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EUR/USD Forecast on December 24, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rose to the resistance level of 1.1795–1.1802, rebounded from it, and then posted a slight decline. The drop in euro quotes coincided with the release of U.S. reports, which we will discuss below. By Wednesday morning, the pair had returned to the 1.1795–1.1802 level. Today, a second rebound from this zone would once again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1718. A consolidation above the zone would increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1919.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave broke above the peak of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls have regained confidence and are attacking with enthusiasm. The Fed's easing of monetary policy is putting pressure on the dollar, while the ECB is unlikely to create any problems for the euro in the near future.

On Tuesday, there was a news background. Traders could have expected the dollar to strengthen after the release of strong U.S. GDP data for the third quarter. The second estimate is not final, so in a month the market could see a completely different figure from the current +4.3% quarter-on-quarter. Nevertheless, U.S. economic growth turned out to be much stronger than expected, which triggered cautious bearish attacks. Why be cautious? Because in addition to the GDP report, two equally important reports were released—on durable goods orders and industrial production. The former declined by 2.2% in October versus forecasts of -1.5%, while the latter fell by 0.1% month-on-month against expectations of +0.1%. As a result, these two reports neutralized all the positive impact from the 4.3% growth in the U.S. economy. The dollar's rise was short-lived and very restrained. Further bullish attacks showed that bulls are ready for a new offensive toward the end of the year within the current bullish trend.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and resumed its growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to some decline toward the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. A consolidation above 1.1829 would increase the likelihood of further euro growth. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short contracts. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268,000, while short positions total 129,000—giving bulls more than a twofold advantage.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then the shutdown began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they are causing numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the United States—for example, the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and amid Jerome Powell's expected resignation in May next year.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 24, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is possible if prices rebound from the 1.1795–1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1718. Buy positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level with a target at 1.1795–1.1802. The target has been reached. If the price closes above the 1.1795–1.1802 level, positions can be kept open with targets at 1.1829 and 1.1919.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 24, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday first managed to consolidate above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3470, and then also rebounded from above it. Thus, the growth process continued toward the 1.3539 level. A rebound of quotes from the 1.3533–1.3539 level would work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to some decline toward the 1.3470 level. A consolidation above the 1.3533–1.3539 zone would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3595.

The wave situation has once again turned "bullish" after the completion of a sideways movement. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave managed to break the previous high. The news background for the British pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the information background in the United States also leaves much to be desired. For a week, bulls and bears were locked in a tug-of-war and remained in relative balance, but a week before the New Year, the bulls launched a new offensive.

The news background on Tuesday did not encourage new attacks by the bulls—or at least it was not unambiguous. To begin with, the growth process started back on Monday, when the only event of the day was the UK GDP report, which showed a rather mediocre figure. On Tuesday, before the release of U.S. reports, the British pound continued to rise while the dollar declined. The reports themselves on durable goods orders, industrial production, and GDP had virtually no impact on the current chart picture. We saw a corrective pullback on the statistics, but then the bulls continued to push their agenda. In my view, the U.S. dollar will continue to decline in 2026, but even in 2025 its fall may not yet be complete. Although America is not experiencing problems with economic growth, it is facing serious issues with the labor market, industrial production, and political stability.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair managed to consolidate above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. A bearish divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, which could trigger a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions rose by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions is currently effectively as follows: 60 thousand versus 135 thousand. As we can see, bears have dominated since the beginning of December, but the British pound appears to have already exhausted its downside potential. At the same time, the situation with positions on the euro currency is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency occasionally enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy in order to stop the rise in unemployment and stimulate the creation of new jobs. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be certain that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 24, the economic calendar contains only one minor entry. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be extremely weak or absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair today is possible on a rebound from the 1.3533–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3470. I previously recommended buying on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level with targets at 1.3425, 1.3470, and 1.3539. All targets except the last one have been reached. Today, long positions can be kept open with a target at 1.3595 if the price manages to close above the 1.3539 level.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Is Back to His Old Ways

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Yesterday, the dollar quickly resumed its decline against risk assets, barely having time to properly enjoy the strong U.S. GDP data.

This happened immediately after Donald Trump said that he expects the Chairman of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. This is yet another signal that the president wants a Federal Reserve chief whose policy would be aimed at lowering borrowing costs. Let me remind you that the deadline for Trump to announce his choice to replace Jerome Powell is approaching. "I want my new Fed Chairman to cut interest rates when the market is booming, not destroy the market for no reason," Trump wrote on social media. "Anyone who disagrees with me will never become Fed Chairman!"

Trump has repeatedly stated that he is interested in overcoming recent trends in which encouraging economic data are sometimes accompanied by market sell-offs due to fears of inflation and corresponding interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. "In the old days, when good news came out, the market went up," Trump wrote. "Now, when good news comes out, the market goes down because everyone thinks interest rates will be raised immediately to deal with potential inflation."

For this reason, yesterday's decline in the dollar showed a clear correlation with President Trump's remarks. His persistent calls for interest rate cuts are not merely economic analysis, but rather a political maneuver aimed at stimulating economic growth. Investors perceived this as pressure on the independence of the central bank, which certainly had a negative impact on the attractiveness of the dollar. However, it would be wrong to reduce everything to political factors alone. Despite strong GDP data, concerns remain about the sustainability of U.S. economic growth toward the end of this year due to the shutdown. Inflationary pressure, trade wars, and geopolitical uncertainty—all of these factors will continue to restrain investor enthusiasm.

As noted above, according to the data, U.S. gross domestic product adjusted for inflation grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, exceeding all estimates.

Last week, the president said that he has narrowed his list of candidates for the position of Fed Chairman to three or four contenders and expects to make a decision fairly quickly, announcing it within the next few weeks. Trump said that Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, and Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, are among the leading candidates for the post. He also interviewed Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and spoke highly of his work.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about breaking through the 1.1805 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1830. From there, it would be possible to climb to 1.1860, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1901. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1775 level. If no one is there, it would be a good idea to wait for a retest of the low at 1.1754 or to open long positions from 1.1729.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3555. Only this will allow them to target 1.3590, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The most distant target will be the 1.3622 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3505. If they succeed, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the low at 1.3475, with the prospect of moving on to 1.3445.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market gets boost from Trump's remarks

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Strong economic data and backing from the president—what more is needed to continue the S&P 500 rally? The broad market index marked a new record close amid an acceleration of US GDP to 4.3% in the third quarter. This result represents the best performance in two years and significantly exceeds Bloomberg analysts' expectations of 3.2%. The US economy is coping with a cooling labor market, which is beneficial for stocks.

According to Donald Trump, the stock indices' reaction to the impressive GDP figures could have been stronger. However, markets have recently responded to good news with skepticism, arguing that economic strength will lead to rising inflation and prompt the Fed to maintain interest rates. In reality, the new Federal Reserve chair will likely lower rates to reward investors for their success and support the stock market.

S&P 500 and Cyclical Stocks Index Dynamics

Presidential support is invaluable. However, without a strong economy, it is challenging to expect the S&P 500 to maintain its bullish trend for a fourth consecutive year. According to a survey of over sixty Bloomberg experts, US GDP is projected to expand by 2% or more in 2026, supported by cheap oil, which will also help slow inflation. This combination allows investors to rotate securities within their portfolios, replacing technology companies with cyclical stocks, which are currently outperforming the S&P 500. Investment advisors are particularly favoring JP Morgan, equipment manufacturer Caterpillar, as well as retailers Gap and Dollar Tree.

The current year has been significant for the MSCI All Country World ex-USA Index, which surged by 29%, outpacing the S&P 500 by 11.5 percentage points. If these numbers hold through the end of December, the gap will be the largest since 2009.

S&P 500 and Global Equity Markets Dynamics

In 2026, this divergence may widen even further. Germany, Japan, and China are not holding back on fiscal stimulus, and the conclusion of the armed conflict in Ukraine would reduce geopolitical risks and positively impact the European economy. The gradual increase in the Bank of Japan's overnight rate does not intimidate investors, as its monetary policy remains ultra-accommodative.

Next year, the S&P 500 will face stronger competition and will need to exert more effort to maintain its upward trend. However, does it really matter what will happen tomorrow? Today, the broad market index is enjoying the Christmas rally.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 has hit a new local high at 6,900. The October peak of 6,925 is within reach. A successful break above this level would pave the way for a continued upward trajectory toward the previously mentioned targets of 6,990 and 7,100. Traders are advised to maintain a focus on buying.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ maintain upside momentum

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.46%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 0.57%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.16%.

The MSCI All Country Index reached a record high, as data indicating the fastest growth in the US economy in two years bolstered corporate profit prospects. On Wednesday, the MSCI All Country World Index rose for the fifth consecutive day, increasing by 21% since the beginning of the year. The Asia-Pacific stocks index increased by 0.2%, largely driven by technology companies. However, trading volumes are expected to be relatively low today, especially with the Christmas holidays approaching.

The rise in commodity prices was even more pronounced: gold climbed above $4,500 per ounce for the first time before partially retracing its gains. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has recently increased due to the US blockade on oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Platinum and silver also reached record levels, while copper surpassed $12,000 per metric ton for the first time.

Risk appetite remained intact as the year comes to a close, even though stronger-than-expected US economic growth data reduced expectations for a near-term cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Following earlier concerns about inflated valuations of technology stocks in light of the AI boom, traders are regaining confidence that companies will demonstrate robust profit growth in 2026.

If consumer demand holds up throughout the holiday season and the fourth quarter, it should positively impact US GDP and corporate earnings. However, despite the US economy maintaining growth momentum through mid-year, fueled by strong consumer demand, the government shutdown in October-November is expected to negatively affect growth in the fourth quarter.

In other market segments, Treasury bonds saw slight price increases ahead of a seven-year bond auction, while the dollar index fell for the third consecutive day. The dollar is heading toward its worst annual performance in eight years, with fewer and fewer reasons for buying it. Yesterday, Trump stated that he expects the Federal Reserve chair to lower interest rates. This is the latest indication that the president is seeking a candidate committed to reducing borrowing costs, as the announcement regarding his replacement for Jerome Powell approaches next year. Currently, the market assigns less than a 13% probability to a rate cut by the Fed in January.

From a technical standpoint, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,914. Achieving this will signal further growth and open the door to a swing up to a new level of $6,930. Additionally, a priority for bulls will be to maintain control above the $6,946 mark to strengthen their positions. In the event of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,896. A break below this level could quickly drive the trading instrument back down to $6,883 and pave the way to $6,871.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.18 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a slight upward movement of the pair.

Yesterday's news that the U.S. economy posted the most significant growth led to a strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the yen. However, the correction did not last long, and pressure on the pair returned.

Today, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, which helped the yen stabilize against the U.S. dollar, increasing pressure on the USD/JPY pair. I would like to remind you that at the BOJ's last meeting this year, interest rates were raised. Higher interest rates in Japan make Japanese currency assets more attractive to investors, potentially leading to capital outflows from other countries.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 155.87 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 156.29 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.29, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and serious USD/JPY pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.64, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 155.87 and 156.29.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 155.64 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.21, where I intend to exit the shorts and also open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell from as high a point as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.87 twice, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.64 and 155.21.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3495 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, confirming the entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 pips.

The pound weakened and the dollar strengthened after news that the U.S. economy posted its fastest growth in several years in the third quarter of this year. GDP increased by 4.3% year-over-year, while economists had expected an increase of only 3.2%. This surge, following growth in the previous two quarters, bolstered confidence in the U.S. economy's resilience despite global challenges such as inflation and geopolitical instability. Strong consumer demand, especially in the services sector, as well as increased investment in business equipment and software, were key drivers of this growth.

The upward potential for the GBP/USD pair may continue today. However, the absence of economic data from the UK does not guarantee a one-sided movement for the GBP/USD pair. Global factors, such as market sentiment, political events, and U.S. news, will continue to significantly influence currency rates. Investors will also closely monitor technical indicators and support/resistance levels to identify potential entry and exit points. Furthermore, the lack of fundamental data from the UK may increase the volatility of the GBP/USD pair as traders will focus more on speculative factors and market movements.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3527 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.3567 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3567, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting strong growth for the pound today can continue in the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3507 at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3527 and 1.3567.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level of 1.3507 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3471 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open longs immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers may emerge during the correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3527 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3507 and 1.3471.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Transactions

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Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading European Currency

The price test at 1.1782 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Yesterday's news that the U.S. economy posted the most significant growth in the last two years triggered a rise in the dollar's exchange rate. This rise was supported by stable consumer spending. The published data showed that gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4.3% year over year. The main part of economic activity in the U.S., namely consumer spending, rose significantly due to declining inflation, indicating sustained confidence among American consumers. The GDP increase was also supported by rising government spending and export operations.

Today's lull in European reports does not preclude the continuation of the upward trend for EUR/USD. The absence of macroeconomic releases does not halt market activity. Likely, market participants will focus on the overall market environment, geopolitics, and news.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought upon reaching a price around 1.1809 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.1855. At the point of 1.1855, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only be achieved after good news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price 1.1785 is tested twice, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1809 and 1.1855.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1785 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1750, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some downward pressure on the pair may be noticeable in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price 1.1809 is tested twice consecutively, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1785 and 1.1750.

What is on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or independently capture profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to make very cautious decisions about entering the market. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid falling into sharp fluctuations in rates. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, to trade successfully, you need to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency Trading Recommendations for December 24

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Bitcoin buyers continue to face challenges. After the asset failed to return to the $90,000 mark once again, the pressure has only intensified. Trading around $87,000 opens up good prospects for further declines toward $85,000 and even $83,000 by the end of the year. It seems that the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally before the New Year will not happen.

Meanwhile, according to data from CryptoQuant, whales have stopped selling Bitcoin. This indicates that selling pressure has nearly disappeared. Large players actively locked in profits during BTC's decline from $124,000 to $84,000, but the market has now entered a phase of stabilization. However, this stabilization does not mean an immediate resumption of the rally. Instead, it is a consolidation period in which the market is seeking new drivers for further growth. It may require the emergence of new institutional investors or groundbreaking technological solutions in the blockchain sector to restore confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential.

It is also important to consider the macroeconomic context and not forget about regulatory factors. All critical issues have been pushed to next year, with mid-January as the timeframe for resolution, so it is unlikely that anything positive will emerge from the market before then.

Regarding the intra-day strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to focus on any significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continued development of the long-term bullish market, which hasn't gone anywhere.

The strategy and conditions for short-term trading are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $87,300, targeting growth to the level of $88,400. At $88,400, I plan to exit my purchases and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $86,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $87,300 and $88,400.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $86,700, targeting a decline to $85,900. At $85,900, I plan to exit my sales and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $87,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $86,700 and $85,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $2,940, targeting growth to the level of $2,969. At $2,969, I plan to exit my purchases and sell immediately on a bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $2,919 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $2,940 and $2,969.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $2,919, targeting a decline to $2,890. At $2,890, I plan to exit my sales and buy immediately on a bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $2,940 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back towards levels $2,919 and $2,890.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 24. The Pound Continues to Reach New Highs

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3490 level and planned to make decisions based on it. The rise and breakout at 1.3490 occurred without a retest, so I was unable to get an entry point for long positions. In the second half of the day, a false breakout around 1.3481 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, resulting in a gain of more than 30 pips.

For Opening Long Positions on GBP/USD:

Yesterday's reaction to the US GDP data, which strengthened the US dollar, was short-lived, and buyers of the pound quickly capitalized on it, turning the market in their favor. As a result, we are now observing a new monthly high. The further upward potential of the GBP/USD pair may continue during the European session since there are again no significant fundamental data from the UK, which will favor buyers. In the case of a slight downward correction, I expect the first signs of buyers to appear around the support level of 1.3508. A false breakout there would be a good opportunity to open long positions, targeting further growth towards the resistance at 1.3554. A breakout and retest of this range from above will increase the chances of strengthening GBP/USD, which would lead to the triggering of stop orders by sellers and provide an appropriate entry point for long positions with the potential to reach 1.3590. The furthest target will be the 1.3622 area, where I plan to take profits. If GBP/USD declines and there is no activity from buyers at 1.3508, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to movement towards the next support level of 1.3478. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from the low of 1.3447, targeting a correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

For Opening Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers have shown some activity, but they have been unable to maintain control over the market, even in the face of such strong reports, suggesting further development of the bullish trend. For this reason, caution is advised when considering selling. If the pair continues to rise, bears can be expected at the 1.3554 resistance level. A false breakout there will provide a reason to sell GBP/USD, targeting a drop towards the support level of 1.3508, where the moving averages, which favor the bulls, are located. A breakout and retest from below this range after weak data will deal a more significant blow to buyer positions, leading to the triggering of stop orders and opening the pathway to 1.3478. The furthest target will be the 1.3447 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD continues to rise and bears do not act at 1.3554, buyers will continue to build the trend, potentially leading to a surge towards 1.3590. I plan to open short positions there only after a false breakout. If there is no downward movement even at that level, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3622, but only in anticipation of a correction of 30-35 pips down within the day.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders (COT) data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is from December 9.

In the latest COT report, there was an increase in both long and short positions. The report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 8,067 to 60,319, while short non-commercial positions increased by 3,402 to 135,834. Consequently, the spread between long and short positions increased by 23,795.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is occurring above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating growth for the pound.
• Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3478 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average (Period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (Period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, including individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-Commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 24. The Euro Withstood Pressure

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Yesterday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.1776 level and planned to make decisions based on it. The breakout at 1.1776 occurred, but there was no retest, which meant I missed the opportunity to buy the euro. In the second half of the day, bears appeared around 1.1802, providing a good entry point to sell the euro, which led to a move of more than 30 pips.

For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The US dollar reacted yesterday with a temporary strengthening to news that the US economy posted the fastest growth in two years in the third quarter, supported by steady consumer and business spending. According to the data, the inflation-adjusted gross domestic product grew by 4.3% year-on-year, exceeding all forecasts. However, dollar buyers failed to defend their positions, resulting in another increase in the EUR/USD pair by the close of the US session. Today, there is little data from the Eurozone, so the pair may continue its upward trend. If there is a slight decline in EUR/USD during the correction, I expect to see the first signs of buyers around the support level at 1.1775, as formed by yesterday's trading. Only after a false breakout there can we get an entry point for long positions, targeting recovery towards the resistance at 1.1807, where trading is currently taking place. A breakout and retest of this range, as discussed above, will confirm the appropriate actions for buying euros with expectations of a larger rally to 1.1840. The furthest target will be the 1.1882 area, where I plan to take profits. If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying at 1.1775, pressure on the pair will increase, potentially driving it towards the next support level at 1.1754. Only a false breakout there would be a suitable condition for buying euros. I plan to buy EUR/USD immediately on a bounce from the low of 1.1729, targeting an intraday correction of 30-35 pips.

For Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers of the pound showed some activity yesterday but could not maintain control of the market, even amid robust reports indicating the continued development of the bullish trend. For this reason, caution should be exercised when considering short positions. If the pair continues to rise, bears may be expected around the 1.1807 resistance level. A false breakout there will provide an opportunity to sell EUR/USD, targeting a decline towards the support level of 1.1775, where moving averages support the bulls. A breakout and retest from below this range after weak data will deliver a more significant blow to buyers' positions, resulting in the triggering of stop orders and opening the pathway to 1.1754. The furthest target will be the 1.1729 area, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD continues to rise and bears do not act at 1.1807, buyers will have a good opportunity to extend the bullish market. In that case, short positions should be delayed until the larger level of 1.1840. Selling there will only occur after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1882, targeting a 30-35-pip downward correction.

Recommendations for Further Reading:

Due to the shutdown in the US, fresh data on the Commitment of Traders (COT) is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The latest available data is only from December 9.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), there was an increase in long positions and a decrease in short positions. However, for strategy development, this data is not applicable and therefore does not require special attention. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions rose by 18,446 to 268,118, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 11,889 to 129,330. As a result, the spread between long and short positions increased by 12,889.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is occurring above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating growth for the euro.
• Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classical daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1775 will serve as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving Average (Period 50): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average (Period 30): Indicates the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise; marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, including individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-Commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 24

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The euro and British pound have maintained their strength and continued to rise against the US dollar. The USD/JPY pair has also recovered all its losses, setting a new weekly low.

The US dollar temporarily strengthened yesterday after news that the US economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter. However, despite the positive economic news, traders remain cautious about long-term growth prospects. Concerns are arising from challenges in the labor market and inflationary pressures that may resurface amid such strong economic indicators. Growth in consumer spending indicates lingering confidence among American consumers, while the rise in business investments points to optimism among companies about prospects. Despite strong economic indicators in the third quarter, many economists believe growth will likely slow in the coming months.

Today, there are no reports from the Eurozone, so the EUR/USD pair may continue its upward trajectory. However, the absence of macroeconomic data does not imply a lack of market movement. Traders are likely to focus on general market conditions, geopolitical factors, and unexpected news that may emerge throughout the day. Technical analysis can also play a crucial role, allowing traders to identify support and resistance levels as well as form chart patterns. Given the current situation, it is important to stay vigilant and monitor the news to quickly react to any changes in market sentiment.

For the UK, there are also no reports scheduled for today, meaning that the pound has every chance for another push upward before the holidays.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy is most appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Long positions on a breakout above 1.1807 may lead to the euro rising to around 1.1840 and 1.1882.
• Short positions on a breakout below 1.1785 could send the euro to around 1.1760 and 1.1730.

For GBP/USD

• Longs on a breakout above 1.3536 may result in an increase in the pound to around 1.3560 and 1.3590.
• Shorts on a breakout below 1.3508 could send the pound to around 1.3478 and 1.3447.

For USD/JPY

• Longs on a breakout above 155.99 may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 156.30 and 156.68.
• Shorts on a breakout below 155.65 could send the dollar to around 155.32 and 154.95.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For EUR/USD

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1815 and a return below this level.
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.1778 and a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3541 and a return below this level.
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3496 and a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6720 and a return below this level.
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6699 and a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3694 and a return below this level.
• I will look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3668 and a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 24? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday, except for an insignificant indicator: US unemployment claims. Today is a shortened trading day in the currency market, as trading will close in the evening. Tomorrow is Christmas, and the market will be closed. The technical outlook for both currency pairs may remain bullish throughout the day, as the market is "thin" and most factors still point to a declining dollar.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are planned for Wednesday. In general, the market's questions currently revolve around the Federal Reserve. The last meeting took place recently, but afterwards, data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation were published in the US, all of which have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Therefore, we do not know the updated perspective of Jerome Powell and other members of the FOMC. However, as mentioned, there are no scheduled remarks from Fed officials on Tuesday. With the holidays approaching, many politicians and officials are taking time off.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue their upward movements. Short-term trends for both currency pairs remain bullish, and the market demonstrates a willingness to continue trading and buying. The EUR/USD pair will trade from the 1.1808 level today, while the GBP/USD pair will trade from the 1.3529-1.3543 area.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 24? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Trades on Tuesday:

1-Hour Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday. This was the second consecutive day of growth, seemingly without sufficient grounds. However, it is essential to remember that we frequently discuss the factors supporting the pair's continued rise. Thus, even in the absence of local events and reports, the pair can still show growth, and this growth will be entirely logical and expected, as the trend on the daily timeframe remains upward. Unfortunately, the price has not yet managed to break out of the sideways channel on the same chart, so growth is restrained by the 1.1800-1.1830 area. However, there is an ascending trend line on the hourly timeframe, and until a consolidation below it occurs, it is unlikely to consider a new decline for the euro.

Yesterday, the US published its third-quarter GDP report, which significantly exceeded expectations and temporarily halted the US dollar's decline. However, as anticipated, it did not stop the decline but merely paused it. Two other reports on industrial production and durable goods orders again showed weak readings, so the dollar's rise was short-lived.

5-Minute Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Tuesday. The last buy signal was generated on Monday evening, and traders who acted on it could have made a good profit. The price settled above the 1.1745-1.1754 area, and today it may attempt to break above 1.1808.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon conduct a new test of the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which is the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. It is quite possible that this time a breakout will occur. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop for the US dollar remains very weak, so we expect the pair to rise in the medium term.

On Wednesday, novice traders may look to trade from the 1.1808 level, from which the price has already rebounded overnight. A bounce from this level could be viewed as a sell signal, but we are currently in an upward trend, even in the short term. A breakout above this level will signal a long position targeting 1.1851.

Key Levels to Consider on the 5-Minute Chart: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Wednesday, there are no significant events or publications scheduled in the Eurozone or the US. However, the market shows its readiness to trade during the holidays, so it is not ruled out that growth will continue.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 24? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Tuesday:

1-Hour Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday for most of the day. It is worth noting that the only events that could have affected trader sentiment were published in the US. These include reports on industrial production, third-quarter GDP, and durable goods orders. GDP grew by 4.3%, which significantly exceeded forecasts, but industrial production fell by 0.1%, and durable goods orders declined by 2.2%. Thus, we continue to witness a paradox: the US economy is growing, yet most other macroeconomic indicators are declining. This situation is perhaps only possible under Donald Trump. The market clearly understands that current GDP growth is not a reliable indicator, and it is certainly not a reason to buy the US dollar. Therefore, the dollar's growth following the data release lasted only a couple of hours, and then the initiative was once again taken by the British pound. A new ascending trend line formed on the hourly timeframe, and we believe that the upward trend has resumed in the medium term.

5-Minute Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no new trading signals were generated on Tuesday. The last trading signal was formed on Monday evening when the area of 1.3437-1.3446 was broken. Last night, the target area of 1.3529-1.3543 was reached. A bounce from this area could provoke a small decline in the pair.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its flat phase and is resuming its upward move. We fully support this scenario, as we have repeatedly stated. There are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we only expect upward movement. Overall, we anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend in 2025, which may push the pair to the 1.4000 mark within the next couple of months.

On Wednesday, novice traders may look to open new long positions if the price breaks above the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3574-1.3590. Short positions will become relevant if there is a bounce from the area of 1.3529-1.3543, with a target around 1.3437-1.3446.

Key Levels to Monitor on the 5-Minute Chart: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. On Wednesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the US, but the market is ready to trade even ahead of Christmas and the New Year. The market is currently "thin," making it easier for market makers to move prices than in regular conditions.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With the appearance of a Hidden Bullish Divergence, Filecoin has the potential to strengthen today

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[Filecoin]

Although the conditions for Filecoin are still moving sideways, but with the position of EMA(50) and EMA(200) forming a Golden Cross provides an opportunity for Filecoin to strengthen toward its nearest resistance level today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 1.394

2. Resistance. 1 : 1.361

3. Pivot : 1.312

4. Support. 1 : 1.279

5. Support. 2 : 1.230

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Filecoin breaks above 1.312, it may strengthen to 1.361.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 1.361 is broken above, there is potential for Filecoin to continue strengthening up to 1.394.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Filecoin declines and falls below 1.230.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 1.297

EMA(200): 1.291

RSI(14) : 38.76 + Hidden Bullish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the U.S. market, there will only be one economic data release which is Unemployment Claims on 20:30 WIB.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Uniswap is likely to weaken toward its nearest support level

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[Uniswap]

With both of EMAs forming a Death Cross and the RSI in the Neutral-Bearish level, Uniswap has the potential to decline today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 6.324

2. Resistance. 1 : 6.070

3. Pivot : 5.858

4. Support. 1 : 5.604

5. Support. 2 : 5.392

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of Uniswap breaks down below 5.604, it may have the opportunity to test the level at 5.392.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 5.392 is broken, Uniswap could decline toward 5.138.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if the price of Uniswap weakens and falls below 6.324.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 5.836

EMA(200): 5.862

RSI(14) : 36.72

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight from the U.S. market, there will only be one economic data release which is Unemployment Claims on 20:30 WIB.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. December 24. The Pound Takes Advantage While It Can

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement for most of Tuesday. It is worth noting that on the second trading day of the week, three relatively important events were scheduled: US GDP, industrial production, and durable goods orders. However, one can immediately question the likelihood of a strong market reaction to these reports, especially since the previous week we saw virtually no movements during much more significant events and reports. Moreover, from the start of the trading week on Monday night until the release of US data on Tuesday, the British currency had already appreciated by 130 pips. This occurred during a holiday week and amid a complete absence of important news.

The reason is that the dollar has exhausted its luck. This fall, the British currency dropped for any reason. It was particularly amusing to see the pound fall time and again during UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves's speeches, even when she spoke about the weather. The UK's budget issues were priced in by the market multiple times, while Democrats and Republicans in the US could not agree on their 2026 budget. Only in the UK did things proceed without a "shutdown," whereas in the US, it lasted for a month and a half. Yet during this time, the dollar was rising.

In terms of the broader fundamental backdrop, nothing has practically changed for the dollar in the second half of 2025. Donald Trump enacted new tariffs in the early fall, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to ease, and the US president has not wavered from his goal of taking control of the Fed. The trade war continues, and the labor market is responding significantly to the new administration's decisions. Yes, the Bank of England will also lower its key rate next year, but the pound faces only easing monetary policy, while numerous bearish factors beset the dollar.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has broken through the Senkou Span B line on the daily timeframe of the Ichimoku indicator with standard settings. This is a very important moment signaling a change in trend. On the daily chart, even novice traders can easily see a three-wave correction—textbook classic. We have consistently stated that any dip in the pair is merely a correction, and now we are even more convinced of this.

The CCI indicator has grown weary over the past few months of entering the oversold area and drawing "bullish" divergences. Such signals during an uptrend indicate one thing—an impending resumption of the upward trend. During the holiday season, the market is "thin," which makes it much easier for market makers to move prices in the desired direction. Not every holiday season is accompanied by trending movements, but this year appears to be one of those rare exceptions.

The average volatility for the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days stands at 85 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. On Wednesday, December 24, we expect movements within the range limited by the levels of 1.3395 and 1.3565. The upper linear regression channel is directed downwards, but this is only due to a technical correction on higher timeframes.

The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area six times over the past months and has formed numerous bullish divergences, consistently signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator formed yet another bullish divergence, further indicating the likelihood of renewed growth.

Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3428
• S2 – 1.3367
• S3 – 1.3306

Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3489
• R2 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is attempting to resume its upward trend for 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the dollar, so we do not anticipate growth from the US currency. Therefore, long positions targeting 1.3550 and 1.3565 remain relevant for the near future as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered targeting levels of 1.3367 and 1.3306 on technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency shows corrections on a global scale, but for a strengthening trend, it needs signs of the conclusion of the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanation of Illustrations:

• Price Support and Resistance Levels: Thick red lines indicate levels where movement may stop and do not serve as sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: These are Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe, regarded as strong lines.
• Extremum Levels: Thin red lines indicate levels from which the price has previously bounced and serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: The net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. December 24. The Market Found Its Time

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The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which may seem paradoxical to many. It is worth recalling that last week the market was flooded with various important macroeconomic reports and fundamental events. However, we did not see any significant movements, particularly strong trending movements. Yet, as Christmas week began, typically characterized by a truncated market calendar, the European currency soared. We see nothing surprising in this fact, as we have been repeating throughout 2025: the US dollar will be declining. However, no one expected the market to suddenly become active right before the holidays.

This is precisely the essence of the currency market. When everyone expects a specific movement, the market stands still. When everyone prepares for holidays and vacations, the market shoots up. Remember, the market isn't an abstract concept; it is primarily made up of major players who can move prices with their trades. Since large players counter each other as well as retail traders, the market is constantly in a battle among different trader groups. Consequently, various types of manipulations and unexpected moves occur to catch opponents off guard and seize their liquidity. The euro is rising even though there were no significant events worldwide on Monday. But can we say that this movement is illogical? Especially after the failure of macroeconomic data in the US and the decline in inflation, which allows the Federal Reserve to continue its accommodative monetary policy?

The big players simply waited for the right moment. The pair spent the last six months in a flat range, and we have mentioned several times that a flat is not a random occurrence. A flat is a period of accumulation or distribution of trading positions, primarily by the major players. It is quite possible that the end of December marked the completion of this process, paving the way for the resumption of the 2025 trend. Throughout this time, the trend has not disappeared or ended. Therefore, it was simply necessary to wait for its resumption.

We advised buying the pair near the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830, at the 1.1500 level. Naturally, it is still too early to say the flat is 100% over, but in recent weeks, bulls have exerted increasingly strong pressure. A flat cannot last forever, and the fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable only for the dollar. The labor market is "in a coma," inflation is falling, and the Fed will reduce rates in 2026 (unlike the European Central Bank), while Jerome Powell will step down in four months.

On the daily timeframe, the price has reversed around the Senkou Span B line, another sign of continued upward movement.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days, as of December 24, is 51 pips, characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1726 and 1.1828 on Wednesday. The upper linear regression channel is directed upwards, but the flat is still ongoing on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice in October but then moved into the overbought area in early December. A downward pullback is possible and is already being observed.

Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1719
• S2 – 1.1658
• S3 – 1.1597

Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1780
• R2 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations

On Wednesday, traders may consider trading from the 1.1750-1.1760 area. A bounce from this level will make long positions relevant, targeting the 1.1800-1.1830 area. A consolidation below this range will lead to a decline towards the Senkou Span B line.

Explanation of Illustrations:

• Price Support and Resistance Levels: Thick red lines indicate levels where movement may stop and do not serve as sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: These are Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe, regarded as strong lines.
• Extremum Levels: Thin red lines indicate levels from which the price has previously bounced and serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: The net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on December 24. A New Upward Trend

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Analysis of GBP/USD on the 5-Minute Chart

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which seemed to stem from a market decision to actively buy the British currency at the beginning of the Christmas week, rather than any particular economic basis. On Monday, the UK GDP report for the third quarter was released, and it did not surprise anyone, while on Thursday, the US GDP report for the same period was a significant surprise. It was this US GDP report that halted the relentless rise of the British currency; however, we believe this pause will be short-lived. If the market is ready to buy the pair without apparent reasons, it suggests the long-term downward correction on the daily timeframe, which lasted almost 6 months, is likely over.

On Tuesday, the only positive aspect for the dollar was the GDP report. Two other reports—durable goods orders and industrial production—again showed results weaker than forecasts, further pressuring the dollar.

From a technical standpoint, a new ascending trendline was formed on the hourly timeframe. Thus, after a slight correction, upward movement may resume. There are no significant macroeconomic events expected in the US or the UK for the remainder of the week, and Thursday is a market holiday in honor of Christmas.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the last trading signal was generated on Monday when the price broke the 1.3437 level. Traders could have capitalized on this, and on Tuesday, the price came very close to the nearest target area of 1.3533-1.3548—though the US reports got in the way. Nonetheless, the trade could have been closed with a good profit even on Tuesday evening, despite the pullback.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound indicate that traders' sentiment has fluctuated considerably over the past few years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and are generally close to zero. Currently, these lines are moving apart, indicating a dominance of pound buyers. The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe (illustrated). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Federal Reserve is set to lower rates in the next 12 months, which will diminish demand for the dollar. According to the latest COT report (dated December 9) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 8,000 BUY contracts and 3,400 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week.

In 2025, the pound has risen significantly, but it is essential to understand that this is due to Trump's policies. Once this factor is neutralized, the dollar may begin to appreciate, but when this will happen is uncertain. Regardless of whether the net position for the pound is rising or falling, the trend for the dollar is invariably downward, usually at a faster pace.

Analysis of GBP/USD on the 1-Hour Chart

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has exited the sideways channel where it spent the week and has begun the formation of a new upward trend. We believe that the British pound's growth will continue in the medium term regardless of local macroeconomic and fundamental factors. The trend for the pound remains bullish across nearly all timeframes.

For December 24, we highlight the following significant levels: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B (1.3369) and Kijun-sen (1.3417) lines may also provide signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to break-even when the price advances by 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK or the US. The upward movement could continue, but new buying signals are needed. Volatility remains low, but there is at least a noticeable good trend movement now.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider selling if the price bounces off the 1.3533-1.3548 area with a target of 1.3437. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the 1.3533-1.3548 area, targeting 1.3615, or on a bounce from the 1.3437 level.

Explanation of Illustrations:

• Price Support and Resistance Levels: Thick red lines indicate levels where movement may stop. They do not serve as sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: These are Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are regarded as strong lines.
• Extremum Levels: Thin red lines indicate levels from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: The net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on December 24. Bullish Breakout Stopped at the Most Inopportune Moment

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Analysis of EUR/USD on the 5-Minute Chart

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, building on Monday's gains. It is worth noting that there were no interesting events in the Eurozone or the US during the first trading day of the week. Nevertheless, the European currency rose sharply, and we see nothing surprising in this. Firstly, the pair remains within the range of 1.1400-1.1830, and movements within a flat can be completely arbitrary, not just from one boundary to another. Secondly, any rise in the euro and fall in the dollar is considered logical and expected, as the global fundamental backdrop remains unfavorable for the US currency, while the mid-term outlook remains bullish.

However, on Tuesday, the bulls' attempts to break out of the sideways channel after six months of confinement were unexpectedly halted by US reports. Specifically, by just one report—the GDP for the third quarter. The US economy grew by 4.3% in its second estimate, which probably surprised everyone. However, two other reports (on durable goods orders and industrial production) fell short, and thus the dollar's triumph was short-lived. The price again bounced off the upper boundary of the sideways channel, but we do not doubt that the euro will soon break free.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the only trading signal was formed on Monday. The price broke the 1.1750-1.1760 area, allowing for long positions. The upward movement continued on Tuesday until the US GDP report was released, prompting traders to close their long positions after this release.

COT Report

The latest COT report was released last week and is dated December 9. As seen in the illustration above, the net position of non-commercial traders has been bullish for a long time, and bears struggled to gain an advantage at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office for the second time, the dollar has only been declining. We can't say that the fall of the US currency will continue with 100% certainty, but the current developments in the world suggest this scenario.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the European currency, while there remain sufficient factors for the weakening of the American one. The global downward trend is still ongoing, but what does it matter where the price has moved over the last 17 years? The dollar could rise if the global fundamental scenario changes, but currently, there are no signs that this will happen.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance of a bullish trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions among the "Non-commercial" group increased by 18,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 11,900. Consequently, the net position increased by 30,300 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD on the 1-Hour Chart

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend. The upper line of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830 has effectively been tested, and we can now observe a technical pullback, as the flat remains intact on the daily timeframe. However, the 1.1750-1.1760 area is preventing the pair from moving lower, indicating that bulls may attempt another breakout from the sideways channel at any moment.

For December 24, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1710) and Kijun-sen line (1.1753). The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss orders to break even if the price has moved in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Wednesday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone and the US, but considering the festive mood in the market, we would not be surprised to see a new attempt to break through the 1.1800-1.1830 levels.

Trading Recommendations:

On Wednesday, traders may consider trading from the 1.1750-1.1760 area. A bounce from this price will make long positions relevant, targeting the 1.1800-1.1830 area. A consolidation below this area will lead to a decline towards the Senkou Span B line.

Explanation of Illustrations:

• Price Support and Resistance Levels: Thick red lines indicate levels where movement may stop. They do not serve as sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: These are Ichimoku indicator lines moved to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are regarded as strong lines.
• Extremum Levels: Thin red lines indicate levels from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: The net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. The AUD/JPY Cross is Preparing for Growth

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The AUD/JPY exchange rate is facing difficulties in further growth as the Japanese yen gains support amid possible intervention measures from Japanese authorities. Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, stated on Monday that she has the authority to respond to excessive fluctuations in the yen.

These comments followed remarks from Atsushi Mimura, head of currency operations in Japan, who emphasized that officials would take appropriate measures to combat excessive exchange rate volatility and expressed concern about one-sided, sharp market movements.

The yen also received moderate support following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's statement that public debt remains high and that she is considering reducing new bond issuance in the budget for fiscal year 2026. Such a reduction could help stabilize or even raise yields on Japanese government bonds, narrowing the yield gap with foreign markets and providing support for the currency.

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However, this support is unlikely to be significant without concrete fiscal measures or changes in the Bank of Japan's policies. Takaichi stressed that responsible fiscal policy does not mean uncontrolled increases in debt or tax cuts.

Regarding the AUD/JPY exchange rate, growth is possible amid positive sentiment following the publication of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) minutes from its December monetary policy meeting. The document notes that board members are increasingly uncertain about the need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, as signs of more resilient inflationary pressures than previously expected are emerging.

RBA representatives highlighted that monetary policy will be evaluated at future meetings. They also discussed whether interest rates will need to be raised at some point in 2026, expressing the view that a bit more time is needed to assess inflation's sustainability.

From a technical perspective, multiple bounces off the upward trend from the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart, which have persisted for several weeks, favor the bulls. In addition, the oscillators on this chart are positive, further confirming the bullish sentiment. On the daily chart, oscillators are also positive, approaching overbought territory, indicating some consolidation. Nevertheless, the pair's path of least resistance remains upward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. The Japanese Yen Strengthens for the Second Consecutive Day

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For the second consecutive day, the Japanese yen has strengthened against the weakening US dollar. However, the likelihood of a significant weakening of the yen seems unlikely amidst the overall decline of the US dollar.

The tightening intervention policy proposed by Japan's Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, continues to support the Japanese currency.

Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions could further enhance the Japanese yen's status as a safe-haven asset, limiting the recovery of the USD/JPY pair. At the same time, the Bank of Japan has left the door open to tightening monetary policy. This development sharply contrasts with expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026, keeping the dollar close to a two-week low and thereby creating conditions for the yen to appreciate.

Katayama emphasized that the country's authorities are ready to take decisive action against excessive speculative movements that are not supported by economic foundations.

This stance followed a warning from Atsushi Mimura, head of currency operations in Japan, on Monday, calling for action amid the yen's sharp decline.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to rise: the escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela, the protracted conflict in Ukraine, and renewed tensions between Israel and Iran—all of these intensify pressure on global markets. These events have escalated demand for safe-haven assets, favoring a stronger Japanese yen, which has risen against the dollar for two consecutive days.

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high amid expectations of further BOJ interest rate hikes, following the central bank's rate hike last Friday to the highest level in 30 years.

In contrast, market participants are pricing in the likelihood of two more Fed rate cuts in 2026, putting pressure on the dollar and bolstering sentiment toward the Japanese yen.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggests that the new Fed chair may abandon the current restructuring strategy and change the approach to inflation policy and communication, which would increase uncertainty and add pressure on the dollar.

From a technical perspective, the price drop below the round levels of 156.00 and 157.70 favored the bears; however, prices stayed above the 100 and 200 SMA on the 4-hour chart, preventing the bears from taking control.

It is also worth noting that the oscillators on the daily chart are positive, and the nearest resistance for the pair is the round level of 157.00The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Fed is Not in a Rush to Make Decisions

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The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to waiting for the next batch of economic data before making any decisions on monetary policy. The next meeting of the US central bank is scheduled for January 28, and by that time, new reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will be released. This trio of reports will determine the FOMC's decision on interest rates.

In my view, the Fed may opt for a fourth consecutive easing in January, which would undoubtedly weigh on the US dollar. The November labor market data do not allow for conclusions about recovery. The unemployment rate is rising, and the number of jobs created is too low to halt the increase in unemployment and announce a recovery in the labor market. Alongside this, inflation has begun to decline, though it may be a one-off, as many retailers ran promotions, discounts, and sales during November amid "Black Friday." However, it is worth acknowledging that the November data block is a clear indication that the current easing is insufficient.

At the same time, Jerome Powell emphasized at the last Fed meeting the need to pause and carefully review all economic reports. He reminded the markets that the effects of monetary policy are not felt immediately. Powell made this statement before the latest data block was released, but I believe he anticipated less-than-flattering data.

His colleague, "dove" Christopher Waller, also supported the need to continue easing, but after a short pause. Waller stated that the current interest rate is 1% above the "neutral zone," but there is no need to rush into easing. According to Waller, haste in this matter is inappropriate, but stopping at current levels is not an option.

Based on all of the above, I am confident that the easing cycle will continue next year, but the Fed's January decision will depend entirely on the December data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation. If it is deemed appropriate to conduct a fourth consecutive rate cut, I believe that decision will be made.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US dollar. The targets for the current section of the trend may extend up to the 25 level. The current upward wave formation is beginning to develop, and it is hoped that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave set, which is part of a global wave 5. In this case, growth is expected with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% according to Fibonacci.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I anticipated the formation of wave 3 or c with targets located around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which corresponds to 76.4% and 61.8% according to Fibonacci. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is continuing its formation, and the fourth attempt is underway to break the 1.3450 mark, corresponding to 61.8% according to Fibonacci. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often bring changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

One Should Not Take Every Word of Central Bank Officials Literally

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In recent weeks, "hawkish" expectations regarding the European Central Bank's monetary policy for 2026 have been building in the market. Where did these expectations come from, considering the ECB recently concluded its rate-cutting cycle? In early December, one of the governors, Isabel Schnabel, stated that she did not rule out a rate hike next year. As soon as the market heard such a statement, it began to anticipate a tightening of monetary policy. Is this approach valid?

In my opinion, no. Schnabel merely allowed for the possibility of a rate hike under certain circumstances. It's no secret that any central bank is prepared to use its tools if economic circumstances change. Therefore, there are no hints or implications in Schnabel's words. The ECB governor simply indicated that such a scenario cannot be ruled out.

This week, Schnabel felt it necessary to clarify that she did not mean a rate hike in the foreseeable future. On the contrary, she reassured markets that monetary policy would remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. It's no secret that the ECB is, in fact, closer than other central banks to the first policy tightening in a long time, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to continue easing in 2026. But that does not mean that the ECB will necessarily raise rates.

It is important to remember that the key indicator currently influencing the ECB's decisions is inflation. If inflation begins to accelerate, policy tightening will become possible. If inflation continues to decline, a new round of easing will be required. Currently, inflation is hovering around the ECB's target level, and it is very difficult to say which direction it will take next year.

Therefore, I advise operating under the scenario where rates will not change at least until the summer. Consequently, the Euro may gain market support only against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, as it has for much of 2025. The Fed will continue its easing cycle, which is a key factor in the growth of the Euro and other currencies.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US dollar. The targets for the current section of the trend may extend up to the 25 level. The current upward wave formation is beginning to develop, and it is hoped that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave set, which is part of a global wave 5. In this case, growth is expected with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% according to Fibonacci.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I anticipated the formation of wave 3 or c with targets located around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which corresponds to 76.4% and 61.8% according to Fibonacci. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is continuing its formation, and the fourth attempt is underway to break the 1.3450 mark, corresponding to 61.8% according to Fibonacci. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often bring changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
3. There is no 100% certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.