision on Thursday has not yet been sealed. Moreover, a UK inflation report will be released before Thursday, which could change market expectations regarding the rate.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose to the 100.0% Fibonacci correction level at 1.3435. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar and the start of a decline toward 1.3140. A consolidation above 1.3435 would open the door to further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category did not change over the last reporting week, but that reporting week was a month ago—dated November 18. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 766, while the number of short positions decreased by 981. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 53 thousand versus 132 thousand. As we can see, bears dominated a month ago, but the situation may now be completely different. In the euro, the situation was the opposite even a month ago. Therefore, I do not believe the market for the pound is currently bearish.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency occasionally enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy in order to halt the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure of this, as labor market statistics are still lacking.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK

United Kingdom

• Change in Unemployment Rate (07:00 UTC)
• Change in Average Hourly Earnings (07:00 UTC)
• Change in Claimant Count (07:00 UTC)
• Manufacturing PMI (09:30 UTC)
• Services PMI (09:30 UTC)

United States

• ADP Employment Change (13:15 UTC)
• Nonfarm Payrolls Change (13:30 UTC)
• Retail Sales Change (13:30 UTC)
• Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC)
• Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC)
• Services PMI (14:45 UTC)

On December 16, the economic calendar contains eleven events, three of which have already been released. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Tuesday will be strong throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

Short positions can be opened after a close below the 1.3352–1.3362 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3294. Long positions may be considered today on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Tech sell-off fuels market rotation

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After the sharp rally of the S&P 500 index from its April lows, investors' desire to lock in profits is so strong that it is driving the broad market index lower. Moreover, there are tangible catalysts for this move. Key US labor market data will shed light on the Fed's stance regarding potential rate cuts, while disappointing earnings from tech companies are adding fuel to portfolio rotation.

Over the past three trading sessions, Broadcom shares have declined by 18%, translating to a $300 billion market capitalization loss, roughly equivalent to that of its competitor AMD. This marks Broadcom's worst period since 2020, pushing its market value below that of Meta Platforms, resulting in a swap of their rankings from 6th to 7th place.

Investors are spooked by parallels to the 1990s dot-com crisis, questioning tech companies' ability to generate profits commensurate with their massive investments and worrying about inflated fundamental valuations. Consequently, there is a rotation in favor of small-cap stocks, which explains why the Russell 2000 is outperforming the broader market index.

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Dynamics

Smaller issuers are capitalizing on the combination of a surprisingly strong economy and the Fed that continues to signal interest rate cuts. US GDP is growing despite tariff headwinds. White House protectionist measures are being offset by gains in productivity from artificial intelligence technologies and a surge in consumer spending, enriched by the S&P 500 rally. Will this momentum persist into 2026?

Doubts about the effectiveness of investing in tech companies, coupled with a gradual slowing of the Fed's monetary expansion cycle, could negatively impact the US economy, especially as the labor market continues to cool. According to Jerome Powell, actual monthly employment is running 60,000 below previously reported BLS figures.

MSCI and Bond Yields Dynamics

Morgan Stanley, however, believes the equity market has entered a "bad or good news is good for the S&P 500" regime. In this context, even a slight miss in US nonfarm payrolls versus Bloomberg consensus estimates could lift the broad index on expectations of a renewed Fed easing cycle. This scenario would likely push bond yields lower while supporting equity prices.

Derivatives currently imply a 53% probability of a Fed funds rate cut in March. If this probability continues to rise, the US dollar could weaken, and the S&P 500 may have an opportunity to resume its upward trend and hit new record highs.

From a technical point of view, the daily charts shows that bears have managed to push the S&P 500 below its fair value. Nevertheless, a rebound from the 6,750–6,770 convergence zone could offer traders a favorable setup for long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 16: S&P 500 and NASDAQ extend weakness

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Yesterday, stock indices closed lower once again. The S&P 500 fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid by 0.09%.

The US stock market declined as investors reduced risk ahead of the release of key economic data expected to prodive insights into potential future changes in interest rates. Asian indices dropped by 1.5%, as did futures on the S&P 500 index, with traders refraining from taking further action ahead of US jobs data for October and November, expected to indicate weakness in the labor market. The upcoming publication is anticipated to be a defining factor for market sentiment. Weaker-than-expected figures are likely to heighten expectations for further monetary policy easing.

Chinese stocks plummeted to key technical levels as slowing growth in the tech sector and renewed concerns about the country's economic growth fueled a sharp sell-off. European indices are also preparing for a weak opening.

Bitcoin crashed to around $85,000. Oil remains near its lowest level since 2021, and gold declined after five days of gains.

Maybank Securities noted that they were observing a clear trend toward reducing risk. They also mentioned concerns regarding asset valuations, adding that with important macroeconomic statistics, such as jobs data, some funds seemed to be reducing their beta or locking in profits.

The Asian currency markets were also in focus. The yen strengthened against the dollar, falling below 155 ahead of the widely anticipated decision by the Bank of Japan on Friday to raise the key interest rate to its highest level in three decades. The Indian rupee fell to record low levels, with an increasing number of officials advocating for a stronger yuan to help stabilize the Chinese economy.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds stabilized around 4.17% after a slight decline on Monday amid speculation that the Fed will cut rates twice next year to support the labor market, despite signs of persistent inflation.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,784. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,801. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,819, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,769. A break below that level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,756 and open the path to $6,743.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Will Be Independent

.Meanwhile, as the U.S. dollar comes under significant selling pressure, the current head of the U.S. National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett—who may also become the future Fed chair—said that if he is selected, he will take into account the political views of President Donald Trump, but central bank interest rate decisions will remain independent.

"The president has very strong and well-grounded views on what we should do," the official said in an interview. "But ultimately, the Fed's job is to be independent and to work with the group of people on the Board of Governors to reach a consensus on what interest rates should be," he said.

Hassett's remarks prompted mixed reactions among experts. Some believe that taking the president's views into account could undermine confidence in the Fed and lead to the politicization of monetary policy. Others, on the contrary, argue that interaction between the government and the central bank can be beneficial for the economy, especially during times of crisis. Nevertheless, preserving independence in interest rate decisions is a key factor in maintaining the stability of the financial system.

While the dollar is going through a difficult period, investors' attention is focused on the Fed's next steps. Any hints of a more dovish interest rate policy could have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. Let me remind you that Trump and his senior advisers have been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell throughout this year to cut interest rates, while simultaneously considering candidates to replace Powell, whose term as Fed chair expires in May next year.

Hassett is considered the leading contender for the position, although Trump also met last week with former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh. In a Friday interview, the president named these two men as his top candidates for the Fed chair position. "Soon we will have a good Fed chair who wants to cut interest rates," the U.S. president said.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on how to take the 1.1770 level. Only this would allow them to target a test of 1.1790. From there, a move up to 1.1820 is possible, but achieving this without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1855. In the event of a decline, I expect any serious activity from large buyers only around the 1.1735 level. If no one appears there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1700 low or to open long positions from 1.1685.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3395. Only this would allow them to target 1.3430, above which a breakout would be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.3474 level. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3355. If they succeed, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3320 low, with the prospect of a move toward 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Ahead of the ECB Meeting

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See also: InstaForex Trading Indicators for EUR/USD

Yesterday marked the beginning of a week packed with scheduled events. Among the most significant reports and upcoming events are the meetings of the central banks of the UK, the Eurozone, and Japan. Market participants will also focus on the release of important macroeconomic data from China, Canada, the UK, Germany, the Eurozone, and the US.

The American economy, meanwhile, shows signs of uncertainty, while the dollar is trading near the 98.00 mark on the USDX index, highlighting ongoing risks of weakening.

Today, delayed labor market data will be released (October/November): unemployment is expected to be around 4.4%, while projections for Non-Farm Payrolls remain unclear. The market expects a slowdown in job creation by the end of autumn. However, this fact has already been factored in by the Federal Reserve during its recent rate-cut decision. Nevertheless, these data could act as a catalyst for changes in the dollar's dynamics.

The first central bank to hold its final meeting of the year this week will be the Bank of England. On the same day, the European Central Bank meeting will take place, and the next day (Friday), the Bank of Japan will hold its meeting.

In this article, we will examine the current situation ahead of the ECB meeting and evaluate the prospects for its monetary policy and the euro.

The EUR/USD pair is showing steady gains, recovering from losses and rising to around 1.1750 at the start of today's European session. This rise is due to positive industrial production figures in the Eurozone, which have created favorable trading conditions and strengthened the euro against the US dollar.

Eurostat data showed an unexpected 0.8% increase in October, significantly surpassing market forecasts (+0.1%). The 2% year-on-year increase indicates stable industrial development in the region, which has been a key factor supporting the European currency.

The currency pair is consolidating its gains after a 2% rally over the past three weeks. Investors are supported by the prospect of the US Fed reducing interest rates. While market participants show some caution ahead of important data (US NFP employment reports, CPI), the expectation of replacing Chairman Jerome Powell with a more dovish candidate also weighs on the dollar.

President Donald Trump has made his position clear, emphasizing the need to appoint a new Fed chairman who will consider the president's views when determining the direction of monetary policy.

Ahead of the ECB meeting, preliminary December data on business activity in Germany, France, and the Eurozone will be released today, as well as the final assessment of the European CPI indices on Wednesday.

Economists do not rule out that the manufacturing PMI indices for France and Germany could exceed the forecasted values of 48.2 and 48.5, respectively, while the Eurozone PMI indices may reach 49.9, given that the Eurozone composite PMI previously reached 52.8, remaining in the zone of accelerating business activity (above 50).

It is worth noting that inflation in Germany slowed in November from 0.3% to -0.2%; however, annual growth remained at 2.3%. The harmonized index also showed a decline, dropping from 0.3% to -0.5% month-on-month while rising from 2.3% to 2.6% year-on-year, staying above the ECB's target (2.0%) and deferring potential easing of monetary policy until the end of the first quarter of next year.

On the other hand, the deteriorating growth prospects in Germany (according to the IFO Institute, the country's GDP will shrink to 0.1% in 2025, down from earlier expectations of 0.2%; to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.3%; and to 1.1% in 2027 from 1.6%, influenced by US sanctions on German exports) pose challenges for the ECB in improving business conditions and consequently lowering interest rates.

Conclusions for Traders

Increased volatility is expected around the US morning PMI and evening employment data. Overall, the prospects for EUR/USD remain positive due to the ECB's constructive policy and anticipated changes at the Fed.

Opportunities for further strengthening the euro remain, especially amid changing market expectations for future interest rate dynamics. The EUR/USD pair may remain in an upward position, but key data on inflation and employment will determine the direction and outlook of the ECB's and the Fed's monetary policy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Remains Under Pressure

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Yesterday, New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that monetary policy is in a good position for next year following last week's interest rate cut, which led to another weakening of the U.S. dollar.

"Monetary policy is largely focused on balancing risks. To that end, the FOMC has shifted a moderately restrictive monetary policy toward a neutral stance," Williams said on Monday in prepared remarks for an event in Jersey City. "As a result of these actions, monetary policy is in a good position as we approach 2026."

Investors interpreted Williams's comments as a signal that the Fed does not intend to change its interest rate course in the near future, making the dollar less attractive compared with other currencies.

Many market participants disagree about the dollar's future trajectory. Some believe that solid U.S. economic growth will support the dollar in the long term. Others, however, think that Fed rate cuts and a growing budget deficit will put further pressure on the U.S. currency.

Disagreements among Fed policymakers are now also far more evident than before. Last week, Fed officials cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The third consecutive rate cut this year brought the Fed's benchmark rate to a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The decision prompted three dissenting votes from policymakers, including two regional Fed presidents who preferred to keep rates unchanged, and one from Fed Governor Steven Miran, who argued for a larger half-percentage-point cut.

In his remarks, Williams also said that U.S. economic growth next year is expected to accelerate to about 2.25%, up from a projected 1.5% in 2025, supported by fiscal policy, favorable financial conditions, and investment in artificial intelligence. He also noted that inflation is expected to decline to just below 2.5% next year before reaching the Fed's 2% target in 2027.

Answering questions, the head of the New York Fed noted that monetary policy is currently being adjusted in light of two key risks to achieving the central bank's core objectives: inflation that is too high or a labor market that is too weak. "This year, based on data and forecasts, we have adjusted interest rates downward in a way that we believe gives us a good chance of keeping these two competing types of risks roughly balanced," Williams said. "We cannot know exactly what will happen with trade policy, inflation, or the economy next year, but I think we are well prepared for it."

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to take the 1.1770 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1790. From there, a move up to 1.1820 is possible, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1855. In the event of a decline, I expect any serious activity from large buyers only around the 1.1735 level. If no one shows up there, it would be better to wait for an update of the 1.1700 low or to open long positions from 1.1685.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3395. Only this will allow them to target 1.3430, above which a breakout would be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.3474 level. If the pair falls, bears will try to take control of 1.3355. If they succeed, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3320 low, with the prospect of a move toward 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin in trouble again

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Bitcoin has plummeted to around $85,000, while Ethereum has dropped below $2,900, indicating the dominance of a bearish trend that has been going on since November of this year.

A number of other altcoins, including SOL, XRP, and Dogecoin, have also declined. Meanwhile, it was announced yesterday that CME Group, the leading global platform for trading derivative financial instruments, has launched futures for XRP and SOL with quotes tied to the spot market.

The statement mentioned that XRP and SOL futures with spot pricing will complement the existing Bitcoin and Ethereum futures. These contracts will allow investors to trade futures positions in the spot market with the added advantage of longer expiry dates, eliminating the need for frequent rollover of positions.

"We are seeing high demand for our current Bitcoin and Ether futures with spot pricing: since their launch in June, over 1.3 million contracts have been sold, and we are pleased to add XRP and SOL to our offerings," said Giovanni Vichioso, head of cryptocurrency products at CME Group. "The contracts, designed for retail traders, are the smallest we offer in our crypto complex, providing clients with greater accuracy and market accessibility, while the pricing will align with conditions they are already familiar with. Moreover, futures with spot pricing will offer traders greater flexibility, allowing them to maintain a position according to their long-term perspective or easily open and close positions without the need for frequent rollovers."

Clearly, this move opens new opportunities for investors seeking access to these cryptocurrencies without the need for direct ownership. XRP and SOL futures will enable traders to bet on the future price of these assets using leverage and hedging strategies. CME Group's decision reflects the growing interest in cryptocurrencies among institutional investors as well. The exchange has previously launched successful futures for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The expansion of cryptocurrency derivatives indicates CME Group's belief in the long-term potential of these assets.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to $88,200, which opens a direct path to $90,700, and from there it's just a step away to $93,000. The furthest target will be the peak around $95,000, with a breakout at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $85,400 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $83,200, with the furthest target being the $81,200 area.

As for the technical picture of Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the $2,997 level opens a direct road to $3,105. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,233, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $2,858 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $2,763, with the furthest target being the $2,684 area.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 16

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Bitcoin has fallen to the $85,000 area and is currently not showing strong signs of recovery from these lows. Ethereum has also dropped below $3,000 and is poised to move toward $2,700.

Meanwhile, the head of the SEC made several statements yesterday regarding privacy in the crypto industry. According to him, blockchain is more transparent than any traditional financial system because every transaction is recorded in an open ledger, which creates certain risks for the future financial system. As a result, cryptocurrency could turn into the most powerful system of financial control when aggressive regulation is applied.

However, the SEC Chairman believes that the complete transparency of blockchain could harm the market. On one hand, the pursuit of full transparency is certainly noble. It creates a semblance of ideal financial democracy where every transaction is visible and understandable. However, as the SEC Chairman rightly points out, such transparency may have a downside. The inability of large players to execute trades discreetly could lead to undesirable consequences, particularly mass front-running. Imagine a scenario where every market player sees a large investor preparing to purchase a significant amount of assets. Competitors would immediately begin to copy that trade, artificially inflating the price and denying the first investor the chance to achieve maximum profit.

On the other hand, a complete lack of transparency is also unacceptable. Blockchain, like any other financial system, must be protected from abuses such as money laundering, financing of terrorism, and other illegal activities. The government must have the means to identify and combat these threats without violating citizens' rights to privacy and the protection of their personal information.

"Privacy tools in crypto should reduce, not increase, the need for total financial control. This is the path to safeguarding freedom and stimulating innovation," the SEC Chairman stated.

As for the intraday trading strategy on the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to focus on major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of further bullish market development in the mid-term, which has not disappeared.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $87,000, targeting growth to the level of $88,300. At around $88,300, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary at $86,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $87,000 and $88,300.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $86,100, targeting a drop to $85,000. At around $85,000, I will exit my sales and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $87,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards the $86,100 and $85,000 levels.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,969, targeting growth to the level of $3,021. At around $3,021, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome oscillator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also buy Ethereum at the lower boundary at $2,925 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,969 and $3,021.

Sell Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,925, targeting a drop to $2,860. At around $2,860, I will exit my sales and immediately buy on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome oscillator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: I can also sell Ethereum at the upper boundary at $2,969 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards $2,925 and $2,860.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 16. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.01 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. However, after the pair declined by 10 pips, the pressure eased.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after Japan's PMI data for manufacturing and services came in better than expected. The yen is also supported by increased expectations for a rate hike from the central bank later this week.

Investors will continue to pay close attention to the central bank's signals regarding its next steps. Given rising inflation and improving economic indicators, many analysts believe the Bank of Japan may adjust its monetary policy at the upcoming meeting. Currently, the probability of a rate hike stands at 94%. If the BOJ indeed raises interest rates, the yen will strengthen and put pressure on the dollar. In the short term, the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair will depend on further statements from the BOJ and macroeconomic data.

I would like to remind you that just yesterday, the BOJ highlighted progress in wage growth, a key factor supporting the case for an interest rate hike. The report showed that, despite US tariffs, wages in Japan continue to rise.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 155.03 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.66 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 155.66, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from that level. It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and on serious dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.70 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.03 and 155.66.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking the level of 154.70 (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.25 level, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 pips from that level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from there.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.03 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.70 and 154.25.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 16. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3387 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the pound. As a result, the pair only rose by 10 pips, after which the upward movement stalled.

Despite weak data from the US Empire State Manufacturing Index and Christopher Waller's dovish tone, the British pound remained within a range. This indicates that the recent strengthening of the pound has been linked to the weakness of the dollar rather than the strength of the pound itself. Expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England may lead to a much larger correction in the pair than anticipated.

This morning, there are several important economic reports that will set the direction for the GBP/USD pair. The publication of data on unemployment in the UK and changes in average earnings is likely to trigger significant volatility in the exchange rate. Equally impactful will be the business activity indices for the services sector and manufacturing sector in the UK. Market participants will closely monitor these releases as they can adjust expectations regarding the BoE's future monetary policy. Positive labor data, supported by rising wages, could lift the pound. Conversely, unfavorable labor market data could raise concerns about the prospects for UK economic growth, consequently weakening the pound's position. Likewise, the PMI figures, which provide insights into business activity in key industries, will be thoroughly analyzed to assess the overall state of the British economy. A drop in the PMI indices below 50, indicating a contraction in business activity, could further pressure the BoE to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, which could adversely affect the pound.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3365 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3385 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3385 point, I plan to exit my long positions and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry level. Strong growth in the pound can only be anticipated after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3350 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3365 and 1.3385.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after the level at 1.3350 (the red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3334 level, where I plan to exit my short positions and instantly open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers will return if labor market data is weak. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from there.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3365 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.3350 and 1.3334.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 16. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Advice on Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1752 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy euros. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.

Yesterday marked further strengthening of the euro against the US dollar. The statement from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve representative, that the central bank is on the right track to support the economy, along with weak US data, exerted additional pressure on the dollar. However, caution is essential; there are many important reports ahead from both the Eurozone and the US, and everything could change at any moment.

This morning, several key economic indicators from the Eurozone are expected to be published. A series of reports will begin with the PMI indices for the services and manufacturing sectors and the composite PMI, and conclude with the release of the ZEW economic sentiment indicators for the Eurozone and Germany. Investors and analysts will closely analyze these data, as they can provide crucial insights into the region's current economic state and near-term prospects. Unexpected changes in these figures could lead to fluctuations in financial markets and impact the value of the euro. In particular, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector is a vital leading indicator of business activity, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion, and below signaling a contraction in production. In turn, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index reflects analysts and investors' expectations regarding future economic conditions, serving as an indicator of market participants' optimism or pessimism. A significant improvement in this index could indicate a rise in confidence, supporting the euro towards new highs. Weak data from these indicators could severely limit the upside potential of the EUR/USD pair.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching around 1.1756 (the green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 1.1775. At point 1.1775, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can expect the euro to rise only after good reports. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1747 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal in the market. We can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1656 and 1.1775.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1747 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1731, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1756 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. We can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1747 and 1.1731.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Natural gas, as long as it does not break above the 4.305 level, has the potential to continue its weakening throughout the

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[Natural Gas]

With all technical conditions supporting the weakness in #NG, starting from the Death Cross condition between EMA(50) and EMA(200) along with the RSI(14) positioned in the Neutral-Bearish zone, the downward trend in Natural Gas seems to dominate today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 4.305

2. Resistance. 1 : 4.170

3. Pivot : 4.081

4. Support. 1 : 3.946

5. Support. 2 : 3.857

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of Natural Gas breaks down below 3.946, it could move toward 3.857.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 3.857 is broken, there is a high probability that Natural Gas will continue its decline down to 3.722.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if the price of #NG unexpectedly strengthens and breaks above 4.305.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 4.066

EMA(200): 4.304

RSI(14) : 36.93

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today, during the U.S. session, several important economic data releases will occur as follows:

US - ADP Weekly Employment Change - Tentative

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US- Core Retail Sales m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Retail Sales m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Flash Manufacturing PMI - 21:45 WIB

US - Flash Services PMI - 21:45 WIB

US - Business Inventories m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin - 04:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crude Oil has the potential to weaken down to its nearest support level today. Tuesday, December 16, 2025.

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[Crude Oil]

With the Death Cross condition of both EMAs and the RSI in the Neutral-Bearish zone, sellers appear to still be dominant in Crude Oil throughout today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 58.35

2. Resistance. 1 : 57.51

3. Pivot : 56.95

4. Support. 1 : 56.11

5. Support. 2 : 55.55

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 56.11, there is potential for Crude Oil to test the level at 55.55.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 55.55 is broken, #CL may continue its decline down to 54.71.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if the price of #CL unexpectedly strengthens and breaks above 58.35.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 56.91

EMA(200): 57.69

RSI(14) : 37.45 WIB

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today, during the U.S. session, several important economic data releases will occur as follows:

US - ADP Weekly Employment Change - Tentative

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US- Core Retail Sales m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Retail Sales m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Flash Manufacturing PMI - 21:45 WIB

US - Flash Services PMI - 21:45 WIB

US - Business Inventories m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin - 04:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 16. Pound Slows Down Growth

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.3374 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. The rise occurred, and the test at 1.3374 was completed, but suitable entry points did not form there. In the afternoon, a false breakout around 1.3395 provided an excellent entry point to sell the pound, resulting in a more than 40-pip decline in the pair.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

Despite weak data from the US Empire State Manufacturing Index and Christopher Waller's dovish tone, the British pound did not show strong gains against the dollar. Expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England this week limit the upward potential of the GBP/USD pair. A lot of reports are scheduled for release this morning. The UK unemployment rate and changes in average earnings could lead to a sharp spike in volatility for the GBP/USD pair, just like the data for the services sector business activity index and the PMI for the UK's manufacturing sector. In the event of weak data and further correction of the pair, I expect the first signs of buyers around the support level of 1.3356, formed as a result of yesterday's activity. Only after a false breakout there will it be a good opportunity to open long positions, targeting further growth towards resistance at 1.3395. A breakout and a retest above this range will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, leading to the stop-loss orders of sellers being taken out and a suitable entry point for long positions, with a potential exit at 1.3434. The farthest target will be the 1.3468 area, where I plan to take profits. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of buying activity at 1.3356, pressure on the pair will intensify, driving it towards the next support level at 1.3322. Only if there is a false breakout will there be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from the low of 1.3287, targeting a 30-35-pip intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers of the pound emerged at the end of the day, keeping the market within a narrow sideways channel. A breakout will determine the pair's further direction. In the event of a rise in GBP/USD, bears need to act around the nearest resistance level of 1.3395. Only a false breakout there will provide grounds for selling GBP/USD, targeting a decline to the support level of 1.3356, where the moving averages align with the bulls. A breakout and a retest from below this range after weak PMI data will deliver a more significant blow to buyers' positions, leading to stop-loss orders being taken out and opening the path to 1.3322. The farthest target will be the 1.3287 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD rises and bears remain inactive at 1.3395, buyers will regain momentum for the bullish trend, potentially leading to a surge toward 1.3434. I plan to open short positions there only after a false breakout. In the absence of a downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3468, expecting only a 30-35-pip intraday correction.

Recommended for Review:

Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is only from November 18.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Pressure on the dollar remains—especially after the US Federal Reserve lowered rates again. However, demand for the pound is not as strong due to potential changes in the Bank of England's policy in the near future, which could also lead to a reduction in borrowing costs. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be influenced by new fundamental statistics. The last COT report indicated that non-commercial long positions increased by 766 to 53,189, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 981 to 132,446. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 282.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading occurs around the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.
• (Note: The periods and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the traditional definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.)
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary will act as support around 1.3355.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise, highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise, highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA - period 12. Slow EMA - period 26. SMA - period 9.
• Bollinger Bands (Period - 20).
• Non-commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long Non-commercial Positions: Represents the total open long position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-commercial Positions: Represents the total open short position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-commercial Net Position: The difference between short and long positions among non-commercial traders

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 16. Euro Continues Steady Growth

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1748 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. The rise occurred, but it did not reach the test of 1.1748, so I missed trading opportunities. In the afternoon, a false breakout in the area of 1.1748 allowed for long positions, resulting in a 20-pip increase in the pair.

To Open Long Positions on EURUSD:

Yesterday, the euro continued to rise against the dollar after statements from Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller, who indicated that the central bank is on the right path to stimulate the economy and reduce rates. Weak US data also put pressure on the dollar. Today, a significant amount of important data from the Eurozone is expected. It will begin with data on the services sector business activity index, the manufacturing PMI, and the composite PMI, and conclude with the ZEW economic sentiment indices for the Eurozone and Germany. With poor data and a bearish reaction, I expect to see the first signs of buyers around the 1.1740 support level. Only after a false breakout forms can we obtain an entry point for long positions, aiming for a recovery to around 1.1768, which could not be broken above yesterday. A breakout and a retest of this range will confirm the correct buying actions on the euro, anticipating a larger surge to 1.1793. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1817, where I will take profits. Testing this level will strengthen the bullish market for the euro. In the event of a decline in EUR/USD and a lack of activity around 1.1740, pressure on the pair will increase—especially before important US data—and bears will aim to reach the next interesting level at 1.1711. Only if there is a false breakout will there be a suitable condition to buy the euro. Long positions will open immediately at a rebound from 1.1684, targeting an upward correction of 30-35 pips intraday.

To Open Short Positions on EURUSD:

Sellers showed up only after yesterday's update of the weekly high. But today, they will have their chance. This opportunity could come from weak Eurozone PMI data or strong US labor market data. If further growth in EUR/USD continues the trend in the first half of the day, bears can only rely on the nearest resistance level of 1.1768. A false breakout there will give an entry point for short positions targeting the support level of 1.1740, where the moving averages align with the bulls. A breakout and settlement below this range against very weak Eurozone data, accompanied by a retest from below, will also present a suitable option for opening short positions targeting around 1.1711. The most distant target will be the area of 1.1684, where I will take profits. In the case of an upward move in EUR/USD following the trend and a lack of active bearish action around 1.1768, buyers will have a good opportunity to sustain bullish market development. In such a case, it would be best to postpone short positions until the larger level of 1.1793. Selling there will occur only after a failed attempt to stabilize. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1817, targeting a downward correction of 30-35 pips.

Recommended for Review:

Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is only from November 18.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to exert pressure on the US dollar. The COT report indicated that non-commercial long positions increased by 8,041 to a level of 243,961, while non-commercial short positions decreased by 17,377 to a level of 144,954. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 2,833.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading occurs above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth for the euro.
• (Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the standard definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.)
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary will act as support around 1.1740.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average (period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise, highlighted in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise, highlighted in green on the chart.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA - period 12. Slow EMA - period 26. SMA - period 9.
• Bollinger Bands (Period - 20).
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions among non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 16

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The euro and the Japanese yen retain all chances for further growth against the US dollar, while the British pound faces diminishing buying pressure amid concerns about the potential for a dovish policy from the Bank of England.

The euro and pound continued to rise against the dollar yesterday following remarks from Federal Reserve member Christopher Waller, who said the central bank is on the right track in stimulating the economy. Traders interpreted these words as a signal for a more accommodative monetary policy in the future, which weakened the dollar's position. The market also reacted positively to Eurozone economic data, which came in somewhat better than expected.

Today, a significant amount of important reports from the Eurozone is anticipated. It will start with data on the business activity index in the services sector of the Eurozone, the PMI for the manufacturing sector, and the composite PMI index, and will conclude with the ZEW economic sentiment index for the Eurozone and Germany. Traders and analysts will pay close attention to these figures, as they can provide key insights into the current state of the region's economy and its near-term prospects.

The PMI for the manufacturing sector, in particular, is an important indicator of manufacturing activity and usually precedes broader economic trends. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. On the other hand, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index reflects analysts' and investors' expectations regarding future economic conditions. It can provide insights into how optimistic or pessimistic market participants are. A significant improvement in this index could indicate a recovery of confidence, which would support the euro.

Regarding the pound, in addition to similar PMI data, attention will shift to figures for the UK unemployment rate and changes in average earnings. Traders will be highly attentive to these reports, as they could significantly affect forecasts of the BoE's future monetary policy. Strong employment data and rising wages could prompt the central bank to take more aggressive actions, thereby strengthening the British pound. Conversely, weak labor market indicators could raise concerns about the UK economy's prospects and subsequently weaken the pound's position.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the numbers are significantly above or below economists' forecasts, the Momentum strategy would be most effective.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Long positions on a breakout of 1.1768 could lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1793 and 1.1817;
• Short positions on a breakout of 1.1740 could lead to a decrease in the euro to around 1.1711 and 1.1684;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Longs on a breakout of 1.3378 could lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3400 and 1.3434;
• Shorts on a breakout of 1.3350 could lead to a decrease in the pound to around 1.3320 and 1.3287;

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Longs on a breakout of 155.00 could lead to a rise in the dollar to around 155.32 and 155.75;
• Shorts on a breakout of 154.70 could result in a sell-off for the dollar to around 154.35 and 154.00;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1763 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.1746 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3384 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3353 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6649 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6621 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3781 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3759 on a return to this level;

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 16-18, 2025: sell below 1.1779 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.1754, a level that coincides with the top of the uptrend channel formed on the daily chart since November 25.

EUR/USD is expected to encounter strong resistance around the 5/8 Murray located at 1.1795, so this will be seen as a key level for entering short positions only if the euro approaches this area.

On the other hand, if the price loses momentum, we could expect it to reach the key 4/8 Murray support around 1.1718 and could even reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1.1695.

A technical rebound above 1.1700 could be seen as an opportunity to resume buying with a short-term target around 6/8 Murray located at 1.1840.

Conversely, a sharp break of the uptrend channel and consolidation below 1.1690 could change the scenario for the euro, and we could expect a strong technical correction with a target at the 21 SMA located at 1.1644. EUR/USD could even reach the 200 EMA at 1.1507.

Our outlook remains bullish for the euro. However, we are seeing signs of exhaustion on the daily chart, so the odds are that there will be a technical correction before resuming its upward cycle.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 16-18, 2025: buy above $85,000 (21 SMA - rebound)

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Bitcoin is trading around $85,797, below the 2/8 Murray and with a bearish bias after reaching resistance levels around $90,000.

If Bitcoin trades within the secondary uptrend channel and rebounds around $85,000, we could expect a recovery, and it could reach the top of the downtrend channel formed at about $90,200 on the daily chart since September 25.

A decisive break of the main bullish trend channel in consolidation above $90,500 could be seen as a clear signal to buy Bitcoin with a target at the 4/8 Murray, around the psychological level of $100,000, and it could even reach the 200 EMA around $102,811.

Conversely, a sharp break below $85,500 could accelerate the bearish cycle, and BTC could reach $81,250 in the medium term, around the 0/8 Murray.

If bearish pressure prevails, BTC could fall to about $75,000 and could eventually reach the -1/8 Murray around $68,750.

Technically, according to the daily chart, Bitcoin is reaching oversold levels, but there is still bearish strength, so we must be careful when opening long positions.

Our outlook remains bearish, but we should wait for a clear signal if the price falls below $85,000. Above $85,500, we could open long positions and continue buying.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for December 16-18, 2025: buy above $2,900 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray)

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Ethereum is trading around $2,947 under bearish pressure, having fallen below $3,080 and below the 2/8 Murray. Ether could continue its fall in the coming hours until it reaches 1/8 Murray around 2,850. It could even continue its decline and reach $2,500 around the 0/8 Murray.

On the daily chart, we can see that the instrument is trading within an uptrend channel formed since November 20 and is likely to find good support around $2,920.

If Ether rebounds in the coming hours and consolidates above $2,900, it could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions, with targets at $3,080 and $3,125.

A sharp break below the uptrend channel could be seen as a clear signal to sell in the medium term, and ETH/USD could reach the psychological level of $2,500.

If the price returns to trade above 2/8 Murray, the outlook could be positive, and we could enter long positions with a target at the 3/8 Murray around 3,437.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 16-18, 2025: sell below $4,300 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,289 within the upward trend channel formed on the charts since October 28. A strong technical correction is observed after reaching a high of $4,350, but approaching important support levels.

In the coming days, gold (XAU/USD) is expected to reach key support at $4,212 around the 21 SMA or the 3/8 of Murray located at $4,218, and could even reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around $4,200.

If this scenario occurs and gold rebounds above $4,200, it could be seen as a signal to open long positions, with a target at $4,375, and we even expect it to reach the psychological level of $4,500.

A sharp break in the uptrend channel and a consolidation below $4,200 could push gold down to the key support level of 2/8 Murray. The instrument could even reach the October 28 low around $3,900.

The Eagle indicator is approaching oversold levels, so we believe that there could be a technical correction in the coming days, and gold could reach the key level of $4,200, followed by a technical rebound.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 16? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

A large number of macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Tuesday, and most deserve traders' close attention. In the Eurozone, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for December, as well as economic sentiment indices, will be released today. In the UK, reports on the unemployment rate, number of unemployed, wages, and business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published. In the US, key reports include Non-Farm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, the ADP report, retail sales, and business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors. Certainly, Non-Farm Payrolls and the US unemployment rate will be the most significant, but all British reports could also affect price formation, and some European reports may affect the euro's exchange rate.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Tuesday, but traders do not actually need them today. The sheer volume of important macroeconomic data being published today means that any speech by a significant official will inevitably take a back seat. It is also worth noting that the Federal Reserve meeting took place last week, so there are currently no questions from the market for the US central bank. The European Central Bank and Bank of England meetings will take place on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, so it is unlikely that their representatives will provide comments on monetary policy just a couple of days beforehand.

General Conclusions:

On the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may again rise, as an upward trend continues in both cases. However, the enormous number of important reports being published today will ensure that the technical picture is clearly not the primary focus. The euro has a zone of 1.1745-1.1754 for opening positions around it, while the British pound has a zone of 1.3319-1.3331.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Monday's Trades:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also traded very sluggishly on Monday. The market found no compelling reasons to open positions ahead of several blocks of important data and fundamental events in the US, EU, and the UK. Reports will begin publication today. If interesting reports are released in the Eurozone, they are not particularly important, whereas in the UK, they are indeed crucial. For example, the unemployment rate, which has been rising recently, directly affects the Bank of England's monetary policy. The next meeting of the BoE is scheduled for this Thursday, and in the meantime, UK inflation will also be published, which significantly influences the Bank's key rate. Not to mention the US Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports, which are not only important for the Federal Reserve but have not been published for several months. Thus, it looks like we will see sharp, strong movements not only today but throughout the week.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, no trading signals were formed as the price did not approach any significant levels. Therefore, there were no grounds for novice traders to open trades for the second consecutive day.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a local upward trend. As mentioned, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we also anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could lead the pair to the 1.4000 mark in the coming months.

On Tuesday, novice traders can look for new long positions if the price bounces off the trend line or the 1.3319-1.3331 area, targeting 1.3413-1.3421. If the specified area is broken, short positions will become relevant with a target at 1.3212. However, today the macroeconomic background will take precedence over the technical picture.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the levels to consider for trading are 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Tuesday, important reports concerning business activity, unemployment, the number of unemployed, and wages are scheduled in the UK. In the US, even more significant reports, including Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, as well as less critical reports such as ADP and S&P business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors, will be released.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 16? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Monday's Trades:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very weakly on Monday. The macroeconomic background was almost non-existent that day, so it is not surprising that volatility was extremely low. Nevertheless, the upward trend remains, and in the course of the current week, anything can be expected from the pair. It's important to note that today marks the start of release of key macroeconomic data in the EU, the UK, and the US. While European reports are interesting, they are not super important; the US reports could trigger an "atomic bomb explosion" in the currency market. Of course, the Non-Farm Payroll and unemployment reports could turn out to be "bland," but we believe that even "bland" reports could provoke significant market movements, simply because the market has been waiting for them for over two months. Thus, the movements of the pair today will depend not on technical trends or trading signals, but on the macroeconomic backdrop, which will unfold in stages throughout the day.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, two trading signals were formed, but again, the movements were weak, making it pointless to act on them. The first signal formed during the night, and the second during the US trading session, when it was already clear that we would not see any interesting movements. Today, signals may continue to form in the area of 1.1745-1.1754, but throughout the day, amid macroeconomic reports, traders may see sharp, non-technical price reversals.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, even though the price crossed the trend line last week. The fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the US dollar; thus, we expect further gains for the pair. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat on the daily timeframe persists, and after a reversal around the lower boundary, it is reasonable to expect growth towards the upper boundary.

On Tuesday, novice traders can again trade from the area of 1.1745-1.1754. A new bounce from this area to the downside will allow for the opening of short positions targeting 1.1655-1.1666. A breakout above this area will indicate long positions with a target of 1.1808.

On the 5-minute timeframe, key levels to consider are 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, important reports on business activity indices and economic sentiment indices are scheduled for release in the Eurozone. In the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rate, ADP report, and business activity indices in both the services and manufacturing sectors will be published.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. December 16. The Countdown Begins...

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The GBP/USD currency pair traded quite calmly throughout Monday, and calm movements for the pound this week would be the best possible scenario. It is worth noting that the Bank of England is very likely to lower the key interest rate this week, which is a "bearish" factor. We still believe that the pound will not face any significant problems in this regard, as the US dollar rose in October and November without any clear grounds. Thus, we maintain the view that the global upward trend remains intact, indicating that the pound will continue to rise. However, it cannot be denied that this week holds many sharp turns for the British currency, just as it does for the US dollar.

The British currency will start to face challenges as early as today. In the morning, reports on unemployment, wages, and unemployment claims will be released. However, we would like to remind you that the British macroeconomic background is not as important to the market as the American one. What does this mean? If the US unemployment rate increases by 0.1%, it will elicit a stronger market reaction than a similar unemployment report from the UK. Therefore, at first glance, there is no special danger for the British pound today. Experts forecast unemployment rising to 5.1%, so the market is already prepared for this level, and a sharply negative reaction would only be possible if the figure rose to 5.2% or higher.

Additionally, business activity indices will be released in the UK today, which may prompt a market reaction only if there is a significant deviation from forecast values. In any case, even weak indices should not trigger a collapse of the British currency. However, after lunch, the US dollar will face challenges.

It is currently impossible to predict what the November Non-Farm Payroll report will reveal. One could speculate, of course, but few are likely to hit the mark. Everything is quite straightforward here. The better the report is relative to forecasts, the stronger the dollar will rise. In this case, the market reaction could be significant. If the actual figure is weaker than forecasted, that will be just what is needed for the GBP/USD pair to continue its rise according to the current technical picture.

It is also important to highlight that the unemployment report carries the same weight as the Non-Farm Payrolls. However, a poor Non-Farm figure does not guarantee a similar result in the unemployment report. These reports may even contradict each other, which complicates life for traders. Some experts believe that the unemployment rate could rise to 4.6%, which would be a severe failure, sending the dollar into freefall. But we must not forget that forecasts are just forecasts, and no one is accountable for them. Therefore, today is certainly set to be an exciting day.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 70 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Thus, on Tuesday, December 16, we expect movements within the range bound by levels 1.3309 and 1.3449. The upper linear regression channel is downward-sloping, but only due to a technical correction on the higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area six times in the past months and has formed several "bullish" divergences, constantly warning of a resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator formed another bullish divergence, but the week ended with two entries into the overbought area and a "bearish" divergence. Conclusion: a correction within an upward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3367
• S2 – 1.3306
• S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3428
• R2 – 1.3489
• R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume its upward trend for 2025, and its long-term prospects have not changed. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the US currency to rise. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term while the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245 on technical grounds. Occasionally, the US currency shows corrections (on a global scale), but for a trend-based strengthening, it requires signs of a resolution to the trade war or other positive global factors.

Illustration Explanations:

• Linear Regression Channels help to determine the current trend. If both are directed in one way, it indicates that the trend is strong.
• Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray Levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines) – the likely price channel in which the pair will operate in the coming day, based on current volatility indicators.
• CCI Indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) signifies an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.