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GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The GBP/JPY pair remains above the psychological level of 200.00, attempting once again to break through 200.35, which it surpassed on Friday. On Thursday, the Bank of England will publish its monetary policy decision, and it appears the main rate will remain unchanged at 4%. In addition, the regulator is expected to maintain a cautious wait-and-see stance through the end of 2025, given the recent rise in inflation expectations. These factors continue to support the British pound, providing a tailwind for the GBP/JPY pair.

The Japanese yen, in contrast, continues to struggle to attract significant buyers amid expectations that domestic political turmoil may give the Bank of Japan additional reasons to delay rate hikes. This backdrop favors bulls in GBP/JPY. At the same time, most market participants lean toward the view that the Bank of Japan is still on course to gradually normalize its policy.

The recent U.S.–Japan agreement has removed a major source of uncertainty in relations between the two countries. In addition, revised Japanese GDP growth data for Q2, along with labor market tensions and the first increase in real incomes in seven months, confirm the possibility of another Bank of Japan rate hike later this year. This scenario stands in contrast to softer expectations from the Bank of England and may limit further GBP/JPY growth.

As a result, the market's main focus is on the outcome of the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting scheduled for Friday, where monetary policy directions will be reviewed. In addition, key U.K. labor market data due on Tuesday, as well as consumer inflation figures to be released on Wednesday, may influence pound quotes and further impact GBP/JPY dynamics. Nevertheless, ahead of these central bank events, market reaction is expected to remain cautious, given the risks.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, and the pair has broken above the psychological level of 200.00. The 9-day EMA is positioned above the 14-day EMA, with prices trading above both. This indicates that the path of least resistance for the pair is upward.

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EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The EUR/USD pair started the current week on a positive note, holding above the 1.1730 level. In the event of a pullback, the downward potential appears limited, given the divergence in expectations for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve policy, as well as ahead of key central bank events scheduled for this week.

As expected, last Thursday the ECB left interest rates unchanged, maintaining optimism about economic growth and inflation. In addition, the regulator emphasized that it would be guided by incoming data at its meetings, without making specific commitments in advance regarding the future path of rates. This approach reduced expectations of further borrowing cost cuts and supported the euro and EUR/USD.

As a result, traders lowered the probability of another ECB rate cut before spring to around 40%. This gives the euro an advantage over the Fed, which is expected to cut rates this week. The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates more than a 90% probability of a 25 bp rate cut on Wednesday. These expectations weaken the U.S. dollar, creating a favorable backdrop for EUR/USD growth.

Even so, euro buyers remain cautious for now, preferring to wait for the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting on monetary policy scheduled for Wednesday. Traders are focused on signals regarding the Fed's future course, which will determine the short-term movement of the dollar and have a significant impact on EUR/USD. In this context, fundamentals suggest that any pullback may offer a good opportunity to enter long positions.

Today, attention should be paid to speeches by ECB official Isabel Schnabel and ECB President Christine Lagarde.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, prices are trading above the 9-day EMA, and the 9-day EMA is positioned above the 14-day EMA, which is currently aligned with the 1.1700 round level. This indicates a bullish outlook for the pair.

The nearest resistance is at the 1.1700 round level, above which the pair will reach a monthly high on the way toward 1.1800. Support lies at the 1.1700 round level, followed by 1.1685. The 50-SMA at 1.1660 will serve as the key pivot point.

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Bitcoin moves into green zone but encounters red light

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Bitcoin remains quite resilient, following an uptrend. However, this growth is fragile, experts warn investors. Meanwhile, the outlook for the US dollar is unstable and leans negative. Against this backdrop, analysts believe that the dollar may require shock therapy for a meaningful recovery.

On Monday, September 15, Bitcoin opened the day with a slight decline, trading near $115,670. At its daily peak, the leading cryptocurrency reached $116,181. According to analysts, BTC has launched a new upward wave, rising above $112,500 and breaking through resistance levels at $113,500 and $114,200.

At the start of the new week, Bitcoin bulls managed to push the price above $115,000 and $116,000, which led to consolidation. Later, Bitcoin pulled back below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally from the swing low of $110,815 to the high of $116,743.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading just above $115,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. However, on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair, a bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $116,000. Experts estimate the nearest resistance in this uptrend lies around $116,000. The next resistance could be around $116,750, potentially pushing BTC toward $117,500. If that level is tested, Bitcoin could continue climbing toward $118,500, with the next obstacle for bulls at $118,800.

If Bitcoin fails to break above the $116,200 resistance zone, a new decline may begin. Immediate support is now seen near $114,900, while major support remains at $113,750 — the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent move from $110,815 to $116,743.

According to analysts, further losses could push Bitcoin down toward $112,500 or even lower, although this is considered an extreme scenario that Bitcoin is likely to avoid.

Bitcoin has also found support from a surge in inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. After two weeks of moderate flows, net weekly inflows jumped nearly tenfold at the end of last week — reaching $2.34 billion, the highest since mid-July 2025.

Experts believe the crypto market has momentum heading into Q4 this year. This rally — supported by treasury-backed institutions — is being driven by increased liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and promising regulatory developments in the digital asset space.

Does the US dollar need shock therapy to recover?

In the current climate, the US dollar is finding it increasingly difficult to remain steady. It's under consistent pressure and facing downside risks. According to analysts, a full recovery for the USD may require a shock, not just to the dollar, but to the global economy and financial system as a whole. However, no such major event is on the horizon.

A brief moment of support for the dollar came from the decision to allow Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to attend the September FOMC meeting. At the same time, expectations are growing for further monetary policy easing by the Fed.

This shift in stance comes after a record downward revision in US employment data — wiping out 911,000 jobs from previous estimates — and an unexpected drop in producer price indexes (PPI) in August.

Against this backdrop, the US dollar Index (DXY) has remained in a narrow range of 97–98 points for the past five weeks. This follows a six-month USD downtrend and an unsuccessful attempt at a rebound in July. In this context, a sideways move is seen as a bearish signal for the dollar. Analysts say the limited scope of the current bounce suggests sellers remain in control.

At the same time, the dollar is now hovering near a 13-year uptrend support line. But even staying at this level likely won't prevent further weakness, according to experts.

Market participants are increasingly expecting the Fed to carry out a series of 4–5 rate cuts. Analysts consider this scenario quite realistic. If that happens, the fundamentals will be in place for continued dollar weakness at the start of the new fiscal year.

A reversal of this negative trend may only be possible if there is a major shock in global financial markets. But as of now, there are no clear signs of such a development.

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EUR/USD. September 15th. Preparing for key events

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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated ahead of a new and important week. Quotes remained throughout the day above the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695, which preserves the prospects of growth toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. Thus, on Monday and Tuesday, in the absence of new signals, I expect the uptrend to continue. Likely weak growth, as the news background during these days will be light. A close below 1.1695 would favor the U.S. currency and a decline toward the support zone at 1.1637–1.1645.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave broke the peak of the previous wave, while the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend is currently bullish, although not very strong or confident. The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for Fed monetary policy support only the bullish traders.

There were few important reports on Friday. Inflation in Germany rose to 2.2% y/y in August, but the ECB has already informed the markets that it does not intend to conduct further monetary easing in the near future. However, the regulator also does not expect strong inflation growth, so most likely this indicator will continue to hover around 2%, without causing discomfort. In the U.S., the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined again, but traders were already resting and waiting for the new week.

This week, several speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde and the Fed meeting will take place. The Fed meeting will determine the pair's further movement. The question now can be framed as follows: how many times will the Fed cut rates before the end of the year? The baseline scenario – twice; the dovish scenario – three times. Traders lean toward the dovish scenario, so Jerome Powell's comments will be very important. However, I do not think the Fed Chair will give any forecasts. Most likely, he will limit himself to the standard phrase: "the Fed's decisions will depend on economic data."

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the horizontal channel, which allows traders to expect further growth toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854. No emerging divergences are visible on any indicator today. A rebound from 1.1854 would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline, while consolidation above 1.1854 would increase the pair's chances of continuing higher toward the next level at 1.2066.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

In the last reporting week, professional players opened 2,389 long positions and closed 3,696 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 258,000, compared with 132,000 short positions. The gap is practically twofold. Also note the number of green cells in the table above, reflecting strong increases in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.

For thirty-one consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they could trigger numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several key trade agreements, many major economic indicators continue to decline.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (06:00–10:00 UTC).

September 15 – the economic calendar contains one entry of little importance. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be weak.

EUR/USD forecast and trading tips:

Sales can be considered today if the hourly chart closes below 1.1695, targeting the 1.1637–1.1645 zone. Purchases could have been made at the end of last week when the pair closed above 1.1695, targeting the 1.1789–1.1802 zone. These trades can remain open today, with Stop Loss moved to breakeven.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

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GBP/USD. September 15th. The Bank of England may support the bulls

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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD traded sideways on Friday just below the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3587. A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3482, which traders could then work through. A consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620 would allow for further growth toward the next 127.2% retracement level at 1.3708.

The wave picture continues to shift toward bullish. The last completed wave downward broke through two previous lows, while the new upward wave broke through the last two peaks. Thus, at this point it can be assumed that a new bullish trend is starting after more than two months of weak bearish dominance. That dominance proved very fragile, as the news background in most cases did not support the bears.

On Friday, the bulls did not receive the necessary news background to overcome key levels and zones. U.K. GDP in July did not increase even by 0.1%, and industrial production fell again—something traders are already accustomed to. This week, a lot will depend on the outcomes of the Fed and Bank of England meetings. The Fed may follow the baseline scenario, but any dovish hint about labor market weakness or the possibility of three policy easings by year-end would support the bulls. The Bank of England, on the other hand, is likely to take a "neutral" stance, as U.K. inflation continues to rise. I believe that one or two MPC members will vote for a rate cut, which is unlikely to strongly support the bears. Thus, on Monday, the news background appears to favor the bulls. However, I want to remind you that central bank meetings are multifaceted events. Jerome Powell may say something unexpected. Andrew Bailey may adopt a less "neutral" stance. Or the number of MPC members voting for a rate cut could exceed forecasts. In all these cases, bulls may retreat. Still, the bullish trend remains in place, and if not now, then within a week the pound is likely to continue its rise.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair completed a new reversal in favor of the pound and consolidated above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Thus, growth may continue toward the next 127.2% retracement level at 1.3795. The chart pattern is currently ambiguous, with traders moving the pair in both directions. At this stage, I recommend paying more attention to the hourly chart. There are more levels there and it is easier to work with waves. No emerging divergences are visible on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category did not change in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators fell by 1,213, while the number of short positions fell by 748. The gap between longs and shorts is currently about 75,000 versus 109,000. But as we can see, the pound is still leaning toward growth, and traders toward buying.

In my view, the pound still faces the prospect of declines. The news background in the first half of the year was disastrous for the U.S. dollar but is gradually stabilizing. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy in Q2 is expected to recover thanks to tariffs and various types of investment in the U.S. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year are already creating strong pressure on the dollar, as the U.S. labor market is weakening and unemployment is rising. Thus, I still see no basis for a "dollar trend."

News calendar for the U.S. and U.K.:

September 15 – the economic calendar contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will not affect market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Sales of the pair are possible on a rebound from 1.3587 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3482. Purchases are possible today on a close above the 1.3611–1.3620 zone with a target of 1.3708.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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Bitcoin aims for breakout to $117,000

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Bitcoin continues to gain bullish momentum. At the time of early European trading, it has once again returned to its weekly high around $116,800. Ethereum has also seen solid gains after ending last week on an optimistic note.

As traders gear up for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting — which could push the crypto market even higher — Arthur Hayes gave a new interview, urging Bitcoin investors to remain patient, as the current bull market could last until 2026. Hayes expects Donald Trump to launch a major economic stimulus in mid-2026, potentially triggering explosive growth in the cryptocurrency market.

Hayes' forecast is based on several key factors.

First, he expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy in response to slowing economic growth. This would increase market liquidity and, as a result, drive up the prices of risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Second, Hayes believes Donald Trump will act as a catalyst for a new wave of economic expansion. Known for his support of tax cuts and deregulation, Trump's policies, according to Hayes, will likely boost investment and consumer spending. This would create a favorable environment for crypto market growth.

Third, Hayes points out that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly attractive to institutional investors. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, more large corporations and investment funds are allocating capital to the sector. Hayes believes this trend will continue, providing additional support for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

Let's not forget about the altcoin season. According to data, the Altseason Index has climbed to 80 — its highest level since the euphoric aftermath of Trump's 2024 election victory. This suggests that the altseason is in full swing. Many market analysts still expect it to peak in Q3 of this year.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin (BTC) In terms of the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $116,000 level, which opens a clear path toward $117,500 — and from there, it's a short distance to $118,600. The final target would be the high near $119,300; breaking through that level would confirm a strengthening bull market.

In case of a pullback, buyers are expected around $114,600. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC down toward $113,200, with the final support target at $111,900.

Ethereum (ETH) As for Ethereum, a solid consolidation above the $4,697 level opens the way to $4,784. The ultimate upside target is the high near $4,913; a breakout above that would signal a stronger bull market and renewed buyer interest. If ETH pulls back, buyers are expected at $4,601. A drop below this zone could push ETH down to $4,519, with the final target around $4,418.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

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GBP/USD. Technical analysis for the week of September 15–20, 2025

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Trend analysis.

This week, from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3787 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.3658 – the upper fractal (weekly candle of July 6, 2025).

Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volumes – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – upward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Monthly chart – upward.

Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: upward trend.

Overall summary of GBP/USD weekly candle calculation: during the week, the price is most likely to show an upward trend with the absence of a lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday – upward) and the presence of an upper shadow (Friday – downward).

Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3658 – the upper fractal (weekly candle of July 6, 2025). Upon reaching this level, the price may then move downward toward 1.3579 – the historical support level (blue dashed line).

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EUR/USD. Technical analysis for the week of September 15–20, 2025

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Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

This week, from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.1886 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.1828 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (weekly chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volumes – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – upward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Monthly chart – upward.

Conclusion from comprehensive analysis: upward trend.

Overall summary of EUR/USD weekly candle calculation: during the week, the price is most likely to show an upward trend with the absence of a lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday – upward) and the presence of an upper shadow (Friday – downward).

Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of the last weekly candle), the pair may continue moving upward toward 1.1828 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may retrace downward toward 1.1717 – the 14.6% retracement level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Indicator analysis on September 15, 2025

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Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may start moving upward toward 1.3593 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). Upon testing this line, the price may then move downward toward 1.3582 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 11, 2025).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volumes – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – upward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Weekly chart – upward.

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.3556 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving upward toward 1.3582 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 11, 2025). Upon testing this level, the price may then move downward toward 1.3543 – the historical support level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 15/09/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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EUR/USD. Indicator analysis on September 15, 2025

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Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Monday, from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the market may continue upward toward 1.1788 – the upper fractal (yellow dashed line). Upon reaching this level, a downward move toward 1.1747 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 12, 2025) – is possible.

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volumes – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – upward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Weekly chart – upward.

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.1734 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue upward toward 1.1747 – the upper fractal (daily candle of September 12, 2025). Upon reaching this level, a pullback downward toward 1.1697 – the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dashed line) – is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock Market on September 15: S&P 500 and NASDAQ remain near record highs

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Last Friday, US equity indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged down 0.05%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.49%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.49%.

At the start of this week, the indices remain close to all-time highs, as investors focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy. The global equity index held steady after closing at its highest on Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index pared gains after briefly closing above its previous record from February 2021. Chinese indexes advanced 0.4%, despite weak data on manufacturing and consumption. French 10-year bond futures fell after Fitch Ratings downgraded France's credit rating from AA- to A+.

The key question for investors this week is whether Fed officials will push back against market expectations for a series of rate cuts that many economists anticipate will extend through next year. The Fed's decision on Wednesday will set the tone for global markets, but it is not the only major event on the calendar. The Bank of Canada, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are also due to announce monetary policy decisions, making this a pivotal week for central banks worldwide.

In China, economic activity slowed for a second straight month, outpacing expectations due to a sharp drop in investment. August data from China offers little encouragement: exports remain under pressure from tariffs, and a slump in the property market continues to weigh on domestic demand. Still, markets seem to be ignoring these signals: households with cash on hand are returning to equities, while the artificial intelligence boom is fueling tech stock gains. Liquidity inflows from Chinese households, combined with AI-related momentum, are feeding a self-fulfilling prophecy. Rising tech valuations are attracting new investors, who in turn drive prices even higher. However, such euphoria is unlikely to last.

It is clear that Chinese authorities will have to take more decisive measures to stimulate the economy and restore confidence among larger investors. If negative trends persist, even robust growth in artificial intelligence will not be enough to compensate for underlying fundamental issues. More aggressive fiscal policy may be needed to support domestic demand and boost infrastructure investment. Otherwise, a bubble in Chinese equities could burst, carrying serious consequences for the global economy.

From a technical standpoint, the immediate task for S&P 500 buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at $6,590. Breaking through this level would enable further growth and open the way to the next target at $6,603. Equally important is maintaining control above $6,616, which would further strengthen the bull case. If risk appetite wanes and the index moves lower, buyers will need to defend the $6,577 area. A break below this support would quickly send the index back to $6,563 and open the path toward $6,552.

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Rubis shines, banks strengthen: Europe restores investor optimism

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Banks lift European markets

European stocks opened the week with modest gains, largely supported by bank shares. Investors are bracing for a pivotal series of central bank meetings in the coming days, with the US Federal Reserve at the center of attention.

Rubis shines after takeover talk

Shares of French energy retailer Rubis surged following reports of potential acquisition interest. According to market sources, both CVC Capital Partners and commodities trader Trafigura are considering a deal. The news sent Rubis stock up by 6.7 percent, making it the best performer within the STOXX 600 index. The company's market value is estimated at around 3.5 billion dollars.

Banking sector leads the way

The pan-European STOXX 600 index climbed 0.2 percent in early trading, reaching 556.2 points. Banks, typically sensitive to rate moves, were the strongest contributors, adding nearly 0.8 percent. In France, the CAC 40 index advanced 0.4 percent. Shares of Societe Generale gained 1.3 percent, while BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole rose about 0.9 percent each.

France faces ratings challenge

Meanwhile, the market continues to digest Fitch's downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating announced on Friday. The move complicates the position of newly appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who is about to engage in difficult budget negotiations.

Focus on the Federal Reserve

The spotlight later this week will turn to the Federal Reserve, as investors await its decision on interest rates. Any signals from the US central bank are expected to set the tone for global markets in the near term.

Optimism fueled by rate cut expectations

Global markets opened the week on a positive note as traders increasingly expect the US Federal Reserve to respond to signs of labor market weakness with at least a quarter-point rate cut. Such a move would mark the first dovish policy shift of the year.

Asia hovers near multi-year highs

Asian stocks on Monday held steady near four-year peaks. Investors anticipate a packed week of central bank meetings that could restart the Fed's easing cycle and potentially pave the way for a series of rate reductions in the months ahead.

Central banks under the spotlight

Beyond the Fed, attention is also directed toward other key regulators. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to lower its rate by 25 basis points, while both the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are likely to leave policy unchanged.

European and US futures edge higher

European equity markets are set to open with modest gains: futures on the EUROSTOXX 50 advanced 0.3 percent. US benchmarks also pointed upward, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures adding 0.1 percent each.

Market bets on the Fed

Traders are pricing in with near certainty a quarter-point Fed rate cut, which would bring the federal funds target range down to 4.0 - 4.25%. Futures imply only a slim four percent chance of a deeper, half-point cut.

Quiet session in Asia

With Japan observing a public holiday, Asian markets saw subdued activity. On the currency front, the euro showed little reaction to Fitch's recent downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating.

Euro holds steady

The single currency started the week with little movement, trading at 1.1732 dollars, just below its recent peak of 1.1780. The US dollar slipped 0.15 percent against the yen to 147.44, staying within the month-long range of 146.22 to 149.13.

Support from the ECB

The euro found stability in firm policy signals from the European Central Bank. Last week, the ECB emphasized that its current stance is well positioned. Investors are now awaiting remarks from several ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde, scheduled later this week.

Nikkei closed, futures active

Japan's Nikkei index remained shut on Monday due to a public holiday, though futures traded around 44,520 points, slightly below the last close of 44,768. The index had advanced more than 4 percent over the past week.

Asia's resilience continues

The MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan held steady in the latest session, although earlier it touched a fresh four-year high.

Gains in Seoul and Beijing

In South Korea, the Kospi rose 0.4 percent, setting another record high after the government scrapped plans to raise taxes on stock investments.Chinese markets also showed strong momentum: the CSI300 gained 0.5 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.2 percent. Investor appetite for Chinese tech stocks grew as hopes rose over progress in trade talks between Beijing and Washington.

Talks in Madrid move forward

On Sunday evening, US and Chinese officials wrapped up the first day of trade discussions in Madrid, with negotiations set to resume later on Monday. President Donald Trump commented that the timing of a potential sale of the Chinese short-video platform TikTok is still under review, and no final decision has been made.

China's economy shows signs of slowing

Fresh economic figures released Monday reveal that China's growth momentum weakened in August. Industrial output, retail sales and other activity indicators fell short of expectations.The property sector remains under pressure, with real estate investment continuing to decline. Housing prices dropped by another 0.3 percent last month, extending the downward trend that has persisted since the start of 2023.

Oil edges up, gold steady near highs

Commodities saw moderate gains at the start of the week. Brent crude rose 0.5 percent to 67.33 dollars a barrel, while US crude climbed by the same margin to around 63 dollars.

Gold prices held firm at 3644 dollars per ounce, staying close to last week's record high of 3673.95 dollars.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump expects bigger moves from the Fed

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The U.S. dollar may face significant turbulence this week. President Donald Trump recently stated in an interview that he expects the Federal Reserve to deliver a larger rate cut this week. Pressure from the White House comes ahead of a pivotal meeting where central bank officials are expected to ease policy for the first time in nine months.

"I think it's time to act big," Trump told reporters on Sunday. "The time has come for the next step."

Beyond Trump's remarks, markets have already priced in the likelihood of a 25-basis-point cut, while some analysts do not rule out a more aggressive move. Federal funds futures indicate growing confidence in easing, which is putting downward pressure on the dollar against other major currencies. However, the Fed is likely to emphasize its independence from political pressure and may act more cautiously than the president desires.

The dollar's reaction will also depend on the accompanying comments following the rate decision. If the Fed sends a clear signal of readiness for further easing, the dollar could decline more quickly. On the other hand, if the central bank stresses that the current rate cut is a one-off measure and not the start of a cycle, the dollar may receive temporary support.

The Fed is expected to cut rates on September 17, in the context of a slowing labor market, persistent inflation, and Trump's unprecedented push to lower borrowing costs. The consensus forecast among economists is for a 25-basis-point reduction.

It should be noted that Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell for months to cut rates and has repeatedly called for his resignation. Recent weak economic reports have fueled concerns that the labor market could slide into an even deeper slowdown, threatening consumer spending and economic growth. At the same time, inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and could rise further if tariff policies increase costs, prompting some officials to worry about acting too hastily.

Tensions between the White House and the Fed have reached a peak amid slowing economic growth and growing concerns over trade wars. Trump has repeatedly claimed that high interest rates restrain growth and that rate cuts are necessary for the U.S. to compete globally. Powell has consistently stressed the Fed's independence, stating that rate decisions are based on economic data, not political pressure. He has also noted that cutting rates while the labor market is strong and unemployment low could fuel inflation and destabilize the economy. In this context, markets remain highly sensitive to any hints of a possible Fed policy shift.

It should also be noted that Powell's term expires in May 2026, and Trump is now considering his successor. The president has publicly named White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the three main candidates.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD: buyers now need to secure the 1.1745 level. Only then will a test of 1.1780 be possible. From there, the pair could reach 1.1813, though doing so without support from large players will be difficult. The ultimate target is 1.1866. In the event of a decline, I expect strong buying interest around 1.1700. If none emerges, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1665 low or consider long positions from 1.1630.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD: pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3590. Only then will a move toward 1.3615 be possible, though breaking higher will be difficult. The ultimate target is 1.3645. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3525. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3495, with the potential to extend to 1.3458.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The U.S. dollar continues to face problems

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The U.S. dollar continues to face problems, and the key question remains: how much more will it lose before the Federal Reserve meeting, and how much after.

The main issue for investors this week is whether Fed officials will push back against market expectations of a series of rate cuts, which many economists believe could last into next year. Clearly, the Fed's decision on Wednesday will set the tone for global markets, including currencies, but it is not the only important event on the calendar. The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are also set to announce their monetary policy decisions.

The spotlight will undoubtedly be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, where he is expected to comment on the latest inflation and employment data and hint at the future policy trajectory. Markets are watching closely for signals on when rate cuts might begin and how quickly they will proceed. Any divergence between market expectations and Fed guidance could lead to significant volatility.

The recent slowdown in disinflation places the Fed in a difficult position: on one hand, maintaining tight monetary policy risks a recession, while on the other, easing too soon could spark a new wave of inflation. Powell's speech will be key to outlining the Fed's strategy. Investors expect him to reaffirm the regulator's readiness to cut rates further this year, but the question is how many cuts will be scheduled. At the same time, it will be important for Powell to avoid ambiguity in his statements so as not to fuel market uncertainty.

Special attention will be paid to his comments on the employment outlook. If Powell voices concern about job losses—at a time when the labor market is experiencing its worst downturn since the pandemic—it could be seen as a signal that the Fed is prepared to accelerate rate cuts. Conversely, if he emphasizes labor market resilience and frames current problems as temporary, it may indicate the Fed intends to keep policy tight for longer than markets expect.

Decisions by other major central banks will also be important. The Bank of Canada, given its similar economic dynamics to the U.S., may be pressured to follow the Fed's path. As for the Bank of Japan, its wait-and-see stance and yield curve control continue to preoccupy investors. Any signs of readiness to raise rates further could have significant consequences for global markets, given Japan's role as a major creditor.

Overall, the week promises to be eventful and filled with uncertainty, as global central banks attempt to navigate complex economic conditions.

Technical outlook for EUR/USD: buyers now need to secure control over 1.1745. Only then will a test of 1.1780 become possible. From there, the pair could move up to 1.1813, though doing so without support from large players will be challenging. The ultimate target stands at 1.1866. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying interest to appear near 1.1700. If none emerges, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of 1.1665 or consider long positions from 1.1630.

Technical outlook for GBP/USD: pound buyers need to break above immediate resistance at 1.3590. Only then will they be able to target 1.3615, though breaking higher will be difficult. The ultimate target lies at 1.3645. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3525. If successful, a breakout of this range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3495, with prospects of extending to 1.3458.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on September 15

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Demand for Bitcoin remains at a reasonably high level. Given that the weekend passed with no major corrections and that we have a Fed meeting and potential rate cuts ahead this week, the stage is set for further crypto market recovery and new local highs.

Data from CryptoQuat support this theory. According to their report, whales continue to buy ETH and BTC actively. In fact, wallet balances holding 10,000-100,000 ETH have hit a record high. CryptoQuat notes that ETH is currently in one of its strongest cycles: institutional demand, staking, and on-chain activity are all approaching historic highs.

The growth in whale balances—especially among those holding large amounts of Ethereum and BTC—indicates strong confidence in the long-term prospects of these assets. Institutional interest, backed by ETH staking opportunities, provides a steady inflow of capital and reduces volatility. Network activity, encompassing both DeFi and NFT segments, highlights Ethereum's utility and ongoing demand.

However, even the most positive signals do not guarantee a smooth future. The crypto market remains susceptible to regulatory changes, macroeconomic factors, and sudden technological breakthroughs. While the CryptoQuat data strengthens the bullish outlook, pointing to large player consolidation and robust market growth, prudent skepticism and continuous market monitoring remain essential to protect against risks and maximize gains.

For intraday crypto trading, I'll continue to look for major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum as opportunities for bullish medium-term plays, as the bull trend remains intact. Short-term trading strategies and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Plan to buy Bitcoin today at an entry point around $116,800, targeting a rise to $117,800. Around $117,800, I'll exit longs and sell on the bounce. Before entering a breakout long, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $116,100 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown, aiming for a reversal back up to $116,800 and $117,800.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: Plan to sell Bitcoin at $116,100, targeting a fall to $114,900. Exit shorts and buy on the bounce at $114,900. Before a breakout short, confirm the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $116,800 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a move back down to $116,100 and $114,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: Plan to buy Ethereum today at an entry around $4,680, targeting a rise to $4,745. I'll exit longs and sell on the bounce at $4,745. Before a breakout long, confirm the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $4,636 if there's no market reaction to a breakdown, targeting reversals back up to $4,680 and $4,745.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: Plan to sell Ethereum at $4,636, targeting a drop to $4,582. Exit shorts and buy on the bounce at $4,582. Before a breakout short, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $4,680 if there's no follow-through on a breakout, targeting a reversal back down to $4,636 and $4,582.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 15. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.06 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar, and this decision proved correct as the pair failed to continue rising.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after last Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.4 points, versus economists' forecast for an increase to 58. This unexpected slump in American consumer sentiment reinforced the market's belief in the need for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. The dollar, which had previously been supported by high rates, came under pressure as investors began doubting the strength of the US economy. The yen, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gained support in this environment of uncertainty.

Future pair dynamics will depend on upcoming US economic data, Fed policy decisions, and actions by the Bank of Japan. Investors should closely monitor these factors to make informed decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point around 147.54 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 147.91 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 147.91, I plan to exit from longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip counter move from the level). The best opportunities to buy the pair will be on corrections and notable dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.35 level with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 147.54 and 147.91 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a move below 147.35 (red line on the chart), which should quickly push the pair lower. The key sellers' target will be 147.05, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip counter move). It's better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to drop from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.54 level with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Declines to the opposite levels of 147.35 and 147.05 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 15. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3528 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

The British pound rose against the dollar after last Friday's data showed a decline in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The unexpected drop in the index weakened the dollar and provided a boost for the pound. Markets reacted immediately, as investors revised their expectations towards a more dovish Federal Reserve policy.

No major fundamental data are expected from the UK today, which is likely positive for the pound. The absence of macroeconomic releases from the United Kingdom allows the market to focus on other factors influencing the pair's dynamics. This, in turn, reduces the likelihood of sharp fluctuations caused by unexpected data. With the prevailing upward trend, a neutral news background may support further strengthening of the pound, as speculative positions aimed at growth remain a priority.

Market participants are likely to focus on news from the US and global trends influencing risk appetite. Any negative signals from the US economy or increasing geopolitical tensions could increase the pound's attractiveness.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point at around 1.3573 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for growth to 1.3608 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3608, I plan to exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip retracement from the level). Strong growth in the pound can be expected if the uptrend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3557 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and cause a reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.3573 and 1.3608 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below 1.3557 (red line on the chart), which should quickly send the pair lower. The main seller's target will be 1.3526, where I'll exit shorts and consider immediately opening longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip retracement from the level). Pound sellers could become active at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3573 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This limits the pair's upside potential and triggers a reversal down. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3557 and 1.3526 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on September 15. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Review and Advice on Trading the Euro

The first test of the 1.1712 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of this price occurred when the MACD entered the oversold area, enabling the implementation of buy scenario #2 and resulting in a 20-pip rise for the pair.

Last Friday, the US dollar came under pressure due to an unexpected drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This indicator, which reflects the public's outlook on economic conditions, fell to a level of 55 (versus a forecasted rise to 58), sparking concerns about a possible reduction in future consumer spending. This weighed on the dollar's position. Despite the temporary weakness, the long-term outlook for this indicator remains positive, and the dollar's dynamics in the coming days will be determined by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

Today, only the eurozone trade balance and the Bundesbank's monthly report are due on the macro calendar. Even weak data are unlikely to trigger a major euro sell-off. Later, ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks will be in focus. If the trade balance figures show further deterioration, this may intensify concerns about the competitiveness of the European economy and its resilience to external shocks—especially following the US introduction of trade tariffs. Particular attention will be paid to energy import dynamics, which have been a significant drag on the eurozone's trade balance. The Bundesbank's monthly report, in turn, will provide a more detailed review of the German economy, the key growth engine for the whole region. Comments from the Bundesbank on inflation, interest rates, and economic prospects can influence short-term euro fluctuations, but are unlikely to bring about significant shifts in market sentiment.

The main event of the day will undoubtedly be Christine Lagarde's speech. Investors will carefully watch her comments for signals regarding the ECB's further policy strategy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I will consider buying the euro around the 1.1738 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1772. At 1.1772, I plan to exit longs and possibly sell the euro in the opposite direction for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro upside should only be expected after strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1722 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal upwards. Growth can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1738 and 1.1772.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1722 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1691, at which I will exit shorts and consider buying immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Downside pressure on the pair should return on weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1738 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and prompt a reversal downwards. Declines can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.1722 and 1.1691.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.

Thick green line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.

Thick red line – suggested price for taking profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator: When entering the market, it is important to refer to overbought and oversold areas.

Important. Beginner forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. Before important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during the release of news, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes. And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, as I described above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation from moment to moment is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on September 15

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During the day, the US dollar ceded ground to the euro, the pound, and other risk assets at the end of last week. However, this did not lead to a major shift in the balance of power in the market.

A sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index weakened the US dollar. The index, which tracks consumer expectations regarding the economy, fell to 55 points. This raised concerns about a potential decrease in consumer spending in the future, putting pressure on the dollar. Lower consumer confidence also heightened fears of a possible slowdown in US economic growth. Consumer spending is a key driver of the American economy, and its decline could negatively impact GDP.

Today, the only notable data expected are the eurozone trade balance figures and the Bundesbank's monthly report. Later in the evening, ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak, but she is unlikely to touch on monetary policy topics.

Typically, the Bundesbank's monthly report provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of the German economy, which is the engine of the entire eurozone. Traders will scrutinize comments on inflation, economic growth prospects, and the impact of external factors such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Special attention will be paid to the section on the state of the industrial sector and its outlook during the trade crisis, as this can give an idea of the future for the broader economy.

Lagarde's speech will also attract attention. Investors are eager to hear clear signals from the ECB chief about future monetary policy, although, in my opinion, everything necessary was already said last week, so we're unlikely to hear anything new.

If the data matches economists' expectations, it's best to act based on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data comes in much higher or lower than anticipated, the best option is a Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

EUR/USD

• Buying a breakout above 1.1745 could lead to euro gains toward 1.1778 and 1.1813
• Selling on a break below 1.1710 could send the euro down to 1.1690 and 1.1660

GBP/USD

• Buying a breakout above 1.3575 could push the pound toward 1.3600 and 1.3620
• Selling on a break below 1.3555 could send the pound down to 1.3525 and 1.3495

USD/JPY

• Buying a breakout above 147.55 could drive the dollar up to 147.84 and 148.13
• Selling on a break below 147.30 could trigger a sell-off of the dollar to 146.95 and 146.60

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks):

EUR/USD

• Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1744 if the price returns below this level
• Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1719 if the price returns above this level

GBP/USD

• Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3575 if the price falls back below this level
• Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3542 if the price climbs back above this level

AUD/USD

• Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6674 if the price returns below this level
• Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6642 if the price returns above this level

USD/CAD

• Look to sell after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3850 if the price falls back below this level
• Look to buy after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3827 if the price climbs back above this level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Although There Is Potential for a Retrace, USDX Is More Likely to Weaken Today. Monday, 15 September 2025.

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[USDX] – [Monday, 15 September 2025]

Today, USDX has a potential to weaken due to a Death Cross between the EMA(50) and EMA(200), and the RSI being in the Neutral-Bearish area.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 98.00

2. Resistance. 1 : 97.79

3. Pivot : 97.63

4. Support. 1 : 97.42

5. Support. 2 : 97.26

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 97.42, there is potential for continued weakening towards 97.26.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 97.26 is broken and closed below, the next level to be tested could be 97.05.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens, breaks, and closes above 98.00

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 97.62

EMA(200): 97.68

RSI(14) : 39.41

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today, there is only one economic data release from the United States: the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crude Oil Has the Potential to Weaken Today. Monday, 15 September 2025.

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[Crude Oil] – [Monday, 15 September 2025]

Although the RSI is in the Neutral-Bullish area, the position of the EMA(50) being below the EMA(200) could lead to weakness today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 65.00

2. Resistance. 1 : 63.80

3. Pivot : 62.74

4. Support. 1 : 61.54

5. Support. 2 : 60.48

Tactical Scenario

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 61.54, #CL could move lower towards 60.48.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 60.48 is broken and closed below, there is potential to test the 59.28 level.

Invalidation Level Invalidation / Bias Revision

The downside bias is restrained if #CL strengthens, breaks, and closes above 65.00.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 62.78

EMA(200): 62.90

RSI(14) : 59.70

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today, there is only one economic data release from the United States: the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 19:30 WIB.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on September 15? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday—not in Germany, the UK, the EU, or the US. Recall that during the first two weeks of September, traders had a fairly rich flow of macroeconomic data at their disposal. Almost all of them showed that the US economy continues to deteriorate. Only GDP is rising, and that's artificially. How much longer it will keep growing on the back of Trump's trade war is unknown. In any case, market participants have a low opinion of the results delivered by the new US administration.

Fundamental Events Analysis:

The only fundamental event on Monday is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, it's worth noting that the latest ECB meeting took place just this Thursday. No important decisions were made. The central bank hinted that the next key rate cut may not happen soon, as there are no reasons for it now. The central bank remains concerned about accelerating inflation due to the trade war, but it does not anticipate significant inflationary pressures in the medium term. There are no reasons to lower rates, since inflation remains around 2% and the risks are to the upside. The ECB will only resume monetary policy easing if inflation starts to slow below 2%.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may resume upward movement, but new buy signals are needed for this. For the euro, if it breaks through the 1.1737–1.1745 area, growth toward the 1.1808 target will continue. A bounce from 1.1737–1.1745 would allow considering shorts, but without a substantial decline. For the pound sterling, a bounce from 1.3529–1.3543 or a break above 1.3574–1.3590 would allow the opening of long positions, while consolidation below 1.3529–1.3543 would allow for shorts. In both cases, long positions are preferable. Monday may turn out to be quite a boring day with flat movement and low volatility.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on September 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Friday Trade Review:

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair also showed absolutely no interesting movement. Throughout the day, the pair was stuck between two areas: 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590. On the hourly timeframe, an upward trend persists, but at this point, it's not possible to draw a local ascending trendline, and the market is in no hurry to develop the uptrend. The British pound remains very close to its highs of the past several years, and there are plenty of reasons for the US dollar to fall. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, we have observed low volatility, which is the main reason for the lack of solid trending movement. On Friday, relatively important reports were published in the UK, but they attracted no one's interest. July GDP remained unchanged, while industrial production decreased by 0.9%. These data could have prompted a decline in the British pound, but the market preferred not to react at all. The US consumer sentiment report could have triggered a drop in the dollar, and it did—by about 20 pips. The whole day was a sideways movement.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, four buy signals formed on Friday in the same 1.3529–1.3543 area. In each instance, the pair advanced 15–25 pips upward. Thus, it was extremely difficult to profit from any of these trades. Only in the first case did the price manage to reach the nearest target level of 1.3574, which was just 30 pips away. Flat is flat.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair shows signs of a renewed uptrend, and on higher timeframes, the upward trend remains. As we have said before, we see no grounds for the US dollar to grow in the medium term, so we expect further gains for the British currency.

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair may try to continue moving north. However, at this time, it remains squeezed between the 1.3529–1.3543 and 1.3574–1.3590 areas, with market volatility quite low. There will be no important events on Monday, so volatility may again be very weak.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can now trade around the following levels: 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3203–1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329–1.3331, 1.3413–1.3421, 1.3466–1.3475, 1.3529–1.3543, 1.3574–1.3590, 1.3643–1.3652, 1.3682, 1.3763. On Monday, there are no interesting events or reports scheduled in either the UK or the US. Thus, traders will have little to react to during the day, and the pair's movements may again leave much to be desired.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on September 15? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Friday Trade Review:

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair showed absolutely no interesting movements on Friday. Only two reports throughout the day could have theoretically attracted traders' attention. In the morning, Germany released the second estimate of the consumer price index for August. Unsurprisingly, the second estimate matched the first, prompting no market reaction. In the second half of the day, the US Consumer Sentiment Index was released, which declined noticeably compared to August, from 58.2 points to 55.4 points. This report could have triggered a drop in the dollar, but it didn't. The day's total volatility was 45 pips, which eloquently speaks to traders' current willingness to participate in the market. Recall that low volatility has now been observed for about a month. It can't be said that there were no movements during this period, but in most cases, they were extremely weak. Currently, the uptrend remains on the hourly timeframe, as indicated by the trendline, but the dollar, despite having reasons, is in no hurry to keep falling.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute TF on Friday, two sell signals were formed, both bounces from the 1.1737-1.1745 area. Due to very low volatility, the target level of 1.1666 was not reached and did not even stand a chance of being fulfilled. Deals could only be closed at a profit manually. For both trades, you could have set the Stop Loss to breakeven to avoid any possible losses.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has every chance to resume the uptrend that has been forming since the start of this year. Both the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds remain bad for the US dollar, so we still do not expect a strengthening of the American currency. In our view, as before, the US currency can only count on technical corrections. However, a consolidation below the trendline could trigger a new wave of technical declines in the pair.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair may continue a weak northward movement, as the trend remains upward. However, for new long positions, the 1.1737-1.1745 area must be overcome. The target is 1.1808.

On the 5-minute TF, consider the following levels: 1.1198-1.1218, 1.1267-1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1737-1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908. On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the Eurozone, but we do not expect any significant statements from the head of the central bank. The ECB met just a couple of days ago, and Lagarde has already provided all the necessary information to the markets. Most likely, we are in for another "boring Monday."

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.