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September 27, 2023 : Analyzing Recent Trends and Trading Opportunities in EUR/USD: A Technical Analysis Perspective.

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By the end of June, the buyers struggled to break above 1.0930, which was a crucial hurdle, and only managed to reach 1.1200 briefly before the bears took over.

Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range between 1.0600 and 1.1000, waiting for a clear direction from the market sentiment and the economic data.

The recent breakout above 1.1000 signalled upside movement towards 1.1200, where a downside pullback was initiated towards 1.1000 which failed to provide enough support for the pair.

The recent upside pullback towards 1.1050 (backside of the broken uptrend) was considered for a valid SELLING opportunity.

Moreover, the current downside movement of the price was expected towards 1.0780 which failed to show significant bullish recovery.

Further downside movement extended towards 1.0550 where the next support levels are located.

On the other hand, any upside movement towards 1.0670 should be considered for a valid SELL Entry.

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September 27, 2023 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trading plan.

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The EURUSD bulls controlled the price action around the key level of 1.0550-1.0600, leading to more bullish continuation towards 1.1000 and 1.1200.

The recent bullish movement pursued towards the resistance zone around 1.1200 where lack of bullish momentum seemed to exist.

On the other hand, the recent bearish pullback was facing a temporary support around 1.0950 where the short-term uptrend came to meet the pair.

After this trend reversal, price was expected to decline towards to the price levels of 1.0800 which stood as a temporary daily support before another bearish decline could happen.

Early signs of bearish breakdown of the depicted uptrend were executed. Since then, the EUR/USD pair has been declining for the past few days.

More bearish decline may be expected towards 1.0450 where a cluster of support zones are located. However, any upside pullback towards 1.0800 should be considered for a valid SELL Entry (backside of the broken uptrend).

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September 27, 2023 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and significant key-levels.

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The GBP/USD pair has shown signs of bearish rejection just below 1.3200, initiating the recent bearish movement.

After bearish closure below the price level of 1.2800 on a H4 candlestick, it continued to fall toward 1.2500 where the depicted uptrend line comes to meet a significant Fibonacci Level.

This should be considered for Intraday traders as a valid BUY Entry with Stop Loss to be placed just below 1.2500.

However, signs of hesitation were expressed in a narrow sideway movement which ended-up with bearish continuation.

Moreover, further bearish decline was expected towards 1.2160 constituting a key-support level which is being visited Today. If confirmed to be broken, further bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1850

On the other hand, any bullish pullback towards 1.2520-1.2600 should be considered for another SELL Entry.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

CAD/JPY in up channel

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The CAD/JPY pair edged higher, reaching 110.75 high. Now, it has retreated a little and now is located at 110.55 at the time of writing. After its strong rally, a temporary drop is natural. Still, the bias remains bullish, so an upside continuation is still in cards despite temporary retreats.

The currency pair rallied in the last hours as the Yen was weakened by the Japanese Yen Futures' drop. The CAD took the lead after the US reported better than expected data today. Tomorrow, the US economic figures could have a big impact. The Final GDP is expected to report a 2.2% growth versus the 2.1% growth in the previous reporting period, while the Final GDP Price Index may report a 2.0% growth. In addition, Unemployment Claims and Pending Home Sales could report worse data compared to the previous reporting period.

CAD/JPY 110.69 Key Resistance!

The CAD/JPY pair failed to retest the uptrend line signaling strong buyers. It has jumped above the weekly R1 (110.55) but it has found resistance at the 110.69 former high.

It has registered only a false breakout through this static resistance and now it has dropped a little.

CAD/JPY Forecast!

As long as it stays above the uptrend line, the CAD/JPY pair could resume its growth. Jumping and closing above 110.69 activates more gains. This is seen as a new buying opportunity.

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Analysis of GBP/USD. September 27th. The Bank of England may keep the rate at 5.25% until the end of the year

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The wave analysis for the pound/dollar pair remains fairly straightforward and understandable. The construction of a new downward trend section continues with its first wave, which is taking a considerable amount of time. In my view, there is no reason for the British currency to resume its ascent, so I am simply not considering a scenario with a new upward section. The first wave of the downward trend section has already taken on an extensive form, but the demand for the pound continues to decline. I remind you that there are no specific target wave sizes. The first wave can continue for as long as it wants, without any limitations.

The internal wave structure of the first wave of the new trend section looks complex, and it is difficult to discern five waves within it. However, five waves can be seen in the euro currency. If the construction of the downward wave set is completed for the euro, then, with an 80% probability, it will also be completed for the pound. However, on Thursday, the pound made a successful attempt to break through the 1.2314 level, which corresponds to 61.8% according to Fibonacci, so it may fall, and the euro made a successful attempt to break through the 1.0637 level, so it may also fall. The construction of correction waves is currently being postponed.

Why buy when you can continuously sell? The pound/dollar pair's exchange rate fell further on Wednesday, losing a few more points following a 30-point drop the day before. Demand for the British currency is declining every day. It is decreasing slowly, not quickly, but this results in a strong downward trend, or more precisely, only its first wave. Today, the pair approached the 1.2115 level, which corresponds to 76.4% according to Fibonacci. A successful attempt to break through, and the pound will continue to decline. An unsuccessful attempt, and the construction of the second corrective wave may begin. I believe that the second scenario is more likely, but it will all depend on the 1.2115 level.

Demand for the pound continues to decline, with or without reasons. Today, from an economic perspective, I can mention the report on core durable goods orders in the USA. Let's be honest; this is not the most important report, and the British pound lost only a few points today. In other words, this report did not trigger a new wave of instrument sales. Nevertheless, order volumes increased by 0.2% in August, while the market expected a decrease of 0.5%. Therefore, even today, the American currency could have deservedly strengthened. It did not happen today, but it does not matter when the instrument has been declining for 3–4 weeks in a row.

Meanwhile, many analysts note that in November, the Bank of England may extend the September pause if inflation does not rise sharply and unexpectedly. The consumer price index remains high, so even in September, the regulator was supposed to raise the rate. Since it did not, it will not tighten without serious reasons in November.

General Conclusions.

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar pair suggests a decline within a new downward trend section. The maximum the pound can expect in the near future is the construction of wave 2 or b. However, even with a corrective wave, there are significant problems. At this time, I would be cautious about staying in sales because an unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.2115 level may indicate the market's readiness to build a correction wave.

On a larger wave scale, the picture is similar to the euro/dollar pair, but there are still some differences. The downward corrective section of the trend continues to be constructed, and its first wave has already taken on an extensive form and is completely unrelated to the previous upward section.

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Analysis for EUR/USD on September 27, 2023

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The wave analysis of the 4-hour chart for the euro/dollar pair remains quite clear. Over the past year, we have seen only three-wave structures constantly alternating with each other. For the past few months, I have regularly mentioned that I expect the pair to approach the 5th figure, from which the construction of the last bullish three-wave structure began. The instrument has not yet reached the 5th figure, but it has already surpassed the 6th figure. And the first wave of the new bearish trend section is not even completed yet. Can you imagine how far the euro could fall in a few months?

None of the recent price increases resembled a full-fledged 2nd or b wave. Therefore, all of them were internal corrective waves within the 1st or a wave. If this is indeed the case, the decline in prices may continue for some time during this wave. This would mean that the overall decline of the European currency is not over yet because the construction of the third wave is still required. Within the first wave, we can already see five internal waves, so its completion is approaching. Nevertheless, the successful attempt to break through the 1.0637 level, which is equivalent to 100.0% according to Fibonacci, indicates the market's readiness for additional sales of the pair.

The euro continues to fall, regardless of the news background. The euro/dollar pair's exchange rate fell by 20 basis points on Tuesday and another 60 on Wednesday. Despite the fact that there was almost no news background yesterday and today was marked by only one report in the USA, the market continues to reduce demand for the euro and raise the dollar every day. It uses almost every opportunity and chance available. Thus, the news that the market would have simply ignored 2-3 months ago now leads to a decline in the pair. But could it be that the decline of the European currency (along with the British pound) is based on more global factors? Such as monetary policy and economic prospects? If this assumption is correct, then everything falls into place. Monetary policy remains stronger in the USA, the economy is stronger in the USA, and wave analysis implies the construction of a bearish trend section (i.e., an increase in the US currency).

Today, another member of the ECB's Governing Council, Frank Elderson, stated that interest rates could still be raised if necessary. Undoubtedly, he meant an unexpected and sharp rise in inflation in the European Union. His opinion almost completely coincides with the opinion of almost the entire monetary committee; the only difference is that some of its representatives emphasised the lack of a need to raise rates, while others allowed for tightening if a complex inflation situation arises.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis conducted, I conclude that the construction of a bearish set of waves continues. I still consider the targets for the downward trend section in the range of 1.0500–1.0600 quite realistic, especially since there is very little left to reach them. Therefore, I continue to recommend selling the pair. Since the downward wave has not completed near the 1.0637 level, we can now expect a decline to the 5th figure and the 1.0465 level, which is equivalent to 127.2% according to Fibonacci. However, the second corrective wave will start sooner or later on this wave.

On a larger wave scale, the wave analysis of the ascending trend section has taken on an extended form, but it is likely already completed. We have seen five upward waves, which are most likely a structure of a-b-c-d-e. Then, the pair built four three-wave structures: two down and two up. Now, it has probably moved on to the stage of constructing another extended bearish three-wave structure.

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NZD/USD: sell-off stopped

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The NZD/USD pair rallied in the last hours and now is located at 0.5928, far above today's low of 0.5920. Still, the downside pressure remains high, so a larger rebound needs strong confirmation. Technically, the price action signaled exhausted sellers even if the US reported positive data today.

Fundamentally, the Australian CPI reported a 5.2% growth as expected. Earlier today, the US Durable Goods Order reported a 0.2% growth beating the 0.5% drop expected, while Core Durable Goods Orders reported a 0.4% growth beating the 0.2% growth estimated. Tomorrow, New Zealand is to release the ANZ Business Confidence, while the US publishes the Final GDP, Unemployment Claims, Final GDP Price Index, and Pending Home Sales. Also, Fed Chair Powell Speaks is seen as a high-impact event.

NZD/USD Bullish Momentum!

As you can see on the H1 chart, the rate found support on the uptrend line. The price action developed a minor flag pattern. It's trapped between 0.5944 and 0.5922 levels.

Escaping from this pattern could bring us new opportunities. Staying near the uptrend line may announce an imminent breakdown.

NZD/USD Forecast!

Dropping and closing below the uptrend line and under 0.5922 activates more declines. This is seen as a short opportunity.

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USD/JPY dynamics scenarios on September 27, 2023

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The dollar is strengthening across the currency market, while its main competitors, the euro, yen, and pound, are weakening against it, also pushing the DXY dollar index towards the next "round" resistance level of 107.00.

At the same time, the media reports disagreements in the U.S. Congress regarding the approval of the budget for the next fiscal year and the possibility of a government shutdown, which also increases demand for the safe-haven dollar.

Thus, the willingness of Federal Reserve leaders "to further raise rates if necessary" has been perceived by dollar buyers as a signal to increase long positions, and positive macroeconomic indicators of the U.S. economy allow the Fed to do so, enabling the dollar to continue its rise.

From a technical perspective, the DXY index (CFD #USDX in the MT4 terminal) is trading in a zone of strong bullish sentiment, medium-term—above the key level of 103.50 (200 EMA on the daily chart), long-term—above the key support levels of 101.20 (144 EMA on the weekly chart) and 100.00 (200 EMA on the weekly chart).

In this situation, long positions remain preferable. The first, the "fastest" signal for new purchases here could be a break above the local resistance level and today's high at 106.46.

In an alternative scenario, a break below the key support level of 103.50 will return the DXY to the medium-term bearish market zone.

The first signal to implement this scenario and open short positions could be a break below the local support level and today's low at 106.14, and the important short-term support level at 106.02 (200 EMA on the 15-minute chart).

A break of the key support level of 100.00 in case of further decline in the DXY will create conditions for it to enter the long-term bearish market zone.

Support levels: 106.14, 106.00, 105.84, 105.50, 105.00, 104.65, 104.40, 104.00, 103.50, 103.00, 102.00, 101.20, 100.00

Resistance levels: 106.46, 107.00, 107.80, 108.00, 109.00, 109.25

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EUR/USD: Political Battles in the United States, Oil Market, and Rising Treasury Yields

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The dollar continues to advance on all fronts despite worsening consumer sentiment in the United States and a rather sharp decline in new home sales. Yesterday's macroeconomic reports ended up in the "red zone" but were ignored by the market.

Parity on the Horizon

The greenback continues to enjoy increased demand, allowing the EUR/USD pair to break below the 1.0600 support level and now consolidate within the range of the 1.0000 figure. In light of recent events, some experts have already begun discussing the prospects of reaching parity. Such assumptions are made cautiously and hypothetically at this point, but judging by the dynamics of the downward trend, this scenario cannot be ruled out. There are just over 500 pips left to the 1.0000 mark—whether this is a lot or a little is debatable.

On one hand, the pair has shown a clearly defined downward movement for 11 consecutive weeks, falling 700 pips since mid-summer. In other words—figuratively speaking, half the journey is completed. On the other hand, it is evident that the closer EUR/USD sellers get to the parity level, the harder it will be for them to gain each conquered point. However, such challenges may arise around the 3-2 figure and below (assuming the bears don't weaken their grip). For now, the path to the fourth figure is open. The current fundamental background supports further price decline.

As mentioned earlier, yesterday's macroeconomic reports failed to provide support for EUR/USD buyers. Rising dynamics in the oil market, increased Treasury yields, and an impending political crisis in the United States (resulting in a shutdown) are all fundamental factors pushing the safe-haven greenback higher. The U.S. Dollar Index today reached a 10-month high, rising to 106.030. Major dollar pairs in the "major group" have responded accordingly. For instance, the EUR/USD pair updated a 7-month low, reaching the midpoint of the fifth figure.

"The Specter of a Shutdown"

Yesterday, the U.S. Senate voted to begin debating approval of a temporary budget to avoid a shutdown (a federal government shutdown will occur at midnight on Sunday if the budget is not approved). This was an expected move by the senators, but the issue of a shutdown remains on the agenda.

Besides the upper chamber of Congress, there is also the lower chamber, where the political landscape is somewhat different. The leaders of both parties in the Senate have proposed a compromise temporary budget to the House of Representatives, which involves a proportional extension (until November 17) of the current budget's effectiveness. Politicians hope to find a compromise in the next month and a half and pass a permanent budget.

But judging by the preliminary statements of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, this scenario will not come to pass, and starting Monday, hundreds of thousands of government employees will not go to work. McCarthy stated yesterday that he will work to ensure that all Republicans support the temporary funding bill. However, the speaker is being deceptive because simultaneously with this statement, he intends to include strict border and immigration restrictions in this bill, which are unlikely to be supported by many Democrats in the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Furthermore, the far-right wing of the Republican faction in the lower house of Congress (the so-called "Trumpists") openly opposes passing the budget and is intentionally leading the country toward a shutdown. It seems that further events will unfold according to a negative scenario.

Amid rising risk-off sentiments, the safe-haven dollar feels rather comfortable as it enjoys increased demand.

Treasury Yields and the Oil Market

The rise in Treasury yields also provides significant support to the greenback. The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has exceeded the 4.5% target (the highest level since August 2007) in light of hawkish expectations regarding the Fed's future actions. Recall that the updated dot plot suggests another rate hike this year. In addition, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, following the September meeting, also hinted at another round of monetary policy tightening, citing rising overall inflation.

Another ally of the dollar is the oil market. Amid growing concerns about fuel shortages, oil prices continue to rise. In particular, Brent crude oil has approached $94 per barrel after a minor correction. The price of oil is steadily increasing, and this fact raises legitimate concerns about inflation.

During the U.S. trading session on Wednesday, official data from the U.S. Department of Energy will be published. According to forecasts, these data will reflect a reduction in oil reserves by 320,000 barrels, gasoline by 120,000 barrels, and distillates by 1.3 million barrels. If the release matches the forecasts, the oil market may again demonstrate an upward movement, indirectly supporting the dollar.

Conclusions

The current fundamental background supports further decline in the EUR/USD pair. The nearest and primary (for now) target of the downward movement is the 1.0500 level, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger Bands indicator line on the D1 timeframe. Long positions are inherently risky, and selling should be considered on corrective pullbacks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. September 27th. The ECB keeps the question of rate hikes open

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The EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend on Tuesday after consolidating below the correction level of 100.0% (1.0637) towards the level at 1.0533. The distance between these two levels is about 100 points, and trader activity is not very high at the moment. Bulls are currently taking a break, only occasionally indicating their presence in the market, while bears continue to sell the pair somewhat reluctantly but do so almost every day, which supports the strength of the dollar. A rebound from the 1.0533 level could lead to some upward movement towards the 1.0637 level, and a consolidation below it would favor further declines towards the 1.0483 level.

After some consideration, I have decided to include an upward wave that formed on September 21st–22nd. However, for several days now, a new downward wave has been forming that easily broke the previous low. Therefore, at the moment, there is no sign of the bearish trend ending. To see such signs, we would need two new waves or an increase in the pair to at least 1.0675.

The information background has been weak for several days in a row. This weak background is only expressed in the low activity of traders and does not affect the speed of the euro's decline or the rise of the dollar in any way. Yesterday, the US released reports on new home sales and consumer confidence by CB. The first one turned out worse than expected, and the second one was also worse. However, the importance of these data was so low that they had no destructive impact on the dollar. Also, almost every day, representatives of the ECB make statements, 80% of which boil down to the fact that there is no expectation of further tightening of monetary policy in the near future. The interest rate will only rise if inflation begins to accelerate sharply.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated below the corrective level of 100.0% (1.0639) and continues to trade within a descending trend corridor. Thus, the process of the quote's decline can be continued towards the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.0466). I recommend counting on a noticeable rise in the euro only after it closes above the corridor. There are no emerging divergences in any of the indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

In the last reporting week, speculators closed 4952 long contracts and opened 6147 short contracts. The sentiment of major traders remains bullish but has noticeably weakened in recent weeks and months. The total number of long contracts concentrated in the hands of speculators is now 207 thousand, while short contracts amount to 105 thousand. The difference is now only twofold. I believe that the situation will continue to shift towards the bears over time. Bulls have dominated the market for too long, and now they need a strong information background to maintain the bullish trend. Such a background is lacking. The high value of open long contracts indicates that professional traders may continue to close them in the near future. I believe that the current figures allow for the continuation of the euro's decline in the coming months.

Economic Calendar for the US and the European Union:

US – Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On September 27th, the economic events calendar contains just one entry, which can be considered fairly important. But it's just one. The impact of the information background on trader sentiment today will be weak.

Forecast for EUR/USD and trader recommendations:

Selling the pair today was possible when closing below the 1.0637 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0575 and 1.0533. Buying can be considered on a rebound from the 1.0533 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0637.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. September 27th. The pound continues its free fall

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward trend on Tuesday after settling below the level of 1.2201. Thus, there is nothing to prevent the pound from falling to the level of 1.2112 today or tomorrow. A rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the British currency and some growth towards 1.2201. Closing the pair's rate below 1.2112 will increase the chances of further decline towards the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.2039).

Since the same downward wave has been forming for the sixth day in a row, the overall picture has not changed since Tuesday. The "bearish" trend persists, and at the moment, there is no sign of its completion. I would like to remind you that, for any signs to appear, there must be at least some growth in the pair. If there is no growth, signs cannot theoretically appear.

The information background for the pound has been even more scarce in recent days than for the euro. However, it is the pound that we continue to observe daily declines in, which no level can stop. I believe that the reason lies not even in the recent meeting of the Bank of England, when the decision was made not to raise the rate, but in the proximity of the moment when the British regulator will end its rate hike. It should be noted that all three central banks are close to this moment, and all three state that a new tightening will occur only if inflation begins to rise sharply. In the United States, it has already started to rise, so an interest rate increase to 5.75% can be expected in November. In the UK and the EU, inflation remains high, but both central banks somehow started preparing for the end of tightening too early. This factor could be pushing the pound and the euro down.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its downward movement and has consolidated below the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2289). Thus, the pound's decline may continue towards the next level at 1.2008. A new bullish divergence for the CCI indicator is imminent, which suggests some growth, but it has not formed yet. The level of 1.2250 on the hourly chart has not stopped the decline either. It is already practically free.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among "non-commercial" traders in the past reporting week has become less bullish again. The number of long contracts held by speculators decreased by 12,270 units, while the number of short contracts increased by 221 units. The overall sentiment of major players remains bullish, and the gap between the number of long and short contracts is narrowing every week; it's already 85,000 versus 55,000. In my opinion, the British pound had good prospects for further growth, but now many factors have turned in favor of the US dollar. I don't expect a strong pound rally in the near future. I believe that over time, bulls will continue to liquidate their buy positions, just like in the case of the European currency. The market situation can only be changed by the Bank of England if it continues to raise interest rates for a longer period than planned, but the recent meeting showed that this factor may not be relied upon.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

US - Core Durable Goods Orders (12:30 UTC).

On Wednesday, the economic events calendar includes only one fairly important entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment today will be weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Selling the pound was possible when it closed below 1.2201 with a target of 1.2112 on the hourly chart. At the moment, these positions can be kept open. I do not currently recommend buying in such a strong "bearish" trend; there are no "bullish" signals at this time.

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EUR/USD: downside continuation

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The EUR/USD pair dropped as much 1.0534 today, registering a new low. You knew from my previous analyses that the bias remains bearish. So, more declines could be possible as the Dollar Index is bullish.

Earlier, the USD received a helping hand from the Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data. The economic indicators came in better than expected, boosting the greenback. Tomorrow, the German Prelim CPI and the US Final GDP could really shake the price.

EUR/USD Challenging Static Support!

Technically, the EUR/USD pair extended its sell-off after taking out the 1.0575 former downside obstacle.

Now, it challenges the weekly S2 of 1.0540 which represents static support. Also, the former low of 1.0534 represents a downside obstacle.

EUR/USD Outlook!

A bearish closure below 1.0534 is seen as a selling signal.

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GBP/USD: trading plan for the US session on September 27th (analysis of morning deals). Nobody is in a hurry to buy a pound

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In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.2158 and recommended making entry decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. Growth and the formation of a false breakout around 1.2158 led to a selling signal, resulting in a 20-point downward movement in the GBP/USD pair. Considering that the trend is bearish, we can expect the GBP/USD to continue its descent. For this reason, the technical picture has slightly changed for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:

The further direction of the pound depends on the reaction to US statistics. However, even weak data can lead to further declines in the pair, similar to what happened yesterday. We have upcoming figures on the change in the volume of orders for durable goods, and an increase in this indicator will be a good reason to increase short positions. For this reason, bulls need to make a significant effort to avoid breaking below the new support level of 1.2133, formed in the first half of the day. A false breakout at this level will provide an entry point for long positions, anticipating a correction to 1.2172, where the moving averages are located, favoring the bears. A breakthrough and consolidation above this range will restore buyer confidence, signaling the opening of long positions with an exit at 1.2212, where I expect the presence of larger sellers. The ultimate target will be the area of 1.2247, where I will make profits. In the scenario of a decline to 1.2133, as well as the absence of buyer activity in the second half of the day, which is more likely to happen, the pressure on the pound will only increase. In this case, only protection at 1.2080, as well as a false breakout there, will provide a signal to open long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce only from the minimum of 1.2028, with the goal of a 30-35 point intraday correction.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, the following is required:

In the event of GBP/USD rising in the second half of the day, short positions around the new resistance of 1.2172, where the moving averages are already located, will be the optimal scenario. Therefore, if GBP/USD makes an upward move, there will be a battle for this level. The target in this case will be the new local minimum of 1.2133. A breakthrough and a reverse test from bottom to top of this range against the backdrop of strong US data, as well as hawkish statements by FOMC member Neel Kashkari, known for his tough stance, will deal a new serious blow to bullish positions, providing an opportunity for a drop to support at 1.2080. The more distant target remains the area of 1.2028, where I will take profits. In the scenario of GBP/USD rising and the absence of activity at 1.2172 in the second half of the day, buyers will have an excellent opportunity to build an upward correction, which has been pending for quite some time. In this case, I will postpone selling until a false breakout at 1.2212. If there is no downward movement at that level, I will sell the pound immediately on a bounce from 1.2247, but only with the expectation of a 30-35 point intraday correction.

In the COT (Commitment of Traders) report for September 19, there was a reduction in long positions and a minimal increase in short positions. This indicates that there are fewer pound buyers, but there is no clear increase in sellers. The released data on the reduction in inflation in the UK influenced the decision of the Bank of England, which left interest rates unchanged, surprising many. Traders perceived this news as negative since the regulator seems to be at the peak of its rate hike cycle, making the pound less attractive in this position. Considering that the UK's economy could demonstrate a sharp slowdown in the third quarter, it's not surprising why the pound is actively falling against the US dollar. In the latest COT report, it is stated that long non-commercial positions decreased by 12,270 to 85,095, while short non-commercial positions increased by only 221 to 51,412. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 9,348. The weekly closing price fell to 1.2390 from 1.2486.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is taking place below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2133 will act as support.

Description of Indicators:

Moving Average (a moving average that determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked on the chart in yellow.Moving Average (a moving average that determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked on the chart in green.MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence - convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.Non-commercial traders - speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: trading plan for the US session on September 27th (analysis of morning deals). The euro continues to be sold

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In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the level of 1.0576 and recommended making trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout led to an excellent selling entry point for the euro, which, at the time of writing this article, resulted in a drop of almost 20 points. In the second half of the day, the technical picture has not changed.

To open long positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

Weak data from Germany and lending in the Eurozone prevented euro buyers from regaining control of the 1.0576 level, after which pressure on the pair returned. In the second half of the day, everyone will be waiting for data on changes in durable goods orders and the speech of FOMC member Neel Kashkari, who has been making aggressive statements about future monetary policy lately. However, even weak data from the United States, similar to yesterday, can be perceived as a reason to buy the US dollar against risky assets, especially against the backdrop of recent discussions about the onset of a recession in the United States. For this reason, I plan to act against the trend only on the decline to the nearest support level at 1.0545. The formation of a false breakout there will provide a good entry point for long positions, expecting an upward correction of the pair with the target of retesting the resistance at 1.0576, above which the moving averages, favouring sellers, are located. Only a breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom will revive demand for the euro, giving it a chance to surge to 1.0608. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.0643, where I will make a profit. In the scenario of a further EUR/USD decline and the absence of activity at 1.0545, which is more likely, the bearish trend will continue to develop. In this case, only the formation of a false breakout around 1.0520 will signal an entry into the market. I will open long positions only on a rebound from 1.0487, with the target of an upward correction within the day of 30-35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, the following is required:

Obviously, after successfully defending 1.0576 in the morning, sellers continue to control the market. For the further development of the bearish market, they need good US statistics and a breakthrough of 1.0545. If, after the release of the data, we see an upward movement, the defence of the resistance at 1.0576, and a false breakout, it will all lead to a good entry point for selling with a downward movement to a new monthly minimum at 1.0545. Only after breaking and consolidating below this range, as well as a bottom-up retest, do I expect to get another selling signal with the aim of reaching 1.0520, where I anticipate the presence of larger buyers. The ultimate target will be the area around 1.0487, where I will make a profit. In the event of an upward movement of EUR/USD during the American session and the absence of bears at 1.0576, buyers will have a good chance of a pair recovery. In this case, I will postpone short positions until a new resistance level of 1.0608, from which the euro fell once yesterday. It can be sold there, but only after an unsuccessful consolidation. I will open short positions only on a rebound from the maximum of 1.0643, with the aim of a downward correction of 30-35 points.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 19, there was a sharp reduction in long positions and an increase in short ones. Negative changes in the Eurozone economy, as well as the risk of further interest rate hikes by the ECB, have led to the further development of the bearish market. Not even the decision of the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged helped the euro, although it should be noted that the Fed officials made it clear that they do not rule out another increase in borrowing costs in the United States by the end of this year. The COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions decreased by 4,952 to 207,424, while non-commercial short positions increased by 6,147 to 105,443. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 8,290. The closing price fell to 1.0719 from 1.0736, indicating a bearish market.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is conducted below the 30 and 50-day moving averages, indicating further decline in the pair.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of the moving averages on the hourly chart (H1), which differs from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

In the case of an uptrend, the upper boundary of the indicator around 1.0576 will act as resistance.

Description of Indicators:

Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.Moving Average (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period 30. Marked in green on the chart.MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Fast EMA period: 12. Slow EMA period: 26 SMA period 9Bollinger Bands, Period 20.Non-commercial traders: speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements.Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open positions of non-commercial traders.Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open positions of non-commercial traders.The net non-commercial position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD: more gains ahead

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The USD/CAD pair resumed its growth and now is trading at 1.3530. You knew from my previous analyses that the currency pair could develop a new swing higher. The bias is bullish in the short term, so further growth is favored.

Fundamentally, the US economic figures could move the rate later today. The Core Durable Goods Orders may report a 0.2% growth, while Durable Goods Orders is expected to report a 0.5% drop. Positive data could help the pair to approach and reach new highs.

USD/CAD Leg Higher!

As you can see on the h1 chart, the rate extended its growth after taking out the 1.3491 former high as expected. You knew from my previous analysis that this scenario could take shape after escaping from a minor flag.

Now, it has jumped above the former high of 1.3523 and it seems determined to resume its growth.

USD/CAD Forecast!

Breaking above 1.3523 was seen as a bullish signal. Staying near this obstacle announced an imminent breakout. Testing and retesting the broken resistance and making a new higher high activates further growth. A bullish closure above today's high of 1.3537 could be seen as a buying opportunity. Taking out the R1 (1.3540) confirms an upside continuation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 27th. The Fed will maintain a "hawkish" stance until the end of the year

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward movement on Tuesday. The chart above may suggest that we are dealing with a strong trend, and indeed, this is true, but it is important to understand one very important detail. The downward movement cannot be called strong because the volatility is currently low and the pound is losing value by 20–30 points a day. At the same time, we do not see any retracements or corrections; the pair simply continues to fall not just every day but every hour. It is through this factor that the overall strength of the trend is achieved.

Based on an understanding of the nature of this movement, it can be said that trading in the short term is currently impractical. Intraday movements are weak, so any position potentially cannot even yield average profits. The only option is to hold positions for several days, and for that, you need to trade on the 4-hour or 24-hour timeframe without reacting to Heiken Ashi indicator reversals since it is a fast indicator and there is currently no correction. So, it turns out that it reverses in vain. The same applies to the CCI indicator, which has already indicated strong oversold conditions three times, but we have not seen any hint of a correction. Therefore, the conclusion is evident: to identify a correction, one should wait for the price to consolidate above the moving average.

And the last thing to add is that the pound's downward movement is absolutely logical and regular, but the character of the movement is inertial. This means that market participants are practically selling the pound every day, even when there are no local reasons for it. How long such a movement can continue is an open question. It is worth remembering how much the pound rose when there was no basis for it. Of course, we are not counting on growth for 3–4 months without a single correction, but in general, we expect the pound to continue its decline.

The Fed is ready to raise rates again. While the market has been disappointed in the Bank of England, which has decided to prepare for the end of the tightening cycle of monetary policy, the Fed may raise the key rate once or twice more. It doesn't matter that the Bank of England may also raise the rate once or twice more. The market has absorbed these increases over the course of a year, simultaneously ignoring all the "hawkish" actions of the Fed. Thus, the fact that the British regulator may tighten monetary policy means nothing for the pound. The fact that the American regulator may tighten policy will now support the dollar.

Susan Collins, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, stated yesterday that rates in the United States may need to be held higher and longer than previously thought. There is nothing surprising in this rhetoric, as inflation in the United States has been rising for two consecutive months, and the Federal Reserve has the necessary tools to continue tightening or keep the rate at highs for an extended period. In recent months, energy prices have been rising, which will stimulate the consumer price index to new growth. However, let's reiterate that the Federal Reserve has the necessary tools to continue fighting inflation in real-time rather than simply fixing the rate and hoping that inflation will drop to 2% in a few years. The dollar remains in a more advantageous position.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days as of September 27th is 77 points. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." Therefore, on Wednesday, September 27th, we expect movement within the range bounded by 1.2063 and 1.2217. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will signal a possible upward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1: 1.2146

S2: 1.2085

Nearest resistance levels:

R1: 1.2207

R2: 1.2268

R3: 1.2329

Trading recommendations:

In the 4-hour timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to hover near its local lows and updates them every day. Therefore, at this time, it is advisable to stay in short positions with targets at 1.2085 and 1.2063 until the price consolidates above the moving average. Consideration of long positions will be possible only after the price consolidates above the moving average, with targets at 1.2329 and 1.2390.

Explanations for the illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at the moment.

Murray levels: target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines): the probable price channel in which the pair will move in the next day based on current volatility indicators.

CCI indicator: its entry into the overbought region (above +250) or oversold region (below -250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Will USD halt its rally? Gold and oil likely to show moderate uptick

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A fresh wave of sell-offs in the markets, accompanied by an increase in US Treasury yields and a strengthening of the US dollar, has become a reality. A combination of several negative factors could not be ignored by the market.

What is behind the market's decline?

The first reason to push markets down was the hawkish statement by Fed Chair Jerome Powell after last week's central bank meeting. In essence, the interest rate might be raised once more this year by 0.25%. However, the real concern wasn't just the potential hike, but the hint that high rates might persist until 2026. Not long ago, the market was hopeful that rates would begin to decrease gently next year, especially after the Federal Reserve achieves its 2% inflation target.

Another significant blow came on Monday when Moody's warned of a potential downgrade to the US government's rating if the chaos in the tax and fiscal policy domains doesn't cease. This warning was especially worrisome amid a looming government shutdown or cessation of funding due to the intensifying conflict between Democrats and Republicans ahead of the US presidential elections.

If these issues weren't alarming enough, Tuesday presented another cause for concern with the release of weak economic figures. Data showed a reduced growth in construction permits, with 1.541 million compared to 1.443 million and a forecast of 1.543 million. Moreover, the CB Consumer Confidence Index decreased to 103.0 in September, against an expected drop to 105.5 points, though it was revised upwards to 108.7 points for the previous period. On top of that, new home sales in August dropped to 675,000 compared to a forecast of 700,000 and a revised previous value of 739,000.

This data, combined with the looming shutdown threat and aggressive statements from the Federal Reserve, tested the resilience of market players. This resulted in reduced demand for risk assets, a fresh rise in Treasury yields, and a boost in the dollar's exchange rate.

Will the market sell-off and the dollar's rally continue?

The market downtrend may soon come to an end, and we might even witness a slight rebound in stock indices and a weakening of the dollar's value. This may happen amid profit-taking and closing of previously opened positions, rather than a shift in market sentiment. Significant changes might occur on Friday if the published data regarding the personal consumption expenditures index, figures on incomes and expenses, as well as the anticipated inflation and consumer sentiment values from the University of Michigan, indicate a decrease. This would signal a potential slowdown in US inflation.

In such a scenario, the closing of positions will come together with purchases of cheaper assets in anticipation of a new pause in rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Naturally, under these conditions, the American currency is set to depreciate.

Daily forecast:

WTI crude oil

Oil prices are still ruled by the standoff between Russia and the consolidated West, as well as the strict policy of OPEC+. If the price remains above the $91.30 mark, a retest of the $93.50 level can be expected.

XAU/USD (Gold)

Gold is trading below the range of $1,900.00-$1,947.50, the channel it has been holding in since late August. If market sentiments improve, the dollar might come under pressure, allowing gold to return to this range and possibly even rise to the $1,913.75 level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Euro will not wave the white flag

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The market takes everything into account. This time it's about the bond market. The dynamics of the bond market influence other markets—Forex, stock indices, and ultimately the economy. If the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds continues to rise, it will further accelerate the sell-off in equities. The decline in the S&P 500 will begin to affect consumer sentiment and behavior, leading to a slowdown in GDP. In the initial stages, this is favorable for bears on EUR/USD, but in the end, it poses a risk of weakening the Fed's monetary policy—bad news for the U.S. dollar.

As the Federal Reserve has repeatedly noted, monetary tightening affects the U.S. economy with a time lag. The most damage is done by the rapid rise in real yields on U.S. Treasury bonds. Business and consumer costs increase, incomes fall, and GDP slows down.

Dynamics of U.S. bond yields

However, as long as this process is in its early stages, the U.S. dollar continues to benefit from the divergence in economic growth. U.S. stock indices outpace their European counterparts, which, according to Credit Agricole, is one of the drivers of the peak in EUR/USD. Two other drivers are external pressure and worsening internal problems. International trade volumes continue to decline, which negatively affects the export-oriented eurozone. At the same time, Bloomberg reports that the ECB intends to increase reserve requirement ratios, adding to the negative impact on the economy.

If the November–July rally in EUR/USD was based on expectations that the ECB would continue monetary tightening after the Fed puts an end to the process, the situation has changed now. Even the hawks at the European Central Bank are talking about keeping the deposit rate at 4% for an extended period. Meanwhile, even FOMC centrists are in favor of resuming the cycle. The interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe may widen further, providing support for the U.S. dollar.

However, it is not advisable to assume that the euro has thrown in the towel. According to Bloomberg's expert forecasts, China may achieve its government target of 5% GDP growth. The acceleration of China's economy will provide support to the export-oriented eurozone.

Dynamics and forecasts for China's GDP

In the short term, a decline in U.S. Treasury bond yields could trigger a correction mechanism for EUR/USD. The reason is that Republicans and Democrats in the Senate have reached an agreement that the U.S. government shutdown will occur in mid-November rather than early October as previously expected. If their agreement is supported in the House of Representatives, U.S. debt yields and the dollar will decline.

Technically, on the daily chart, the attacks by the bears on EUR/USD continue. However, a return of the main currency pair above the pivot level of 1.059 or a rebound from the convergence zone of 1.051–1.0535 would be grounds for profit-taking on previously established short positions and for a reversal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 27th. The European currency is sliding down amid

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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward movement throughout Tuesday. Volatility remained relatively weak, and the decline was not too strong. Nevertheless, it is very stable and raises no questions. We have repeatedly mentioned in recent weeks that such a movement is expected from the European currency, even if it seems illogical at first glance. For example, on Monday and Tuesday, there were no significant events or publications to justify the continued decline of the European currency. Last week, we expected an upward correction, which has yet to materialize. However, this market situation is the most logical one after the euro either rose unjustifiably in the first half of the year or simply held at a very high level without a correction.

We believe that this factor is crucial for the euro and the dollar right now. Consider this: if the Federal Reserve has raised and is raising interest rates more aggressively than the ECB, why have we seen the euro currency rise over the past year? Assume that the market has already set prices for all rate increases in the United States. In that case, why weren't rate hikes in the European Union priced the same way? The European economy has been struggling for several quarters, while in the US, we have seen quarterly growth of 2-3%. Based on all these factors, we have constantly stated that it's time for the pair to move downward. Significantly and for the long term. We do not rule out the possibility that, by the end of the year, the euro currency will return to parity with the dollar.

In the 24-hour timeframe, the pair has breached the important Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.0609) and is now almost guaranteed to drop to the 5th level. Remember that we have long referred to level 1.05 as the target. However, the movement to the south may not end there. We fully consider the possibility of a drop to the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% (1.0200).

Muller and de Cos are once again pushing the euro lower.

There have been no significant macroeconomic publications in the past few days. Only today in the United States will the report on durable goods orders be published, which can be considered more or less significant. However, over the past few days and the entire last week, we have witnessed speeches by representatives of the ECB's monetary committee. Several times a day. In principle, it became clear last week that the ECB is on the home stretch and will raise rates at most one more time. As we have mentioned, in the case of the ECB or the Federal Reserve, such actions can be considered logical, as the central banks have raised (or will raise by the end of the year) rates to almost 6%. Further rate hikes would be risky for the economy. But the situation is different with the ECB. The rate is slightly above 4%, which is clearly insufficient to bring inflation back to the target level in the near future.

But we are not here to judge the ECB; we are merely stating a fact: the ECB's rate has increased too weakly compared to the Federal Reserve's rate, and the euro currency has risen for too long based on expectations of a strong tightening of monetary policy in the European Union. The European currency may continue to decline peacefully because a wave of disappointment has now covered the market.

On Tuesday, Madis Muller from the ECB stated that he does not expect a new rate hike. De Cos and de Galhau, the heads of Spain's and France's central banks, as well as Vice President de Guindos, had previously made similar statements. In one way or another, all ECB representatives have indicated that further tightening will only be possible in the event of accelerated inflation. However, the market is not too satisfied with this formulation because everyone understands that the European Union will be battling high inflation for several years to come. Just like the United Kingdom, but at least with Britain, it can be said that the central bank has done everything it could.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of September 27th is 65 points and is characterized as "average." Thus, we expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.0495 and 1.0625 on Wednesday. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator upwards will indicate a new attempt to make a slight correction.

The nearest support levels are:

S1: 1.0498

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.0620

R2: 1.0742

R3: 1.0864

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains a downtrend. Short positions can be held with targets at 1.0510 and 1.0495 until the price consolidates above the moving average. Long positions can be considered if the price consolidates above the moving average with a target of 1.0742.

Explanations for the illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it means the trend is strong right now.

The moving average line (settings 20.0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted at the moment.

Murray levels: target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines): the probable price channel in which the pair will move in the next day based on current volatility indicators.

CCI indicator: its entry into the overbought region (above +250) or oversold region (below -250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US premarket for September 27: Stock market turbulence gradually calming down

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US stock index futures opened in the green, with bond sell-offs slowing. The S&P 500 futures rose by 0.5%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ added around 0.8%. The US dollar index has also stabilized. In contrast, European indices dipped slightly after a positive start.

US Treasury bond yields dropped by four basis points. The bonds themselves rebounded after speculation that the Federal Reserve might maintain its tight policy into next year or even longer.

MUFG Bank Ltd believes that bond markets greatly influence the stock and currency markets, as well as the US economy. Their analytical note reads that "if yields continue to move higher, at some point relatively soon we will see even larger equity market declines and a hit to the main engine of the US economy – the consumer."

Meanwhile, oil prices have resumed their uptrend, surpassing $91 per barrel. This raises concerns about a potential spike in the Consumer Price Index in the late third and early fourth quarters of this year. Recent consumer sentiment data, which dropped to 103, only added fuel to the pressure on the stock market.

On Tuesday, Senate Democratic and Republican leaders agreed on a plan to keep the government running until mid-November. However, the plan still needs approval from the House of Representatives. Positive news post-vote could help counter the recent bearish trend observed in US indices.

As for the S&P 500, demand for the index remains weak. Bulls need to take control of $4,304 if they aim to halt the bearish momentum. From this level, they may drag the price to $4,332. Bulls also need to control $4,357, which would bring market equilibrium. If the price declines due to reduced risk appetite, bulls will have to protect $4,268. Breaking through this level, the index may plummet to $4,229 and $4,202.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY Analysis and Forecast

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For the fourth consecutive day, the USD/JPY pair is steadily heading towards the psychological level of 150.00, currently trading above the 149.00 mark.

The Japanese yen continues to face pressure due to the Bank of Japan's decision last week to maintain the status quo. At the end of the September meeting, the Japanese central bank left its ultra-loose policy unchanged, refraining from any hints of possible changes in the near future.

Additionally, earlier this week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the current policy has a significant stimulative effect on the economy, and the main position is to patiently maintain monetary easing. He added that Japan's economy is at a critical stage in achieving a positive wage growth cycle and sustainable inflation at 2%, which is not yet visible. Such statements dispel hopes of a future exit from the massive stimulus program and continue to undermine the yen.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates will not be falling in the near future. It openly stated that there will be further rate hikes by the end of the year, with only two rate cuts expected in 2024, instead of the previously speculated four, as anticipated three months ago.

Many FOMC members still express uncertainty about the end of the fight against inflation. Consequently, this supports the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy. This, in turn, led to selling in the U.S. bond market and pushed the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to the highest level since 2007, which became a key factor in the recent rise of the U.S. dollar to a 10-month peak and continues to support the USD/JPY pair's upward trajectory.

Nevertheless, the prevailing risk-off environment favors the relative status of JPY as a safe haven and limits the potential for spot price growth. But it should not be forgotten that Japanese authorities will intervene in the currency market to support the national currency. This restrains bulls from pushing USD/JPY to new levels.

In fact, Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a new warning against the recent weakness of the yen and stated last week that the government would not rule out any options to address excessive volatility in the currency markets. This, in turn, requires caution before taking positions regarding the continuation of the established upward trend observed since mid-July.

However, for now, the fundamental backdrop supports the pair's growth. But it is worth paying attention to today's news regarding the dollar before rushing into betting on further moves.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 09/27/2023 EUR/USD, SP500, Oil and Bitcoin from Sebastian Seliga

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Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/USD, SP500, Oil and Bitcoin.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis and trading tips for GBP/USD on September 27 (US session)

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Analysis of transactions and trading tips on GBP/USD

No price tests occurred in the morning due to low market volatility. This shows that some traders remain hesitant to sell at current lows because of the pair's oversold condition, not to mention that an upward correction could start at any moment. Others, particularly buyers, want to avoid entering the market because of the uncertainty.

This afternoon, there will be a report on US durable goods orders, which, if shows an increase, will lead to sell-offs in the pair. But if the figures turn out to be exceptionally poor, buyers will have a chance for growth. Statements made by FOMC member Neel Kashkari may also contribute to the decline.

For long positions:

Buy when pound hits 1.2156 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2202 (thicker green line on the chart). Growth will occur within the framework of an upward correction, following weak data from the US. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it.

Pound can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.2135, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2156 and 1.2202.

For short positions:

Sell when pound reaches 1.2135 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.2093. Pressure may return after the release of a strong US report. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.

Pound can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.2156, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.2135 and 1.2093.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy GBP/USD

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell GBP/USD

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on September 27 (US session)

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Analysis of transactions and trading tips on EUR/USD

Further growth became limited because the first test of 1.0572 coincided with the time when the MACD line lies within the overbought area. The second test, on the other hand, prompted a sell signal that led to a price decrease of nearly 20 pips.

Disappointing lending data in the eurozone kept pressure on the pair. It may exacerbate if the upcoming report on durable goods orders in the US shows an increase. But if the figures turn out to be exceptionally poor, buyers will have a chance for growth. Statements made by FOMC member Neel Kashkari may also contribute to the decline.

For long positions:

Buy when euro hits 1.0571 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0606. Growth will occur within the framework of an upward correction, following weak data from the US. However, when buying, ensure that the MACD line lies above zero or rises from it.

Euro can also be bought after two consecutive price tests of 1.0546, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0571 and 1.0606.

For short positions:

Sell when euro reaches 1.0546 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0513. Pressure may return in the case of strong US statistics. However, when selling, make sure that the MACD line lies below zero or drops down from it.

Euro can also be sold after two consecutive price tests of 1.0571, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0546 and 1.0513.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price at which you can buy EUR/USD

Thick green line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which you can sell EUR/USD

Thick red line - estimated price where you can set Take-Profit (TP) or manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD line- it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold areas when entering the market

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY driven forward by Fed's hawkish signals

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Driven by the rise in US Treasury yields, the US dollar continues to strengthen across the board, with the yen being hurt the most. While the current depreciation of the Japanese currency is limited by the risk of currency intervention by Tokyo, analysts are confident that the ongoing rally of the USD/JPY pair is set to continue.

Dollar's strong ground

Yesterday, the greenback extended its 5-day broad-based rally. By the end of Tuesday's trading, it surged by more than 0.2% against its main rivals, hitting a new 10-month high of 106.26.

Against the yen, the dollar appreciated by 0.13%, settling above the significant mark of 149.00. On an intraday chart, the pair hit 149.18, its highest level in 11 months.

In recent days, the primary catalyst for the US dollar's rally has been the rise in the yields of 10-year US Treasury bonds.

Last Monday, the yield dramatically soared to a 16-year high of 4.5660%. This surge was attributed to investors' hawkish sentiments concerning the Federal Reserve's forthcoming monetary strategies.

Last week during the FOMC meeting, the regulator decided to maintain interest rates within their current range.

Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve made it clear that it has no plans of winding down its anti-inflation campaign at this point. This is because the price growth remains robust, and a resilient economy favors further tightening.

The revelation that FOMC members are seriously considering another rate hike this year stunned the market. Many traders were confident that the Fed's rhetoric at the September meeting would be restrained and neutral. Instead, it was clearly hawkish. Analyst Tina Ten commented, "I'm now confident that the regulator will execute its intentions, leading us to witness higher rates."

This week, traders' confidence in the Fed's continued tightening has solidified primarily due to separate comments from FOMC members.

On Monday, several US officials, including Austan Goolsbee, Susan Collins, and Mary Daly, emphasized the need for ongoing combat against sticky inflation. Yesterday, they were joined in this sentiment by the head of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari.

The politician does not rule out the possibility that the Fed might need to significantly increase the key rate to conclusively bid farewell to high inflationary pressures.

Considering the prevailing hawkish stance within the Federal Reserve, the majority of market participants believe that this week Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will endorse his colleagues' views, potentially providing a fresh boost to the US dollar.

Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak on Thursday, September 28. It is anticipated that he will address the audience following the publication of US GDP data.

Currently, economists are projecting the US economy's growth to inch up from 2.0% to 2.2% in the second quarter. If these figures surpass preliminary estimates, it might spur Powell to make more assertive policy statements.

In such a scenario, the US dollar is poised to showcase a rocketing rise across all fronts, including against the yen.

Some analysts firmly believe that the overtly hawkish rhetoric of the Fed's chairman will outweigh traders' fears of currency intervention by Tokyo. As a result, the USD/JPY asset is predicted to surpass the psychologically critical threshold of 150 in the foreseeable future.

Yen's shaky ground

For many market participants, the 150 mark is viewed as the so-called 'red line'. They argue that reaching this level would prompt the Japanese government to conduct its first yen-purchasing intervention of the year.

For reference, in 2022, Tokyo intervened twice in the market to bolster its currency. A staggering sum of over $60 billion was allocated for this purpose.

Given that Japan's currency reserves rank among the world's largest, a continued sharp drop in the yen might prompt Tokyo to dip into its coffers once more.

A large-scale intervention would likely cause a sharp drop in the USD/JPY pair, but the asset is unlikely to stay at its lows for long, judging by its trajectory from the previous year.

The impact of the two intervention rounds a year ago was fleeting. And given that the current fundamental backdrop still favors the US dollar, it is plausible that history might repeat itself.

Analysts at Commerzbank think that "an intervention at this stage is unlikely to have a significant effect. Given that the Bank of Japan remains reluctant to abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy, a weakening yen is fundamentally justified. A weaker US dollar would be beneficial for the yen, but at the moment, no grounds for such a shift exist. A robust US economy combined with the Federal Reserve's hawkish tendencies supports the greenback and is likely to drive USD/JPY upwards."

It is worth noting that the Bank of Japan also held a monetary policy meeting last week. The outcome witnessed the regulator maintaining its status quo and signaling a continued dovish stance until the country's inflation becomes stable.

Earlier this week, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced this dovish rhetoric, stating that the central bank is still far from achieving its target of a stable 2% inflation. He emphasized the need for prolonged stimulus, effectively quashing market speculations about the Bank of Japan's imminent capitulation.

Apparently, the divergence in monetary perspectives between the BOJ and the Federal Reserve, which last year resulted in the JPY depreciating against the dollar to a 32-year low, remains in play and poses significant risks for the yen.

Regardless of the efforts made by the Japanese government to strengthen its currency (be it verbal interventions or actual market engagements), JPY stands little chance of achieving serious and lasting strength against the dollar unless both regulators initiate a monetary U-turn.

Technical outlook

From a technical viewpoint, the USD/JPY pair is aiming to test the key level of 150.00 in the short term. If it breaches this threshold, the next resistance to watch is the October 21st high of 151.94, followed by the 152.00 level.

On the flip side, if the pair drops below the Tenkan-Sen line at 148.10, it will expose the recent low registered at 144.44. However, on their way down, bears may face obstacles at such key support levels as the Kijun-Sen around 146.82 and the psychologically significant level of 145.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.