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USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 15th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.28 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, losses were recorded on the trade, as the dollar failed to rise.

Given the current macroeconomic environment, investors and traders will continue to closely monitor every economic indicator that can shed light on the state of the U.S. economy. The Empire Manufacturing Index, which reflects manufacturing activity in New York State, is one such indicator. A drop in this index below the expected level may indicate a slowdown in growth in the manufacturing sector, which usually has a negative impact on the U.S. currency. The NAHB Housing Market Index is another important indicator that reflects builders' sentiment and, consequently, the overall condition of the real estate market. A decline in this index may point to weakening demand for new homes, which, in turn, may put pressure on economic growth. A speech by John Williams, a member of the Federal Open Market Committee, adds an additional level of significance to today's economic events. His comments on the current economic situation and the outlook for monetary policy may have a significant impact on market sentiment.

Weak data from the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB index, combined with dovish rhetoric from Williams, could indeed trigger a new wave of dollar declines against the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 155.25 (green line on the chart), with a target rise to the 155.66 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.66, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). A rise in the pair can be expected only after a hawkish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 155.01 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 155.25 and 155.66 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 155.01 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.62 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only in the case of dovish rhetoric. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 155.25 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.01 and 154.62 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 15th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3371 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points.

The absence of UK data supported the pound in the first half of the day. However, the euphoria was short-lived. The strengthening of the British currency encountered a number of restraining factors, including ongoing uncertainty regarding economic prospects and expectations of further steps from the Bank of England. Investors are also exercising caution while assessing the potential impact of political instability on the country's economy.

Attention then shifts to reports on the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index. Shortly after their release, a speech by FOMC member John Williams will take place. Weak data could trigger a new wave of growth in GBP/USD. Poor readings from the Empire Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index may spark concerns about a slowdown in U.S. economic growth. This, in turn, would increase pressure on the U.S. dollar and create favorable conditions for strengthening the British pound. However, it should be taken into account that the market may react differently. Strong manufacturing and housing market data, on the contrary, would strengthen the dollar and put pressure on GBP/USD. Thus, the key factor will be not only the absolute values of the published data, but also how well they match market expectations.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3387 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.3405 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3405, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Growth in the pound today can be expected only in the case of a dovish stance by the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3371 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3387 and 1.3405 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3371 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3355 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pound may return today in the case of a hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3387 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3371 and 1.3355 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 15th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1745 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Eurozone industrial production volume data came out above economists' forecasts. However, the market seemed more focused on the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank and expectations regarding the future course of monetary policy. Given the recent weak industrial indicators and high inflation in this sector, the report slightly reassured investors who are concerned about the future of the eurozone's manufacturing industry. Nevertheless, U.S. tariff policy, unresolved disputes between EU member states, and high energy prices continue to create an atmosphere of uncertainty.

Later today in the U.S., data on the Empire State Manufacturing Index and the NAHB Housing Market Index will be released. In addition, a public speech by FOMC member John Williams is scheduled. The release of the Empire Manufacturing data will make it possible to assess the state of affairs in the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above expectations indicates an increase in manufacturing activity, which usually has a positive impact on the economy and may strengthen the U.S. dollar. The NAHB Housing Market Index, which reflects builders' opinions on the current state of the real estate market, is also important. This indicator is a leading signal of activity in the construction sector and may point to changes in new home construction volumes, mortgage demand, and real estate prices. Positive NAHB data indicate a strong housing market.

The speech by FOMC member John Williams will be closely monitored by investors, as his remarks may shed light on future U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Markets will look for clues regarding the Fed's plans for interest rates, the quantitative easing program that began a couple of days ago, and the overall monetary policy strategy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the level around 1.1752 (green line on the chart), with a target rise to the 1.1775 level. At 1.1775, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected as part of the continuation of the bullish market.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1727 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reverse upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1752 and 1.1775 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1727 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1701 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today only in the event of a very hawkish stance from Fed representatives. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1752 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reverse downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1727 and 1.1701 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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At the start of the new week today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to attract buyers, although it lacks bullish confidence, despite holding above the key support levels of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA).

The U.S. dollar failed to extend its modest rebound from a more-than-two-month low on Friday and remains the key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. Dollar bulls have been reluctant to open new long positions amid expectations of further easing of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy. Despite the Fed's cautious hints last week, traders continue to price in the possibility of two rate cuts next year, as signs of weakening in the labor market become increasingly evident. In addition, the prospect of appointing a Trump-loyal Fed chair restrains significant gains in the dollar and helps limit downside pressure on GBP/USD. Ahead of key macroeconomic releases this week and central bank–related events, market participants remain cautious.

This week, the focus will be on UK employment data to be released on Tuesday, as well as the U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. These will be followed by UK inflation data on Wednesday and the Bank of England's monetary policy decision on Thursday, which will have a significant impact on the movement of the British pound. In addition, the release of U.S. consumer inflation data on Thursday could determine the short-term direction of GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, prices remain above the 100-day and 200-day SMAs, approaching resistance at the psychological 1.3400 level. Above this level, the next resistance is seen at 1.3440. A break above it would open the way toward the round-number level of 1.3500.

If the pair falls below the 100-day simple moving average, the nearest key support would be the 200-day SMA, below which prices could accelerate their decline toward the 1.3300 level. However, as long as oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 15, 2025

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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718, while also rebounding from it. This rebound allows traders to expect a continuation of the rise toward the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% – 1.1795. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1718 would favor the U.S. dollar and a modest decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the low of the previous wave, while the latest upward wave (which is still forming) has broken the previous high. Thus, the trend has officially shifted to bullish. It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls have regained confidence and resumed their attacks with renewed strength. The Fed's easing of monetary policy supports further growth of the European currency, and the ECB is unlikely to create any problems for the euro in the near term.

On Friday, the news background was virtually absent, but traders were not particularly upset and simply took the day off. Trading activity was at a minimum, and it is unlikely to be higher today. The news calendar is almost empty on Monday as well, but throughout the week traders will have enough information to trade. I will note only the most important events. First and foremost are U.S. economic data on unemployment, the labor market, and inflation. Second is the European Central Bank meeting. The ECB meeting is unlikely to bring any surprises, so the main focus will be on the U.S. reports mentioned above. These reports will not be released on the same day, so market activity may remain high for most of the week. Of course, the direction of the EUR/USD pair will depend on the reports themselves, both in the U.S. and in the euro area. I do not venture to predict in advance who will attack more aggressively this week—bulls or bears.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the next Fibonacci level of 0.0% – 1.1829. A consolidation of the pair below the 1.1649–1.1680 level would again favor the U.S. currency and a modest decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional players opened 8,041 long positions and closed 17,377 short positions. COT reports have resumed publication after the shutdown, but for now the data being released are already outdated—covering October and November. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long contracts held by speculators now stands at 243,000, while short positions total 145,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they could cause numerous problems of a long-term and structural nature for the U.S. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of Fed independence under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation expected in May next year.

News calendar for the U.S. and the euro area:

Euro area – Change in industrial production volumes (10:00 UTC).

On December 15, the economic calendar contains just one entry that does not generate much interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be weak and limited to the morning.

EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:

Selling the pair may become possible today after a close below the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1656. Buy trades could be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level, and today they can be kept open with targets at 1.1795–1.1802.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 15, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday pulled back to the support level of 1.3352–1.3362 after rebounding from the 1.3425 level on Thursday evening. Today, a consolidation of quotes below this level would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the next corrective level of 61.8% – 1.3294. A rebound of the pair from the 1.3352–1.3362 level would favor the British pound and the resumption of the bullish trend toward the 1.3425 level.

The wave picture turned bullish two weeks ago. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend currently remains bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully worked it off, while the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to continue attacking, but their positions are currently better than those of the bears. The completion of the bullish trend can only be confirmed below the 1.3294 level.

There was no news background on Friday, and traders used the "newsless time" for a corrective pullback. No news is expected today either, unlike the period from Tuesday to Friday. Thus, today traders can rest a bit more before the real show begins. Let me remind you that this week the UK will hold a Bank of England meeting, and reports on unemployment, inflation, and business activity will be released. In the U.S., the FOMC meeting has already taken place, but this week reports on unemployment, inflation, and the labor market will be published, which are of even greater importance to traders than the corresponding UK reports. Traders have not seen labor market data for more than two months, so it is sure to leave a strong impression on their mindset and trading tactics in the near term. I would also like to note that the New Year is approaching; traders may begin to leave the market (not this week), but this does not necessarily mean weaker moves. Trading volumes will decline, but the strength of movements depends on the imbalance between bulls and bears. In a "holiday market," it is easier to create an advantage than under normal conditions.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose to the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435. A rebound of quotes from this level favored the U.S. dollar and the start of a decline toward the 1.3140 level. A consolidation of the pair above 1.3435 would allow expectations of further growth toward the Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category did not change over the last reporting week, but this reporting week was a month ago—November 18. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 766, while the number of short positions decreased by 981. The gap between the number of long and short positions currently stands at approximately 53,000 versus 132,000. As we can see, bears dominated a month ago, but the situation may now be completely different. And in the euro, the situation was the exact opposite even a month ago. Thus, I do not believe that the market for the pound is currently bearish.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency does enjoy demand from time to time, but I consider this a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy in order to halt the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure of this, as labor market statistics are still unavailable.

News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 15, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Sell positions could be opened after a rebound from the 1.3425 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3362. The target has been reached. New sell positions can be considered after a close below the 1.3352–1.3362 level, with a target of 1.3294. Buy positions may be considered today after a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 zone on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.

Fibonacci level grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Not everyone at the Fed agrees with rate cuts in the U.S.

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The U.S. dollar continues to face difficulties that are entirely related to the Federal Reserve's dovish stance at the end of this year. However, not all of its representatives share this approach.

Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said late last week that he expects more interest rate cuts in 2026 than many of his colleagues, but expressed disagreement with a possible rate cut in December, as he would like to wait for additional inflation data.

"I am not hawkish on interest rates for next year," Goolsbee said on Friday. "I'm one of the more optimistic people about how much rates could come down next year."

Such statements, even if they still sound isolated for now, add an element of uncertainty to financial markets. Investors, who are accustomed to more or less consistent Fed rhetoric, are now forced to factor in the possibility of disagreements within the regulator. This undoubtedly puts pressure on the dollar, since a unified policy is always perceived by the market as a sign of stability and predictability. The overall macroeconomic situation in the United States also plays a role. At present, unemployment indicators require much closer attention than inflation. And although the Fed is doing everything it can to convince the market that it has the situation under control, each new consumer price index report is met with heightened attention and often triggers volatility in the currency market.

Let me remind you that important reports on the U.S. labor market and inflation will be published this week, which had not been released for quite some time due to the government shutdown.

Comments from the head of the Chicago Fed came immediately after his vote against an interest rate cut on Wednesday, marking his first dissent since assuming the role of central bank president in 2023. This dissent coincided with the position of Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, who also voted against the previous rate cut in October and likewise expressed disagreement with last week's decision.

"Given that inflation has been above our target for four and a half years, and that further progress has stalled for several months, I felt it was more prudent to wait for additional information. Almost all business owners and consumers we have spoken with recently cite prices as their main concern," his statement said.

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson took a more dovish stance on Friday, saying she remains more concerned about weakness in the labor market than about the risks of rising inflation. Her counterpart, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, by contrast, said she would prefer somewhat tighter interest rates to further pressure inflation, which remains too high.

In his statement, Goolsbee also noted that inflation data received before the government shutdown in October and November reinforced his concerns about cutting interest rates in the near future. "Before the data stopped coming in, there were some worrying indicators," Goolsbee said. "Fortunately, over the next few months we will receive important information about these risks, and hopefully this will allow us to say with confidence that we are on a path back to 2% inflation."

As for the current technical picture in EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to take the 1.1750 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1780. From there, it would be possible to climb to 1.1820, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the high at 1.1855. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1715 level. If there is no activity there, it would be advisable to wait for a retest of the low at 1.1685 or to open long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current technical picture in GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3375. Only this will allow them to target 1.3405, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.3434 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, bears will try to take control of 1.3340. If they succeed, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3320, with the prospect of a move to 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Buyers of the U.S. dollar were not very convinced by the statements

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Last Friday, the dollar continued to face difficulties in pairs with risk assets, as buyers were not very convinced by the statements made by representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

According to comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack, it is clear that she would prefer somewhat tighter interest rates to further put pressure on inflation, which remains too high. "Right now our policy is close to neutral," Hammack said on Friday during an event in Cincinnati. "I would prefer to take a somewhat more restrictive stance in order to continue exerting pressure on the inflation component of the central bank's mandate," she added.

However, despite such statements, the market appears to have already priced in a significant portion of the expected change in monetary policy. Investors are likely assessing the risks associated with overly aggressive rate hikes and believe that the Fed will be forced to further ease its stance in the coming months, which is reflected in the weakness of the U.S. dollar. This skepticism toward the Fed's hawkish rhetoric is fueled by recent economic data pointing to problems in the labor market. Taking these factors into account, market participants may have found Hammack's words less convincing than expected, which explains the limited reaction in currency rates.

Let me remind you that last week Fed officials cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, although a group of regional bank presidents made it clear that they opposed this cut. Two officials—Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid—formally expressed their disagreement with the move, stating that they preferred to keep rates unchanged. Six members of the Board of Governors also presented preliminary rate forecasts indicating that they, too, oppose a rate cut.

Hammack does not vote on monetary policy decisions this year but will participate in voting in 2026. When asked whether she supported this week's rate cut, she did not answer directly, saying instead that it is a difficult decision, as officials face pressure both from those within their mandate and from those affected by it.

Let me also remind you that last month the head of the Cleveland Fed warned that cutting interest rates could prolong the period during which inflation remains above the target level. Previously, she stated that she opposed a rate cut in October and saw no strong justification for cutting rates in December.

Hammack also noted that she is very much looking forward to key data on prices and employment, which should help clarify economic trends. Let me remind you that the release of this data was delayed due to the shutdown of the federal government.

As for the current technical picture in EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to take the 1.1750 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1780. From there, it would be possible to move up to 1.1820, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the high at 1.1855. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1715 level. If there is no one there, it would be advisable to wait for a renewal of the low at 1.1685 or to open long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current technical picture in GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3375. Only this will allow them to target 1.3405, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.3434 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3340. If they succeed, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the low at 1.3320, with the prospect of moving down to 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC crisis, gold bubble, and China's leap in AI

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Recent days have presented a true test for traders and investors, as global financial and technological markets have been engulfed in instability, reflecting a wide array of economic, political, and technological trends.

Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp correction, losing almost a third of its value and triggering a wave of liquidations, despite ongoing interest from institutional players. At the same time, gold is hitting multi-week highs amid the Fed's easing policies, raising concerns about overheating in the

precious metals market. In the technology sector, a new confrontation is rapidly unfolding as China reduces its lag behind the US in the race for leadership in artificial intelligence, showcasing its technological breakthroughs and substantial government support.

In this article, we will explore the interconnections between these events, highlight key market trends, and discuss how traders can capitalize on the current volatility.

Bitcoin's Instability: strong sell-off erases 2025 gains

A new wave of instability has hit the cryptocurrency market: on December 14, Bitcoin was trading around the $90,000 mark, having lost nearly 29% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. This decline is part of a protracted downward trend that has completely negated the annual growth and once again raised questions about the cryptocurrency's role as a store of value.

According to YCharts, the day closed at $90,257, symbolically underscoring how quickly the euphoria that gripped the digital market just two months ago has dissipated. Instead of growth prospects, we are witnessing volatility, mass liquidations, and new signs of vulnerability in digital assets.

In recent weeks, the market has experienced a series of significant liquidations, exacerbating the plight of investors. One of the key and most resonant events occurred on October 10 when news of US President Donald Trump's imposition of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports caused Bitcoin to plunge by 14%, settling around $105,000. At that time, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated, marking a historic crash for the cryptocurrency segment.

A new wave of forced sales swept through the market in December, resulting in the closure of more than $400 million in margin positions across major assets. Investors were caught off guard by this new reality, where market whales are forced to either sell or seek ways to strengthen their positions.

Amid the market catastrophe, humor resurfaced. Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor, known for his active support of Bitcoin, captured attention with a satirical image portraying him as a McDonald's employee with the caption " Will work for Bitcoin." The meme quickly went viral, prompting both support and criticism.

Last week, Strategy purchased another 10,624 bitcoins for approximately $963 million, bringing its total holdings to a substantial 660,624 coins. Additionally, the company has prepared a cash safety cushion of $1.44 billion—just in case dividend payouts and market risk mitigation are necessary.

Bitcoin's sharp drop to $90,000, accompanied by a wave of liquidations and unstable macroeconomic news, once again confirms that the cryptocurrency market operates under its own rules. Despite the deep correction, institutional players like Strategy continue to accumulate positions, demonstrating long-term faith in the potential of digital assets.

For traders, this may signal a strategic entry point. Typically, periods of high volatility open up a unique opportunity for short-term speculation and for establishing long-term investment positions at reduced prices.

Traders can benefit by utilizing tools such as leveraged trading, opening short or long positions, and using analytics to identify reversal points. Stop-losses and take-profits are especially effective in conditions of heightened volatility.

The trading instruments mentioned in this article, including Bitcoin, are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To capitalize on the fluctuating market, open a trading account with InstaForex now, and for more convenient trading, follow the markets in real time using the company's mobile app.

Who prevents Bitcoin's growth?

Despite a noticeable increase in interest from institutional investors and steady capital flows into Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the price of the leading digital currency remains stuck in a narrow range. As it turns out, this tense market dynamic is influenced not only by external factors but also by the strategic actions of Bitcoin holders themselves. One key factor is the active use of covered call strategies by long-term investors.

According to Jeff Park, Chief Investment Officer at ProCap BTC, it is the "OG investors"—those who have held Bitcoin for over ten years—who are playing a crucial role in shaping the market. They are widely employing the covered call strategy, selling call options on assets they already own. This allows them to profit from options premiums, but it inadvertently increases pressure on the spot market.

As of December 14, Bitcoin was trading at $90,257, approximately 10% lower than a year ago and only slightly off the previous day's price. The price has failed to break through the strong resistance in the $90,000 to $94,000 zone, despite positive inflows from ETFs and other major players.

The situation is exacerbated by the active role of the options market. According to analysts, approximately $23.8 billion in Bitcoin options will expire on December 26, encompassing both quarterly and annual contracts. The most significant positions are concentrated at two levels: put options priced at $85,000 covering 14,674 BTC, and call options at $100,000 covering 18,116 BTC. This concentration of positions creates what is known as the implied pressure from above and a supporting cushion from below, making price movement difficult in either direction.

Park emphasizes that as long as the whales continue to extract short-term profits by selling covered calls, the price dynamics of Bitcoin will remain unstable. Market makers, acting as counterparties to these call options, must hedge their risks by selling Bitcoin on the spot market. This results in increased supply and limited growth potential.

At present, Bitcoin remains under the influence of a complex market strategy employed by long-term holders. Despite institutional interest, the price is constrained by the mass selling of call options, which creates technical pressure on the market.

For traders, this situation presents opportunities. For instance, active trading within the $85,000 to $100,000 range could be quite profitable when utilizing derivatives. Combinations of strategies, including buying puts or selling calls, can also take advantage of market volatility. Furthermore, analyzing open interest in options allows traders to identify key resistance and support levels, making it ideal for medium-term speculation and risk hedging.

Gold Hits 7-week high: Market ignores bubble warnings

Amid the US Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates, gold has experienced a swift rise, reaching new seven-week highs. Despite concerns from leading global financial institutions regarding overheating conditions in the precious metals market, the metal maintains a confident upward trend. In this article, we will explore the reasons and consequences of this rally and discuss how traders can capitalize on the current situation.

Last week, gold prices reached $4,293 per ounce, and by Monday, spot gold was trading around $4,305, securing a weekly gain of over 2.6%. This surge was prompted by the Fed's third consecutive rate reduction of 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% – 3.75%.

The current situation has caused considerable resonance within the Federal Open Market Committee. The decision to lower rates was made amid significant dissent, with three committee members opposing it—an unprecedented occurrence in the past six years.

Another boost for gold's rise came from the weakening US dollar, which fell to an eight-week low. The decline in the American currency typically enhances gold's appeal as an alternative asset.

Despite the strong growth in precious metals, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), often referred to as the central bank for central banks, issued a sharp warning on December 8. The report notes that the simultaneous explosive growth of both gold and US stocks is being observed for the first time in 50 years, which is a potential sign of a bubble.

BIS economic advisor Hyun Song Shin emphasized the unusual behavior of gold in 2023, pointing out its similarity to highly speculative assets. Statistical models used by BIS are identifying bubble dynamics but cannot precisely indicate when a correction might occur.

While regulators are issuing warnings, investors are actively increasing their positions. In November, global gold ETFs recorded a net inflow of $5.2 billion—marking the sixth consecutive month of positive dynamics.

Following gold, silver is also experiencing strong growth: on December 12, the metal reached a price above $64 per ounce—an all-time record. Since the beginning of the year, silver has risen by over 100%.

Goldman Sachs maintains an optimistic outlook on gold's prospects, predicting a rise to $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. Experts highlight that gold's share in American investors' portfolios remains historically low, and even a slight increase in investments could significantly impact prices. Additionally, robust drivers remain in the form of central bank purchases and steadily increasing inflows into ETFs.

Key takeaways and how traders can profit:

1. Gold and other precious metals are displaying a powerful rally supported by interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and ongoing demand.

2. Despite concerns regarding a market bubble, investors are currently reluctant to lock in profits.

3. Disagreements within the Fed are creating additional uncertainty, which also fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

For traders, the current situation presents an excellent opportunity to profit from short-term price fluctuations or to build medium-term positions with an expectation of further growth.

All instruments discussed in this article are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To start profiting from price movements, open a trading account today. For added convenience, use the InstaForex mobile app—it is an easy way to stay one step ahead of the market.

China quickly catches up to US in AI race: DeepSeek breakthrough and government strategy

China is rapidly closing the technological gap with the US in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). Against the backdrop of intensifying rivalry between the two global economies, the Asian giant has made significant strides: over the past year, the productivity gap in AI models between China and the US has reduced by 4.5 times. Recent developments from Chinese companies, including the startup DeepSeek, are producing results comparable to cutting-edge solutions from OpenAI and Meta, thus shifting the balance in the global technology race.

At the end of December 2024, the Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled its latest language model, DeepSeek-V3, and by January 2025, it introduced the high-performance reasoning model R1. Both developments have been recognized by experts as comparable in performance to flagship AI systems from leading American tech companies, according to a recent analysis by the South China Morning Post.

The breakthrough from DeepSeek is particularly significant: back in January 2024, the difference in test scores between top AI models from China and the US was 103 points. However, by February 2025, this gap narrowed to just 23 points. Analysts view this leap as the beginning of a new phase in the competition between the powers.

Despite ongoing restrictions from the US blocking the export of advanced graphics processors and AI chips, Chinese companies are finding ways to circumvent resource shortages. This includes developing more energy-efficient and cost-effective methods for training models. For instance, the R1 model from DeepSeek achieved performance levels similar to OpenAI's o1, reportedly trained with far less computational power.

Government support in China plays a key role in this process. At the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2024 in Beijing, artificial intelligence was officially declared a national priority for 2026. The "AI Plus" program was launched to implement AI technologies in key economic sectors such as transportation, healthcare, and industry.

According to government sources, a 70% penetration of AI-based systems into major industries is expected by 2027. As noted by Zhong Xinlun, director of the AI Research Laboratory at the Chinese Center for Information Industry Development, current developments go beyond generative language models. They involve smart cities, autonomous vehicles, industrial robots, and next-generation software.

Simultaneously, major tech giants in the country, such as Alibaba and Baidu, have begun developing their own AI chips, reducing dependence on Western manufacturers, including Nvidia. China has also introduced a distributed network of AI data processing centers spanning 2,000 kilometers, boasting up to 98% efficiency compared to their American counterparts.

Nonetheless, the US retains a significant advantage in infrastructure. As of mid-2025, the US accounts for 74% of global AI computational power, while China only controls 14%. American companies also produce about 20 times more high-performance chips. However, experts believe that resource constraints may serve as a catalyst for innovation in China.

It is noteworthy that when OpenAI released ChatGPT in November 2022, China reacted swiftly: officials began requesting analytical summaries, and universities started developing prototypes. Although venture investors like Allen Zhu Xiaohu initially expressed skepticism about the profitability of AI startups in China, by the end of 2025, the situation had changed dramatically—the technological gap between the US and China is now measured in months rather than years.

Key takeaways:

1. China is rapidly narrowing the gap in AI development with the US thanks to robust innovations, government investments, and technological adaptations to export restrictions.

2. New approaches to energy-efficient AI training could prompt traders to reassess strategies and focus on Chinese tech companies.

3. The success of DeepSeek signals growing competition in the AI market, which may lead to volatility in the stocks of both Chinese and American tech developers.

How traders can leverage the situation:

1. Consider investing in Chinese tech companies (such as Alibaba and Baidu) that are focusing on developing their own AI chips.

2. Monitor American competitors (like Nvidia, Meta, and OpenAI) for the market's response to the rise of Chinese competition.

3. Utilize technical analysis tools to evaluate short-term fluctuations driven by news related to AI and develop corresponding trading strategies.

All trading instruments discussed in this article are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To start trading, open a trading account on the company's website. Additionally, you can download the InstaForex mobile app to stay updated on market news and respond quickly to any changes in the markets.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Ripple, Circle, and BitGo could become national trust banks in US

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Last week, there were some intriguing developments regarding several cryptocurrency companies.

It was revealed that the US banking regulator (OCC) has conditionally approved applications from Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Paxos, and Fidelity Digital Assets to obtain the status of national trust banks. This decision could significantly alter the landscape of the crypto industry in the US. Achieving national trust bank status opens up a range of advantages for these companies, including the ability to interact directly with the Federal Reserve and reduced regulatory costs. Additionally, it greatly enhances their credibility with both institutional and retail investors.

One key aspect is that a national trust bank can hold client assets according to stricter standards set by the federal government. This entails a higher level of security and protection against potential risks such as hacking and fraud. For Ripple, whose activities are particularly linked to XRP transactions in the banking sector, this could be a crucial step toward legitimizing and integrating into the traditional financial system.

Circle, behind the USDC stablecoin, will strengthen its market position and expand opportunities for integrating USDC into various financial services. BitGo, specializing in the storage of digital assets, will have the chance to provide its services to a broader range of clients, including large institutional investors. Paxos, known for its PAX stablecoin, will also reinforce its position as a reliable provider of cryptocurrency solutions.

Fidelity Digital Assets, a division of the giant Fidelity Investments, will be able to offer its clients a broader array of services related to digital assets, including custody, trading, and management. This OCC decision could serve as a vital step toward increased acceptance of cryptocurrencies by institutional investors and traditional financial institutions.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $90,800 level, which opens a direct path to $93,000, and from there, it would not be far to $95,000. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $97,300, and surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I anticipate buyers at the $88,100 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $85,800, with the further target being the $83,200 region.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,126 level opens a direct path to $3,233. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $3,349, and exceeding this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,023 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $2,924, with the further target being the $2,858 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

S&P 500 retreats as tech bubble loses air

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If anyone believes in symbols, now is the time to sell the S&P 500. Shares of Cisco, a leader among Internet companies in the 1990s, have returned to their record levels. Its collapse became emblematic of the dot-com bubble. Since then, the stock has struggled to recover, and only in 2025 did it find its moment again. The fundamental valuation of today's tech companies is as high as that of their predecessors. Will history repeat itself, causing the broad stock index to plunge into another wave of sell-offs?

S&P 500 Price-to-Forward Earnings Dynamics

Disappointing earnings reports from Broadcom and Oracle continue to stir investor sentiments and prompt exits from Big Tech. Moreover, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are recommending a shift toward sectors such as healthcare, industrials, and energy. They believe that tech giants will no longer drive the show.

In reality, the rotation of securities within investment portfolios is in full swing. Bank stocks have registered their third consecutive weekly gain, marking the longest winning streak since August. The KBW Bank Index has closed in the green in 13 of the last 15 trading sessions, rising by 29% since the beginning of the year compared to a 15% increase for the S&P 500.

S&P 500 and Bank Index Dynamics

Investors are anxiously observing the colossal expenses of tech companies and continue to draw parallels with the dot-com crisis. In the late 1990s, massive amounts—over $100 billion at the time—were invested in telecommunications networks. There was so much fiber optic cable that much of it went unused. A very similar story exists with today's data centers. Money flows freely, yet investment efficiency leaves much to be desired.

However, AI enthusiasts have their arguments. Tech giants can afford to pump money into the sector and are willing to do so. The successes of companies in creating new products inspire optimism. Goldman Sachs forecasts a 12% increase in corporate earnings for S&P 500 issuers in 2026 and a 10% increase in 2027. The bank estimates the contribution of AI at 0.4 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points, respectively. The fading negativity from tariffs will also contribute.

Thus, while the tech bubble has not burst, it is slowly deflating. The rotation of stocks in investment portfolios continues on the American market, with the banking sector showing the greatest successes. Yesterday's leaders, including the Magnificent Seven stocks, are actively being sold off, which is causing the broad stock index to retreat.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows prices falling below fair value at 6,850 and testing the upper dynamic support represented by the 5-day moving average. Purchases are recommended on rebounds from pivot levels at 6,770 and 6,750, as well as in the case of a return of the broad stock index above 6,850 and 6,900.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD: Another Southern Pullback—Should You Consider Selling?

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The Australian dollar started the new trading week on a negative note. This time, it was let down by China, which published relatively weak macroeconomic data today.

It's worth noting that last week, the Aussie came under pressure following a disappointing employment report. The total number of employed people in Australia unexpectedly decreased by more than 20,000, contrary to optimistic forecasts (most analysts had predicted a gain of 20,000 jobs). The structure of this component only exacerbated the situation: the full-time employment indicator plummeted to -56,500, while part-time employment increased by 35,000.

This is a negative signal, as full-time positions offer higher wages and better social security compared to temporary jobs. Therefore, the November result in this respect is unambiguously negative, even though the previous month saw the opposite picture: full-time employment exceeded part-time employment (the ratio being +55.3/-13.1 thousand).

The "headline" figure of the report did not disappoint, as the unemployment rate in Australia remained at 4.3% in November, the same as in October, while most analysts had predicted an increase to 4.4%.

The Australian dollar, paired with the greenback, reacted negatively to this release but managed to hold its ground, finishing Friday's trading within the 66 figure (specifically at 0.6654).

And this is concerning, as the US dollar index slightly recovered at the end of last week amid "moderately hawkish" statements from Federal Reserve representatives (Hammack and Goolsbee). They advocated maintaining a wait-and-see stance, citing the unacceptably high inflation rate. In particular, Cleveland Fed President Elizabeth Hammack stated that the US labor market is "gradually" cooling while inflation persists above the target level. In this context, she expressed confidence that the next Fed chair "will prioritize the inflation target." Notably, Hammack will gain voting rights in the Committee in 2026, so her comments supported the greenback. Moreover, other Fed representatives, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, echoed hawkish sentiments. He stated that the labor market is "moderately cooling," while inflation risks "raise serious concerns." He criticized the central bank's decision to lower rates at the December meeting, saying his own rate is "below the median forecast for 2026" (reminding that the Fed's updated median forecast in December anticipates just one round of rate cuts in the next year).

These hawkish signals from Goolsbee and Hammack supported the US dollar, allowing sellers of AUD/USD to take the initiative in the pair and reclaim some lost positions. However, as soon as the pair declined to the 0.6630 mark, the downward momentum faded, as traders took profits and did not aim for the 65 figure.

The Aussie's resilience is due to the divergence between the Fed's and the Reserve Bank of Australia's policies. Essentially, most members of the US central bank agree that they will continue to lower interest rates—the issue is only about the pace of monetary easing. In contrast, the RBA signaled the possibility of tightening monetary policy after its December meeting. According to RBA Governor Michele Bullock, there are only two options under discussion—maintaining the status quo or raising interest rates, with no talk of a rate cut. The disappointing labor market report in Australia has increased the chances of a wait-and-see stance, but the key role will be played by fourth-quarter inflation data, which will be released in January. This is the first factor. Secondly, one poor report does not constitute a trend. For instance, in the previous month (i.e., October), employment increased by 40,000, driven by full-time jobs.

In other words, selling the AUD/USD pair appears risky. The current fundamental backdrop does not favor the resumption of an upward trend, but there are no grounds for a sustained (this is the key word) downward movement at the moment.

Weak Chinese data drove today's downside momentum in AUD/USD. Specifically, industrial production in China rose by 4.8% in November, while most analysts had anticipated a larger increase of 5.0%. This indicator has been actively declining for the second consecutive month due to weak domestic demand. Retail sales were also disappointing, rising only 1.3% after a 2.9% increase in October. This indicator also came out in the red zone, as the forecast was set at 3.0%.

The released data put pressure on AUD/USD "in the moment." However, once market participants digest this release, the divergence between Fed and RBA policies will come to the forefront again, especially if key releases later this week (NFP and CPI) do not favor the greenback. Therefore, using the AUD/USD's downward momentum to open long positions makes sense, with an initial target of 0.6650 and a main target of 0.6700 (the upper Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

There is a significant opportunity for Platinum to strengthen on Monday, December 15, 2025.

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[Platinum]

With all technical conditions supporting the strengthening of Platinum, there is a wide opportunity for #PLF to strengthen today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 1856.0

2. Resistance. 1 : 1809.5

3. Pivot : 1755.5

4. Support. 1 : 1709.0

5. Support. 2 : 1655.0

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #PLF breaks above 1755.5, it has the potential to test the level at 1809.5.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 1809.5 is also breached, then there is potential to move toward 1856.0.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Platinum declines and breaks below 1655.0.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 1758.2

EMA(200): 1711.6

RSI(14) : 62.69

Economic News Release Agenda:

Later tonight, when the U.S. market session opens, the following economic data will be released:

US - Empire State Manufacturing Index - 20:30 WIB

US - NAHB Housing Market Index - 22:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Buyers continue to dominate XPD/USD on Monday, December 15, 2025.

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[XPD/USD]

With all technical conditions supporting the strengthening of XPD/USD, then the probability of strengthening will dominate the movement of XPD/USD throughout today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 1603.40

2. Resistance. 1 : 1561.36

3. Pivot : 1526.29

4. Support. 1 : 1484.25

5. Support. 2 : 1449.18

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If XPD/USD breaks above 1526.29, it has the potential to test the level at 1561.36.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 1561.36 is surpassed, there is an opportunity for XPD/USD to reach 1603.40.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of XPD/USD declines and closes below 1449.18.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 1519.66

EMA(200): 1503.91

RSI(14) : 53.60

Economic News Release Agenda:

Later tonight, when the U.S. market session opens, the following economic data will be released:

US - Empire State Manufacturing Index - 20:30 WIB

US - NAHB Housing Market Index - 22:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 15. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Deal Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price level at 155.85 coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the dollar. However, after a decline of 10 pips, the pressure eased at the end of the week.

The US dollar showed resilience against the Japanese yen at the end of last week amid cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials. These statements essentially kept the possibility of further monetary policy easing open, although the timing of the next easing has become unclear. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains in demand, as was evident during today's Asian session. The sharp decline in USD/JPY once again indicates the likelihood of the Bank of Japan tightening monetary policy this week, which could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan.

The market will continue to closely monitor any hints of changes in central banks' rhetoric. When market participants' expectations about central banks' future actions are so strong, even slight nuances in statements can lead to significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 155.28 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.66 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 155.66, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips back from that level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price level at 154.90 is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 155.28 and 155.66 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 154.90 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 154.50 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level. It is advisable to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price level at 155.28 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.90 and 154.50 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 15. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Deal Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price level at 1.3362 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair decreased by more than 17 pips. Long positions on the bounce from 1.3345 allowed for an additional profit of about 20 pips from the market.

The pound only slightly declined against the US dollar. This relative stability of the British currency can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the market has already partially priced in expectations regarding a further pause in the Bank of England's rate-cutting cycle, as high inflation in the UK continues to put pressure on the central bank, forcing it to maintain a tight monetary policy. Secondly, some decent economic data released recently has supported the pound.

Going forward, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair will be determined by several factors, including future decisions from the BoE and the Federal Reserve, macroeconomic data from both countries, and the geopolitical situation. It is important to remember that markets are influenced by news and participant sentiment, so investors should remain vigilant and consider all factors when making decisions.

Today, in the absence of UK macroeconomic data, participants in the GBP/USD market have the opportunity to resume upward momentum. With no economic reports being published from the United Kingdom, the market is free to speculate and potentially strengthen the British pound, especially if positive sentiment regarding risk assets on currency markets is maintained.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3371 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3396 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3396, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting strong growth for the pound is reasonable as the trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price level at 1.3353 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 1.3371 and 1.3396 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3353 level is broken (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3326 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level. Pound sellers will try to continue the pair's correction. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price level at 1.3371 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards opposite levels of 1.3353 and 1.3326 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 15. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Deal Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price level at 1.1736 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.

Statements from Federal Reserve officials at the end of last week did not support the US dollar, leaving the euro well-positioned for further gains. Overcoming significant resistance levels will allow the upward trend to continue today, as the overall picture suggests favorable conditions for further strengthening of risk assets.

Today, fresh data on the German wholesale price index and information on changes in industrial production volumes in the Eurozone for October will be released in the first half of the day. Data on industrial production is important for understanding the region's overall economic health. An increase in industrial production volumes will indicate an improvement in the Eurozone's economic situation, while a decrease will signal a slowdown in growth. Both indicators will be compared with analyst forecasts, and noticeable deviations may prompt fluctuations in the currency market. Traders will look for confirmation or refutation of current trends in the Eurozone's economy, and if positive dynamics persist, euro purchases may continue.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when it reaches around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1769. At point 1.1769, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro can only occur after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1727 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1769 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1727 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1701, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips from that level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the price level at 1.1745 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1727 and 1.1701 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 15: S&P 500 and NASDAQ end week with heavy losses

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On Friday, stock indices closed sharply lower. The S&P 500 fell by 1.07%, while the Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.69%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 1.51%.

Futures on US stock indices have risen slightly with the start of a new week after concerns about tech company profits and significant investments in AI prompted another sell-off on Wall Street last Friday. However, this rebound should be viewed with caution given the ongoing uncertainty regarding interest rates and the economic outlook. Investors remain concerned that the Federal Reserve may be slow to lower rates, especially if inflation does not continue to decrease steadily toward the target level.

Attention is now focused on upcoming economic data that may provide a clearer picture of the health of the US economy. Particularly important will be inflation and labor market data. Positive results could boost confidence that the economy can withstand pressures, while disappointing data could exacerbate recession fears.

The technology sector, which has recently seen a significant influx of funds, remains a key factor influencing market sentiment. Investors are closely monitoring earnings reports and overall company outlooks to assess the justification for high valuations and the potential for further growth. While the substantial investment in artificial intelligence is promising, it also raises concerns about the profitability of these investments and potential cannibalization of existing business models.

Global risk appetite is also declining amid skepticism regarding whether the tech stocks, which propelled global indices to record highs this year, can continue to justify their high valuations and aggressive investments in AI. Much of this investment reflects a long-term bet on technology, which may take years to yield significant commercial returns, heightening uncertainty in the short term.

It is clear that the Christmas rally cannot begin amidst new concerns about AI valuations.

From the recent sell-off of Nvidia Corp. shares to the drop in Oracle Corp. shares last week following news of rising AI expenses, along with deteriorating sentiment toward companies utilizing OpenAI, signs of skepticism are only intensifying.

In other market segments, gold has risen for the fifth consecutive day as risk-averse investors have abandoned their purchases. The price of the yellow metal has increased by more than 60% this year, and silver prices have more than doubled—both metals are demonstrating their best annual performance since 1979. Copper, zinc, and aluminum have also risen as investors refocus on prospects for a tighter market scenario in 2026.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,854. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,874. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,896, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,837. A break below that level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,819 and open the path to $6,801.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Trading in the Cryptocurrency Market on December 15

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Bitcoin fell back to around $87,500, but it once again saw strong buying interest, keeping the chances of a bullish BTC rally alive for the end of this year. Ethereum also remained above $3,000, which allows for hopeful sentiment, though these hopes are fading day by day.

Meanwhile, Strategy is expected to report new BTC purchases today. Yesterday, Michael Saylor published a BTC purchase tracker, after which Strategy typically reports BTC purchases the following day. It's worth noting that publicly traded companies that are actively buying Bitcoin now hold over 5% of its total supply on their balance sheets, with Strategy alone holding 3%.

Against the backdrop of a declining market, Tom Lee's BitMine from Fundstrat has also stated that it purchased an additional 14,959 ETH. The company now holds over 3% of the total ETH supply as well. This bold decision, made amid widespread panic, underscores the firm's confidence in Ethereum's long-term prospects. Acquiring such a significant amount of ETH during a market downturn demonstrates a strategic approach and a belief in the network's future. An investment exceeding 3% of the total issued volume of ETH positions BitMine as one of the largest holders, which undoubtedly influences market sentiment.

However, it is essential to remember that the cryptocurrency market remains volatile and unpredictable. Nevertheless, even in turbulent conditions, the actions of the aforementioned companies indicate the maturity and long-term potential of the crypto industry.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on any significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of a bullish market in the medium term, which has not disappeared.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $90,000, targeting a move to $91,300. At around $91,300, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin is also possible at the lower boundary of $89,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $90,000 and $91,300.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $89,100, targeting a decline to $88,100. At around $88,100, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin is possible at the upper boundary of $90,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $89,100 and $88,100.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,130, targeting a move to $3,191. At around $3,191, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum is also possible at the lower boundary of $3,101 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $3,130 and $3,191.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,101, targeting a decline to $3,043. At around $3,043, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum is possible at the upper boundary of $3,130 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $3,101 and $3,043.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 15

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The euro and the British pound maintain their prospects for further gains against the US dollar. The Japanese yen appreciated significantly today, as traders believe the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week.

Meanwhile, statements from Federal Reserve officials at the end of last week did not help the US dollar, so the chances of further growth in risk assets remain quite good. Traders are closely monitoring any signals that may indicate a change in the Fed's monetary policy, and in the absence of convincing arguments for maintaining a tight stance, the strengthening of risk assets may continue. Technical analysis also indicates potential for growth. The breaking of key resistance levels and the formation of upward trends signal strong buying pressure.

Today, in the first half of the day, data on Germany's wholesale price index for November and the changes in industrial production in the Eurozone for October are expected. Analysts and traders will closely examine these data, as they may provide valuable hints regarding the current state of the European economy.

The German wholesale price index, in particular, is an important indicator of inflationary pressure. If it shows an increase, this may heighten concerns about inflation in the Eurozone and push the European Central Bank toward a more cautious position. Meanwhile, data on Eurozone industrial production is essential for assessing the region's overall economic health. An increase in industrial production indicates strengthening of the economy, which is unlikely to be expected. However, a slowdown in growth may indicate risks of a weaker year-end.

As for the pound, there are no significant reports scheduled for the UK today, so buyers will have every chance of returning to a bullish market. The lack of economic news from the United Kingdom leaves the market room for speculation and a potential strengthening of the British pound, especially if overall sentiment in the currency markets remains favorable for risk assets. In the absence of domestic drivers, the GBP/USD rate will largely depend on external factors, including the dynamics of the US dollar, global economic trends, and geopolitical risks.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it's better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' forecasts, the Momentum strategy should be utilized.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For EUR/USD

• Buy on the breakout of 1.1748, which may lead to the euro rising toward 1.1777 and 1.1815;
• Sell on the breakout of 1.1725, which may lead to a decline toward 1.1710 and 1.1680;

For GBP/USD

• Buy on the breakout of 1.3374, which may lead to the pound rising toward 1.3402 and 1.3434;
• Sell on the breakout of 1.3343, which may lead to a decline toward 1.3316 and 1.3287;

For USD/JPY

• Buy on the breakout of 155.30, which may lead to the dollar rising toward 155.75 and 156.15;
• Sell on the breakout of 155.05, which may lead to dollar sell-offs toward 154.77 and 154.45;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For EUR/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1749 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1724 on a return to this level;

For GBP/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3380 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3345 on a return to this level;

For AUD/USD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 0.6660 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 0.6640 on a return to this level;

For USD/CAD

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3775 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3756 on a return to this level;

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 15? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for today. Essentially, the only notable report is the Eurozone industrial production report. It is not the most secondary report, but it is certainly far from the most important. If the reaction to the Federal Reserve meeting last week resulted in movements of 60-80 pips, what can we expect from the Eurozone's industrial production? We believe that this report will not significantly impact the EUR/USD pair today. The calendars of macroeconomic and fundamental events in the UK, EU, and US are empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Monday. In the US, representatives of the Fed's Monetary Committee, Stephen Miran and John Williams, will deliver speeches. There is no doubt that Miran will again emphasize the need to lower the key interest rate as soon as possible, but the last Fed meeting took place only a few days ago, so we are unlikely to hear anything new from committee officials. Jerome Powell has clearly outlined the future trajectory of rates—it's a pause while monitoring macroeconomic data. The "dovish wing" within the Fed remains in the minority, so we should not expect any near-term easing of US monetary policy.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may again lean towards growth, as upward trends continue to form in both cases. However, significant events are scheduled for the following days this week, so today may witness low volatility in a flat market. The European currency has the area of 1.1745-1.1754 to open positions around, while the British pound has the area of 1.3319-1.3331.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 15? Simple Tips and Deal Analysis for Beginners

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Deal Analysis for Friday:

1H Chart for GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair experienced a slight correction on Friday, within an upward trend that has been developing for several weeks. The macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent, as the market rested after the important Fed meeting and prepared for an even more significant week, during which the long-awaited reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will be published in the US, along with the inflation report, unemployment report, and the Bank of England meeting in the UK. As we can see, this week will feature not just important, but super-important events, so there are good grounds to expect higher volatility than what we've observed in recent weeks and even months. However, at the same time, predicting where the British pound and the dollar will end up by the end of the week is impossible—there will be too much news and events. Therefore, beginner traders should exercise caution this week and keep a close eye on the events calendar. The upward trend remains intact, but prices could potentially break the trend line this week.

5M Chart for GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Friday, as the price did not approach any of the levels. Thus, there were no grounds for beginners to open trades.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to build a local upward trend. As mentioned earlier, there are no global grounds for medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the North. Overall, we also anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could lead the pair to the 1.4000 mark in the next couple of months.

On Monday, beginner traders may consider new long positions if the price bounces off the trend line or the 1.3319-1.3331 area, targeting 1.3413-1.3421. If the specified area is broken, short positions will become relevant with a target of 1.3212.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can now consider the following levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. No interesting events are scheduled in the UK or the US for Monday; however, the rest of the week will feature plenty of significant events. Thus, Monday may see the market resting for another day, while we expect increased volatility and movements depending on the nature of incoming data starting Tuesday.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 15? Simple Tips and Deal Analysis for Beginners

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Deal Analysis for Friday:

1H Chart for EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and exclusively sideways on Friday. This market behavior is not surprising, as we see a prolonged upward trend on the hourly timeframe, while the daily timeframe remains in a flat range. Consequently, movements in general remain weak. Last week, on Wednesday and Thursday, we witnessed a notable rise in the pair, which was driven by significant events such as the FOMC meeting and its subsequent implications. During those two days, volatility inevitably increased. However, on Friday, we observed a return to the previous state. Once again, there were no movements in the market. This week, there will be many important macroeconomic events, so volatility may rise again. However, for traders, technical factors should currently take precedence – the same flat trend remains in effect. If the price fails to break above the 1.1800-1.1830 range (the upper line of the sideways channel), the flat will persist, and we will see a decline back to the lower boundary over the next few weeks.

5M Chart for EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Friday. The pair bounced twice from the area of 1.1745-1.1754, but it did so in the afternoon when it was already 100% clear that there would be no significant movements. Additionally, opening positions in full flat conditions just a few hours before the market closes for the weekend is not the best idea.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend formation, even after it breached the trendline last week. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the US dollar, so we expect further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro currency, as the flat trend on the daily timeframe persists, and a rebound from the lower boundary would reasonably suggest growth toward the higher boundary.

On Monday, beginner traders can trade from the area of 1.1745-1.1754. The two bounces from this area allow for opening short positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666. If the price consolidates above this area, long positions can be taken with a target of 1.1808.

On the 5-minute timeframe, traders should consider the following levels: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. Only one report is scheduled for Monday—the Eurozone industrial production report. Therefore, it is unlikely that volatility will be higher today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview: Weekly Preview. Bank of England Meeting May Halt Growth, but It's Complicated

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The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a slight pullback on Friday after rising on Wednesday and Thursday, but overall, we can draw similar conclusions as for the EUR/USD pair. The defining moments will take place next week, not the previous one. Firstly, this is due to the macroeconomic data coming from the US. Secondly, it is related to the Bank of England meeting. Unlike the European Central Bank, the BoE has not succeeded in bringing inflation down to its target level, which is nearly the same across central banks at 2%. Inflation in the UK is almost double the target level, and assessing the trend based on a single report is considered inappropriate. Yes, last month the consumer price index in the UK slowed to 3.6%, but that is just one month. Even if inflation does not increase further, it remains high, which does not suggest further easing of monetary policy.

However, the BoE, despite high inflation, is inclined towards easing monetary policy. This is due to a declining labor market, rising unemployment, and low economic growth. In our view, the BoE is following the Federal Reserve, nearly mimicking its actions and methods for addressing economic issues. Thus, in the US, we observe rate cuts amid rising inflation, and in the UK, we see rate cuts amid high inflation. If rates are being lowered, it is unlikely that consumer prices will slow down to 2% any time soon.

But we are more interested in how the British pound will react to the easing. The answer to this question is fairly straightforward—there will be a decline—but it is not that simple. The GBP/USD pair maintains a long-term upward trend. The pair has been correcting for five months and, from our perspective, has shown a much more substantial decline during this correction than it deserved. Even if the decline's magnitude is justified, the correction could be completed on the daily timeframe. If that is the case, then the British pound will continue to rise regardless. The BoE's dovish decision will not pose a problem for the British currency. The market may well trade against the fundamental backdrop. It is worth remembering that the US dollar performed well in October and November during the American "shutdown" and after two interest rate cuts by the Fed.

Thus, we believe that the British pound will continue to rise in any case. On the daily timeframe, the pair has secured itself above the important Senkou Span B line, indicating a break of the downward trend. During specific events or reports, the pound may fall; however, these will be corrections or pullbacks, no more. One of those pullbacks has already started after a "bearish" divergence and two CCI entries into the overbought region.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 69 pips, which is considered "average" for the pound/dollar pair. On Monday, December 15, we expect the pair to trade within a range bounded by 1.3300 and 1.3438. The upper linear regression channel is directed downward, but this is only due to a technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area 6 times in recent months and has formed several "bullish" divergences, consistently signaling a resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator formed yet another "bullish" divergence, but the week ended with two entries into the overbought zone and a "bearish" divergence. Conclusion: correction within an upward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3367
• S2 – 1.3306
• S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3428
• R2 – 1.3489
• R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Trump's policy will continue to put pressure on the dollar; therefore, we do not expect the American currency to grow. Consequently, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term while the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with targets at 1.3300 and 1.3245 based on technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency shows corrections (on a global scale), but for the trend to strengthen, it needs signs of resolution in the trade war or other positive global factors.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day based on current volatility metrics.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) signifies that a trend reversal to the opposite direction is imminent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview: Weekly Preview. Focus on CPI and NFP

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded much more calmly on Friday than on Wednesday and Thursday, as shown in the illustration below. The volatility on the last trading day of the previous week was a mere 31 pips. Essentially, we once again witnessed a complete lack of movement in the market. This is not surprising, as there were virtually no significant events on Friday, and traders had already fully adjusted to the Federal Reserve meeting results by Thursday. Moreover, it cannot be said that volatility was excessively high on Wednesday and Thursday; yes, it was above average, but not extraordinarily so. Hence, we reiterate that market activity is currently quite low.

Can anything change during the current week? Theoretically, yes, as we believe that the reports on unemployment, the labor market, and inflation in the US are now even more critical than the Fed meeting. It's simple: the Fed made its decision without any substantial grounds for either raising or lowering the key rate. As of December 10, the US central bank had received no new data. Therefore, the reports released this week will determine the direction of the Fed's monetary policy over the next few months. The decision to cut rates was made in December, but the market reacted cautiously, as it does not understand the direction of future policy. This was a decision made in thin air. It is evident that the US labor market is not in the best condition, but reliable assessments of its state cannot be drawn from the JOLTs and ADP reports.

Thus, the macroeconomic data this week will indicate the future path for the dollar, although we believe it is already quite obvious without this information. What else is interesting coming up over the next five trading days? In the Eurozone, data will be published on industrial production, business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors, and inflation. These are the most important reports, but there are many secondary ones as well. The icing on the cake will be the European Central Bank meeting, although it may not be the largest, most beautiful, or sweetest one. As mentioned multiple times, the ECB has achieved its inflation target, so there is no need to change the parameters of monetary policy.

However, interesting information could still emerge. For instance, Christine Lagarde might suggest that the central bank may raise the key rate once or several times in the next year. If this happens, the euro could rise more rapidly, though even without a "hawkish" stance from the ECB, there are plenty of factors supporting further growth in the EUR/USD pair. Even a relatively "neutral" stance from the Fed for the next year is unlikely to save the dollar. From a technical perspective, the upward trend remains intact. From a fundamental perspective, almost all factors are against the dollar. We anticipate the dollar strengthening only when the situation shifts in its favor.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of December 15 has been 58 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1682 and 1.1798 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel is pointing downward, signaling a bearish trend, but the daily timeframe continues to show a flat trend. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice in October but visited the overbought area last week. A downward correction is possible.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1719
• S2 – 1.1688
• S3 – 1.1658

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1749
• R2 – 1.1780

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is above the moving average, maintaining an upward trend across all higher timeframes, while the daily timeframe has been flat for several months. The global fundamental backdrop remains crucial for the market and negative for the dollar. Over the last six months, the dollar has shown weak growth, confined to a sideways channel. There is no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening. If the price is below the moving average, traders could consider small shorts with targets at 1.1627 and 1.1597 based purely on technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1798 and 1.1820 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe).

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help identify the current trend. If both are directed in one direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will operate over the next day based on current volatility metrics.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) signifies that a trend reversal to the opposite direction is imminent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.