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Bitcoin: minus 30%. What lies behind BTC crash in November 2025?

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Has the time for a breather and correction arrived?

After an impressive rally, Bitcoin closes out November 2025 on a more restrained and cautious note. Just last October, it reached an all-time high of over $126,000, while today it trades in the $92,000–95,000 range. This represents a fall of approximately 30% from its peak in just a few weeks.

In tandem, the cryptocurrency market has evaporated over $1 trillion in capitalization. Essentially, the market has erased nearly all its gains for the year in one swift move, pushing Bitcoin down to a six-month low and negating its annual returns.

This is no longer merely a "healthy correction." It represents a full reassessment of expectations, a nervous breakdown, and a test of endurance for everyone who considered Bitcoin to be the new gold and an eternal winner.

Market sentiment: frightening, painful, but not for everyone

Current market quotes do frighten crypto investors, but the broader context is even more critical. Sentiments are at an all-time low.

The Bitcoin "fear and greed" index has plummeted to around 15 points — a zone of extreme fear. The market has psychologically broken down: just a month ago, discussions were centered around new targets above $130,000–140,000, and now the main topic is how to avoid further drops of tens of percent.

Money confirms this trend. In the past month, spot products and Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of about $2.3 billion — nearly a record monthly result. Some of the larger players are simply exiting their positions or cutting back, locking in profits and reducing risk.

However, the picture isn't black and white. Short-term and more nervous investors are indeed leaving. But long-term institutional participants, judging by the data, are not fleeing en masse. They are more likely to be hitting the pause button rather than initiating a sell-off: there are no mass forced exits visible, and positions in large portfolios are generally being maintained. For them, this is an unpleasant but workable correction in the context of a long-term idea.

Another important point is how the market's perception of Bitcoin has changed. More analysts are openly stating that, based on its behavior, Bitcoin is becoming less like digital gold and more akin to a high-risk tech stock. The correlation with the technology sector, especially companies related to artificial intelligence, is strengthening. When the AI hype cools off or bond yields rise, Bitcoin also feels the pressure. In other words, it is becoming less of a pure safe haven and increasingly moving in rhythm with risk assets.

Technical signals: clearly bearish indicators

The charts have revealed a classic "death cross," where the average price over the last 50 days falls below the 200-day average. This is a straightforward but widely used signal, traditionally interpreted as an indication of a prolonged bearish trend rather than a short pullback.

Key support levels that once held the market and served as a foundation for new growth impulses have broken downward. This has intensified selling: many algorithms and systematic traders operate based on such levels. As a result, the pace of decline has accelerated, and the news backdrop has only added fuel to the fire.

Paradoxically, long-term forecasts on the future horizon from some experts have barely changed. Medium-term models still feature levels of $110,000–115,000 and above, while some scenarios for the next few years project even higher estimates. The logic is straightforward: the halving effect is ahead, Bitcoin's deep integration through ETFs, softer regulation in the US, and increasing interest from corporations and government entities. But all these arguments apply to time horizons of years, not weeks or months.

Currently, the market is operating in a different mode: overload, fear, and a desire to weather the storm.

2025: from euphoria to nervous phase

To understand where we are now, it is important to recall how 2025 unfolded for Bitcoin. It was a year characterized by strong political and regulatory triggers.

At the beginning of the year, the new US administration took several bold steps. A Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was announced, along with a separate stockpile of digital assets, and leaders of the crypto industry were invited to the White House to discuss the rules of the game. The market interpreted this as a signal of legitimization. With such political support, Bitcoin maintained a strong position in high ranges, albeit with volatility.

Simultaneously, tough tariff policies, trade conflicts, and growing global instability were putting pressure on traditional markets, yet Bitcoin looked like an alternative in this context. In May, it confidently broke the $110,000 level for the first time, and over the summer, it set a new record above $123,000, eventually hitting an all-time high around $126,173 in October.

Several drivers contributed to this. A mass institutional influx began through ETFs, with major corporations and funds announcing billion-dollar purchases. Large private companies publicized multi-billion dollar plans to invest in BTC, with several entities from Japan and the US formally adopting "Bitcoin on the balance sheet" strategies. This created a sense that "the train had already left the station," prompting new players to enter at increasingly higher prices.

Moreover, the regulatory environment appeared favorable: the US was discussing laws aimed at providing clearer rules for the crypto market, and new appointments to key posts in regulatory bodies were seen as steps toward a more friendly policy.

However, the situation changed sharply in the fall. First, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points, which sparked short-term optimism: cheap money is a boon for risk assets. But the subsequent rhetoric from the central bank was cautious, with no hints of a swift cycle of cuts. The market began to oscillate violently: every signal triggered spikes, while every cautious comment led to pullbacks.

Then came another blow — 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, a new wave of trade war, and the largest cascade of liquidations on crypto exchanges in a long time. In a single day, positions for approximately 1.6 million traders were liquidated, totaling over $19 billion. This was a telling moment: there were too many leverages and overheated positions, and the market experienced an immediate crash among margin players.

By November, another factor emerged — a record monthly outflow from Bitcoin ETFs exceeding $2.33 billion, symbolizing a shift in sentiment among some large investors. Concurrently, discussions about budget issues in the US, a potential new government shutdown, and political chaos intensified. All this made risk assets, including Bitcoin, less attractive.

Where Bitcoin stands now and what it means

As of November 20, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $92,000–94,000. This is about a third lower than its all-time high and close to the lows of the past six months.

The market is clearly scared; significant technical levels have been breached, sentiment indices are in the red zone, and outflows from ETFs indicate that some smart money has shifted to cash or moved to other segments.

However, it is crucial to understand that Bitcoin does not appear to be a "dead" asset. It has not disappeared from the radar of major players. On the contrary, by 2025, it has firmly established itself as a part of the larger financial system: a strategic reserve is emerging at the state level, corporations are integrating BTC into their strategies, and legislators are discussing relevant acts.

The market is currently experiencing a phase of intense recalibration of expectations. After a year in which crypto seemed invincible, it has had to confront reality: political risk, regulatory swings, a high proportion of leveraged positions, and dependency on global rates and sentiments in the stock market.

The current picture of Bitcoin: a clash of two narratives The first narrative describes a nervous present: a drop of nearly 30%, a trillion-dollar capital loss, fear, outflows, a "death cross," and a sense that the market is fatigued from the rally. The second narrative is a long-term story: halving, institutionalization, political recognition, and Bitcoin's incorporation into the strategies of governments and corporations.

In the short term, fear is prevailing. In the long run, if infrastructure and institutional interest continue to develop, Bitcoin stands a chance of returning to growth.

But the main takeaway for investors now is simple: Bitcoin is no longer seen as a "risk-free fairy tale." It is a mature, volatile asset tied to politics and macroeconomics, capable of delivering records — and just as swiftly taking them back. It should be viewed not as a mythical "digital dream" but as a fully-fledged, albeit very nervous, element of a portfolio that is undergoing one of the most significant tests it has faced in recent years.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for November 20-23, 2025: buy above $4,065 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading at $4,077, rebounding after reaching key support around $4,040. This level coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, plotted from the low of $3,996.

Gold will likely continue its rise in the coming hours until it reaches $4,117. The instrument could even return to the 7/8 Murray located at $4,218.

Today, the labor market report from the United States will be released, which could generate strong volatility in gold, so we must be very attentive to the development of the technical movement. Above $4,062, where 6/8 Murray is located, we could take long positions, with targets at $4,150 and $4,172.

On the contrary, if there is consolidation below $4,065, we could expect gold to reach the 200 EMA around $4,023 or it could even find strong support around the bottom of the uptrend channel located at $4,010.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for November 20-23, 2025: buy above $90,000 (21 SMA - -2/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $91,750, rebounding after reaching a low of $88,000 near the important -2/8 Murray support level.

Bitcoin could consolidate around $91,000 or $90,000, which could set the stage for a strong technical rebound during which BTC could reach $97,000 in the coming days and even the psychological level of $100,000.

On the contrary, if Bitcoin falls towards the support level of $87,500, this support could give BTC a strong technical rebound, and we could look for opportunities to open long positions with targets at $93,750 and finally at $100,000.

The Eagle indicator shows that Bitcoin is oversold, so we will look for opportunities to buy whenever the price makes a technical correction.

A decisive breakout of the downtrend channel and consolidation above $93,750 could be a clear signal to open long positions in the short term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 20-23, 2025: buy above 1.1474 (200 EMA - 6/8 Murray)

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The euro is trading around 1.1513 below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA with a bearish bias. EUR/USD could continue its fall in the coming hours to reach 6/8 Murray around 1.1474.

The euro could find good support around 1.1500. This level could give it a chance for a technical rebound, and we could expect EUR/USD to reach 1.1567, 1.1601, or even the top of the downtrend channel around 1.1620.

If the euro reaches the 6/8 Murray support, this level could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions and would give us the opportunity to buy with medium-term targets around 1.1740, where the price left a gap in October.

If the bearish force prevails, we expect the euro to find good support around 1.1420. This level is key, which signals a technical rebound.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crypto market: time for breather and correction?

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Bitcoin has rebounded to $92,000, while Ethereum has managed to hold above $3,000. This has occurred against the backdrop of news that US exchange-traded Bitcoin ETF funds returned to a net inflow of funds on Wednesday, ending a five-day streak of outflows.

According to data from SoSoValue, Bitcoin funds reported a net inflow of $75.47 million yesterday, of which $60.61 million went to the IBIT BlackRock fund, and $53.84 million to the Grayscale Mini Bitcoin Trust. The inflow into IBIT followed a record net outflow of $523 million on Tuesday, marking the largest daily outflow since its launch.

This positive signal has breathed new life into the crypto market following a period of relative weakness, sparked by concerns about tightening monetary policy and the significant overvaluation of the market amid an AI bubble. The resumption of inflows into Bitcoin ETF funds indicates the first signs of a recovery in investor confidence toward the leading cryptocurrency.

However, it is essential to remember that the chances of a new wave of BTC sell-offs are currently much higher than those of a rise back to the $100,000 level. Maintaining vigilance and making well-rounded decisions based on a careful analysis of the current situation is crucial.

The report also mentioned that yesterday's net inflow was partially offset by two funds that reported net outflows. FBTC Fidelity experienced an outflow of $21.35 million, while HODL VanEck lost $17.63 million.

The five-day net outflow of funds from November 12 to 18 resulted in more than $2.26 billion exiting Bitcoin ETFs. This negative outflow coincided with an active downturn in the cryptocurrency market.

Meanwhile, the net outflow from Ethereum spot ETFs has continued for the seventh day, with $37.35 million leaving the funds.

Trading recommendations

As for the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the level of $92,900, which opens a direct path to $95,900, and from there, it's just a short distance to $99,400. The furthest target will be the peak around $102,400; overcoming this level would signify attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the level of $89,200. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly drop BTC to around $86,500. The furthest target will be the area of $83,900.

Regarding the technical picture for Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the level of $3,068 opens a direct path to $3,193. The furthest target will be the peak around $3,317; breaching this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiment and renewed interest from buyers. In the event of a decline in Ethereum, I expect buyers at the level of $2,924. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly drop ETH to around $2,797. The furthest target will be the area of $2,662.

Chart indicators

• Red indicators represent support and resistance levels, where a slowdown or active price increase is expected.
• Green represents the 50-day moving average.
• Blue indicates the 100-day moving average.
• Light green signifies the 200-day moving average.

Crossovers or tests of the moving averages usually halt or set the market's momentum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US dollar: FOMC minutes and NFPs

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As indicated by the minutes released from the Federal Reserve's October meeting on Wednesday, many policymakers expressed concerns that lowering interest rates could increase the likelihood of issues related to price stability, raising the risks of higher inflation levels. Nevertheless, some officials acknowledged that small steps toward reducing the funds rate by the end of the year might be justified, considering the overall economic backdrop. A significant share of voting members rejected the idea of additional easing in December. They insisted on maintaining the current monetary policy until clearer signals about the labor market and inflation rates emerge.

This division in opinions highlights the complexity of choosing the agenda at this stage. The decision to keep interest rates unchanged or to go ahead with policy easing depends on numerous factors, including inflation metrics, unemployment levels, and overall economic conditions. The consequences of premature or insufficient policy moves can affect the future trajectory of the US economy and global markets.

According to monitoring tools, such as the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in December decreased significantly after the minutes were released, dropping to 30%. Previously, the chances were estimated at 50%, and just a week ago, they reached 65%. This sharp decline indicates that investors perceive the Fed's signals as signs of maintaining caution and a readiness to avoid radical easing in the near term.

Following the publication of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and in anticipation of the upcoming US labor market data (scheduled for 13:30 GMT), the UDS dollar is trading steadily. The US dollar index (USDX), which reflects the dollar's performance against a basket of six major currencies, shows a solid recovery following recent fluctuations.

Over the past month, the USDX has demonstrated slight growth, reaching 100.29 today, increasing by approximately 0.53%. Today marks the fifth consecutive day of growth for the USDX.

Bullish factors for US dollar:

• The outcome of the Fed meeting: The latest policy decisions confirmed a cautious approach amid uncertainty in financial markets.
• Employment data, including the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report, recorded an increase of 42,000 jobs in the US private sector in October, exceeding analysts' modest forecasts (25,000).
• The ISM Services PMI index rose to 52.4 in October, despite a decline in the manufacturing sector.

These factors indicate sustained economic growth and support from the US central bank, encouraging the advance of the national currency.

Forecasts and prospects

Despite positive trends, the market braces for the report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, scheduled for today. Economists anticipate that the number of new jobs in the non-farm sector will rise by approximately 50,000 in October, compared to 22,000 in the previous month. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year. However, it is important to note that some uncertainty lingers regarding the potential influence of the corporate sector on the overall employment landscape.

An additional risk factor is inflation. Despite a slowdown in certain segments, the Federal Reserve remains sensitive to any signs of worsening inflationary pressure. Most Committee members believe that any further rate cuts should take into account the balance of risks regarding rising inflation and cooling labor market conditions.

Possible scenarios:

• Moderately positive scenario: An increase in job numbers and stable unemployment levels may reduce pressure on the US dollar, allowing the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged.
• Negative scenario: A sharp decline in employment figures or a noticeable rise in inflation may force the Fed to lower interest rates, exerting pressure on the US dollar.

Technical picture At the time of publishing this article, the USDX was near its weekly and five-day high of 100.27, in proximity to a key resistance level at 100.36 (the 50-period moving average on the weekly chart).

The bullish momentum persists, supported by diminishing expectations of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December.

For a decisive breakthrough into a medium-term bull market, the dollar index must settle above key levels of 99.96 (the 200-period moving average on the daily chart) and 100.00. A break above 100.36 (the 50-period moving average on the weekly chart) would confirm a shift into a medium-term bullish market and open up the prospect for growth toward key long-term resistance levels of 101.45 (the 200-period moving average on the weekly chart) and 101.75 (the 144-period moving average on the weekly chart).

In the alternative scenario, a break below the key support level of 99.96 could signal a resumption of price declines. A breach of the support level at 98.95 (the 50-period moving average and the lower line of the ascending channel on the daily chart) could enable the instrument to return to the medium-term and long-term bearish markets.

Conclusion Thus, the dynamics of the US dollar depend on a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic situation and the decisions made by the Federal Reserve. Careful monitoring of key indicators such as employment and inflation will be a decisive factor for the greenback's future movements.

To sum up, the market sentiment on the US dollar remains quite stable; however, potential changes in the economy and the Fed's policies could bring significant adjustments to this trend. It is essential to keep an eye on economic data and signals from the Federal Open Market Committee to respond promptly to possible changes in market dynamics.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for November 20

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq close with gains

The stock markets closed higher, bolstered by a strong quarterly report from Nvidia, whose shares surged by 5%. The company's confident forecast eased concerns about a potential bubble in the AI sector, providing support to the stocks of other AI companies, including Alphabet, whose shares also showed growth. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices increased by 0.38% and 0.59%, respectively, with futures showing even more pronounced gains.

Positive dynamics were also reflected in Asian markets, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 2.5% and the South Korean Kospi up by 2.9%. Bitcoin rose to $92,000. Meanwhile, investors are cautiously assessing the prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and awaiting the upcoming jobs report, which could influence future market directions. Follow the link for more details.

Fed minutes reveal Committee's plan to hold interest rates steady until year-end

At the October meeting of the Federal Reserve, the leadership's opinions were divided: some feared that lowering rates could exacerbate inflationary pressures, while others considered the possibility of a gradual reduction closer to year-end. An increasing number of members advocate caution and maintaining the current policy until clearer data on the labor market and inflation is available.

After the release of the minutes, the probability of a rate cut in December plummeted from 65% to 30%, according to CME Group's FedWatch data. This indicates that investors view the Fed's stance as restrained and poised to avoid hasty actions. Against this backdrop, the dollar strengthened, and the USDX index started to recover from previous fluctuations. Follow the link for more details.

Nvidia confirms Q3 metrics, contributing to S&P 500 recovery

NVIDIA published an impressive quarterly report, halting the four-day decline in the US stock market and pushing the company's shares up by 6.5%. Despite a recent 12% drop from October highs, NVIDIA is showing strong results: its revenue reached $57 billion, and earnings per share stood at $1.3, all exceeding analysts' forecasts.

This financial success has heated discussions about the role of AI in technological development. Optimists believe that such results strengthen faith in the growth of the S&P 500 and the entire tech sector. However, skeptics point to rising costs and uncertainties regarding the effectiveness of investments in AI. Follow the link for more details.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 20th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 157.76 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Ahead of us are figures on U.S. non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and the change in private-sector employment. These indicators, like a finely tuned musical score, can orchestrate sentiment in the financial markets, determining directional movements in currency pairs—especially those involving the U.S. dollar. Changes in non-farm payrolls act as a barometer of economic activity. The unemployment rate serves as an indicator of social stability, signaling potential societal challenges and pressure on public finances. If the data turns sharply negative, the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut rates in December, which would weaken the dollar immediately.

Equally important is the change in average hourly earnings, as this indicator reflects inflation dynamics and directly influences consumer spending. On one hand, rising wages stimulate demand, but on the other, they can provoke an inflationary spiral, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt stricter measures to control prices. Finally, the change in private-sector employment helps assess the role of small and medium-sized businesses in creating new jobs and maintaining economic growth.

Together, these four indicators provide a comprehensive view of the U.S. labor market and offer valuable insight for investment decisions. Given their importance, we can confidently say that today will be a defining day for the financial markets in the near term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point near 157.45 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 157.95 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.95, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). Growth in the pair can be expected as part of the ongoing bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price twice tests the 157.00 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 157.45 and 157.95 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 157.00 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 156.50, where I will exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from that level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price twice tests 157.45 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 157.00 and 156.50 can be expected.

What the chart shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually locking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make market-entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one I outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 20th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3063 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of 1.3063 happened when the MACD was in the overbought area, which triggered scenario No. 2 for selling the pound, but the pair never actually moved into a decline.

In the absence of important U.K. statistics, the pound managed to partially recover its positions. The lack of macroeconomic guidance from the U.K. left traders with little opportunity for fundamental analysis, which increased the speculative nature of the pair's fluctuations. However, the pound's recovery remains fragile and depends largely on upcoming U.S. data.

Ahead of us are figures on U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, and private sector employment. The U.S. labor market has recently shown signs of weakening, and each new report is viewed by market participants as a potential catalyst for changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If job creation exceeds expectations and unemployment declines, this will strengthen the argument for a more hawkish Fed. In that scenario, the dollar will receive a strong upward impulse. However, one should not forget that the market is always capable of surprises—especially after the largest shutdown in U.S. history. If the data disappoints—for example, if job numbers fall far below forecasts or unemployment rises—the dollar may weaken sharply.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.3089 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3118 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3118, I will exit buy positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move from the level). Pound growth today is possible only if the data is weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price twice tests the 1.3068 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3089 and 1.3118 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3068 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3038, where I will exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Pressure on the pound will return if the data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price twice tests 1.3089 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3068 and 1.3038 can be expected.

What the chart shows:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – the approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – the approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely careful when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one I provided above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 20th(U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for the euro

The test of the 1.1527 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

As a result of German economic statistics, the euro received a positive impulse, which allowed the pair to stabilize and even strengthen slightly against the dollar. However, it is too early to speak of a full recovery of the European currency after yesterday's sell-off. Everything will depend on the new data.

In the second half of the day, U.S. labor market data for September will be released. Particular attention will be paid not only to the actual numbers but also to the direction of the changes. Comparing them with previous periods will help determine how serious the consequences of the shutdown were and what direction the Federal Reserve should take next. In addition to unemployment and employment numbers, wage data will be especially important. Rising wages may indicate increasing inflation and push the Fed toward pausing rate hikes in December, which would strengthen the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1539 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.1560. At 1.1560, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. You can count on euro growth today only after weak U.S. labor market data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price twice tests the 1.1521 level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. You can expect growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1539 and 1.1560.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1521 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1495, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20–25 points from this level. Pressure on the pair will return today in the event of strong U.S. statistics.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price twice tests the 1.1539 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1521 and 1.1495 can be expected.

What the chart shows:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you may buy the asset
• Thick green line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, since further growth above this mark is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which you may sell the asset
• Thick red line – approximate level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, since further decline below this mark is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely careful when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one described above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is, from the start, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on November 20, 2025

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar after rebounding from the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1594. After that, the pair fell to the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1517. A rebound from this level today will work in favor of the euro and lead to some growth toward 1.1594. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1517 will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next corrective level of 100.0% at 1.1392.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave, while the last completed downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish at this time. The bulls have launched an offensive, but their efforts are still insufficient to form a trend. To consider the bearish trend completed, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Wednesday, the news background was once again absent, aside from the FOMC minutes, which were published much later than the day's main movement. The tone of the minutes indicated that most FOMC members are inclined to maintain monetary policy parameters unchanged at the December meeting. However, this information is not new for traders. In recent weeks, we have repeatedly heard from Fed officials about their desire to keep the interest rate unchanged amid rising and persistently high inflation in the U.S. Therefore, in my view, yesterday's rise in the U.S. dollar was not linked to the FOMC minutes. Today, important U.S. labor market, unemployment, and wage reports will be released. The direction the dollar moves today will depend on the values shown. Just another 60–70 points downward—and the bearish trend will continue with renewed strength.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1649, turned in favor of the dollar, and began a new decline. Consolidation below 1.1538 allows expectations of continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1448. A consolidation above 1.1538 will work in favor of the euro and lead to some growth toward the next resistance area at 1.1649–1.1680. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been released for more than a month. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators has now reached 252,000, while short positions amount to 138,000—practically a twofold difference. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above. They reflect strong accumulation of positions in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro is growing, while interest in the dollar is declining.

For 33 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term, structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators show decline.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Nonfarm payrolls (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment rate (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average hourly earnings (13:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for November 20 includes three entries, two of which are extremely important—traders have been waiting for them for a month and a half. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be very strong.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Sales were possible upon closing below 1.1594 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1517. The target has been reached. New sales may be considered upon closing below 1.1517. Long positions may be considered on a rebound from 1.1517 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1594.

Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 20, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday consolidated below the 161.8% corrective level at 1.3110, thus exiting the sideways range. The decline continued almost to the 200.0% level at 1.3024. A rebound from the 1.3024 level will work in favor of the British currency and trigger some growth toward 1.3110. Consolidation of the pair below 1.3024 will increase the probability of further decline toward the next level at 1.2931.

The wave situation remains bearish. The last upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave broke the previous low. Unfortunately for the pound, the news background has deteriorated recently, and now the bulls find it extremely difficult to launch attacks. To end the bearish trend, growth above 1.3470 or the formation of two consecutive bullish waves is required.

For eight days in a row, the pound traded between 1.3110 and 1.3186, but finally left this zone yesterday. Wednesday's news background delivered a clear verdict for the pound—a new decline. Recall that throughout last week, the pound withstood negative UK economic statistics, but a drop in inflation to 3.6% was something it could no longer ignore. Lower inflation in the UK automatically raises the likelihood of monetary easing by the Bank of England at the next meeting to 100%. If at the previous meeting nearly half of the MPC committee voted for a rate cut (with inflation stuck at 3.8% for three months), then at the next meeting the number of "doves" will be even higher. However, the pound should not despair prematurely. Today, for the first time in 2.5 months, reports on the U.S. labor market and unemployment will be released, and there is little reason to expect strong data. Thus, today it may be the U.S. dollar that falls—but everything will depend on the afternoon statistics.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline within the downward trend channel. If a new bullish trend is beginning, we will gradually receive confirming signals. I will begin to expect strong appreciation of the pound only after closing above the channel. Consolidation below the 1.3044 corrective level will allow for expectations of continued decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2925. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became more bullish during the last reporting week, but that week was a month and a half ago. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while short positions decreased by 912. The current gap between long and short positions is essentially 85,000 vs. 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the scales in their favor.

In my view, the pound still retains prospects for decline, but each new month makes the U.S. dollar look weaker. Earlier, traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, not fully understanding the potential outcomes. Now they may worry about the consequences of that policy: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's confrontations with the Federal Reserve, which could leave the regulator "politically biased." Thus, the pound looks much less risky than the U.S. currency.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Nonfarm payrolls (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment rate (13:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average hourly earnings (13:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for November 20 contains at least two important entries. News impact on market sentiment on Thursday may be strong in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Sales were possible when the pair closed below 1.3110 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3024. Profits on these trades can now be taken. Long positions may be opened on a rebound from 1.3024 with a target of 1.3110, and new short positions may be opened upon closing below 1.3024.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.3247–1.3470 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Minutes of the October FOMC Meeting

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The U.S. dollar has emerged as a leader in growth against the euro, pound, yen, and other risk assets. According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on October 28–29, many Federal Reserve officials stated that it would likely be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025.

"Many participants noted that, based on their economic outlook, it would likely be appropriate to leave the target range unchanged through the end of the year," the minutes said. This decision is expected to support the U.S. currency, making it a more attractive asset for investors seeking stability and predictability amid global economic uncertainty. Considering that other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, are showing a more flexible stance regarding monetary policy, the dollar may maintain its advantage in the near term. However, market participants should keep in mind that the situation could change if U.S. inflation begins to accelerate or if other factors, such as a sharp decline in the labor market, put pressure on the dollar. In particular, any signs of weakening in the U.S. economy may force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current stance and consider lowering interest rates, which could potentially weaken the dollar.

The minutes, published on Wednesday, showed that several policymakers opposed lowering the Fed's benchmark rate at this meeting. Nevertheless, some participants indicated that another rate cut could be appropriate in December if the economy developed as they expected.

The minutes highlight the uncertainty regarding the likelihood of a rate cut next month, given the ongoing disagreements within the committee about what poses a greater threat to the U.S. economy—inflation or unemployment.

As a reminder, a majority of committee voters at the meeting agreed to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second consecutive time, although two officials dissented. Governor Stephen Miran, recently appointed by President Trump, voted for a half-point rate cut. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued for keeping rates unchanged. At the press conference following the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised investors by warning that another rate cut in December was not a predetermined decision.

Over the subsequent three weeks, Federal Reserve officials who are more concerned about inflation and less inclined to support another rate cut in December dominated public discussions about future monetary policy actions.

Additionally, yesterday the U.S. government canceled the release of the October employment report because some data could not be collected during the government shutdown. Today, only the labor market reports for this year's October will be published, while the October data will be released after December 16 together with the November figures.

Against this backdrop, investors have reduced their expectations for a December rate cut, which has strengthened the dollar.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about reclaiming the 1.1525 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1545. From there, it may be possible to reach 1.1570, although doing so without support from large players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1585 high. In the event the trading instrument declines, I expect any significant buyer activity only around the 1.1500 level. If no one steps in there, it would be best to wait for a renewal of the 1.1470 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1430.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3070. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3100, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3125 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3030. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to bull positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3000 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.2975.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 20/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, USDX, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 20, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Thursday, the market may begin moving upward from the 1.3055 level (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.3077 — the 176.4% target level (red dotted line). From this level, the price may possibly pull back downward, aiming for 1.3057 — the 185.4% target level (red dotted line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volumes – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the 1.3055 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving downward, targeting 1.3043 — the historical support level (light blue dotted line). From this level, the price may possibly bounce upward, targeting 1.3077 — the 176.4% target level (red dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market rescued by NVIDIA

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NVIDIA has rescued the market! The positive corporate earnings report from the world's largest company allowed the S&P 500 to break a four-day losing streak, with its shares rising by 6.5% in after-hours trading. From the record highs in late October, shares of the tech giant had dropped by 12%, dragging down not only the entire sector but also American stock indices. It's time to make a comeback.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and Tech Sector Stocks

Dynamics of S&P 500 and Tech Sector Stocks

NVIDIA's revenue for the third quarter amounted to $57 billion, with $51.2 billion coming from data centers, and earnings per share increased to $1.3. All figures exceeded Wall Street analysts' forecasts, including the sales forecast for the fourth quarter at $65 billion. These impressive results allow for hopes of a recovery in the upward trend for the tech giant's stocks.

In the entire history of their trading, recoveries after drops of 10% or more have occurred 16 times, with an average decline of 16.7%. The size of these declines ranges from 10.1% in February 2023 to 24% in the first quarter of 2025. Five times, the drops in NVIDIA's shares qualified as "bear markets," falling by 20% or more.

After the report from the world's largest company, there will be fierce discussions regarding artificial intelligence. Optimists will argue that this topic is still hot and will ultimately allow the S&P 500 to restore its upward trend. Pessimists will point to the high costs faced by tech companies and doubts about their profitability.

Dynamics of Magnificent Seven's AI Technology Expenditures

The problem is that declines in the broad stock index during October and November were fueled not only by inflated fundamental valuations and doubts about the effectiveness of tech companies. The market stopped believing in a federal funds rate cut in December, and the minutes from the October FOMC meeting definitively dissuaded investors from expecting a continuation of the monetary expansion cycle in 2025. Many officials deemed this inappropriate.

Moreover, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has no intention of providing the October employment report. Its figures will be included in the November statistics, which will be released on December 16, after the last FOMC meeting of this year. The lack of data forces the Fed to act cautiously. Rates will most likely remain at 3.75-4% until the January meeting, which is bad news for American stocks.

The S&P 500 may face difficulties due to slowing US economic growth. The longest shutdown in history is likely to subtract about 1 percentage point from GDP. These figures will be known in 2026, and in this context, a rate cut may seem like a drowning man's lifeline, which could frighten the stock market.

Technically, on the daily chart of the S&P 500, bulls have managed to hang onto the support level of 6,620. However, as long as quotes remain below the fair value of 6,740, bears are in control. Any rise in the broad stock index should be used for selling.

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EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 20, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Thursday, the market may continue moving downward from the 1.1536 level (yesterday's daily candle close), aiming for 1.1516 — the 76.4% retracement level (blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may bounce upward, targeting 1.1534 — the 14.6% retracement level (yellow dotted line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – downward
• Fibonacci levels – downward
• Volumes – downward
• Candlestick analysis – downward
• Trend analysis – downward
• Bollinger Bands – downward
• Weekly chart – downward

Overall conclusion: downward trend.

Alternative scenario: On Thursday, the market may continue moving downward from the 1.1536 level (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.1472 — a historical resistance level (light blue dotted line). When testing this level, the price may bounce upward, targeting 1.1516 — the 76.4% retracement level (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 20: S&P 500 and NASDAQ halt their slide

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Yesterday, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.59%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.10%.

Stocks surged after a confident earnings forecast from Nvidia Corp. eased concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry, which had recently unsettled markets worldwide. Nvidia's shares jumped by 5% during trading after the earnings report was released, driving up the stocks of other AI-focused companies. S&P 500 futures rose by 1.2%, and contracts on the Nasdaq 100 increased by 1.8%, as the easing of a key risk factor improved sentiment following a week of instability. Shares of Alphabet Inc. soared after a wave of positive reviews for the recently released version of its AI model, Gemini.

Asian indices also returned to growth for the first time in five days: Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed by 2.5%, and South Korea's Kospi, the symbol of the AI boom and one of the fastest-growing markets in the world this year, gained 2.9%. Bitcoin rose to $92,000. Treasury bonds stabilized after a slight decline in the previous session, as expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve diminished in light of unfavorable labor market outlooks.

Nvidia's strong performance helped restore a fragile calm after a week of active selling in tech stocks, as Wall Street grew concerned about inflated valuations and massive expenditures on AI infrastructure. Another key focus for investors is interest rate dynamics, as markets eagerly await the release of the September employment report, which will be published today.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced yesterday that it would not release the October employment report but would include wage data in the November statistics, which would be published after the last Fed meeting of 2025, scheduled for December.

As a result, the Fed is left without key economic data ahead of its final meeting this year. There is now an increasing likelihood that policymakers will maintain the key interest rate at 3.75-4%. The minutes from the October Fed meeting indicated just that. Many members of the central bank stated that it would likely be prudent to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2025.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the primary task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,727. This would help the index gain ground and open the possibility for a move to a new level of $6,743. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,756 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,711. A break below would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,697 and open the way to $6,682.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold Stalls While Rising

.Gold has stabilized after two days of gains as traders reevaluate expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate cut next month. Following an increase of nearly 1% over the previous sessions, the price of gold has declined. Higher interest rates generally increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. After yesterday's FOMC minutes indicated a pause in the ongoing rate-cutting cycle, traders lowered the likelihood that the Fed would make any changes by the end of the year.

The strength of the U.S. dollar is also influencing gold's dynamics. A stronger dollar typically puts pressure on gold prices, making the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Given that the U.S. dollar index has shown resilience lately—linked to a reassessment of expectations regarding Fed policy—the decline in gold isn't surprising.

Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data, including inflation and employment figures, which could provide additional clues regarding the trajectory of Fed interest rates. However, with the October employment report not being published, this places Fed members and traders in a challenging position. The October data will be released alongside the November report, which will come out after the final FOMC meeting of the year.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the October meeting indicated that many officials likely deemed it appropriate to keep rates unchanged until the end of 2025.

It's worth noting that gold has risen significantly this year, gaining over 50% and reaching record levels in October. This increase has been supported by two previous rate cuts by the Fed, as well as heightened purchases of gold by central banks and inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

As for the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to conquer the nearest resistance at $4124. Achieving this will allow targeting $4,186, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,249. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control below $4,062. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a significant blow to bullish positions and could push gold down to a low of $4,008, with the potential to reach $3,954.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on November 20

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Bitcoin recovered after hitting a new monthly low of around $88,700 yesterday. Ethereum is also attempting to establish itself above the $3,000 mark.

The sharp rise in the U.S. stock market pulled the cryptocurrency market along with it. The focus yesterday shifted to Nvidia Corp.'s earnings report and forecast. After the release of strong figures, traders revised their positions, easing concerns about a potential bubble in the artificial intelligence industry that had recently stirred markets worldwide.

As the flagship of digital assets, Bitcoin rose, pulling altcoins along with it. Investors felt a renewed sense of confidence, and risk appetite significantly increased. However, caution remains in the market. Some experts warn against excessive optimism, pointing out that one successful report does not guarantee sustained growth, a statement that is hard to dispute.

In the coming days, attention will focus on additional economic data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. These factors could alter the current market dynamics and determine its further direction. It's important to remember that, despite their integration with traditional finance, cryptocurrencies remain volatile assets.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to base my actions on significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the expectation of a bullish market developing in the medium term.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $93,200, targeting a move to $95,000. At $95,000, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also occur from the lower boundary at $91,800, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $93,200 and $95,000.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $91,800, targeting a drop to $90,100. At $90,100, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can occur at the upper boundary of $93,200, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $91,800 and $90,100.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,062, targeting a move to $3,134. At $3,134, I will exit my buys and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also occur from the lower boundary at $3,008, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $3,062 and $3,134.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,008, targeting a drop to $2,941. At $2,941, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can occur at the upper boundary of $3,062, provided there is no market reaction to its breakdown back to $3,008 and $2,941.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.09 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's bullish potential. For this reason, I did not buy dollars and missed a good upward movement.

The Japanese yen fell to a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar following the release of the FOMC minutes from October. Traders saw clear indications that the Federal Reserve might pause rate changes later this year, which strengthened the dollar's position. As USD/JPY rose sharply, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda indicated the possibility of a rate hike at the December meeting, emphasizing the need for normalization, but the yen did not respond.

The market seemed to ignore the explicit signal, continuing to focus on global factors, particularly expectations for the Fed's policy. It is clear that for a substantial strengthening of the yen, more convincing evidence of the BoJ's readiness for aggressive normalization is needed, as well as a weakening of the U.S. dollar, which currently seems unlikely. Nevertheless, Koeda's comments highlight the growing pressure on the BoJ. Inflation in Japan consistently exceeds the target level of 2%, and the weakening yen adds to the pressure on households and businesses due to rising import prices. The question is whether the BoJ can find the optimal time and pace for raising rates to avoid negatively impacting economic growth. The upcoming December meeting will be a key indicator of the BoJ's future actions. If the central bank indeed decides to raise rates, this could trigger a sharp yen strengthening and a revaluation of assets denominated in yen. Otherwise, the market may interpret this as a sign of indecision and continue to ignore verbal interventions.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches an entry point around 157.76 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 158.36 (thicker green line on the chart). At 158.36, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.24 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.76 and 158.36.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaches 157.24 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.70 level, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25-pip move against the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.76 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.24 and 156.70.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3103 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's bearish potential. The second test at 1.3103 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, prompting trade #2 to buy the pound, which resulted in a loss as the anticipated rise did not materialize.

The appreciation of the dollar and the decline of the pound came after it became clear that many Federal Reserve officials consider it prudent to keep interest rates unchanged until the end of 2025. The minutes strengthened the dollar's position against other major currencies, as investors revised their expectations for the timing and scale of future interest rate cuts in the U.S. Earlier, the market had expected a more aggressive easing of monetary policy by the end of the year. However, now, given the Fed's more conservative stance, confidence is growing that the dollar will retain its appeal as a relatively high-yielding currency.

Today, the only economic report will be the CBI Industrial Order Balance from the Confederation of British Industry. The market will certainly focus on the CBI report as the only source of an up-to-date view of the state of British industry. Experts predict a slight improvement in this indicator, which could lead to a temporary recovery of the pound, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the current bearish market. Other factors, such as news on the budget from Rachel Reeves, may have a more significant impact on the pound's exchange rate.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches an entry point around 1.3063 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3092 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3092, I plan to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the pound can be anticipated only with very good data today. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3046 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3063 and 1.3092.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking the level of 1.3046 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3008 level, where I plan to exit shorts and open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from there. Sellers of the pound will reveal themselves with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3063 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3046 and 1.3008.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 20. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's bearish potential. For this reason, I did not sell euros and missed a good downward movement of the pair.

Yesterday's publication of the FOMC minutes from the October meeting indicated that most Federal Reserve officials lean towards keeping interest rates unchanged by the end of this year. Overall, the divergence of opinions within the Fed suggests ongoing uncertainty regarding future monetary policy. It is essential to continue monitoring new statements from Fed representatives and incoming data to evaluate potential scenarios and adjust decisions as conditions change. However, the likelihood of further dollar strengthening remains, especially if the Fed continues its hawkish rhetoric.

Upcoming data includes the German Producer Price Index, the Bundesbank's monthly report, and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index. The dynamics of producer prices in Germany will reflect inflation processes in the production sector. Analyzing this index will help understand how much company profits are currently constrained and how this may affect the prices of goods and services for the population. This indicator is closely studied by both the European Central Bank and traders to forecast inflation trends in the Eurozone. The regular report from the Bundesbank traditionally includes an in-depth analysis of the current economic situation in Germany, key forecasts, and an assessment of potential risks. This document is a vital information resource for economists and analysts, enabling a comprehensive understanding of the leading economy in the Eurozone. The commentary on growth prospects, inflation, and monetary policy is particularly significant.

The Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index serves as a key indicator of consumer sentiment. It reflects consumers' expectations about the future state of the economy, employment, and personal financial conditions. An increase in this index will strengthen the euro, while a weak reading may place pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios:

• Scenario #1: A buy opportunity may arise if the price reaches around 1.1597 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1625. At 1.1625, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Growth in the euro can be anticipated only after positive reports. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1578 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.1597 and 1.1625.

Sell Scenarios:

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1578 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1546, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (targeting a 20-25-pip move against the level). Pressure on the pair will return once critical support levels are breached. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1597 twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1578 and 1.1546.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Looking at all the technical indicators, #USDX on the 30-minute chart indicates strengthening conditions, therefore on Thursday,

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[#USDX]

With both EMAs condition forming a Golden Cross and the RSI indicator positioned in the Extreme-Bullish area, along with the appearance of a Hidden Bullish Divergence, today #USDX has the potential to strengthen.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 100.67

2. Resistance. 1 : 100.39

3. Pivot : 99.92

4. Support. 1 : 99.64

5. Support. 2 : 99.17

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #USDX breaks out and closes above 100.39, there is potential to move toward 100.67.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 100.67 is successfully broken and closes above it, the level 101.14 may be tested.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of #USDX declines and breaks down below 99.17.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 99.87

EMA(200): 99.59

RSI(14) : 72.21 + Hidden Bullish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the United States session, several important economic data will be releases, such as:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative

US - Existing Home Sales - 22:00 WIB

US - CB Leading Index m/m - Tentative

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With the appearance of a Hidden Bullish Divergence on the RSI, #NDX has the potential to strengthen today. Thursday, November

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[#NDX]

Although both EMAs are still in a Death Cross condition, but with the appearance of a Hidden Divergence between the #NDX price movement and the RSI at the Extreme-Bullish level suggests that there is significant potential for strengthening today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 25265.2

2. Resistance. 1 : 25069.2

3. Pivot : 24717.0

4. Support. 1 : 24530.0

5. Support. 2 : 24177.8

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks above 25069.2, #NDX has the potential to rise to 25265.2.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 25265.2 is successfully breached, then #NDX may test the level 25608.4.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of #NDX declines and breaks down below 24177.8.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 24705.1

EMA(200): 24845.3

RSI(14) : 70.34 + Hidden Bullish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the United States session, several important economic data will be releases, such as:

US - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - 20:30 WIB

US - Non-Farm Employment Change - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Rate - 20:30 WIB

US - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - 20:30 WIB

US - Unemployment Claims - Tentative

US - Existing Home Sales - 22:00 WIB

US - CB Leading Index m/m - Tentative

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.