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Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on March 25: The Roller Coaster Continues

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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to move both upward and downward on Monday. We can't say that these movements were triggered by macroeconomic data, because they weren't. The UK's business activity indices were just as contradictory as the European, German, and U.S. figures. In any case, the pound began rising in the first half of the day well before those reports were released, and began falling in the second half of the day long before the U.S. data came out. Therefore, there's no correlation.

Like the euro, the British pound continues a sluggish, weak, and reluctant correction. The price barely managed to consolidate below the ascending channel, and just slightly broke below the Ichimoku indicator lines. From a technical standpoint, further decline is completely justified. Looking at the entire recent rise of the British currency, this correction seems even more logical. On the daily timeframe, there are simply no other scenarios. And on the monthly chart, the 16-year downtrend continues to form. The only problem is that the market doesn't want to buy the U.S. dollar—and that's solely due to Donald Trump's policy actions.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday. First, the price broke through the Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines from bottom to top, and then from top to bottom. In the first case, the move in the right direction didn't even reach 20 pips. In the second case, it reached about 20. Thus, the second short trade could at best offset the loss from the first long trade. Volatility was again low, so it would have been difficult to profit from Monday's session regardless.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has constantly changed in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, intersect frequently and are mainly close to the zero level. They are also near each other, indicating that the number of long and short positions is roughly equal.

On the weekly chart, the price first broke the 1.3154 level and then dropped to the trendline, which it successfully breached. Breaking the trendline suggests that the pound is likely to continue falling. However, we should note a rebound from the second-to-last local low on the weekly chart. We may be dealing with a flat market.

According to the latest COT report on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 1,100 buy contracts and 900 sell contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders saw little change over the week.

The current fundamental backdrop does not support long-term buying of the pound, and the currency has a real possibility of continuing its global downward trend. The recent sharp increase in the pound's value can be attributed solely to Donald Trump's policies.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

GBP/USD has started a downward trend on the hourly timeframe, though the decline has been weak. The upward correction on the daily timeframe is long overdue to end. We still don't see any reason for the pound to rise from a long-term perspective. Donald Trump's actions are currently the only factor supporting the pound—specifically, his imposed sanctions and tariffs left and right. The market is ignoring all other aspects.

For March 25, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2331–1.2349, 1.2429–1.2445, 1.2511, 1.2605–1.2620, 1.2691–1.2701, 1.2796–1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119. The Senkou Span B line (1.2933) and Kijun-sen line (1.2948) may also serve as signal sources. It is recommended to place a Stop Loss at breakeven when the price moves 20 pips in the right direction. Note that the Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals.

On Tuesday, no important or noteworthy events are scheduled in the UK, and only the New Home Sales report in the U.S. can be considered somewhat relevant. Thus, the macroeconomic background will be nearly absent. Therefore, high volatility is unlikely. A trending intraday move is also unlikely. The British pound will likely continue to drift downward in a sluggish correction.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on March 25: The Dollar Strengthened Against the Odds

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair initially showed an upward move, followed by a decline, making the entire trading day somewhat contradictory. Volatility remained low despite the release of six reports throughout the day. They all were PMI indices for the services and manufacturing sectors in Germany, the Eurozone, and the U.S. These reports contradicted one another. Take Germany, for example. The services PMI fell and came in below forecast, while the manufacturing PMI rose and beat expectations. In the Eurozone, the services index dropped and was below forecast, while manufacturing rose and exceeded expectations. In the U.S., the services PMI posted strong growth above forecast, while the manufacturing index fell below both the forecast and the 50.0 level. So, how should this mix of data be interpreted?

The market didn't bother too much with that question. As we've said, macroeconomic data is currently of little importance. The market continues to trade on "Donald Trump," awaiting his next round of tariffs, and is currently just undergoing a correction. This is why we are observing a sluggish decline in the pair. An upward move could resume anytime, even if it contradicts the daily and monthly timeframes. However, on the hourly chart, the trend has now shifted to bearish.

Among Monday's trading signals, we can highlight the bounce from the 1.0823 level and the Senkou Span B line. In the first case, traders could buy, and in the second, sell. Both trades were profitable and allowed for gains of at least 50 pips.

COT Report

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is dated March 18. As shown in the illustration, the net position of non-commercial traders remained bullish for a long time. The bears only recently gained a slight advantage, but now the bulls are back in control. Bearish positioning has quickly eroded since Trump assumed office and the dollar collapsed. We can't definitively say the dollar's decline will continue, and COT data reflects the sentiment of large players, which can shift rapidly in current conditions.

We still don't see any fundamental factors supporting euro strength, but there is now one powerful reason for dollar weakness. The pair may continue to correct for several weeks or months, but the 16-year downtrend won't reverse quickly.

Currently, the red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating a bullish trend. In the most recent reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group increased by 300 contracts, while the number of short positions fell by 46,000 contracts. As a result, the net position rose by 45,700 contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

The price is tilting downward on the hourly timeframe, and we fully support this movement. We expect the decline to resume in the medium term due to the divergence in ECB and Fed monetary policy. However, it's unclear how long the market will continue pricing in the "Trump factor." The recent upward movement looked more like a personal protest against Trump, and it's unclear where this will ultimately lead the pair—especially since more tariffs could still be announced. Traders ignore many news events and reports, and the dollar is being sold off at any opportunity.

For March 25, the following levels are relevant for trading: 1.0340–1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.0860) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0874). Ichimoku indicator lines may shift during the day and should be considered when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the intended direction—this will help protect against false signals.

Germany will release its Ifo Business Climate report on Tuesday, and the U.S. will publish New Home Sales data. Both reports are tertiary in importance and unlikely to influence market sentiment. We believe the current correction will continue, but the movement doesn't yet resemble the beginning of a new downtrend—not even on the hourly timeframe.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: PMI Indices and WSJ Insider Reports

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EUR/USD buyers attempted to extend a corrective move amid general weakness in the dollar. After a three-day rally, the U.S. dollar index temporarily retreated from local highs, allowing euro bulls to initiate a modest rebound toward the mid-1.08 area. However, the PMI releases and U.S. media reports quickly extinguished the upward impulse.

The PMI reports turned out to be mixed—though not disastrous—for the single currency. Germany's manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory (below the 50-point mark) but improved from 46.5 to 48.3, beating the 47.1 forecast. On the other hand, Germany's services PMI fell into the red: against expectations for a rise to 52.3, the index printed at 50.2. This brings it to the brink of contraction and marks a second consecutive monthly decline after peaking at 52.5 in January.

The eurozone-wide PMIs mirrored the German trend. The manufacturing index rose to 48.7 (forecast: 48.3), posting a third straight monthly increase, while the services index declined again for a third month, falling to 50.4 versus a 51.2 forecast.

What do the March PMI indices suggest? Due to their mixed nature, the data is unlikely to support a rate cut from the European Central Bank at its April meeting. Manufacturing showed modest improvement but remained in contraction, while services weakened but stayed in expansion territory. French PMIs came in above 50 but still in contraction. The contradictory picture weighed on both buyers and sellers of EUR/USD. More specifically, the PMIs failed to support the euro, and the correction quickly faded, with sellers regaining control.

During the U.S. session, the dollar index resumed its upward movement in response to news that Donald Trump may introduce more targeted tariffs than initially expected. Although not official, insider reports from The Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg were taken seriously by the market. The dollar index tested the 104 level again, recovering earlier losses, while EUR/USD hit a two-week low, falling into the 1.07 area.

According to WSJ and Bloomberg, the U.S. plans to introduce less extensive import duties than initially suggested. The White House has reportedly decided to focus on countries with a persistent trade imbalance with the U.S.—those that benefit more from trading with America than the U.S. does. Sources say that in addition to nearly all G20 nations, the list may include Mexico, Vietnam, and "several other countries."

Bloomberg insiders also noted that the tariffs will be "more targeted." Trump's administration is reportedly revising its tariff strategy and may avoid broad sectoral duties.

In short, if the reports are accurate, the White House has abandoned plans for broad-based tariffs and is instead preparing selective duties on around 15 countries based on their bilateral trade balances.

It's worth noting that Donald Trump, known for abrupt policy shifts, makes the final decision. Nevertheless, these leaks suggest that internal debate continues within the Trump administration regarding the April 2 tariffs.

Interestingly, despite these developments, traders largely ignored the sharp drop in the U.S. manufacturing PMI. Instead of rising to the projected 51.9, the index unexpectedly fell into contraction at 49.8. Meanwhile, the services PMI jumped to 54.3, its highest reading since December, after declining for two months.

Market participants focused on the fundamental factors favoring the dollar (and against the euro): the media leaks about targeted tariffs, conflicting eurozone PMI data, and the strong U.S. services PMI. Overall, this backdrop supports further EUR/USD downside.

From a technical perspective, the pair on the four-hour chart is positioned between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands indicator and remains below all Ichimoku lines (including the Kumo cloud), signaling a short-term bearish bias. The first downside target is 1.0770 (lower Bollinger Band on H4). The main target is 1.0730 (middle Bollinger Band on the D1 chart); a break below this level would open the door for EUR/USD sellers to test the 1.06 zone.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for March 24-27, 2025: sell below $3,032 (21 SMA - overbought)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading at 3,026, below the 21st SMA and below the 7/8 Murray level. We expect consolidation below this area in the coming hours.

After reaching a high of $3,058 and following a technical correction toward the psychological level of $3,000, gold has rebounded and is now consolidating below the 21st SMA, forming a bearish continuation pattern.

If there is a drop below 3,025, the outlook could be negative, and we could sell and expect gold to reach 6/8 Murray at 2,968 in the coming days.

The weekly pivot point is around 3,027. So, we believe that if the gold price consolidates below this area in the coming days, it could have a bearish sequence. We could then expect a technical correction to occur until the weekend.

On the other hand, if gold consolidates above 3,032, we could expect it to reach the last resistance around 3,046 (7/8 Murray), which will also be seen as an area to sell.

The eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so we believe a technical correction could occur in the coming days, before resuming its bullish cycle.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The levels I outlined were not tested during the first half of the day. The volatility seen immediately after the release of Japan's PMI data quickly faded, limiting the dollar's upward movement. There was also no significant pressure on the pair.

In the second half of the day, investors' attention will turn to the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States. Specifically, close attention will be paid to the PMI indexes for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the composite index. These indicators will provide crucial insights into the current state and near-term outlook of the US economy. Additionally, markets will closely monitor speeches by FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Michael S. Barr. Their statements regarding the future of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy could significantly impact the dollar's dynamics. If the FOMC rhetoric is hawkish, this may trigger strengthening of the US dollar against the yen.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 149.95 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.54 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 150.54, I'll exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 point pullback). Buying the pair today is reasonable within the context of a bullish correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.63 level, with the MACD in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could lead to a reversal upward. A rise to 149.95 and 150.54 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below the 149.63 level (red line on the chart), which would result in a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.06, where I'll exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair may occur at any time today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 149.95 level, with the MACD in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a reversal downward. A decline to 149.63 and 149.06 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually closing a position, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected price for setting Take Profit or manually closing a position, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to use the overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be extremely cautious when entering trades. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2935 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the pound and remained out of the market.

Weak data from the UK manufacturing sector were offset by strong figures in the services sector. Despite economists' concerns, the UK economy continues to show resilience, supported by domestic demand and the flexibility of the services industry. This contrast highlights structural changes in the British economy, where the services sector plays an increasingly important role. However, don't forget that the manufacturing sector still faces challenges, including rising raw material costs and a shortage of skilled labor, which will cap the pound's upward potential.

In the second half of the day, aside from closely watching US economic indicators, investors will focus on speeches by two key FOMC members: Raphael Bostic and Michael S. Barr. Their tone will be a key factor for the further trajectory of the British pound. Only hawkish statements signaling readiness for more aggressive monetary policy could renew pressure on the pound. Otherwise, in the absence of strong signals, the pound may continue to rise—especially if US economic data disappoints and fails to support the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.2963 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the 1.3007 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3007, I'll exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback from that level). Pound strength today may continue as part of an uptrend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2935 level, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2963 and 1.3007 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2935 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2894, where I'll exit shorts and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Sellers are likely to step in if US data proves strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2963 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop to the opposite levels of 1.2935 and 1.2894 can then be expected.

Chart Elements Explained:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – the estimated price to set Take Profit or manually secure profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – the estimated price to set Take Profit or manually secure profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market sentiment is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0842 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.0842 shortly afterward, when the MACD was in the overbought zone, triggered Scenario #2 for selling, which resulted in a modest 10-point decline.

Rather mediocre PMI data from the eurozone failed to support further euro growth against the dollar, though a major decline also did not materialize. Despite a few positive reports, the overall picture remains mixed. The manufacturing sector continues to struggle, while the services sector shows only moderate growth. This raises doubts about the European Central Bank's ability to keep rates unchanged at their current levels.

At the same time, the US dollar is supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric and expectations of a stricter stance on interest rates. Today, investors will closely watch macroeconomic data to assess the state of the US economy and the Fed's likely policy direction. Stronger-than-expected PMI figures could reinforce expectations of a hawkish Fed and support the US dollar. Speeches from Bostic and Barr will also attract market attention as investors look for clues about the Fed's future rate plans. If FOMC members advocate for maintaining high rates to fight inflation, this could further strengthen the dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the 1.0860 level (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.0910. At 1.0910, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point reversal. Euro growth today is only likely after dovish comments from Fed officials. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0815 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0860 and 1.0910 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.0815 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0766, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair could return if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0860 level while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0815 and 1.0766 can then be expected.

Chart Elements Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – it's important to use overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large positions.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan—such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market sentiment are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 24th (Review of Morning Trades)

.In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2968 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.2968 provided a good entry point for selling the pound, which resulted in a 20-point decline. The technical picture for the second half of the day was slightly revised.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

Weak UK manufacturing sector data was offset by strong performance in the services sector. In the second half of the day, alongside similar indicators from the US, we expect speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Michael S. Barr. Only a hawkish tone from policymakers could bring back pressure on the pound. Otherwise, the pair may continue to rise—especially if US data is strong. In the event of a bearish reaction to those remarks, only a false breakout around 1.2928 will serve as a good entry point for long positions with the goal of recovering to the 1.2968 resistance, which has not yet been breached. A breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom will offer a new entry point for long positions aiming to update 1.3010, bringing back a bullish market. The furthest target will be the 1.3056 area, where I plan to take profit. If GBP/USD declines and bulls show no activity around 1.2928 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will increase significantly, potentially affecting the pair's bullish prospects. In this case, a false breakout near 1.2888 would be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.2846 support level, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

The pound rose significantly, but sellers are still present, as was clearly shown around the 1.2968 area. This level remains the focal point for the second half of the day. A false breakout there, similar to the scenario discussed earlier, will provide an entry point for selling with the target at 1.2928. A breakout and retest of this range from bottom to top will trigger stop-loss orders and open the path to 1.2888, which would already represent a notable correction. The furthest target will be the 1.2846 area, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level may stop the development of the bullish market. If demand for the pound persists in the second half of the day and bears fail to act around 1.2968, then it would be better to postpone short positions until the pair tests resistance at 1.3010. I will sell there only on a false breakout. If there's no downward movement there either, I'll look for short positions on a rebound from 1.3056, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) for March 11:

There was an increase in both long and short positions, with long positions growing significantly more, making the advantage of pound buyers more apparent. This is also reflected on the GBP/USD chart. Considering positive trends in the UK economy and the Bank of England's relatively gradual approach to interest rate cuts, it's possible that GBP/USD will continue rising. The upcoming Fed meeting may further weaken the dollar, so pound buyers have little to worry about for now. However, traders should still be cautious of corrections that may arise on the path to new local highs. The latest COT report shows that long non-commercial positions increased by 12,920 to 94,786, while short non-commercial positions grew by only 2,301 to 65,593. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 10,925.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which indicates a market correction.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are based on the author's analysis on the H1 chart and differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2950 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (used to determine the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period – 50, marked in yellow on the chart; • Moving Average. Period – 30, marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9; • Bollinger Bands. Period – 20; • Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders; • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 24th (Review of Morning Trades)

.In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0856 and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and see what happened. The price rose and formed a false breakout at that level, providing a good entry point, which led to a 20-point decline. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has not changed.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

Rather lackluster PMI activity data from the eurozone prevented the euro from continuing its rise against the dollar. In the second half of the day, we await US data on the manufacturing PMI, the services PMI, and the composite PMI. Speeches from FOMC members Raphael Bostic and Michael S. Barr are also expected, which may be interpreted in favor of dollar strength. In case of strong statistics and further correction in the pair, only a false breakout around the support at 1.0806 will serve as a signal for new EUR/USD purchases, aiming to build a bullish market with a target of retesting 1.0856. A breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom would confirm a correct entry point for long positions, targeting 1.0905. The furthest target will be the 1.0952 area, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0806, which is more likely, the pair will likely continue correcting. In that case, sellers may push the price down to 1.0770. Only after forming a false breakout there will I consider buying the euro. I plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0743, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers showed themselves, and in case of a negative market reaction to Fed officials' statements, only a false breakout near 1.0856—similar to the scenario discussed above—will allow for short positions to be opened with a target at the 1.0806 support area. A breakout and consolidation below this range would offer another opportunity for selling, with a move toward 1.0770, which on its own would represent a significant correction. The furthest target will be the 1.0743 area, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD moves higher in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive around 1.0856, buyers may trigger a new upward move. In this case, I will postpone short positions until the pair tests the next resistance at 1.0905. I will sell there only after an unsuccessful breakout. If there is no downward movement at that level either, I will consider opening short positions on a rebound from 1.0952, targeting a downward correction of 30–35 points.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) for March 11:

There was an increase in long positions and a notable reduction in shorts. Interest in buying the euro continues to grow, while sellers are rapidly exiting the market. Germany's fiscal stimulus policy and its strong support from the ECB are boosting demand for the euro. Additionally, progress in resolving the conflict in Ukraine supports the single currency. The upcoming Fed meeting may weaken the dollar even further if the regulator adopts a more dovish stance than expected. The COT report showed that long non-commercial positions rose by 3,424 to 188,647, while short positions dropped by 19,772 to 175,557. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 8,097 in favor of the bulls.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is taking place around the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which indicates a sideways market.

Note: The author considers the moving averages on the H1 chart, which differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0849 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (used to identify the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period – 50, marked in yellow on the chart; • Moving Average. Period – 30, marked in green on the chart; • MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9; • Bollinger Bands. Period – 20; • Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements; • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders; • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders; • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 24/03/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

S&P 500: from euphoria to collapse

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The wave of optimism that swept through US stock markets following Donald Trump's re-election turned out to be short-lived. Euphoria quickly gave way to a deep correction amid escalating trade conflicts.

The introduction of new tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico triggered panic among investors. On March 3, US markets experienced the largest sell-off of the year, with the S&P 500 erasing all post-election gains, sliding back to 5,660.

Fundamental risks deepen the decline

The outlook for the US economy continues to worsen. The Atlanta Fed slashed its forecast for real GDP growth from +2.3% to -2.8% YoY. Meanwhile, warnings of an impending recession are becoming more frequent.

Warren Buffett has openly criticized Trump's trade policies, calling tariffs a "tax on consumers." Jeremy Grantham predicts a collapse of US stock indices, while Ray Dalio goes as far as to describe the economic outlook as a potential "heart attack," citing the growing budget deficit and mounting debt crisis.

Technical picture: support on the brink, trend under threat

On Monday, the S&P 500 is trading near 5,770, confirming a significant correction from its recent record highs. The index has broken below the upward trendline formed in January and dropped beneath the critical 5,720 support level, which now acts as resistance.

Current key technical levels:

Support: 5,600 – a psychologically important level. A break below it could open the way to 5,450 and 5,300.

Resistance: 5,720 (near-term), followed by 5,840.

Indicators: the RSI is heading into oversold territory, signaling a possible short-term bounce. However, MACD and moving averages still confirm a bearish momentum.

Trading ideas:

Short-term buy from 5,600 targeting 5,720, with a stop-loss at 5,550.

Sell on bounce from the 5,720–5,740 zone targeting 5,450, then 5,300 – particularly if negative news flow continues.

Mid-term strategy: hold short positions with a target of 5,300 and below, if trade tensions escalate and macroeconomic data deteriorate.

Fundamental risks: default fears and inflationary pressures

The main driver of the current correction is a fundamental shock caused by the sudden shift in US trade policy. The Trump administration's renewed protectionist push has already led to higher import costs, intensifying inflationary pressures.

According to Yale University, tariffs are costing the average American around $2,000 per year – effectively functioning as an invisible tax.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve is caught in a bind between a slowing economy and the need to contain inflation. GDP contraction, a ballooning budget deficit (now at 7.5% of GDP), and the possibility of tighter monetary policy are all contributing to investor anxiety.

The capital market is increasingly seen as overheated, especially given high debt levels and falling corporate earnings. Much of the recent bull market has been driven not by solid fundamentals, but by the Fed's ultra-loose monetary policy.

S&P 500 enters the danger zone

The combination of technical weakness and mounting fundamental risks leaves the market vulnerable to further declines. Over the coming weeks, the market's fate will likely be determined by new trade decisions from the White House and the Fed's response.

Traders should proceed with extreme caution – we're entering a phase of elevated turbulence.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Weekly Technical Analysis for March 24–29: GBP/USD Currency Pair

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Trend Analysis

This week, the price from the 1.2915 level (closing of the last weekly candle) may start rising toward the target of 1.3013 – the upper fractal (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue moving upward toward the target of 1.3117 – the 76.4% retracement level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Weekly Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Monthly chart – upward

Conclusion based on comprehensive analysis: upward movement.

Overall forecast for the GBP/USD weekly candle: the price will most likely follow an upward trend during the week, with no lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday – upward movement) and a possible upper shadow (Friday – downward pullback).

Alternative scenario: the price from the 1.2915 level (closing of the last weekly candle) may start rising toward the 1.3013 upper fractal (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may pull back to 1.2922 – the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Weekly Technical Analysis for March 24–29: EUR/USD Currency Pair

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

This week, the market may start moving upward from the level of 1.0815 (closing of the last weekly candle), targeting 1.0957 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue rising toward 1.1002 – the historical resistance level (light blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Weekly Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Monthly chart – upward

Conclusion based on the comprehensive analysis: upward movement.

Overall forecast for the EUR/USD weekly candle: the price will most likely show an upward trend throughout the week, with no lower shadow on the weekly white candle (Monday – upward movement) and a potential upper shadow (Friday – pullback).

Alternative scenario: the pair may start moving upward from the level of 1.0815 (closing of the last weekly candle), targeting 1.0957 – the upper fractal (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may pull back downward to 1.0890 – resistance line (bold white line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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At the start of the week, following the release of a weaker Japanese PMI, the yen came under pressure. This, combined with news of narrower and less aggressive retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, has boosted investor confidence and reduced demand for the yen as a safe haven. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates are capping deeper losses for the currency.

According to preliminary estimates, the Au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan fell from 49.0 to 48.3 in March, marking the lowest reading since March 2024 and a nine-month low. It also highlights a decline in the services sector, which contracted for the first time in five months. These data weigh on the yen.

Nevertheless, there are factors supporting the yen and preventing deeper losses—such as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirming the central bank's readiness to adjust its easing policy if inflation reaches the target level. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also stated that the Bank will closely monitor economic and price developments. This signals that the BoJ will act in accordance with economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast but maintained its outlook for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. This limits the U.S. dollar's recovery and caps USD/JPY movement near the psychological level of 150.00.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of U.S. business activity indices and speeches from FOMC members, which may provide additional momentum for USD/JPY. However, the market's primary focus will be on Friday's releases of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY bulls need to break above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which lies just above the psychological level of 150.00. If this level is breached, spot prices may rise toward the 151.00 round figure and then to the monthly high near 151.30.

However, considering that oscillators on the daily chart have yet to show positive momentum, the Asian session low around 149.33 is currently acting as immediate support ahead of the 149.00 round number. A drop below this level could trigger a break of the 148.60 area, opening the door to deeper losses, with an accelerated decline toward last week's swing low around 148.20 and eventually toward the 148.00 round level, or potentially lower.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. March 24th. A New Week – New Opportunities

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On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 200.0% correction level at 1.0857 and fell to the support zone of 1.0781–1.0797. A rebound from this zone worked in favor of the euro and initiated a move back toward the 1.0857 level. Another rebound from 1.0857 would open the way for a return to 1.0781–1.0797, while a firm consolidation above 1.0857 would bring bulls back into the market and allow for growth toward 1.0944.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave broke the previous wave's peak by just a few points, and the last downward wave broke the prior low, though not very confidently. Thus, the current wave structure still points to a bullish trend, but it could soon reverse, as bulls seem to be running out of momentum. Donald Trump's tariffs have exerted heavy pressure on the dollar in recent weeks, but that won't last forever.

There was no news background on Friday. The upcoming week is also expected to be relatively uneventful in terms of news and events. There's little interest in the Eurozone, and in the U.S., the GDP report and durable goods orders will draw the most attention. Today, business activity indices will be released across several countries, but they're unlikely to set the tone for the week. The bears remain too weak, and only strong, impactful news could support them. Even the Federal Reserve didn't help the dollar much last week. In my view, the key factor remains Donald Trump's foreign and trade policy. Traders continue to sell the dollar in reaction to every news headline, and I see no reason for them to change this behavior. The U.S. President may soon start a trade war with the European Union and India, so the situation is likely to worsen. The U.S. dollar could enter a new wave of sell-offs, and its popularity no longer matters—nor does its status as the "world reserve currency."

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after forming another bearish divergence and dropped to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the euro and initiate growth toward the 76.4% correction level at 1.0969. A close below 1.0818 would suggest further decline toward the 50.0% level at 1.0696.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 305 Long positions and closed 46,030 Short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has returned to being bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 189,000, while Short positions are down to 129,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players were offloading the euro, but for the past 6 weeks, they've been reducing Shorts and increasing Longs. The difference in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed continues to support the U.S. dollar, but Trump's policy remains a more influential factor for traders, as it could push the FOMC toward a dovish stance and even trigger a recession in the U.S. economy.

News calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone:

Eurozone – German Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC) Eurozone – German Services PMI (08:30 UTC) Eurozone – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (09:00 UTC) Eurozone – Eurozone Services PMI (09:00 UTC) U.S. – S&P Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC) U.S. – S&P Services PMI (13:45 UTC)

The March 24 economic calendar includes six notable entries. Market sentiment is likely to be influenced by the news flow throughout Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Short positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.0944 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.0857 and 1.0797. Both targets were reached. New short positions will be possible after a rebound from 1.0857 with targets at 1.0781–1.0797 and 1.0734. Long positions could be considered after a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, or after a close above 1.0857 with a target at 1.0944.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market at crossroads: falling Dow Transports and rising Europe

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S&P 500 rally masks warnings from transport front

While the broader US equity market shows signs of recovery, a warning light for investors continues to flash — the Dow Jones Transportation Average is signaling growing concern about the health of the economy.

Breather after slide

Last week, the S&P 500 posted a modest gain, snapping a four-week losing streak. That offered investors a sliver of cautious optimism: the benchmark index began to claw back losses after entering correction territory, having fallen more than 10% from its February high.

Transport sector stalls

The picture looks markedly different in the transport sector. The Dow Jones Transportation Average has extended its decline, deepening the downtrend that began in November. Losses now exceed 17% from the peak. The index — which includes airlines, trucking companies, railroads, and logistics giants — has come under particularly heavy pressure.

Macro-level warning signs

The slump in transportation points to deeper economic anxieties. One driver is growing uncertainty around US tariff policy. Investors remain unsure how trade decisions under Donald Trump's administration will affect future growth.

Additional pressure came from the Federal Reserve, which lowered its US growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.7%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called the current level of uncertainty "unusually high."

Blows to key players

Since the start of 2025, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has fallen about 8% — twice the drop seen in the S&P 500 over the same period. The decline has been broad-based: FedEx shares are down 18%, and UPS has dropped nearly 9%. FedEx took a particularly hard hit on Friday after it cut its full-year financial outlook.

Transport weakness clouds market optimism

Although the overall market is showing signs of stabilization, weakness in the transportation sector serves as a reminder: the recovery may not be as robust as it appears. And as trucks, trains, and planes stall, investors are watching macro signals closely, trying to discern the true direction of the US economy.

Carrier and airline stocks plunge

The transportation sector continues to suffer losses. Shares of ground freight operators Landstar and JB Hunt Transport Services have plunged more than 12%. However, the hardest blow has landed on airlines — especially amid a recent wave of downward earnings revisions. Since the start of 2025, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have shed over 20%, while American Airlines has dropped nearly a third, down 35% year-to-date.

Barometer of consumer activity

The downturn in the transport sector is more than just a snapshot of corporate pain — it is a vital gauge of economic sentiment. As Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, points out, the Dow Jones Transportation Average reflects the movement of goods across the country, which is directly linked to consumer spending levels.

According to Maley, the index's decline confirms the weakness seen in the macro data and reinforces the more pessimistic tone on Wall Street.

Dow Theory: troubling index duo

Some investors do not view the transport index in isolation — they assess it alongside the Dow Jones Industrial Average, in line with classic Dow Theory. That principle holds that the market is truly strong only when both indices advance in tandem. But the current picture tells a different story.

The Industrial Dow is down 1% year-to-date and has fallen roughly 7% from its December highs. Paired with the sharp drop in the transport index, this presents a worrying signal: a clear sign that the economic recovery is stalling.

Russell 2000 slips: small business worries

It is not just Dow Transports showing weakness. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap US companies — typically the most sensitive to domestic economic shifts — is also in the red. Since November, it has lost over 15% from its one-year peak.

This signal carries weight: small businesses are often the first to feel the chill of a slowdown. When they are hurting, it is a sure sign that the economic engine is losing steam.

Semiconductor slump: chips under pressure

Fresh warning signs are flashing from the tech sector. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index is down more than 22% from its July high. That is especially notable given that chips power everything from smartphones to cars — and the semiconductor industry is widely viewed as a leading indicator of the broader economy's health.

Awaiting fresh data: pivotal week for market analysts

The coming days promise to be eventful for market participants. Several key reports are set to shed light on the current state of the US economy. Among them are updated consumer sentiment and confidence indices, which will reveal how resilient American optimism remains amid market turbulence.

Particular attention will center on March 28, when a crucial inflation indicator — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — is released. Its publication could significantly sway interest rate expectations and the future path of the Fed's monetary policy.

Tariff jitters: countdown begins

Investors remain closely attuned to developments in US trade policy. The Trump administration has announced a new round of retaliatory tariffs, potentially set to take effect as early as April 2. The measures are being framed as an effort to level the playing field in global trade.

But until that deadline, markets may experience heightened volatility. Shares of companies tied to global supply chains are particularly sensitive. According to Rick Meckler, partner at investment firm Cherry Lane Investments, transport sector stocks are likely to remain the most volatile during this period of uncertainty.

Europe rises: copper and stimulus drive gains

While US markets wrestle with mixed signals, European equities are posting cautious gains. On Monday, the pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.6% by mid-morning GMT, driven by strength in mining stocks — the SXPP sub-index climbed 2.6% following a jump in copper prices.

Investors bet on commodities

Investor interest in mining companies also found support in research: JPMorgan upgraded its sector rating — from underweight to overweight. The move signals a growing view that commodity producers may offer a safe haven amid a shaky global economy.

Germany's fiscal push sparks market optimism

Adding fuel to the rally, Berlin approved plans for a massive increase in public borrowing, aimed at bolstering growth in Europe's largest economy. The move reinforced confidence that the eurozone is ready to take bold action against the risk of an economic slowdown.

Trade tensions mount: investors poised for action

Financial markets are holding their breath as they await clarity from the White House. Donald Trump has pledged to introduce a new round of retaliatory tariffs on April 2, and Wall Street is watching the developments with growing unease. Investors are trying to gauge how these measures might disrupt global supply chains and how deeply they could dent corporate profits.

Market awaits PMI data

As trade headlines dominate the narrative, a key batch of macroeconomic data looms large. On Monday, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings will be released for France, Germany, and the eurozone as a whole. These figures will offer a glimpse into how resilient European businesses remain amid rising external risks.

PMIs are traditionally seen as a barometer of economic health, especially in the manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to fluctuations in global demand.

Bayer hit hard: jury delivers stinging verdict

Meanwhile, one of Europe's largest industrial giants — Bayer — has been thrust into the spotlight amid a legal firestorm. The company's shares tumbled 6.6% after a US jury ordered it to pay a staggering $2.1 billion in a lawsuit over its popular Roundup herbicide.

The plaintiff claimed that the use of the product caused the development of cancer. The ruling marks yet another chapter in a string of high-profile legal battles Bayer has faced since acquiring Monsanto, the maker of the controversial herbicide.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Financial wars: oil, gas, and sanctions in great power game

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In the world of finance, every day is a battle for market dominance. Just as traders celebrate rising prices, the tides can turn in an instant. On Friday, natural gas futures surged, giving bulls something to cheer about, while crude oil failed to deliver a similar performance.

Once again, the New York Mercantile Exchange became the stage for sharp market moves. April futures on natural gas reminded traders of their potential, rising 0.48% to reach $3.99 per million BTUs. Although the session's high fell short of expectations, solid support at $3.866 and resistance at $4.259 reinforced confidence that the market had not made its final move yet.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index—measuring the greenback against a basket of six major currencies—also emerged as a winner. At the time of writing, the index was up 0.28%, reaching 103.79. For many traders, moves in the dollar index serve as a reliable signal: when the dollar strengthens, commodities like oil and gas tend to face pressure. But such conditions often create strategic entry points for savvy market participants.

WTI crude oil did not share the same momentum. On the NYMEX, May WTI futures slipped 0.40% to $68.34 per barrel. The European session added to the gloom, dragging the price down a further 0.07% to $68.02. Key support and resistance were holding at $66.09 and $68.61, respectively.

Brent futures traded on ICE were also under pressure, down 0.19% to $71.86 per barrel.

On Thursday, Washington added fuel to the fire by announcing fresh sanctions against China-bound Iranian oil shipments. The latest measures targeted independent refinery Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical and several vessels supplying Iranian crude to China. It marked the fourth wave of sanctions since February, when the US renewed its maximum pressure campaign against Tehran.

Due to increased shipping restrictions, Iranian oil is now reaching China via more complex and expensive routes. But Chinese traders appear largely unfazed. According to local sources, companies are simply reorganizing logistics and continuing to import.

February was a particularly strong month for Iran: Chinese imports of Iranian oil hit 1.43 million barrels per day, up sharply from 898,000 in January. Much of this oil, notably, is officially labeled as Malaysian crude, a testament to the creativity of global trade networks.

Throughout February and March, the US ramped up sanctions on Iran and Russia, with a clear focus on energy exports. While the sanctions aim to curb supply, they may also create trading opportunities for market participants willing to navigate the risks.

On February 4, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order reinstating the maximum pressure policy on Iran. Just three weeks later, on February 24, another round of sanctions was announced blacklisting 30 individuals and tankers linked to Iran's oil sector. Then, on March 13, the list grew again with 13 more tankers and 18 additional companies and individuals added.

Yet Iran's oil production has proven resilient. Output in February remained steady at 4.8 million barrels per day, the same as January. This is a notable jump from 3.7 million barrels in January 2023, suggesting Iran has found ways to sidestep US restrictions.

The situation with Russian energy exports is also intensifying. Until March 12, foreign companies were allowed to purchase Russian oil and gas via sanctioned banks like Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, and Sovcombank. These transactions were enabled by a renewable general license that had been extended every two months. However, this time, the US chose not to renew the license.

Analysts, including those at CBS, do not expect the new measures to significantly impact Iranian or Russian oil exports in the short term. However, the political tension from Washington may lend support to oil prices. According to CBS estimates, ending the license could boost oil prices by $5 per barrel. Still, Brent saw only a modest increase between March 12 and 20, inching up from $70.9 to $71.1.

Should the US eventually ease restrictions on Russia's financial sector, payment issues related to Russian energy could become a thing of the past. But for now, that scenario remains a distant possibility.

Despite seemingly stable output figures, the oil market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Even modest price moves could open doors for long-term trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin and Ethereum show signs of revival

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Bitcoin and Ethereum are back in recovery mode after traders took a pause over the weekend.

While the latest movement hints at a return of bullish sentiment, it is still too early to talk about a full-fledged uptrend. Both assets remain within descending correction channels and have not yet re-entered a technical growth phase. We will take a closer look at the technical picture below.

But first, let us touch on a noteworthy development. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released the seventh edition of its Balance of Payments Manual (BPM7), in which it formally includes digital assets—such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies—into the structure of the balance of payments. Classified as non-produced assets, these digital instruments are now part of global economic statistics under the IMF's updated standards. Countries are encouraged to adopt both the revised and original standards by 2029–2030. The IMF also pledged to support implementation of BPM7 by providing additional guidance and technical assistance upon request.

This move marks a significant milestone in recognizing the growing role of digital assets in the global economy. Including cryptocurrencies in the balance of payments will allow countries to more accurately track and account for digital asset transactions. In turn, this may pave the way for more effective regulation and taxation across the crypto space.

Adopting the new standards will no doubt require countries to adapt their statistical systems and train personnel. However, with the IMF's promised support, the transition could be smoother and encourage broader, more consistent use of BPM7 globally. The step underscores the commitment of international financial institutions to stay current with the rapidly evolving digital economy.

As noted earlier, from a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has a real shot at returning to a bullish trend in the short term, but it first needs to overcome several critical resistance levels. The fact that Ethereum has reclaimed the $2,000 mark also adds weight to a more optimistic outlook.

Looking at Bitcoin, buyers are now targeting a move back to $87,000, which could open the door toward $89,500 and then $91,600. A breakout above the latter would suggest a full return to a medium-term bull market. On the downside, support is expected at $85,000. If BTC drops below that zone, it could quickly fall toward $83,200, with the next major support at $81,500.

For Ethereum, a solid hold above $2,082 sets the stage for a push to $2,123. The key target lies at the yearly high of $2,168. A successful breakout above that level would signal a return to a medium-term bullish cycle. If ETH slips lower, buyers are expected to defend the $2,027 area. A drop below this support could send the asset down to $1,989, with $1,954 as the next major floor.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. March 24th. The British Pound Starts the New Week at Full Speed

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday and even consolidated below the 1.2931 level. However, the drop was short-lived, as the bears on the pound remain extremely weak. Last week, they were also countered by the Bank of England, which unexpectedly took a fairly hawkish stance on monetary policy. Thus, Donald Trump's tariffs plus the Bank of England's position equals renewed growth for the pound. The pair's consolidation above 1.2931 allows us to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3003.

The wave situation is absolutely clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave broke the last peak. Therefore, the formation of a bullish trend continues. The pound has recently shown strong growth, and the news background hasn't been strong enough to justify such aggressive bullish action. However, most traders are unwilling to buy the dollar regardless of economic data, since Donald Trump keeps imposing new tariffs that are likely to harm U.S. economic growth as well as that of other global economies.

There was no news background on Friday, and there won't be much during the current week either. Both the UK and the U.S. will release various reports, but none are top-tier. The U.S. GDP report will attract the most attention. In my view, this week Donald Trump will continue to steer the market. In recent weeks, traders have reacted less actively to news from the White House, but there hasn't been much tariff-related news either. Trump continues to promote April 2 as "America's Liberation Day," so there's no reason to doubt that new tariffs will be announced soon. And the U.S. dollar has already started the week with a fresh decline—even in the absence of any news background. Trump is doing everything to ensure the American currency continues to weaken.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise. I am not expecting a strong drop in the pound unless the pair closes below the ascending channel. The CCI indicator has formed another bearish divergence, which, like the previous one, has not yet impacted the bulls' position. A rebound from the 1.2994 level allows us to expect a modest decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861, though the bears may not even reach that point.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,155, while the number of shorts rose by 946. Bears have lost their market advantage. The spread between long and short positions now stands at nearly 30,000 in favor of the bulls: 96,000 versus 67,000.

In my opinion, the pound still has room for a long-term decline, but recent developments may prompt a market reversal. Over the past three months, the number of long positions decreased from 98,000 to 96,000, while short positions fell from 78,000 to 67,000. More significantly, over the last seven weeks, longs have grown from 59,000 to 96,000, and shorts have decreased from 81,000 to 67,000. Let me remind you—that's seven weeks under Trump's leadership.

News Calendar for the UK and U.S.:

UK – Manufacturing PMI (09:30 UTC) UK – Services PMI (09:30 UTC) U.S. – S&P Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC) U.S. – S&P Services PMI (13:45 UTC)

Monday's economic calendar includes four entries, but traders have already made it clear from the morning that these won't significantly influence market sentiment. The impact of the news background on market mood will be weak today.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Short positions were possible from the 1.3003 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.2931 and 1.2865. The first target has been reached, the second has not. Long positions are possible upon consolidation above the 1.2931 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3003.

The Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart, and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for March 24

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Trump's tariff policy weighs on markets: what's next?

Investor frustration with the Trump administration's trade approach has triggered capital flight and negatively impacted the S&P 500. Hopes for more lenient tariff action briefly lifted market sentiment, but the threat of a full-scale trade war remains realistic.

For traders, this opens opportunities to capitalize on volatility: short-term pullbacks may offer attractive entry points, but it's crucial to account for long-term risks tied to evolving tariff policy. Read more at the link.

Index gains and the role of geopolitics

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all ended the session higher, supported by strong demand for mega-cap tech stocks. Meanwhile, the oil market remains under pressure due to the potential for US strikes on Iran. Yet, US equities are showing resilience in the face of negative geopolitical developments. For investors, this indicates a sustained appetite for high-tech firms, while oil may emerge as an additional factor influencing short-term price swings. Some near-term corrections are possible, but overall sentiment remains positive. Read more here.

Mild tariffs lift sentiment, but risks persist

US stocks closed modestly higher on Friday following reports of softer trade measures from the Trump administration. This shift helped improve investor sentiment, though major risks — including trade tensions and slowing global growth — continue to cloud the outlook.

This environment supports diversified investment strategies. Traders may want to focus on sectors less exposed to tariff uncertainty and on companies with strong fundamentals. Read more at the link.

InstaForex offers some of the best trading conditions for indices, stocks, and bonds — helping clients capitalize on market shifts and emerging trends.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis for GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/JPY, #Ethereum, #Litecoin – March 24th

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GBP/USD

Analysis: The daily chart of the British currency pair shows an ongoing bullish wave structure since January 13 of this year. The middle part of the wave (B) has been developing in recent weeks. The pair is forming a contracting flat pattern, which remains incomplete.

Forecast: Expect a sideways, flat tone in GBP's movement. Pressure on the lower support boundary is possible, followed by stabilization and potential for a bullish reversal. A resumption of upward momentum is more likely toward the weekend.

Potential Reversal Zones

• Resistance: 1.3180 / 1.3230
• Support: 1.2900 / 1.2850

Recommendations:

• Selling: No potential; likely to result in losses.
• Buying: May become the primary strategy once confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.

AUD/USD

Analysis: The bullish wave that began in February continues its formation. The middle corrective section (B) is still in progress and is taking shape as an extended flat correction.

Forecast: A downward tone is likely over the next couple of days, with pressure on the lower support boundary. Toward the weekend, volatility is expected to rise, followed by a possible trend reversal and price growth.

Potential Reversal Zones

• Resistance: 0.6370 / 0.6420
• Support: 0.6250 / 0.6200

Recommendations:

• Selling: Possible with reduced volume size within individual sessions until the first reversal signals.
• Buying: Can be considered after relevant signals appear near the support zone.

USD/CHF

Analysis: The ongoing bullish wave from August shows an incomplete corrective segment (B). The price is near the upper edge of a major support zone. A reversal wave structure must form before the next upward movement.

Forecast: Expect sideways movement with a downward bias in the coming days, potentially reaching support. Volatility may increase near the weekend, along with a potential bullish reversal.

Potential Reversal Zones

• Resistance: 0.8940 / 0.8990
• Support: 0.8750 / 0.8700

Recommendations:

• Selling: Possible with reduced volumes in select sessions.
• Buying: May be used after confirmed reversal signals near support from your trading system.

EUR/JPY

Analysis: The ongoing short-term bullish wave began in late February. Since early March, a sideways correction has been forming. The wave structure remains incomplete. The price is now near the lower boundary of a major daily timeframe reversal zone.

Forecast: Price is expected to fluctuate between opposing zones during the week. A downward move is more likely at the beginning of the week, with the possibility of a reversal and upward movement later.

Potential Reversal Zones

• Resistance: 163.20 / 163.70
• Support: 160.50 / 160.00

Recommendations:

• Selling: Can be used with fractional volumes during select sessions.
• Buying: Viable after confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone.

#Ethereum

Analysis: The dominant trend in Ethereum since December remains a downward wave. The wave is impulsive. After breaking strong support, the price entered sideways drift over the last two weeks, forming wave (B). It is moving along the lower boundary of the newly formed resistance zone.

Forecast: Expect sideways drifting to continue along the resistance zone in the next few days. Reversal signals may appear later, with higher volatility toward the end of the week. A brief breakout of resistance before reversal is possible.

Potential Reversal Zones

• Resistance: 2000.0 / 2050.0
• Support: 1560.0 / 1510.0

Recommendations:

• Buying: Low potential; likely to result in losses.
• Selling: Becomes relevant after confirmed reversal signals appear near resistance.

#Litecoin

Analysis: Litecoin has been forming a downward wave model since February. A corrective wave (B) began on March 11. The price is forming a contracting flat, after which the decline is expected to resume.

Forecast: Expect a flat upward move over the next few days, potentially reaching the resistance zone. A renewed decline is expected closer to the weekend. Support outlines the lower boundary of the week's range.

Potential Reversal Zones

• Resistance: 100.00 / 102.00
• Support: 83.50 / 81.50

Recommendations:

• Buying: Suitable intraday, but potential is limited by resistance.
• Selling: Becomes the main strategy once reversal signals appear near resistance.

Notes: In Simplified Wave Analysis (SWA), all waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). Only the last incomplete wave is analyzed per timeframe. Dotted lines indicate expected price movement.

Important: The wave algorithm does not account for the duration of price movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Weekly Forecast Based on Simplified Wave Analysis: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, #Bitcoin, #Ripple – March 24th

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EUR/USD

Analysis:

The euro's primary pair continues the upward trend that began in early February. Quotes remain within a broad potential reversal zone. Over the past three weeks, the price has been forming a flat corrective pattern. Support is located along the lower edge of the reversal zone.

Forecast:

Expect the general sideways tone to persist over the week, with a higher probability of a downward move in the first days, followed by a potential shift and resumption of price growth toward calculated resistance.

Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 1.0960 / 1.1010 Support: 1.0740 / 1.0690

Recommendations:

• Selling: Can be applied with reduced volume size within specific sessions.
• Buying: Risky and potentially loss-making until reversal signals appear near the support zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

The short-term trend aligns with the global bullish trend. Since August last year, a bullish wave pattern has defined the direction. A corrective segment began in December and remains incomplete. Over the last three weeks, price has been moving sideways.

Forecast:

Expect a rise toward the resistance zone within 1–2 days. A reversal may form afterward. A trend shift is likely amid increased volatility closer to the weekend. A downward movement is expected no further than the support zone.

Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 150.00 / 150.50 Support: 146.80 / 146.30

Recommendations:

• Buying: Possible intraday with small volume size, targeting no higher than resistance.
• Selling: Consider small-volume trades only after confirmed reversal signals appear.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

Since December, GBP/JPY has followed a short-term bearish wave pattern. For the past two months, it has been forming wave (B), the middle section of a zigzag structure, which appears close to completion. The pair is now at the lower edge of a strong reversal zone.

Forecast:

A sideways move is expected at the start of the week, with a potential rise toward resistance. Increased volatility, reversal, and a return to the downward trend are more likely toward the weekend. Support defines the lower weekly range.

Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 193.70 / 194.20 Support: 191.00 / 190.50

Recommendations:

• Buying: Limited potential; close positions at the first sign of a reversal.
• Selling: Use confirmed reversal signals from your trading system to enter positions.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

The unfinished wave pattern remains bearish since February. The current segment represents corrective wave (B), still in progress. The price is trapped within a sideways corridor between reversal zones on different timeframes.

Forecast:

After a likely consolidation, a renewed decline toward the support zone remains possible. Toward the end of the week, expect bullish sentiment to resume, possibly reaching calculated resistance.

Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 1.4480 / 1.4530 Support: 1.4280 / 1.4230

Recommendations:

• Buying: Premature without confirmed reversal signals from your trading system near support.
• Selling: High risk; reduce volume size and exit at first signs of reversal.

#Bitcoin

Analysis:

Bitcoin continues to move downward within an ongoing bearish wave structure that began in July last year. The final segment (C) is currently forming. Price has broken through a strong support zone, which has now turned into resistance.

Forecast:

Expect continued decline throughout the week from the resistance zone toward the calculated support. Temporary pressure on the upper boundary of resistance is possible in the near term.

Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 87,500 / 88,500 Support: 73,500 / 72,500

Recommendations:

• Buying: Not recommended; potential is lacking and may lead to losses.
• Selling: Valid only after confirmed reversal signals near the resistance zone from your trading strategy.

#Ripple

Analysis:

Ripple quotes are in a cluster of strong reversal levels across multiple chart scales. The prevailing downward wave (B) that began this month is still unfolding. Once complete, the short-term bearish trend is expected to continue.

Forecast:

This week, expect the upward movement to end, followed by a reversal in the resistance zone and a renewed downward move. Support marks the lower boundary of the week's range.

Potential Reversal Zones Resistance: 2.5400 / 2.5900 Support: 2.2200 / 2.1700

Recommendations:

• Buying: May be used with reduced volume size in isolated sessions. Potential limited to resistance.
• Selling: Valid after confirmed reversal signals near the resistance zone.

Notes: In Simplified Wave Analysis (SWA), all waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). Only the most recent unfinished wave is analyzed on each timeframe. Dotted lines indicate projected movements.

Warning: The wave algorithm does not account for the duration of price movements over time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Falling Dow Transports, Gaining Europe: Market at Crossroads

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S&P 500 rally reveals warning signs on transport front

While the broader US stock market is showing signs of recovery, a warning light for investors is still flashing as the Dow Jones Transports signals growing concerns about the health of the economy.

Breathing easy after a fall

The S&P 500 gained some weight last week, snapping a four-week slide. That gave investors cause for cautious optimism as the benchmark index began to pare losses after earlier entering a correction phase, falling more than 10% from its February record.

Transportation Sector Stalls

The picture is quite different in the transportation sector: the Dow Jones Transportation Average continued to fall, deepening a downward trend that began with a peak in November. Losses have already exceeded 17% from their record high. The index, which includes airlines, trucking companies, railroads and logistics giants, has come under particularly strong pressure.

Macro-Level Alarm

The decline in the transportation sector points to deeper economic concerns. Among the reasons is the growing uncertainty over the US tariff policy. Investors are uncertain how the Donald Trump administration's trade decisions will affect future growth.

The Federal Reserve added to the negative mood by lowering its economic growth forecast for this year from 2.1% to 1.7%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called the current level of uncertainty unusually high.

Key Players Take a Hit

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has lost about 8% since the start of 2025, more than double the S&P 500's decline over the same period. And the decline is broad-based: FedEx shares have already fallen 18%, while UPS shares are down nearly 9%. FedEx took a particularly big hit on Friday, when the company revised its full-year financial guidance downward.

Behind the Scenes of the Recovery: Fragility on the March

While the broader market is showing signs of stabilization, the weakness in the transportation sector is a reminder that the recovery may not be as robust as we'd like. And while trucks, trains, and planes are stalling, investors are keeping a close eye on macroeconomic benchmarks to see where the U.S. economy is really headed.

Down: Carriers and Airlines in a Steep Dive

The transportation sector continues to lose altitude. Shares of ground freight carriers Landstar and JB Hunt Transport Services have both fallen more than 12%. But the hit to airlines has been even tougher, especially given the recent revisions to their financial forecasts. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have already lost more than 20% since the start of 2025, while American Airlines has fallen by almost a third — minus 35% since the beginning of the year.

Consumer Activity Barometer

The decline in the transportation sector is not just a snapshot of corporate problems, but an important indicator of economic sentiment. As Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, points out, the Dow Jones Transportation Average reflects activity in the domestic delivery sector, and therefore is directly linked to the level of consumer spending.

"The decline in the index confirms the weakness we are seeing in the macroeconomic data and reinforces the more pessimistic expectations on Wall Street," Maley said.

The Dow Theory: An Unsettling Duo of Indexes

Some investors do not look at the transportation index in isolation — they evaluate it in conjunction with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. This approach is classic Dow Theory, which says that a market is only truly strong when both indexes rise in tandem. But the reality is different.

The Dow Industrials is down 1% since the start of 2025, and about 7% from its December highs. Coupled with the sharp decline in the Transportation Index, this paints a worrying picture — confirmation that the economic recovery is stalling.

The Russell 2000 is also in the red: Small Business Worries

It's not just the Dow Transports that are showing weakness. The Russell 2000 Index, which tracks the smaller U.S. companies that are most sensitive to the health of the domestic economy, is also in deep decline. It's down more than 15% from its annual peak since November.

This signal is especially important: Small businesses are among the first to feel the effects of an economic slowdown. When they suffer, it's a sure sign that the economic engine is losing power.

Semiconductor Slump: Chips Under Pressure

There are new warning signs in the tech sector. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index has fallen more than 22% from its July peak. And it is the chips that underpin a wide range of modern products, from smartphones to cars. Therefore, the reaction of chip makers is often perceived as a leading indicator of the overall state of the economy.

Waiting for fresh data: the week in focus for analysts

The coming days promise to be eventful for market participants. Several important reports should clarify the current state of affairs in the US economy. Among them are updated indices of consumer sentiment and confidence, which will show how sustainable American optimism is against the backdrop of market turbulence.

Particular attention will be focused on March 28, when a key inflation indicator, the consumer expenditure index (PCE), will be released. Its publication can seriously affect interest rate expectations and the trajectory of monetary policy.

Tariff Jitters: The Countdown Has Begun

Investors are still keeping an eye on the trade agenda. The Trump administration has announced a new round of retaliatory tariffs that could come into effect as early as April 2. These measures are being positioned as an attempt to level the playing field in global trade.

But markets could be volatile until then. Stocks linked to global supply chains are particularly sensitive to such changes. According to Rick Meckler, a partner at Cherry Lane Investments, it is the transport sector that will remain the most volatile during this period of uncertainty.

Europe on the Rise: Copper and Stimulus Provide a Boost

While U.S. markets struggle with mixed signals, European stock markets are showing cautious gains. On Monday, the pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.6% by morning GMT, helped by a rise in mining shares — the SXPP sub-index rose 2.6%, helped by a jump in copper prices.

Investors are betting on commodities

The interest in mining companies was also supported by analytics: JPMorgan twice raised its rating on the sector - from underweight to above average. This move confirmed that investors are viewing commodity companies as a possible refuge in the unstable global economy.

Germany opens its wallet

An additional boost to European indices was given by Berlin's move: the German authorities approved a large-scale expansion of borrowing aimed at stimulating growth in Europe's largest economy. This decision strengthened the confidence of the markets that the eurozone is ready to actively fight the economic slowdown.

Trade passions: investors on a low start

Financial markets are holding their breath in anticipation of specifics from the White House. Donald Trump promised to introduce a new package of retaliatory trade tariffs on April 2, and now Wall Street is tensely watching the developments. Investors are trying to understand how these steps will affect global supply chains and how deeply they can hit corporate profits.

PMI under the microscope: Europe lays its cards on the table

While trade issues remain in the spotlight, an important block of macroeconomic data is looming on the horizon. On Monday, preliminary business activity indices (PMI) will be released in France, Germany and the eurozone as a whole. These figures will give an idea of how resilient European business is in the face of growing external risks.

PMIs are traditionally considered a barometer of economic health, especially in the manufacturing sector, which is particularly sensitive to changes in global demand.

A blow to Bayer: a loud court verdict

Meanwhile, one of the largest European concerns, Bayer, found itself at the epicenter of a stormy scandal. The company's shares fell sharply by 6.6% after the decision of an American jury, which ordered the concern to pay a colossal $2.1 billion in a lawsuit related to the popular herbicide Roundup.

The plaintiff claimed that the use of the drug caused the development of cancer. The decision is the latest in a series of difficult legal battles that Bayer has faced since acquiring Monsanto, the maker of a controversial herbicide.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US stock market on March 24: SP500 and NASDAQ gathering steam in light of news on tariffs

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Today, US and European stock futures are trading higher amid signs that the next round of tariffs from President Donald Trump may be more restrained than expected. Investors responded positively to reports of potential negotiations between the US and China, easing fears of a further escalation in the trade war. Markets also appear resilient to geopolitical risks, buoyed by expectations of continued stimulus measures from central banks. However, despite the optimistic sentiment, caution is still warranted due to ongoing risks related to trade disputes and the slowing pace of global economic growth.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 50 climbed, alongside a rise in US 10-year Treasury yields. Meanwhile, the Turkish lira weakened, as traders remained on edge following a volatile period sparked by nationwide protests.

Regarding tariffs, sentiment improved as the upcoming round of US trade restrictions — set for April 2 — is expected to be more targeted rather than broad-based. Still, traders remain wary of warnings from Chinese and Australian officials about large-scale disruptions to the global economy stemming from US trade policy.

Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers cautioned that the new US administration's approach may have a seismic impact on the global economy, while Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated that China is prepared for shocks that could exceed expectations.

News of more focused tariffs sparked a rally across Asian markets. However, anxiety remains high ahead of the official announcement of the measures, which are set to take effect next week. According to several officials, Trump plans to introduce reciprocal tariffs against select countries or blocs, while excluding others. As of now, the administration does not plan to implement industry-specific tariffs, contrary to Trump's previous hints.

Investors are also bracing for increased volatility in Turkish assets following the official arrest of a key opposition figure. Short selling has already been banned on many financial instruments in Turkey's stock market, suggesting expectations of continued market instability. The central bank held a technical meeting with commercial lenders on Sunday to prepare for volatility and has since imposed a short-selling ban on equities.

In commodities, oil prices remained stable as traders weighed the potential impact of additional US tariffs and the upcoming supply increase from OPEC+. Gold hovered near $3,022 per ounce, close to the all-time high reached on Thursday.

This week, traders will monitor economic activity data from Europe, the UK, and the US for signs that growth is slowing due to tariff uncertainty. Australia's inflation report is due ahead of US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — at the end of the week.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

The recovery is going on. Today, the primary goal for buyers will be to break through the nearest resistance at 5,715. This could pave the way for further gains and a potential move toward the next level at 5,740. A key priority for bulls is also to establish control above 5,766, which would strengthen their position. On the downside, if risk appetite weakens, buyers must defend the 5,692 area. A break below this level could quickly send the index back to 5,670 and open the path toward 5,645.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, gold prices remain low but are holding above the psychological level of $3000, which serves as an important support.

News that emerged over the weekend indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump is planning a narrower and more targeted agenda on reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. This has increased investors' appetite for risk assets, set a positive tone in equity markets, and consequently undermined demand for the precious metal today.

At the same time, U.S. delegations are engaged in talks with Ukrainian officials and are planning meetings with Russian representatives. Earlier this month, Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a 30-day pause in strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, which may help ease tensions in the region.

The U.S. dollar is hovering near a 1.5-week high reached last week.

However, expectations that economic slowdown caused by tariffs may force the Fed to resume rate cuts are also limiting the downside in gold prices. This creates uncertainty, and it would be prudent to wait for a more significant decline before opening new short positions.

Adding to the uncertainty is the tense situation in the Middle East: Israel continues its strikes on Gaza, while Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen launched a ballistic missile at Israel, though it was successfully intercepted. These developments increase the risk of further conflict escalation in the region.

Today, traders should pay close attention to the release of PMI data, which will provide fresh insight into the state of the U.S. economy and may impact commodities. Also in focus is the U.S. Core PCE Price Index, due to be published on Friday.

From a technical perspective, the $3000 level may attract buyers, but a break below it could trigger technical selling, pushing gold prices down toward the $2980–2978 area. If the correction continues, the next support lies at $2956–2954.

On the other hand, last week's all-time high near $3057–3058 could act as the nearest resistance. Given that the daily RSI has exited overbought territory, renewed buying may become the next trigger for bulls, opening the way for the continuation of the uptrend observed over the past three months.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.